Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.
The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.
The goals for the Vols:
- Defend without fouling.
- Shoot better than they did Saturday.
- Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.
My prediction: Tennessee 68, Cincinnati 64
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: Most like VCU, and quite a bit better shooting the ball than Tennessee.
Turnover %
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Most like prior opponent Florida A&M in this category, the Bearcats are happy to turn the ball over. Well, maybe not happy, but they’ll do it. Tennessee’s better.
Offensive Rebound %
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Cincinnati is not bad at rebounding the ball (most like former opponent UNC Asheville), but Tennessee’s better.
Free Throw Rate
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: Yikes. The Bearcats are better at getting to the free throw line than any team we’ve played to date, including Memphis, which was also in the Top 15. The Vols are not bad at this, but man, these guys have a Fast Pass to the stripe.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 47.9 (No. 222) (down from 50.6 (No. 131)), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.8 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 41.5 (No. 12) Saturday when the Vols put up a stench of a shooting percentage.
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ eFG% is 50.3 (No. 142), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 40.8 (No. 5).
Conclusions
The Bearcats are no slouches at defending, but they’re not up to the level of Memphis, so Tennessee should do better tonight than they did Saturday shooting the ball. And their shooting percentage defense is still elite.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.6 (No. 181), up from 20.3 (No. 218) last week. The Bearcats’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.9 (No. 210). Memphis’ was 23.3 (No. 41) heading into last Saturday’s game.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati’s turnover % is 21.6 (No. 281) (Memphis’ was 19.7 (No. 187)), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.8 (No. 111), up from 20.2 (No. 142).
Conclusions
Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover department this evening.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 31.2 (No. 88), which is down from 32.3 (No. 70) Saturday. Cincinnati’s defense in that category is 26.4 (No. 100). That makes them better than Memphis, which was 31.1 (No. 271) prior to Saturday’s game.
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ OR% is 30.2 (No. 116) (Memphis’ was 34.8 (No. 31)), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.7 (No. 41).
Conclusions
This looks pretty even to me on Tennessee’s side of the court, and the Vols appear to have a slight advantage on the Bearcats’ side.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.8 (No. 57) (down from 40 (No. 42)), while Cincinnati’s defense against that is 26.5 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 35.3 (No. 248).
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ FT Rate is 45.7 (No. 5), compared to Memphis’, which was 44.9 (No. 6). Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.4 (No. 77), up from 26.8 (No. 84).
Conclusions
These guys are much better than Memphis at keeping you off the foul line, and they are elite at getting there themselves. The Vols are going to have to figure out how to defend without breathing on them or looking at them.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.
The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.
The goals for the Vols:
- Defend without fouling.
- Shoot better than they did Saturday.
- Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.
My prediction: Tennessee 68, Cincinnati 64
Go Vols.