Lamonte Turner’s shoulder is an issue that may not go away. I hate that for him most of all; via KenPom, Turner shot 45.2% in conference play from the arc in 2018, second-best in the SEC. Then he shot 61% from inside the arc in league play last year, seventh-best. In both cases he got better as the year went along, so maybe there’s some hope there. But this year he’s shooting 23.4% from the arc (11-of-47) and 32.9% inside it. He’s still 11th nationally in assist rate, but when he’s removed as a scoring option those assists get much harder to come by as defenses adjust elsewhere.
Three point shooting again wasn’t great – 3-of-15 – but at least this time the Vols didn’t settle for 26+. After starting the season hot as a team, now only Jordan Bowden (36.7% and working hard for a clean look) and Yves Pons (32.3%) are above 30% from the arc; the Vols are at 29.7% as a team, 280th nationally. Tennessee has played a handful of really good defenses, but Cincinnati was not among them.
Tennessee’s own defense, great all year, failed them last night. The Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor with an effective field goal percentage of 60.9%. Only Purdue, with their flame-throwing 15 threes, hit better than 60% eFG% against the Vols last season, when defense didn’t have to be such a priority. This team now has little choice to prioritize anything else.
One thing that might encompass all of this: everyone playing a new role. Lamonte, shoulder at whatever percentage, is carrying an incredible load at point guard. Bowden, the beneficiary of being the third-through-fifth option last season depending on who else was on the floor, is now asked to be the primary. When Tennessee’s offense has worked well – Washington and VCU – the formula has included some combination of Bowden hitting shots, Turner getting to the free throw line, and consistent inside scoring from Pons (Washington) or Fulkerson (VCU). We were hopeful this model could win games while Josiah James came along and the freshmen off the bench sorted themselves out.
But when that formula gets disrupted, defense is the only option. It genuinely gave Tennessee a chance to beat Memphis anyway. When defense goes away, there’s little the Vols can do until a new formula arrives or a freshman emerges. Last night Cincinnati’s two best players had four fouls early in the second half. It made little difference.
The preseason thought was a split of the six big non-conference games before Kansas would earn a “that’s about right” head nod. When the Vols handled Washington, lost to Florida State for obvious turnover-related reasons, then beat VCU while Cincinnati and Wisconsin struggled, we could get appropriately greedy. That early split is still available if the Vols beat Wisconsin, but as always, we’re adjusting on the fly.
The Vols dropped to 29th in KenPom (55th offense, 19th defense), which projects them to finish 20-11 in the regular season. The Vols host Jacksonville State on Saturday, then Wisconsin the following Saturday, then SEC play begins with a visit from LSU (shout out to Steve Forbes) on Saturday, January 4. The Vols go to Kansas in late January for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
One point we’ll make when we get to league play: for the second year in a row, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded. The best non-Vol teams in the league – Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas – don’t appear on the schedule at all until February 8 (Cats in Knoxville), and Tennessee’s last five games are exclusively against that tier (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). So whatever we think we’re learning about this team in league play will come with a, “Well, we’ll see…”. Tennessee can change a lot of its bracket fate, good or bad, in those last three weeks. Until then, and as usual, everything is about getting better:
#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We made this schedule knowing we might be in this position. We knew it was possible. But that’s not a reason to play more buy games. That’s even more reason to play a schedule like ours. Let’s see what we’ve got early and then fix it.
I’m stealing that line from old friend of the blog Chris Pendley, and it’s true. If the Vols shot 4-of-26 from three in just about any other game and still almost win, you shrug your shoulders and move on to the next one. If the Vols continue to take 26 threes per game or make only four of them, then you panic. It’s early, but right now the Vols sit 282nd in KenPom’s luck ratings.
Tennessee is 2-2 in marquee non-conference affairs. The two that remain before the calendar turns to 2020 were originally thought to be the biggest tests. But while the Vols are on pace for about what we thought they’d be – still projecting at 21 regular season wins in KenPom, a six seed in the Bracket Matrix, 21st in the AP poll and 25th in NET – Cincinnati and Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worst.
The Rick Barnes What-If Bowl
With Barnes in Knoxville, Mick Cronin left Cincinnati after 13 years and took the UCLA job.
(Quick sidenote: I still do a lot of reading from SB Nation blogs, especially when we’re playing teams outside the SEC. If you’ve followed us throughout the years at Rocky Top Talk, here, or enjoy the good work done by fans of other teams writing in a freelance capacity, you might be interested to learn more about what’s happening to those who write for California-based teams. Bruins Nation was one of the first SB Nation sites I interacted with after starting at Rocky Top Talk when Kiffin was hired, and always found good writing and analysis there whenever I was curious about something happening at UCLA. All the best to their team.)
Steve Alford’s last two years at Westwood saw a loss in Dayton and a 17-16 finish. Mick Cronin is 7-4 in the early stages there. Meanwhile, John Brannen is in his first year at Cincinnati after four years and two NCAA Tournament appearances at Northern Kentucky.
We almost ran into these guys in each of the last two seasons. Last year the Bearcats lost to Iowa in the first round before we beat the Hawkeyes in the second. And two years ago Cincinnati was the two seed in our region, falling to Nevada in round two the same day we lost to Loyola Chicago.
They brought back their top three scorers, but have stumbled out of the gates. Some of it is strength of schedule: losses on the road to usually-good Xavier and an unusually-good Ohio State team, currently number one in KenPom. Cincinnati also did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before: three straight overtime games, including a loss to Bowling Green and wins over Valparaiso and UNLV. Their last game was particularly costly: Colgate – who is feisty, as we’ll attest to – won at Cincinnati as a result of this endgame sequence:
Disaster of a finish for Cincinnati, which will host Tennessee on Wednesday. The Bearcats lost to Colgate by 1. pic.twitter.com/1KQkBJFZns
The thought coming into the year was these six teams – Washington, Florida State, VCU/Purdue, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin – were all on Tennessee’s level, all somewhere between a 4-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the Bracket Matrix this week, it mostly holds up: the Vols at six, Washington at eight, Florida State at four, VCU down a bit at 10, Memphis at five. But Cincinnati appears in just one entry in the matrix, and Wisconsin – 5-5 and headed to Knoxville on December 28 – is in just three (of 27).
First-Year Problems (and Solutions?)
The Bearcats returned leading scorer Jarron Cumberland (18.8 per game last year), added his cousin Jaevin as a grad transfer from Oakland, and brought back guard Keith Williams and 6’8″ forward Tre Scott, all upperclassmen. But this team has problems that look like what a first-year coach might expect: after leading the nation in fewest steals allowed in 2019, Cincinnati is 281st in turnover percentage this season and 323rd in non-steal turnovers.
There’s also the emergence of 7’1″ Chris Vogt who transferred in with Brannen from Northern Kentucky. After playing less than 20 minutes in the first two games, he’s emerged as a primary option: double figure scoring in every game after the opener at Ohio State, 16 points in 26 minutes against Colgate, 24th nationally in effective field goal percentage. Foul trouble can be an issue with him, but we’ll yet again get to see the Vols at a size disadvantage.
Like the Memphis game, there’s a part of me that wants to type, “This should be a game Tennessee’s veterans win.” Tennessee’s defense – now 11th nationally in KenPom and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed – can take advantage of a turnover-prone team still learning a new system. Having played Ohio State, the Bearcats won’t be intimidated by the #21 Vols. But Tennessee’s best basketball this season won’t be about intimidation. If the mantra after Florida State was straightforward, not spectacular, I think it’s still true after Memphis…I’d just add, “And don’t miss 22 threes.”
We’ll see what we learned at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ESPN2, or if any learning was necessary if the Vols can knock down open threes.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.
The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.
The goals for the Vols:
Defend without fouling.
Shoot better than they did Saturday.
Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.
My prediction: Tennessee 68, Cincinnati 64
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: Most like VCU, and quite a bit better shooting the ball than Tennessee.
Turnover %
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Most like prior opponent Florida A&M in this category, the Bearcats are happy to turn the ball over. Well, maybe not happy, but they’ll do it. Tennessee’s better.
Offensive Rebound %
Team
OR%
Rank
Mississippi St.
40
2
LSU
37.2
6
Tennessee
28.9
153
Conclusion: Cincinnati is not bad at rebounding the ball (most like former opponent UNC Asheville), but Tennessee’s better.
Free Throw Rate
Team
FTRate
Rank
Cincinnati
37
68
Mississippi St.
36.9
69
Mississippi
36.5
74
Tennessee
34
129
Conclusion: Yikes. The Bearcats are better at getting to the free throw line than any team we’ve played to date, including Memphis, which was also in the Top 15. The Vols are not bad at this, but man, these guys have a Fast Pass to the stripe.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 47.9 (No. 222) (down from 50.6 (No. 131)), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.8 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 41.5 (No. 12) Saturday when the Vols put up a stench of a shooting percentage.
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ eFG% is 50.3 (No. 142), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 40.8 (No. 5).
Conclusions
The Bearcats are no slouches at defending, but they’re not up to the level of Memphis, so Tennessee should do better tonight than they did Saturday shooting the ball. And their shooting percentage defense is still elite.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.6 (No. 181), up from 20.3 (No. 218) last week. The Bearcats’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.9 (No. 210). Memphis’ was 23.3 (No. 41) heading into last Saturday’s game.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati’s turnover % is 21.6 (No. 281) (Memphis’ was 19.7 (No. 187)), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.8 (No. 111), up from 20.2 (No. 142).
Conclusions
Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover department this evening.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 31.2 (No. 88), which is down from 32.3 (No. 70) Saturday. Cincinnati’s defense in that category is 26.4 (No. 100). That makes them better than Memphis, which was 31.1 (No. 271) prior to Saturday’s game.
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ OR% is 30.2 (No. 116) (Memphis’ was 34.8 (No. 31)), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.7 (No. 41).
Conclusions
This looks pretty even to me on Tennessee’s side of the court, and the Vols appear to have a slight advantage on the Bearcats’ side.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.8 (No. 57) (down from 40 (No. 42)), while Cincinnati’s defense against that is 26.5 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 35.3 (No. 248).
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ FT Rate is 45.7 (No. 5), compared to Memphis’, which was 44.9 (No. 6). Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.4 (No. 77), up from 26.8 (No. 84).
Conclusions
These guys are much better than Memphis at keeping you off the foul line, and they are elite at getting there themselves. The Vols are going to have to figure out how to defend without breathing on them or looking at them.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.
The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.
The goals for the Vols:
Defend without fouling.
Shoot better than they did Saturday.
Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.
The biggest thing I thought Memphis could do to hurt Tennessee was get the Vols in foul trouble, which they absolutely did in the first half. Fortunately, Tennessee got big minutes from Drew Pember and a hot start from Josiah James. Memphis turned it over 11 times in the first 20 minutes, handing Tennessee a 17-5 lead. But the Vols couldn’t run away with it, and a late barrage gave Memphis a one-point halftime lead.
Foul trouble was a non-issue in the second half. In a low-scoring affair, the Vols got some nice buckets from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson; Fulkerson played one of the best games of his career on the defensive end. Both Pons and Fulkerson missed crucial free throws, but the Vols went 13-of-18 (72.2%) from the stripe on the day.
It didn’t look like it was a big part of the Memphis gameplan coming in, but as the day went along a common theme emerged for Tennessee: open looks from three that didn’t go down.
James hit three in the first half. He finished 3-of-6 with a big miss late. Jordan Bowden hit a really tough three in the second half. It was Tennessee’s only other make of the day. The Vols were shooting 33% from the arc coming in. They went 4-of-26 (15.4%). Non-James players went 1-of-20.
Memphis came in shooting 30% from the arc. They didn’t take many, as you’d expect. But they hit some big ones in the second half. Memphis had a four-point lead for 90 seconds with 12 minutes to play. The next time the game was at two possessions was Alex Lomax’s free throws with eight seconds left. In a game like that, threes are daggers. The Tigers took the lead on their final made three with 1:48 to play. The Vols had a deep miss from Lamonte Turner, the aforementioned miss from Josiah James, and Yves Pons missing the front end of a 1-and-1 on the offensive rebound.
This was Tennessee’s worst three-point shooting day since the season opener against Chattanooga in 2016-17 (1-for-16) and two games against Frank Martin’s eventual Final Four squad the same year.
You can take all the emotion from this rivalry – all the ways you want to win anyway, all the amplification from the Penny Hardaway stuff (who was gracious in victory), the nation’s longest home winning streak, all of that – but Tennessee simply cannot survive 4-of-26 from the arc. Most of them were good looks. Almost all of them didn’t go down.
At some point, maybe we’ll look at that and say it’s a good thing since the Vols almost won anyway. Today is not that day. There will be an ongoing conversation about Lamonte Turner’s shoulders (1-for-11 today), but I’m sure everything that can be done about that is already being done.
The result we got today makes sense given how we got there. But how we got there was unexpected, fairly unprecedented, and absolutely no fun.
The Vols will have to rebound quickly, heading to Cincinnati on Wednesday night. The rubber match with Memphis is next season in Nashville.
Thompson-Boling Arena’s official capacity is 21,678. The last two years, the Vols listed an official attendance above capacity five times:
Season
Opponent
Attendance
2019
Florida
22,261
2018
Georgia
22,237
2019
West Virginia
22,149
2019
Alabama
21,957
2019
Kentucky
21,729
How often do the Vols play a ranked non-conference opponent at home? Since Bruce Pearl’s arrival in 2005-06:
Season
Opponent
2018
#7 North Carolina
2015
#15 Butler
2013
#23 Wichita State
2012
#17 Pittsburgh
2012
#13 UConn
2011
#21 Memphis
2010
#1 Kansas
2009
#22 Memphis
2007
#16 Memphis
Put all those ingredients plus everything about the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry in a bowl; it’ll do a good enough job of mixing itself up. Tomorrow is the first of what should become five Saturday sellouts for the Vols (Wisconsin, LSU, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn). But it might end up being the loudest one of all.
Give me all the freshmen you have.
Even with James Wiseman still ineligible and Lester Quinones out with a broken hand, the number of freshmen Memphis will put on the floor is unusual. Start with 6’9″ Precious Achiuwa, who has seen his minutes and production increase to become the team’s number one option. He had 25 in their 87-86 win over Ole Miss on November 23, and he will get to the free throw line: 10 attempts vs the Rebels, 20 against Alcorn State. He’s only shooting 53.3% once he gets there, but for a Tennessee team playing a short bench, his ability to get to the line is of significance. As a team, Memphis is sixth nationally in free throw rate.
This team wants to run: Memphis is 10th nationally in tempo (stats via KenPom), and guards Damion Baugh (freshman) and Alex Lomax (sophomore) both hover around the Top 100 in assist rate.
And, much like the Washington, Florida State, and VCU teams the Vols saw already, Memphis relies on a lot of shot-blocking. The Tigers are statistically the best at it of that group, currently third nationally. But the other three are all in the Top 15. With Memphis, without Wiseman it’s less pure size and more about athleticism: Achiuwa and 6’7″ freshman D.J. Jeffries are both in the Top 150 in shot blocking percentage.
The good news here: despite having played three excellent shot-blocking teams thus far, the Vols are still 63rd nationally in fewest shots blocked by percentage. Some of it is the fearlessness of a guy like Yves Pons, sure. But credit John Fulkerson for being such a high-percentage player against great shot-blocking teams: Fulky is 56th nationally from inside the arc (69.2%), which also makes him 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage at that number since he doesn’t take any threes. The Vols have done a good job both getting him high-percentage looks, and encouraging him to shoot more.
The most straightforward way to talk about Tennessee is to look at Lamonte Turner – eight turnovers in our only loss – and put a lot of where we go on how he’s playing. But how he’s playing, outside of that game, is truly excellent as a point guard: fifth nationally in assist rate, including a pair of 12+ assist games against not-bad teams from Murray State and Chattanooga. There’s nothing about this or, apparently, any moment that’s going to scare him. But Tennessee needs him to choose the straightforward over the spectacular, which is where he got in trouble against the Seminoles. If he does that, the Vols have already gotten the best of a lot of what Memphis likes to do when it was wearing other uniforms.
Maybe the best news of all for Tennessee: last year’s team was led by its offense because you could generally rely on what you were going to get from Williams, Schofield, and Bone. But this year’s team has switched to being led by its defense, which is a more reliable option night in and night out. It traveled to Toronto and Destin. It helped Tennessee survive an early barrage of threes from Murray State. And – if it can stay out of foul trouble, as it usually does – it should handle all the emotion in the building on Saturday.
We’re too early in the year to think big picture, but the ultimate magic numbers in KenPom are always having both a Top 20 offense and defense. The 2018 Vols had the defense. The 2019 Vols had the nation’s third-best offense, but I would say lost a tiny bit of urgency defensively. So far this year, the Vols are 32nd in offense but 14th in defense. It’s the best model to survive and advance for this year’s squad, especially as Olivier Nkamhoua and Josiah Jones James mature.
What could be an all-timer Thompson-Boling crowd will do everything it can to take Memphis, its freshmen, and its coach out of their element. If Tennessee plays within theirs, the Vols should win.
3:00 PM Saturday with Dickie V on the mothership, baby.
For an argument built around which program needs to play the other more, it sure would be a shame to see the series slip away when both teams have so much going for them.
The Vols and Tigers first met in Oklahoma City in December 1969. It was another two decades before the next meeting, and at that point Memphis was rolling: seven straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 1982-89, including a Final Four in 1985. The Vols went dancing seven of eight years from 1976-83, but Don DeVoe’s squads struck out the next five seasons until one final appearance in his tenure in 1989, the same season Tennessee and Memphis began an annual series.
Tennessee won the first one that year 76-74, and the teams traded blows over the next four games, including a Vol win in the 1990 postseason NIT. Memphis won 74-72 in Knoxville in November 1990.
And then Penny Hardaway got two shots at the Vols. Tennessee won 65-64 in Memphis in December 1991. Back in Knoxville the following season with the Tigers ranked #8:
The rivalry survived Allan Houston vs. Penny Hardaway: Memphis won the next three, then the Vols won five in a row. The Tigers claimed a two point win in December 2001.
And then the series took a break after playing every year from 1988-89 to 2001-02.
Penny’s 1991-92 squad made the Elite Eight. The Tigers were back in the Sweet 16 in 1995, then bounced in the first round in 1996. And then Memphis missed the NCAA Tournament four years in a row. Calipari, he of a vacated Final Four at UMass in 1996 and 2.25 years with the New Jersey Nets, became the new head coach at Memphis for the 2000-01 season. And the rivalry was almost immediately discontinued.
While Memphis was missing the NCAA Tournament four years in a row in the late 90’s, Tennessee ascended under Jerry Green. But much of the work was being done by Kevin O’Neill’s recruits, including highly coveted point guard Tony Harris from Memphis.
Meanwhile, the rise of Tennessee football to its most dominant era in program history happened to coincide with the basketball series being played annually. The Vols and Tigers met six times in the 1980’s in football: three in Knoxville, three in Memphis. That format continued into the 90’s, with the Vols winning in 1991, 1992, and 1994 before Memphis infamously beat the Vols in 1996 (a game we talked a lot about when Tennessee lost to Georgia State). It remains the only win Memphis has ever recorded over Tennessee in football.
The series took three years off, then resumed in what looks like a two-for-one fashion: games in Knoxville in 1999 and 2001, with a return to Memphis in 2000. By that point the Vols were regularly competing for the national title, and Memphis was still mired in misery: between 1972 and 2002, the Tigers never made a bowl game.
At the turn of the century, there was little reason for Tennessee to play a 50-50 home-and-home series with Memphis in football; the Vols’ national profile made it easy to recruit in West Tennessee even without being there every few years. Meanwhile in basketball, Tennessee made the NCAA Tournament four years in a row from 1998-2001 with Tony Harris at point guard, while Memphis was absent from 1997-2002.
With Calipari eager to rebuild the Tigers and keep Tennessee out of Memphis, and Tennessee football finding little motivation to play the Tigers six times in ten years, both series took a break: three years in basketball, four years in football. In that time, Buzz Peterson’s era found the Vols on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament, Tennessee football’s ceiling was lowered a bit, and Calipari got the Tigers going again: an NIT title in 2002, back in the NCAA Tournament the next two years, and the NIT semifinals in 2005.
A deal was struck to put the basketball rivalry back on an annual basis, with home-and-home football games in 2005-06 and 2009-10. Tennessee hired Bruce Pearl. And oh boy.
As Good As It Gets?
Calipari’s distaste for this annual rivalry wasn’t built on Memphis already arriving on the national scene: when the Vols and Tigers resumed on the hardwood in January 2006, Memphis still hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since 1995. But that changed immediately: Calipari’s Tigers made two Elite Eight’s, the title game, and the Sweet 16 in the next four seasons.
Meanwhile, Pearl resurrected Tennessee’s program immediately. Those first three games are memorable to this day: Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table in 2006, Chris Lofton turning in the single best performance I’ve ever seen from a Tennessee player in 2007:
…and, of course, 1 vs 2 in 2008:
Calipari’s Tigers won by two the following year in Knoxville, then he walked through that door to Lexington, Kentucky. At both Memphis and Kentucky, Calipari has been a vocal champion of playing anyone, anytime, anywhere…except, apparently, the Vols while at Memphis.
Interestingly, Calipari built a national power those last four years at Memphis with guys like Robert Dozier (Georgia), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Detroit), Joey Dorsey (Baltimore), Shawn Taggart (Richmond), Derrick Rose (Chicago), and Tyreke Evans (Pennsylvania). While the Tigers did have high-value recruits like Willie Kemp from Bolivar on their roster, most of their success came from recruiting on the national stage.
Meanwhile, Tennessee rose to power under Bruce Pearl during the same span with Memphis-area products Dane Bradshaw, Wayne Chism, and J.P. Prince.
The Fadeaway
The Vols beat Memphis by 20 in Pearl’s final season, then lost three straight before the contract was up, including a memorable double overtime affair in Maui in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. In seven seasons Josh Pastner made the NCAA Tournament four times, but never got out of the first weekend. The Vols made the Sweet 16 from Dayton in Cuonzo Martin’s final season, their only appearance in the tournament’s second weekend between the Elite Eight to open the decade and last season.
In football, Lane Kiffin’s Vols doubled-up Memphis 56-28 in 2009, then Tyler Bray got his first career start and win at Memphis in 2010, the beginning of a four-game winning streak to get the Vols bowl eligible.
Tommy West got the Tigers bowl eligible five out of six years from 2003-08, including a 9-4 season in 2003, but flamed out at 2-10 in 2009.
The decade since the last football meeting between the two schools has seen a shocking reversal of fortune. Justin Fuente’s arrival on the banks of the Mississippi in 2012 saw the Tigers go 4-8 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, then rocket to a 10-3 finish in 2014 and a #25 final ranking. The Tigers went 9-4 the following season, Fuente went to Virginia Tech, and Mike Norvell picked up right where he left off: 8-5, 10-3 with a ranked finish, 8-6, and now 12-1 this season with the coveted New Year’s Six appearance in the Cotton Bowl.
Here’s a list of the other bowl games in the history of Memphis football: Burley, Pasadena (not Rose), New Orleans, GMAC, Motor City, New Orleans, St. Petersburg, Miami Beach, Birmingham, Boca Raton, Liberty, Birmingham.
While the Tigers rose, Tennessee wandered through the wilderness. Since 2014, Memphis is 57-22; the Vols are 41-34.
Meanwhile in basketball, Pastner’s move to Georgia Tech brought two tumultuous years of Tubby Smith and no NCAA or NIT appearances. Tennessee watched Cuonzo Martin leave for California, then hired Donnie Tyndall before firing him with cause after one season, then went 15-19 and 16-16 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons.
The Return
And then Memphis hired Penny Hardaway, and what we hoped we were getting from Rick Barnes arrived in full.
The Vols went 26-9 and won the SEC in 2018, then 31-6 including a month at #1 last season. Memphis went 22-14 and made the NIT last season, then Hardaway signed the nation’s number one recruiting class, including two four-stars and a five-star from Memphis. Two of those players, including James Wiseman, played for Hardaway at Memphis East.
So when this series was renewed last season as a three-year deal – Memphis, Knoxville, and next year in Nashville for the first time – it was unique in a couple of ways. One, there’s no football in the contract. Memphis has a home-and-home with Mississippi State and a two-for-one with Arkansas in the coming decade, but no Vols on the horizon.
But two, when the series renewed last December, balled fists or no…both the Tennessee and Memphis programs were on better footing than in 1989 or, as far as we knew at the time, 2006.
Pearl and Calipari were both on their way to great things in that initial meeting now 14 years ago. But we couldn’t be sure of either at the time. This time, the Vols have been one of the best teams in college basketball over the last two seasons and show no signs of leaving the Top 25, and Memphis has the nation’s best recruiting class.
I don’t know what Penny’s ambitions are – stay at Memphis forever, get to the NBA, or somewhere between – but it’s clear he can recruit at the level it takes to get Memphis where it needs to go. And it’s clear Rick Barnes can do the same at Tennessee, currently holding the nation’s #4 recruiting class for 2020 with one mid-state Tennessean and two others from Florida and Virginia. Jaden Springer chose the Vols over the Tigers.
“I think it’s been good for everybody…I think it will be good next year for us in Nashville. As your schedule opportunities come up, you’ve got to look at it and evaluate it.”
“You’re trying to get me to talk about things,” Barnes said. “Really, I don’t think about that. I told you, we’re going to build a schedule based on where and what we think is best. That’s all I can answer.”
And that’s the rub: where and what we think is best.
When Calipari took the Memphis job, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business. Not because of what Memphis was at the time, or what Tennessee was, but because of who he was trying to get Memphis to be. When the series did resume in 2006, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business because the Vols had struggled under Buzz Peterson and Memphis was looking to level up.
This notion that Tennessee has more to gain from playing Memphis than the other way around has always been at the heart of the matter for me, especially as Tennessee’s national profile rose under Pearl. The Tigers have spent the last 25 years in Conference USA and the American. In no individual season did it ever hurt their strength of schedule to play the Vols; far more often than not, it helped. Memphis got where they were going under Calipari by recruiting nationally, the Vols in part under Pearl by recruiting well in-state. Once Calipari left, the question could’ve been easily asked in reverse.
But now, having spent most of this decade apart, both Tennessee and Memphis are on excellent footing relative to both their expectations and recent history. For maybe the first time, we don’t have to have this argument about who benefits more.
It would be quite an opportunity missed, then, if both schools decide not to run it back after next season.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game this Saturday against the Memphis Tigers. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.
The goals for the Vols:
Protect the ball.
Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.
My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Tennessee 50.6 (No. 131)
Memphis 52.2 (No. 81)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Memphis is most like Florida State at shooting the ball. They’re quite a bit better than the Vols.
Turnover %
Tennessee 20.3 (No. 218)
Memphis 19.7 (No. 187)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Neither team is especially good at protecting the ball, but Memphis is better. Among the Vols’ prior opponents, they’re most like VCU and Florida State.
Offensive Rebound %
Tennessee 32.3 (No. 70)
Memphis 34.8 (No. 31)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
OR%
Rank
Mississippi St.
40
2
LSU
37.2
6
Tennessee
28.9
153
Conclusion: Memphis will be the best-rebounding team the Vols have played to date. Fortunately, Tennessee’s no slouch in this category, either.
Free Throw Rate
Tennessee 40 (No. 42)
Memphis 44.9 (No. 6)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
FTRate
Rank
Cincinnati
37
68
Mississippi St.
36.9
69
Mississippi
36.5
74
Tennessee
34
129
Conclusion: Again, Memphis will be the best team the Vols have played when it comes to getting to the free-throw line. They compare best to Murray State at this point among prior Vols’ opponents. Tennessee is no slouch in this category, but Memphis appears to be clearly better at this point.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 50.6 (No. 131), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.5 (No. 12).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ eFG% is 52.2 (No. 81), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.1 (No. 5).
Conclusions
Both teams are going to make it more difficult than usual for the other to shoot well.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee is still struggling with a turnover % of 20.3 (No. 218). The Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23.3 (No. 41).
When Memphis has the ball
Memphis’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 187), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 142).
Conclusions
Expect some frustration at Tennessee’s tendency to turn the ball over because it will be exacerbated by Memphis’ better-than-most ability to force turnovers.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 70), and Memphis’ defense in that category is 31.1 (No. 271).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ OR% is 34.8 (No. 31), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 22.6 (No. 14).
Conclusions
The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding under their own basket, largely because the Tigers aren’t very good there. Memphis is better on their own side of the court, but the Vols still have an advantage on that end. Bottom line: The Vols have an advantage rebounding the ball.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 40 (No. 42), while Memphis’ defense against that is 35.3 (No. 248).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ FT Rate is 44.9 (No. 6), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 84).
Conclusions
Both teams know how to get to the line. Memphis is marginally better at it than Tennessee, but Tennessee is much better at keeping their opponents off the line. Here’s to hoping that that translates into more trips for the Vols.
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.
The goals for the Vols:
Protect the ball.
Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.
Tennessee should both shoot well and keep A&M from shooting well.
The game could provide the Vols an opportunity to improve their turnover numbers.
Tennessee had huge advantages rebounding the ball on both sides of the court.
The Vols should be able to get to the foul line a bit more than usual, and the Rattlers should get there no more than what is normal for them.
The score prediction (from KenPom) was Tennessee 79, Florida A&M 50. Vols by 29.
So, how’d they do?
The Vols went 24-55 for 43.6% while holding the Rattlers to 16-45 for 35.6%. The team was cold from three, though, hitting only 3-16 (18.8%). That has to get better.
Tennessee turned the ball over 15 times to A&M’s 20.
The rebounding advantages showed up. Overall, it was 43-25, Vols. Tennessee had 27 defensive rebounds to FAMU’s 20 and 16 offensive rebounds to FAMU’s 5.
Tennessee got to the foul line 28 times (and hit 21 of them). The Rattlers got there 16 times and hit 9 of them.
The score was 72-43, Vols by 29.
John Fulkerson led the way with 15 points, but five different players hit double figures, and Olivier Nkamhoua had a double-double with 11 points and 13 rebounds. Jordan Bowden struggled, scoring only 3 points and going only 1-7.
With that, the team extended its home winning streak to 31, the longest active home streak in Division I. Rick Barnes will be going for win number 700 when Memphis comes to town on December 14.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against Florida A&M. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
The goals for the Vols:
Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
Take care of business.
Prediction: Vols 79, A&M 50
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Tennessee 51.2 (No. 110)
Florida A&M 39.3 (No. 347)
Prior opponents:
UNC Asheville
54.3
41
VCU
51
117
Florida St.
51
118
Washington
50.3
133
Chattanooga
48.5
188
Murray St.
48.1
207
Alabama St.
42.5
327
Conclusion: To Tennessee, Florida A&M is most like Alabama State when it comes to Effective FG%.
Turnover %
Tennessee 20.1 (No. 201)
Florida A&M 22 (No. 296)
Prior opponents:
Chattanooga
18.9
135
Florida St.
19.4
164
VCU
19.9
190
Washington
20.4
216
Murray St.
20.4
218
UNC Asheville
20.7
232
Alabama St.
24.3
333
Conclusion: Again, A&M basically looks like Alabama State from a Turnover % perspective.
Offensive Rebound %
Tennessee 30.5 (No. 115)
Florida A&M 27.5 (No. 196)
Prior opponents:
Florida St.
32.2
73
UNC Asheville
31.4
89
Tennessee
30.5
115
VCU
30
126
Washington
27.5
198
Murray St.
27.2
201
Chattanooga
25.5
234
Alabama St.
18.9
343
Conclusion: Huh. These guys are rebounding as well as Washington. (But that’s not exactly as good as you might think it should be.)
Free Throw Rate
Tennessee 38.5 (No. 69)
Florida A&M 36.8 (No. 88)
Prior opponents:
Murray St.
42
25
Florida St.
39.3
54
Washington
39
61
VCU
36.8
89
UNC Asheville
36.6
90
Alabama St.
34
125
Chattanooga
24.7
304
Conclusion: These guys are most like VCU and UNC Asheville when it comes to free throws.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s EFG% is 51.2 (No. 110), and it will be going up against a defense that is 53.9 (No. 297).
When Florida A&M has the ball
A&M’s EFG% is 39.3 (No. 347), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.4 (No. 12). Tennessee should make it pretty difficult for the Rattlers.
Conclusions
Expect Tennessee to both shoot well and make it really difficult for A&M to shoot well.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee is struggling with a turnover % of 20.1 (No. 201). A&M’s defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.9 (No. 118).
When A&M has the ball
FAMU’s turnover % is 22 (No. 296), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 18.8 (No. 199).
Conclusions
Tennessee needs to get its turnovers straightened out, and the Rattlers may provide an opportunity to make up some ground there.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 30.5 (No. 115), while A&M’s defense in that category is 37.3 (No. 348).
When FAMU has the ball
The Rattlers’ OR% is 27.5 (No. 196), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.4 (No. 41).
Conclusions
The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding on both sides of the court.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.5 (No. 69), while Florida A&M’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 285).
When A&M has the ball
The Rattlers’ FT Rate is 36.8 (No. 88), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.9 (No. 72).
Conclusions
Tennessee is really good at getting to the foul line, and A&M is pretty generous in that regard. The other side is pretty much even, so although the Rattlers are used to getting to the foul line themselves, the Vols are pretty good at defending without fouling.
Summary and Score Prediction
The Vols appear to have big advantages in shooting, rebounding, and getting to the foul line, all of which should make this a fairly easy game for the good guys tonight.
The goals for the Vols:
Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
Take care of business.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 99% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Florida A&M 50. The current line is Tennessee -30.
The anniversary we remember this week is Schiano Sunday, two years since Tennessee’s football program started its roundabout path to what’s in front of us this weekend. But it’s also two years from a program-changing win for Tennessee Basketball, a story that began and at least closed a chapter with Purdue.
On Thanksgiving Weekend 2017, Tennessee went to the Bahamas and beat #18 Purdue 78-75 in overtime. In the moment, it felt like a great thing for Tennessee’s RPI on Selection Sunday, as the win earned the Vols a shot at Villanova the next day. As we know, the 2017-18 Vols would do far more than sneak into the tournament: the win over Purdue was the beginning of everything we enjoyed the last two seasons, a chapter that ended against those same Boilermakers in another overtime in the Sweet 16 last year.
New faces, so far same results: the Vols are 5-0 and ranked 17th. And this Thanksgiving, Tennessee has another shot to earn marquee wins. One game away is Purdue, again, in what could be an epic rubber match.
But first, Florida State.
The Seminoles are first in also receiving votes and 17th in KenPom. One good thing about the ol’ Emerald Coast Classic: the Vols will get a shot at an opponent of similar quality win or lose on Friday. VCU is undefeated and ranked 20th in the AP poll. Or we can get round three with Purdue, also receiving votes but 10th in KenPom.
The best reason to beat Florida State on Friday: playing at 7:00 PM on Saturday, instead of at 4:00 PM when the Vanderbilt game kicks off.
The Seminoles have been led by Leonard Hamilton since 2003…
He got the Seminoles to the NCAA Tournament four years in a row from 2009-12, and is back on a three-year run and counting including the Elite Eight in 2018 and the Sweet 16 last year.
Two vets lead the way from those teams: senior guard Trent Forest averages 12.2 points and 4.7 assists per game, and is the primary ball-handler. Junior M.J. Walker missed the last three games with a knee injury, but is expected to play Friday. Sophomore Devin Vassell goes 6’7″ and leads the team in scoring, just ahead of Forest at 12.3 per game.
The Seminoles will be just the latest opponent to put a stud freshman on the floor against Tennessee: 6’6″ Patrick Williams was the 26th-rated player in the class of 2019 at 247 Sports (Josiah James was 22nd). He’s getting a lot more time with the ball in his hands than Josiah, scoring 10.8 points per game, blocking shots, and is yet to miss a free throw at 17-of-17.
Florida State lost at Pittsburgh by two in the opener, but then went to Gainesville and dominated Florida 63-51. They held the Gators to 14-of-50 (28%) from the field; Kerry Blackshear got to the line 14 times but didn’t hit a shot. As such, Florida State is currently seventh in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings.
On paper, this plays out like the Washington match-up: the Seminoles do it with defensive and shot-blocking, and can put a pair of seven-footers on the floor with Balsa Koprivica and Dominik Olejniczak. The Vols will be undersized and tested if they go to the rim.
Florida State is also an excellent free-throw shooting team, currently hitting 81.7% as a team. The good news here: Tennessee is one of the best in the nation at defending without fouling. The Vols are ninth nationally in defensive free throw percentage, and eighth in shot blocking percentage. So far, teams that test Tennessee at the rim have failed thanks to Pons, Fulkerson, and Nkamhoua.
Like the foul-line jumper against Washington, the names can change but the style remains for the Vols: Tennessee is second nationally in assist rate, and Lamonte Turner has handled the transition to pure point guard with excellence:
Lamonte Turner is the first @Vol_Hoops player to record 12 or more assists in two games during the same season since LaMarcus Golden (1993-94).
Turner's 17-point, 12-assist outing against Chattanooga is the 24th points and assists double-double in program history. pic.twitter.com/rdw0irrxEK
Take nothing away from LaMarcus Golden, who did that on a 5-22 team. But Turner hit that mark in five games. His shot still hasn’t come up to speed (7-of-28 from three), but he’s facilitating Tennessee’s offense like a pro.
One of these games, we’ll probably see a defense good enough to take Tennessee out of its element; we’ll see if Florida State’s guards are good enough to do that to Turner. When that happens, I’ll be curious to see where Tennessee’s offense goes for answers and how many players can create their own shot outside Bowden and Turner. But so far, the Vols are solid on both ends of the floor.
Tennessee had six top-tier non-conference games on its schedule in November and December: Washington, Florida State, Purdue/VCU, Memphis, at Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Coming into the year, a split of those six games would’ve felt like a tip of the cap. But not only did the Vols outpace expectations against Washington, Cincinnati and Wisconsin have really struggled out of the gate. The games this weekend, along with Memphis, look more and more like the best chances to earn meaningful non-conference wins before the Vols go to Kansas in January.
And for any complaints about not looking our best about Chattanooga – a rite of passage when you’ve had the kind of years we’ve enjoyed since that first Purdue game – a reminder:
