Author Archives: Will Shelton

“Worst” is subjective, of course. When we did this eight years ago at Rocky Top Talk, “most heartbreaking” was the language we chose. As I wrote Wednesday, turns out heartbreak is also subjective. It doesn’t feel right to tag the toughest losses of the last decade with heartbreak, because that’s typically reserved for stakes bigger than the Vols have played for since 2007. We’ll just go with worst; I’m taking into consideration both how it felt at the time and how it feels today. Here are my picks for the ten worst losses during Tennessee’s decade-long struggle:

10. 2017 Florida

When Tyrie Cleveland caught that pass, I laughed. I don’t think I’ve ever had that reaction to a Tennessee loss before, especially not one on the final play of the game. But this game felt like the summation of everything the Vols had struggled with under Butch Jones: overly infatuated with a close game, an inability to create a successful offensive snap in a crucial situation despite multiple chances, Florida snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. There are more colorful examples of all three further up the list. The ending here felt both unexpected and appropriate. And ultimately, as the 2017 season faded into 4-8 infamy, this loss didn’t matter as much. It wasn’t the difference between success and failure, or Jones keeping his job. It hurt plenty in the moment, but was simply the first chapter of a story we were already dreading.

9. 2008 UCLA

When you wait all summer for college football and your team is coming off an SEC East title, it hurts real bad to lose on opening night. Especially when the other team throws four interceptions in the first half. No one needs to hear me talk about the Clawfense any more; the numbers from this box score (Crompton 19-of-41, Foster & Hardesty 162 yards on only 25 carries) are burned in my brain. The beginning of the end.

8. 2014 Florida

Josh Dobbs is the reason this game doesn’t rank higher for me. He changed the narrative of the 2014 season and the trajectory of the program against South Carolina later that year, one of the most endearing and enduring victories of these last ten seasons. But on this day, Tennessee had seven snaps inside the Florida 20 in the third quarter, and none of them gained a single yard. Two field goals and an interception later, a 3-0 lead was only 9-0, and as we all remember, that wasn’t enough.

7. 2016 South Carolina

This season is still exhausting to think about. The range of emotions from the end of the Georgia game, through the end of the Texas A&M game (the kind of game that definitely makes the list when the Vols are consistently good around it), through getting decimated by Alabama…to this loss. From “team of destiny!” to a defeat that was actually encouraging against A&M, to chalking it up to injuries and Alabama while still having tangible success in front of you…and then it was simply all gone at South Carolina. A steep fall indeed, one Jones wouldn’t recover from.

6. 2015 Oklahoma

Despite the frustrating loss to Florida in 2014, the program was trending in the right direction and Oklahoma was the golden opportunity for Tennessee to announce its return to the national landscape. And man, it felt like that was happening at halftime. But in the third quarter, Tennessee had four drives featuring a 1st-and-10 at their own 44 or better. And those four sequences featured no gains greater than one yard. One missed field goal, three punts, and some heroics from Baker Mayfield later, and the Sooners stole the victory as the Vols blew a three-possession lead for the first time in almost 30 years.

5. 2010 LSU

4. 2010 North Carolina

Remember when these two happened and we thought they would represent the worst things would get for a long time? Eight years later, I think the North Carolina one is worse. Not only did we think we had won for a longer period of time, the LSU screw-up was our fault for having a billion men on the field. The UNC loss can still be blamed in part on the referee not standing over the ball while the Tar Heels substituted, and now college football has the Derek Dooley rule to prevent such a thing from happening again. The unique experience of celebrating a victory before ultimately losing twice in one season is enough to keep these two in the top five.

3. 2011 Kentucky

I can excuse 2008 Wyoming for a number of reasons, and losses like 2017 Georgia or plenty to Alabama can be chalked up to, “They were a lot better than us.” But this one, to me, still stands out. 4-7 Kentucky with a wide receiver playing quarterback and 217 yards of offense broke a 26-year winning streak for Tennessee in this series, costing the Vols bowl eligibility and Derek Dooley almost all the goodwill he had left.

2. 2012 Florida

Perhaps not one you think of right away when going back through the last ten years. But if I’m thinking back to the way I felt at the end of the game? There’s been little worse than this: all the Fulmer-Kiffin-Dooley stuff, back in the Top 25 for the first time since the slide began, and more than anything, the fragile hope that the 2012 team could actually get us back. Midway through the third quarter, it felt like it was going to happen. And then: 80-yard touchdown, interception, 45-yard gain, 23-yard touchdown, Florida up 27-20, and a few drives later a 75-yard touchdown was added on for good measure. Walking out of that stadium I remember very clearly thinking two things: this team won’t be the one to get us back, and now we’re going to have to wait at least three more years to try. I haven’t written after terrible losses because of my grandmother’s death (2016 South Carolina) or our son’s birth (2017 Georgia). But this is the only loss I remember not writing anything for because it simply felt like there was nothing to say except, “We’re going to have to wait another three years.”

1 2015 Florida

We’ll talk in a moment about where this game goes on a list of most heartbreaking losses beyond these last ten years. But within the last ten years, this one, by far, is at the top for me. Beyond the streak and the individual madness of 4th-and-14 are the failures on both sides of the ball. You’ve got multiple fourth down conversions allowed, infamously not going for two, and a final drive after 4th-and-14 when Tennessee had two timeouts and 1:26 but somehow ran only five plays before settling for a 55-yard field goal attempt. And of all the losses on this list, this one was by far the most costly. 2016 South Carolina might have cost the Vols the East. But we know this one did, in a year when Tennessee took two playoff teams to the wire. If any one of a dozen things goes differently in this game, Tennessee breaks the streak a year early, and Josh Dobbs and company get their rings and another shot at Alabama. But alas.

Where would we put any of these on a longer list? Using our 2010 list of the worst losses from 1990-2009, I’d add only one to that Top 10. But I would put 2015 Florida way up there:

Worst Losses 1990-2017

1. 2001 LSU (SEC Championship)
2. 1990 Alabama
3. 2015 Florida
4. 2001 Georgia
5. 1999 Arkansas
6. 2000 Florida
7. 1993 Alabama (tied)
8. 1996 Memphis
9. 2007 LSU (SEC Championship)
10. 1995 Florida

Three years later, I think 2015 Florida is worse than the Hobnailed Boot. This is mostly because the Hobnailed Boot didn’t hurt us in the end: if not for the number one game on that list, the Vols are playing for the BCS Championship despite the loss to Georgia.

That’s our list. What’s yours?

 

In the quiet of the early summer, we’ve often spent time with Tennessee’s history. Way back in the summer of 2009 at Rocky Top Talk, we counted down the 50 Best Games of the Fulmer Era. The following year we looked at Tennessee’s 20 Most Heartbreaking Losses from 1990-2009. I’ve been going back through the latter this week, comparing some of our toughest losses in the nine years since to see where they might rank. We’ll do that exercise in full later this week, but I want to start with one game in particular.

I was a history major; even as an idiot optimist, I believe there is value in examining our toughest defeats. But what qualifies a game for that list can and will change, specifically based on the quality and quantity of victory surrounding it.

Case in point: how do you feel about this game, nine years later?

So it’s still no fun to watch, of course. But how do you think of it in the context of the last ten years?

When we did our original list of the 20 most heartbreaking losses from 1990-2009, we ranked this game #11, and almost apologized for having it that low. Recency bias was a factor, even with Lane Kiffin out and Derek Dooley in when we did the original list. But in the summer of 2010, we placed it above heart-breakers like the 1990 tie with Auburn and four Florida losses (1996, 1997, 1999, 2002).

This week, when I was putting together my list of the ten worst losses of the last ten years, it didn’t even make the cut.

To be fair, there are more losses to choose from in the last ten years than in the 20 preceding them. That’s literally true, by the way: from 1989-2007 the Vols lost 54 times, plus their first six of the 1988 season. From 2008-2017, the Vols lost 63 times.

But here too, it’s both quantity and quality that count. Tennessee has not had much opportunity for the kind of heartbreak that dominated our old list. How we experience defeat has changed. Our worst losses used to make us mourn what we gave away. Now they make us wonder if we’ll ever get it back.

In 2009, that loss to #1 Alabama was heartbreaking. But it’s not just the sequence of events, the ranking, or the rival. In 2009, we were still attached to the idea of who Tennessee had been for all those years prior. Lane Kiffin’s 45-19 win over Georgia two weeks earlier helped us do that. And the loss to Alabama didn’t take it away; even at 7-6 at the end of the season, fans were very optimistic Kiffin could get the Vols where we wanted to go. Two losses to the number one team in the country, two others by four points each, and a bowl loss to a Virginia Tech team that finished the year fourth in S&P+. We rioted, in part, because we believed in what was happening up until the very moment it was over. And today we enjoy comparing the makeup of Jeremy Pruitt’s staff to Kiffin’s.

In the moment, the 2009 Alabama loss belongs on a list of painful near misses from a championship-caliber Tennessee program. But nine years later, 2009 isn’t the bridge between Fulmer and Kiffin on the straight and narrow road of victory. It’s Exit 2A into the ditch, and there aren’t even any good gas stations.

The program’s inability to sustain success over a decade cut a hard tie from the past, and instead created an era of its own. Viewed through the lens of 2009, the loss to Alabama is heartbreaking. Viewed through the lens of the last decade, it’s a near-miss moral victory akin to 2013 Georgia. The Vols played an equally competitive game with an equally good Alabama squad in Tuscaloosa in 2015, and I don’t think any of us would put it on a list of the ten worst losses of the last ten years either.

Losing always hurts. But it’s not just that the stakes have been lower for most of the last ten years. It’s that this ditch is long and muddy, and you need really good vision to still see the shiny objects in our rear view. At some point it became normal, and our definitions of great wins and bad losses changed based on our surroundings.

The funny thing here isn’t really funny, because we’re putting enough hope in it to take it very seriously: we asked Phillip Fulmer to get out of the car when it was teetering on the edge. Opinions still vary over how many tires were in the ditch back then. And now, after trying and failing in unique and messy ways over the course of almost a decade, Fulmer has the keys again and got to pick the driver. And when in doubt at any point over the last six months, it’s Fulmer’s presence – a shiny object out of the rear view and riding shotgun – that gives me the most hope.

There’s some mud and messiness left, no doubt. Jeremy Pruitt will chase forward progress, with wins and losses along the way this year and beyond. I hope he gets us to a point when losing to #1 Alabama by two points hurts just as much nine years later as the day it happened. And I hope for wins with an even longer memory.

 

 

Earlier this week we all went a few rounds on Tennessee’s non-conference scheduling habits; I argued if you don’t want to schedule the likes of Oklahoma but you don’t want to schedule the likes of Kansas, the Vols should look at short drives to non-Clemson ACC schools as well as teams like Washington, Michigan State, and Stanford we’ve never faced before. That conversation got me thinking about how Tennessee’s scheduling practices compare to the rest of the league.

Here’s a look at every SEC team’s biggest non-conference regular season opponent since expansion in 2012. Obviously Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina have annual rivalries that make up much of the list; kudos to the Dawgs for scheduling additional marquee games in four of the last six years.

Tennessee faced three ranked non-conference teams (on gameday) in the last six years, plus a Virginia Tech team in 2016 that finished the year that way. Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina all faced more than three ranked teams specifically due to their rivalries. Again, Georgia deserves credit for scheduling up outside of their friends from Atlanta: the Dawgs went home-and-home with Clemson in 2013 and 2014, played North Carolina in the Georgia Dome in 2016, and traveled to South Bend last year.

Outside of teams with annual rivalries, only Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn played more ranked non-conference teams in the last six years than Tennessee, at four each. Three of Auburn’s four came from Clemson. Alabama, who has played neutral site season openers only the last six years, faced ranked teams four times.

Where Tennessee’s non-conference schedule really carries weight is in Top 10 teams. The Vols traveled to #2 Oregon and #4 Oklahoma in Butch Jones’ first two years (then hosted #19 Oklahoma in year three, a future playoff team). That ties Tennessee with Alabama, Auburn, and Florida in having faced two Top 10 non-conference foes in the last six years; South Carolina leads by virtue of playing four Top 10 Clemson squads at the end of the year.

Additional notes from this exercise: Missouri has not played a ranked non-conference team in the regular season since joining the SEC. And Mississippi State has played only one in the last six years, #13 Oklahoma State in 2013.

Here’s the slate for 2018:

• Alabama: vs Louisville (Orlando)
• Arkansas: at Colorado State
• Auburn: vs Washington (Atlanta)
• Florida: at Florida State
• Georgia: Georgia Tech
• Kentucky: at Louisville
• LSU: vs Miami (Arlington)
• Ole Miss: vs Texas Tech (Houston)
• Mississippi State: at Kansas State
• Missouri: at Purdue
• South Carolina: at Clemson
• Tennessee: vs West Virginia (Charlotte)
• Texas A&M: Clemson
• Vanderbilt: at Notre Dame

 

So John Adams lit the familiar off-season flame of non-conference scheduling today, arguing the Vols shouldn’t be scheduling the likes of Oklahoma in the future. The Sooners are back for a home-and-home in Norman in 2020 and Knoxville in 2024.

Adams’ point is that Tennessee’s schedule is already hard enough without including a marquee non-conference foe. He leaves out the fact that the Vols will face BYU (a team we’ve never played) and Pittsburgh (the Johnny Majors Bowl) home-and-home between 2019-2023. The Cougars and Panthers aren’t exactly on Oklahoma’s level.

Things have obviously changed for Tennessee too. The Vols ain’t what they used to be when Phillip Fulmer was the head coach and not the athletic director. In his 17 seasons as the helm, Tennessee played one or both parts of a home-and-home with Louisville, UCLA (thrice), Syracuse, Notre Dame (twice), Miami, and California. Eight of those match-ups were against Top 20 foes when gameday rolled around. The Vols also scheduled series with Oregon and Oklahoma while Fulmer was still the coach, as well as home-and-homes that were eventually cancelled with North Carolina and Ohio State, plus a series with Nebraska that may or may not be happening in 2026 and 2027.

Fulmer’s teams played anyone, anywhere, anytime. But one of the reasons the Vols have struggled in his absence is the SEC has gotten better, and not just at Georgia. Beating South Carolina stopped being free when Steve Spurrier arrived some 13 years ago. The Vols haven’t beaten an SEC West team since 2010. And since 2011, Tennessee is just 8-6 against Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

(deep breaths)

So even if Jeremy Pruitt does a good job, the week-to-week challenge in conference play will be steeper than what Fulmer faced in the 90’s. That being the case, what’s an appropriate compromise for Tennessee in future non-conference scheduling? (And remember, the emphasis is on “future”: the Vols have their marquee foe under contract through 2024, plus maybe Nebraska in ’26 and ’27).

Each SEC team is required to schedule a power-five (or Notre Dame/BYU) foe every season. I don’t think any of us are pulling for the Vols to lock down Kansas and Rutgers. But I’m also not sure it’s wise to court Clemson at this very moment. Whenever you do dream non-conference match-ups, you always get the big three teams who have never played in Neyland Stadium – Michigan, Ohio State, Texas – but those traditional powers may not also be at the top of a wise athletic director’s list while Jeremy Pruitt is trying to turn this thing around (or if the guy after Pruitt is trying to do the same).

So if you don’t want to play the very best but you don’t want to cupcake it up, what’s a reasonable alternative for Tennessee?

Two schools of thought on this:

Short Drives to ACC Country:

• Louisville: The Cards will always have Kentucky, but since making the jump to the ACC have played Auburn in Atlanta and will face Alabama in Orlando this year. It’s less than four hours from Knoxville to Louisville; the Vols and Cards last faced off in the first ever ESPN Thursday Night Football game at Louisville in 1991, then in Knoxville in 1993.
• North Carolina: Taken off the board during the Mike Hamilton/Derek Dooley tenure just in time to prevent payback for the 2010 Music City Bowl. Five hours of I-40 separate Knoxville and Chapel Hill, with a split fan base in Western North Carolina.
• Virginia Tech: The Battle at Bristol was great, but these two still deserve a home-and-home. It’s 3.5 hours from Knoxville to Blacksburg, and the Hokies are always game in the non-conference scheduling department, famously beating Ohio State in Columbus in 2014.

Teams The Vols Have Never Faced (now that West Virginia and BYU are off the list):

• Michigan State: Fans might be more excited to see the Big House, but Michigan State actually has the better win percentage this decade. I actually think scheduling either team from the Mitten State would be an appropriate move for the Vols at this time; go for the Spartans and you can stay 1-0 forever against the Wolverines and just keep running that Jason Witten clip.
• Stanford: Fulmer loved putting the Vols in California during his time; Tennessee has faced UCLA more than any other team it’s never shared a conference with. But the Vols and Cardinal have never met; could be a fun west coast option. An alternative thought here: Arizona State, also 0-0 against the Vols lifetime, in a celebratory return to Tempe.
• Washington: I’m not sure any school should court a Chris Petersen team, but this one makes a ton of sense. There’s a built-in fight between the fan bases over who has the best waterfront, plus I can tell you from calling Washington a sub-lateral move from Tennessee for Justin Wilcox (which was totally true in 2012), you would enjoy getting into it with them. From Fulmer’s perspective I’m not sure you get any added recruiting bonus playing on the Huskies’ turf, but this is the one I’d like to see most among teams the Vols have never faced.

What do you think? Which one of these would you like to see most? Or give us a better idea in the comments below.

 

In this year’s Gameday on Rocky Top preseason magazine, I wrote a narrative review of Jeremy Pruitt’s defenses at Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama. The numbers from Tallahassee and Tuscaloosa represent a ceiling you hope Pruitt can approach in Knoxville: Florida State had the best defense in college football in 2013, Alabama the last two years. It’s impressive Pruitt was able to accomplish that in his first season as defensive coordinator with those two teams, but some heavy lifting was done in recruiting before he arrived, and both of his predecessors left to become head coaches in the SEC.

So if you’re looking for a good comparison for Tennessee in year one, I wouldn’t use Florida State or Alabama. They’re the long-term goals; expecting the 2018 Vol defense to be the best in college football is an exercise in futility. But if we want a taste of what we might expect, Pruitt’s 2014 Georgia defense offers a much more fair comparison.

Todd Grantham’s final season as Georgia’s defensive coordinator in 2013 featured eight games when the Dawgs gave up 30+ points. They also forced just 15 turnovers in 13 games, 111th nationally. Georgia went 8-5, Grantham went to Louisville, and Pruitt headed to Athens. The Dawgs just missed a BCS Championship Game appearance the year before in 2012, winning their second straight division title. The program was in a healthier place in Pruitt’s first year than Tennessee’s is now. Georgia had also signed classes ranked between 8th-12th in the 247 Composite from 2012-14, a more consistent recruiting presence than Tennessee enjoyed at the end of Butch Jones’ tenure. But there are enough similarities, including significant room for improvement, for what Pruitt did in his first year with Georgia’s defense to inform the conversation on what he and his staff could do with Tennessee’s this fall.

The Year One Roller Coaster

The theme for Georgia’s defense in 2014 was inconsistency, a year one staple crop. When the Dawgs were good, they were very good. That started in week one with a 45-21 win over #16 Clemson. The Tigers gained just 291 yards and 3.83 yards per play, including only 88 yards on the ground. True freshman Deshaun Watson only saw back-up duty, but that wouldn’t last long.

The win vaulted Georgia to #6 in the polls headed to South Carolina, which was torched by Texas A&M (Kenny Football!) in week one. But not only was Pruitt’s defense unable to turn in another stellar performance, they played one of their worst games of the year. South Carolina went for 447 yards and 38 points, and a late goal-line stand led to a missed chip shot field goal for Georgia in a 38-35 Gamecock victory. Dylan Thompson was 21-of-30 for 271 yards (9.0 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns.

So it went for Georgia in 2014. They shut out Troy in a 66-0 win, then hosted Tennessee the following week. The Vols piled up 401 yards of offense, including a 23-of-35 for 264 yards and three touchdowns performance from Justin Worley, who was knocked out of the game briefly. Two second half fumbles in crucial moments doomed the Vols in a 35-32 loss, but Worley’s performance was good enough to keep Josh Dobbs on the bench for another month.

After Georgia beat Vanderbilt 44-17, Worley’s performance looked even better when the Dawgs went to #23 Missouri and shut the Tigers out 34-0. Maty Mauk went 9-of-21 for 97 yards (4.6 yards per pass) and was intercepted four times. And on the ground, the Tigers carried it 23 times for just 50 yards. It was the best performance of the year for Georgia’s defense (and, remember, the Dawgs are doing this with Hutson Mason at quarterback).

Back in the Top 10, the Dawgs had their sights set on Atlanta and more. Georgia led Arkansas 45-19 in the fourth quarter before allowing two late scores in a 45-32 win. Then they had a bye week before facing the hated Florida Gators. At this point, Georgia had won three straight in the series. But not this time: Florida ran for 418 yards while attempting only six passes in the game (remember Treon Harris?), and it was more than enough in a 38-20 win. Georgia had the league’s second-best rushing defense coming in, but allowed seven yards per carry to the Gators. More alarmingly, the defense’s two most costly performances (South Carolina and Florida) both came after bye weeks. This loss cost the Dawgs the SEC East: Georgia beat Missouri 34-0, but the Tigers didn’t lose again in league play.

But the roller coaster had twists and turns left still. After beating Kentucky 63-31, Georgia hosted #9 Auburn and bottled them up 34-7. Nick Marshall completed 11-of-23 passes for only 112 yards and the Dawgs forced three turnovers. After beating Charleston Southern, #9 Georgia faced #16 Georgia Tech in the regular season finale. A weird game featuring multiple blocked kicks and fumbles in goal-to-go situations, including a 99-yard scoop-and-score for the Georgia defense, ended on an overtime interception by the Yellow Jackets for a 30-24 GT win.

The loss knocked Georgia out of New Year’s Six contention and sent them instead to the Belk Bowl to face #21 Louisville. But the Dawgs made sure the season ended on a high note, blasting the Cardinals 37-14. Louisville ran 27 times for only 62 yards.

After finishing 54th in yards per play allowed in 2013, the Dawgs improved to 17th in Pruitt’s first year. While still allowing 30+ points six times, it was an improvement over Grantham’s eight the previous year. And they nearly doubled their turnover output, going from 15 in 2013 to 29 in 2014.

What Do We Learn From The Roller Coaster?

The comparison made by many with this Tennessee staff is the one Lane Kiffin brought in during the 2009 season. That group rode a similar roller coaster with similar relative success. The Clawfense was 110th in yards per play in 2008; Kiffin improved them to 53rd in 2009. That group struggled early, then turned the mother of all corners against Georgia with 7.38 yards per play and 45 points. They were good enough to have a shot to beat Alabama and took down South Carolina. But they also came crashing back to earth in a blowout loss at Ole Miss with only 275 yards of offense, and were largely ineffective in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Virginia Tech (240 yards).

We obviously don’t get the Year Two data on Kiffin, but it’s comforting to know that Year Two at Georgia for Pruitt featured a defense that dominated everyone but superior competition, with one exception. In 2015 the Dawgs got torched by Alabama, then famously gave up a bunch of yards and points to Josh Dobbs and the Vols in a 38-31 Tennessee comeback. They also struggled again with Florida in a stunning loss, one that would ultimately close the book on Mark Richt’s time in Athens. But in every other game that season, Pruitt’s defense was lights out. South Carolina scored 20 points, but Georgia scored 52. Vanderbilt, Missouri, Kentucky, and Auburn all scored 14 points or less, as did Georgia Tech. Penn State got 17 in the bowl game.

I imagine Tennessee fans would take this same scenario: a roller coaster year one that makes overall improvement defensively, and a year two unit that may still struggle against the very best but starts imposing its will on everyone else.

 

Jason Witten is retiring after 15 years with the Dallas Cowboys. The former Vol will be neither gone or forgotten:

Breaking: Jason Witten is retiring from the Cowboys and joining ESPN as an analyst for Monday Night Football, multiple sources tell @toddarcher. pic.twitter.com/JnPvCrvzNW

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 3, 2018

Tennessee currently has two players in the Pro Football Hall of Fame: Doug Atkins and Reggie White. Peyton Manning will be the third in three more years. All three already have their number retired at Tennessee.

What do you do with Jason Witten?

The Elizabethton native trails only Tony Gonzalez in every major statistical category among NFL tight ends all-time. He retires fourth all-time among all players in NFL receptions. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Man of the Year. And he played more games than anyone in a Dallas Cowboys uniform.

Witten is a lock for Canton. The initial criteria for number retirement at Tennessee required far more than that, but was waived for Johnny Majors in 2012.

However, Witten’s career in Knoxville didn’t produce the sort of accolades one associates with that particular honor. As a sophomore in 2001 he played on a dynamic offense with Donte Stallworth, Kelley Washington, and a pound-the-rock mentality that nearly carried Travis Stephens to the Doak Walker Award. His contributions were memorable, including a big touchdown against Alabama and leaving the entire Michigan defense in the dust. But he only caught 28 passes for 293 yards.

As a junior in 2002, Witten suffered when injuries to Casey Clausen and Kelley Washington severely limited Tennessee’s passing attack. He still earned first-team All-SEC honors with 39 catches for 493 yards and five touchdowns, including the game-winner in the sixth overtime against Arkansas. Witten opted to leave for the NFL before a senior season could have improved his legacy at UT, but it was clearly the right decision.

What do you do with such a player, a future Pro Football Hall of Famer who didn’t necessarily have the opportunity to be a College Football Hall of Famer? The current answer is, “Put him on the JumboTron”, where he joins Al Wilson and, in years past, Condredge Holloway: beloved former Vols who may not get their number retired, but made a lasting impact on Tennessee Football. The university now has an all-sports Hall of Fame, which I’m sure Witten could make his way to one day. But I wonder if there’s a place for something more specific to football to celebrate former Vols.

Witten may not find his way to jersey retirement; for my generation, #1 makes me think of Leonard Little more than Witten in a Tennessee uniform. But there are other players who will fall short of jersey retirement status, but are well-deserving of additional recognition.

For example: this fall we’ll celebrate the 20th anniversary of the 1998 National Championship, a group led by Al Wilson (who is in the all-sports UT Hall of Fame). But it’s also the 25th anniversary of Heath Shuler’s Heisman runner-up season, still the greatest statistical offense in school history. Shuler was the third pick in the NFL Draft, and though his pro career obviously didn’t pan out, it feels like his amazing college career gets more lost in the mist every year. It doesn’t help when you’re immediately followed by Peyton Manning, but still. The proverbial kids today should know about more than just Atkins, White, Majors and Manning. Witten’s NFL career should ensure he’s on that list anyway. Tennessee should find a way to celebrate it well.

The good news: these are the kind of things you’re probably in good hands with when the man in charge is Phillip Fulmer.

Congrats to Jason Witten on an incredible career.

If tomorrow’s game actually is a 1’s vs 1’s, 2’s vs 2’s situation, the release of the rosters today may tell us more about how Jeremy Pruitt’s first team will look than the actual Orange & White Game itself:

🍊 ORANGE vs. WHITE ⚪️

Who you got? #PoweredByTheT

Full Roster: https://t.co/YNL4TUleKg pic.twitter.com/3nRcFz5DcQ

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) April 20, 2018

With the Orange team representing the first team offense and second team defense and vice-versa with the White, we can create a rough draft post-spring depth chart. The Vols chose to include injured players like Jauan Jennings in the mix, so we will too:

QB	Jarrett Guarantano	RSo	Keller Chryst	RSr
RB	Ty Chandler	So	Tim Jordan	So
WR	Marquez Callaway	Jr	Josh Palmer	So
WR	Jauan Jennings	RJr	Latrell Williams	RSo
WR	Brandon Johnson	Jr	Tyler Byrd	Jr
TE	Eli Wolf	RSo	Austin Pope	RSo
OT	Trey Smith	So	Marcus Tatum	So
OG	Riley Locklear	So	Greg Emerson	Fr
C	Ryan Johnson	RSo	Nathan Niehaus	RSo
OG	Jerome Carvin	Fr	Ollie Lane	Fr
OT	Drew Richmond	RJr	Chance Hall	RJr
DE	Jonathan Kongbo	RSr	Matthew Butler	So
DT	Shy Tuttle	Sr	Alexis Johnson	RSr
DE	Kyle Phillips	Sr	Deandre Johnson	So
LB	Daniel Bituli	Jr	Quart’e Sapp	RJr
LB	Darrin Kirkland	RJr	Austin Smith	RJr
LB	Darrell Taylor	RJr	Will Ignont	So
CB	Marquill Osborne	Jr	Alontae Taylor	Fr
CB	Shawn Shamburger	So	Carlin Fils-Aime	Jr
NB	Baylen Buchanan	Jr	Cheyenne Labruzza	RFr
S	Nigel Warrior	Jr	Todd Kelly Jr	RSr
S	Micah Abernathy	Sr	Theo Jackson	So

A couple of notes and observations:

• With Carlin Fils-Aime apparently sticking in the secondary, I’m assuming Tim Jordan being listed on the orange team behind Ty Chandler effectively makes him the current second option in the backfield.
• With Jennings out, it looks like Josh Palmer will join Marquez Callaway and Brandon Johnson as the starters at receiver, which is essentially how the Vols line up most often last fall at that position.
• There’s a whole bunch of guesswork on the offensive line, but these assumptions include Trey Smith back at tackle, as well as Chance Hall (though I listed him second team behind Drew Richmond for now). But even if that’s the case, the Vols are going to need something from someone young at guard right away.
• The defensive line is the former recruiting stars capital of the team, where it’s easy to talk yourself into, “This coaching staff will finally get them to live up to their potential!” They might! But Kongbo, Tuttle, and Phillips will all graduate this year, so any progress on the defensive line will only be of the one-year variety in the starting lineup.
• Tennessee needs more help at corner.

What am I interpreting incorrectly? What do you see here?

Setting a reasonable expectation is never easy in college football, especially in a new coach’s first year. For Jeremy Pruitt, five wins would be a literal improvement; six and a bowl berth would probably earn a nod of approval. But it’s not exactly the same as in Butch Jones’ first season, when a bowl appearance would have been the first in three years and a ranked win the first in four.

In a coach’s first year fans are more free with grace and more reliant on hope. The former will be there, particularly if recruiting is going well. And any opportunity you get to cash in on the latter can carry a coach and a program well into the future.

To help us figure out what a reasonable expectation for Jeremy Pruitt is in 2018, here’s a look back at the last year one for each of the 14 SEC schools. There’s quite the spectrum here, teaching us again that you just never know how these things are going to turn out. We’ve included Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, which is helpful in showing the distance between a former coach’s final year and a new coach’s first year, especially when the records are often similar. Take a look:

ALABAMA: Nick Saban, 2007

• Record: 7-6 (57th S&P+)
• Previous Two Years: 6-7 (31st S&P+), 10-2 (15th)
• Meaningful Wins: #16 Arkansas, #21 Tennessee
• Bad Losses: Louisiana-Monroe
• Was year one a success? Eh. It probably would have been considered one before the November 17 loss to ULM.
• What did they build on? Recruiting, but also margin of defeat. Alabama lost all six games by one possession, three of them to ranked teams.
• Did it work out long-term? I think so.

ARKANSAS: Bret Bielema, 2013

• Record: 3-9 (67th)
• Previous Two Years: 4-8 (39th), 11-2 (15th)
• Meaningful Wins: none
• Bad Losses: Rutgers
• Was year one a success? No, though this was a tougher assignment following basically a lost year in 2012 with the Bobby Petrino scandal.
• What did they build on? A late season surge: after losing their first six SEC games by at least 10 points, the Razorbacks lost to Mississippi State in overtime and to #15 LSU by four points.
• Did it work out long-term? No. Bielema had the surest track record of any SEC hire in 2013, but never did better than 8-5 and was fired last fall after going 4-8.

AUBURN: Gus Malzahn, 2013

• Record: 12-2 (5th)
• Previous Two Years: 3-9 (73rd), 8-5 (43rd)
• Meaningful Wins: Beat five ranked teams including #1 Alabama, won the SEC Championship and played in the BCS title game.
• Bad Losses: none
• Was year one a success? Definitely. It helps to inherit recruiting classes that finished 5th, 11th, and 10th from 2011-2013.
• What did they build on? When you almost win the national championship in year one, what don’t you build on?
• Did it work out long-term? Mostly. Auburn is only 33-20 in the last four years, but has a pair of New Year’s Six appearances and won the SEC West in 2017.

FLORIDA: Jim McElwain, 2015

• Record: 10-4 (30th)
• Previous Two Years: 7-5 (24th), 4-8 (33rd). Will Muschamp’s teams lost seven one possession games in his last two years at Florida.
• Meaningful Wins: Tennessee, #3 Ole Miss, Georgia
• Bad Losses: None, but did lose to Michigan 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl
• Was year one a success? Definitely, but the end of the year soured it some and the loss of Will Grier would make a huge difference.
• What did they build on? September and October, before the offense died.
• Did it work out long-term? No. McElwain won the East again in 2016, but didn’t seem to be a good fit and was relieved of his duties after a 3-4 start in 2017.

GEORGIA: Kirby Smart, 2016

• Record: 8-5 (68th)
• Previous Two Years: 10-3 (45th), 10-3 (4th)
• Meaningful Wins: #22 North Carolina in the season opener, #8 Auburn
• Bad Losses: Vanderbilt
• Was year one a success? Eh. It’s a tough ask for a coach to improve on back-to-back 10-win seasons in his first year.
• What did they build on? Recruiting, and they were right to.
• Did it work out long-term? Definitely. Mark Richt’s own recruiting left plenty of talent in Athens, and Smart cashed it in with a textbook year two surge last fall, one play short of a national championship.

KENTUCKY: Mark Stoops, 2013

• Record: 2-10 (84th)
• Previous Two Years: 2-10 (75th), 5-7 (93rd). Not all 5-7’s are created equal; UK was actually worse play-for-play in 2011 than 2012.
• Meaningful Wins: none
• Bad Losses: Western Kentucky
• Was year one a success? No.
• What did they build on? Recruiting.
• Did it work out long-term? It’s been a slow burn, but Stoops went 5-7 the next two years, then 7-6 the last two years.

LSU: Ed Orgeron, 2017

• Record: 9-4 (19th)
• Previous Two Years: 8-4 (4th), 9-3 (11th)
• Meaningful Wins: #10 Auburn
• Bad Losses: Troy
• Was year one a success: If we count Orgeron’s 6-2 run as the interim in 2016, maybe. If we count last season…it’s indistinguishable from the end of Les Miles’ tenure in results, and the quality of play on the field was worse in S&P+.
• What did they build on? The coach’s personality?
• Did it work out long-term? DaCoachO has to wait and see.

OLE MISS: Hugh Freeze, 2012

• Record: 7-6 (19th)
• Previous Two Years: 2-10 (76th), 4-8 (56th)
• Meaningful Wins: Auburn, #25 Mississippi State
• Bad Losses: none
• Was year one a success: Definitely, and relatively speaking maybe the biggest one of this group of 14. Not only did Ole Miss make its first bowl game in three years, three of their six losses came by six points or less. This was a huge jump from a 2-10 season the year before.
• What did they build on? All of this, plus recruiting.
• Did it work out long-term? It definitely did until Hugh Freeze had to be fired for off-the-field issues.

MISSISSIPPI STATE: Dan Mullen, 2009

• Record: 5-7 (33rd)
• Previous Two Years: 4-8 (95th), 8-5 (55th)
• Meaningful Wins: #25 Ole Miss
• Bad Losses: Houston
• Was year one a success: The answer to this might be “eh”, but look at the jump they made in S&P+. Sylvester Croom’s last team lost four games by at least 25 points. Mullen’s first team only had two such losses despite playing five ranked teams, three in the top seven. Even though they didn’t get bowl eligible, that Egg Bowl win was a huge note to end on.
• What did they build on? Competitiveness
• Did it work out long-term? Yes.

MISSOURI: Barry Odom, 2016

• Record: 4-8 (69th)
• Previous Two Years: 5-7 (83rd), 11-3 (28th)
• Meaningful Wins: Arkansas
• Bad Losses: MTSU
• Was year one a success: No. Odom wasn’t in year one because the previous coach didn’t work out, but the Tigers did slightly improve in S&P+.
• What did they build on? …I’m unsure, I think we all thought this one wouldn’t work.
• Did it work out long-term? Mizzou was 7-6 last year, so we’ll see. Odom’s fate may now be tied to Derek Dooley’s as offensive coordinator.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Will Muschamp, 2016

• Record: 6-7 (89th S&P+)
• Previous Two Years: 3-9 (85th), 7-6 (40th)
• Meaningful Wins: #18 Tennessee
• Bad Losses: none
• Was year one a success: Compared to 2015, definitely. Compared to South Carolina’s resume from 2010-13, less so.
• What did they build on? Recruiting
• Did it work out long-term? Carolina bounced to 9-4 last year, in line with the expectations Steve Spurrier created.

TENNESSEE: Butch Jones, 2013

• Record: 5-7 (47th)
• Previous Two Years: 5-7 (38th), 5-7 (30th)
• Meaningful Wins: #11 South Carolina
• Bad Losses: none
• Was year one a success: As was the case with most of Butch Jones’ tenure, almost.
• What did they build on? Recruiting
• Did it work out long-term? It almost did, and then it really didn’t. Critical for Jones in year one were a pair of missed opportunities against Georgia and Vanderbilt, either of which would have earned bowl eligibility and a significant dose of early credibility.

TEXAS A&M: Kevin Sumlin, 2012

• Record: 11-2 (2nd)
• Previous Two Years: 7-6 (8th), 9-4 (22nd). Very sneaky sir: Mike Sherman’s last team lost four games to ranked teams by a combined 10 points, one of them in four overtimes. They also lost to Missouri in overtime and blasted #20 Baylor by 27 points. We didn’t know it in their first year in the SEC, but these guys were already a great team in disguise. Add in Johnny Manziel, and you get 11-2.
• Meaningful Wins: Four ranked teams, including #1 Alabama
• Bad Losses: none
• Was year one a success? Definitely
• What did they build on? Johnny Football
• Did it work out long-term? Surprisingly, no. Sumlin went 9-4 the next year, then three straight 8-5’s, then 7-5 before A&M made a change.

VANDERBILT: Derek Mason, 2014

• Record: 3-9 (110th)
• Previous Two Years: 9-4 (68th), 8-4 (55th). Franklin’s teams didn’t set the world on fire in S&P+, but this is still the steepest year one drop for any SEC team on this list.
• Meaningful Wins: none
• Bad Losses: Temple, 37-7 in the season opener
• Was year one a success? No.
• What did they build on? No idea.
• Did it work out long-term? He hasn’t been James Franklin, but Mason improved to 4-8, 6-7, and 5-7 the last three years.

What can we learn?

Gus Malzahn and Kevin Sumlin can create unrealistic expectations; Malzahn could rely on Top 10 talent, Sumlin on a Heisman Trophy winner with a team that was already close. The Vols have some talent left behind from Butch Jones, but not enough to expect the unexpected in terms of this team’s ceiling.

The better comparison is in the state of Mississippi. Dan Mullen didn’t get MSU to a bowl game in his first year, but secured a lasting memory by beating Ole Miss and made his team far more competitive. Hugh Freeze got seven wins from a group that won just two the year before and backed it up with elite recruiting, getting his team to 8-5 the next year then two straight New Year’s Six appearances.

Tennessee finished 107th in S&P+ last year, worse than any team on this list when it made a coaching change. Five of Tennessee’s losses came by 18+ points. In many ways there’s nowhere to go but up. We’ll learn more about Pruitt’s recruiting between now and September 1. But just as important as the final record between 5-7 and 7-5 is how the Vols get there: are we more competitive, and can Pruitt create a lasting memory to build on in year one?