Category Archives: Basketball

Ten games in, we’d normally be 33% of the way through the regular season. But depending on whether Tennessee’s game with South Carolina gets rescheduled, we’re more like 40-42% of the way home this year. Either way, we’ve got enough data to draw a couple of meaningful conclusions about this team.

Their defense still sets them apart: 87.1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings is second nationally, and still the best for any Tennessee team ever. I still think the offense played better than it felt at Texas A&M, in part because they got a lot of action late in the shot clock: “This possession isn’t going anywhere, wait no here’s a bucket…”. On Sunday evening the Vols are 27th in KenPom’s offensive ratings, flirting with that dual Top 20 set every national champion has.

But the most striking thing about the offense continues to be how truly balanced it is.

Through these first ten games, Tennessee’s top seven scorers all average between 8-12 points per game. It makes the Vols harder to scout, harder to defend. Five of those seven have led the team in scoring already, but Santiago Vescovi’s 23 on Saturday are still the team’s season high.

And we really haven’t seen anything like that on a tournament team at Tennessee.

This year should/will make 10 NCAA Tournament teams from Tennessee in the last 16 years. The other nine had either four or five players each account for at least 10% of Tennessee’s total points (it jumps up to six players in 2006 and 2009 if you round up from 9.5%+).

But these Vols currently feature seven players accounting for at least 10% of Tennessee’s points:

Bailey	16.1%
Fulkerson	15.1%
Vescovi	13.4%
Springer	13.0%
Johnson	11.1%
James	10.8%
Pons	10.2%

Offensively, Tennessee’s best teams have leaned either to the one-two punch, or far more balance:

One-Two Punch

Year	1st Scorer	% of Pts	2nd Scorer	% of Pts	Top 2
2007	Lofton	26.1%	J. Smith	19.1%	45.2%
2011	Hopson	24.1%	Harris	21.7%	45.8%
2014	McRae	26.2%	Stokes	21.2%	47.4%

In each of these cases, Tennessee’s top two scorers nearly outdid the rest of the team by themselves. Doing it this way can make your ceiling heavily reliant on what the third guy can give you: see Josh Richardon’s late emergence in Tennessee’s 2014 run. The 2007 Vols were guard dominant, still playing Dane Bradshaw post minutes while Ramar Smith was the team’s third leading scorer. And in 2011, there really wasn’t much happening behind Hopson and Harris, and little fluid offense overall beyond those two getting their own shots: Cameron Tatum was the third-leading scorer at 12.5% of the team’s points, the lowest for any third scorer on these tournament teams.

You can find the more balanced groups simply by looking at how much each team’s leading scorer contributed:

Balance

Year	Leading Scorer	% of Total Points
2014	McRae	26.2%
2007	Lofton	26.1%
2011	Hopson	24.1%
2019	Williams	22.8%
2009	T. Smith	22.2%
2006	Lofton	21.2%
2018	Williams	20.5%
2010	Chism	19.2%
2008	Lofton	18.7%
2021	Bailey	16.1%

In 2008, Tyler Smith’s arrival (and Chris Lofton’s health) made Tennessee far more diverse offensively, with great results. Tyler Smith also skews the 2010 math somewhat after being dismissed in early January, but Chism, Hopson, Prince, and Maze all ended up scoring between 14-19% of that team’s points overall, a strong sense of balance amongst that group.

Tennessee’s best offensive team walked the line between both: two years ago, Grant Williams had 22.8% of Tennessee’s points, Admiral Schofield 20%. But it was Jordan Bone’s offensive maturity – going from 9.8% of Tennessee’s points in 2018 to 16.4% in 2019, the third-leading scorer – that made a huge difference, while Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden continued to do their thing.

At the 40% mark, we shouldn’t expect these Vols to have a breakout offensive superstar. But I’m not sure we fully know what to expect beyond that, simply because we’ve never seen a Tennessee team rely on so many guys to get it done. That means one of the biggest unanswered questions is, “Who gets it done in crunch time?” Without Jaden Springer against Alabama and with John Fulkerson off the floor, Tennessee struggled. The late-game answer against Cincinnati and Arkansas was getting to the free throw line, with John Fulkerson a key component.

KenPom projects the Vols to play four one-possession games left on their schedule (at Florida, Kansas, at Kentucky, at LSU). The ebb and flow of a season suggests we’re going to see more than that in these last 14-15 games. Keep an eye on the crunch-time lineups.

The lead story should continue to be Tennessee’s defense. But the extraordinary, “It’s not about me,” balance of Tennessee’s offense is, so far, equally unheard of around here.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Aggies give the ball away like they’re downsizing and moving to another country for the rest of their lives. Also, they’re advertising an all-you-can-eat buffet on the offensive boards on their dime, so expect Tennessee to benefit from a ton of extra opportunities through turnovers and second-chance possessions.

The bad news: Texas A&M draws fouls like roadkill draws flies. The Vols’ ability to defend without fouling has recently fallen from the lofty perch of the elite, and although they’re still very good in this regard, they’ll be challenged today. Expect more trips to the foul line than normal for the villains and hope it doesn’t matter.

Vegas has the Vols as 10.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 129.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 70, Texas A&M 59.

KenPom likes the Vols by 9 and puts the score at Tennessee 67, Texas A&M 58, which translates into a 78% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine also likes the Vols by 9 points (Tennessee 66, Texas A&M 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Decided advantage for the Vols here. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the Aggies are No. 97.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Ags are about like the Vols here, good, but not as good as Colorado or Arkansas at hitting from the field.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ooh. Smells bad, and that’s good. Actually, now that I’m looking at it again, that’s a disparity that involuntarily triggers a chuckle.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols are slightly better on the o-boards, but TAMU isn’t bad there, either.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Goodness. These guys get to the free-throw line better than all but five teams in the country.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols have a chance to shoot a better percentage from the field today than they usually do, but their shooting defense has slipped quite a bit the last couple of games. They could ratchet that back up again today against the Aggies.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Both teams are extremely good at forcing turnovers. Fortunately, Tennessee is also good at not turning the ball over, while A&M seems to have reverse magnetism in this regard.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The Vols should be able to rack up offensive rebounds at will today. Things should be about normal on the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee sending opponents to the foul line has also taken a bit of a dive lately, but they’re still good at defending without fouling. They will, however, be going up against a team that absolutely excels at drawing fouls. That’s something to watch today and could well be a key to the game.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Arkansas Razorbacks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee’s defense has another tough test this evening as the Hogs are one of the best-shooting teams the Vols have played this season. In fact, the whole game figures to be a defensive contest, as both teams know how to keep opposing offenses from posting good shooting percentages. Neither team turns the ball over very much, both get after the offensive boards, and the difference in getting to the foul line is marginal.

Here’s our humble suggestion on what to watch for:

1. Learn to love defense, as both the Vols and the Hogs look like they’re built to make opposing offenses look ugly.
2. With most everything else being something close to equal, the winner is likely going to have to play a clean game and make the most of any advantage. Fortunately for the Vols, their numbers suggest that a slightly better defense should be the difference in the game.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Arkansas 67, which translates into a 73% chance of winning. Vegas likes the Vols by 8.5 and puts the over/under at 141.5, so projects the score to be around 76-67, Vols.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by only six points (Tennessee 70, Arkansas 64).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That’s making things look pretty darn even. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Arkansas is receiving votes. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 8, and the Hogs are No. 40.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Arkansas is the best-shooting team the Vols have played so far this season, with the exception of Colorado.

Turnover %

Conclusion: And they are the best at protecting their possession of the ball.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: And also the best at offensive rebounding, although the Vols are even better on the o-boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Hogs don’t get to the free throw line nearly as often as do the Missouri Tigers, but they’re head-of-the-pack at this among teams the Vols have played this season.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so if you were frustrated by the way the Vols shot against Missouri, get ready for a possible repeat of that, as the Hogs are good at keeping opponents from sinking shots.

The Vols will return the favor on the other end of the floor. If you’re watching with someone who thinks both teams are just bad, rev up the whole “it probably has something to do with the defense, don’tcha think” conversation.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Neither team is giving up many turnovers, although Tennessee’s defense is more likely to stress Arkansas in this regard than vice versa.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Again, both teams are pulling down offensive boards at a good clip. Both respective defenses are going to make that more difficult this game, with Tennessee appearing to have a slight edge.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Vols aren’t terrible at getting to the foul line, but they are better at it than the Hogs. And one more time — both defenses are going to have a not insignificant impact on that. Tennessee’s defense is better at defending without fouling, though.

Go Vols.

It makes sense, especially in pandemic times, that just when you’re feeling most confident about your team, you’re brought swiftly back to earth.

Tennessee’s 71-63 loss to Alabama dropped the Vols from sixth to eighth in KenPom, though the Vols now have the best defense in the nation in those ratings thanks to an equally rough day for Texas Tech. The Crimson Tide were battle tested and loved the three, and in the second half it loved them back.

The three biggest factors in Saturday’s loss were (hopefully) varying degrees of weirdness. Let’s take them in order from most to least weird, or how much we should be worried about them showing up again in the future.

Bama shooting 10-of-20 from three

After going 2-of-9 in the first half, Alabama was a ridiculous 8-of-11 from the arc in the second half, pushing the lead to double digits quickly then never allowing the Vols to get back within less than six. How often is a shooting display like that going to happen?

The good news: not very often.

Last year only Kentucky in Knoxville hit 50% from the arc against the Vols, and that was only 5-of-10. Two years ago, we saw how dangerous any team can be when they get this hot from three, as Colgate went 15-of-29 from the arc in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols also survived South Carolina hitting 14-of-23 in Knoxville, but still won by scoring 85 points of their own. The Gamecocks also hit 7-of-13 in Knoxville in 2017; no team hit that high a percentage in 2018.

In general, this kind of game tends to happen only once or twice a year, unless you’re just incredibly unlucky: see Cuonzo Martin’s last team, which was really good defensively but saw NC State and Texas A&M hit 50% or better from the arc in Knoxville, then Michigan hit 11-of-20 in the Sweet 16. Overall five teams hit 50%+ against the 2014 Vols from three, helping them finish 341st in luck in KenPom.

You can tip your hat to Alabama, and hope the Vols maybe close out better in the corner going forward. But overall, this part should be more of an anomaly.

Vols missing nine free throws

Tennessee still shoots 74.7% from the line, 59th nationally. So nothing to worry about here just yet. But you only have to go back to…the previous game to find Tennessee shooting something worse than they did against Alabama at the stripe: 17-of-26 (65.4%) against the Tide, 14-of-24 (58.3%) at Missouri.

John Fulkerson was 3-of-8 against Alabama, but is still 27-of-35 on the season. Victor Bailey is 17-of-19, Santiago Vescovi 10-of-10, Josiah James 15-of-16. The biggest concerns here so far: Keon Johnson is 14-of-24, E.J. Anosike is 12-of-18.

You’re not going to shoot 75%+ every night, but other than those two guys getting better, I’m not worried here just yet.

Lineup Issues

In the first half, Jaden Springer got hurt, Yves Pons sat with two fouls, and Santiago Vescovi picked up his second (and eventually a Rick Barnes technical) with four minutes to play. Tennessee led 26-23 at that point. UT’s offensive possessions in those last four minutes went:

• Keon Johnson missed front end of one-and-one
• Drew Pember turnover after two offensive rebounds
• Drew Pember missed layup
• John Fulkerson hits 1-of-2 free throws
• Victor Bailey made jumper
• Rick Barnes deadball technical
• Keon Johnson missed layup

The Vols went into the locker room trailing 31-29. More unusual lineups ensued when Barnes benched Fulkerson for the final eight minutes, sticking with Vescovi, Bailey, Johnson, James, and Pons. That group was down by nine at the under eight timeout, and lost by eight, never getting closer than six. They outscored Alabama only 9-8 in those final eight minutes, with two of those Bama points on late fouls: good defensively, but inefficient offensively.

Overall, Tennessee’s scoring remains incredibly balanced with seven players between 8-13 points per game. But if you take it per minute, Tennessee’s most efficient scoring options look like this:

• Jaden Springer 22.8 points per 40 minutes
• Victor Bailey 19.9
• John Fulkerson 16.6
• Keon Johnson 16.2

Without Springer and Fulkerson down the stretch, the Vols looked like they lacked an identity offensively in crunch time. When things were tight against Cincinnati, it was Fulkerson drawing fouls (and hitting free throws) that pushed the Vols back in front, followed by a big shot from Pons. Down the stretch, there was a lot of one-on-one stuff from Bailey and Johnson, but it wasn’t enough.

In good news/bad news, Arkansas will provide a similar challenge on Wednesday: they love to go fast and shoot threes, and they join Missouri and Alabama as the kind of team Tennessee might see in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. We’ll see if Jaden Springer can go and how much Fulkerson plays; I bet Arkansas shoots less than 50% from the arc and the Vols miss fewer than nine free throws. But the lineup stuff will be most intriguing, even if the Vols don’t need a bucket down the stretch.

The Vols did their thing against Missouri, leading by 19 in the first nine minutes, 25+ for stretches of the second half, and 20 at the final buzzer. It wasn’t close, but it could’ve been closer in one regard: Missouri got to the line 30 times, but only made 18 of them.

It’s only the second time all year a team had more than 20 free throw attempts against the Vols, and the first was a function of pace: Saint Joseph’s went 15-of-21 at the stripe in 78 possessions, ten more than the Vols’ current average. File that away for the next two games, when Alabama and Arkansas will both try to speed things up and shoot a ton of threes. It’s the right order to catch it in, I think, as the Hogs do it better than the Tide so you ramp up along the way. It did not, however, work for St. Joe’s, who scored 66 points but gave up 102.

So I’m not worried about teams that try to run and gun with the Vols. But if we’re realistically at the point of trying to earn a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, it’s worth diving into any possible weakness. It’s not foul trouble alone; Tennessee is deep enough to handle that, I think. But getting to the stripe is by far the best way to try to score on Tennessee.

This #Vols hoops defense reminds me a bit of Bama’s secondary in football. So good at playing as physically as possible without getting whistled for it.

But it's a fine line in hoops and some nights will feature a lot of whistles. Depends on the crew.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) December 31, 2020

Last year Tennessee was 1-7 when their opponents shot 27 or more free throws. The lone victory came against Arkansas, who shot a season-high 36 against the Vols, but Tennessee shot 30 themselves. You had to really get up there two years ago, but Tennessee was 1-4 when teams shot 30+ free throws in 2019. Four of those five games went to overtime, and it’s interesting to note that none of them shot it particularly well when they arrived, including Purdue’s 16-of-33 at the stripe in the Sweet 16. Obviously, some of this makes sense if you’re fouling down late. But it still holds true that when Tennessee’s best team got in trouble, it showed up mostly clearly at the line.

It’s a trade Rick Barnes’ teams have often made at Tennessee, whether by preference or personnel: emphasize aggressive defense, try to force turnovers, and hope you come out in ahead in the balance on the whistle. It is, in may ways, the opposite of what Cuonzo Martin’s defenses did at Tennessee: defend without fouling and eliminate offensive rebounds. Instead of not giving a team any second chances, Barnes’ Vols – especially this team – prefer to create turnovers on the first chance.

His first team was average in both regards, but starting in 2017 the Vols have been whistled more often. Via KenPom, here’s Tennessee’s national rank in free throw rate allowed under Barnes:

Year	FT Rate
2021	69
2020	248
2019	232
2018	264
2017	321
2016	180

Even what we thought of as a really good defensive team in 2018 struggled here. No surprise, they went 2-4 when allowing 29+ free throw attempts.

Keep an eye out next week: the Vols go to Texas A&M, currently third in the nation in offensive free throw rate with Emanuel Miller one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls. For the Vols, this has mostly been a backcourt issue with Vescovi and Keon Johnson picking up the quickest whistles, but per minute those honors belong to backup post players in Anosike and Nkamhoua.

But here again, the Vols put Mizzou on the stripe 30 times…and won by 20. Right now the weaknesses go under the microscope, both because this Tennessee team is capable of so much, and so far it’s the only way to see them.

Okay.

Missouri was undefeated with wins over Oregon, Wichita State, and Illinois. They’re ranked 12th in the country.

And Tennessee jumped them 23-4 in the first 8.5 minutes. The Tigers never got within single digits.

Defense: everywhere. Offense: everyone. This is Tennessee.

Missouri shot 36.4% from the floor, 3-of-16 from the arc, and turned it over 21 times. If there was a flaw tonight, it was some combination of Tennessee’s over-aggressiveness and the referees’ response in calling so many fouls. Missouri shot 30 free throws, but missed a dozen of them. And Yves Pons had four soul-crushing blocks.

Offensively, it’s like drawing names out of a hat: 15 from Vescovi, 13 from Pons and Springer, 11 from Fulkerson, 9 from Bailey. The Vols shot 50% from the floor, took just seven threes, and made five of them.

This Tennessee team should move into second place in program history in the KenPom era, passing another Cuonzo Martin squad from 2014. We’ll need more data to figure out if they’re better than the 2019 squad. But every data point with this team, as with that one, is a joy.

It’s one SEC game, but when it’s on the road against the only other ranked team in the league, you’re allowed to dream. And here’s what Tennessee should put out there in front of themselves:

• Win the league outright, for the first time since 2008 and only the third time ever.
• Get a one seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever. If Gonzaga and Baylor are playing at a level above everyone else, the only way you guarantee you don’t see them until the Final Four is to earn one of the other one seeds.

Watching this team, these aren’t farfetched ideas.

This was a late tip tonight. But you should watch this team. A lot.

It’s Alabama next, Saturday at 6:00 PM in Knoxville. One down, 17 to go.

Go Vols.

Big, big game tonight.

Cuonzo’s teams make a good living off of frustrating their opponents. When it happens, it can really happen: his second Tennessee team beat Kentucky by 30, his third beat Virginia by 35 and won five straight by 15+ points at the end of the regular season and the first round of the SEC Tournament. And they thrive at home: even last year, a 15-16 Missouri team beat Florida by 16 and Auburn by a dozen in CoMo.

So one of the most impressive things the 2019 Vols did came quietly: three days after opening SEC play with a 96-50 beat down of Georgia, Tennessee went to Mizzou. Cuonzo’s team did their thing: they held Grant Williams to four points on 1-of-8 shooting. It was his lowest point total of the year, and only one of three games when he didn’t hit double figures.

Then they took away Tennessee’s ball movement. The Vols finished with just 12 assists, tied for their lowest total all year in victory. Only LSU (10), Kentucky (11), and Auburn (11) held Tennessee to less, all Sweet 16 teams.

Missouri led by nine with seven minutes to play in the first half.

Tennessee won by 24.

That’s how good the 2019 Vols were: when forced to go to Plan C on the road, they still dominated. When Grant was held in check and the offense couldn’t create good looks through good ball movement, it was Jordan Bowden (20 points) and Kyle Alexander (14 points, 17 rebounds) who got the job more than done.

This Missouri team is plenty good, and plenty capable of frustration. What’s this Tennessee team’s Plan C?

…and are we sure we’ve figured out their Plan A yet?

The answers to any plan will include, “Defense, obviously.” The Vols are currently in the Top 13 nationally in all four defensive factors. That’s, uh, pretty good.

Offensively, I think Plan A is still to run through John Fulkerson. Last year Fulky was one of the nation’s surest bets from inside the arc, and he got to the line as well. He’s still doing that, and currently 21-of-23 from the stripe this year. The raw numbers are different because everyone is playing fewer minutes this season. But if you need a bucket down the stretch, I think #10 is getting the ball.

We haven’t really had to see Plan B yet. When Cincinnati took a 53-51 lead with six minutes to play, it was defense first – they didn’t score for another 4.5 minutes – and Fulkerson doing the dirty work. He hit four straight free throws to put Tennessee back on top, then it was Yves Pons adding a jumper to push it out to two possessions. That part we know.

The new pieces remain fascinating, especially as they all seem so capable. Victor Bailey leads the team in scoring at 13.2 points per game, and any one of seven Vols seem capable of leading them in scoring on any given night. It’s a little early for this kind of fun, but right now the Vols have six players responsible for at least 10% of the team’s points, and Pons is just outside at 9.3%. Among our recent NCAA Tournament teams, only the 2006 Vols had six different players account for at least 10% of the team’s points; no one else had more than five. This bunch might get seven. We’ll see.

One of these plans feels like, “out-talent them.” Get your own shots, let the freshmen do their thing, etc. Missouri probably isn’t the one to find out if that’s good enough against. The things Tennessee does well – get high percentage shots, don’t turn it over, get offensive rebounds – it will take a particularly good defense and/or a particularly cold shooting night to fall short with. And Tennessee’s defense is so good, as we saw against Colorado and Cincinnati, option number two may not matter anyway.

But in a game like this, how much of Tennessee’s offense will still go through Fulkerson? And if Missouri takes away Plan A again, where will the Vols turn this time?

Lots of questions tonight, and plenty of intrigue and possibility in the answers. 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Missouri Tigers tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

The commencement of the SEC basketball season brings with it the toughest test so far for the Vols, as they travel to CoMo to take on CuoMa’s Missouri Tigers. The Tigers’ numbers aren’t quite as impressive as are the Vols’, but they are so much closer than the rest of the competition to date that everything could change, especially if the Vols throw good money after bad by getting frustrated into taking more bad shots to make up for misses and if they lose the battle for free-throw-attempts.

Here’s our humble suggestion on what to watch for:

1. Expect both offenses to look ugly and for some level-headed commentator to eventually pipe up that one person’s ugly offense is another’s beautiful defense. Shots will probably do a lot of clanking for both teams, but as long as you end up with the most points on the scoreboard, you’re good.
2. Expect trips to the free-throw line to be at a premium. Both teams play solid defense, and whichever one does the best job at defending without giving up free trips to the free line may well win this one on that basis alone.

KenPom likes the Vols by 2 and puts the score at Tennessee 67, Missouri 65, which translates into a 57% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, still discovering its legs, likes the Vols by 12 points (Tennessee 69, Missouri 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Hmm. Kind of even-ish-looking. We’ll see what the rest of the data shows, but it’s looking like Missouri hates three-point shots like the Grinch hates the Whos, no matter who’s taking them.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: A step up from most of the competition so far this season. More like us when shooting the ball than anyone else save Colorado.

Turnover %

Conclusion: The Tigers are protecting possession most like Colorado and St. Joe’s. Not nearly as well as the Vols are, though.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri is the best offensive-rebounding team the Vols have played so far this short season, but Tennessee is still a ways out in front on this, uh, front.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh, look. It’s Yeti. Sasquatch. The Loch Ness Monster. We haven’t yet seen much of any opponent doing anything of any importance better than the Vols so far this season, but here it is: The Tigers are getting to the free throw line much more often than the Vols.

But let’s see what that stifling Tennessee defense might do to those offensive numbers.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

As is customary for a Cuonzo Martin-coached team, the Tigers are going to frustrate a team blindly hoping for shots to go down easily. Tennessee is shooting well enough, but Missouri’s going to make it more difficult than usual.

The difference is more pronounced on the other end, though, where the Vols’ defense figures to frustrate Missouri’s offense even more.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Missouri might hate three-pointers, but they much more like the carve-the-roast-beast version of the Grinch when it comes to stealing stuff. They will not steal the ball, especially from a team who locks it up in a bank vault on a Cayman Island in Switzerland. Yeah, my fingers just did that. Don’t care, because it makes the point. 🙂

On the other side of the court, Tennessee has zero qualms about relieving you of your possessions, although Missouri does seem to be a bit more protective than most teams we’ve played so far this season.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Man, do I love those numbers for the Vols. They’re getting after it on the offensive boards (and Missouri shouldn’t present too much of a hindrance to that this game), and they’re getting after it on the defensive glass just as well. Mo boards, mo possessions, mo points, mo wins.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

And here’s where it appears we have a push, as Tennessee’s not doing especially well at getting to the line, and Missouri’s not likely to help much. On the other side of the court, the Tigers are used to free shots, but they’re not used to playing Tennessee, which plays defense without fouling.

Go Vols.

How rare is what we’ll see at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday night?

In all the excitement of Tennessee’s hot start, we find ourselves asking not only if the Vols can win the SEC outright…but do so by such a margin that the quality of the rest of the league simply won’t matter. But before we get too far into the forest, a moment to appreciation this particular tree.

The Vols are up to #7 in this week’s AP poll, Missouri at #12, making this a Top 15 showdown. Tennessee played in six of these two years ago, including five Top 10 showdowns (all three games against Kentucky, plus Kansas and Gonzaga). So you’re forgiven if it feels a little normal.

But it is most definitely not: via in the media guide, in the last 20 seasons, the Vols have played in only 25 games when Tennessee and their opponent were both ranked in the Top 15:

• Six times in 2019
• A dozen for the Bruce Pearl era (2006-11)
• Seven times in 2000 and 2001

Before those last two Jerry Green seasons, you have to go all the way back to 1983 to find one. So yes, this is rare.

Five of those 25 games have come in the NCAA Tournament. Of the 20 to take place in the regular season, half have come against Kentucky (6) and Florida (4). To find an SEC Top 15 showdown involving Tennessee and someone other than the Cats and Gators, you’ve gotta go back all of those 20 years to the Vols and Auburn in 2000 (a 29-point Tennessee triumph in Knoxville).

So on multiple fronts, Wednesday night is a unique opportunity. The Vols and Tigers will do it again in Knoxville on January 23, one week before the Vols host #3 Kansas. So while there may be additional opportunities this season, there are no guarantees. Enjoy the moment, even if you have to stay up late to do so.

Tennessee’s history in those Top 15 showdowns:

2019

• #2 Kansas 87 #5 Tennessee 81 (OT) (Preseason NIT)
• #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)
• #5 Kentucky 86 #1 Tennessee 69 (Lexington)
• #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 54 (Knoxville)
• #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament)
• #13 Purdue 99 #6 Tennessee 94 (OT) (Sweet Sixteen)

Hoo boy, was this a fun ride. While we obviously won’t be duplicating a triple threat Top 10 with Kentucky this season, in non-pandemic times, we would’ve had another shot at #1 Gonzaga plus #9 Wisconsin in the non-conference this year.

Bruce Pearl Era

• 2006: #10 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 72 (Gainesville)
• 2008: #15 Texas 97 #7 Tennessee 78 (Legends Classic)
• 2008: #2 Tennessee 66 #1 Memphis 62 (Memphis)
• 2008: #5 Tennessee 76 #11 Butler 71 (OT) (Second Round)
• 2008: #13 Louisville 79 #5 Tennessee 60 (Sweet Sixteen)
• 2009: #9 Gonzaga 83 #12 Tennessee 74 (Old Spice Classic)
• 2010: #6 Purdue 73 #9 Tennessee 72 (Paradise Jam)
• 2010: #3 Kentucky 73 #9 Tennessee 62 (Lexington)
• 2010: #2 Kentucky 74 #15 Tennessee 45 (SEC Tournament)
• 2010: #15 Tennessee 76 #5 Ohio State 73 (Sweet Sixteen)
• 2010: #13 Michigan State 70 #15 Tennessee 69 (Elite Eight)
• 2011: #11 Tennessee 83 #3 Pittsburgh 76 (Pittsburgh)

While some of the most memorable Pearl wins involved Tennessee playing outside the Top 15 (with memorable 2010 victories over #1 Kansas and 2 Kentucky just missing the cut in what would’ve made seven such games in that year alone), it’s still an impressive list. Rick Barnes also makes an appearance here, getting the best of the 2008 Vols after coming up short the two previous years. Credit Pearl for getting in one of these games in five of his six seasons in Knoxville.

2000 & 2001

• 2000: #11 Tennessee 105 #7 Auburn 76 (Knoxville)
• 2000: #14 Kentucky 81 #6 Tennessee 68 (Lexington)
• 2000: #8 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 73 (OT) (Knoxville)
• 2001: #14 Virginia 107 #4 Tennessee 89 (Jimmy V Classic)
• 2001: #4 Tennessee 83 #12 Syracuse 70 (Syracuse)
• 2001: #13 Florida 81 #8 Tennessee 67 (Gainesville)
• 2001: #11 Florida 88 #15 Tennessee 82 (Knoxville)

The 1999-00 season was my freshman year at UT, and those two games in Knoxville were incredible, especially for a program that hadn’t played in a Top 15 game in 15 years at that point. Auburn was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as their preseason number one, and the Vols annihilated them. The overtime win against Florida came after the Vols won in Gainesville in double overtime. And you can also see where it started to go wrong for Jerry Green the next year: the Virginia and Syracuse games were back-to-back, a classic, “We’re overrated, nevermind, we’re underrated!” sequence. And the last one was the second of a three-game home losing streak to Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia where the Vols gave up an average of 93 points per loss.

All told in these 25 games: 11-14, but just 4-7 as the higher ranked team. Let’s hope that’s trending in the other direction tomorrow night.

With apologies to Sunday’s clash between Vanderbilt and Alcorn State, we turn our eyes to conference play: four games teams on Tuesday night, then the rest of us jump on board on Wednesday, including the Top 15 showdown between the Vols and Missouri. More on that game to come, but first, a look at the landscape, where the grass is far less blue.

It’s a credit to Kentucky that the SEC basketball conversation defaults to them. But the immediate question becomes, with the Cats now 1-6 and their only win over Morehead State, how will the league be perceived when its golden goose is down?

Everything, of course, is weird this year. Kentucky’s SEC opener is postponed due to covid issues at South Carolina, which I’m sure won’t be the last of that. The league implemented an open date of sorts on what would normally be the final Saturday of the regular season on March 6, which I’m assuming gives room for a single make-up game. We’ll see how they choose to handle that if/when teams face multiple cancellations. But we already know we’re dealing with a smaller sample size: Tennessee lost games with #1 Gonzaga and #9 Wisconsin, and though the Colorado pickup looks good (also receiving votes at 6-1 and 24th in KenPom), the Vols need their game with Kansas to be played free of covid issues. Otherwise, we’d be left with the same question facing most of the SEC: how good are we, really?

The perception problem isn’t just Kentucky at the top, but a significant shift from preseason expectations:

Preseason Media Poll	Current KenPom
1. Tennessee	1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky	2. Florida
3. LSU	3. Ole Miss
4. Florida	4. Arkansas
5. Alabama	5. LSU
6. Arkansas	6. Missouri
7. Auburn	7. Kentucky
8. South Carolina	8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss	9. South Carolina
10. Missouri	10. Auburn
11. Texas A&M	11. Texas A&M
12. Mississippi State	12. Mississippi State
13. Georgia	13. Georgia
14. Vanderbilt	14. Vanderbilt

Not much has changed at the bottom, though keep an eye on 7-0 Georgia, who did beat faltering Cincinnati by more than we did. At the top, Kentucky has been unusually bad, and Florida’s season is now totally unpredictable after Keyontae Johnson’s health scare. Meanwhile, Missouri is undefeated and in the Top 15 of both polls, while Ole Miss has a three-point loss to Dayton and is beating bad teams by 35-40 points.

What happens to the SEC when Kentucky has a down year? Seven years ago the Cats missed the NCAA Tournament, and the league put just two teams in the field at-large – Florida as a three seed despite finishing second in KenPom, Missouri as a nine – plus Marshall Henderson’s Ole Miss team at 12 as SEC Tournament champions. Cuonzo Martin’s Vols were left out at 20-12 (11-7).

This year, the SEC is currently fourth in KenPom’s conference ratings, just behind the ACC and just ahead of the Big East. With the Big Ten and Big 12 battling it out for conference supremacy, the SEC will get its annual chance to improve its perception in a few weeks in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. In the Christmas Eve Bracket Matrix, the league has five teams in the field (starting with the Vols as a three seed), with Ole Miss among the first four out. After putting eight teams in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven in 2019, five would certainly be a disappointment.

Of course, there’s a simple solution for Tennessee: win the league, and leave no doubt along the way.

KenPom projects the Vols as SEC Champions at 13-5. Tennessee is chasing its second league title in four years, but also just its fourth in 39 years. Most recently, the Vols shared the title in 1982, 2000 and 2018, which means they’ve only won it outright one time since 1967, and twice ever. That accomplishment last belonged to the 2008 Vols.

Can they do it? With Kentucky down and Florida uncertain, the opening stretch – at Missouri, vs Alabama, vs Arkansas – feels much more telling. If Tennessee navigates that stretch successfully, they can cement themselves in the Top 10 nationally and in the top seed conversation. In a year when you may want to avoid Gonzaga at all costs, one surefire way to do that is earn a one seed – the program’s first – yourself.

Could this Tennessee team climb that high? The defense checks out, while the offense is in progress. But with smaller sample sizes and an uncertain SEC, it may take an even better record than we’re used to. In the last four NCAA Tournaments, one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday. The Vols will enter league play with a clean slate. The longer they keep it that way, the better their chances to separate themselves from the rest of the league in the overall conversation.

In a year when Kentucky is down and league perception may suffer for it, it would truly be a program accomplishment for Tennessee to win the league outright and earn a one or two seed along the way, commanding their own level of respect regardless of what anyone else in the league does around them. And that’s exactly how they’ll enter league play: good enough to make their own fate.