Tennessee-Arkansas Four Factors Forecast: More clangers

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Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Arkansas Razorbacks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee’s defense has another tough test this evening as the Hogs are one of the best-shooting teams the Vols have played this season. In fact, the whole game figures to be a defensive contest, as both teams know how to keep opposing offenses from posting good shooting percentages. Neither team turns the ball over very much, both get after the offensive boards, and the difference in getting to the foul line is marginal.

Here’s our humble suggestion on what to watch for:

  1. Learn to love defense, as both the Vols and the Hogs look like they’re built to make opposing offenses look ugly.
  2. With most everything else being something close to equal, the winner is likely going to have to play a clean game and make the most of any advantage. Fortunately for the Vols, their numbers suggest that a slightly better defense should be the difference in the game.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Arkansas 67, which translates into a 73% chance of winning. Vegas likes the Vols by 8.5 and puts the over/under at 141.5, so projects the score to be around 76-67, Vols.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by only six points (Tennessee 70, Arkansas 64).

Details below.


Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That’s making things look pretty darn even. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Arkansas is receiving votes. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 8, and the Hogs are No. 40.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Arkansas is the best-shooting team the Vols have played so far this season, with the exception of Colorado.

Turnover %

Conclusion: And they are the best at protecting their possession of the ball.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: And also the best at offensive rebounding, although the Vols are even better on the o-boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Hogs don’t get to the free throw line nearly as often as do the Missouri Tigers, but they’re head-of-the-pack at this among teams the Vols have played this season.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so if you were frustrated by the way the Vols shot against Missouri, get ready for a possible repeat of that, as the Hogs are good at keeping opponents from sinking shots.

The Vols will return the favor on the other end of the floor. If you’re watching with someone who thinks both teams are just bad, rev up the whole “it probably has something to do with the defense, don’tcha think” conversation.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Neither team is giving up many turnovers, although Tennessee’s defense is more likely to stress Arkansas in this regard than vice versa.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Again, both teams are pulling down offensive boards at a good clip. Both respective defenses are going to make that more difficult this game, with Tennessee appearing to have a slight edge.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Vols aren’t terrible at getting to the foul line, but they are better at it than the Hogs. And one more time — both defenses are going to have a not insignificant impact on that. Tennessee’s defense is better at defending without fouling, though.

Go Vols.

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