Tennessee-Texas A&M Four Factors Forecast: We heart extra possessions

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Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Aggies give the ball away like they’re downsizing and moving to another country for the rest of their lives. Also, they’re advertising an all-you-can-eat buffet on the offensive boards on their dime, so expect Tennessee to benefit from a ton of extra opportunities through turnovers and second-chance possessions.

The bad news: Texas A&M draws fouls like roadkill draws flies. The Vols’ ability to defend without fouling has recently fallen from the lofty perch of the elite, and although they’re still very good in this regard, they’ll be challenged today. Expect more trips to the foul line than normal for the villains and hope it doesn’t matter.

Vegas has the Vols as 10.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 129.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 70, Texas A&M 59.

KenPom likes the Vols by 9 and puts the score at Tennessee 67, Texas A&M 58, which translates into a 78% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine also likes the Vols by 9 points (Tennessee 66, Texas A&M 57).

Details below.


Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Decided advantage for the Vols here. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the Aggies are No. 97.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Ags are about like the Vols here, good, but not as good as Colorado or Arkansas at hitting from the field.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ooh. Smells bad, and that’s good. Actually, now that I’m looking at it again, that’s a disparity that involuntarily triggers a chuckle.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols are slightly better on the o-boards, but TAMU isn’t bad there, either.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Goodness. These guys get to the free-throw line better than all but five teams in the country.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols have a chance to shoot a better percentage from the field today than they usually do, but their shooting defense has slipped quite a bit the last couple of games. They could ratchet that back up again today against the Aggies.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Both teams are extremely good at forcing turnovers. Fortunately, Tennessee is also good at not turning the ball over, while A&M seems to have reverse magnetism in this regard.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The Vols should be able to rack up offensive rebounds at will today. Things should be about normal on the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee sending opponents to the foul line has also taken a bit of a dive lately, but they’re still good at defending without fouling. They will, however, be going up against a team that absolutely excels at drawing fouls. That’s something to watch today and could well be a key to the game.

Go Vols.

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Jayyyy
Jayyyy
11 days ago

Hoops SPM pretty close on this one