You have to love this Tennessee team. On the Vol Network postgame, Bob Kesling said John Fulkerson drew 12 of Kentucky’s 21 fouls, he of the fresh haircut and 16 points. I’m not sure Fulkerson was ever supposed to be Plan B for this team, and now he’s Plan A against Kentucky. Santiago Vescovi has been here for a heartbeat, and can be a feast or a famine every time he touches the ball. Today he scored 18 points and only turned it over thrice…
Just wait until Vescovi actually knows what he’s doing.
It wasn’t enough today. It was enough to give the Vols a chance: down five with 2:30 to play, Jordan Bowden got as good of a look as you could ask for against these guys, and just missed. Tennessee shot 7-of-26 from the arc; they can survive South Carolina and Alabama at a percentage like that, but not Kentucky. And these particular Cats are ruthless at the free throw line and really good at getting there: 22-of-25 today, taking advantage of every opportunity and giving the Vols no second chances after that missed three.
Barnes said in the postgame that this team is getting better, and he’s right. It’s not just a static “good game” idea that the Vols had a shot against Kentucky without Lamonte Turner and Josiah James. Fulkerson is so much more than we thought he could be, Pons means you’re never quite sure you’re beat on a play, and when Vescovi feasts the whole team eats well.
They’re running out of chances to get better fast enough to make the dance floor: the Vols fall to 13-10 (5-5) with a quick, tough turnaround in hosting Arkansas on Tuesday night. But at least this ragtag group of players, in playing hard and being fun to root for, is giving us more than just an, “Oh well, wait til the freshmen get here.” Today’s performance was another reason to be excited about getting Fulkerson, Pons, and Vescovi back next season too.
Kentucky snaps a four-game losing streak in Knoxville, and moves into a three-way tie with Auburn and LSU at 8-2 in league play. The Vols need wins. I don’t know if they’ll get better in ways that lead to the bracket. But there was still some in encouragement in the way they played today, even in having to let go of a streak we thoroughly enjoyed against Kentucky.
Once upon a time, Kentucky won 11 straight in this series. Jerry Green’s Vols broke that streak in Rupp Arena, and Tennessee won four of seven from 1999-2002. Then Kentucky was at it again, winning eight in a row.
Bruce Pearl’s Vols broke that streak, also in Rupp Arena. Pearl finished his time in Knoxville at 4-9 against the Cats – which was progress considering where we’d been in this rivalry – but that came after a 3-3 split his first three years. The Vols beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville in 2010, but that was Tennessee’s only win in a ten game stretch against the Cats.
Kentucky’s last win in Knoxville during that stretch was in 2012, when the eventual national champions escaped with a three-point win in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. The next year in Knoxville, the Vols unleashed a shocking 30-point beat down on Kentucky. A temporary bad scheduling idea from the league office meant the game wasn’t played in Knoxville in 2014. Kentucky’s almost-undefeated juggernaut won in Knoxville against Donnie Tyndall’s squad in 2015.
And then Rick Barnes arrived. The Vols are 6-4 against Kentucky since then, 4-0 in Knoxville.
The Cats have one victory in Knoxville in the last seven years.
Any win over these guys is always special. But there was a time when any win was an oasis in the desert. There was a time when Kentucky fans filled the upper deck with an expectation of an easy trip to Knoxville. For Tennessee to turn the tide in this rivalry this way, especially in Knoxville, is unheard of in my lifetime. It’s a great season to be a Tennessee Vol.
Every Kentucky squad to roll through here in Barnes’ tenure has been ranked, as you’d expect. Tennessee beat the Cats in Knoxville at #20, #4, #17, and #4. And we’re getting ready to catch them at #15.
They did it by shooting 30-of-34 at the free throw line in 2016. They did it with an all-time J.P. Prince stat line from freshman Grant Williams in 2017 (13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 0 turnovers, and the game-winner). They did it with a 16-3 second half run in 2018, erasing an eight-point halftime deficit. And last year they did it with defense, holding Kentucky to 14 field goals and 31.8% from the floor.
There’s no one way it’s happened for Barnes. Many of the heroes of the last three wins are gone, but the Vols also beat Kentucky with 18 points and 13 rebounds from Armani Moore in 2016, and 25 points from Robert Hubbs in 2015. Barnes has found a way to get the best from everyone, not just the superstars, in this match-up in Knoxville. We will need it to keep this thing going.
There is no March without February
The bracket remains a simple computation: Tennessee needs wins, and the schedule is strong enough that just about any path to 18-19 regular season wins gets you in the conversation. Home wins are easier, and getting Kentucky up on the board certainly looks better. This is the first of two shots the Vols will get at the Cats, with two more against Auburn also on the horizon. This team will have its chances for marquee wins. Might as well start here.
To do that, Tennessee needs to take advantage of both the good news and the bad news in this match-up. First, the good news: for a Tennessee team that struggles so mightily with turnovers, Kentucky doesn’t present much of a challenge on paper. The Cats are 280th nationally in turnovers forced, 305th in steals forced. Like the Vols and plenty of Calipari teams of the past, they like to block shots and let that create the necessary havoc defensively without having to gamble and give up easy buckets.
…with one notable exception: Ashton Hagans, who will almost certainly go against Santiago Vescovi when both are in the game. Hagans is 74th nationally in steals, and Vescovi is currently giving it away on around 30% of his possessions. If Josiah James doesn’t play again, it puts a lot of pressure minutes on Vescovi (and Jordan Bowden, who is typically much better with ball security). Hagans is good enough to disrupt this whole equation by himself. If that happens, the Vols will have a very difficult time getting this done.
On the other end of the floor, Kentucky presents a similar challenge to the Mississippi State squad that decimated Tennessee’s defense in the second half. The Cats like to run three guards with two elite big men: 6’11” Nick Richards and 6’10” E.J. Montgomery. Richards in particular has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points and 10 rebounds over Kentucky’s last six games against a really tough schedule. Auburn did a good job limiting him without fouling, but he shot 14 free throws against Texas Tech and 15 against Mississippi State.
The Vols were the aggressor against Alabama, and as was the case with the home win over South Carolina, the free throw line made all the difference. Kentucky is typically the aggressor: fifth nationally in free throw rate.
Free throw numbers the last 10 games for @Vol_Hoops 5-5
Last 5 losses UT: 43-of-61 Opp: 95-of-127
Last 5 wins UT: 90-of-114 Opp: 56-of-85
So, being aggressive, playing inside-out and getting to the free throw line works.
Watch the lineups in this one, especially if James doesn’t play again. The Vols made most of their hay against Alabama with Uros Plavsic in foul trouble; this is a big-boy spot for him. Maybe we walk away from this one just shaking our heads and saying Kentucky’s bigs were a bad match-up for us. But we’ve seen Pons and Fulkerson hold their own against elite bigs from Washington; we’ve just also seen everyone get carved up by Mississippi State’s. Which way is this one going to go?
Saturday, 1:00 PM, CBS. Can Knoxville come alive again for the Vols against Big Blue Nation? Can Tennessee make win #14 their best one yet?
No Josiah James for the second game in a row, Bama on fire from three, foul trouble taking Uros Plavisc out of the equation…you’d be forgiven for shutting this thing down as it neared halftime. Alabama took a 39-24 lead with 1:49 to play in the first half after Plavsic picked up his third foul on a dead ball technical, sending some frustration Alabama’s way via a shot to the ribcage.
It wasn’t the sort of moment that felt like a turning point for Tennessee, because things genuinely felt too far gone. The Vols were staring at 12-10 (4-5) with an uphill climb in front of them on the schedule, ineffective in so many ways since almost winning at Kansas.
But the Vols did the same thing in that last 1:49 that got them all the way back in the next 20 minutes. Jordan Bowden hit two free throws. John Fulkerson hit two more. The Vols forced a turnover. And Fulkerson hit a big shot.
Alabama’s lead was down to eight at halftime. The Vols cut it to four in the first minute of the second half, then Kira Lewis hit a three, and then we stayed there for a while at 43-36. Another three put the Tide back up 10 with 15 minutes to play.
The Vols scored 36 points in those first 25 minutes, then scored 33 in the last 15.
Jordan Bowden was again a huge difference maker in the second half. He scored five straight points to get the Vols back within five, then knocked in another one to bring it down to two with 10 minutes to play. Fulkerson hit two free throws to tie it, Kira Lewis splashed a three, then Fulkerson hit two more free throws. A minute later, the Vols got the lead on two Bowden free throws. Rinse, repeat.
Bama would push back in front, but the Vols would push back. Tied at 61-61 with under four to go, we got this beauty:
(Uros Plavsic is the MVP of bench celebrations on this night.)
Alabama fans will be quick to point out the foul differential – 14 against the Vols, 26 on the Tide which eventually disqualified their three best post players – but we’ll be quick to point out how bad the Vols had been at getting to the line in league play, and what a huge difference it can make.
Tennessee never trailed after Fulkerson’s slam, but Bama had a shot down two in the final seconds. Yves Pons said no:
…and then made two free throws to put the Vols up four, making Bama’s buzzer three meaningless.
What a huge win, in joyous and unexpected fashion.
The Vols were 2-of-18 from three and survived Bama hitting 11 of them by way of 23-of-32 at the line. Alabama shot eight free throws. Offensive rebounds, the bane of Tennessee’s existence last week? Nine for the Tide, 19 (!!!) for the Vols. Kentucky will present a much bigger challenge, literally and figuratively, in this department, but kudos to the Vols for completely turning this aspect around.
And while the Vols still had 13 turnovers of their own, Alabama gave it away 20 times. All of Tennessee’s weaknesses saw vast improvement tonight, and it was enough for a big Quad I win on the road.
Fulkerson finishes with 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting, including 6-of-6 in the first half. He and Pons each had three blocks. Bowden struggled at 5-of-17 but still finished with 20 points because he got to the line 11 times. The Vols still got very little scoring from their bench – two from Drew Pember- but got great hustle minutes and two steals from Davonte Gaines. Santiago Vescovi was 2-of-15 (!) from the floor but earned the J.P. Prince Stat Sheet of the Night: 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and only 1 turnover.
It was easy to give up on this game and, in some ways, this team late in the first half. And yet, they found a way by minimizing their weaknesses and maximizing the free throw line. It’s fun to watch guys like Fulkerson get better and then know they’ll also be around next year to play with all the new toys. But tonight’s win also keeps the Vols in the hunt this season. And Big Blue Nation is up next.
SEC play hits the halfway point this week, with LSU a stubborn 8-0 to lead the way. This is where I’d like to joke about their strength of schedule – currently 13th in league play and only one match-up against both Auburn and Kentucky the whole year – but guess who’s 14th?
That will change in a hurry for Tennessee, who catches both Auburn and Kentucky twice in the last ten games as well as four other Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols’ 4-4 start to league play and current three-game skid looks even more challenging in the light of what’s to come. But in conference play, Tennessee’s hodgepodge lineup is actually doing a handful of important things really well. They’re just also doing a handful of important things worse than anyone else in the league.
Mississippi State’s second half dominance knocked the Vols from atop the SEC defensive perch, but Tennessee is still second in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings behind South Carolina. The Vols are first in the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed and first in defending inside the arc, thanks in large part to being first in shot-blocking. And teams are shooting just 28.2% against the Vols from the arc in league play, fifth-best in the SEC.
It’s all the makings of a really good defense, except for one thing: the Vols are dead last in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. And it’s not close: in SEC play, the Vols surrender the rebound on 36.1% of opponent misses. Coincidentally, Texas A&M is 13th at 33%.
The Vols allowed the rebound on 57.5% of A&M’s misses, thankfully by far the worst number of the season. But the Vols haven’t been good at keeping opponents off the glass in league play: Missouri got 28.2% of their rebounds, and every other opponent was over 30%.
Tennessee’s defense has been really good in every other facet, but has become so bad at allowing second chances that it’s negating much of their good work. On the other end of the floor in league play, the Vols are third in effective field goal percentage, third in shooting percentage inside the arc, fourth in three-point shooting (33%), and fourth at the free throw line (77.4%). Those are really solid splits, and when combined with a really good defense, Tennessee should be winning fairly often.
But here’s the problem: shooting 77.4% at the line matters less when you can’t get there. Tennessee is last in the SEC in free throw rate, getting to the line on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts. Ole Miss is 13th at 33.3%. And the Vols are last in the SEC in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 20.9% of their possessions (Georgia is right behind at 20.7%).
When the Vols don’t turn it over, they shoot it well (still almost exclusively a byproduct of good ball movement, as Tennessee is third nationally in assist rate). But they don’t help themselves by getting to the line, and giving the ball away one out of five times down the floor tends to prevent any real runs from developing.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s first shot defense is really good, especially inside the arc. But they keep giving teams second shots, which tends to break everything down.
Maybe all of this gets filed away for next year if this team continues to struggle this way. But it’s strange to see Tennessee be so good at some of the core components of good basketball, but struggle so much at some of the others.
If you just read the score, you might think, “Okay, tough loss on the road against a hot team, their strengths are our weaknesses, offensive rebounds, etc.” In reality, we saw a really good half of basketball from Tennessee in light of all those things. And then we saw an exceptional half of basketball from Mississippi State.
The Vols led 34-28 at the break despite no points from Jordan Bowden and Josiah James out with a groin injury. Put a pin in that; maybe we underrated his value on the defensive end. Against the Bulldogs the Vols went big in James’ absence: Uros Plavisc got his first start, and Tennessee didn’t shy away. The big fella had 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting and zero turnovers, a definite positive from today’s outing. Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado was saddled with foul trouble early, limiting their effectiveness. And the Vols came out hot from three.
Ado still only finished with six points and six rebounds. But having him on the floor alongside 6’10” Reggie Perry helped Mississippi State absolutely carve up what had been an excellent Tennessee defense in the second half. Perry finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds. But he was far from alone. Mississippi State scored in transition, broke hearts at the end of the shot clock, and repeatedly used great ball movement to get easy looks at the rim.
How easy: in the second half, the Bulldogs shot 18-of-26 from the floor. On the day they went 25-of-30 at the free throw line. They scored 58 points in the last 20 minutes.
Mississippi State had a Top 20 offense coming in, the best the Vols have faced outside LSU and Kansas. Their efficiency in the second half was relentless; it’s hard to identify a run or a big shot when they just all go in. Of their eight second half misses, ESPN’s play-by-play credits them with the rebound on six. And they only turned it over eight times the whole game. Will Warren cites it as Tennessee’s worst performance in defensive efficiency since 2004.
What percentage of blame do we assign where? Josiah’s absence? Plavsic adjusting to a much bigger role and the Vols sacrificing defense for offense? Tennessee’s defense relying heavily on shot blocking against a team where it wasn’t really available? Mississippi State’s excellence?
We’ll need more data on some of that, first and foremost how often the Vols will play Plavsic. Tennessee’s defense that rated 29th coming in now rates 48th coming out. The next test – at Alabama on Tuesday – won’t feature the same size or offensive efficiency, but the Tide do run at the third-fastest tempo in college basketball. Tennessee, as you know, does not. After that is Kentucky, which will present a similar challenge with Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery in the post.
Six years ago tomorrow, Tennessee went to Alabama and put a beat down on the Tide 76-59. The win moved Cuonzo Martin’s squad to 14-7 (5-3), in position to capitalize on its last ten games and make the tournament with room to spare. In response, they lost four of their next six, a stretch that ended with an overtime loss at Texas A&M (KenPom 138 at tip-off). The Vols were 16-11 (7-7) with no opportunities left for marquee victories.
The lesson from that year is hopefully easier learned when we’re not dealing with petitions at the same time: don’t quit on your team until the math says they can’t earn an at-large bid. Those Vols won four in a row, the last three by an average of 31 points, then beat South Carolina by 15 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, then flirted with victory against 31-2 Florida on Saturday. That was all just enough to get them to Dayton. And as that team will also remind you, all you’ve gotta do is get in: four games later they were a disputed charge call from the Elite Eight.
So yeah, the current Tennessee team did themselves zero favors in losing to another Texas A&M team with a triple digit KenPom on another lucky three. What would’ve been a tidy resume on a soft bubble now has Tennessee’s first bad loss of the year. And as much as anything, it’s one more win the Vols won’t have for a team looking to get in on strength of schedule and late-season improvement, not a big win total.
What follows is (hopefully!) the beginning of an exercise we do around here whenever the Vols are on the bubble: how does the bracket’s past inform its present, and how likely are the Vols to hit those historical benchmarks for a team that gets in? The NCAA’s change from RPI to NET means we say goodbye to lots of research, since we haven’t had to worry about the bubble the last couple years.
Here’s the good news: if Tennessee is going to get to 19+ wins, they’re going to have to beat good teams along the way. If they’re going to beat good teams, it’s because they’re getting better. If they’re close, it’s because they got quality wins to get there. That argument really does feel like the only way in for this team. And, thanks to roster shakeup, it goes a little farther than the average bear: Tennessee has still only played five games with both Santiago Vescovi and Uros Plavsic.
So the same rules apply, as always: get better, get wins. The margin of error has simply shrunk to create incredibly meaningful outcomes every time out now. They’re not all must-win – an 11-0 finish probably means an SEC title! – but the Vols have eleven opportunities left to get as close to 20 wins as possible, facing a schedule that makes almost nothing easy.
So here, for as long as we can enjoy it, is what I think it’ll take to get the Vols on the bubble.
The Bottom Line: 19-15
Since the tournament expanded to 68 in 2011, eight teams earned an at-large bid with 14 losses on Selection Sunday. Plus, in each of the last three years, an SEC team has danced with 15 losses. In 2011 Marquette danced at 20-14. Each of the other ten teams to get in with 14 or 15 losses all won 19 games. (Fun fact: only one went to Dayton!)
Year
Team
Record
Seed
2019
Florida
19-15
10
2019
Ohio State
19-14
11
2018
Texas
19-14
10
2018
Alabama
19-15
9
2017
Vanderbilt
19-15
9
2017
Michigan State
19-14
9
2011
Marquette
20-14
11
2011
Michigan State
19-14
10
2011
Southern Cal
19-14
Dayton
2011
Tennessee
19-14
9
2011
Penn State
19-14
10
If you’re looking for the kind of soft bubble year that could materialize this season, 2011 is a good example. A common thread here: these are all power conference teams, and with the exception of Penn State and Southern Cal in 2011, they all carry good-to-great name brands.
(Also, Oklahoma State got in at 18-13 in 2015, but that record isn’t available to Tennessee; the closest the Vols could come would be an 18-13 regular season finish plus whatever happened in the SEC Tournament.)
So any conversation about Tennessee getting in has to land, historically speaking, with the Vols finishing at 19-15 or better.
In KenPom, 10 of those 11 teams had a Top 25 strength of schedule; the 11th was 2011 USC, who went to Dayton with a schedule rating of 36. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 65th, but as we’ll see, that’s getting ready to rise. How high? Well…
It goes without saying you want the non-conference teams the Vols played to all do well (yes, even Memphis). Therein lie some potential problems: Washington was 10-2 but now sits at 12-10 (2-7); four of their last five losses came in overtime, overtime, by one, and by three. VCU gets another shot at Dayton in Richmond on February 18.
At the moment, those are both Quad 1 wins for Tennessee. They both came with Lamonte Turner, but that’s really only an argument you make if the Vols come up short on Quad 1 wins in general, and if they do that, they’re not going to be anywhere near the bubble anyway.
Here Comes Quad 1
Quad 1 in the NET ratings is a home win over a Top 30 team, a neutral win over a Top 50 team, and a road win over a Top 75 team. VCU is currently 33rd in NET; Kansas and Florida State are safe barring total collapse. Washington is currently 48th; it would help if they stayed in the Top 50.
But if you want opportunity, behold:
Opponent
Current NET
Quad
at Mississippi St
43
1
at Alabama
40
1
Kentucky
23
1
Arkansas
38
2
at South Carolina
75
1
Vanderbilt
165
4
at Auburn
27
1
at Arkansas
38
1
Florida
42
2
at Kentucky
23
1
Auburn
27
1
Again: if the Vols even approach the bubble, they’ll have done so with quality wins.
Paths to the Bubble
If 19-15 is a proven minimum, the Vols can get at least there a number of ways. Let’s do something A&M proved clearly unsafe, and assume the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. That would be a second Quad 3/4 loss (Texas A&M is currently 126th in NET and needs to stay above 160 the rest of the way to prevent the Vols from having a Quad 4 loss). Vanderbilt can be feisty, but is still 0-7 in league play. A loss to the Commodores in Knoxville would be catastrophic.
So, let’s give ourselves that one. That’s 13 wins with 10 other games on the table. The pain of losing to A&M is felt most here: win that one, and you’ve got a really nice argument to just go 5-5 in these last ten games, and you’re 19-12 (11-7) and sitting pretty headed to the SEC Tournament.
Now, if you give the Vols Vanderbilt, you’ve got the following scenarios to get to at least 19-15:
17-14 (9-9): Vols go 4-6 in those 10 games, need at least two wins in the SEC Tournament (this is Tennessee’s current projection in KenPom)
18-13 (10-8): Vols go 5-5 in those 10 games, need at least one win in the SEC Tournament
19-12 (11-7): Vols go 6-4 in those 10 games
If Tennessee finishes at least .500 in SEC play, we can at least talk ourselves into something at the SEC Tournament. If you want to feel safe, the Vols need to beat Vanderbilt and win more than they lose against everyone else.
KenPom currently gives the Vols 3.99 wins in those other 10 games. So clearly, we’re talking about Tennessee exceeding expectations. One point here too: when the resume looks like this, there’s very little room between the bubble and missing the NIT. If the Vols are 17-14 we’ll go to Nashville hoping for a couple of wins, but a first round loss might also leave them out of any postseason play at 17-15. This happened to Rick Barnes’ second team, who was 14-10 (6-5) on February 8 but lost five of their last seven, then fell to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament, and stayed home at 16-16.
If there’s any good news here, it’s again the belief that this team has a better chance to get better than most because it’s still getting all of its pieces lined up. The Vols need to beat Vanderbilt. And they need to win as many games as possible the rest of the way. It’s simple, but not easy.
That starts tomorrow in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that’s won four of its last five and is also eyeing the tournament. 2:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Get better, get wins, get dancing.
It’s happened a couple of times to the Vols in football: best-of-the-best talent on the other team gets held in relative check until the very end, but the end is all they need. Jadeveon Clowney did it against us. Rocket Ismail did too, if you go back that far.
Today the Vols executed the gameplan they wanted against short-handed Kansas: get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble and take advantage when he’s off the floor. In the first half his second foul immediately led to an 18-8 Vol spurt. His return led to an 18-4 Kansas run. The Vols kept fighting, cutting the lead to three with two minutes to play. From there:
Azubuike gets a fairly generous call on John Fulkerson while setting a screen, hits one of two free throws, Kansas by four
Azubuike reads and intercepts an alley-oop attempt from Jordan Bowden to John Fulkerson
Devon Dotson is fouled by Santiago Vescovi, makes one of two free throws, Kansas by five with 55 seconds to go
Azubuike blocks John Fulkerson’s shot out of bounds
Azubuike blocks Yves Pons’ shot and recovers it
Kansas hits free throws, wins by six
After playing 31-35 minutes the last four games, the Vols kept Azubuike to 27 today with foul trouble. In those 27 minutes he still had 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting and a better-than-average 6-of-11 at the free throw line. He added 11 rebounds and four blocks, none bigger than the plays he created at the end of the game.
Tennessee let its best players take almost all the shots: Jalen Johnson got a good look at a three late that didn’t go down, which was the only shot by a bench player on the day. John Fulkerson was a focal point again, 15 points on 7-of-12 shooting plus 12 rebounds. Jordan Bowden sat out with foul trouble in the first half, then came alive with 19 points, all in the second half, including three threes and lots of confidence going to the rim.
Maybe the moment got a little big for Josiah James, who went 0-for-6 with six turnovers. But the moment was never better for Yves Pons: a career-high 24 points on just 14 shots plus 6-of-7 at the line, to go with seven rebounds and three blocks. Pons was sensational today especially given what Tennessee was asking him to do on the defensive end, spending time dealing with both Azubuike and Dotson.
Unlike maddening losses to North Carolina in 2017 (3-of-13 from the arc) and 2018 (self-inflicted turnovers at the bitter end), this result as an underdog against an elite program makes more sense. The Vols were good today, almost good enough. Azubuike was better.
But today’s good can be plenty good enough to get the Vols where they want to go this season.
Jordan Bowden: Coach told us in the locker room that we can play with anybody in the country. No. 3 team in the country, we were right there.
This is true, and this Kansas team was a particularly nasty match-up for this Tennessee team. The Vols defend well enough to give themselves a chance, are getting smart, difference-making basketball from John Fulkerson on a regular basis, and got the best we’ve ever seen from Yves Pons today in non-fluke fashion.
The only way this loss really hurts is if Tennessee doesn’t take care of enough of its own business the next seven weeks. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which is playing .500 ball in SEC play the rest of the way. That would get the Vols in the conversation. The team we saw today can do more than that.
The schedule breaks into two parts, with a pair of well-timed intermissions. The Vols will come back from Kansas to face Texas A&M in Knoxville on Tuesday; the Aggies are 166th in KenPom. Then it’s the warm-up:
at Mississippi State, at Alabama, vs Kentucky, vs Arkansas, at South Carolina
There’s a chance to get Quad I wins in three or four of those games, with the toughest tests at home. Then the Vols get Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. Then it’s the finale:
at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn
That finish might go five-for-five in Quad I.
The goal, as always: get better. Be playing your best basketball in March, and give yourself the best possible opportunity in the bracket along the way. The loss today won’t help the resume on paper, but it was definitely among Tennessee’s best basketball so far. Can this team, still learning how all its pieces fit together, keep getting better as the schedule does? We saw today it can have a chance against anyone. It just needs to get on the dance floor to prove it. Every win counts.
Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?
If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.
This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:
Year
KenPom
Record
Finish
2019
26.24
31-6
Sweet 16
2014
23.69
24-13
Sweet 16
2018
22.27
26-9
Round 2
2008
22.17
31-5
Sweet 16
2006
19.44
22-8
Round 2
2010
18.50
28-9
Elite 8
2007
18.29
24-11
Sweet 16
2009
16.48
21-13
Round 1
2020
13.50
12-6
2002
12.67
15-16
2017
12.62
16-16
2011
12.41
19-15
Round 1
2012
11.38
19-15
NIT
2003
10.99
17-12
NIT
2013
10.47
20-13
NIT
2005
8.89
14-17
2016
7.31
15-19
2004
7.30
15-14
NIT
2015
7.24
16-16
The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.
If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).
Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.
So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.
But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.
It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:
Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom
And here’s who went to Dayton last year:
Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom
Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.
A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:
Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
#15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
#1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN
The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.
At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.
There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.
The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.
It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.
So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.
And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:
Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)
Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.
What’s interesting about Saturday is it’ll be the first time in a few years that #Vols basketball can go into any game with absolutely nothign to lose.
Might as well play fast and hard and see what happens, right? Nothing to lose.
The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.
College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.
First, the history: Vanderbilt, as I’m sure you know by now, made a three in each of its 1,080 games since the line came to college basketball in 1986. Tonight, they went 0-for-25.
That’s fun, and the kind of semi-petty rivalry stuff you love. It’s strange to say, but the Vols have now won five of six at Memorial Gym, and four straight since Kevin Stallings left.
The history will get the headlines, but Tennessee’s defense overall was outstanding: the Commodores, to their credit, went 21-of-26 at the free throw line, which is the only reason they didn’t score something in the 30’s. Along with 0-for-25 from three, Vandy went 12-of-26 from two. A dozen made shots is the fewest the Vols have allowed since Donnie Tyndall’s season, when Mississippi State hit 11.
In the first half, it looked like we would have to embrace our worst fears for the rest of this season. The Vols led 21-20 at the break and neither team made a three. But the start of the second half was indeed Tennessee’s best basketball without Lamonte Turner. After a Fulkerson turnover to open the second 20 minutes, we got the following sequence:
After scoring 21 points in the first 20 minutes, the Vols hit an 8-0 spurt in less than 90 seconds. Defense led to offense, offense went to the rim, rinse repeat: the Vols hit 10 of their first 11 shots in the second half and finished at 53.1% from the floor. Most importantly, perhaps: the Vols went just 1-of-8 from three.
Tennessee’s previous season low on attempted threes: their best win, 13 against Washington. The Vols had an eight-three game against Tennessee Tech last season; before that, you have to go back to the Cuonzo Maritn era to find a single digit three game.
Vanderbilt is struggling, especially without Aaron Nesmith, and you can’t build a resume on what you do against the Commodores right now. But you can build confidence, and that’s exactly what it looked like Jordan Bowden did tonight. It’s the kind of game we thought we’d need from him coming into the season: leads the team in shots at 7-of-11, plus gets to the line eight times and hits seven. The high-percentage stuff inside was there too: John Fulkerson took 10 shots after getting just two at Georgia, making five to finish with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Pons went 5-of-7. Josiah James was just 2-of-8 but facilitated on the break like a champ, picking up a number of hockey assists after grabbing nine defensive rebounds. And while the Vols are still working in Plavsic, they also got nice bench minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua with four points and four boards.
In KenPom the Vols go to #25 in defensive efficiency. I doubt teams are going to go 0-for-three the rest of the way, but Tennessee can still cause all kinds of trouble on one end of the floor to create better opportunities for itself where it struggles on the other end. Tennessee welcomes Ole Miss on Tuesday night, currently leading the only undefeated team left in conference play from LSU. Then the Vols go to Kansas, number one in KenPom and hosting College Gameday on Saturday. There’s a lot of basketball in front of the 11-6 (3-2) Vols. The competition will get stiffer and the luck will be kinder to future opponents. But the makings of Tennessee’s best basketball were on display tonight; hopefully they and the confidence they inspired will come on back to Knoxville.
The Vols fell to 10-6 (2-2) on Wednesday. Sure, Georgia shot well above their averages from three (10-of-23) and at the line (16-of-21), doing us no favors. But Tennessee’s offensive woes continued, even as the quality of defensive competition decreased. The Vols took 26 threes and made only six of them, while getting to the line only a dozen times. Jordan Bowden was better from inside the arc, but went 0-for-5 from three (as did Yves Pons). It was a forgettable performance in a 17-point loss that was worse than that for much of the night.
It’s not exclusively good news, but the league is a certified mess right now. Kentucky lost 81-78 at the same South Carolina team that struggled to score 55 in Knoxville. And top five Auburn, 15-0, went to Alabama and lost by 19 in just their third game against a Top 50 KenPom opponent this season.
Those same ratings project LSU – 4-0 and with a schedule that includes Kentucky and Auburn just once each – to win the league at 13-5, with five other teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8. KenPom projects more of the same for the Vols: a 9-9 SEC finish (plus a loss at Kansas) which would leave Tennessee at 17-14 on the year.
It’s still too early with too many moving pieces to throw in the towel on this season, but it’s also too early to assume the NIT would be a safe landing spot. As has been the case since Lamonte Turner went out, Tennessee simply needs wins. The younger players getting better is probably the biggest storyline for the program, but if the Vols can piece together more wins like Missouri and South Carolina, they can at least stay in the postseason conversation.
To do that, it’s abundantly clear they have to rely on their defense, still 37th nationally in KenPom and eighth nationally in defending inside the arc, thanks in part to being 17th nationally in shot blocking. That has to become the constant, with Vescovi and Plavsic getting better and not worse as things go along. On the offensive side, there are enough individual points of hope to make Barnes’ frustrations justified, like this:
#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We need so much more from our guards, and we need a post guy to step up and want to score the ball. Fulky just won’t accept that role. Tonight was Uros’ first game, but he actually did some of that stuff, which was good to see.
Fulkerson is 69-of-104 (66.3%) on the year, making him 45th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 15th in effective field goal percentage. If you thought Kyle Alexander was a high percentage bucket in there, he shot 61.7% from two last year. What Fulkerson is doing is closer to Alexander’s 2018 season, when he went 76-of-112 (67.9%). The difference, of course, is the last two Vol teams had a number of other offensive options. On the current Tennessee roster, going inside to Fulkerson is one of the best plays the Vols can make. Some defenses do a great job denying the ball in there, some can create a mismatch with size in the post. But even as Tennessee is trying to work in Plavsic in the post, we can’t have a game where Fulkerson takes only two shots (Georgia) or three (Wisconsin). Do watch the seven footer as he gets a feel here: Plavsic took six shots in 17 minutes compared to Fulkerson’s two in 22.
Tennessee is fourth nationally in assist rate, sharing the ball on 65.4% of their made baskets. Sometimes that comes via style of play: VMI is second in the nation in this department with nearly half their shots coming from the arc. But while a number of elite offenses get there this way – Michigan State, Iowa, Dayton, Tennessee last year – it’s clearly not a sign of an elite offense by itself. Maine is seventh nationally in assist rate, but 335th in KenPom offense and 5-13 overall.
What it tells us about Tennessee: the Vols can’t get buckets without ball movement. There’s no one on this team who successfully creates their own shot. That should change next year, though it isn’t always tied to a Rick Barnes offense: the Vols were 188th in this stat his first year in the Kevin Punter show. In the early portion of this season, Lamonte Turner put up numbers that would still rank fourth nationally in assist rate. Vescovi is making progress in his assist-to-turnover ratio, but it’s a big ask for him to even approach what Lamonte was doing for this team early in the season. Still, the Vols can be good here – assisting on 18 of 24 made shots against LSU, 10 of 14 against South Carolina – with an emphasis on simply getting good shots. I’m fine with open threes that don’t go down. Clearly there are few bad shots for Fulkerson in the post. Too often Tennessee gets bogged down in the half-court and is forced to make a bad decision at the end of the shot clock. Get good shots, and trust your defense to take care of the difference.
What’s a good shot when the Vols don’t get quality touches in the post and have to settle for more threes? We need more data on Vescovi, who is now 11-of-22 on the year. Early returns from Yves Pons have cooled: he’s now at 30.2%. Jordan Bowden continues to struggle at 27.8%. By far the brightest spot right now: Josiah James at 20-of-51 (39.2%). He’s been shooting it more in Lamonte’s absence, 12-of-21 (57.1%) in the last five games. It’s clearly not enough to win by itself, but the Vols would be well suited to look and create for the freshman more.
You can’t assume anything in the SEC this year, but the closest thing might be Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 8-8 in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and just lost Aaron Nesmith with a stress fracture. It’s a bad blow for their program, who just lost a year of Darius Garland last season. Nesmith’s absence puts even more on Saben Lee, with a host of freshmen behind him.
The Commodores put a scare in Auburn on the road, but without Nesmith lost to Texas A&M in Nashville by 19 and at Arkansas by 20. Other than UNC Asheville and Alabama State, Vanderbilt is the worst defense Tennessee will see all season, by far. The Commodores are 249th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They foul a lot, which could help Tennessee get more of their offense heading in that direction. And they’re the worst team in the league overall at 161st in KenPom.
As we know, you assume nothing in Memorial Gym, where the freshly-minted #1 Vols almost went down last season. But it’s the best possible SEC opponent given what’s currently ailing Tennessee.
