Author Archives: Will Shelton

There are plenty of statistical talking points behind what Georgia did to Auburn last night; we’ll get to that. For now, let’s talk about what Tennessee is doing unusually well:

Have the Vols ever had four fourth down conversions in a single game?

I can’t find this record in Tennessee’s media guide. What I do know about yesterday is it’s the first time the Vols had four fourth down conversions in the same game in at least the last 11 years (also known as the post-Fulmer era), which is as far back as the data goes from SportSource Analytics.

What’s more: four fourth down conversions represent more than Tennessee had in three of the last four seasons: 2-for-12 last year, 3-for-10 in 2017, 2-for-9 in 2016.

#Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt on being 4-of-4 in fourth-downs offensively today: We’re not gonna have fear here. We’re not gonna play with fear, and we’re not gonna coach with fear.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) October 3, 2020

So far into 2020 #CFB season, the @Vol_Football off is doing a great job of making Bill Walsh proud by moving chains on 1st & 2nd down. Just 15% (7) of the #Vols 47 first downs have come on 3rd down plays & just 18% of their overall plays have been 3rd down. Great sign for Vol’s.

— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) October 4, 2020

That 1-of-11 performance against South Carolina will hang out in our stats for a while. But 6-of-13 against Missouri on third down got the job done, and positions Tennessee nicely as an efficient offense. Third down success is no guarantee – Kentucky leads the nation at 60% and is 0-2 – but the Vols, so far, have done a good job on first and second down, did a much better job on third down yesterday, and are indeed playing without fear on fourth down.

Making the biggest difference in the red zone

Much maligned and rightfully so, the 2019 Vols scored touchdowns on less than half of their red zone possessions, finishing 112th nationally in that stat. This year, through two weeks: nine trips, seven touchdowns, one field goal, one victory formation.

We’ve been led astray early here before: in 2017, the Vols scored five touchdowns in five red zone trips against Georgia Tech (obligatory, “That might’ve been the most insane, least meaningful game in Tennessee football history,” comment). Then the Vols went 3-of-4 against Indiana State.

Then Tennessee scored zero touchdowns in three trips at Florida, and you know how that ended. And you know how the rest of the year ended: eight red zone touchdowns in nine trips the first two weeks, 11 red zone touchdowns in 26 trips the rest of the season. So doing it against South Carolina and Missouri is no guarantee. But it’s already much, much better than what the Vols did in the red zone last year.

An opening drive touchdown!

We looked at what the Vols had done on their first drive just before the South Carolina game. The results: very bad! Only one touchdown and only one field goal on the offense’s first drive last season, while the defense gave up six touchdowns and two field goals on their opening possessions.

Tennessee’s first strike against Missouri was just the second first-drive touchdown of the Jeremy Pruitt era, joining that BYU game from last season. It also meant the Vols won their sixth straight against the SEC East’s second tier, but finally did it without giving up the game’s first points, as they had the other five times.

Scoring a touchdown on the opening drive has been an issue for a while now. Against FBS competition, the Vols did it once in 2019, never in 2018, and only against lesser competition in 2017 (Southern Miss and Vanderbilt) and 2016 (Ohio and Vanderbilt). You have to go back to 2015 to find the offense really humming out of the gate, with five first-drive touchdowns (including a kickoff return and a first-drive touchdown against Arkansas…in a game we somehow still lost). It was just one drive, but the Vols are moving in the right direction.

Good News/Bad News of the Week

Good News: Tennessee is one of only five teams yet to turn the ball over this season (of 74 now to play at least one game).

Bad News: Tennessee is one of only seven teams yet to hit a 40+ yard play. The Vols finished 73rd in this stat last year with 13 40+ yard plays, one per game on average.

Tomorrow, it becomes about Georgia. That really starts tonight; Tennessee’s performance at noon today allows us to sit back and watch the Dawgs and Auburn at 7:30 PM and see what we can learn, seven days before the first measuring stick of this kind for Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols. I’m not sure there’s a bad outcome: an Auburn victory puts the Dawgs one back in the loss column in the SEC East race, while a Georgia win gives Tennessee a chance to knock off a Top 5 team for the first time since The Rally at Death Valley 15 years ago.

But while today’s outcome is still the present, for these next few hours, we should celebrate it as a bridge between what will soon become the past, and what could soon become Tennessee’s future.

Eight wins in a row, by itself, is a significant accomplishment. The Vols have only won eight in a row, appropriately, eight times in the last 35 years:

• 1986-97 (8): After a 2-5 start on the heels of the 1985 SEC Championship, the Vols won their last four, beat Minnesota in the Liberty Bowl, and started 1987 3-0 before tying Auburn.
• 1990-91 (8): Following a November 10 heartbreaker against #1 Notre Dame, the Vols secured their second straight SEC title with a 3-0 finish, beat Virginia in the Sugar Bowl, and opened the 1991 campaign 4-0.
• 2019-20 (8): Started 2-5 with a loss to Georgia State, finished 6-0 with the Gator Bowl, now 2-0 in the new year.
• 1997 (9): Between a loss to Florida and the drubbing from Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, the Vols won nine straight and the SEC title in Peyton Manning’s senior season.
• 1988-89 (10): Started 0-6, finished 5-0 in 1988, then started 5-0 in 1989 before falling to Alabama, the only blemish in an SEC title season.
• 1995-96 (11): Lost to Florida, then won the rest in 1995, finished off with the Citrus Bowl over #4 Ohio State and a #2 finish in the coaches’ poll. Started 1996 2-0 before losing to Florida again.
• 2015-16 (11): The best of times for Butch Jones: six straight after the loss to Alabama in 2015, a breathtaking 5-0 to open 2016.
• 1998-99 (14): After the loss to Nebraska to end the 1997 season, the ’98 Vols of course went 13-0 and won it all, then beat Wyoming to open the 1999 campaign before getting Alex Browned in The Swamp.

Tennessee is 2-0, not only avoiding the kind of disaster they courted at the start of last season, but putting some additional distance between themselves and the SEC East’s traditional second tier. Six of these eight straight victories have come against that group, and while the Vols dominated Missouri statistically last season, today was far more comfortable on the scoreboard.

A 23-point win is Tennessee’s best margin against Power Five competition since beating Missouri by 26 at the end of 2016. That it comes with room for improvement is even better. Connor Bazelak went for 218 yards on 10.4 yards per attempt, a day tainted by a disastrous fourth quarter interception. Tennessee’s quarterback came out firing and finished okay, 14-of-23 (60.9%) for 190 yards at 8.3 yards per attempt, one touchdown and another clean slate in turnovers. Brent Cimaglia missed a 39-yard field goal badly.

You take any win by any margin this year, and Tennessee now has eight of them in a row. Disaster avoided and consistency solidified, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols have moved from the lowest of lows to a clear step above the teams they’ve battled too often in the last decade. That’s a job well done.

And that’s about to be the past, as it should be.

In the future, Tennessee is now 2-0 with Arkansas and Vanderbilt left on the schedule. Take care of business there, and a 7-3 finish only requires splitting the other six. With bowls clearly back in play, even a 6-4 finish could still break the right way to get the Vols to Tampa or, who knows, maybe even Orlando, putting some proof in the very strange pudding of 2020. The progress we celebrate today is also more likely to feel like progress in January now.

That’s the future.

Tonight, tomorrow, and next week, the present levels up.

He’s yet to get in a game like this as Tennessee’s head coach, but Jeremy Pruitt knows the deal:

Jeremy Pruitt on if Tennessee can play with Georgia:

"Absolutely."

Then he added:

"That's why I came to Tennessee, to play in games like this."

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 3, 2020

The Vols took the long way around to games like this, but they’re here now behind eight straight wins and a mammoth offensive line. They’re here with enough talent to let a guy like Jaylin Hyatt get his feet wet instead of going headfirst into the fire. And they’re here with Jarrett Guarantano, who became Tennessee’s quarterback three very long years ago when the Vols were crushed 41-0 the last time they played in a game like this. By Georgia.

Tonight, tomorrow, and hopefully far beyond, that will be the present. Last year’s season and this year in general have taught us plenty about what you can do with assumptions, but a 2-0 start at least puts a solid, forward-progress future in play for this season.

Today, raise a glass to an eight-game winning streak and a 23-point win we can nitpick. This crew has done an exceptional job from where we were about a year ago today. They deserve our thanks and praise.

It all leads to the next, first opportunity. From the depths of Georgia State and BYU and everything else, Tennessee has won their way back to real opportunity.

Now we get to find out just how much it can be worth.

Go Vols.

In Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ ratings, we were surprised to see the Tennessee defense come in at sixth overall, with all 130 teams accounted for. But some of the biggest pieces of that puzzle – no big plays, get to the quarterback, force turnovers – were things the Vols did well last season. The question was, how would they perform in those areas without Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior?

Your mileage may vary on what we saw from the defense at South Carolina, playing without Shawn Shamburger (which appears to be the case again this week). But in those three areas, the Vols did quite well.

No big plays

How many big plays did South Carolina have?

It feels like a handful, right? But it depends on how you define it.

Tennessee allowed 17 plays of 10+ yards (stats via SportSource Analytics). Among teams who’ve played only one game, only eight teams gave up more. That’s not great.

But only five of those 17 plays became 20+ yard gains. Two of those came on the opening drive, attacking Shamburger’s absence right away. But surrendering five 20+ yard gains currently ranks the Vols 12th in the nation. It’ll be somewhat hard to make these kinds of comparisons this season, because the 2020 Vols don’t have Chattanooga on the schedule, but last year Tennessee gave up only 39 20+ yard gains on the season, three per contest, third nationally.

The best news: last year Tennessee led the nation in gains of 30+ yards allowed, giving up just 10 such plays. How many 30+ yard gains did South Carolina get?

Just one: a 42-yard gain on their first snap of the second half, immediately after the Vols took a 21-7 lead.

Of the 72 teams to play so far this year, only four – Arkansas, Baylor, North Carolina, and Texas A&M – haven’t given up a 30+ yard play. Tennessee is tied with four others, including Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky, in giving up just one. (That’s almost half the league.)

Is this bend but don’t break? Only if you don’t do the other things well.

Get to the quarterback

How would Tennessee pressure the opposing quarterback without Darrell Taylor? So far, so good: four sacks against the Gamecocks, a player-of-the-week showing from Deandre Johnson, and hope the Vols can continue to cause problems for the opponent the way they did last season. With 34 sacks in 2019, the Vols put up their best total in five years. Taylor had 8.5 of those, making his absence the defense’s biggest perceived issue. But it wasn’t a problem at South Carolina.

In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are 18-4 when recording at least four sacks. And one of those four losses is the 2015 Alabama game, the closest Tennessee came to beating Bama in the last ten years. Another is last year’s BYU game, which required extreme weirdness to end in defeat. And some of the most meaningful wins since Fulmer was on the sideline show up in those 18 victories: Mississippi State and Indiana last season, 2018 Kentucky (when Darrell Taylor got four sacks by himself), the blowout of Northwestern, and back-to-back wins over South Carolina in 2013 and 2014. Get the QB four times, and you’ve got an excellent chance of winning. That’s in part because getting to the quarterback is the best way to…

Create turnovers

Henry To’o To’o’s pick six was of obvious value. The punt fumble recovery sealed the game. And just as important here was the offense keeping a clean slate, giving the Vols a +2 turnover margin.

In the post-Fulmer era, Tennessee is 25-2 with at least a +2 turnover margin. And you have to get really weird to lose at +2:

• 2017 Kentucky, when the Vols went +4 but also kicked six field goals, made only four, and lost by three in the, “Okay, Butch Jones is definitely getting fired,” game.
• 2010 LSU, when the Vols again went +4 but lost after the clock struck zero.

And here again, you’ll find some of our greatest (recent) hits on this list: 2018 Auburn, 2017 Georgia Tech, the Battle at Bristol, the 2015 Outback Bowl, 2013 South Carolina, and both of Lane Kiffin’s signature wins over Georgia and South Carolina in 2009.

The defense, at this point, seems built to not give up big plays. But it’s not bend but don’t break. It’s bend ’til they break: if Tennessee keeps getting to the quarterback, forcing multiple turnovers, and playing a clean game on their end of things? The Vols can do a lot of winning led by a defense that will look strong all season.

Without Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, we prepared ourselves for two outcomes: the instant emergence of mythical freshman wide receivers, or more opportunities for Eric Gray and Ty Chandler in the passing game. It’s hard to use the word “exciting” when those new opportunities come at the expense of no longer having #15 and #1 out there, but both options felt full of possibility.

Instead, 16 of Jarrett Guarantano’s 19 completions at South Carolina went to veteran wide receivers.

It worked, so no complaints here, just an early observation.

Josh Palmer is one-for-one as the alpha: six catches, 85 yards, and the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. That’s a great sign. I thought Velus Jones played a role similar to the way the Vols used Von Pearson a few years ago, finishing with five catches and 29 yards, unable to fully break free but with plenty of opportunity ahead, it seems. Brandon Johnson had the best catch of the night, finishing with three for 73. And Ramel Keyton was targeted more often than his two catches for 20 yards.

It’s early, and it’s weird with the virus. But none of the freshmen got involved in the passing game in week one, and Tennessee’s failures on third down didn’t allow enough distance between the Vols and Gamecocks to get them some snaps with Tennessee holding a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, what we saw from the running backs in the passing game was…basically what we saw from the running backs in the passing game last year. Eric Gray got 31 yards on the ol’ flea flicker check down. Ty Chandler had one catch for 10 yards. And that’s it.

Last year Jennings, Callaway, and Palmer were a formidable trio: 123 catches between them, 61.5% of Tennessee’s total on the year by themselves. Dominick Wood-Anderson added 21 catches at tight end. And the backs? Gray and Chandler each finished with 13, or one per game…which is what they got Saturday. Tim Jordan had six catches in a dozen appearances.

The difference between Pruitt’s Vols and what we saw in Butch Jones’ five years can still feel a bit jarring in this department, considering the running back was an essential part of the passing game from 2013-17:

Season	RB	Catches	Team Rank
2017	John Kelly	37	T-1st
2016	Alvin Kamara	40	T-2nd
2015	Alvin Kamara	34	2nd
2014	Jalen Hurd	35	3rd
2013	Rajion Neal	27	3rd

Tennessee’s secondary pass-catching RBs got the same kind of work in Jones’ offense that Gray and Chandler saw last year and last week: Marlin Lane had 11 catches in 2014, Jalen Hurd 22 in 2015 and 10 in his shortened 2016 campaign, Ty Chandler 10 in 2017.

Again, the Vols won and I thought Guarantano had one of his best starts. But I’ll be curious to see if the freshmen can get involved at receiver, and if Tennessee looks to Gray and Chandler more often. So far, it continues to be the preference of both the staff and the quarterback to throw the ball to receivers downfield far more often than not, even without Jennings and Callaway out there. If that continues to work, all this will go from curiosity to real strength. And it’s also nice to feel like the Vols have real options in the passing game we haven’t even seen yet.

1-0! Feels good!

Don’t take a seven game winning streak for granted

The historical benchmarks for a Tennessee team looking for success typically go, “Since 2015-16, since 2007, since 2004, since 2001, since 1998.” Seven wins in a row? Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols join 2015-16 as the only team(s) to accomplish that since 2001. And this is just the 10th seven game winning streak for the Vols in the last 35 years:

• 7 in a row: 1985-86, 2001, 2019-20
• 8: 1986-87, 1990-91
• 9: 1997
• 10: 1988-99
• 11: 1995-96, 2015-16
• 14: 1998-99

Tennessee will be an underdog at Georgia in two weeks, but could become the just eighth Vol group since 1985 with an eight game winning streak if they beat Missouri on Saturday.

How hard is it to win at 1-of-11 on third down?

At least in Tennessee’s own history, it’s so unusual it’s hard to find a good comparison; as we noted in the postgame last night, usually that kind of performance gets you beat by 30+ points.

Four years ago, the Vols beat Kentucky with just one third down conversion…but they only had five attempts all game, that November offense running at its best-in-the-nation rate. If you’re looking for victory, I can find only two other candidates: a 2-of-15 slog when the Vols almost lost to UAB in Derek Dooley’s first season, and a 3-of-14 performance against, you guessed it, South Carolina in the black jerseys the year before. Consider how much more the Vols could’ve won that game by…which is a sentence I’d like to entertain for this year’s team as well.

All that to say: going 1-of-11 on third down is unusual by itself, and beating an SEC team on the road while you do it is downright stupid, which fits this year quite nicely, thanks.

Where does last night rank for Jarrett Guarantano?

National stats are kind of worthless with only 72 teams having taken a snap so far. Guarantano’s 259 yards ranks 18th nationally as a ypg average at the moment, but obviously wouldn’t finish there. The best comparison for JG right now is Past JG.

Tennessee’s quarterback has a pair of games on his resume that will be fairly difficult to top:

• 2018 Auburn: 21-of-32 (65.6%) for 328 yards (10.3 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as a two-touchdown underdog
• 2019 Missouri: 23-of-40 (57.5%) for 415 yards (10.4 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as only the third Vol QB to throw for 400+

Unless JG goes off in one of our biggest games this season, he’s unlikely to turn heads in the same way he did at Auburn. And I’m all for him throwing for 400+ again, it’s just highly unusual around here.

But after those two games? Guarantano played really well off the bench against South Carolina last year (11-of-19 for 229) and had similar numbers in the 2018 win over Kentucky (12-of-20 for 197). But among games he started, I think yesterday was his third best performance as a Vol: 19-of-31 for 259 with a TD, a rushing TD, and no picks, with the game-winning touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. It clearly could’ve been better, though some percentage of that responsibility belongs to not having Jennings and Callaway out there. But compared to JG’s past, I thought it was solid.

Tennessee was 1-of-11 on third down. Last year the Vols had at least four third down conversions in every game. In 2018 Tennessee was 2-of-10 against Missouri. You have to go back to the worst season, record wise, in school history in 2017, against the best competition: 1-of-12 against Georgia, 1-of-12 against Alabama. Tennessee lost those games by 41, 38, and 33 to Missouri.

Tennessee won tonight.

There was clear improvement in the offense’s every-down consistency: in the first half Tennessee didn’t face anything longer than 3rd-and-6. The Vols stayed out of trouble, but couldn’t make nearly as much as they could have for South Carolina.

It goes in the books as a decently clean game offensively: 394 yards in 65 plays at just over six yards per play, and no turnovers. Jarrett Guarantano had his moments, good and bad, but never let a ball go that put Tennessee in danger. He hit a big deep ball to Josh Palmer (six catches, 85 yards) to put the Vols in front 31-24, and connected with seven different targets a year after losing his biggest two.

It was Jauan Jennings’ absence that was felt the most on third down:

Jauan Jennings on third down last year:

366 yards (fifth nationally)
19 catches (18th nationally)
18 first downs (fifth nationally)

This is where we miss him most.

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) September 27, 2020

Guarantano took two first half sacks on third down and missed some open receivers. Jim Chaney kept going back to him; Tennessee’s ground game was similarly clean if not spectacular. But the Vols simply couldn’t connect to extend drives.

And that kept South Carolina alive deep into the night. Tennessee’s defense dominated early after surrendering an opening touchdown. But the Gamecocks and Mike Bobo adjusted well, opening the third quarter with two touchdowns, an inches-short conversion attempt on an end around, and a field goal to tie the game 24-24.

When Guarantano and Palmer put the Vols back in front with less than ten minutes to play, the defense got two big plays the rest of the way home. Bryce Thompson blew up a screen on South Carolina’s next offensive snap, ending their next drive immediately. And with the Gamecocks driving the next time down, a false start penalty forced a 1st-and-15 at the 31 yard line, and they found no traction from there, settling for a field goal to cut it to 31-27.

They would get one more chance, of course. But then this year kind of kept happening to South Carolina, while the Vols got a momentary escape: a rugby-style punt from Paxton Brooks bounced into a South Carolina player and into the willing arms of Jimmy Holiday, and the Vols get the victory.

#Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt: I’ll be honest, I knew we weren’t ready to play great tonight. We played better than I thought we would at times, but we didn’t sustain it. But we found a way to win.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) September 27, 2020

Will it get prettier from here? Jauan Jennings isn’t walking through that door, but Guarantano will get more reps with guys like Brandon Johnson, who had a huge catch on Tennessee’s only third down conversion early in the night, as well as all the newcomers. The Vols didn’t have Shawn Shamburger in the secondary tonight and gave up 10 catches and 140 yards to Shi Smith; it felt like 97% of Carolina’s offense came on a slant route.

And yet it’s kind of fitting for this year that in something so unique and horrendous like 1-of-11 on third down, our team still found a way to win. There are no bad wins in a 10-game SEC schedule. Tennessee gets to 1-0 with Missouri coming to Knoxville next week. Consistency can come if the virus allows it. But the Vols – now winners of seven straight overall – used some of what they learned last year and just enough of everything else to get a road win tonight anyway.

Getting any football would’ve been a gift. We got 1-0.

Go Vols.

Two bits of good news this week: the Pac-12 is back, giving as full a meaning and purpose to our college football institutions as is available in 2020. The College Football Playoff will select from a full field, though they’ll now have the unenviable task of picking four teams from (at least) five conferences that didn’t play the same number of games. ESPN’s FPI currently projects conference championship games that include something like 10-1 Clemson vs 9-2 Notre Dame, 9-1 Alabama vs 8-2 Georgia, 9-1 Texas vs 8-2 Oklahoma, and 7-1 Ohio State vs 7-1 Wisconsin. In such a mess, I’m not sure any team that doesn’t win its division would have enough of an argument to get in, but I’m sure that won’t stop anyone from trying.

The Pac-12’s return also puts the polls in their proper historical context. Tennessee is ranked 16th in the AP poll, which doesn’t include Big Ten/Pac-12 teams, and 21st in the coaches’ poll, which doesn’t include the Pac-12. It’s probably most helpful to think of the Vols at #25, their preseason ranking, and go from there. But at least the final polls will include the all the major options.

Those final polls are one way to measure a season that will surely need some additional data than the final record. 6-4 will be worth much more than it normally would with everyone playing a more difficult schedule. And you could also have a host of teams with the same record, all a little unsure how to feel about it. So that’s where the second bit of good news this week comes in: not only does it appear we’re still getting bowl games this year, but everyone is eligible. Taken out by the virus at 3-7? Welcome to Shreveport, baby!

We all deserve a participation ribbon this year; I’ve got no problem with it. But more to the point, the possibility of a bowl trip we’d normally be excited about, even if it’s light on the trip portion this year, can help validate a good result for Tennessee.

2020 SEC win total odds, per SP+

* The "8-2 SEC team vs. 7-1 B1G team" debate is gonna be fascinating (and loud)
* I'm back so hard on the LSU bandwagon that their win odds seem REALLY low to me
* MSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss & SC = 4-way pointing Spiderman meme
* oof, Vandy pic.twitter.com/mFqueEi8s5

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 22, 2020

If everybody hit their most likely outcome, the SEC would finish like this:

SEC East

1. Florida/Georgia winner at 8-2
2. Florida/Georgia loser at 8-2
3. Tennessee/Kentucky winner at 5-5
4. Tennessee/Kentucky loser at 5-5
5. South Carolina 4-6
6. Missouri 3-7
7. Vanderbilt 0-10

SEC West

1. Alabama 8-2
2. Texas A&M 7-3
3. Auburn/LSU winner at 6-4
4. Auburn/LSU loser at 6-4
5. Ole Miss 4-6
6. Mississippi State 3-7
7. Arkansas 1-9

Let’s assume the SEC Champion is making the playoff either way, even with two losses. In this scenario, we might find the loser in Atlanta and the second place SEC East team also making the New Year’s Six. If the traditional structure holds, 7-3 Texas A&M would be the Citrus Bowl pick, and the 5-5 Vols would find themselves in the group of six bowls, with Nashville the most likely destination.

But if the Vols got to 6-4, they might find themselves a prime candidate for the Outback Bowl. A 6-4 season that ended with a shot at, say, Michigan in what would join our 2015 (and 2006, and 2007) Tampa appearance as Tennessee’s most prestigious bowl destination since 2004? That would give some extra juice to 6-4.

In a year when final record will be a terrible way to compare teams from one conference to another but a much better way to compare teams from the same conference, every win could make a big difference come bowl time. Our best benchmarks for forward progress this year remain:

1. Having a real chance to win every single Saturday
2. Staying in the SEC East race deep into the season

But if Tampa (or Orlando!) is out there as a reasonable destination? Everyone deserves the participation ribbon, but the Outback or Citrus Bowl would be an excellent exclamation point for Tennessee this year, and they could get there at 6-4 or better.

Last year, before kickoff, it was, “It’s nice to play a cupcake for a change!” So lesson one: whatever we say, say it very carefully.

Georgia State was supposed to be the first easy Week 1 opponent for the Vols since Butch Jones’ debut against Austin Peay in 2013. If there’s any good news in that, it’s that we’re used to a challenge right away, expected or otherwise. That means a job well done in week one is incredibly rewarding…and incredibly difficult to come by.

That incredibly rewarding feeling? We’ve only seen it once on opening weekend in these last six years. On a Sunday night in Neyland, Tennessee scored on its second drive against Utah State, recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, and scored again on the very next play. The Vols routed Chukie Keeton and the Aggies 38-7 behind a solid 27-of-38 for 273 and three touchdowns from Justin Worley. It’s not that you thought the Vols were going to win it all after that one, and it’s not that Tennessee didn’t disappoint mightily against Florida a month later. But a good first impression, especially in unusual times, is valuable beyond fan expectations. And since 2014, week one has gone differently:

• 2015: This Kamara kid might be the real deal, but will we ever stop a go route again? Did we really give up 557 yards to Bowling Green?
• 2016: Never schedule Appalachian State. Ever. Never ever.
• 2017: Well, we gave up 655 yards to Georgia Tech, but we won woooooooooooooooooooooo (what a spectacularly insane football game that ultimately amounted to nothing).
• 2018: Hmm, so not having Butch Jones out there didn’t automatically make us good enough to beat West Virginia. Okay.
• 2019: (Fulmerized)

How often does the first impression stick? The 2015 Vols did indeed stop a go route, and ended up coming closer to the promised land than any other team post-Fulmer. The warning signs from 2016, 2017, and 2018 turned out to be true. And the story of last season was about Georgia State, then about how they were able to make it not about Georgia State, and give this season a chance to make us remember it again as a starting point for something much bigger than 8-5.

If future schedules hold, the Vols will open 2021 with Bowling Green and 2022 with Ball State before traveling to Provo to open 2023. So maybe this is a temporary issue. But for the next 11 weeks, the only break is the bye week. This will be an entirely new experience for all of us, not only watching Tennessee but watching Georgia and Florida have real opportunities to lose almost every Saturday. Much like conference play in basketball, every win is a good win. So if we get a grumpy win, we’ll take it and move on to Missouri. We’ll take one every Saturday in the chase for the SEC East.

But man…wouldn’t it be fun to get off to a good start?

Go Vols.

Even for a team on a six-game winning streak, little came easy for Tennessee last year. In the Vols’ four-game sweep of the SEC East’s second tier (South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt) – our first such sweep since 2015 – Tennessee had to come from behind in all four games.

That’s because the Vols struggled mightily on the game’s opening drive, on both sides of the ball.

Take out the win over Chattanooga, and in a dozen FBS contests last year, Tennessee’s opening drives ended this way:

2019 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 3
• Turnover: 3
• Touchdown: 1
• Field Goal: 1

The lone touchdown: 15 plays, 80 yards against BYU, ending on a batted ball fourth down conversion in the end zone. The lone field goal came after intercepting UAB on the game’s first play, then only advancing the ball a single yard from the 19 in three plays.

The defense? Well, they didn’t help each other out:

2019 DEFENSE

• Touchdown: 6
• Field Goal: 2
• Turnover: 2
• Three-and-out: 1
• Punt: 1

The Vols gave up six on the opening drive against Georgia State (short field), Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina (first play), and Kentucky. Especially when you’re looking for the upset, that’s not the way you want to get started.

So this made me curious: is this a pattern?

Different coordinators, but here’s what the Vols did on the opening drive in 2018 against FBS competition:

2018 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 4
• Turnover: 2
• Field Goal: 1

In Jeremy Pruitt’s two seasons and 23 contests against FBS foes, the Vols have scored a touchdown on the opening drive once, and scored points only three times. Of those three scores, a field goal at Auburn in 2018 was the only one against a Power 5 opponent.

The defense in Pruitt’s first year:

2018 DEFENSE

• Punt: 4
• Touchdown: 3
• Field Goal: 2
• Three-and-out: 2

So better than their 2019 counterparts, but still surrendered points on 45% of the opponent’s opening drives. In Pruitt’s 23 FBS games, the Vols have scored on the opening drive three times, and allowed points on the opening drive 13 times. Simply put: the Vols have to start faster. Play from behind for so long and you can only expect so much success.

I was curious about Jim Chaney here too, and was a little alarmed when I ran the 2012 numbers for Tennessee (all via ESPN.com’s play-by-play data). Even the vaunted Bray-Hunter-CP offense scored just three times on their opening drives, though they were all touchdowns. Those Vols went three-and-out four times, punted twice, and turned it over twice.

But Chaney’s run at Georgia ended with far more success. In his last year at Georgia in 2018, Chaney’s offense scored a touchdown on the opening drive six times in 13 FBS games, plus two field goals. Those dudes were not messing around and almost never played from behind.

Tennessee probably isn’t good enough to jump on everyone they play this fall. But even if they’re better than last year, you can’t keep falling behind and expect it not to cost you. The Vols got away with it at the end of last season against the SEC East. But a faster start in 2020 could lead to more breathing room at the end, setting an initial tone the Vols have struggled to establish going back to the Butch Jones years. I’ll be curious to see how they come out of the gate on Saturday night.

“Less.” Let’s start there.

The college football I’ve seen sounds more like its high school equivalent, but that still sounds more daunting than bubbles and empty arenas. The notion of home court advantage has been obliterated in the NBA Playoffs; the traditional road team has won 12 games in a row in contests featuring the Boston Celtics, for instance. In SP+ projections, home field advantage is now worth just a single point.

For Tennessee and South Carolina? Home field has been worth quite a bit.

In Knoxville, the Vols have won five of the last seven, and 2019’s 20-point margin of victory was the largest in the series since 2008. In Columbia, South Carolina has won five of the last six, and the Vols needed the miraculous to get that one in 2014.

Even as Tennessee’s program struggled and South Carolina’s ascended in the last decade, the games have always been close in Columbia: Tyler Bray’s debut against the eventual East champions in 2010, Derek Dooley’s last chance against an equally good Carolina team in 2012, both coming up just short in the fourth quarter. After Dobbs’ comeback in 2014, the Gamecocks pulled the shocking upset as a two-touchdown underdog to derail the 2016 season two years later. And two years ago, Jeremy Pruitt’s first team had a 21-9 lead after the opening drive of the third quarter, but gave up two touchdowns and a field goal on South Carolina’s next three drives for a 27-24 loss.

Tennessee’s luck in Columbia as opposed to the other second-tier SEC East foes:

Vols on the road since 2008:

Opponent	W	L
South Carolina	1	5
Kentucky	4	2
Missouri	2	2
Vanderbilt	3	3

Before the Vols blew last year’s game open, games in this series from 2012-18 were decided by three, two, three in overtime, three, three, six at the one yard line, and three. It may be easy for Tennessee fans to still hold onto notions of who South Carolina isn’t. Likewise, it may be easy for South Carolina fans to still hold onto notions of who the Vols still aren’t. Either way, the history here suggests something very close…and home field being worth even a little less is good news for Tennessee in this series.