Author Archives: Will Shelton

Last year the SEC rose from its slumber: after placing three teams in the 2017 Elite Eight, the league sent eight to the dance floor last March. Six won in the first round. And then, disappointment.

No. 3 seed Tennessee lost to No. 11 Loyola-Chicago. No. 4 seed Auburn lost to Clemson by 31 points. Only two SEC teams made it through to the Sweet 16, where No. 5 seed Kentucky lost to No. 9 seed Kansas State, and Texas A&M was routed by Michigan after routing North Carolina in the second round.

In KenPom, the league had no teams in the Top 10 but five ranked between 13-29. No one was special, but plenty were really good. And at the bottom, only Ole Miss was ranked outside the Top 100 (108th).

Entering league play in 2019, the league looks a little better in KenPom: still no one in the Top 10, but five teams between 11-20. The AP voters think even more highly of the league’s best: the Vols are third and receiving first-place votes, Auburn and Kentucky sit at 12 and 13, Mississippi State at 17, and Florida is receiving votes.

Those five look like safe bets for the NCAA Tournament; they’re joined by LSU with a Top 35 NET rating and in the most recent Bracket Matrix:

Based on the matrix field, here's one way you can bracket it. pic.twitter.com/9cGLwkaoNH

— Bracket Project (@bracketproject) December 31, 2018

The Vols and a Number One Seed

At this point, chasing the first No. 1 seed in program history is a reasonable goal. Last year we looked at the records of the last No. 1 seed and all four No. 2 seeds since 2012. Six times in the last seven years, the lowest No. 1 seed either had six or seven losses, or was Gonzaga. Only in 2015 (undefeated Kentucky, 32-2 Villanova, 31-3 Wisconsin, 29-4 Duke) have we seen four truly elite No. 1 seeds.

Tennessee already has a leg up on Gonzaga via head-to-head; keep an eye on Nevada at 13-0, but right now the Vols are on pace to be in this conversation all year. KenPom projects Tennessee to win the SEC at 13-5, which would send the Vols to the SEC Tournament at 25-6. Tennessee is one of seven power conference teams projected to go to their conference tournament with between four and seven losses. We’ll see if anyone can separate themselves from the pack, but matching last year’s 13-5 SEC run could be enough to both win the league and get a one seed.

Something else to keep an eye on for the NCAA Tournament: the closest first-and-second-round venue is Columbia, SC. That will also be the closest option for any ACC Champion from North Carolina or Virginia. The bigger prize: the regional final in Louisville. Those same ACC teams would prefer Washington DC, and the Jayhawks would love Kansas City. So you might want to keep an eye on Big Ten teams like Michigan who would also prefer Louisville. The Final Four is in Minneapolis, if you’re into 14-hour drives.

What to Expect From the SEC

Rebuilding/Reloading:

• South Carolina (5-7, 126 KenPom) – Somehow Chris Silva is still in school, but the Gamecocks have losses to Stony Brook, Providence, Wofford, and Wyoming, plus Michigan and Virginia.
• Georgia (8-4, 108 KenPom) – Tom Crean’s first team is 319th in turnovers and 310th in turnovers forced.
• Texas A&M (6-5, 97 KenPom) – A 15-point loss to Texas Southern ended a five-game winning streak after a 1-4 start. The Aggies are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country (29.1%).

The Bubble:

• Missouri (9-3, 72 KenPom) – It’s what you expect from Cuonzo: 322nd in tempo, early struggles against Iowa State, Kansas State, and Temple, but now on a six-game win streak including UCF and Xavier. The Tigers have also benefited from teams shooting just 62.3% from the free throw line against them. Appearing in 2.8% of the Bracket Matrix.
• Alabama (9-3, 63 KenPom) – Losses to Northeastern and Georgia State, but wins over five Top 100 teams. 6’7″ sophomore Herbert Jones is 34th nationally in free throw rate, and Donta Hall is 28th in true shooting percentage. Appearing in 8.6% of the Bracket Matrix.
• Vanderbilt (9-3, 59 KenPom) – Lost freshman Darius Garland for the year to a knee injury, but fellow freshman Simi Shittu has done a nice job picking up the slack from the post. The names you know and love are gone (Fisher-Davis, LaChance, Roberson), but these guys are young and get after it inside the arc on both ends. Double-digit losses to NC State and Kansas State, a double-digit win over Arizona State. Bracket Matrix next four out.
• Arkansas (9-3, 57 KenPom) – Three losses by seven total points to Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky, and Texas in overtime. A one-point win over Indiana is currently their only selling point. Still fast (47th in tempo), but actually more efficient on the defensive end this year. Appearing in 11.4% of the Bracket Matrix.
• Ole Miss (10-2, 47 KenPom) – The biggest mystery in the league entering conference play. Kermit Davis’s first team lost to Butler and Cincinnati but beat Baylor and San Diego, all in November. In December they went 6-0 against teams rated between 173-301 in KenPom. At Vanderbilt to open league play on Saturday, then play Auburn and Mississippi State the following week, so we’re about to find out a lot more about them. Bracket Matrix first four out.

Might Be Contenders, Might Be On the Bubble

• LSU (10-3, 40 KenPom) – Will Wade’s team has neutral-site losses to Oklahoma State and Florida State in overtime, plus a six-point loss at Houston. They beat Saint Mary’s on December 15. Much like Tennessee, their SEC schedule is extremely back-loaded: they won’t play any of the next tier until February. Third nationally in steals. Bracket Matrix nine seed.

The Contenders

• Mississippi State (12-1, 20 KenPom) – It might have taken Ben Howland one more year than Rick Barnes to get them here, but they’re here: a five-point loss to Arizona State on a neutral floor is the only blemish, but they have six wins over Top 100 teams, including a pair of 11-point wins over Clemson and Cincinnati and a 23-point beat down of BYU last time out. Eighteenth in offensive efficiency, 19th in effective FG%, 21st in offensive rebounding percentage. The Brothers Weatherspoon are doing their thing, and point guard Lamar Peters is 13th nationally in assist rate. Bracket Matrix five seed.
• Florida (8-4, 17 KenPom) – A 21-point loss to Florida State in the opener put them on most people’s back burner. Then they lost close games to Oklahoma, Butler, and Michigan State. But they beat West Virginia by 10, and in a rematch with Butler they won 77-43 (!). KeVaughn Allen is still around, and the Gators are sixth nationally in KenPom defense. We’re in Gainesville on January 12. Bracket Matrix ten seed, but 31.4% of brackets haven’t updated since that beat down of Butler.
• Kentucky (10-2, 13 KenPom) – Got run over by Duke in the opener, and lost to Seton Hall in overtime. Throw in Quade Green’s transfer, and plenty were hitting the panic button. But the Cats beat North Carolina and won at Louisville by 13. Stanford transfer Reid Travis gives them an unusual veteran presence, and PJ Washington is back too. Freshman Keldon Johnson is shooting 43.2% from the arc. Bracket Matrix five seed.
• Auburn (11-2, 12 KenPom) – Bruce Pearl’s team is first in the nation in forcing turnovers, first in shot-blocking, and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. This is now a veteran team, and a healthy one at that: Austin Wiley, Jared Harper, Bryce Brown, Chuma Okeke, and Anfernee McLemore all play their roles well. There’s a six-point loss to Duke and a seven-point loss to NC State, but Pearl still knows how to schedule: wins over Washington, Xavier, Arizona, Dayton, UAB, and Murray State. These guys are plenty tested and plenty good. We’ll only see them once, on the last day of the regular season. Bracket Matrix three seed.
• Tennessee (11-1, 11 KenPom) – Where do the Vols stand out, other than an overtime loss to Kansas and a win over then-#1 Gonzaga? Tennessee is sixth in KenPom offense and first in the nation in fewest shots blocked. The Vols are good at some of the same stuff from last year – second nationally in assist rate, same cast of characters – but are much improved inside the arc, now 13th nationally in two-point field goal percentage. Lamonte Turner’s health remains a question. The Vols play Florida twice (Jan. 12 and Feb. 9), but don’t face any of the rest of this tier or LSU until February 16. The top No. 2 seed in the Bracket Matrix.

With apologies to our friends from Cookeville, I’m not sure how much is left to learn about the Vols entering conference play. Tomorrow, Tennessee hosts Tennessee Tech: 330th in KenPom, where the Vols are projected to win by 30. From there, we begin at last season’s end: Georgia comes to Knoxville next Saturday to open SEC play.

There’s plenty of consternation about the #3 Vols not being #2 this week, but the Vols already cleared the biggest hurdle to getting to #1 by beating Gonzaga. The rigors of conference play offer plenty of opportunities for Duke, Michigan, and Virginia to stumble, which would not have been the case for the Zags.

Tennessee’s rigors are extraordinarily back-ended this season. Right now there are six SEC teams in the KenPom Top 50, led by the Vols at #11. Tennessee plays Florida (KenPom #27) on January 12 and February 9. Every other match-up with the top of the SEC is in the last seven games:

• 2/16 at Kentucky (KenPom #15)
• 2/19 vs Vanderbilt (#62)
• 2/23 at LSU (#41)
• 2/27 at Ole Miss (#54)
• 3/02 vs Kentucky (#15)
• 3/05 vs Mississippi State (#23)
• 3/09 at Auburn (#13)

If form holds, a significant chunk of the argument for or against Tennessee will be made down the stretch. Before then, and before the grind of league play begins, here are two ways the Vols can improve:

Create Turnovers

Last year defense was Tennessee’s calling card: sixth in KenPom defensive efficiency and 14th in effective FG% allowed. The offense was good – 36th in KenPom – but the Vols were winning with defense.

This year, the script has flipped: Tennessee is eighth nationally in offense, a number I’m not sure many of us thought the Vols could get to. Meanwhile the defense is good – 31st in KenPom – but hasn’t been Tennessee’s ace card.

Some of the numbers are down, but not alarmingly so: the Vols are still 38th in effective FG% allowed, 63rd in three-point percentage allowed, and continue to excel at shot blocking (38th). The biggest difference so far this year? Last year Tennessee created a turnover on 20.4% of opponent possessions, 53rd nationally. This year? Just 17.9% of opponent possessions, 238th nationally.

The Vols averaged 14.9 turnovers forced in the first seven games, including 16 from Kansas. But in the last four games, the Vols forced only 40 turnovers, including a possession-heavy affair with Memphis.

This leads us to…

Lamonte Turner gets healthy (or the Vols grow playing small ball without him)

I’m still not exactly sure what this means:

Rick Barnes says Lamonte Turner isn’t expected to play tomorrow against Tennessee Tech. No update. Says his return is still up to him.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) December 28, 2018

Turner, last season’s SEC Sixth Man of the Year, is definitely a component of Tennessee’s best basketball. He’s best known for the big-shot quality that helped the Vols beat Purdue and Kentucky last season; Tennessee clearly has that in Admiral Schofield and the reigning SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams, but Turner provided it in Tennessee’s back court.

But something we may have underestimated about not only Turner, but the graduation of James Daniel: Tennessee can’t pressure opposing guards with the same efficiency right now.

Some of it is just math: the Vols are playing a glorified seven-man rotation right now, getting 32+ minutes from Bone, Schofield, and Williams. Bone only played 23 minutes last year, Schofield and Williams 28. Throw in recurring issues with foul trouble, and your defense has to be a little more tentative (and the offense has been good enough to make up the difference).

But without Turner, the Vols are leaning heavily on Bone and Jordan Bowden in the traditional guard role. Yves Pons is clearly a disruptor, but trails only John Fulkerson in fouls per 40 minutes. The longer Turner is out, the more important Jalen Johnson becomes. He didn’t play at all in Brooklyn when Turner briefly returned, but since then he’s averaged nine minutes per game.

Remember, Tennessee’s most frequent lineup at the end of last season put Bone, Bowden, and Turner on the floor together with Schofield and Williams. We’re all glad to see Kyle Alexander carrying a heavier load this year, but the Vols really haven’t put anything resembling that three-guard small-ball lineup on the floor (Bone, Bowden, Johnson plus two forwards and no Alexander).

Again: Tennessee is ranked third, beat Gonzaga and went to overtime with Kansas on neutral floors. We’re plenty capable. But there’s still room to grow on the defensive end, with or without Lamonte Turner’s return.

Scoreboard.

In a year when the Vols weren’t ranked third and didn’t just beat number one, this would still be a weekend for celebration. In this year, reflecting on the return of the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry is a joy on multiple levels.

The Vols and Tigers met annually from 1988-89 through 2001-02. Only six of those games featured a ranked Tennessee or Memphis squad: three for each side, and never in the same year. One of those came in December 1992, when #8 Memphis led by Penny Hardaway came to Knoxville and lost 70-59 to Allan Houston’s Vols. 

Memphis won the next three, then Kevin O’Neill and Jerry Green put together a five-game winning streak. Buzz Peterson’s first team lost by two to John Calipari’s first team, and then Calipari helped keep the rivalry paused.

It made me smile to read The Athletic’s oral history of the 2008 1 vs 2 Vols/Tigers clash:

“We went to their practice and Calipari expressed how much he did not like Tennessee in so many words. He was like, This is not a game. This is a war.”

Doc Evans, brother of Tyreke Evans

When it stopped, Buzz Peterson was trying to reload from Jerry Green’s four straight NCAA Tournament runs. Calipari was trying to rebuild his own image after sanctions at UMass and a failed three-year stint with the New Jersey Nets. Memphis hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament in six years.

One part recruiting, one part football, one part Calipari – who would later champion playing anyone, anywhere, anytime, but clearly never wanted Tennessee home-and-home. By the time it returned in January 2006, Bruce Pearl was at Tennessee and Memphis was ranked fourth under Calipari. Pearl was a couple weeks away from the win over Florida that truly sparked that first-year run, and Memphis won at home 88-79 with Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table late in the game. But by the time it rolled back around the following year, the Vols were ready, and Chris Lofton put on what remains the single best individual performance from a Tennessee player in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

From there we got 1 vs 2, the first of three straight road wins in the series. Calipari went to Kentucky, then the Tigers went 3-0 against Cuonzo Martin the first two years, including a double overtime classic in Maui.

And then it was gone again. But now it’s back, for at least the next three years.

Calipari’s argument was, in part, that Tennessee benefited from playing Memphis far more than Memphis from playing Tennessee. If that was ever true while the two teams were playing, it was only in Pearl’s first year. The Vols were the Tigers’ equal on the floor afterward, and when Calipari left and Memphis bounced from a depleted Conference USA to the American? Now the opportunity has shifted hard to the Tigers.

Under Rick Barnes the Vols recruit nationally and successfully. Under Penny Hardaway, the spark is back on the banks of the Mississippi in ways Josh Pastner could never duplicate and Tubby Smith threatened to extinguish entirely. The Tigers haven’t made the NCAA or NIT since 2014. But Hardaway is doing work on the recruiting trail, including 7’0″ Memphis East five-star James Wiseman. 

Maybe my favorite part: while Pearl’s Tennessee teams quickly became the equal to Calipari’s Memphis teams, Barnes’ Tennessee teams have done the same with Calipari’s at Kentucky. Rick Barnes is 4-3 against the Cats at UT: his Vols are undefeated against Kentucky in Knoxville, beat the Cats in Rupp last season, won the SEC title and are currently ranked #3 to Kentucky’s #19. 

I’m grateful for Calipari the way Memphis fans should be grateful for Pearl: those two personalities gave that rivalry that little extra something. But this new chapter is exciting as well, with Barnes proving the Vols can be a stable force on the national scene, and Hardaway putting the Tigers back on the path to joining them. Fighting and blaming aside (on both sides), Tennessee and Memphis should play each other every year, no matter who thinks who gets the greater benefit. Both programs should be good enough to sustain it, and the rivalry deserves it.

This time around? Memphis is 5-4 and 118th in KenPom, but properly tested against the tier above them. Their best win is your choice of Yale in 2OT (99th KenPom) or South Dakota State (77th). But they also have a nine-point losses to LSU and an 11-point loss to #11 Texas Tech, who they led by nine at halftime before getting blown out in the second half.

The Tigers live by forcing turnovers (25th in turnover percentage) and getting offensive rebounds (33rd). 5’9″ freshman Tyler Harris is getting some early hype, knocking down 39.5% from three. But Hardaway is also getting the most out of his upperclassmen: 6’8″ senior Kyvon Davenport and 6’6″ senior Raynere Thornton are the forces on the glass, and Memphis can go small and aggressive on defense in a hurry.

The ascension in Knoxville, the hope in Memphis, and the rivalry itself should make for all kinds of fun tomorrow. High noon, ESPN. Welcome back, Memphis. I’m sure we’ll both keep pretending the other side missed it more than we did.

Go Vols.

Let’s rank yesterday even though it’s way too early to do so without the context of the entire season!

There are two clear-cut games at the top of my list. The Sweet 16 win over Ohio State will stand until the Vols make it to the Final Four; bonus points there from the 2007 Sweet 16 loss to the Buckeyes, properly avenged. And 1 vs 2 with Memphis in 2008 is fairly unassailable for the rest of all of our lives: the rivalry, Calipari, an undefeated Memphis and the Vols ascending to number one is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

But after those two, it kind of depends on what you prefer. There’s a separate list of best Kentucky wins – last year at Rupp, Lofton at Rupp, beating them on the last day of the regular season to win the SEC East in Knoxville in 1999 (my personal favorite). There are wins on the way up, like 2006 vs Florida, that carry a “I can’t believe we’re doing this” quality. And that’s really how to best describe the last win over number one, when the Vols beat Kansas in 2010 after four players were suspended or dismissed just ten days earlier. 

Yesterday was not, “I can’t believe we’re doing this.” That felt like an Elite Eight game (or maybe a Final Four game, who knows!). It was two legitimate title contenders trading blows for 40 minutes; the 2008 Memphis game is the only comparison there. If that’s more your style – and hopefully it becomes more our style going forward – then I think you can make a case for that game as high as #3 on your list.

For me personally, I’m going 2010 Ohio State, 2008 Memphis, 1999 Kentucky, then yesterday, followed by 2010 Kansas and 2006 Florida. The rest of the season will determine how high or low it ultimately lands. Either way, it’s in pretty good company.

Perhaps even more impressive: let’s rank Admiral Schofield’s performance

The best individual performance I’ve seen from a Tennessee player is Chris Lofton vs Memphis in December 2006. People forget it because that shot over Durant was 17 days later, but in that game Lofton had 35 on only 8-of-24 shooting (plus 12-of-13 at the line). Against #17 Memphis, Lofton was 12-of-18, 6-of-11 from three, and scored 21 of his 34 points in the first half. It’s the best offensive performance – not just best three-point shooting – against a good team I’ve ever seen at Tennessee.

Yesterday, Schofield had 30 on #1 Gonzaga. He had 25 in the second half, and 11 in the last 3:18, including the game-winner.  

https://twitter.com/SeanFarnham/status/1071973319430176770

There have been some epic performances in school history. The iconic Ernie and Bernie games are both legion and before my time; the media guide highlights Ernie putting 43 on Kentucky in 1976, while Bernie had 40+ five different times. In my lifetime, Allan Houston had 43 in a 119-113 loss to LSU in Shaq’s freshman year. Ron Slay had 38, but the quality of opponent (New Mexico) will keep him a little further down the list. More recently we’ve seen Grant Williams with 37 at Vanderbilt and Kevin Punter with 36 vs #24 South Carolina.  

I think it’s at least safe to say that Schofield’s performance yesterday was the best we’ve seen since Lofton. In the aforementioned Lofton-at-Rupp game in 2006, he had 31 on 7-of-10 from the arc, Tennessee’s first win in Lexington in seven years. I’d still put the Lofton-vs-Memphis performance at number one, and probably Lofton-at-Rupp number two. But Schofield yesterday might be number three in the post-Allan Houston era. He was a volume shooter all day, but the late flurry helped him finish at 12-of-22 and 6-of-10 from the arc. Gonzaga wasn’t known for their defense, but that was still the number one team in the nation. Again, pretty good list to be on. 

Tennessee took 72 shots to Gonzaga’s 59, pulled down 16 offensive rebounds and only turned it over seven times. The Zags countered by getting to the free throw line: 19 attempts to Tennessee’s 10, though either team shooting it better could’ve won today with the Vols at 60% and Gonzaga at 63%. If you were a casual fan just watching two Top 10 teams, you got your money’s worth: Hachimura and Clarke each had 21 for Gonzaga, while Schofield – we’ll get to him in a minute – had 30 and Grant Williams added 16-12-7.

The box score at ESPN lists only six blocked shots in this game – four for the Vols, two for Gonzaga – but it felt like thrice as many. We knew going in these were two of the best shot-blocking teams in the nation, and boy did it live up to it. Brandon Clarke had one of the best blocks I’ve ever seen in my life on Yves Pons; Tennessee has a player like Pons who will try to dunk with no regard for his own life for the first time in forever. But the Vols answered with blocks that would have seemed spectacular had they taken place in any other game, but were just as critical. Two of them belonged to John Fulkerson, who played a bunch as the Vol bigs were saddled with foul trouble in the first half.

The threat of those blocks definitely affected Tennessee, especially after offensive rebounds. Jordan Bone was 2-for-13, Kyle Alexander had only two points, and Schofield took 22 shots.

But he made them count.

Gonzaga led by nine with 6:15 to play. The Vols stayed alive behind Jordan Bowden and Jordan Bone: a Bowden three, a Bone fast break layup, and another Bowden three cut it to three less than 90 seconds later. Grant Williams scored to get it back to three with 3:38 to play. 

Schofield would bury a three to tie it on the next possession, but the story shifted back to Grant Williams, who fouled out with 2:49 to play. Williams missed the overtime against #2 Kansas in Brooklyn, and the Vols failed to get a stop in the extra session without him, ultimately falling to the Jayhawks. 

Not this time.

After Williams fouled out, the Zags sank three free throws. But they went 0-for-4 from the floor. Meanwhile, the Vols went to Schofield:

• Three to tie it at 68 at 3:18
• Jumper to pull within one at 2:19
• Banked three for the lead at 1:20
• NBA three for the lead for good with 24 seconds left

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1071892970083966976

With Gonzaga looking for answers, Jordan Bowden did a fantastic job covering Zach Norvell and denying him the ball. Norvell and Schofield had been jawing for most of the second half (what kind of crazy person talks to Schofield, I have no idea). The Admiral got the last laugh.

Was that the play Tennessee drew up out of the last timeout?

Rick Barnes: Yeah. And when he put the shot up, I thought about all the work he put in over the last four years. How many days I sat at that desk (at Pratt Pavilion) watching him put in work.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) December 9, 2018

THAT’S WHAT WE DO pic.twitter.com/s4U2BLS6LY

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) December 9, 2018

Gonzaga had not scored less than 81 points this year. They left with 73 and a loss today. Tennessee beat the number one team in the nation for the first time since 2010, and you’d be hard pressed to find a win like this in the eight years since. 

A game like this in December is really about March, where last year the Vols won the SEC. But a win like this in December allows us to take a look at the ceiling and nod. Yep, it’ll hold.

Go Vols.

Gonzaga will be the third KenPom Top 50 opponent the Vols have faced in their first eight games. But we’re only scheduled to face three others between mid-December and mid-February. Tennessee’s SEC schedule is back-loaded this year: both dates with Kentucky fall in the last seven games, and the regular season ends with Mississippi State and Auburn. Other than those three conference foes, the only current KenPom Top 50 teams left on the schedule are Florida (January 12 & February 9) and West Virginia (January 26).

If Tennessee is thinking about a one seed and wants to get there via something other than a run at an undefeated season in SEC play, this would be a good win to get. When it’s the team with #1 next to their name on the other side, you typically don’t need additional motivation. But the Vols, having already flirted with #2 Kansas, have earned the right to think about more than just beating the top team for a day.

To do that? Defense better travel.

Gonzaga is number one in KenPom’s offensive ratings. They hung 91 on Arizona, 89 on Duke, and 103 on Creighton. The Bulldogs shoot 38.8% from three and 61.2% from two. The latter is second-best in the country, and the two combine to give Gonzaga the nation’s fourth best effective field goal percentage. They’re also 13th in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.7% of possessions.

The Vols have experience facing such a great offense: last year KenPom’s top two offenses belonged to Villanova and Purdue. For Gonzaga, Rui Hachimura gets top billing here – leading scorer, hit the game-winner against Washington on Wednesday – but KenPom loves what Brandon Clarke, Zach Norvell, and Josh Perkins are doing behind him.

Hachimura is more of a volume scorer and gets to the line. If you want raw efficiency, Brandon Clarke is 62-of-86 (72.1%) on the year, 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 25th in offensive rebounding percentage. Throw in 6’11” Filip Petrusev off the bench, and the Vols will have their hands full on the defensive interior. It’s easy to spend too much time on Hachimura and simply get beat by Clarke instead.

Luckily, the Vols will bring Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander to the party. These match-ups when Gonzaga has the ball should be so much fun to watch. Unlike going against Kansas or North Carolina the last two years, the Vols and Gonzaga are built much more in each other’s image: lineups full of upperclassmen, guys who play well together, and multiple ways to beat you.

If the Vols can work Gonzaga to a draw inside, you still have to defend Norvell and Perkins in the back court. Norvell is the designated three-point shooter, launching 8.7 per game and hitting 38.5%. Perkins is the senior point guard, 33rd nationally in assist rate and also plenty capable from three (38.9% on four attempts per game) and a 90% free throw shooter. There are no weak spots, and those four guys all run 26-32 minutes per game.

The good news: Tennessee is 12th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Vols are capable of defending well enough to win this thing.

Is Gonzaga? They beat Duke in part because R.J. Barrett went 9-of-25 and the Blue Devils didn’t defend well against Gonzaga’s ball screens. They bested Creighton by getting to the line 17 more times than their opponent. And their last-second win over Washington included Gonzaga shooting 19-of-19 at the line.

I expect Tennessee to offer a greater challenge on the defensive end than Washington, Creighton, and Duke-in-Maui (as opposed to Duke-in-March). And the Vols should also be just as capable, if not more so, of attacking on the offensive end. Gonzaga does not force turnovers, 295th nationally. Opportunities should be there for Tennessee to run its offense and take advantage, even if Lamonte Turner is still limited.

Perhaps the biggest question for this game: who wins the shot-blocking/foul-calling battle? Gonzaga is 48th in shot-blocking percentage and 41st in fewest shots blocked. The Vols are 23rd in shot-blocking percentage and fourth in the nation in fewest shots blocked, getting rejected on just 3.8% of attempts. Tennessee is slightly better at shot-blocking, Gonzaga slightly better at getting to the line. But the single best player at getting to the line in this game is still Grant Williams.

This one should be all kinds of fun. Kansas proved we’re at the point where we can take Tennessee quite seriously in beating the number one team in the nation. Let’s go do it.

Sunday, 3:00 PM in Phoenix, where great things involving number one teams have happened to this university before. Put some orange in your Advent wardrobe on Sunday morning.

Go Vols.

 

Through the first six games, we haven’t seen anything from Rick Barnes’ Vols to suggest last year wasn’t the real thing. And despite the pain of an overtime loss to #2 Kansas, there are encouraging signs the Vols are going to be even better.

There’s this, first of all:

Thank you for flying @Airpons. 🛫#SCtop10 @SportsCenter @ESPNAssignDesk pic.twitter.com/zxFPjuQ4GV

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) November 29, 2018

I remember watching his highlights on YouTube against the likes of the Lithuanian under-17 national team, and telling myself not to get too excited. I think it’s okay to get excited now.

Pons has gone from playing five minutes per game to fifteen. The best is yet to come – the Vols don’t need him to peak this season – but it’s exciting to think about what that best could look like.

It’s not just Pons who’s seeing increased minutes. Right now Tennessee is running Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone roughly 32 minutes per game, plus 29 from Jordan Bowden and 28 from Kyle Alexander. Last year no one averaged more than 28.8 minutes per game. For all the early-season chatter about playing a 10-man rotation, the Vols are basically rolling eight deep right now with spot duty from Derrick Walker and Jalen Johnson.

The Vols are still really good at some of the important pieces of the puzzle from last year, including assist rate (68%, fifth nationally). Increased roles for Alexander and Pons show up on both ends of the floor in blocked shots: only 3.8% of Tennessee’s shots get blocked, seventh nationally. And the Vols are sending back 13.8% of the shots they face, 34th nationally. This is a big part of Tennessee’s defense, which continues to be their calling card: 54th nationally in effective FG% allowed, and opponents are shooting just 29.7% from the arc in the early going.

Maybe the best news of all: Tennessee isn’t shooting well from the arc either. And the Vols are still rolling.

31.8% from three is good for 228th nationally. A 9-of-21 performance against Louisiana is the only one to write home about; Jordan Bowden is off to a decent start at 38.1%, but Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner are both shooting a cool 20%.

But so far, the Vols are dramatically better at scoring inside the arc.

It was their biggest weakness last year, shooting just 47.3% from two (278th nationally). This year: 56.7%, 38th nationally. Kyle Alexander was great at the rim last year (67.9%) and is off to a good start this year (64%). But look at the rest of the team:

	2018	2019
Williams	0.497	0.618
Schofield	0.483	0.490
Turner	0.403	0.444
Bowden	0.392	0.500
Bone	0.396	0.526
Pons	0.455	1.000
Fulkerson	0.429	0.636

A healthier Fulkerson and an unleashed Pons are making a difference. Bowden’s numbers are nice to see, though he’s still most valuable to the Vols from behind the arc. But the biggest differences: Jordan Bone is finishing at the rim, and Grant Williams is finishing at the rim the first time instead of living via offensive rebounds. Williams is also starting to get the superstar whistle: he’s 15th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom).

Overall, the Vols are 10th in KenPom and one of just eight squads with a Top 20 offense and defense in those rankings, a metric every national champion other than 2014 UConn has hit since 2002.

This becomes a weekend sport for a minute now: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (314th in KenPom) on Sunday, then the showdown with Gonzaga next Sunday, then a trip to Memphis to renew the rivalry on Saturday, December 15. There’s plenty of time to keep getting better before SEC play, where five teams are in the KenPom Top 30 and seven others are in the Top 80. But so far, any concerns that last year was a nice story the Vols would have a hard time duplicating have been replaced by better basketball, more athleticism, and a higher ceiling.