Author Archives: Will Shelton

How Far Up The Ladder?

Heading into the 2012 season, whatever optimism we could muster included an assumption about Tennessee’s program against the middle tier of its schedule: not just that the Vols would restore order against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but that Tennessee would take care of business against NC State and Mississippi State, because that’s what Tennessee should do.

Missouri joined the SEC that year, 8-5 the year before, champions of the Big 12 North the year before that, and not too far removed from flirting with the national title in 2007. But the Tigers were still part of that assumption: we’ll beat Missouri, because that’s what Tennessee should do.

Fans were out on Derek Dooley by the time we got to the Tigers, in part because he failed to beat Mississippi State along with a host of ranked foes. It took some of the air out of a thrilling four-overtime affair, won by the Tigers after the Vols blew a 28-14 third quarter lead. Missouri – like Arkansas, South Carolina, and Texas A&M – beat the Vols and our assumptions in our first meeting as conference rivals.

The Tigers ascended to the East title the following two seasons as Butch Jones started brick-by-bricking; Tennessee got Missouri in a hard-fought defensive slugfest in 2015 and the polar opposite of that game in 2016. But the last two years, Missouri dismantled Tennessee by identical 50-17 scores. The first was Butch Jones’ final game, but last year was far more costly: the Tigers knocked Jarrett Guarantano out of the game after two passes, then knocked the momentum out of Tennessee’s season.

Seven years and two coaches later, those assumption are gone. But it’s important that they start making their way back. And the only way to do that is for Tennessee to beat South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt on a regular basis.

Since the Tigers came into the league, the Vols have gone 4-0 against the second tier of the SEC East just once, in 2015. Consider the way this used to work:

  • 38-1 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 1992-2004, which means the Vols won 38 in a row after losing at South Carolina in 1992.
  • 15-6 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 2005-2011. Steve Spurrier’s arrival instantly changed the South Carolina game; the Vols were also beaten by an NFL quarterback in 2005 and a WR quarterback in 2011.
  • 15-17 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt from 2012-2019, including 2-0 so far this season.

Not only is 2015 Tennessee’s only sweep since Missouri joined the league, 2014 is the only time the Vols went 3-1 against this tier. To be sure, there were some really good South Carolina and Missouri teams in the first half of this decade. But the fact that Tennessee has a losing record against what used to be the tier of assumption proves the Vols have belonged in it.

The belief that Tennessee has to start beating these four teams regularly before it can worry about Florida, Georgia, and Alabama isn’t a casualty of Georgia State. The last time it looked like Tennessee separated themselves, it was this tier – South Carolina and Vanderbilt – that cost the Vols the most in 2016.

We’re not going back to 38-1. South Carolina was bowl eligible once in the 90’s; they’ve gone 14 times since 2000. Missouri came in on similar footing to Arkansas and already won the division twice. And Mark Stoops has elevated Kentucky to the point that a 6-6 finish this year might be a legitimate disappointment.

But the ice is getting thin everywhere outside of Lexington. Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt could all be breaking in a new coach next season. The timing is right for separation.

Let’s be clear: the Vols are underdogs tomorrow night. Tennessee has covered the spread five weeks in a row, and if they make it six it’ll be the first time since at least 1990. If the Vols fall to the Tigers in a close game and beat Vanderbilt, it’ll still be a job well done since October. But if we’re looking for separation language in the summer months, this is the win to get. Redemption can still be discussed at 6-6. Win tomorrow night and take care of Vanderbilt, and the conversation is resurrection. And we can go back to thinking about living dangerously in the upper tier of the SEC East; back to believing that’s where Tennessee belongs.

Early Efficiency From Three

Two seasons ago Lamonte Turner splashed 39.5% of his three-point attempts, and went 38-of-84 (45.2%) in conference play, the second-best mark in the league that season (stats via KenPom). It was part of a remarkable shooting run from the 2017-18 Vols, with Admiral Schofield (39.5%), Jordan Bowden (39.5%), and Jordan Bone (38%) pushing Tennessee to shoot 38% from the arc as a team; that’s the best number the Vols put up since Bruce Pearl’s first team hit 38.8% behind 43.7% from Chris Lofton and 42.2% from C.J. Watson.

Last year Turner struggled to get his shoulder right, finishing at 32% from the arc (but still the maker of big shots). The Vols still hit 36.7% as a team, thanks in large part to Schofield’s 42.2%.

So far this season, Turner has been amazing as the point guard: 28 assists in three games, including 14 without a turnover against Murray State, helping the Vols get an assist on 67.8% of their buckets, currently ninth nationally in assist percentage. And Turner played 39 minutes against the Racers and the Huskies, plus 36 in the blowout of UNC Asheville.

The only blemish: a slow start from the arc at 3-of-16. And yet, the Vols are shooting 46.2% from three in the first three games, the third-best percentage in the nation. Bowden is 9-of-14, Yves Pons 5-of-8, Jalen Johnson 3-of-8, Josiah James 2-of-3, Davonte Gaines 1-of-1, and even Zach Kent is in on the action at 1-of-2.

The juxtaposition of Tennessee’s percentage and the number of threes the Vols take is staggering early: third nationally in percentage made, 316th nationally in percentage taken. But it plays into something that happened with Tennessee some last season: even for a good three-point shooting team, too many attempts got the Vols out of their offense and sometimes led to defeat.

Via Sports-Reference, last season the Vols went 4-4 when attempting 24+ threes, and 27-2 when attempting 23 or less. There are a couple of overtimes in those 24+ games that can skew the numbers a tad, but generally Tennessee’s best basketball didn’t include heavy reliance on the three, unless they were going to hit an even more unusually high percentage of them (12-of-29 for 41.4% against #1 Gonzaga).

In Tennessee’s first real test this season against Washington, I wondered if the Vols would go outside more, especially against the Huskies’ interior and facing a zone that can invite deep threes. Bowden and Turner have been around long enough and made enough to get a green light. But instead, the Vols were disciplined and carved up Washington inside the arc, while still splashing 6-of-13 from beyond.

We need more time and more games to see if Yves Pons’ shot is real and if Turner’s shot will come on again. But even without last year’s vets inside, the Vols aren’t falling in love with the three, even if it sure looks like it wants to fall in love with them.

We’ll see if that continues tonight when the #20 Vols take on 0-3 Alabama State (7:00 PM, SEC Network+).

Tennessee 75 Washington 62: We Should’ve Known

The big picture questions of this season revolved around what the Vols could/would do in the paint. Kyle’s gone, Grant’s gone, Admiral’s gone, Uros is ineligible, Pons is playing the four. #20 Washington provided an excellent early test, with three 6’9″ starters, one of them a top five freshman, and plenty of shot blocking.

And Tennessee did the simple things to absolute perfection.

Maybe we’re still a little hesitant to believe the most straightforward answers to those questions could all be real without all that cast from last season. But Tennessee took down Washington’s length by absolutely wearing out its zone defense with the same free throw line jumper it worked so well last season. I thought the Vols needed Williams inside to get those kind of looks. Turns out, at least today, nope: Tennessee shot 47.2% from the floor against what was the #13 defense in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. The Huskies allowed 31.2% from inside the arc in their first two games. Tennessee opened up a 12-point halftime lead behind Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, and Yves Pons knocking down open jumper after open jumper.

It’s only three games, but it feels like it’s time to start assuming good things from Yves Pons. Bowden took 13 shots to tie for Tennessee’s lead…with Pons, who hit seven shots and finished with 15 points. He splashed another three, and he can still do this:

What seemed like a stop-gap measure has turned into an actual strength on both ends of the floor. Pons isn’t just the best available option at the four. He could end up one of the best in the league. Once again, Rick Barnes and company are transforming a player with incredible speed and efficiency.

With Plavsic, I wondered who else the Vols would play beyond a seven-man rotation. Without Plavsic, Tennessee plugged in Olivier Nkamhoua – two blocks of his own – and ran a seven-man rotation just fine. Would something like that work in SEC grind? Not sure. But tonight, Tennessee’s seven jumped Washington 14-5 in the first five minutes. Washington got no closer than five the rest of the way, and no closer than seven in the second half.

The Vols are now 7-7 against ranked foes in the last three seasons. In Bruce Pearl’s six-year tenure, Tennessee went 23-21 against ranked foes. You needed to see one to believe it, perhaps, but Barnes and company will have the Vols back in the Top 25, and back chasing the same expectations now, not later.

And they’re doing all of it without any revelation from five-star Josiah James, free to come along nicely with a 4-of-4 performance from the floor tonight and the J.P. Prince Stat Line of the Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 turnovers, 3 fouls.

The Vols return home to face Alabama State on Wednesday (0-3 and lost to Gonzaga by 31), then host Chattanooga on Monday, November 25. Then it’s off to Destin for the next big test against Florida State and either VCU or Purdue. The way things are going, the Vols might go from scrappy rebuild on the fly to the highest-ranked team in the field.

We’ll worry about that later. For now, this was a big, validating win: old faces, new roles, same result.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Washington Preview

The good news: a bye week isn’t really a bye week when your basketball team is playing a Top 20 opponent. The bad news: because everyone not on a bye is still playing football, all your television channels are spoken for. So we welcome the Vols to ESPN+, which means you can watch this game for $4.99 (per month if you don’t cancel it) or as part of an expanded Disney+ subscription.

A tangent: Tennessee’s football media guide includes a section called “Vols On Television”, a ludicrous premise to anyone under the age of 30. You have to go back to a game between the 4-4 Vols and Memphis in November 1994 to find the last time a Tennessee football game simply wasn’t available to watch. But between 1989 all the way up to the first game of the Butch Jones era, VideoSeat carried 47 Tennessee football games on pay per view; some who lived outside the Volunteer State in the latter part of that run will remember fondly the old ESPN GamePlan package carrying these games. The first one of those PPV games is the most famous: September 9, 1989, when the Vols went to #6 UCLA late on the east coast and rolled to a 24-6 victory, sparking Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. The media guide lists the Vols as 46-1 in those games (thanks, Wyoming); it’s the nature of the beast that they’d be less interesting.

Even the term “pay per view” seems strange now unless you’re a wrestling fan, and it may fade from that vocabulary too over time. The good news for basketball: the Vols aren’t playing Austin Peay, and you’re getting #20 Washington at a much better price.

The Huskies leaped from the also receiving votes pile with a stunning comeback against #16 Baylor in the Armed Forces Classic from Anchorage. Baylor went up 10 with 5:38 to play. They hit a single free throw the rest of the way home.

Tennessee might see each of the three highest-rated freshmen in college basketball this season. We’ll see what happens with James Wiseman at number one. Anthony Edwards – there’s two o’s in Goose – is at Georgia, he’s number two. And number three is Isaiah Stewart, a 6’9″ 245 lbs. forward at UDub. They threw him in the fire right away with 36 minutes against Baylor, and he went 7-of-13 for 15 points and 7 rebounds. Fellow 6’9″ Top 10 freshman Jaden McDaniels played 33 minutes and had 18 points, going 7-of-8 at the line.

The leading scorer was 6’6″ junior Nahziah Carter with 23 points on 4-of-6 from the arc. And you’ll remember Quade Green, who transferred from Kentucky. He scored double figures in each of the 2018 UT/UK games; it’s a different role here, as he had only two points but dished out nine assists for the Huskies in the opener.

Washington was already pulling in elite talent: Markelle Fultz was the top pick in the 2017 draft, and Matisse Thybulle is getting 15 minutes a night as a rookie with the Sixers. But the transition from Lorenzo Romar to Mike Hopkins following a 9-22 finish with both of them on the roster has led to actual wins. Hopkins was an assistant at Syracuse for more than 20 years, the coach-in-waiting for Jim Boeheim who, it seems, got tired of waiting. Washington rebounded to 21-13 and an NIT appearance in Hopkins’ first year, then 27-9 with a Pac-12 title last season. They routed Utah State in an 8/9 game, then got routed by North Carolina.

After finishing 224th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings in 2017, Hopkins has made defense the focus: 73rd in 2018, 18th last season, and 13th in the early stages this year. The big freshmen protect the rim, and they do not tolerate nonsense: McDaniels and 6’9″ junior Hameir Wright each blocked four shots in the opener, then Stewart got five against Mount St. Mary’s. If we don’t get at least one good showdown between Yves Pons and one of these dudes, I’ll be disappointed.

So there are obvious issues for Tennessee in going against a lineup featuring three 6’9″ guys. It’s a thin bench for Washington, so foul trouble becomes an issue both ways. The Vols haven’t done much in the way of getting to the line in the first two games, and are shooting just 60% when they arrive. What Tennessee did do was torch Murray State from the arc at 12-of-22. Getting a high volume of shots from three was sometimes a sign of trouble last season. But without Williams, Schofield, and Alexander, the Vols may lean more toward the three this season. Washington’s excellent rim protection should be a good indicator of how Barnes sees that dilemma.

But what also comes with playing a bunch of freshmen: turnovers. The Huskies survived 20 in the opener, then added 15 including five from McDaniels against Mount St. Mary’s. The Huskies are giving it away on 25.1% of their possessions. That’s opportunity.

Here’s a phrase you don’t really use when you spend a month at number one, but might be applicable some this season: Washington might be a bad match-up for Tennessee. This combination of size and skill is rare, and will be the biggest test for Pons, Fulkerson, and certainly Nkamhoua to date. You won’t see much of the Huskies playing so far away, but they’ll be worth keeping an eye on; the Bracket Matrix has them as a nine seed, but the ceiling is obviously quite high.

This first run of marquee non-conference foes features Tennessee – a seven seed in the Bracket Matrix – going against teams right on their level. Washington is ranked 20th, and all four teams in the Emerald Coast Classic – the Vols, Florida State, VCU, and Purdue – are between 26-32 in also receiving votes. Group them together, and 2-1 would be a job well done. But we’re not used to thinking that way after last season…and there’s no reason to start until losing makes you.

Can the more experienced Vols impose their will, turn Washington over, and shoot well enough from three to get the win in Toronto? The first real answers will come Saturday at 5:00 PM on ESPN+.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Murray State Preview

The Racers – home of one of my favorite college sports logos – are more than the school of Ja Morant. The number two pick in June’s draft is averaging 18.6 points with the Memphis Grizzlies; Murray State went 26-6 and 28-5 in his two seasons, knocking off Marquette in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

Murray State has long been one of the best stepping stones for coaches. This is Matt McMahon’s fifth year; before him it was Steve Prohm (to Iowa State), Billy Kennedy (to Texas A&M), and Mick Cronin (to Cincinnati). It’s a program accustomed to winning, and though Morant is gone, I wouldn’t take them lightly. Guard Tevin Brown led the way with 17 points in their 20-point win over Southern (349th in KenPom) in the opener, on par with Tennessee’s level of competition against UNC Asheville. And 6’10” K.J. Williams had 15 points and 11 rebounds.

Brown was a high-percentage shooter last season; Morant’s play led to lots of open shots for other guys. That was even more true for Williams, who shot 71% inside the arc, eighth nationally in two point field goal percentage. Tennessee’s defense will have an opportunity to frustrate them more than they’re used to.

It was one game, but a couple of things jumped out for the Vols statistically. Tennessee grabbed 17 offensive rebounds – Pons with five, Fulkerson and Nkamhoua with four each – for a 48.6% offensive rebounding percentage. The Vols were a Top 75 team in that category the last two years; just one game, but it was nice to see the undersized Vols continue to get in the mix there.

If you’re bothered by UNC Asheville being remotely competitive with the Vols, consider a small tip of the cap to them for making tough shots. The Bulldogs had 24 made shots but had only four assists, an excellent team defensive effort from the Vols. There will be nights when Tennessee’s individual defensive efforts – staying in front of guys off the dribble, undersized post match-ups – are an issue. But for a team with so many new pieces and changing roles, Tennessee’s team defense was really good against UNC Asheville.

Murray State is an excellent step up on the way to Toronto, where Washington awaits on Saturday (excellent scheduling for a bye week!). The Huskies beat Baylor in the opener and feature Kentucky transfer Quade Green, among others. KenPom likes the Vols to beat the Racers by 13 and calls the Huskies a toss-up. Things will get real in a hurry; Murray State is a great test to see if these Vols are up to speed.

7:00 PM Wait, 9:00 PM? What? On the actual SEC Network. Go Vols.

Tennessee 17 Kentucky 13: We’re Close

It felt like we were due a close game. We got one. Then Tennessee did a bunch of things you can’t do to win close games: almost twice as many penalty yards, dropped a snap on a punt, fumbled in their own territory in the final ten minutes, etc. The Vols felt like they were in control most of the night against BYU and lost. Kentucky, from a 17-play opening drive, felt like they were in control most of the night.

Those 17 plays were the first of 71 for Kentucky. Tennessee ran 46, leaving them at 621 on the year, the fewest for any team that’s played 10 games this season (stats via SportSource Analytics). That part hasn’t changed from last season, when the Vols ran fewer plays than any team in college football.

Beating Kentucky, as it turns out, hasn’t changed either.

The how was much, much different. Kentucky rolled into Knoxville last season ranked 12th, and rolled back up I-75 on the wrong end of a beat down: the Vols averaged 6.86 yards per play and held Kentucky to 3.59, a difference of 3.27 representing the biggest gap between Tennessee and a power five foe since Georgia in 2009.

Different team, different venue, much closer game. But in the end, the Vols are back at the same result: 5-5, two games to play. Last season those five wins came via a pair of ranked upsets, but the year ended with a pair of crushing defeats. This time the five wins have come via Chattanooga and a hot streak: the Vols have now covered the spread five weeks in a row for only the second time since 1998.

That list, via the closing lines at covers.com:

  • 2019: Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky and counting…
  • 2010: Tyler Bray’s emergence in the last five games of the regular season
  • 1998: The first five games (and just missed the first seven, failing to cover against Alabama by a single point; the 98 Vols ultimately went 9-4 against the spread)
  • 1992: The first five games before losing straight up to Arkansas as a 22-point favorite
  • 1990: Possible asterisk here, as covers.com has no line for the 55-7 win over Pacific in week two; otherwise the Vols covered the first five games before the 9-6 debacle against Alabama, still the worst non-2001-LSU loss of my lifetime
  • A wild sequence in the mid-80’s: the Vols covered the last four games of 1985, including the 35-7 win over Miami in the Sugar Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog. Then the Vols failed to cover in the first six weeks of 1986 in a 2-4 start. Then they covered the last five weeks of the regular season and in the bowl against Minnesota in a 5-1 finish. And then they covered the first five weeks of 1987, making it 11 in a row between seasons.

So while beating Kentucky is ordinary, if things overall feel fairly unprecedented, it’s because they kind of are.

A 7-5 finish remains firmly on the table, the preseason Vegas prediction within reach even after losing to Georgia State and BYU. If the Vols get there and win the bowl game – both of ESPN’s projections have the Vols in the Gator Bowl this morning, while Banner Society puts the Vols in Charlotte against UNC but leaves a tantalizing match-up in the realm of possibility by putting Michigan in the Gator Bowl – an 8-5 finish would still be the third-best season since 2007. The kind of marquee win Tennessee earned last year but failed to make last isn’t available the next two weeks. But win both of them, and it might be there for this team in January.

If there’s a full-circle narrative to this team, it’s fitting that Jarrett Guarantano should be the starting quarterback when the Vols go to Missouri in two weeks.

https://twitter.com/BroadwayJay2/status/1193394475093176320
Just easin’ the tension, baby.

Improbably, Guarantano is back in the conversation for Peyton Manning’s career completion percentage mark. After a 7-of-8 performance against the Cats, Guarantano is at 62.1%. Manning finished at 62.5%. Impossibly, “I hope he never plays another down,” has morphed into, “Hey, he could come back next year!”

He’s part of an offense featuring this:

Catches Per Game – Tennessee 2010-19

  1. Justin Hunter 2012 – 6.1
  2. Gerald Jones 2010 – 5.5
  3. Jauan Jennings 2019 – 5.0

And, at the same time, this:

Yards Per Catch with 20+ Catches – National Leaders

  1. Geraud Sanders, Air Force
  2. Tarique Milton, Iowa State
  3. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
  4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
  5. Marquez Callaway, Tennessee

Tennessee is close. On a lot of levels. To bowl eligibility. To reasserting dominance over the second tier of the SEC East. To certifiable progress in the year it looked least possible.

Close was ultimately a bad word for Butch Jones; his first two teams, digging out of a similar hole, played nine one-possession games. The Vols went 4-5. Pruitt’s teams just played their fifth one-possession game, and are 2-3. The best way to win them remains not to play them, and so far in this streak the Vols had handled their business without drama in victory, and with the right kind of theatrics in Tuscaloosa.

But when a close game seemed unavoidable from the opening minutes last night, and the Vols failed to help themselves…they still won. On the road in the SEC. Thanks, in large part, to an incredible goal line stand that had to warm Jeremy Pruitt’s heart.

Pruitt and the Vols made it this far last year. We’re close to an especially surprising something more.

What are you most certain of with this team?

(Sorry, non-Cimaglia division.)

Starting quarterback isn’t an option; we still don’t know if we’re going to see Brian Maurer this week, nor have we seen enough of him to know exactly what to expect. If that leads to Jarrett Guarantano, is his injured hand any better this week? Guarantano, to his credit, has dominated Kentucky statistically: 18-of-23 for 242 in Lexington two years ago, 12-of-20 for 197 in Knoxville last year. The Vols lost to Kentucky in 2017 because they couldn’t put the ball in the end zone, settling for six field goal attempts and four makes in a 29-26 loss. Obviously, that’s been an issue for Tennessee in the red zone all season.

The running game, much celebrated against Mississippi State and Alabama, had a rough night against UAB. The offensive line was banged up, and we’ll see if any of that has changed. Kentucky was stronger against Missouri in the rain, holding the Tigers to 125 yards on 34 carries (3.68 per). But in every other SEC contest, the Cats have allowed between 5.1-6.1 yards per carry.

For Tennessee, the answer to the certainty question has become the defense. It’s not surprising when Jeremy Pruitt is your head coach, but the way it’s happened? After getting sliced and diced by Georgia State, the Vols have rallied to 26th in SP+ defense. If Tennessee earns bowl eligibility, it will likely come because the Vols finish the regular season with a Top 25 defense. And that rally isn’t necessarily on the shoulders of a breakout superstar (no disrespect to Bryce Thompson’s three interceptions against UAB). The Vols are simply getting better play from almost everyone on that side of the ball: good, old-fashioned player development. Remember that? It’s a terrific sign for the program going forward.

It’s also a particularly good sign against Kentucky. Tennessee struggled against Kyle Trask, Jake Fromm, and Tua Tagovailoa. Stopping players like that might be a conversation for Missouri. But that’s not an option for Kentucky. And at this point, I think we can safely say that if you’re not getting above average or better play at quarterback, the Vol defense can have its way with you:

QBCmpAttPctYdsYPATDINTSacks
Trask202871.4%29310.5202
Fromm242982.8%2889.9200
Tua111291.7%15512.9011
TOTALS556979.7%73610.7413
Ellington GSU112445.8%1395.8202
Wilson BYU192965.5%2328.0104
UTC92634.6%762.9040
Shrader MSU51050.0%797.9117
Stevens MSU61154.5%676.102
Jones ALA61154.5%726.5001
Hilinski USC285154.9%3196.3103
Johnston UAB112250.0%1366.2033
TOTALS9518451.6%11206.151020

(I know, bad memories, but consider how this list looks even better if we take away a single BYU completion.)

Maybe Brian Maurer comes out and takes the torch of present and future quarterback play once more. Maybe the offensive line is more healthy and the Vols can run with more success against a Kentucky defense that’s struggled to stop it.

But no matter what, the way Tennessee’s defense has forced all but the three best quarterbacks it has faced into a plethora of bad decisions? That’s very good news no matter who the Vols or Wildcats send out to take the first snap Saturday night. Tennessee has been rolling four weeks in a row. But if Kentucky’s bye week and Tennessee’s sixth-straight affair lead to ugliness, this defense now has a history of making the opposition look bad enough for the Vols to escape with victory.

Tennessee Basketball Preview

Here’s the jump now: from a team to a program.

It’s teams, plural, the last two years. Because Tennessee’s DNA in 2018 & 2019 wasn’t made out of freshmen but upperclassmen, we got two cycle-up years. The Vols won an SEC title, spent more than a month at number one, tied for the program’s highest NCAA Tournament seed, made the Sweet 16, and gave four of its players a chance in the NBA. That list is, in order: hadn’t done in ten years, never before, never better, hadn’t in five years, and never before.

To ensure it’s not never again, Tennessee’s challenge is transitioning from “Grant Williams and those guys” to Tennessee Basketball. Living into an expectation they’re paying Rick Barnes to fulfill. The foundation is strong, and the future is bright with Barnes bringing more talent to Knoxville than literally ever before. It’s tempting to call this a bridge year then, but that’s the thing about building a program: the goal doesn’t change year-to-year.

The faces always do; even last year we learned teams are never exactly the same no matter how many of those faces return. In 2018 the Vols made their way up the ladder with unbelievable defense, finishing sixth in KenPom on that end of the floor. We assumed it would be the same story last season, then the Vols unleashed the third-best offense in college basketball, while the defense “slipped” to 42nd.

The assumption leans offense again this season: 19th there, 38th defensively, 20th overall in the KenPom preseason ratings. It may have to if Uros Plavsic (Ü-rosh PLÄV-chich) doesn’t win the appeal behind door number three. Either way, it’ll be both interesting and fun to see how all the pieces fit.

The most intriguing question is, of course, “How good is Josiah James?” That’s the nature of signing the program’s first five-star in six years. But I think the most important question is, “What can Yves Pons give Tennessee at the four?”

Last season Pons saw double-digit minutes through the non-conference portion of the schedule, an intriguing option to cause disruption in the back-court to fill a bench void left by James Daniel. A sign of Barnes’ maturity: making a lineup tweak in the midst of a 19-game winning streak. In the second half of January Pons’ minutes dropped to 10-14 per game, and by February he was backed way down to single digits, taking a pair of DNP’s against Florida and Auburn and playing only 11 minutes in three NCAA Tournament games.

The Vols didn’t need him in that forward spot last year when Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander were around. But this time – especially if Plavsic is out and Fulkerson has to live at the five – it would make things much simpler and the Vols more dangerous if Pons can be the answer at the four.

The back-court assumption is Bowden, Turner, and James, with the five-star playing point guard when Lamonte isn’t. Jalen Johnson is available to fill in that rotation as well. Fulkerson and Plavsic, if eligible, can give you post minutes. Pons would make for a tight seven-man rotation when you need it, giving the other freshmen a chance to ease into things.

Those other freshmen include Olivier Nkamhoua (OH-liv-ee-AY KAHM-wuh) from Finland and Drew Pember from Bearden, both in that 6’8″-6’9″ range. Nkamhoua played 17 minutes in the exhibition win, Pember 10, while Fulkerson and Pons each played 20. And there’s also 6’11” Zach Kent, a redshirt sophomore who’s appeared in two games in his Tennessee career. If you don’t see Plavsic, odds are you will see him; he logged 14 minutes in the exhibition.

Exhibitions don’t matter much, and I’m not sure the opener tonight will either. UNC-Asheville went 21-13 in 2018, and when Kermit Davis took the Ole Miss job, Nicholas McDevitt left Asheville for Murfreesboro. Year one for Mike Morrell: 4-27 and a 347th-place finish in KenPom, with their only two Division I wins coming against 336th-place USC Upstate. There’s no Ja Morant next week, but you’ll probably have to wait for Murray State to form any kind of actual opinion. But from there, the Vols go to Toronto to face Washington (a convenient 5:00 PM tip-off next Saturday when the football team is on a bye).

The last time we were building a program under Bruce Pearl, the Vols followed multiple departures in iconic seasons in 2008 & 2010 with appearances in the 8/9 game in 2009 & 2011. That’s the same neighborhood this team finds itself in if you value preseason projections. KenPom projects the Vols to go 20-10 (11-7) and finish tied for second in the SEC with Florida, behind Kentucky (projected 14-4). Look for the first edition of the Bracket Matrix here on Tuesday; Joe Lunardi has the Vols as a nine seed in his final preseason projection.

The Vols are paying to play in the top tier now; the results the last two seasons and the recruiting going forward already belong there. On the way, I wouldn’t expect a 19-game winning streak this season. But part of the fun of being this kind of program is the expectation that you’ll be there in March; I’m excited (and curious!) to see what their best basketball looks like between now and then. This team’s role in solidifying the program as more than a couple great years is significant. And part of being that kind of program is no individual team has to live in the past or anxiously await the future. This team can win. I can’t wait to see how they do it.

It starts at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ye olde SEC Network+. Welcome back, basketball.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 30 UAB 7 – Hope vs The Home Stretch

It’s easy, and perhaps now natural, to take a Tennessee performance like this against a group-of-five school and lament what it wasn’t. A hallmark of Tennessee’s post-2007 swoon is some combination of inability and unwillingness to dominate mid-majors. Starting with a four-point win over Northern Illinois and a loss to Wyoming in 2008, every single season has included a “meh” moment. Some calls are closer than others: UAB in 2010, Troy in 2012, South Alabama in 2013, UMass in 2017, and of course Georgia State in September. But these years also include plenty of scores like 24-0 over North Texas, 28-19 over Ohio, and 14-3 over Charlotte last year.

UAB was 6-1 and 16-3 over its last 19, but it was clear from the outset the 2019 Blazers were painfully short on competition. Tennessee’s defense dominated, included a record-tying performance from Bryce Thompson. Tennessee’s offense had their moments, but didn’t capitalize the way you wanted with such great field position. The red zone performance was more of the unfortunate same: five trips but only three touchdowns, leaving the Vols with only 14 touchdowns on 32 trips this season, 126th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

That remains Tennessee’s greatest statistical weakness, and an important one in these last three games. The decision to play Jarrett Guarantano most of the night, even with a surgically-repaired non-throwing hand, resurfaced some of our anxiety at quarterback after a brief spark from Brian Maurer and, truly, one of the best passing performances of the decade from Guarantano and J.T. Shrout just last week. Last night’s performance makes last week look even better, but mixes in old fears with new hopes.

But viewed through the lens of the entire season, Tennessee is still moving hard and fast in the right direction. In that long list of mid-major disappointments, you get lines like -22.5 in a 14-3 win over Charlotte, -28 in a 17-13 win over UMass, -27 in a 28-19 win over Ohio, etc.

Last night, due both to Tennessee’s start and UAB’s consistency, the Vols were only -13.5, and won by 23. The Vols have now covered the spread four weeks in a row for the first time since 2010, and just the 10th time in the last 35 years (closing lines via covers.com). Tennessee made it five weeks in a row at the end of the 2010 regular season thanks to Tyler Bray, who helped the Vols cover in defeat at South Carolina, then went 4-0 straight up and against Vegas in November. Before that, the last time Tennessee covered five straight weeks: the first five games of 1998.

Vegas, like the rest of us, hasn’t had a good feel for Tennessee all year. The Vols were overvalued by 62.5 points in their first four FBS games, and have now been undervalued by 61 points in the last four games. It’s a tangible sign of an actual turnaround. But the Vols have to get this thing to six wins to still call it that in the off-season.

Tennessee was 4-5 headed into this stretch last season, but got what felt like a revelation in the 24-7 win over #12 Kentucky. And then it turned out the prophets were false.

This time, there will be no revelations unless Missouri creates one first: Kentucky is 4-4, Missouri 5-3 and set to face Georgia and Florida back-to-back, and Vanderbilt is 2-6. The journey ventured through the upside-down, but the end result we wanted in preseason – rise above the SEC East’s second tier, close the gap on your biggest rivals – is here for the taking. The turnaround narrative – and its chance to last us all off-season, and spend eight months thinking about what will be instead of what could’ve been – is alive. Whether the Vols cover or not, play Guarantano or not, or any number of the uncertainties that have defined this season, the Vols need two wins in three games. Three in three, and I still believe the Vols can be in line for a much nicer bowl opportunity than we thought even in preseason.

Hope lives, even if we saw some glimpses of what tried to take it away against UAB. The Vols still played better than expected all things considered, and by Vegas’ standards have done so more consistently now than in nine years. The margins remain small and the questions many, but for the last month Tennessee has found the right answer again and again. Hope lives. It should probably hang on tight.

Go Vols.

For Our Next Trick…

If J.T. Shrout attempts four more passes – seems likely at this point – it will be the third time in the post-Fulmer era the Vols had three quarterbacks attempt at least 25 passes. It happened at the end of the disastrous 2017 season via Will McBride (17-of-40 in two appearances). And it happened in the middle of 2011 with Tyler Bray’s broken thumb, and Derek Dooley’s decision to pull Justin Worley’s redshirt. Worley did get a win against MTSU. But in terms of this kind of success against meaningful competition, you have to go back to 2004 with Brent Schaeffer, Erik Ainge, and Rick Clausen.

The 2019 Vols aren’t going to win the SEC East (but we can still Lloyd Christmas it another week if Georgia wins tomorrow!) but can still engineer an incredible turnaround. One way to measure that: what the Vols are currently doing against Vegas. After losing as a 24.5-point favorite to Georgia State and a three-point favorite to BYU, the Vols were +12.5 at Florida and lost by 31. That’s a 57-point swing in the first three FBS games (closing lines via covers.com), plus another five in losing to Georgia by 29 at +24.

Those five points are as close as Vegas has come on any Tennessee game this year. Because since then, the Vols beat Mississippi State as an underdog by 10, covered easily against Alabama, and beat South Carolina as an underdog by 20.

Two wins as an underdog of at least +4 isn’t new: the Vols did that last year against Auburn and Kentucky. But Vegas has now undervalued the Vols by a combined 51.5 points in the last three weeks.

It’s just the fifth time this decade the Vols have covered the spread three weeks in a row. Tennessee did it twice in 2015, and Josh Dobbs did it himself in 2014 (Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky). For the (hopefully) best comparison here, you have to go all the way back to Tyler Bray’s emergence: his appearance at South Carolina in 2010 and subsequent 4-0 run to end the regular season is the last time the Vols covered the spread at least four weeks in a row, getting to five in that run. Tennessee’s 52-14 win over Ole Miss in that stretch when the Vols were just -2.5 is the most I’ve seen UT undervalued this decade.

As the Vols (currently -12) look to make it four in a row this week, the opponent lends itself to additional mystery:

Joel’s statsy preview machine agrees with chaos this week. If you’re looking for regression to the mean, this probably isn’t the week for that since no one really knows what the mean is with UAB. It’s one more element of unpredictability in an already-massively-unpredictable season that might feature three quarterbacks and a wide receiver taking snaps at quarterback.

In such a time as this, the Vols should again look to their defense and run game to carry them; we learned last week that can look much more exciting than you think. Will we get the game we thought we’d see against Georgia State? Will UAB – winners of 16 of their last 19 games! – parlay that spirit into another competitive game? Will the Vols commit to a rotation between quarterbacks (whether it’s all three or only two with Guarantano’s wrist), or start one and ride him as long as he’s hot? Will that kind of plan – one bad throw away from the bench – affect the young quarterbacks?

Bowl expectations are riding high – 5.72 is the updated community average in our expected win total machine – but the most reasonable expectation truly remains the unexpected. Hopefully that manifests itself as another great performance from multiple quarterbacks and another Saturday to celebrate.