Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Florida Gators. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.
Summary and Score Prediction
On the all-important effective field goal percentage metrics, Florida’s defense appears to have a vast advantage when the Vols are shooting. On the flip side, the Vols’ defense has an advantage when the Gators are shooting, but it is more muted.
The same holds true for offensive rebounding percentage: The Vols appear to have a slight advantage on their own offensive side of the court, but Florida appears to have a more pronounced advantage when they have the ball.
It will come as no surprise that Florida has the advantage on both ends when it comes to turnovers.
If there’s any major advantage for the Vols, it comes at getting to the free-throw line, where they rank 63rd against Florida’s 228th defensive counterpart. Florida does have an advantage on the other end in this category, but it is not quite as pronounced.
So, the goals for the Vols in this game:
Minimize the weaknesses: Shoot well by playing inside-out, reduce turnovers by making safe, crisp passes, box out and rebound on defense.
Maximize the strengths: Clamp down on defense, but don’t foul unless it’s in the paint, get greedy for offensive rebounds, go through defenders and get to the rim to earn as many trips to the foul line as possible.
KenPom thinks this one is a toss-up, giving Florida a slight edge and putting the score at Florida 65, Tennessee 64.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Chattanooga and Mississippi State, and much better than the Vols.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Continued problems here for the Vols. Florida protects the ball pretty well.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Even.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Advantage, Tennessee.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
Florida’s shooting defense isn’t spectacular, but Tennessee’s shooting woes are well-documented. And on the other side of the court, the Vols’ usual stout defense (the last Arkansas game notwithstanding) probably won’t have as much of an advantage as usual.
Turnover %
Conclusions
This gets more depressing every time I look at it. So, I’m typing this with my eyes closed.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
Looks like a Florida advantage here to me, both sides considered.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Tennessee’s ability to get to the free-throw line has somewhat quietly become a strength of the team. Florida plays such aggressive defense that they tend to put opponents there a lot. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee also tends to put opponents there, but Florida is not as good as Tennessee at making it happen. Advantage, Tennessee.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline and the result of the last matchup between these two teams, and the details follow.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.
Summary and Score Prediction
Previously on the Vols-Hogs, our two game previews were entitled Save Yourself with Rebounds and Hey, Look! We’re Bigger Than These Guys! Turns out, that did, in fact, matter, but it wasn’t the only thing that mattered in an 82-61 rout by the Vols. Also contributing to the blowout was a reliable Vols defense, a surprisingly hot-shooting Vols offense, and being able to get to the line almost as much as they did:
Only two weeks later, the numbers all pretty much look the same. Should we expect the same result? The Vols are probably not going to hold Mason Jones to 9 points on 1-of-10 shooting again, but if they are as inside-out focused in this one as they were the last one, you have to like their chances.
The goals for the Vols (only slightly revised from the last game):
Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss (or maybe not!), but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.
Vegas likes the Hogs at home by 5.5, and KenPom agrees, putting the score at Arkansas 67, Tennessee 62. Me, I’d like a repeat performance instead, please.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Auburn, and better than the Vols.
Turnover %
Conclusion: We have this picture of our youngest daughter’s second birthday party where she is giving an Olympic stink-eye to some poor boy innocently eating her chocolate birthday cake. I imagine Arkansas feeling the same way, except they never actually get to the stink-eye part; they just take their cake into the closet, bar the door, and eat the whole thing themselves. Bummer, too, because I like chocolate cake and when the other team gives my team the ball for free.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Woo. As we now say every time we talk about this stat, the Vols can’t seem to beat any teams in the top half of that list, but they can’t seem to lose to any in the bottom half. Hello down there, Arkansas!
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s making inroads in this category, though, so it shouldn’t be too lopsided.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
Same story different game, a struggling Vols offense goes up against a good defense, but an elite Vols defense should balance it out. Oh, and we shot nearly 50% from the field and over 37% from three when these two teams last met, while the Vols held the Hogs to 31% from the field.
Turnover %
Conclusions
The last time I looked at this for the Arkansas game, I LOL’d here. Imma do it again: LOL (through tears). Hey, we’ll get better, eventually. Plus, the last time out, Tennessee had only 11 turnovers to Arkansas’ 14, so what do these stats know?
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
Apparently, wild pigs can’t jump or grab rebounds with those short, little stubby ham legs. This is very good news and could once again be a factor in the Vols winning this game.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
On the other hand, the Hogs will both put you on the line and get there themselves. Free throw attempts were 30 for the Vols to 36 for the Hogs last game, so make ’em count!
We use Ken Pomeroy’s numbers a lot around here, and Joel writes a Four Factors preview for each contest. It’s the backbone of Pomeroy’s ratings: how well do you shoot it, how often do you turn it over, how many second chances do you give yourself via offensive rebounds, and how often do you get to the free throw line.
By far, Tennessee’s strength this season has been the way it defends: the Vols are 16th nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed. Their defense is vulnerable on the offensive glass (256th nationally) and in fouling too often (228th nationally), but the Vols do a decent job of forcing turnovers (113th).
And we also know the Vols struggle on the offensive end, more so than most teams we’ve seen around here. Tennessee is 121st overall in offensive efficiency a year after finishing third in the nation. Cuonzo Martin’s first team in 2012 is the only Vol squad to finish in triple digits in offensive efficiency this century (106th); you have to go all the way back to Kevin O’Neill’s tenure to find an offensive efficiency that was (way) worse at 278th nationally (to the surprise of no one who was watching the Vols in 1997).
But the four factor components of Tennessee’s offense aren’t all bad. The Vols are 80th nationally in getting to the line, 91st in offensive rebounds. John Fulkerson does particularly good work here, 57th nationally in free throw rate.
We know this isn’t a great shooting team. It shoots just 30.6% from the arc, with surprisingly poor performances from a number of guys we thought would do more:
Lamonte Turner was 11-of-47 (23.4%)
Jordan Bowden is still just 27.7% on the year after his burst at Auburn
Yves Pons has cooled to 32.5%
Jalen Johnson is at 31.6% off the bench
Davonte Gaines is 3-of-18 (16.7%)
I’ll be curious to see how they develop this aspect of Josiah James’ game: he’s been the most consistent shooter this season at 36.9%, but takes just 2.9 threes per game. And Santiago Vescovi is at 37.2%, taking 5.7 per game.
We also know the Vols exclusively get good offense through good ball movement. The Vols still rank second in the nation in assist percentage, getting a dish on 64.7% of their made shots. This has been a focal point of Barnes’ offense, but the last two seasons (7th nationally in 2018, 24th in 2019) the Vols also had guys who could get their own shot when they had to have it.
This Tennessee offense, with so many moving parts, would be limited no matter what. But what’s making them historically bad is what’s cost them the last two Saturdays, the biggest culprit in keeping them off the bubble: turnovers.
Tennessee turns it over on 20.8% of its possessions, 290th nationally. In league play that number swells to 21.5%, last in the SEC. And the Vols surrender a steal on 11.6% of their possessions (12.5% in league play), which ranks 348th out of 353 Division 1 teams.
That steal percentage is the worst for any Tennessee team since 2002 (11.9%), Buzz Peterson’s first season, when the Vols lost Ron Slay to an ACL tear in mid-January and you had Thaydeus Holden and Jenis Grindstaff trying to run the show; C.J. Watson played as a true freshman the next year. Peterson’s first three teams all had a slightly higher turnover percentage as well, but that’s as far back as you have to go to find a worse turnover percentage than this year.
This is also all so frustrating because we just witnessed the best year of the KenPom era for the Vols in not turning it over: last year Tennessee gave it away on just 15.8% of its possessions, 25th nationally. You can make a really good argument that this team misses Jordan Bone more than anyone.
Some good news: C.J. Watson grew into both an NBA player and the point guard of a team that turned it over very little in Bruce Pearl’s first season (17.6%, 13th nationally). You expect freshmen to have these kinds of issues, especially a player like Santiago Vescovi who just got here in January. And Vescovi is the leading culprit when it comes to turnovers, with the Vols giving the ball away on 29.6% of the possessions he’s involved in. The other leading offenders are also freshmen. Olivier Nkamhoua turns it over 28.6% of the time, and Josiah James is at 28.9% after six costly turnovers on Saturday.
So, yeah. They’re freshmen. They’ll get better. The Vols have been close to good teams and the bubble all year, but when turnovers are your greatest weakness, it’s always going to hurt a little more because it feels like you’re doing it to yourself.
Here’s the full data for turnovers and steals in the KenPom era:
This team plays so hard so often. It gets more from Yves Pons than we bargained for at the start of the year and more from John Fulkerson that we had to have as the year went on. It gets more from Santiago Vescovi than anyone in his situation should be asked to give.
When you throw all that together, even without Lamonte Turner, it became a team that scratched and clawed and fought its way to stay on the fringe, to give itself a chance in the last month of the season to still make the NCAA Tournament. That would’ve been truly remarkable, and the head coach agreed: this week in The Athletic Rick Barnes said of stealing a tournament bid, “It might be the biggest accomplishment we’ve ever had, to be honest with you, with what we’ve gone through.”
Today, at #13 Auburn, Fulkerson picked up two fouls in the first three minutes and sat the rest of the first half. He could, because Davonte Gaines came off the bench and played out of his mind, grabbing five rebounds in the first 20 minutes.
Then Vescovi hit the bench with foul trouble a few minutes later. And a scenario could’ve unfolded where the Vols struggled to function offensively, Auburn found its groove, and the Vols simply didn’t have it. Maybe we never should’ve expected them to have it this year once Lamonte Turner went down.
Instead, we got what should’ve been the Jordan Bowden game: 17 points and five assists in the first half, scoring or assisting on 10 of the Vols’ 13 made shots. He finished with a career high 28 points on just 12 shots.
The Vols led by eight at halftime, got Fulkerson back in the flow, and immediately opened it up to a 17-point advantage, 54-37, with 14:35 left.
Not only were Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes alive, they were kicking. The Vols were in the midst of their best performance of the season, and a rejuvenated Bowden changed our beliefs about this team’s ceiling.
On the other end of the floor, Vescovi was called for his fourth foul. He exited with the Vols up 17. Here are Tennessee’s next nine offensive possessions via ESPN’s play-by-play:
Jalen Johnson turnover
John Fulkerson turnover
John Fulkerson turnover
Jordan Bowden turnover
Yves Pons miss
Josiah James turnover
John Fulkerson miss
10 second violation
John Fulkerson miss
Auburn took the lead 55-54 with 8:06 to play.
The Vols didn’t fold, to their credit. Bowden’s cock-back dunk put the Vols back up three with 5:15 to play. Auburn hit a 7-0 spurt in response that featured the Vols fouling a three-point shooter and a turnover from Josiah James. Free throws from Vescovi and Bowden tied it again at 64-64; when Auburn hit a three, Vescovi hit a two to make it 67-66 Auburn with 1:15 to go.
Here, you have to credit Anfernee McLemore for hitting a really tough shot over Pons. Yves played well on both ends and had several shots rattle out, and just missed a big block on this play.
Auburn led by three with 45 seconds to go, and the Vols turned it over one more time, the sixth of the day from Josiah James. The Tigers finished it off at the free throw line, trailing 54-37 with 14:35 to go and winning 73-66.
In that piece from The Athletic, Barnes mentions a note from Admiral Schofield’s talk with the team after the Vanderbilt win: the Vols were in a similar spot three years ago, Schofield’s sophomore season in 2017. Tennessee was 14-10 (6-5) and hosting Georgia. The comparison is even more apt now: in that game the Vols were up 53-39 with 15:15 to play in Knoxville. They got J.J. Fraziered and lost by one point.
Both of those Tennessee teams played hard, played well against good teams, and gave themselves a chance. It’s been especially painful then, on these last two Saturdays, to watch the Vols give that chance away against good teams on the road by turning the ball over. Four turnovers in the last two minutes at South Carolina. Twenty-four all told today, including four in a row and six in nine possessions to let Auburn back in the game, and four others down the stretch to keep the Vols out of it. John Fulkerson finished with four turnovers, Vescovi five to just three assists. And Josiah James turned it over six times, including the last one.
It hurts more this way: play hard, give yourself a chance to overachieve, and then give that chance away. It’s worth noting what happened to those 2017 Vols after that loss to Georgia: with Robert Hubbs on the mend, Tennessee lost four of its last six, then lost to Georgia at the buzzer in the SEC Tournament, finishing 16-16 and missing not only the NCAAs but the NIT as well.
We’ll see what becomes of this Tennessee team, who played above themselves well enough to create genuine disappointment when they couldn’t finish it off. It will serve them well going forward. It just hurts a lot more today.
In the KenPom era (2002-present), Tennessee’s average strength of schedule is 27th nationally. The last three years it ranked 16th, 11th, and 25th. By this metric Tennessee played a Top 25 schedule four times in Bruce Pearl’s tenure, and never finished lower than 34th in those six years. And though it slipped a bit between the Pearl and Barnes eras (average strength of schedule from Cuonzo’s first season through Barnes’ first season: 45th), the expectation of a schedule that will help you on Selection Sunday is clearly here to stay under the current administration.
That certainly looked to be the case this season. Going in knowing the Vols would face Washington, Florida State, Purdue/VCU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Kansas? It more than passed the test.
What happened?
Washington, still 65th in KenPom, is an unbelievable 12-15 after a 10-2 start. They’ve now lost nine in a row, five by six points or less.
Florida State is 22-4 and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix, check.
VCU is 17-9, losers of three straight, next four out in the Bracket Matrix.
Memphis is 18-8 but just 7-6 in the American, the seventh-best conference in KenPom, and played most of the season without James Wiseman. They’re in two of 116 brackets in the matrix.
Cincinnati is 17-9 and has now played four consecutive overtime games, including a double overtime loss to UCF on Wednesday when a half-court prayer was answered just after the buzzer. They also played three straight overtime games in November! They’re last four in.
Wisconsin is 16-10 but 9-6 in the Big Ten, meaning they’re the closest of this group to locking up a seed other than Florida State and…
Kansas, 23-3 and still number one in KenPom, check.
The Vols got their money’s worth from the Seminoles and Jayhawks. Everyone else on what we thought would be a dynamite non-conference slate has become the bubble or worse.
Meanwhile, the SEC currently has no teams in the KenPom Top 25. Kentucky is 28th with Florida, LSU, and Auburn all in the 30’s. It’s shaping up to be the weakest SEC since 2014, when Florida went undefeated in conference play and the league put just three teams in the NCAA Tournament, including the Vols in Dayton. The matrix puts four in right now, with Alabama, Mississippi State, and Arkansas all in the first five out.
In a sense, the Vols have been betrayed by both the schedule and the conference. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 59th in KenPom. It’ll go up from here, but how far? Tennessee lost to Florida State by three and at Kansas by six. They’re competitive with the very best they’ve faced. The Vols are 64th in NET and can still get to at least 19 wins, keeping them within historical thresholds for an at-large bid at the moment. But it’s anyone’s guess on such a weak bubble.
And if that’s the case, the best argument might end up being for teams that get hot late…which is exactly what Tennessee has to have to get in anyway.
Better Late Than Never
That sense of frustration with the schedule carries over to these next two games, the start of what we’ve long known to be an end-of-season gauntlet. But Auburn just lost two straight on the road by double digits to Missouri and Georgia, both triple-digit squads in KenPom. The Tigers are still 22-4 but missing freshman Isaac Okoro, one of their most reliable scorers. Meanwhile Arkansas has lost five in a row: two in overtime, one by a single point, and a pair of blowouts at Tennessee and Florida.
So the bad news is what looked like opportunities against a Top 10 foe and a tournament team are now games against teams who’ve two and five straight. The good news: Tennessee needs wins, and perhaps now the odds are a little more in their favor.
The Vols’ only two Quad 1 wins are against VCU with Lamonte Turner and at Alabama. Both are next four out in the matrix. If you want the best win of the year and the first over a tournament lock? Here it is.
Without Okoro, Auburn fell into the bad shot selection trap at Missouri: 20-of-28 from two, but 1-of-17 from three. The Tigers also got to the line an insane 46 times (on the road!), but missed 16 free throws. Meanwhile Missouri was hot: 55% from the floor, 7-of-13 from three, and they won by a dozen.
Auburn followed their 1-of-17 performance with 4-of-26 from the arc at Georgia. They beat LSU (with Okoro) by going 18-of-44 from three (40.9%). But that was their best performance from the arc in league play, and perhaps created an unnecessary reliance. You might recall Bruce Pearl’s 2009 Vol squad, which was the worst three-point shooting team in that year’s NCAA Tournament…and then fired off 33 threes in the first round loss to Oklahoma State.
The Tigers are the worst three-point shooting team in SEC play at just 26.9% from the arc. Sure, they can get hot – Auburn is third nationally in luck via KenPom, see the LSU game most recently – but it’s clearly become an issue, especially without Okoro. The thing they’re best at is limiting second chances offensively, leading the league in offensive rebound percentage allowed. But that hasn’t been a ton of Tennessee’s game.
The most interesting match-up here: when the Tigers don’t shoot a three and go to the rim, who wins the battle between shot-blocking and drawing fouls? Tennessee is first in the SEC in blocked shots. Auburn is first in the SEC in free throw rate. Austin Wiley has the size, but Auburn’s guards have been the best at drawing fouls. Okoro was good at this, but Samir Doughty is great at it and shoots 78% once he’s at the stripe. How the Vols stop penetration, rotate, and protect the rim without fouling will go a long way to determining the outcome here.
If you’re looking for tournament scenarios, it’s not quite must-win yet. But the alternative is probably winning at Rupp, or winning multiple games in the SEC Tournament. Might as well win this one.
Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Auburn Tigers. As always, the conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
Auburn’s a better rebounding team and boy, do they shoot a lot of free throws. Other than that, things look kinda sorta even.
Summary and Score Prediction
The Auburn Tigers are on a bit of a skid here recently, having lost to two teams with losing records — Missouri and Georgia — by double digits the last two times they’ve taken the court. Prior to that, they were 22-2. Both losses could be attributed to missing Isaac Okoro, and at the time I’m writing this it’s unclear whether he’ll be back for the Tennessee game.
The numbers by themselves, though, suggest that Tennessee will have its hands full against an Auburn team elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. The Vols will have to minimize the damage done on those two fronts and hope that their still-stellar shooting defense and an increased focus on not turning the ball over are enough to make up for those disadvantages.
The goals for the Vols:
Sharpen the sword of the shooting defense; it will be needed.
Don’t turn the ball over as much as usual. Possessions will be especially valuable.
Do what you can do in boxing out, rebounding the ball, and defending without fouling. This is where they’ll either beat you or give you the game.
KenPom gives this one to Auburn and puts the score at Auburn 69, Tennessee 63. That’s spittin’ distance, at least.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Arkansas from a shooting perspective. Better than Tennessee, but not by a ton.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Most like UNC Asheville and VCU protecting the ball, and much better than Tennessee.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Oof. Most like LSU and Florida State, and waaaay to close to the top of that list that has almost always doomed this Vols team. In case you missed it, the Vols have only one win against roughly the top half of that list and have only one loss against roughly the bottom half. Bad news for the good guys Saturday.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Double oof. Auburn is the best we’ve played all year at getting to the foul line.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
The Vols have generally put up poor shooting numbers this season. Auburn’s a decent defense, so they could make things difficult. But on the other end, Tennessee’s defense is elite, and Auburn’s shooting offense isn’t anything to write home about. We’re used to not shooting particularly well, but they could get frustrated.
Turnover %
Conclusions
Not much to see here, really, although after the tongue-lashing the guys got from Rick Barnes Tuesday night, I’d expect them to put a bit more focus on not turning the ball over, and they could have some success against an Auburn defense not especially good at forcing turnovers. On the other side of the court, it looks like an even matchup as well.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
This is where the Vols are likely doomed. Auburn is an elite offensive rebounding team, and over the course of the season, Tennessee has shown little ability to keep those kinds of teams from getting what they want on the offensive glass and winning the game because of it.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
There’s also much danger here, with Auburn a Top 3 team in the country at getting free shots and Tennessee all too willing to put them there.
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
Vanderbilt’s better at shooting threes and getting to the foul line, but Tennessee’s defense is much, much better than Vandy’s.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee’s shooting offense gets a welcome reprieve tonight in playing a Vanderbilt shooting defense that is really struggling. And Tennessee’s smothering defense should frustrate Vanderbilt into poor percentages. Add to that the fact that Vanderbilt is also a terrible offensive rebounding team, and the Vols should have the advantage tonight. If there’s danger, it’s likely found at the free-throw line, as both teams tend to get there often, and both are too willing to comply.
The goals for the Vols:
Win the shooting percentages battle. Do what you do on defense, and seize the opportunity to shoot better than usual on offense.
No second shots for Vanderbilt. None.
Stay at least even on free throw attempts.
You’ll recall that the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Nashville 66-45 on January 18. KenPom says to expect something similar tonight and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 62.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Georgia and Kentucky from a shooting perspective.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Better taking care of the ball than the Vols — and most like VCU and LSU in this regard — but Tennessee’s recent trend of doing better here may negate some or all of that.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: In case you missed it, Gavin observed last week that the Vols are now 1-10 against the Top 10 teams on that list and 13-1 against the Bottom 14. Good news for the Vols tonight: Vanderbilt is a terrible offensive-rebounding team.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: These guys are really, really good at getting to the foul line. We’re climbing our way into the “We’re No Slouches, Either” category, but we’re not quite there yet.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
When the Vols are shooting, this is weakness-on-weakness, so expect Tennessee to actually shoot better tonight. On the other side of the court, the Vols should be able to really frustrate Vanderbilt.
Turnover %
Conclusions
I don’t know that this really matters so much in this game.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
The thing that matters most here is that Vanderbilt is decidedly not good at offensive rebounding, and the Vols tend to take advantage of that kind of thing.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Both teams like to get to the free-throw line, and both teams are all too willing to send the other there.
Tennessee’s at-the-wire finishes are coming in small bursts this season: two games in Destin against Florida State and VCU, both games against South Carolina, and the win at Alabama. The Vols are 3-2 in those one possession games, which is about what you’d expect; for every, “If we’d only hit a three against Memphis (a four-point loss),” there’s an, “If Lamonte doesn’t hit that shot against VCU…”.
The particular pain of the South Carolina finish was four turnovers in the last two minutes, a game the Vols led by six with 3:40 to play. Of Tennessee’s most painful losses this season, this one felt the most self-inflicted.
The most costly is still Texas A&M. But because the Vols lost that one, losing a game you had won at South Carolina on February 15 certainly feels like the most devastating outcome this season. The Vols are hurting. Are they finished?
Last season the SEC had five teams finish in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 25, plus Florida at #26. In 2018 it was four Top 25 teams plus Texas A&M at #29. In 2017 Kentucky and Florida finished in the top five, and South Carolina’s run to the Final Four landed them at #24.
Right now, the SEC leader in KenPom is Kentucky…at 30th. Auburn, LSU, and Florida are all in the 30’s, with Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi State in the 40’s and the Vols at 57.
Tennessee’s strength of schedule should still finish strong. Strong enough to feel good about any path to 19 wins? Eh…
So, let’s start here: the first truly must-win game of the season is tonight. Tennessee cannot lose to 1-11 Vanderbilt in Knoxville after already losing to Texas A&M. If that happens, stop reading.
With a win tonight, the Vols would go to 15-11 (7-6) with five games to play: at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn. It’s a stout finish with four Quad 1 opportunities. Beat Vanderbilt, and then the conversation becomes about what each of those wins could do for you.
We used Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology and teamcast to play out multiple scenarios for Tennessee. The idea for this team post-Lamonte has always been to get better as the season went along, with a chance to show that progress at the end. To get back on the bubble, the Vols will either have to do that at the end of the regular season, or at the SEC Tournament in Nashville.
A few scenarios – all of which include beating Vanderbilt – that would get the Vols in the conversation on Selection Sunday:
The Lloyd Christmas: 17-14 with a run to the SEC Tournament Finals
Tennessee wins its home games (Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn) and goes 0-3 on the road. The Vols finish the regular season 17-14 (9-9).
Tennessee wins an 8/9 game in the SEC Tournament, then beats Kentucky on Friday, then beats Florida/Mississippi State/South Carolina on Saturday, then loses a close game to Auburn or LSU in the finals. The Vols are 20-15 on Selection Sunday, picking up three Quad 1 wins in a span of eight days.
Torvik prediction: First Four Out
The Most Reasonable Path: 18-13 plus two wins in the SEC Tournament
Tennessee wins its home games (Vandy, Florida, Auburn) and takes advantage of a good match-up against Arkansas again, this time in Fayetteville. The Vols finish the regular season 18-13 (10-8).
Tennessee wins a 7/10 game in the SEC Tournament, beats either Auburn or LSU on Friday, then loses to the other on Saturday. The Vols are 20-14 on Selection Sunday.
Torvik prediction: First Four Out
The I Knew They Had It In Them: 19-12 plus no disaster in the SEC Tournament
Tennessee wins its home games, wins in Fayetteville, and takes advantage of what has been an unusually lucky Auburn team on the road as well. The Vols finish the regular season on a 5-1 spurt, losing only at Rupp, and are 19-12 (11-7).
If the Vols are a five seed in the SEC Tournament, they beat the 12/13 seed on Thursday.
Torvik prediction: Dayton (with room for improvement in Nashville)
If we’re courting realism here, the Vols really need to go at least 3-2 in those last five games; if your plan involves a run to the SEC Tournament finals, hey, let’s just win the SEC Tournament. Right now KenPom gives Tennessee 1.96 wins in those last five games. It’ll take an upset and at least one road win.
So we reach a place we found ourselves at the end of what became Cuonzo Martin’s final season: unlikely, but not impossible. Because of Tennessee’s record, we’re also still in the middle ground this team has occupied post-Lamonte: the Vols continue to hang out between 11-13 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings (as in, the Vols would be favored by 11-13 points on a neutral floor against an average team in a game with 100 possessions). Six Tennessee teams have finished between 10.5 and 12.7 in KenPom. Bruce Pearl’s final team made the NCAA Tournament, three others made the NIT, and two – Buzz Peterson’s first team and Rick Barnes’ second – stayed home at .500. There ain’t much space between 18-13 and 16-15. One goes to the SEC Tournament needing a couple of wins to get in the bubble conversation. One goes to the SEC Tournament needing a couple of wins to make the NIT.
And so, 25 games into this season, all the options are still on the table for this team. All roads lead through Vanderbilt tonight. And if they do, we’ll get at least one more week of asking if they have anything more to give.
For NCAA Tournament purposes, Tennessee’s formula remains much the same as it was two weeks ago: the Vols need wins, and their closing schedule should be strong enough that it doesn’t matter much how they get to 18-13 or 19-12 as long as they get there. Coming into the month, we looked at historical data on teams earning the final at-large bids: since tournament expansion to 68 in 2011, no team has earned an at-large bid with less than 19 wins or more than 15 losses. Three different SEC teams got in at 19-15 in the last three years.
A 17-14 (9-9) finish could send the Vols to Nashville with a chance to get to 19-15 by way of two SEC Tournament wins. But the uniqueness of Tennessee’s case – games with and without Lamonte Turner – makes me think you really need to get to at least 18 regular season wins to give yourself a more realistic chance.
The NCAA’s NET ratings are too new for reliable historical data, but last year the four teams who went to Dayton – Arizona State, Belmont, St. John’s, and Temple – finished 63rd, 47th, 73rd, and 56th. Ohio State earned the final non-Dayton at-large bid at 55th. Last year’s 10 seeds – Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, and Seton Hall – finished 31st, 43rd, 61st, and 57th. The Vols are currently 63rd in NET, so they’re within the margin on a one-year sample size. The Gators were 19-15 last season but finished 14th nationally in strength of schedule.
Tennessee is tough to predict on that front – the Vols are 53rd currently in KenPom’s SOS rating – and that number may go down a bit after the Vols host Vanderbilt on Tuesday. But it will only go up after that – at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn – I’m just not sure exactly how high. Bart Torvik’s predictive data projects it to finish 39th. Warren Nolan’s projects it to finish fifth. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.
One of the biggest problems Tennessee has right now is Washington, who’s been in absolute free fall: the Huskies have lost seven in a row, five of them by six points or less, and are 2-11 after a 10-2 start. They’ve fallen out of Quadrant 1, leaving the Vols with just two such victories (VCU, at Alabama). The good news on that: it removes some of the Lamonte Turner bias from the equation.
The Vols, of course, will get at least five Quad 1 opportunities in their final seven games (home vs NET 1-30, neutral vs NET 1-50, away vs NET 1-75). That starts with an on-fire South Carolina team in Columbia tomorrow.
If you’re looking for the most straightforward path to 18-13 (10-8), it’s winning out at home (Vandy, Florida, Auburn) and beating South Carolina on the road. That scenario also gives the Vols an elite win over Auburn (in the season finale), a happier scenario than getting to 18 wins but losing to Auburn and Kentucky twice. After watching the Vols dismantle Arkansas on Tuesday, if you want to replace tomorrow with the February 26th trip to Fayetteville as the most winnable road game, fine by me. KenPom’s math still gives the Vols slightly better odds in Columbia at 41% vs 32% at Arkansas.
So nothing about Tennessee’s NCAA fate will be decided at South Carolina. The Vols need 18 or 19 wins to go to the SEC Tournament feeling like they’ve got a real chance. Lose tomorrow and you need to go 4-2 down the stretch. Win tomorrow and you’re already at 15; follow it up with a home win over Vanderbilt (more can’t-lose than must-win), and you go to a CBS game at Auburn at 16-10 (8-5), and you’re back in the conversation much faster.
Either way, the Vols just need wins. And this one will be harder to come by than we bargained for.
This chicken is spicy and last time it gave me heartburn.
Tennessee beat South Carolina 56-55 on January 11 with heavy usage from the word “despite”: the Vols made just 14 shots and went 25.9% from the floor. The latter would’ve been a decade-low if not for the 25% performance against Memphis. But the Vols held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, the Gamecocks hit just two threes on thirteen attempts, and most importantly, the Vols went 22-of-28 at the free throw line.
That loss dropped South Carolina to 8-7 (0-2), their third straight defeat including one at home to the Hatters of Stetson. And so right on cue, they beat Kentucky the next game out. And now they’ve won seven of nine.
The schedule hasn’t been overly challenging after Kentucky – they lost at Auburn by 13 and won at Arkansas by two – but they’re getting better along the way. They just beat Texas A&M by 20 and won at Georgia by 16 in a game they led by 24 with four minutes to play. Confidence is high.
As you’d expect, it’s defense: at Georgia they went just 11-of-19 from the line and 6-of-17 from the arc and still flat out dominated. They held the Dawgs to 3-of-24 from the arc and Anthony Edwards to 0-of-7, and turned Georgia over 19 times. Texas A&M started the game on a 9-0 spurt, then South Carolina went on a 61-21 (!!!) run. The Aggies turned it over 20 times and shot 28.6% from two and 25.9% from three.
If you’re looking for the best defense in conference play, it’s this one. The Gamecocks are first in effective FG% allowed, first in three point defense (25.7%), second in steals, third at defending inside the arc, and fourth in turnovers forced, blocked shots, and offensive rebounds allowed. It’s a robust unit that can bang with anyone with Maik Kotsar inside surrounded by four players 6’4″ and taller. Offensively in conference play, they’re more or less our equivalent – the Vols are seventh in offensive efficiency in league play, the Gamecocks eighth – but their defense makes a tremendous difference. The home losses to Stetson and Boston University cost them just about everything when it comes to the bracket, but this is not a team you want to play right now.
But since we have to, might as well go back to what worked last time, and what is far and away their greatest weakness:
Get The Whistle
South Carolina is last in the SEC in free throw rate allowed, getting called for contact on 53.4% of opponent attempts. And they are last in the SEC by a comical amount in free throw shooting at just 62.9% from the line. That game you just saw against Arkansas, where you complained about all the fouls? That’s the one you want tomorrow.
Nothing will be easy against South Carolina’s defense, but a few things have changed for the Vols offensively since January 11. John Fulkerson hadn’t quite leveled up yet, though he played well against the Gamecocks the first time at 5-of-7. He followed that up with the 2-of-2 performance at Georgia. Since then, Fulkerson averages nine attempts per game. He’s still 13th nationally in true shooting percentage (now 0-for-1 with a three attempt on the board). When he played well offensively against South Carolina it was more of a surprise. Now it’s the expectation and the focal point of Tennessee’s offense.
In turn, Jordan Bowden took 17 shots against the Gamecocks the first time and made just one of them, including 1-of-12 from three. Since then, Bowden averages 12.1 shots per game and 4.3 threes per game. He’s still there, but he’s attacking the rim more, drawing fouls more, and I’d imagine feeling less of a burden that he’s all or nothing for this team without Lamonte.
And January 11 was game three for Santiago Vescovi, featuring three assists and seven turnovers. Again, South Carolina leads the league in steals, so I wouldn’t expect perfection this time. But here’s a fun little chart:
Santiago Vescovi Assists, Turnovers, Turnovers Per Minute
Opponent
Minutes
TO
TO/Min
Assists
A/TO
LSU
34
9
0.26
4
0.44
at Missouri
19
5
0.26
2
0.40
South Carolina
22
7
0.32
3
0.43
at Georgia
25
2
0.08
3
1.50
at Vanderbilt
25
5
0.20
2
0.40
Ole Miss
22
2
0.09
4
2.00
at Kansas
32
0
0.00
3
3.00
Texas A&M
37
2
0.05
6
3.00
at Mississippi St
31
3
0.10
5
1.67
at Alabama
38
1
0.03
5
5.00
Kentucky
39
3
0.08
2
0.67
Arkansas
31
3
0.10
8
2.67
I’d imagine Vescovi will play more than 22 minutes this time.
There are also rumblings the Vols might get Josiah-Jordan James back in the lineup, which means Vescovi and Bowden might not have to play 38 minutes. I’m curious to see if we get any Eastern European showdown this time with Plavsic vs Kotsar, but if JJJ is back the Vols can keep minutes balanced all over the floor with Pons and Fulkerson at the four and five.
Fulkerson is more consistent, Bowden won’t shoot that poorly or that often, and Vescovi is far more reliable than the first time around. But the way you beat this team remains: get to the rim, make them foul you, and don’t be afraid to get physical with them on the other end.
6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. It’s big. They’re all big now.
Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
Summary and Score Prediction
With both Tennessee and South Carolina sporting excellent shooting defenses, the biggest factor will probably be which team is able to solve the problems created by the other and shoot a decent percentage anyway. For the Vols, the best opportunity to make this happen is to drive to the basket where the percentages are better and where South Carolina is likely to foul and put you on the line. Tennessee’s vulnerable in the turnover department and on the boards when the Gamecocks are shooting.
The goals for the Vols:
Solve the Gamecocks’ defense and shoot a higher percentage by driving to the basket and getting fouled.
Box out and rebound when South Carolina is shooting.
Don’t give the game away on turnovers.
You’ll recall that the Vols won the early matchup with the Gamecocks 56-55 in Knoxville. KenPom gives this one to the Gamecocks and puts the score at South Carolina 69, Tennessee 66.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Basically, us. Kind of like playing Mississippi or Missouri.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Most like Mississippi and Kansas in the turnovers department. More careful with the ball than we are.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Oh, a really good offensive rebounding team. Most like Florida State and Cincinnati.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Again, basically us. Most like playing Alabama or Missouri.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
Two struggling shooting offenses going up against really, really good shooting defenses.
Turnover %
Conclusions
I really need to start putting trends in here because I feel like Tennessee is improving in turnovers and is being anchored down by its season-long numbers. But this shows potential trouble for the Vols if they haven’t improved, as South Carolina is pretty good at forcing turnovers.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
There’s danger on the glass when the Gamecocks are shooting.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Well. There’s some welcome good news. Tennessee isn’t exactly what you would call stellar at getting to the line (although, again, they’ve been doing better recently), but South Carolina likes to roll out the red carpet and pre-program your GPS to help you find your way there. We tend to do that a bit ourselves, but not quite to the extent SC does.
