Author Archives: Will Shelton

Last year, we looked at the rise of the modern era for Tennessee basketball in the NBA. In particular, the Vols aren’t just getting more players into the league, but more opportunities for the spotlight in the playoffs. And that continues this week:

• Josh Richardson and New Orleans are in the play-in round tomorrow night, where they’ll need to beat Oklahoma City and then either the Lakers or Timberwolves to advance to the bracket.
• Grant Williams played a career-high 26 minutes per game for the Celtics in the regular season, with Boston the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference…
• …where Tobias Harris and the Sixers could be waiting in Round 2 as the #3 seed. Harris, now in his 12th season in the league, averaged 15 points per game in the regular season.

There are others in the league, and hopefully more on the way. But these three carry the banner, one from each of our last three tournament coaches. And all three have an opportunity to move up on a select list of former Vols:

Most NBA Playoff Games Played for Former Vols

1. Dale Ellis (73)
2. Allan Houston (63)
3. C.J. Watson (48)
4. Grant Williams (46)
5. Tobias Harris (44)
6. Ernie Grunfeld (42)
7. Tom Boerwinckle (35)
8. Josh Richardson (30)

We noted last year how longevity and individual excellence are no guarantees for success: Bernard King is next on that list with just 28 career playoff appearances. If healthy, both Williams and Harris will pass C.J. Watson in about two weeks. And if the Celtics and Sixers advance – guaranteeing one of them makes the Eastern Conference Finals – they could pass Allan Houston this season.

For Tobias, 40 of his 44 playoff appearances have come in the last four years with Philadelphia. That’s four playoff games (and no wins) in his first eight seasons, before finally landing on a contender. Grant Williams, of course, is the opposite story: 46 playoff appearances in just three years, including 24 last season as Boston ran to the NBA Finals. He had 27 points on seven threes to beat the Bucks in Game 7 last year.

Jordan McRae got a ring with LeBron in Cleveland in 2016. But for regular contributors, Tennessee’s cupboard remains bare. Before Grant Williams last season, Allan Houston came closest in 1999. You also just never know, from the draft to each contract. Tobias Harris has one year left on his deal with Philadelphia. Grant Williams is a restricted free agent as soon as this playoff run ends. Josh Richardson is an unrestricted free agent.

Beyond these three, Kennedy Chandler just got released by Memphis as they shifted their roster for the playoffs. He joined Keon Johnson (Portland) and Admiral Schofield (Orlando) in making 30-40 regular season appearances this year. With the Sixers locked into their playoff seed, Jaden Springer scored 19 points in 34 minutes against Atlanta last week.

The Vols have more quantity than ever before in the league. And the three guys who have carried that torch best since C.J. Watson will have a chance to make some UT history this postseason.

In this chaos bracket, shout out to Miami: the Hurricanes went through the hardest possible path as a five seed, knocking off a 12, 4, 1, and 2 to reach the Final Four. That’s a seed score of 19, far stronger than UConn (29), Florida Atlantic (31), or San Diego State (32). Each of those teams would say, “Who cares!” right about now, and that’s exactly right. And each of those teams took down a top three seed in their region to make it to Houston.

For Tennessee, the lament of, “only a nine seed away from the Elite Eight!” is frustrating for sure, especially as our program seeks its first Final Four. In one sense, every eliminated team is feeling some sense of missed opportunity in this year’s w-i-d-e open tournament. But for Tennessee, I wanted to try to quantify exactly how missed the opportunity was, how “open” Tennessee’s path was compared to other shots we’ve had.

So we went back through each of the brackets going back to the Jerry Green days, and pulled nine of them. We didn’t consider any years when Tennessee lost in the first round, or was blown out in any round. In trying to find our “best” path to the Final Four and compare this year’s opportunity to it, we found a few surprises along the way.

Tennessee’s “Best” Paths to the Final Four

1. 2018: 14 Wright State + 11 Loyola Chicago + 7 Nevada + 9 Kansas State = 41

2. 2006: 15 Winthrop + 7 Wichita State + 11 George Mason + 1 UConn = 34

3. 2000: 13 Louisiana-Lafayette + 5 UConn + 8 North Carolina + 7 Tulsa = 33

4a. 2010: 11 San Diego State + 14 Ohio + 2 Ohio State + 5 Michigan State = 32

4b. 2022: 14 Longwood + 11 Michigan + 2 Villanova + 5 Houston = 32

6a. 2014: 6 UMass + 14 Mercer + 2 Michigan + 8 Kentucky = 30 (plus Dayton)

6b. 2023: 13 Louisiana + 5 Duke + 9 Florida Atlantic + 3 Kansas State = 30

8. 2019: 15 Colgate + 10 Iowa + 3 Purdue + 1 Virginia = 29

9. 2007: 12 Long Beach State + 4 Virginia + 1 Ohio State + 2 Memphis = 19

So, a couple of notes here:

The first opportunity for both Bruce Pearl and Rick Barnes is, so far, the “best” opportunity. 2018 still stands apart here, where the Vols would’ve faced no one seeded higher than seven to get to the Final Four. Of course, you can use that luck both ways, as Kyle Alexander was injured in the Round 1 win over Wright State, just before the Vols were Sister Jeaned in Round 2.

Meanwhile, there’s probably been no house money like 2006: in the tournament for the first time in five years, with the program’s highest seed of all-time. A magical year one for Pearl came to an end in Round 2 against Wichita State. A back-and-forth affair saw the Vols take a five point lead with 5:46 to play. It was tied with two to play, when Wichita hit a jumper and a three on back-to-back possessions, followed by two missed UT free throws. The loss was disappointing, but the future seemed (and was!) bright. This turned out to be the George Mason bracket, who the Vols would’ve played in the Sweet 16.

Both of these teams brought a ton of talent back, which always makes it easier to pivot to next year. And both teams made the Sweet 16 the following season. But the math suggests you never take any of these opportunities for granted. I feel the same way about our lone appearance in the Elite Eight: I wouldn’t rate that Michigan State loss as the most heartbreaking for our program, not by far, because we were so excited just to be there. But in hindsight, it’s still our closest call…and it was really close!

This year’s bracket may be craziest overall, but not necessarily for Tennessee. To make this Final Four, the Vols would’ve still needed to go through a five seed and a three seed. It’s pretty similar to what we saw last season, when Tennessee would’ve had to face a two and a five in the regionals. Both of them felt like missed opportunities, but at least on paper, they’re not as bad as 2018, 2006, or 2000.

Tennessee’s best team also faced the most difficult path. The 2019 Vols, even had they gone through Purdue in the 2/3 Sweet 16 game, would’ve met number one Virginia in the Elite Eight. The Hoos and Boilermakers played a classic in real life, but that Virginia squad is one of the best college basketball teams of at least the last ten years. Sometimes you’re just unlucky in that regard: the Vols had their best season in one of college basketball’s best seasons ever.

…except for 2007. Of note here: in a vacuum, by far the hardest tournament loss we’ve had is 2007 Ohio State. The Vols lost a 20-point halftime lead on the one seed Buckeyes, made 16 threes but missed more than half of their free throws, and lost at the buzzer. It was awful. But for one, that team would’ve had the chalk scenario to get to the Final Four, even though they beat Memphis handily in the regular season. And two, as hard as that loss was, we tend not to think of it that way anymore because the Vols redeemed it. Not just by what the 2008 team did in getting to number one, but the 2010 Vols went through Ohio State to get to the Elite Eight. You never know.

The good news here: other than that 2007 squad, every Tennessee team with a reasonable chance to make the Final Four saw at least one upset in their path. That doesn’t seem to be a trend that’ll change anytime soon. Opportunities are available, and not just this season. Keep giving yourself the best possible chance in climbing the bracket with a great regular season, and then shoot your shot in March. In that regard, the Vols continue to be in good shape, and meaningful opportunities should continue to present themselves.

Go Vols.

I’ve been doing this a long time, which means I’ve been wrong a lot. Tennessee’s continual lineup fluctuations this season made them harder to predict in some ways, but we felt like their rebounding had moved to the forefront in playing taller lineups since Zakai Zeigler went down. The Vols had their three best defensive rebounding performances of the season against power five competition in the previous six games, capped off by holding Duke to a season-low 13% on the offensive glass.

And then last night, Florida Atlantic got 38% of their misses, the second-worst performance for the Vols all season.

Perhaps it was a smattering of four-guard lineups, something we thought Tennessee would do a lot this year but never really materialized due to injury. Some of it was FAU’s unusual size and excellent spacing, putting bodies in places we’re not used to seeing them when shots come off.

But it was a crucial element, and on both ends of the floor. A Tennessee team whose primary love language isn’t offense used the glass all season to create second chances. But the Vols couldn’t find excellence there either against the undersized Owls, getting the rebound 35.5% of the time on their own misses. That’s not bad, but when Tennessee shot just 33.3% from the floor, it all added up to not quite enough.

Sometimes the worst losses are the “we should’ve had it” defeats, and this one – both for Tennessee’s lead for the first 28 minutes, and Florida Atlantic’s overall seed – stings on both fronts. Credit the Owls for their run between the under 12 and the under 8, burying threes and putting enough cushion between them and us in that short span that our offense couldn’t overcome from there. And sure, FAU is definitely better than your average nine seed, just the same as Loyola Chicago was definitely better than your average 11 seed. Our brains and this sport just aren’t necessarily wired to feel it that way.

Tennessee has made the Sweet 16 seven times now in the 64-team format, all since 2000. It stings to be 1-6 in those games, a ceiling the program will continue to face until they break through to the next one. The history major in me always enjoys questions like, “How would we rate those losses?”, but the answer is in part, “they all hurt!”.

• 2000: Lost a seven-point lead with 4:30 to play on eight-seed North Carolina, with a six or seven seed waiting in the Elite Eight.
• 2007: Lost a 20-point halftime lead on #1 Ohio State and were blocked away at the buzzer. Shot 16-of-31 from three but 8-of-17 at the free throw line.
• 2008: Our best team in program history, at least at the time, was outmatched from the start against Louisville in a 2/3 game, a 16-point loss.
• 2014: An iffy charge call on Jarnell Stokes
• 2019: Ryan Cline

What’s the two-sentence version of last night? Fluctuating lineups due to injury lead to an unusual rebounding disadvantage, nine-seed FAU makes one run we can’t overcome?

When we remember this team, I do think the lineups and injuries are in that initial paragraph. It was for Rick Barnes and his seniors in the postgame last night. The last two games will most closely mirror that 2000 tournament. It had the advantage of being Tennessee’s first trip to the Sweet 16, giving some percentage of house money for sure. It also might be our most “we should’ve had it!” of these losses, giving some percentage of the largest heartbreak.

Without question, that team’s second round win over UConn and this team’s second round win over Duke are 2A and 2B in postseason wins in Tennessee basketball history. That should, and I think will, stand the test of time. Until you win it all in this thing, your best win is always going to be tied to your next loss. There was more house money 23 years ago, but that team was also closer to the finish line before giving up the big run. They all hurt. They’re all supposed to.

There are lots of fun things to remember about this bunch, who got to number one in KenPom and beat number one Alabama. The Duke win will live on far beyond them, in ways I think their overall story with injuries will help. And they continued the good work that is Tennessee Basketball: being in the fight, finishing the regular season with a top four seed and a chance to advance, then doing just that against Duke.

I have no doubt the Vols will break through at some point, and I deeply hope it’s under Rick Barnes and his staff. The last two tournaments have shown us how, no matter how well you’re playing on the way in or how disjointed, everyone has a chance to advance in this thing. I’m so grateful for Tennessee taking advantage of that opportunity to get to the Sweet 16 this year, and it hurts that it didn’t extend to the Elite Eight with a real opportunity to do so.

This is the good work of Tennessee’s entire athletic department: give yourself a chance to win the title. If you only celebrate the breakthroughs, you miss most of the fun. And if you don’t hurt at the end, you miss most of the investment.

This program continues to give us a chance to do something special. We were close to something more, and that will always hurt. But looking back on the whole, I think we’ll find much to be proud of. And I’m grateful to Barnes and this team that this, too, is the norm.

Go Vols.

In basically six full games without Zakai Zeigler, the Vols still rate among the nation’s best teams. Bart Torvik has Tennessee ranked 13th since February 28; down from their full-season rank of fifth, but still plenty good enough to win. You’ll note that Duke is/was the fourth-best team in the nation in these last three weeks.

There are some things Tennessee clearly misses. Zeigler is still 35th nationally in steal rate; the Vols have five steals or less against in half of our games without him now. Our two lowest turnover-producing games of the season are Ole Miss (five) and Auburn (six). It felt like Duke had a ton, but they (and Louisiana) finished with just 14, an average number for the Vol defense over the entire season.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s three-point shooting is up, from 32.4% to 36.3% in the last six games. It’s not a huge jump, but it’s a nice one. In addition to the Olivier Nkamhoua boost against Duke, some of this may be a higher percentage of attempts going to Santiago Vescovi. He averages 7.4 threes per game on the year, but 8.6 per game in the last six (minus Louisiana, where he sat with foul trouble). Vescovi is Tennessee’s best shooter at 37.1% from the arc.

And there are a couple of ways Tennessee is simply different without a 5’9″ player on the floor. Our offensive rebounding has been a key all season, with the Vols 15-1 when grabbing 39+% of their misses. Rick Barnes shared after the Louisiana game that Tennessee has actually been crashing the offensive glass less without Zeigler, because they trusted him so much to play transition defense but are now dropping two guys back. And the numbers follow suit:

Offensive Rebounding Percentage, Last Six Games

• Season Average: 36.4%
• Arkansas: 32.1%
• Auburn: 27.6%
• Ole Miss: 36.4%
• Missouri: 29%
• Louisiana: 22.7%
• Duke: 31.3%

Remove the Rebels, and all of Tennessee’s other opponents without Zeigler are NCAA Tournament teams. Against those five, the Vols have failed to grab a third of their offensive rebounds each time.

But on the defensive glass? Tennessee is attacking.

Our season average in defensive rebounding percentage is 73.4%, 91st nationally.

Defensive Rebounding Percentage, Last Six Games

• Season Average: 73.4%
• Arkansas: 80%
• Auburn: 75.9%
• Ole Miss: 87.5%
• Missouri: 88%
• Louisiana: 78.6%
• Duke: 87%

Duke was/is the 10th best offensive rebounding team in the nation, averaging 35.9% per game. Against Tennessee, they got a season-low 13%. Virginia (15.4%) is the only other team to hold them below 20% this season.

Basically, the Vols are playing Santiago Vescovi until he drops, and he doesn’t drop. And then we’re rotating eight other dudes who are all physical (not that Vescovi isn’t!) and are all attacking the glass defensively. Vescovi played 38 minutes against Duke; everyone else played less than 30 but more than 10. It’s a bunch of fresh bodies coming at you all the time, and all of them are big and/or long, and all of them rebound with a passion.

This, of course, brings us to the officiating component.

The most reliable predictor of Tennessee’s success remains defense: the Vols are now 22-0 when holding opponents under 60, and 3-10 when they don’t. But one of the surest ways Tennessee holds opponents under 60 with such a great defense is to keep them off the free throw line. Those numbers one more time:

• 23-3 when committing less than 20 fouls
• 19-3 when opponents attempt less than 20 free throws
• 21-3 when opponents make less than 15 free throws
• Every one of these losses is Missouri (x2) or Vanderbilt, the only teams to hit 10+ threes on UT

Arkansas and Auburn both crossed the free throw thresholds in the first two games without Zeigler. Since then, though:

• Ole Miss: 8-of-12 on 10 UT fouls
• Missouri: 9-of-13 on 16 UT fouls
• Louisiana: 5-of-9 on 14 UT fouls
• Duke: 4-of-7 on 11 UT fouls

All four of those opponents were also whistled for less than 20 fouls themselves. Tennessee’s offense had the lowest free throw rate in the SEC this season; it’s not that the Vols are getting all the calls and these poor opponents aren’t.

Meeting the media today, I thought FAU’s coach Dusty May gave two enlightening responses:

FAU HC Dusty May was asked about his "Australian Rugby" reference to @Vol_Hoops

Said he feels bad. He mixed rugby and Australian Rules Football. Most physical sport without pads.

He hadn't seen the Duke game just heard about the narrative on Twitter.

Meant it as a compliment. pic.twitter.com/osidYFqCLD

— 99.1 THE Sports Animal (@SportsAnimal991) March 22, 2023

"How well they keep the ball out of the paint (defensively.) They play with such intensity and physicality. They play every play like it's their last possession."

FAU head coach Dusty May on @Vol_Hoops #MarchMadness #NewYork pic.twitter.com/VyXkFSKwLQ

— 99.1 THE Sports Animal (@SportsAnimal991) March 22, 2023

Which is to say:

• “I don’t really know what happened, I just read about it on Twitter,” is both refreshingly honest and depressing.
• “They play every possession like it’s their last,” is a truly great compliment.

The Vols are going to hit the boards without Zeigler. But they’ve been this kind of elite defense all season. And if they can once again do so without fouling, you’re going to need a bunch of threes to beat it.

Go Vols.

These are the days you enjoy the most, because later this week it’s gonna get stressful again.

That’s the beauty of the beast, especially in a world where 16 seeds can win and 15 seeds are in the Sweet 16 again. The tournament only allows enough time to celebrate the second win of a weekend, which is amazing for us right now. If the Vols win on Thursday night, you’ve got 48 hours to get ready for the biggest game of our lives. And if/when the Vols lose, it’s over.

That’s the season, and not the memories, of course. The Duke win gets to live forever, and it feels mighty fine on this Monday morning. But the bracket has broken differently than our previous trip to the Elite Eight. In 2010, the biggest fish was in the Sweet 16, two-seed Ohio State. This time around, the Vols are the bigger fish, having just pulled Duke out of the water. The cumulative challenge would ultimately be the same to reach the Elite Eight:

• 2010: 11 San Diego State + 14 Ohio + 2 Ohio State = 27
• 2023: 13 Louisiana + 5 Duke + 9 Florida Atlantic = 27

But this time, the Vols are the higher seed. In our seventh Sweet 16 since 2000, the Vols are the higher seed for the fourth time. Two of those other occasions were the 2/3 match-up, the same virtual toss-up as the 4/5 game we just played.

The closest comparison here is that first one in 2000, and very much so. Tennessee as a four seed beat Louisiana-Lafayette in the first round by five points. Next came UConn in the 4/5 game, a national power and the defending champions. And Tennessee’s defense smothered Khalid El-Amin, as the Vols took a 10-point lead at halftime and never looked back. Tennessee won 65-51, a single point off of Saturday’s performance against Duke. Those Vols saw Tony Harris, Vincent Yarbrough, and C.J. Black all score in double figures, plus eight off the bench from freshman Ron Slay. After that Ohio State Sweet 16 win in 2010, Tennessee’s next-best NCAA Tournament win is either that UConn game, or Saturday against Duke.

And that bracket also broke wide open, with eight seed North Carolina taking down Stanford in round two. The six and sevens also won, with Miami and a Tulsa squad coached by a young Bill Self joining the Vols and Tar Heels in the regional semifinals. Though a four seed, Tennessee was the highest seeded team left standing after the first two rounds in the Southeast region.

The biggest difference, of course, is that was our first Sweet 16 of the 64-team format. And it’s a cautionary tale, even 23 years later: breaking new ground almost always guarantees a percentage of house money from that point on. That’s still how I feel about the loss to Michigan State in the Elite Eight in 2010.

But in 2000, Tennessee led North Carolina by seven with 4:30 to play. And it’s those losses that end up hurting most; UNC closed the game on a 17-5 run, and just like that it was over.

So yes: we can absolutely still get hurt in this thing. That’s because we’re still playing.

We’ll get to Florida Atlantic later this week. But for now, consider the value of still playing.

Only 17 programs have made multiple Sweet 16s in the last four NCAA Tournaments. And only five have made more than two.

Sweet 16 Appearances, 2019-2023

• 4: Gonzaga, Houston
• 3: Arkansas, Michigan, UCLA
• 2: Alabama, Creighton, Duke, Florida State, Miami, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oregon, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Villanova

When you really get things rolling, it can feel like “make the Sweet 16 every year” is a reasonable goal. But that’s typically only Gonzaga territory: the Bulldogs have now made an insane eight Sweet 16s in a row. That’s one off the record of nine, held by both Duke and Carolina. And it’s helpful to be a one seed, which Gonzaga earned four times in these last eight tournaments.

Houston, meanwhile, hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since their Final Four appearance in 1984 before this current run started in 2019. They’ve had a more difficult path coming in, with seeds of three, two, five, and now one in these last four tournaments. They also took advantage of brackets breaking open in 2019 (beating #14 and #11) and 2021 (beating four double-digit seeds to make the Final Four).

But even after those two, the Vols find themselves in very good company here. When Rick Barnes became one of the highest-paid coaches in college basketball after the 2019 season, we looked at what reasonable expectations might be at that salary. Programs in that range make the NCAA Tournament 90% of the time, make the Sweet 16 slightly more often than not, and carry the expectation of an eventual breakthrough to the Final Four. So far, Tennessee is checking those boxes, and has a great opportunity to break new ground this weekend.

It will not be easy. Nothing for this team has been, and it’s much the same for most of college basketball this season.

But the Vols are thriving in the hard. And that’s good news as the stakes continue to rise.

Go Vols.

Yes sir.

We’re no stranger to big wins these days; this team has three over one and two seeds this year alone. Rick Barnes and company have erased the ghosts of Rupp Arena, beat great Kentucky teams in Knoxville and Nashville, and took down top-ranked foes multiple times. In our most recent meetings, the Vols beat North Carolina by 17 and Kansas by 14.

Add Duke by 13 to the list. And give Barnes’ Vols a signature March moment, one of the greatest NCAA Tournament wins in school history.

In our first meeting with Duke since 2011 and only the second since 1980, we knew the post would be big. Uros Plavsic was tagged with two fouls almost immediately, and Olivier Nkahmoua exited early with four points as well. Duke pulled ahead 19-13 with eight minutes to play in the first half.

They scored two points the rest of the half.

Meanwhile, the Vols went to Durham, North Carolina’s Jonas Aidoooooooo:

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637172274565627904

In that same eight minute stretch, Aidoo had six points. On the day, he added five rebounds and three blocks. A sensational finish put the Vols up six at the break.

Speaking of Finnish…

TENNESSEE WITH A SMOOTH AND-1 #MarchMadness @Vol_Hoops pic.twitter.com/DnZwejKUNu

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 18, 2023

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637192146494136322

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637194061785231362

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637194763018305536

What’s the best individual performance you’ve ever seen from a Tennessee player in the NCAA Tournament?

The answers in these moments can surprise you. Perhaps it’s the nature of high-level basketball, a counter on a counter on a counter when you’re several moves deep on the chessboard. Grant Williams had the defining performance in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. Sometimes it’s those dudes.

At Tennessee? Melvin Goins came off the bench with 15 points on 4-of-5 threes, including a late dagger, against San Diego State in 2010. Jarnell Stokes put a 26-14 on UMass in the first round in 2014. It doesn’t sound as strange now, but Josh Richardson having 26 against Mercer in the next game was a beautiful surprise.

To me, the answer is Wayne Chism against Ohio State in the Sweet 16 in 2010, with 22 points and 11 rebounds in the program’s first and only win in that round. It is Tennessee’s best tournament win – and maybe thus its best win period – until the program advances further.

Thanks to Nkamhoua and these Vols, opportunity knocks.

Today’s win might not have been as big, simply by virtue of the round. But the individual performance? Twenty-seven points on 10-of-13 shooting, three threes, and five rebounds? Nkamhoua probably isn’t used to being undersized, but Barnes has had great success attacking uber-tall teams from Gonzaga, Kentucky, and today Duke with “undersized” fours. And no attack was ever better.

Or more consistent, and not just Nkamhoua:

• Duke cut the lead to 33-31 with 15:42 to play. Nkamhoua completed a three-point play to put the Vols back up five.
• Santiago Vescovi hit back-to-back threes around the 12:00 mark to keep the Vols ahead by three possessions.
• Kyle Filipowski cut it to 46-42 with 9:16 to go. Next two possessions: Nkamhoua jumper, Nkamhoua three.
• Tyrese Proctor cut it to 51-46 with 7:08 to go. Next two possessions: Nkamhoua jumper, Nkamhoua dunk.

And then, a defining image at the last:

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637197604063772672

It is Tennessee’s best tournament win in at least 13 years, and maybe its second-best ever. The next one would send Tennessee to the Elite Eight for the second time, the furthest we’ve ever been. We’ll have plenty of time to get to Florida Atlantic or Fairleigh Dickenson.

But today, the Vols trailed 19-13 with eight minutes to play in the first half, then outscored the Duke Blue Devils 52-33 the rest of the way home.

What a day. What a win. Much to be thankful for. Much to come.

Go Vols.

So maybe Tennessee and Duke will meet right away next year in the inaugural SEC/ACC Challenge. As your profile rises, more teams are willing to say yes. Consider this: the Vols and Kansas never met before 2009. And now we’ve seen the Jayhawks seven times in the last 15 seasons, and four of the last five. Tennessee and North Carolina, separated by a little more than five beautiful hours in the car, didn’t play for 50 years between 1949-1999. And now we’ve seen the Tar Heels six times in the 2000s, including three under Rick Barnes.

Duke, of course, is right down the road. And since 1980 – that’s basically my lifetime and probably many of yours – we’ve played once, in Maui, in Cuonzo Martin’s first season.

And now, tomorrow.

We got to tomorrow through the haze of last night, a series of not-ideal events that still led to the one and only outcome that matters in this thing. Without Zakai Zeigler, we knew Santiago Vescovi would carry the heaviest load, and that he was the least foul-prone player on the floor. About that: he picked up two fouls in less than eight minutes, sitting the last 12:30 of the first half. Tennessee still extended their lead during that stretch, but Louisiana stayed on top of Vescovi in the second half.

Vescovi ended up playing just 27 minutes, the fewest he’s seen in a game the Vols didn’t win by 25+ since February 12 of last season. Three points is the fewest he’s scored since January 29 of last season.

But Tennessee hit their most important benchmarks on the defensive side of the ball, which remains far and away the most important piece of their puzzle. The Vols moved to 21-0 when holding their opponent under 60 points, and did it without fouling: just 14 whistles, just 5-of-9 at the line for the Rajun Cajuns. When Tennessee defends without fouling, so far this year you have to hit 10 threes to beat them.

Tennessee’s best offensive benchmark is getting second chances. But Louisiana did their part there, limiting the Vols to just six offensive rebounds, 23% of our misses. On that, Zakai Zeigler’s absence is being felt after all – here’s Barnes in the postgame:

But the last couple games without Zakai, we didn’t have very good floor balance because these guys are used to going to the glass, all of them, with the exception of Zakai. So tonight to make sure we didn’t give any run outs, we said we’re going to send two back just to make sure we had that covered.

Tennessee saw an 18-point lead diminished to three, but never gave Louisiana the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. The Vols got big buckets from Jonas Aidoo and Jahmai Mashack to stop the bleeding at the under eight, then made just enough free throws to stay in front late.

As a result, the Vols are through to the second round. And it’s Duke next.

The Blue Devils may not have Coach K, but they do have ten wins in a row. And they have plenty of size to try to keep the Vols off the offensive glass, should they so desire.

But Tennessee against marquee opponents this season? The Vols scored three wins against one and two seeds, beating Alabama by nine, Texas by 11, and Kansas by 14.

Think about it this way: Tennessee’s best NCAA Tournament win of all-time is the Sweet 16 classic with Ohio State in 2010, taking down a two seed en route to the program’s first and only Elite Eight.

What’s our second best win in the tournament?

I’d go with UConn in the 2000 second round, another 4/5 game that saw the Vols dethrone the defending champs and make their first Sweet 16 of the 64-team tournament. But if you’re too young for that one, what’s next? After the Buckeyes, four seed Virginia is the highest-seeded team the Vols have ever beaten in March, back in another 4/5 game in 2007.

The seed and the opponent make a few things really clear: the Vols will need to play well.

And if they do, they’ll have a chance to earn one of our most meaningful NCAA Tournament wins in school history.