Expected Win Total Machine – Week Zero

Here we go.

How many games will the Vols win this year? Our favorite way to find our what you really think is back: the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine launches today, and will be back every week throughout the season.

Enter your percentage guess for each game in the table below (something closer to 100 for Ball State, something closer to…not zero for Alabama or Georgia). Once you submit all your totals, you’ll get your expected win total for Tennessee’s regular season. We’ll keep tabs for the entire community and report back with how we’re all feeling later this week.

When we ran this after spring practice, our community total was 8.1 expected wins. I’m curious to see how that may have changed as we move toward game week.

Enjoy. Go Vols.

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HT
HT
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 7.3.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 99%

at Pittsburgh: 50%

vs Akron: 99%

vs Florida: 40%

at LSU: 35%

vs Alabama: 1%

vs UT-Martin: 99%

vs Kentucky: 55%

at Georgia: 5%

vs Missouri: 90%

at South Carolina: 65%

at Vanderbilt: 95%

HT
HT
3 months ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

Ha, I’m not sure that beating them once would be enough.

And these were all completely off the top of my head without any research whatsoever. But my recollection is that Mizzou is supposed to be terrible. I could be way off on that.

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 7.7.Your details:
vs Ball State: 99%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 10%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 70%
at South Carolina: 65%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

Honestly it’s lower than I expected. Personally I’m feeling 9 wins, but 8 is probably more reasonable.

Harley
Harley
3 months ago

Here is my optimistic assessment at the zero mark. Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 8.8.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 70%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 80%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 15%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 50%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 95%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 100%

HT
HT
3 months ago
Reply to  Harley

I’m in my late 40s and I don’t think I have EVER been 80% sure we were going to beat Florida. Maybe in 1990.

Harley
Harley
3 months ago
Reply to  HT

I am the eternal optimist and starved to beat the lizards… check back with me after Pittsburgh 😉

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 7.7.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 95%

at Pittsburgh: 60%

vs Akron: 90%

vs Florida: 55%

at LSU: 50%

vs Alabama: 15%

vs UT-Martin: 95%

vs Kentucky: 60%

at Georgia: 10%

vs Missouri: 80%

at South Carolina: 70%

at Vanderbilt: 93%

Tom Turley
Tom Turley
3 months ago

7.8 for me, lower than expected. Aside from the two redcoats, the only team I didn’t have us favored to beat was Pittsburgh (45%). However, Florida and LSU were just above the toss-up line (55%), which probably accounts for the low score. I’m still not sure about our defense, and I have a lingering case of Battered Vol Syndrome. Still hoping for 10 wins!

Tom Turley
Tom Turley
3 months ago
Reply to  Tom Turley

P.S. Should have said SEC “redcoats.” Not too worried about the Ball State Cardinals!

Caban
Caban
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 8.4.Your details:
vs Ball State: 95%
at Pittsburgh: 70%
vs Akron: 98%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 55%
vs Alabama: 35%
vs UT-Martin: 97%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 25%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 60%
at Vanderbilt: 95%

Caban
Caban
3 months ago
Reply to  Caban

For the record, I don’t do 100% picks as a rule… at least not until I see us playing a middle school. But here’s how I see things in descending order vis-a-vis upset potential. Ball State is probably better than Akron, which is probably worse than Tennessee Tech. Vandy gets the equivalent to Ball State treatment because they’ll have already played n entire SEC schedule and probably be 2-9 waiting for the season to wrap up. Missouri is going to struggle even if their defense is vastly improved… they may end up envying Vanderbilt’s QB room. Kentucky will be good,… Read more »

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 8.1.Your details:
vs Ball State: 98%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 65%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 15%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 55%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

Andrew Cooper
Andrew Cooper
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 8.0.Your details:
vs Ball State: 99%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 25%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 20%
vs Missouri: 75%
at South Carolina: 65%
at Vanderbilt: 85%

Drew
Drew
3 months ago

Your expected win total is 6.8.Your details:
vs Ball State: 80%
at Pittsburgh: 40%
vs Akron: 90%
vs Florida: 50%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 10%
vs UT-Martin: 90%
vs Kentucky: 50%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 60%
at Vanderbilt: 70%

I don’t really know anything about a lot of these teams, but I will say the last few years my preseason guess has been closer to 5.5 wins.