Category Archives: Basketball

When the Vols put it on Kansas Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was, “Man, when’s the last time we blew out a good team like this?” When the name of the front of the jersey says KANSAS, it feels like it’s worth a little more. But the answer to that question is probably, “A month ago.”

Tennessee now has a pair of Top 15 wins and a pair of Top 15 blowouts: 73-53 over #12 Missouri on December 30, 80-61 over #15 Kansas on January 30. So if it’s happened twice in 30 days, it must happen all the time right?

Nope.

The 2019 Vols did put it on #4 Kentucky in Knoxville by 19 after they had it done to them in Lexington by 17. Going back to what we think of as Tennessee’s current run of basketball success (Pearl-Barnes), how many times have the Vols beaten a Top 15 opponent by 15+ points in those last 15 years?

In flipping through the media guide, it’s those three games in the last three years, and only once more…which also involved Rick Barnes! In Bruce Pearl’s first season, the Vols went to #6 Texas and shockingly won by 17.

And that’s it. That’s the list.

15+ point wins over Top 15 teams in the last 15 years

• 2006: Tennessee 95 #6 Texas 78
• 2019: #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 52
• 2021: #7 Tennessee 73 #12 Missouri 53
• 2021: #18 Tennessee 80 #15 Kansas 61

Before Pearl’s stunning victory in Austin, you have to go back to Jerry Green’s 2000 SEC Championship team blowing out #7 Auburn by 29. Before then, the next one I can find is from 1982.

The performance in Gainesville made us feel the floor a little bit, for sure. But those two wins over Kansas and Missouri are fairly high ceilings. I still think Kansas was a bit underrated coming in, victimized by a Big 12 schedule we’re used to them dominating. And while some may have written off Missouri after the game in Columbia, their performance in Knoxville (and otherwise) since then has kept them in the national conversation. There are, in fact, a quartet of SEC teams in today’s AP poll: #10 Alabama, #11 Tennessee, #18 Missouri, and #22 Florida. That means more opportunities to figure out what the Vols are made of in a conference that’s solidifying itself in the bracket.

Long way to go this year, and maybe another pendulum swing or two. But Tennessee’s best this year has been up there with just about anything we’ve seen before, and credit Rick Barnes for getting the best out of his teams against the best competition.

Well, that was satisfying.

Whatever your experience of the last week or six weeks of uncertainty with Tennessee football, and the smidge of uncertainty that crept into this basketball team in losses to Florida and Missouri…this, tonight, was (Fulmerized) certain.

Josiah-Jordan James hit a three at the 12:53 mark of the first half to give the Vols a 17-8 lead, a shot in the arm for Tennessee’s offense and its confidence. Kansas got it back to six with six minutes to play in the first half, then didn’t make another shot until the Vols turned it over in the final seconds before the break.

The defense is what we expect when Yves Pons is on the floor. Baylor played Bruce Pearl earlier today, which meant they lost their status as KenPom’s best defense even before the Vols tipped off tonight. Kansas was cold from three early, and that helped. But they also seemed extraordinarily aware of Pons, even though he didn’t block a single shot. There were no good looks available, and they didn’t force any bad ones at the rim.

The defense is what we expect. The offense is what we wanted. And oh baby, it delivered.

In those last six minutes of the first half, Tennessee went to the well:

• Fulkerson two
• Pons two
• Springer and-one
• Pons three
• Keon two
• Josiah three
• This right here:

sheesh https://t.co/kgog9mPHa4

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 31, 2021

In those six minutes, Tennessee shot 7-of-10 against Kansas – 10th in KenPom defense coming in – and turned a six point game into 16.

To start the second half, Kansas went right in to David McCormack, who cut it to 12. Right back to the well:

• Pons and-one
• Pons two
• Keon two
• Springer two free throws
• Fulkerson two
• Fulkerson, feeling it, two more

Then Victor Bailey, who came into the game taking more shots than anyone in orange, took his first. A three. He splashed it, and suddenly the Vols were up 21. Then he made five straight free throws for good measure.

A Kansas run never came. The Vols led by as many as 26 and won by 19. Yep.

Defensively, the thing Tennessee is best at is forcing turnovers and blocking shots. Tonight: one block (a spectacular one from Josiah), and only seven Kansas turnovers. Yet the Jayhawks shot just 37.7% from the floor, 6-of-24 from the arc, and only grabbed five offensive rebounds on all those misses. A sterling performance from an already-elite defense, now the best in the land in KenPom.

Offensively, mercy.

The hope that Tennessee’s good shots from good ball movement would just start falling came partially true tonight: 52.8% from the floor, a disciplined 8-of-13 from the arc, helped along by a tidy 16-of-17 from the line.

But it was who took those shots that stood out most:

• Pons 7-of-9, 17 points in 23 minutes
• Fulkerson 5-of-8, 11 points
• Keon 3-of-8, 8 points
• Springer 3-of-7, 13 points (7-of-7 at the line)

And the Vols made a shift in their rotation, going solely with Olivier Nkamhoua as the backup post option/eighth man, and giving him a green light. He only went 2-of-7 and had four fouls in 15 minutes, but it felt like there was affirmation in it from the coaching staff: if you’re going to play Nkamhoua, let him play.

We wondered what would happen if the Vols started and played the freshmen more. Small sample size, but good opponent, and the returns were excellent.

The hill remains steep: at Ole Miss Tuesday, at Rupp, a Florida team we already knew was dangerous that looked even more so today, then at LSU. The resume will be written over these next two weeks.

But the Vols made a statement tonight, and did so in such a way that makes you believe this offense has plenty left to give.

We’ll get to that. For now, at the end of this crazy set of weeks in the athletic department…I believe we’ll take every bit of this W tonight.

Excellent work.

Go Vols.

The Cuonzo Maritn school of, “We didn’t make shots,” is still in session in Knoxville. The Vols continue to have the second-best defense in the nation via KenPom, but the offense has plummeted in the last three games, two of them losses, one of them to Cuonzo’s current employer. In that span the Vols dropped to the three line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and are a four in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. It’s been true all year that Gonzaga and Baylor are clearly the best two teams in the land. That means there’s great value in getting a three seed or higher, because you guarantee you’re not running into one of those teams in the Sweet 16. The goal remains to get your best basketball by March, and give yourself the easiest possible path through the bracket along the way. So what does Tennessee’s best basketball look like right now?

We’ll get back to Jaden Springer in a moment, but in general, what’s gone most wrong for the Vols in conference play is, of course, that they’re not making shots – 11th in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, just 29.9% from the arc – and they get no second chances, ranking dead last in offensive rebounding. Tennessee still leads the league in assist rate, getting the most made baskets off of assists. But with lineups still in flux and trending toward more minutes for the five star freshmen, it’ll be interesting to see if that number rises as the Vols make more of those good looks, or falls because the freshmen utilize their skills to get more on their own.

Per minute, Jaden Springer has been Tennessee’s best offensive player all season, now at 19.4 points per game per 40 minutes. Victor Bailey’s volume shooting is second in points per minute, with Keon Johnson third (16.4). And right behind those three guards is John Fulkerson, who still possesses good numbers offensively and is excellent at drawing fouls…but against Mississippi State, he took three shots and three free throws in 29 minutes. The Vols still used their defense to get exactly the kind of win they’ll still need some nights in this league. But the Vols still believe there’s more out there from Fulkerson.

That brings us to Kansas, who got off to an 8-1 start with their only loss to Gonzaga, no shame there. Then they were blown out 84-59 by Texas on their home floor, took two games from TCU, and otherwise went into the Big 12 meat grinder: beat Oklahoma by four, went 0-3 on a road trip at Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma.

The Big 12 has lost some of its shine, with the Big Ten, at least in KenPom, now laying claim to best conference in the land status. Alabama and Tennessee are the only two SEC teams in the KenPom Top 20. The Big 12 has six. As such, there are significant opportunities for the league tomorrow:

• #9 Alabama at #24 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Florida at #11 West Virginia – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• #10 Texas Tech at LSU – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• Auburn at #2 Baylor – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• Arkansas at Oklahoma State – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• #15 Kansas at #18 Tennessee – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• #5 Texas at Kentucky – 8:00 PM – ESPN

That’s a great slate of basketball, one with meaningful opportunities not just for the Tide and Vols at the top, but the handful of SEC teams trying to play their way up the seed line, plus relative season-making opportunities for Auburn and Kentucky squads that won’t make the tournament.

Monday is February. This season will get short in a hurry, and this upcoming stretch for Tennessee – Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU – will speak loudest on our resume. I do believe there’s a game out there where Tennessee knocks down a bunch of these open looks and we win by more than we were anticipating. I’m not sure if Kansas will be that game, but in a Top 20 showdown with a national power, you take any victory any how. If it’s the defensive slugfest from earlier this week, great.

But if the Vols are trending more toward the freshmen into the teeth of this schedule, this will absolutely be an interesting three weeks. Johnson and Springer haven’t played a bunch on the floor at the same time, in part due to Springer’s ankle. Will the Vols lean on Vescovi, Johnson, Springer, Fulkerson, and Pons? Will they throw Josiah-Jordan James into that mix instead of Vescovi and play a super-talented and athletic perimeter game? What’s happening with Fulkerson in these lineup shifts, especially when dealing with 6’10” David McCormack?

The big picture questions with lineups, freshmen, and offensive identity are still unfolding, and now the toughest part of Tennessee’s schedule will demand answers. This is a big game at the outset of a big three weeks for this team. I’m excited to see what comes next.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Jayhawks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: The Vols appear to have an advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. It also looks like they have a distinct advantage in shooting defense, which is good because . . .

Challenges: . . . Tennessee’s shooting has run away from home. Or it’s on Rumpsringa or something. It’s gone, is what I’m saying. Like Al Pacino’s cash. Fortunately, it looks like it might have eloped with Kansas’ shooting defense. Maybe they’re seeing a fertility specialist together? Have I over-milked this metaphor? Yes? Okay!

Although the two teams are clones on the offensive glass, Kansas appears to have an advantage in defensive rebounding.

Predictions: The line is not yet out, but KenPom projects a 2-point win for the Vols with a score of 66-64 and a 57% chance of winning. Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, using 10 comps, likes the Vols by 6 (Tennessee 67, Kansas 61). Using all comps, it’s Tennessee 73, Kansas 68.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and both Tennessee and Kansas have been in a bit of a slump.

So, without accounting for opponent impact (see below for that), Kansas shoots better from three (no surprise there, right?), and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better. Vols have a slight edge at getting to the free throw line, but rebounding looks even.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Kansas looks most like Missouri, Vanderbilt, and App State.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Alabama, App State, and Missouri in turning the ball over. Not bad, but not especially good, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Twinsies! Most like Florida and Texas A&M among prior Vols’ opponents.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh. They’re really not good at getting to the line. Most like Colorado and Vanderbilt here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Goodness, fellas. Time to put a poster on a pole because we’ve gone and lost our stroke. Fortunately, Kansas’ defense appears to be missing as well. And Kansas isn’t much better at shooting, but they’ll be going up against Tennessee’s defense, which remains safely at home on the sofa.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Vols are still doing pretty well at protecting the ball and exceptionally well at relieving their opponents of their most prized possessions. Kansas is not particularly good at either of those things, so chalk this up as a distinct advantage for the good guys.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As I noted earlier, Tennessee and Kansas are identical twins on the offensive glass. However, the Jayhawks’ defensive rebounding appears to be better than Tennessee’s, so give this one to the Clown Birds. I don’t know how they jump with those puffy shoes, but hey.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee gets to the foul line on a pretty regular basis, but Kansas is good at defending without fouling, so we’ll just have to see how that shakes out. On the other end, the Jayhawks don’t get nearly as many trips to Freeland, but the Vols have been fouling more often lately. So let’s consider this category a double shrug, meaning it could well be the deciding factor.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: In most categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like several teams that Tennessee has already beaten. Plus, the Vols appear to have a distinct advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. Keep reading.

Challenges: In many categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like the teams to which Tennessee just lost. In the midst of an uncharacteristic two-game skid, what should have been an advantage for Tennessee in turnovers has suddenly sprung a giant, gushing leak. Patching that thing pronto will be especially important this evening because the Bulldogs are exceptional on the offensive glass.

This game may simply come down to which team can earn the most extra opportunities — the Vols through turnovers or the Bulldogs through offensive rebounds.

The line is Tennessee -9.5, and with an over/under of 129.5, Vegas projects a score of something like Tennessee 69, Mississippi State 60. KenPom’s projection is also 69-60, Vols, which translates into an 81% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by one additional point (Tennessee 70, Mississippi State 60). Using only the two closest comps, it’s Tennessee 72, Mississippi State 64.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and Tennessee is currently on a skid in many categories.

Hmm. More even than I was hoping. The Bulldogs shoot better from three, but they also allow opponents to hit more of them, so that could even out.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: From the standpoint of effective field goal percentage, the Vols have played a lot of teams that look nearly identical to Mississippi State. They beat all of them, with the exception of the rematch against Missouri during the aforementioned skid.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Uh-oh. I see a theme developing here. Among prior Vols opponents, the Bulldogs are most like Saint Joseph’s, Florida, and . . . Missouri. That would be just fine, thank you very much, except for the car fishtailing at the moment.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. This is not the best time to have to deal with the best offensive rebounding team we’ve played so far this season.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Florida at getting to the free throw line. Also not the best news at this time.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really struggling to hit their shots, but fortunately, Mississippi State doesn’t appear to present too much of an obstacle to getting back in the groove. On the other end, it may be approaching time to drop the “elite” from the description of Tennessee’s defense, but they’re still plenty good. But see The Skid.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Just a few games ago, the Vols were exceptional at not turning the ball over. Now, their numbers are still decent but far from exceptional, thanks to an all-you-can-eat turnover binge during The Skid. They are still exceptional at forcing opponents into turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

When the Vols have the ball, things look pretty even on the boards. On the other end, though, the Bulldogs appear to have a decided advantage. They’re going to earn extra shots for themselves with offensive rebounds. The Vols can’t also give them extra opportunities via turnovers.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Mississippi State defends well without fouling, so trips to the free throw line for the Vols could be few and far between. On the other end, it looks like business as usual.

Go Vols.

If you were looking for a pick-me-up this week with all the football drama, the basketball trip to Gainesville was not it. Maybe fewer of us were looking with all the football stuff going on. Either way, the Vols get another shot against a good team tomorrow night, as Missouri comes to Knoxville for the return match.

I wouldn’t expect another 20-point blowout; both Missouri and Tennessee were woeful at the free throw line the first time, so the game could go lots of different ways. And we’re unsure about the status of Jaden Springer, who continues to be Tennessee’s most productive option offensively on a per-minute basis.

What went wrong in Gainesville was similar to what went wrong against Alabama from a lineup perspective: Springer was hurt and Pons got two fouls early. In terms of efficiency, those are Tennessee’s best players on offense and defense. Unlike the battle with the Tide, the Vols never got back within striking distance in the second half against the Gators.

Tennessee’s defense is still second in the nation. When Pons is on the floor, it’s elite. I’m not worried about that part.

But Tennessee’s offense plummeted to 54th nationally in KenPom. It’s not a death sentence – the 2010 Elite Eight Vols finished 75th, though they played much of the SEC calendar at less than full strength – but it needs to improve if the Vols are going to get back into the conversation for the bracket’s top line. In that regard, the Vols were passed by Alabama in the span of about four hours Tuesday night: a 26-point loss in Gainesville followed by a 30-point win for Bama in Baton Rouge, and now the Tide are the SEC’s best team by any metric you’d like. And because of some scheduling advantages the rest of the way home, KenPom projects the Tide to finish a blistering 16-2 in league play, with the Vols at 13-5. We’ll see about all of that, but if you want to have that conversation, Tennessee needs to figure out its offense.

The four factor numbers aren’t bad: 21st in turnovers, 50th in offensive rebounding percentage, 52nd in free throw rate. Much of Tennessee’s struggle has been the old Cuonzo Martin frustration: “We didn’t make shots.”

Optimism alert!

https://twitter.com/Shot_Quality/status/1351917220704759810

Tennessee’s offense is still based in getting good shots through good ball movement. It’s not as white-hot in this department as it’s been the last three years; the Vols were fourth nationally in assist rate last season, it’s not purely a product of having Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield on your team. Tennessee is currently 47th nationally in that stat, but just 156th in effective field goal percentage. Hard to get assists when the shots won’t fall.

So if we like most of the looks, but want to do more than just hope for the law of averages, how can Tennessee get their most productive scorers more opportunities?

Among the top seven players, who takes the most shots for Tennessee?

Player	Pct. of Shots
Bailey	16.2%
Fulkerson	13.8%
Vescovi	12.9%
Pons	12.6%
Johnson	12.0%
James	11.2%
Springer	10.7%

Victor Bailey had something straight out of his nightmares against Florida: 1-of-10 in the first half, 1-of-12 overall, 0-of-6 from three, 2-of-6 at the line, and five turnovers. Gross.

Bailey’s turnovers and missed free throws were unusual, he’s been good in both departments this season. Do the Vols want him taking more shots than anyone else?

This happens in part because he’ll score from inside and outside the arc, and can be used in different ways more than John Fulkerson. And it may be happening because some of the perimeter alternatives are freshmen who may not have or feel the greenest of lights; Keon Johnson tried to assert himself early in the second half and it worked well in that initial spurt.

But in particular from three, Bailey’s volume shooting hasn’t helped the Vols: he’s currently the fourth-best three-point shooter on the team (behind Springer’s small sample size, Vescovi, and James), but he takes the second-most threes, trailing only Vescovi. Vescovi is 26-of-66 (39.4%) on the year. Bailey is 17-of-55 (30.4%).

Tennessee needs Springer to play, obviously. And so far, they really only want Vescovi to shoot threes and distribute, even off penetration: he’s 10-of-24 inside the arc. If you’re looking for better scoring inside the arc, that’s the same old answer: John Fulkerson.

Fulkerson is the team’s best scorer from two at 54.7%. He doesn’t turn it over very often when he gets it. And he gets to the free throw line (84th nationally) and knocks them down once there (77.8%). As Rick Barnes loves to point out, the Vols need more from Fulkerson. He steadied their ship when the waters got bumpy last year, and turned in an elite performance at Rupp Arena. It’s a different kind of bumpy early this season, with so many parts producing an offense that needs to get better. But a huge piece of that puzzle on this team will always be John Fulkerson from two.

Get Springer healthy. Have a more even distribution of who’s taking your threes. Get Fulkerson going from two. And maybe those averages will start feeling a little more friendly.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Missouri Tigers tomorrow night.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: When these two teams last met, Tennessee dominated. They won primarily on the strength of turnovers, excellent shooting, and terrific defense. While the shooting tends to ebb and flow, turnovers and defense appear to be pretty consistent and reliable characteristics of this team, the last game against the Gators notwithstanding.

The bad news: On paper, Tennessee and Missouri are almost strikingly similar, and they are exceptional at getting to the free throw line and on defense, the last game against the Vols notwithstanding. And Tennessee went Jekyll and Hyde earlier this week and somehow turned all of their pretties into big, fat uglies against the Gators. The last time out, Tennessee played well and Missouri played poorly. If both teams are on, this contest should be much, much closer. And the Vols are plenty capable of turning in a clunker.

The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 6 and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Missouri 62, which translates into a 71% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 7 (Tennessee 67, Missouri 60).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That looks remarkably even. Tennessee does appear to protect the ball better than Missouri, although that certainly wasn’t the case against Florida earlier this week.

Here’s how things played out the last time these two teams met:

The Vols dominated that game. Rebounding and getting to the free throw line were even, but Tennessee won on turnovers and shooting percentages on both ends of the floor.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Tennessee opponents, Missouri’s effective shooting percentage is most like that of Colorado and Arkansas.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Saint Joseph’s, Cincinnati, and USC Upstate. But Florida is the next-best.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Cincinnati on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: These guys know how to get to the line. Only Texas A&M (among prior Vols’ opponents) is better.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Yikes. A little defense for you, and a little defense for me. Both teams really make it difficult on opposing offenses. Looking at those numbers, it should be the case that Tennessee’s offense struggles more than Missouri’s, but that’s not how it turned out the last time they played.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Turnovers were a big factor in the last matchup, and they could be again, as the Vols both protect the ball well and force opponents into a lot of turnovers, while Missouri appears to be generally bad at doing anything about it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

On the boards, Tennessee should be able to create an advantage for itself by eating up more offensive rebounds than usual. Under the other basket, things look pretty even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee is getting to the free throw line surprisingly (to me, anyway) well, and Missouri does like to foul. And although the Tigers generally make a ton of trips to the stripe, they’re going up against a Tennessee team that does a pretty good job not fouling. Missouri did get six more trips than Tennessee the last time out.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Florida Gators tomorrow night.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Gators are somewhat turnover-prone, and the Vols’ defense is likely to inflame that a bit. Tennessee also appears to have a distinct advantage on the boards at both ends of the floor, and Florida’s propensity to foul will likely put Tennessee at the free throw line more often than usual. Plus, any advantage the Gators may have should be mitigated by the Vols’ terrific defense.

The bad news: The Gators shoot well, and if they are hot, they can make it a game.

The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 3 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Florida 67, which translates into a 61% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 13 (Tennessee 75, Florida 62). For the last game against Vanderbilt, the Machine predicted a 21-point Vols win and a score of 78-57. Tennessee won by 20, 81-61.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Knee-jerk analysis: Pretty even on offense, but, as you’d expect, the Vols’ defense is much better. The Gators are also more likely to turn the ball over. Rebounding and free throws look basically even if you look at the teams in a vacuum. But see below for the opponent impact.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Florida shoots about like Tennessee, and about like Colorado among prior Vols’ opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and App State in the turnovers department.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Missouri on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Hmm. Between Missouri and Alabama in getting to the free throw line, but not especially like either one of them.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The usual story here. Tennessee needs to improve its shooting, and Florida will present some resistance in that regard, but on the other end, the Vols are going to really make it difficult for the Gators to do as well as they usually do. Bottom line, Tennessee better than usual, but Florida worse.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee is still really excelling at turnovers, both in protecting its own and stealing its opponents’. The Gators aren’t bad at creating turnovers, but they’re teetering on bad at giving them up.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

That looks like a major advantage on the o-boards for the Vols and a less-pronounced advantage at the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Another huge advantage here for the good guys, as the Gators are likely to usher the Vols to the free throw line quite a bit. On the other end, Florida doesn’t get there especially often, and Tennessee isn’t likely to help.

Go Vols.

The Vols, we think, are back in action tomorrow against Vanderbilt. Tennessee lost a date with South Carolina on Tuesday, then lost the reshuffled trip to Nashville, but we’re hopeful we’ll see the Vols and ‘Dores in Knoxville tomorrow (6:00 PM, SEC Network). The SEC left the final Saturday of the regular season open on March 6, so there’s a chance to make up one game. We’ll see what happens.

In Tennessee’s first ten games, the Vols have faced three Tier A opponents (via KenPom) and two Tier B opponents. On the other side of the Vanderbilt game comes the season’s most important stretch: five straight weeks, ten straight games against Tier A or B competition. Tennessee’s final three games, as it stands today, are against lesser competition: the original date for the trip to Vanderbilt, a trip to Auburn, and Georgia in Knoxville. Throw in a potential make-up with South Carolina, and the Vols would finish with four straight games against teams outside the NCAA Tournament conversation (…we think. South Carolina has only played five games total, so they’ll have a ton of questions to answer upon their return to action).

But the stretch from January 19 through February 20 is where Tennessee’s fate will be decided: at Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky.

There are two goals coming into that stretch, and the one should have a good chance to lead to the other: win the SEC outright, and earn the program’s first number one seed.

The SEC

Three years ago, when the Vols last won the league, Tennessee opened SEC play in a big game at Arkansas. The Vols lost in overtime in a contest that featured heavy referee influence, shall we say. Emotions were high, etc. Then Tennessee returned home and gave up 341234 offensive rebounds in a loss to Auburn.

The Vols, of course, figured it out: they beat Kentucky in Knoxville four days later, went 13-5, and shared the league title with…Auburn. As it turned out, Tennessee played the second-best team in the league in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time.

I point that out to say this year, the Vols opened SEC play on the road against Top 15 Missouri, and delivered an emotional result of a different kind: the 20-point win that made those two goals up there the right ones for this team. Then they returned home and lost a weird lineup game to Alabama, who hit 10-of-20 from the arc and 8-of-11 in the second half.

Turns out, Bama’s good.

The Tide followed up with a 15-point win over Florida in Tuscaloosa, and just beat Kentucky in Rupp – still worth something – by 20, which is plenty of something. Alabama is 5-0 in the SEC and now 21st nationally in KenPom. I think Tennessee played the second best team in the SEC in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time…and like 2018, we won’t get another shot at them.

KenPom projects the Vols and Tide to “split” the SEC title: Alabama at 14-4, Tennessee at 13-4, and maybe they’ll get the South Carolina game rescheduled. LSU is one game back in those projections; the Tigers and Tide do play each other twice, so some of that may sort itself out. But Alabama has the pieces and the 5-0 head start to make a serious run at the league title. And they too will make a lot of their living right now: Arkansas, at LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, at Oklahoma, LSU, at Missouri in their next seven games. The logic here suggests you want to be ahead of Alabama in the standings when they finish that stretch on February 6, as a trip to Fayetteville on February 24 is Alabama’s only game against a Top 60 KenPom foe in their final seven contests.

KenPom projects the Vols to go 7-3 in that ten game stretch after Vanderbilt, which would put them in range for a 13/14-and-4 finish. They’ll all count, and that goes for the chase for a one seed too.

The #1 Seed

Let’s write GONZAGA at the top of your bracket.

Baylor goes next, but the Bears are getting ready to run their own little gauntlet: at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Oklahoma State in their next three. If they run that table, put them in all caps next.

From there, the chase for the two remaining one seeds gets murkier. As was the case two years ago, a lot will depend on how the selection committee views the power of each conference: in 2019, three ACC teams were placed on the top line, while Tennessee – fresh off a huge win over Kentucky and a huge loss to Auburn in the previous 48 hours – fell to the two line. Unlike previous years where regional sites mattered, this year we should get something that far more resembles a true s-curve (with a few exceptions to keep top teams from the same conference in separate regions). So, for instance, if the goal is to avoid Gonzaga for as long as possible, you don’t want to be the last two seed or the first three seed, because that should be Gonzaga’s region.

But the surest way to stay away from the Zags until the Final Four – a place Tennessee has never been – is to earn one of the other one seeds.

In non-pandemic times, number one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday over the last four tournaments. That, of course, includes conference tournament play; Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979. So all of these projections from KenPom would be pre-conference tournament.

KenPom Projected Records

• Gonzaga 23-1
• Baylor 21-3
• Michigan 20-4
• Villanova 18-4
• Tennessee 19-5
• Iowa 20-6
• Texas 19-6
• Creighton 19-6

I’d also throw in Houston, projected to finish 20-3 in the American, as an option for a top two seed. From here, it depends on who else can separate in the two best conferences (Big 10/12), and how the committee views leagues like the SEC and Big East by comparison. Illinois is just .05 points behind Tennessee in KenPom overall, but projected to finish 16-9. Similar stories with Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Kansas, and West Virginia.

If Alabama keeps winning, more power to them: that helps the league’s image in a year when Kentucky isn’t a factor. But no matter what Alabama does, the Vols have to keep holding up their end of the bargain.

For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols grabbing the final number one seed (with Texas the two in that region, spicy). It puts LSU on the four line, Alabama at five, Missouri at six, Arkansas at eight, and Florida at ten. In the January 11 Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the third two seed, which would put them in Baylor’s region if the curve held. There Missouri is a four, Alabama at seven, with Florida, LSU, and Arkansas all at nine.

The Vols technically won’t control their own destiny for the SEC title until Alabama loses a game, but if the Tide run the table, uh, they’ll deserve it. But Tennessee still feels very much in control of its own destiny to capture a one seed, especially as Big 10/12 teams begin to pick each other off. It’s still the right goal for this team, and one that would give them the best chance to check some other program firsts off the list.

UPDATE: Game postponed due to COVID-19 concerns within the Vanderbilt program. We’ll keep this up for Saturday’s game between the same teams, as that one is still on for now.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Vanderbilt Commodores tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Vols should have decided advantages in almost every facet of the game this evening, especially on defense, in turnovers, and at the free throw line.

The bad news: Tennessee and Vandy are about equally as good at rebounding the ball.

Vegas has the Vols as 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 137.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63.

KenPom likes the Vols by 12 and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 61, which translates into an 87% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols to cover easily, by 21 (Tennessee 78, Vanderbilt 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Knee-jerk analysis: This looks even on the boards, but the Vols appear to have a decided advantage everywhere else. Tennessee is currently No. 10 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the ‘Dores are No. 137.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Vanderbilt shoots about like the Vols. Colorado is the most similar prior opponent in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Alabama and Missouri when it comes to turnovers.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Basically like Colorado on the offensive boards. Also similar to Texas A&M.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Who doesn’t like free stuff? Vanderbilt.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols shouldn’t have much trouble hitting their shots tonight. Vanderbilt? Well, they’re probably going to have some trouble.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ooh, look! Free turnovers! And they’re mine, all mine! I love turnovers!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Yes, even with the defensive interference, we’re looking at an even game on the boards on both sides of the floor tonight.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee’s still not really getting to the free throw line all that often, but Vandy may make it a bit easier this evening. And on the other side of the floor, the Commodores are too proud to accept your stinking charity anyway.

Go Vols.