The NBA Draft is Thursday, and Kennedy Chandler finds himself in familiar territory for VFLs. In the latest mock drafts, Chandler’s most common landing spot is somewhere in the 20s:
Kennedy Chandler Mock Draft Projections
Yahoo: 20th, San Antonio
CBS: 22nd, Memphis
ESPN: 22nd, Memphis
SB Nation: 26th, Dallas
The Athletic: 27th, Miami
The Ringer: 27th, Miami
Bleacher Report: 29th, Memphis
USA Today: 38th, San Antonio (Round 2)
Sports Illustrated: 39th, Cleveland (Round 2)
A twentysomething pick would put him in the exact same range as the other three picks from the Rick Barnes era: Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer went 21st and 28th last year, and Grant Williams was 22nd in 2019. Throw in Tobias Harris at 19th in 2011, and it’s the approximate range for every Vol taken since Marcus Haislip went 13th in 2002.
Picks in the 20s can be a great friend to the viewer. These picks are slotted for playoff teams, looking for that extra push. For Chandler in this draft, Memphis, Dallas, and Miami are all teams who can talk themselves into the title conversation right away.
The Vols have just three Top 10 picks all time, and none since Dale Ellis in 1983. The program hasn’t necessarily produced guys with instant NBA expectations outside of Ellis, Bernard King (7th), and Allan Houston (11th). But the mid-to-late first round has been good to Tobias Harris and Grant Williams for sure.
It also became a building block for one-and-done players last year. Keon Johnson appeared in 37 games as a rookie, traded from the Clippers to Portland in the middle of the year. Jaden Springer saw action only twice, but a solid year in the G-League could push him back to an NBA roster with the Sixers in 2023. That route continues to provide a path for Barnes-era players like Admiral Schofield (38 games with Orlando this year).
As we’ve written about plenty over the last two months, it’s a gift to have one of your players land on a team that can compete for championships. Grant Williams went to a contender at 22 and found his way into the rotation for three playoff runs. Sometimes there’s also a space where a team is simply too good. Can Yves Pons play in the league? I think that answer can still be yes. Is he good enough to crack the Memphis rotation right now? So far, the answer is not yet.
For Kennedy Chandler, there could be immediate backup point guard opportunities on a playoff team, especially with the hometown Grizzlies picking at 22 and 29. Tennessee’s overall NBA pedigree continues to grow: if Chandler hits in the first round, he’ll be UT’s fourth selection there in the last four years. It took 35 years for the Vols to produce their four prior first round picks (Ellis, Houston, Haislip, Tobias). That’s pretty good progress.
And it’ll feel even better if Chandler lands on a team that gives us a chance to see him earn some playoff minutes.
Twenty-three years ago, Allan Houston was the last Vol to play rotation minutes in the NBA Finals. He did more than that: Houston would make the All-Star Game the next two seasons and play on the U.S. Olympic team. And he had already been responsible for getting the Knicks past the Miami Heat in round one:
The 1999 season was shortened by a lockout, and a 50-game regular season produced some strange playoff match-ups. That included the Knicks barely getting in as an eight seed, then dispatching the one-seed Heat on Houston’s shot. New York went all the way to the Finals from there, losing Patrick Ewing to injury along the way. Still, anything seemed possible, especially in the first year of a post-Jordan-Bulls league.
Standing in the way were the San Antonio Spurs, a fresh-faced Gregg Popovich making his first Finals appearance. The Spurs took the first two games with relative ease, sending the series to Madison Square Garden for the first time in five years.
In Game 3, Allan Houston exploded: 34 points, four assists, and an 89-81 victory. The stage was set for a compelling series.
But that would be as close as it got: San Antonio won Game 4 by seven, and closed out the Knicks behind 31 points from young Tim Duncan in Game 5. For the Knicks in particular, Houston’s heroics still represent a high point the franchise hasn’t come close to duplicating since.
Grant Williams is not Allan Houston. But he’s now closer to a ring than any rotation Vol in the NBA in these last 23 years. And not only was he vital in Game 7 against Milwaukee in round two, he was involved in a key sequence for Boston in Game 3 last night.
In the first two games, the matchup with Golden State was less ideal for Williams. He averaged 32 minutes in the Milwaukee series and 30 against Miami, but played just 16 minutes in Game 1 of the Finals and 21 minutes in Game 2.
He only got 20 minutes in Game 3, but he made the most of them.
The Celtics were up a dozen at halftime and pushed it to 14 early in the third quarter. It was still at nine midway through the period. That’s when one of the more unusual sequences I’ve ever seen unfolded: Steph Curry hit a three, and Al Horford was called for a foul for being in his landing area. Upon review, the foul was deemed flagrant, giving Curry a four-point play and the Warriors possession…and Otto Porter Jr. buried another three, giving Golden State a seven-point possession. Just like that, a nine point lead was two.
A Curry three actually put Golden State in front, but Boston rallied. The Celtics were back on top 89-86 with 90 seconds to play in the third. And that’s when Grant said hello:
Grant’s offensive rebound and free throw was immediately followed by his corner three, putting Boston back up seven. And his final putback with nine minutes to play put the Celtics back up double figures. All told, Grant finished with 10 points and 5 rebounds. Draymond Green, generally loud and specifically entangled with Williams earlier in the game, fouled out with two points and four rebounds in 35 minutes.
The Celtics are up 2-1, with Game 4 on Friday night. Williams has now appeared in 43 playoff games in his three-year career with the Celtics, moving into fourth place all-time at UT for NBA Playoff appearances:
Two years ago, Grant Williams entered Game 7 against Toronto with seven minutes to play. This was in the bubble, where things felt like they mattered more because there were fewer other sports to matter at the time. Gordon Hayward was hurt, and Daniel Theis was in foul trouble, so Williams got the call late. He fouled out Kyle Lowry, then missed both free throws, then got a piece of Fred VanVleet’s final three to secure a Boston win. If you’re a Vols & Celtics fan like me, it helped exorcise a demon or two from some Ryan Cline threes that just missed his fingertips.
Grant played 11.5 minutes per game in that second round series, just under 10 in the other two rounds. He played 11.4 in the opening round loss to Brooklyn last season.
Allan Houston made the playoffs six years in a row from 1996-2001, including a Finals appearance in 1999. But in the last 20 years, only Williams and three others have seen meaningful playoff action. C.J. Watson made four appearances off the bench from 2011-14. Josh Richardson has been four times, but hasn’t made it out of the first round since his rookie year.
Tobias Harris continues to carry the torch for consistency among post-Houston Vols. In an 11-year career, he’s made the playoffs five times, four in a row now with Philadelphia. He averages 37.5 minutes per game in the postseason and 17.5 points. But the Sixers struggle to break through to the conference finals, having been eliminated in round two in three of the past four years. And Tobias also carries our lone one-and-done success torch, at least for the moment, which means he simply didn’t have time to generate the same amount of memories as Watson, Richardson, or Grant.
Grant and his teams led the way on campus in that department. There was always this sense that his jersey would make its way to the rafters as a two-time SEC Player of the Year. When it did, we’d have conversations about Chris Lofton and other local legends.
But in year three with Boston, Grant started becoming more than just a rotation player with a game-saving sequence in Game 7 two years ago. His minutes increased, getting 24.4 per game in the regular season. The Celtics trimmed their rotation after an 18-21 start, then did so again at the trade deadline, and Williams stayed in it. His defense and three-point shooting improved significantly. And Boston surged to the two seed in the Eastern Conference.
When Grant was a rookie, sometimes he’d get switched onto guys like Anthony Davis. It was wild to watch him go against the best in the world, even if for just a possession.
Now, Grant has picked up Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in consecutive rounds. Not switched onto; he has been their primary defender when they’ve shared the floor.
Grant Williams final stat line defending Kevin Durant, per NBA tracking:
13:05 matchup time 70.2 possessions 18 PTS 6-20 FG 30.0 FG% 0-4 3PT 5 TO 3 BLK 2 shooting foulspic.twitter.com/StESeH6PGt
Grant Williams is officially one of the greatest steals of the 2019 draft. He fell to 22nd. Finished Game 7 with 27 points with amazing defense all series on Giannis, the best player in the world. Where do you think he goes in a re-draft? pic.twitter.com/xWpkxqfgy1
What you want for your favorite players is opportunity. Allan Houston was an all-star and played on an Olympic team; who knows if any current or future Vols in the NBA will climb that high. C.J. Watson carved out an impressive role as a reliable backup point guard for years, but didn’t always see the floor in closing time. Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris are getting those opportunities, but so far not on teams that have advanced past the second round.
All of a sudden, here’s Grant getting 31 minutes a night in the playoffs. Robert Williams is banged up, and maybe Boston’s ceiling would be higher with him on the floor right now if that wasn’t the case. Al Horford, 35 years old, turned back the clock earlier in the Milwaukee series with 30 points in Game 4. There are other good options.
But increasingly – in the present, not just an idea for the future – Grant Williams is on the floor for Boston’s most important possessions. He’s played his way into the opportunity to make a difference on both ends of the floor.
It’s what Milwaukee invited him to do in Game 7. After Jayson Tatum dropped 46 points in Game 6, the Bucks doubled down on their interior defense, and gave Grant the green light from the outside. You may recall, he started his rookie year by missing 25 consecutive threes.
You may not recall:
There are many, many fun facts from today. This one for some reason amused me.
Grant Williams will forever be remembered for his 7 3’s in Game 7.
It might surprise you, and a lot of people, to learn that he shot it better in the regular season (41%) than he did today (39%).
He was 1-for-4 with six minutes left in the first half, and Boston down five. There’s that old basketball truth about wanting a bad shooter to hit their first one, because they’ll keep shooting.
Ime Udoka said he told Grant Williams the Bucks were disrespecting him more than they did earlier in the series: “I told him to let it fly.”
He hit another, then missed two more to sit at 2-for-7 late in the first half. With 51.9 seconds to go in the half, he splashed one to give Boston a 45-43 lead. The Celtics never trailed again.
In the first minute of the third quarter, he splashed another to give Boston a 10-point lead. He missed a couple more and was 4-for-11 midway through the third, with the Celtics still up 10. Meanwhile, Giannis was still on the other team, and no lead was safe.
As a Celtics fan who has watched Boston try to go through LeBron since 2008, I’m familiar with the dance of trying to beat the best in the world at their best. You need a long series to have a chance to get something like this, but consider this piece of history over the last seven games:
Giannis gave all he possibly could have this series. The first player EVER with 200 points, 100 rebounds and 50 assists in a single series. We have the best player on the planet. More title runs to come. pic.twitter.com/e0Yz9LiCxm
But Giannis had to go through mountains, including Grant, to get those numbers against Boston. In Game 7, he added 25 points and 20 rebounds, just missing a triple-double with 9 assists. But all of that came on just 9-of-26 shooting. The best player in the world won so many battles, but Boston won the war. And in Game 7, Grant helped lead the charge on both ends of the floor.
Up 10, he splashed a three to make it 68-55 midway through the third. Four minutes later he hit another, and the Celtics went up 16. And then, to open the fourth, one more to put Boston up 16 again.
— The Sports Source (@SportsSourceTV) May 15, 2022
Boston advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Grant Williams was the leading scorer in Game 7, tying the NBA record for threes made in a Game 7, while being one of the primary defenders on the best player in the world.
All you can ask for is opportunity. You let it fly from there.
The Celtics go to Miami (a fun team to root against if you’re a neutral Vol fan! Tyler Herro! Bam Adebayo! Jimmy Butler taking shots at Tobias!). If he’s healthy, Grant will play in at least 37 playoff games in his first three seasons. That’s almost twice as may as the next closest Vols on the list (Dale Ellis and Josh Richardson with 19 each in their first three seasons). Bernard King played in two playoff games in his first three years. Allan Houston played in three. C.J. Watson didn’t make the playoffs until year four, Tobias not until year five. Nothing is guaranteed. All you can ask for is opportunity.
And it is such a joy, and a gift, to watch Grant make the absolute most of his.
If Dustin Colquitt signs in free agency and plays in every game this fall, he’ll pass Jason Witten for the most NFL appearances by a former Vol. A whopping 271 games is the current record here, with Witten passing Peyton Manning’s 266 appearances in his final season. I count eight former Vols at 200+ games played via Wikipedia, with Witten 26th among all players and 12th if you remove specialists.
When I was in middle and high school in the 90s, I used to make a list for my grandparents around this time every off-season. After the draft, I’d start writing down where each former Vol was slated to play that fall. My grandparents had Sunday Ticket, and always chose who to watch based on how many former Vols were playing. And in the 90s, the options were bountiful.
Greatness does not guarantee longevity. But longevity guarantees you’ll be remembered. I’d assume there are still quite a few walking around Farragut whose favorite Vol of all is Bill Bates. Charlie Garner ranks sixth in collegiate rushing yards among UT running backs in the 90s alone, then had a longer NFL career than all of them. I knew I could find him on Sundays for a long, long time. In the days when the Tennessee Titans were still the Houston Oilers, it’s how many in Big Orange Country found their favorite NFL team.
What’s also changed since then: how many Vols you can watch in the NBA. And the NBA is much more about the postseason.
Greatness does not guarantee longevity, and it does not guarantee team success (though Charlie Garner played in a Super Bowl and Bill Bates has multiple rings).
Case in point: Bernard King is the undisputed best basketball player to come out of Tennessee. Despite injuries and suspensions, King trails only Dale Ellis (1,209) in NBA appearances with 874 games played via RealGM. Allan Houston and Tobias Harris are the only other Vols to appear in 750+ NBA games.
King played those 874 games over 16 years, more than half of them after the NBA expanded the postseason from 12 to 16 teams. He appeared in 28 playoff games.
Grant Williams has played in 209 career games in three seasons. He’ll appear in his 28th playoff game tonight.
Ellis is the leader here too with 73 playoff appearances. But he only made one trip to the conference finals, with Seattle swept by the Lakers in 1987. Allan Houston made 63 playoff appearances, getting to the NBA Finals in 2000 1999 with a signature moment of his own in the first round.
Those two were on an all-star level: Ellis averaged 21 points per game in that 1987 run, Houston 18 in 2000 1999. (That’s a lot considering that game winner made it a 78-77 final score!)
But right now, both Tobias Harris and Grant Williams still have the opportunity to see each other in the conference finals. That would guarantee a Vol in the NBA Finals for the first time since Jordan McRae in 2016, and the first to play significant minutes there since Houston. Tobias averages 19 points in 40 minutes in these playoffs with the Sixers. Grant is getting 11 points in 30 minutes while guarding, you know, Durant and Giannis.
Even if the Bucks sweep the Celtics, Grant will tie Josh Richardson with 30 career playoff appearances. And if Boston finds a way to advance, he could climb as high as sixth all-time in playoff appearances among Vol alumni. In three years.
Tobias is already fifth on that list, and will pass Ernie Grunfeld for fourth in this round. Should the Sixers advance to the Finals, he could pass C.J. Watson to trail only Ellis and Houston all-time. These kind of postseason, championship opportunities are just something we haven’t had available as Tennessee basketball fans.
For an East Tennessee fanbase with solid NBA options – the Grizz, Trae Young in Atlanta – Tennessee’s on-court success the last 15+ years has finally produced legitimate homegrown options for the next generation of fans. I’m biased, of course, as a kid who became a Celtics fan in the 80s because he looked like Larry Bird. It’s a gift to have Grant Williams on my favorite team.
But it’s probably more of a gift than we give it credit for to have former Vols on any team to still be playing right now.
The Jayhawks are champs, and it’s on to 2023, where Tennessee will again find themselves in the national conversation. In the earliest-way-too-earlies, you’ll find next year’s Vols #11 at 247, #14 at Sports Illustrated, and #9 from Aaron Torres. Tennessee currently has the 16th-best odds to win it all in 2023 in Vegas.
Two weeks ago we compared Rick Barnes’ best teams at Texas and Tennessee, noting how three of his best seven teams in KenPom have been right here in Knoxville, including his best-ever squad in 2019. Thanks to great tournament work from North Carolina, the 2022 Vols finished .01 points higher than 2008 Texas, making this year’s team Barnes’ fourth-best ever in KenPom, and the second-best ever at Tennessee.
All of that, of course, leads to March, where all college basketball conversations will end. It remains the biggest difference between Barnes’ peak at Texas and his current run at Tennessee: the Longhorns made the Elite Eight three times from 2003-08, including a Final Four appearance.
Each of those Texas teams to advance to the Elite Eight – where the Vols have only been once – were seeded #1 or #2. As usual, not rocket science: the best teams tend to have the best chance to advance. But we also know full well there are no guarantees on Selection Sunday. Let’s take nothing away from Duke’s Final Four run, or seek to add additional meaning to Tennessee losing in round two beyond 2-for-18 from three. The 2023 Vols will still want to position themselves as high as possible in the bracket.
In the midst of frustration and an early exit, it’s easy to feel more hopeless about the process. Sites like ours exist for conversations about the trees, which can sometimes obscure the forest. And we’re well aware of Tennessee’s brand recognition value when compared to other programs who are often shooting for the top two lines of the tournament.
And in particular this year, it was hard to look at any data on Selection Sunday and find an argument against the Vols as a #2 seed. That’s especially considering the way Tennessee and Wisconsin were handled on the overall seed line from the initial Top 16 reveal on February 19, to Selection Sunday on March 13. The Badgers somehow passed Tennessee in that span on the seed line despite going 4-2 with a home loss to Nebraska and a first-game exit in the Big Ten Tournament, while Tennessee went 7-1 and knocked off Auburn, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
When we look at all of this with a microscope, it can indeed feel hopeless. So let’s zoom all the way out and go for something much more simple: the teams to earn #1 and #2 seeds tend to be the teams with the fewest losses. Set the 2021 tournament aside with covid scheduling issues throwing the math off. Since the last major round of conference expansion in 2016, #1 seeds have averaged 4.55 losses on Selection Sunday (2016-19 plus 2022). Then #2 seeds have averaged 6.25 losses. Even if the selection committee might not phrase it this way, when deciding between two teams on the top seed lines? How often does five losses vs six losses become a simple factor?
Here too, a football mentality might bleed across all sports: did you lose this week? Then you’re going down in the AP Poll. Is your 10-2 of greater quality than their 11-1? Might not matter.
Again, not rocket science: the best teams win the most games. But I do think there’s an important scheduling component here, especially with the SEC having come so far in basketball. In those 2023 way-too-earlies? Arkansas and Kentucky go #1 and #2 in two of them. The Hogs are #1 in all three. Alabama is in the Top 15 at 247 and SI; Auburn is in the Top 15 with Torres. This league isn’t going anywhere.
So for Tennessee, who routinely schedules up, is there a conversation to be had about our own process, and how it best positions the Vols for success?
Rick Barnes does a great job getting games that get his team ready, early and often. That’s a strength, not a weakness, and one I don’t see being abandoned. But watching Tennessee’s offense this year shows Barnes was already more flexible than some gave him credit for. If you’re going to get an abundance of Quad 1 games in league play now, how many of them do you want to chase in the non-conference if the goal is to be seeded as high as possible?
Tennessee Strength of Schedule in KenPom, 2002-22
Year
KenPom SOS
NC SOS
Seed
Coach
2002
5
48
Buzz
2007
7
105
5
Pearl
2022
10
42
3
Barnes
2018
11
20
3
Barnes
2008
13
24
2
Pearl
2006
13
171
2
Pearl
2017
16
29
Barnes
2005
19
153
Buzz
2011
22
27
9
Pearl
2019
25
129
2
Barnes
2015
30
140
Tyndall
2004
30
285
NIT
Buzz
2009
31
21
9
Pearl
2003
32
263
NIT
Buzz
2010
34
160
6
Pearl
2014
36
115
11
Cuonzo
2012
42
167
NIT
Cuonzo
2020
45
79
COVID
Barnes
2016
50
108
Barnes
2021
56
221
5
Barnes
2013
69
104
NIT
Cuonzo
The Vols finished 10th in strength of schedule this year in KenPom. And if you compare what we saw this year to 2018, just below 2022 in overall strength of schedule, note the difference in non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS). In 2018, the Vols built their resume in large part on non-conference foes (Purdue, Villanova, North Carolina). In 2022, the SEC is even stronger, giving Tennessee a better overall strength of schedule even with a drop in non-conference scheduling.
The comparison in philosophies between Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl is interesting. Pearl was a master of the old RPI system, routinely getting games against strong mid-major programs who were going to win a ton over the course of the season. As such, Pearl built some of his best strength of schedule ratings by playing seven KenPom Top 100 mid-majors in his six years. Barnes has only scheduled one of those foes (Furman in 2018), and prefers to go after bigger fish.
But a couple of things have changed between their tenures. The SEC/Big 12 Challenge will give you an additional non-conference showdown; the Vols don’t get to handpick their opponent, but when we’re good, they’re good. And not only has the SEC improved greatly, it’s added two games for an 18-game slate. Pearl and company played a 16-game schedule, leaving approximately 14 non-conference games each year. Barnes only has around 12.
Of those 12, history shows Tennessee normally plays:
2-3 games in a major preseason tournament. In 2022-23, it’s the Battle 4 Atlantis (Butler, BYU, Dayton, Kansas, NC State, USC, Wisconsin). In 2023-24, it’s Maui.
1 game in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge; since returning to the national stage in the 2018 season, the Vols have drawn West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas, and Texas.
3-4 other major conference foes, with at least two of them being away from Knoxville. We know the Vols owe Arizona a visit.
5-6 low-major opponents
This means more than half of Tennessee’s non-conference schedule is both meaningful and dangerous. This season, it looked like this:
Strong: vs Villanova, vs North Carolina, at Colorado, vs Texas Tech, Arizona, at Texas (plus vs Memphis)
So again, here’s the question: given the number of quality games you’re going to get in the SEC now, and the simplicity with which the selection committee might default to in choosing the best teams by who lost least? What’s the balance between getting your team ready, and getting them as many wins as possible?
As a fan, I’m incredibly grateful to Barnes and his team for playing so many meaningful games. And without RPI, I’m not sure it’s advantageous to do the old Pearl plan of a few less top targets and a few more strong mid-majors. But will we see a slight adjustment to account for the strength of the SEC?
It’s in Tennessee’s best interests to schedule to bring out its best basketball; you still want that more than you want to eat a dozen cupcakes and come to SEC play undefeated. But part of that best basketball in March is giving yourself the best possible chance to advance. Barnes has done it thrice from the one or the two line; the only other time one of his teams was seeded that high was his best-ever group here in 2019, an overtime away from another Elite Eight.
The 2023 Vols can be good enough to be in that top line conversation again. I’m curious to see how they schedule to reflect it.
When Rick Barnes was hired at Tennessee, one of the early questions was, “Which Rick Barnes are we getting?” From 2003-08 at Texas, he made a Final Four, two other Elite Eights, and won the Big 12 twice. It became success the program had a hard time duplicating, a conversation we were familiar with from a football standpoint. But from a basketball standpoint, Tennessee was much more vulnerable in looking for its third coach in as many years. Barnes’ “weaknesses” still looked like strengths for the Vols seven years ago this week. (The comments from Rocky Top Talk are a good reflection of all this.)
Seven years later, his strengths are indeed now our own: a conference title when picked to finish 13th in the league, a month at number one the next season, and now our first SEC Tournament championship since 1979. The Vols have seven Top 5 wins under his watch, and are 10-7 against Kentucky. And any questions about recruiting no longer exist. The program has signed eight consensus five-stars since 2000; Barnes has five of them in the last four years.
All of that is meant to position you as well as possible in the bracket, when it all matters most. And in positioning, Tennessee has also excelled. The Vols have earned a Top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament only five times in our history. Barnes has three of those in the last five years.
Heartbreak has followed, of course. Sister Jean. Ryan Cline. 2-for-18.
In this, we’ve found ourselves circling back to one of those first questions: “Can his success at Texas be duplicated at Tennessee?” Approached, no doubt. Approached, and counted as not just progress, but new heights. Many of the things Rick Barnes is doing at Tennessee haven’t been done here, recently or ever.
We’re also, so far, a school with a hard ceiling in March: one Elite Eight, no Final Fours. Sometimes I think this idea makes our tournament shortcomings even more painful: history is out there, just a few wins down the road.
It’s history Barnes achieved at Texas, multiple times, in the peak of his tenure there. So something we didn’t even deem necessary for success here when he was hired – can we be as good as they were at their best –has re-entered the chat.
One piece of good news on that front: in at least one way, we’ve already done it.
Rick Barnes Teams in KenPom, 2002-2022
Year
Team
KenPom
Seed
Result
Notes
2019
Vols
26.24
2
Sweet 16
Lost 2/3 game in OT
2011
Texas
25.93
4
Round 2
Lost 4/5 game by 1
2006
Texas
25.79
2
Elite 8
Lost in OT
2008
Texas
25.09
2
Elite 8
Lost to #1 Memphis
2022
Vols
24.80
3
Round 2
2-of-18 from 3
2003
Texas
23.49
1
Final Four
33 points for Carmelo in F4
2018
Vols
22.27
3
Round 2
Sister Jean
2004
Texas
21.54
3
Sweet 16
2010
Texas
20.75
8
Round 1
Lost 8/9 game by 1 in OT
2021
Vols
19.95
5
Round 1
2009
Texas
19.65
7
Round 2
Lost to #2 Duke by 5
2007
Texas
19.24
4
Round 2
2015
Texas
18.94
11
Round 1
2002
Texas
17.69
6
Sweet 16
Lost to #2 Oregon by 2
2005
Texas
17.01
8
Round 1
2012
Texas
15.90
11
Round 1
2014
Texas
14.52
7
Round 2
2017
Vols
12.62
2020
Vols
10.80
2016
Vols
7.31
2013
Texas
7.02
KenPom doesn’t award trophies, at least none that I’m aware of. But it remains an excellent way to judge the overall strength of your basketball team, and make better year-to-year comparisons. Like SP+ in football, we love it for the way it assigns value to every possession, not just every outcome.
Of course, we’d trade all our highest-rated-in-KenPom stuff for more tournament wins, in a heartbeat. And Tennessee’s only team to advance to the Elite Eight in 2010 is an outlier in more ways than one: that group was a six seed, and finished the year at 18.50 in KenPom. That’s eighth-best among Tennessee teams in the last 20 years. But they won a tight 6/11 game in the first round, took advantage of an upset by beating a 14 in round two, and then cashed in on the final possessions in beating #2 Ohio State in the Sweet 16.
The old joke from football abounds here: the best way to win close games is not to play them. But in the NCAA Tournament, that option seems wildly unavailable, and earlier than we think. Unless you get a significant upset in your pod, you’re playing a Quad 1 game in Round 2.
To borrow Josh Heupel’s line about being in a race against ourselves to be as good as we can as fast as we can? In basketball, you want to be as good as you can as late as you can. One of the best ways to advance in March is to benefit from upsets around you. But in terms of what we can control, which is always a good place to start, the best way to advance in the tournament is to be a really good basketball team all year, and at your very best on Selection Sunday.
Five days later, I think this is still the most painful part of the loss to Michigan. Tennessee checked those boxes like never before, and this team was positioned to give the 2019 group a run for its money as our best ever, in KenPom and elsewhere.
But, at least for me, what we can control also comes into play in how these wins and losses are remembered. The Vols didn’t shoot 2-for-18 because they took bad shots. The loss to Michigan is simple to explain, though still not easy to live with. In this way, I don’t think it will resonate as long as some of our other tournament defeats. To me, the hardest losses to live with are the ones when you felt like you were in control of the outcome with the most to gain/lose; there are still ghosts from 2000 North Carolina and 2007 Ohio State floating around in those regards. And Tennessee’s bracket didn’t fall apart around them, a common thread of both 2000 North Carolina and 2018 Loyola Chicago, which to me is still the toughest loss during Barnes’ time here.
I’m less concerned with what some of Barnes’ teams who struggled more in the regular season did in the tournament. Sometimes teams struggle for good reasons and put it together late for even better ones; here too, our 2010 Elite Eight squad qualifies. In KenPom, you’ll note the Kevin Durant squad from 2007 is only 12th-best among Barnes’ teams in the last 21 seasons. Your mileage may vary on how far a team with the 18-year-old version of one of the best human beings to play basketball should’ve gone. But KenPom is helpful in revealing what a team is capable of over the course of the entire year, not just in its final games.
In those final games, Barnes’ very best teams at Tennessee and Texas have met various degrees of heartbreak. The 2019 Vol squad is, by this metric, his best team ever. But when we think back to that Purdue game, I’m still struck by a general absence of what exactly I’d like Tennessee to do differently. Ryan Cline hit 7-of-10 from the arc, and frustrations with officiating at the end had more to do with the rule than the call. In particular, 2019 was an incredible year for college basketball; the Virginia squad that won it all is one of the best teams of the last 20 years in KenPom, and from the Sweet 16 on they won by four, in overtime, one, and in overtime again in the finals.
If you want frustration with officiating and hard-to-live-with losses, check Barnes’ best KenPom team at Texas from 2011. In the 4/5 game with Arizona in Round 2, I’m pretty sure they lose possession on a five-second call that only goes to four. Of Barnes’ two Elite Eight squads, one lost in overtime, and the other to the 2008 Memphis squad we know well. His team that made the Final Four ran into Carmelo Anthony.
What did those Texas teams who advanced that far do differently?
2003 Final Four: The Longhorns earned a #1 seed, something that’s also never been done here. From there, their path to the Final Four went through a 16, a 9, a 5 (82-78 over UConn), and then #7 Michigan State was waiting in the Elite Eight. Texas won that game 85-76, then lost to Carmelo and Syracuse in the Final Four.
2006 Elite Eight: Playing from #2, they beat a 15, a 10, then #6 West Virginia 74-71, before falling to Big Baby’s LSU squad in overtime.
2008 Elite Eight: Again playing from #2, they beat a 15, survived #7 Miami 75-72, then blasted #3 Stanford by 20. #1 Memphis beat them 85-67 in the Elite Eight.
Again, not rocket science: Barnes’ teams that advanced the deepest in the NCAA Tournament were either a #1 or #2 seed. His three to achieve that at Texas all went to the Elite Eight. And his one to achieve that at Tennessee is, in KenPom, his best team ever, a Ryan Cline miss and an overtime away from the Elite Eight itself.
Maybe this is a lot of words just to say, “It’s hard to win in March.” You self-scout and all those things, and you work to make your own luck; Barnes has never been the guy to chalk losses up to misfortune, even when it might be the best available answer.
But I think the best thing Tennessee can do to win in March, it’s already doing: recruit great players, develop them well, build a cohesive unit that plays for each other, and win basketball games. That’s being done here, over the last five seasons, better than it’s ever been done. It’s being done on par with the best it was done at Texas. It didn’t manifest itself against Michigan from the three-point line, and instead went historically in the other direction. And that hurts the way sports will do you sometimes: it’s great, and it hurts. And it’s great.
The big picture, however, gives me as much reason to believe in Tennessee basketball now than ever. And I’m eager to see them chase the mountaintop again next year.
Many years and one website ago, our old friends at the SB Nation Kentucky site referred to one of their losses as “an act of God.” I remember sharing a good-natured laugh about this at the time: such is the burden of Kentucky basketball, that when you lose, it has to be God’s fault first.
I thought about that earlier this year, when Kentucky shot a billion percent from the field at Rupp Arena. It was the worst statistical performance by a Tennessee defense in the last 20 years (via KenPom), at least. And Tennessee’s defense, as you know, was great. It was one of those things where the simplicity of it made it easier to stand, even when “it” was a 28-point loss to your biggest rival.
Two weeks ago today, Tennessee tied its school record by hitting 12-of-18 threes against Arkansas. The Vols were shooting 43.9% from three in their seven-game winning steak to close the regular season plus the SEC Tournament. We hit 14-of-24 (58.3%) in this building 48 hours ago.
Today: 2-of-18 (11.1%).
Tennessee’s previous low this season was 6-of-39 (15.4%) against Texas Tech. The 11.1% performance against Michigan isn’t just the worst all year, it’s one of the ten worst percentages the Vols have shot in the last 20 years (via KenPom).
I’m not sure I would even lean too heavily on the, “This team can go cold in spurts,” conversation. This wasn’t cold in spurts. There was no spurt. This was the freezer for 40 minutes. With good looks from good shooters. But today, the answer was no.
We almost won anyway. The Vols still had 15 assists, and shot 53.1% from two. Uros Plavsic had nine points and nine rebounds. Kennedy Chandler had 19 points and nine assists. The Vols turned it over just seven times.
But 2-of-18 from three beats you, in March or otherwise.
Credit Michigan for holding up their end, even short-handed. Hunter Dickinson kept them alive and well early in the second half, and his teammates picked up where he left off down the stretch. It’s our third tournament loss to the Wolverines since 2011, but this time there’s no coach waiting to be let go or a charge call we can’t live with.
Nothing is easy to live with in March. Wasn’t the case three years ago when Ryan Cline hit seven threes. Or the year before that when Sister Jean made sure it wasn’t God’s fault, but watched it hit the rim a few times just to keep ’em humble. Or any of the years before that.
It’s never easy. But it is pretty simple today. Tennessee was as hot as any team in the country, then had one of their coldest days in history.
When we lose like this, it’s easy sometimes to think of all the days as cold. Tennessee’s breaks in the NCAA Tournament have often happened next to us, instead of directly involving us. The Vols made the Sweet 16 in 2010 and 2014 by way of a 14-seed beating a 3-seed, then dispatching that 14-seed with ease in the second round. But in terms of a game just going Tennessee’s way in this thing? That’s a harder list to curate, with nothing on it like what happened to us today.
Maybe that’s the hardest part: you can play so well for so long. In Tennessee’s case, probably the best the Vols looked entering the NCAA Tournament ever. You can be hotter than you’ve ever been. And then you can be colder than you’ve ever been the next game. And then it’s done.
I love basketball. It’s my favorite sport. And thus, I don’t like reducing it to, “Who made shots?” Today was an outlier, though one I’m sure will make its way into the aggregate of many a lazier argument about the Vols.
On the whole, this team gave us so much joy. So many good memories in the regular season, the ones you bank away because you know it only ends in heartbreak for all but one in March, and we’ve only been all but eight once ourselves. And then this team won the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life.
There is much to celebrate, and there was much to be hopeful for, and then it’s just done in the simplest way. Whenever it stops being hard, maybe that will help us enjoy everything this group did accomplish more robustly.
Because whatever your list of favorite Tennessee teams is? I hope this one still has a chance to get on it.
One of the best days in sports is relevant right away: the first game of the NCAA Tournament features the other half of Tennessee’s pod in Indianapolis, with Colorado State and Michigan squaring off at 12:15 PM ET. The Vols and Lancers will follow around 2:45.
The go-to numbers all year, with the consistent lone loss coming when the ghost of Joe B. Hall set the nets on fire in Lexington. Tennessee’s best offense is shot selection, and Rick Barnes’ teams continue to set the pace in assist percentage: sixth nationally this year, seventh in 2018, 24th in 2019.
One difference between this team and those: the number of players who can take the lead in scoring. Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield led the 2019 Vols in scoring in 28 of 37 games. This year, Tennessee’s leading scorers have been:
Santiago Vescovi 12 games
Kennedy Chandler 6
Josiah-Jordan James 4
Zakai Zeigler 4
Olivier Nkamhoua 4
John Fulkerson 2
Justin Powell 1
Tennessee’s balance covers a multitude of sins, and helps promote good shot selection. An important recent development here: Kennedy Chandler had zero assists and three turnovers in the loss at Texas. Since then, he’s averaged 4.5 assists to 2.2 turnovers in the last 13 games. In his three-game run as SEC Tournament MVP: 15 assists, 3 turnovers. This offense is accelerating, and he’s at the wheel.
Against their toughest competition, the Vols also found wins just beneath those shooting and assist numbers. They beat Auburn with nine assists. They beat Arizona at 38.8% from the floor and 29.2% from the arc.
As has been the case all year, the Vols don’t need much from their shooting to win, and they’ve been getting that and more for a while now. Since the loss at Arkansas: 61-of-139 (43.9%) from the arc, seven wins, zero losses. Josiah-Jordan James in that stretch: 18-of-36 (50%). Not bad for a guy who went 14-of-63 (22.2%) in his first 11 games this season while recovering from injury.
The defense leads the way, but it can’t win by itself. Tennessee’s two best defensive performances this year by shooting percentage: 30.5% at Arkansas, 31.1% vs Texas Tech, both losses. The good news is, the Vols have mostly solved the offensive rebounding problems that plagued them in the past. Against teams not featuring Oscar Tshiebwe, the Vols went 19-2 when allowing single digit offensive rebounds. They also beat teams featuring Oscar Tshiebwe twice, despite allowing 29 combined offensive boards.
So, what beats Tennessee?
Tennessee’s defense travels everywhere except Rupp. So even when the shooting isn’t there, the defense keeps the Vols in it. What has taken Tennessee out of it this season: turnovers and poor free throw shooting.
Kentucky forced 20 turnovers at Rupp, Villanova 18 in Connecticut. The most painful portions of the losses to Texas and Texas Tech: identical 8-of-16 performances from the free throw line. Tennessee is 16-2 when shooting 68+% from the stripe.
From the few losses we’ve seen, the worst-case scenario for Tennessee is cold from the arc + sloppy with the ball + really poor free throw shooting. Against elite competition, two of the three showing up could be trouble. But Tennessee’s defense has still been so good, the Vols have had their chances in three of those seven losses. If we get back to Villanova, we’ll see if we can take anything from that one.
If the Vols get a good day from their offense, a great day from their defense tends to take care of the rest. Their ball sharing and diversity of scoring options has led to far, far more good days than not recently. And even if shots aren’t falling, taking care of the basketball and making free throws can be enough to win the day.
Tennessee’s best basketball has unfolded beautifully these last few weeks.
Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, Tennessee has made the NCAA Tournament 16 times. Fifteen of those have come in the last 25 seasons, including 11 of the last 17. We’re getting used to this.
What we’re not accustomed to yet is advancing beyond the Sweet 16. The program’s only appearance in the Elite Eight is now 12 years old, ending a bucket shy of the Final Four in 2010. Tennessee’s six trips to the Sweet 16 since tournament expansion have come one of two ways: earn a top five seed, or get some help in the bracket. Two of Tennessee’s very best teams got there in 2008 and 2019. A pair of Vol squads won the 4/5 game in round two in 2000 and 2007. And two others found a 14 seed waiting in round two in 2010 and 2014.
Maybe you’ll find this helpful for visualizing our tournament history:
Seed
Years
R32
S16
E8
1
2
06 08 19
06 08 19
08 19
3
18
18
4
99 00
99 00
00
5
07 21
07
07
6
10
10
10
10
7
8
98 01
9
09 11
10
89
11
14
14
14
It’s easy to get ahead of ourselves when Tennessee is playing so well. In fact, I’m not sure any Tennessee team has played this well leading up to the tournament, so yeah, maybe we don’t know how to handle it at all. Jerry Green’s best teams in 1999 and 2000 won incredibly meaningful games down the stretch in the regular season, but both lost on Friday in the SEC Tournament. The same fate befell Bruce Pearl’s first two teams in 2006 and 2007.
And even those very best teams in 2008 and 2019 ran into a combination of fatigue and the schedule catching up to them. The 2008 squad was 25-2 when it went to number one, but finished 4-2 down the stretch. The 2019 squad was 23-1 before losing at Rupp, finishing 4-3 in the regular season before riding a steep roller coaster in the SEC Tournament. The 2010 team that advanced the farthest won five in a row, then lost to Kentucky by 29 in the SEC semifinals. And Cuonzo Martin’s team won five in a row in their closing run by an average of 23 points, but only one of them finished in the KenPom Top 100.
This Tennessee team was 11-5 (2-3) on January 15, and lost at Kentucky by 28. Since then they are 15-2, with a one-point loss at #6 seed Texas, and a loss at #4 seed Arkansas. In that stretch they’ve beaten #6 seed LSU, #2 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Auburn, #4 seed Arkansas, and #2 seed Kentucky on a neutral floor. Without question, they are playing their best basketball.
But before we worry about Arizona or the Final Four, consider how quickly history would be in front of this team.
Since tournament expansion, here are the highest-seeded teams Tennessee has beaten in the NCAA Tournament:
#2 Ohio State (2010 Sweet 16)
#4 Virginia (2007 Second Round)
#5 UConn (2000 Second Round)
If the Vols beat Colorado State in the second round, it’ll go next on the list, tied with #6 UMass in the first round in 2014. If the Vols beat Villanova in the Sweet 16, it’ll tie 2010 Ohio State for the best team we’ve beaten in the tournament and the farthest we’ve advanced, ever.
Beyond seed or path, this Tennessee team has as good of a chance to advance as any I can remember. The tournament is also a dangerous, single-elimination affair. In 2019, Colgate hit 15-of-29 from the arc against us, and made life a lot less comfortable than we had in mind going into a 2-vs-15 game.
It’s a privilege to consider the ceiling with a team like the one we have now. But the incredibly meaningful outcomes along the way in the bracket, especially relevant to our tournament history, give us reason to celebrate every single win in this thing.
I hope there are many of them. Almost all of them can be special.
