Author Archives: Will Shelton

The thing I keep coming back to most often – “Georgia’s defense is the best in the country” – is, of course, the most hopeful scenario. So maybe don’t trust it yet; trust it a lot if it shows up well against Alabama, which has the best offense in the country. Stay tuned next week when we get to try to solve that problem.

But by the end of the year, that’s the hope: Georgia’s defense is, in fact, not just the best in the nation, but the best we’ve seen in a while.

The last time we saw anything better, via SP+, was 2017 Alabama. (Mis)matched against the anemic Vol offense in Butch Jones’ final season, Tennessee went for 108 total yards at 2.35 yards per play, and zero offensive points. Before then, the last time Tennessee saw a defense who ended up in that neighborhood was 2012 Florida, Will Muschamp’s eventual Sugar Bowl team. The high-powered Vol offense scored 20 points, but had just 4.72 yards per play, their lowest total of the year before imploding at Vanderbilt.

The 2012 Gators ended the year at 6.6 (points allowed vs the average offense) in defensive SP+. 2017 Alabama finished at 5.6. Georgia was at 6.2 before playing the Vols, actually coming down a bit to 7.1.

The Vols gained 214 yards on Georgia last week at 3.40 yards per play. That’s clearly not going to get it done against an elite team, and is just as indicative of the outcome as turning the ball over three times in the second half.

As a result, Tennessee’s defense faced 77 plays, its second-highest total in the last two years. The Vols allowed 44 points (37 for Georgia’s offense), got hurt over the middle, and don’t come out of Athens carrying a world of confidence.

But when you put all the numbers on the table this season, and consider what’s happening around the rest of the league? Pick whichever one makes you feel best, because they both might still be true after the Georgia game:

• Tennessee might have the second best defense in the SEC
• Tennessee might have its best defense in 10+ years

In SP+, both are true right now. Georgia’s otherworldly defense leads the nation at 7.1 in SP+; Ohio State is number two at 14.1, a full seven points behind. The field gets more crowded from there, but among SEC defenses after three weeks and plenty of points:

Team	SP+ Defense	National Rank
Georgia	7.1	1
Tennessee	17.3	13
Auburn	18	18
Florida	19.4	20
Alabama	19.8	22
South Carolina	19.9	23
Missouri	20.5	27
Kentucky	21.2	28
Texas A&M	21.6	29
LSU	22.5	37
Arkansas	26.3	58
Ole Miss	27.7	65
Vanderbilt	27.8	66
Mississippi St	27.9	67

Tennessee’s defensive rating of 17.3 is a hair ahead of last season’s 17.4, spurred on by a fantastic defensive effort in the six-game winning streak to close 2019. That rating was Tennessee’s best of the decade, which isn’t overly shocking; the 2015 Vol defense came closest at 17.8. What is more shocking is the size of the gap between where the Vols are now and where we’ve been in the last few years:

Season	SP+ Defense
2009	15.5
2020	17.3
2019	17.4
2015	17.8
2011	18.8
2014	19.9
2010	23.6
2016	25.2
2017	25.7
2013	26.1
2012	28.3
2018	28.9

In the post-Fulmer era, only Monte Kiffin’s 2009 unit faired better than last year, and this year’s potential. And, in the spirit of having a chance to win every week, that’s a group – 2015, 2019, 2009 – you want to be in. Much better than the company Tennessee’s defense kept in 2016-18.

So maybe we’re not ready to think of the 2020 Vol defense as elite, or even “very good”. But if the numbers hold weight, they’ll play their way into at least that second category.

Which brings us to Kentucky.

Fresh off gaining 157 total yards at 2.96 yards per play against Mississippi State – six interceptions, 24 points – the Cats head to Knoxville. Last year Kentucky scored 13 points against us, seven the year before that. In winning four straight after losing to us in 2019, Kentucky scored 38, 50, 45, and 37 points. In winning three straight after losing to us in 2018, Kentucky scored 34, 56, and 27. Jeremy Pruitt’s defense has done some of its very best work against Kentucky.

Tennessee’s offense has its own demons to exorcise, and I’m not sure how much of that will take place the next two weeks. But if Tennessee’s defense is simply as good as statistically and historically advertised? They can carry the day against a team like Kentucky. And along the way, might start getting a little more credit and higher expectations.

Throughout the off-season and especially with a 10-game SEC schedule, we’ve talked about Tennessee’s final record being a less reliable indicator of progress this year. Instead, how about, “Do we have a chance to win every week?”

Did Tennessee have a chance to win today? Not when it turns the ball over three times in the second half. Not against Georgia.

It might be tempting to cut this game in half, but we need the data from all four quarters. For a time, Tennessee was wearing out the underdog playbook: defensive touchdown, make them kick field goals, a pair of fourth down stops. It felt like the kind of game Georgia might regret.

But then, Georgia wore Tennessee out. Literally: the Dawgs snapped it 77 times, the Vols 63, with a dozen of those on the final drive. The Vol defense, heroic deep into the afternoon, was asked to do far too much too often. And Georgia, despite running a less efficient version of it early, got to play their game: limit turnovers, lean on you offensively, and let that defense do the damage.

All of these things are true at the same time:

• Georgia might have the best defense in the country. They do in SP+, by a significant margin, and that may only grow next week.
• Tennessee’s offensive line got a reality check. I’ll be curious to see where they go from here, but their ceiling was not as high as it needed to be to beat Georgia, plain and simple. Ty Chandler and Eric Gray ran 16 times for 36 yards (2.25 per carry).
• Tennessee’s passing game shares the blame. It includes Jarrett Guarantano, but is not his exclusively. JG was sensational in the first half, then self-destructive on Tennessee’s first two turnovers in the second. On the third, I’m not sure what he’s supposed to do when the backs fail to pick up the blitz like that. Guarantano was part of the problem, but there’s plenty of blame to go around.

How many of those problems will show up when we’re not playing Georgia? Ask Alabama in two weeks.

I said on the radio on Friday that it felt like these Vols skipped a step: all that winning to get back to a game like this, but now you’re playing it at #3 Georgia instead of against, say, #21 Texas A&M or #13 Auburn. Those chances will come. We’ll see if the full picture of this team will still look like progress; that starts with Kentucky next week, and will still include plenty of chances for meaningful wins. If Georgia falls at Alabama next week, the Vols can still hang out in the SEC East conversation, thanks in part to Texas A&M’s win today.

We’ve mentioned this stat a bunch, and it’s painfully worth repeating: since 2001, only the 2015 Vols haven’t lost a three-possession game. Those typically come from being too far behind in talent. That’s true with Georgia; credit Tennessee, particularly its defense, for giving itself a chance for a long time today. But when those chances ran out, Georgia ran by us again.

Progress is not a straight line, though we thought it might look that way for a minute or two today. We’ll see what it looks like next week.

That photo is from three years ago, the last time Tennessee played in a game like this. Georgia came in ranked seventh, the Vols out of the poll after their hail mary loss at Florida. The Dawgs came out on the other side of a 41-0 victory in the top five, and ended the year a breath away from a national championship. Tennessee left that day knowing the program had probably climbed as high as it would climb under Butch Jones, not yet knowing how swiftly or how far it would fall from there.

It was also the day Jarrett Guarantano became Tennessee’s best option at quarterback, taking over for Quinten Dormady in the third quarter with the Vols down 31-0. Tomorrow will be the 35th game Guarantano has played in at Tennessee. He is eighth on Tennessee’s all-time passing list, and will pass Jeff Francis sometime this month if he stays healthy, leaving a string of last-name-only quarterbacks in front of him: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Bray, Dobbs, Kelly.

But Jarrett Guarantano has never played in a game like this. There’s a fullness to the circle that it’s Georgia tomorrow.

To be sure, Guarantano has played elite teams; to be Tennessee’s quarterback is to see them on the schedule every year. And he’s gotten it done as the two-touchdown underdog, his performance at Auburn two years ago maybe his best. That Auburn was not this Georgia. But those Vols were not this Tennessee.

Stetson Bennett has played in a game like this, because he just did it last week. And he gave exactly the kind of performance Georgia wants while riding its elite defense: 17-of-28 (60.7%) for 240 yards (8.6 ypa), one touchdown, no interceptions. Nothing spectacular, everything solid.

This kid is still a mystery, and some percentage of Tennessee’s best chance to win is in revealing it, and discovering Stetson Bennett IV is some percentage of Joe Tereshinski III. Tereshinski was a good story until he went 12-of-20 for 164 yards with two picks against the Vols, the last time Tennessee beat a Top 10 team all of 14 years ago. Good stories have a way of being replaced by great talent in this league; Matthew Stafford had the offense not long after.

There’s some historical harmony for Tennessee on the table tomorrow. The Vols have beaten 11 ranked teams since that 2006 game in Athens, including a handful of almost-Top-10 opponents: #12 Georgia the following year, which went on to finish #2. #11 South Carolina in 2013. #12 Kentucky in Pruitt’s first season. But a win tomorrow would be Tennessee’s first Top 10 victory since #10 Georgia in 2006, its first Top 5 win since #4 LSU the year before, and its highest win over a ranked foe since #3 Georgia the year before that.

Since 1985, Tennessee’s wins against the top five:

• 1985 #1 Auburn
• 1985 #2 Miami
• 1989 #4 Auburn
• 1991 #5 Notre Dame
• 1992 #4 Florida
• 1995 #4 Ohio State
• 1998 #2 Florida
• 1998 #2 Florida State
• 2001 #2 Florida
• 2004 #3 Georgia
• 2005 #4 LSU

That’s eleven Top 5 wins in 35 years, none in the last 15 years. And only six Top 3 wins in 35 years.

This is the first time Tennessee has played in a game like this in three years, which makes us all kinds of eager. Understand how rarified the air of victory would be.

How do we get there? Two years ago the Vols punted on each of their five first half drives, down 17-0 at the break at #2 Georgia. The Dawgs opened the second half with a 10-play, 75-yard drive to make it 24-0. Tennessee, to their credit and Jeremy Pruitt’s delight, had some fight in them: the Vols responded with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in kind, then made Georgia punt twice in a row before responding with another score to make it 24-12 with 11 minutes to play. The Dawgs did their thing: 13 plays, 75 yards, converting three third downs but none longer than 3rd-and-4. Then Tennessee fumbled on its next snap, adding one on in a 38-12 Georgia win.

Last year with Brian Maurer at the helm, the Vols fell behind 7-0 before hitting a big play to Marquez Callaway to tie it, then took the lead on a 10-play drive, ending on the first snap of the second quarter. They held Georgia to three again, then traded punts for three series before the Dawgs scored again to take a 20-14 lead. Brent Cimaglia missed a 47-yard field goal with a minute to play in the second quarter, and Georgia pounced with a quick-strike touchdown to make it 26-14 instead of 20-17.

Tennessee’s defense actually held it at two possessions longer than I remembered: Georgia’s first three second half drives produced a three-and-out, field goal, and turnover on downs. But the offense got no traction, with Maurer throwing a costly first down pick at midfield with four minutes left in the third quarter. Georgia put on another 10-play, 75-yard drive in the fourth, then another late fumble pushed the margin to 43-14.

Tennessee’s defense is built around denying big plays: best in the nation in not giving up 30+ yard plays last year, tied for 10th in that stat so far this year. Georgia’s offense has been good enough to play that game and win it against the Vols.

Their touchdown drives against Jeremy Pruitt’s defense the last two years:

• 8 plays, 86 yards
• 12 plays, 70 yards
• 10 plays, 75 yards
• 13 plays, 75 yards
• 2 plays, 31 yards (late fumble 2018)
• 12 plays, 84 yards
• 6 plays, 60 yards
• 5 plays, 70 yards (final minute of first half 2019)
• 10 plays, 75 yards

When they had to have it in a hurry before halftime last season, they got it. Otherwise they’ve grinded the Vols down with third down efficiency: 8-of-14 in 2018, 5-of-11 last year.

And they don’t turn it over, and don’t take sacks: Darrell Taylor got them three times by himself in 2018, but no one touched Jake Fromm last season. Stetson Bennett was sacked once last week. It’s not much different from what Tennessee wants to get from Jarrett Guarantano, only with a more elite defense behind it.

Can Tennessee’s defense make up that difference? The Vols don’t have the talent advantage to simply beat Georgia playing Georgia’s game. So much hype, and rightfully so on both sides, is on Tennessee’s offensive line vs. Georgia’s defense. But I think the biggest way the Vols can impact this game is with their defense vs Stetson Bennett. Those magic numbers again: for all the flaws of the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are 18-4 since 2009 when they get at least four sacks, 25-2 with a +2 turnover margin.

Can Tennessee’s defense impact this game the way Auburn’s couldn’t? Can they force Georgia off their schedule and put more of the game on Bennett’s shoulders? Because that’s a trade I’d take with Guarantano, the one experience advantage the Vols have in this fight beyond offensive line: our quarterback has never played in a game like this, but might have more big third down throws under his belt than any quarterback in the nation.

Tennessee is going to need some. Can they make Georgia need some too?

It’s #3 Georgia and #14 Tennessee in the 3:30 CBS slot on Saturday. That number next to Tennessee’s name may still look a little new; the Vols haven’t been in the Top 15 since 2016, and not before then since 2007. It’s true the poll is a bit sideways these days: any team can be ranked, and Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon are all north of the Vols while yet to take the field. Wisconsin and Michigan are behind us; maybe they’d be ahead if we all started on the same day, maybe not.

But Tennessee’s case as a Top 15 team is built on both its eight game winning streak, now tied with Notre Dame for the nation’s longest among the power five, and the way we arrived at wins seven and eight. The Vols are 22nd overall in SP+, but their 13.6 (points better than an average team on a neutral field) rating is just barely behind a bunch of teams just in front of them. Auburn is 15th in SP+ at 14.9, making that game a virtual pick-’em if played in Knoxville.

The number might look strange, but Tennessee has a legitimate argument as a Top 15 team right now. The bigger issue long-term is what Tennessee will do when it gets in a game like this one Saturday.

During the offseason, we looked at Tennessee’s recent history in SP+ and grouped the last 15 years in tiers. At 13.6 in SP+ through two weeks, the 2020 Vols aren’t yet on the “competing for championships” level, last seen in 2015 and in 2006-07 before that. A lot can change there on Saturday. But for now, Tennessee finds itself firmly in the “we have a chance to win this game” tier, similar to what we saw from the 2009, 2012, and 2016 Vols.

We got wildly different outcomes from those groups, who each came into the year with wildly different expectations. But the common thread in Lane Kiffin’s year, Derek Dooley’s year three, and Butch Jones’ year four: you went into and came out of almost every game believing Tennessee had a real chance to win.

Case in point: here’s #3 Georgia, who looked as monstrous as they’ve ever looked under Kirby Smart last Saturday. Via covers.com, last year Tennessee was a 24-point underdog in this game, 30.5 in Athens the year before that. But right now, the Vols are only +13.5. In SP+, the Vols are +12 on a neutral field.

This game is the kind of opportunity we haven’t seen since Kirby and the Dawgs took control in this rivalry three years ago, effectively ending Tennessee’s chances to ascend any further under Butch Jones. It’s been long enough, and it was hard enough getting back here, that I’m taking this thing as all opportunity on Saturday. And not the house money kind, the “we have a chance to win this game,” kind. So now isn’t the time to get into the value of just keeping it close with a late score in garbage time.

But as a measuring stick for the entire season, we’ve long viewed every-week competitiveness as a great benchmark. Since 1998, the 2015 Vols are the only team without a two-possession loss. Since 2001, the 2015 Vols are the only team without a three-possession loss.

I don’t know if we’re ready to beat Georgia; statistically we’re not on par with 2015 just yet either. But are we ready to truly compete? Are we ready to have a real chance to win?

Enjoy the week. This is just the eighth ranked vs ranked game the Vols have played in the last 13 years. And half of those came on consecutive Saturdays in 2016. Other than that stretch, the list is 2012 Florida, 2015 Oklahoma, 2017 Florida, and this week. Eight opportunities like this in 13 years. The Vols played 10 such games in 2006-07 alone.

We took the long way around getting back here, more than once. Getting to a game like this is an accomplishment. Having a chance to win it is the next step.

I don’t know if we’ll beat Georgia. But for the first time in the Jeremy Pruitt era, I believe we have an actual, real live chance. And I can’t wait to find out what we do with it.

Go Vols.

There are plenty of statistical talking points behind what Georgia did to Auburn last night; we’ll get to that. For now, let’s talk about what Tennessee is doing unusually well:

Have the Vols ever had four fourth down conversions in a single game?

I can’t find this record in Tennessee’s media guide. What I do know about yesterday is it’s the first time the Vols had four fourth down conversions in the same game in at least the last 11 years (also known as the post-Fulmer era), which is as far back as the data goes from SportSource Analytics.

What’s more: four fourth down conversions represent more than Tennessee had in three of the last four seasons: 2-for-12 last year, 3-for-10 in 2017, 2-for-9 in 2016.

#Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt on being 4-of-4 in fourth-downs offensively today: We’re not gonna have fear here. We’re not gonna play with fear, and we’re not gonna coach with fear.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) October 3, 2020

So far into 2020 #CFB season, the @Vol_Football off is doing a great job of making Bill Walsh proud by moving chains on 1st & 2nd down. Just 15% (7) of the #Vols 47 first downs have come on 3rd down plays & just 18% of their overall plays have been 3rd down. Great sign for Vol’s.

— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) October 4, 2020

That 1-of-11 performance against South Carolina will hang out in our stats for a while. But 6-of-13 against Missouri on third down got the job done, and positions Tennessee nicely as an efficient offense. Third down success is no guarantee – Kentucky leads the nation at 60% and is 0-2 – but the Vols, so far, have done a good job on first and second down, did a much better job on third down yesterday, and are indeed playing without fear on fourth down.

Making the biggest difference in the red zone

Much maligned and rightfully so, the 2019 Vols scored touchdowns on less than half of their red zone possessions, finishing 112th nationally in that stat. This year, through two weeks: nine trips, seven touchdowns, one field goal, one victory formation.

We’ve been led astray early here before: in 2017, the Vols scored five touchdowns in five red zone trips against Georgia Tech (obligatory, “That might’ve been the most insane, least meaningful game in Tennessee football history,” comment). Then the Vols went 3-of-4 against Indiana State.

Then Tennessee scored zero touchdowns in three trips at Florida, and you know how that ended. And you know how the rest of the year ended: eight red zone touchdowns in nine trips the first two weeks, 11 red zone touchdowns in 26 trips the rest of the season. So doing it against South Carolina and Missouri is no guarantee. But it’s already much, much better than what the Vols did in the red zone last year.

An opening drive touchdown!

We looked at what the Vols had done on their first drive just before the South Carolina game. The results: very bad! Only one touchdown and only one field goal on the offense’s first drive last season, while the defense gave up six touchdowns and two field goals on their opening possessions.

Tennessee’s first strike against Missouri was just the second first-drive touchdown of the Jeremy Pruitt era, joining that BYU game from last season. It also meant the Vols won their sixth straight against the SEC East’s second tier, but finally did it without giving up the game’s first points, as they had the other five times.

Scoring a touchdown on the opening drive has been an issue for a while now. Against FBS competition, the Vols did it once in 2019, never in 2018, and only against lesser competition in 2017 (Southern Miss and Vanderbilt) and 2016 (Ohio and Vanderbilt). You have to go back to 2015 to find the offense really humming out of the gate, with five first-drive touchdowns (including a kickoff return and a first-drive touchdown against Arkansas…in a game we somehow still lost). It was just one drive, but the Vols are moving in the right direction.

Good News/Bad News of the Week

Good News: Tennessee is one of only five teams yet to turn the ball over this season (of 74 now to play at least one game).

Bad News: Tennessee is one of only seven teams yet to hit a 40+ yard play. The Vols finished 73rd in this stat last year with 13 40+ yard plays, one per game on average.

Tomorrow, it becomes about Georgia. That really starts tonight; Tennessee’s performance at noon today allows us to sit back and watch the Dawgs and Auburn at 7:30 PM and see what we can learn, seven days before the first measuring stick of this kind for Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols. I’m not sure there’s a bad outcome: an Auburn victory puts the Dawgs one back in the loss column in the SEC East race, while a Georgia win gives Tennessee a chance to knock off a Top 5 team for the first time since The Rally at Death Valley 15 years ago.

But while today’s outcome is still the present, for these next few hours, we should celebrate it as a bridge between what will soon become the past, and what could soon become Tennessee’s future.

Eight wins in a row, by itself, is a significant accomplishment. The Vols have only won eight in a row, appropriately, eight times in the last 35 years:

• 1986-97 (8): After a 2-5 start on the heels of the 1985 SEC Championship, the Vols won their last four, beat Minnesota in the Liberty Bowl, and started 1987 3-0 before tying Auburn.
• 1990-91 (8): Following a November 10 heartbreaker against #1 Notre Dame, the Vols secured their second straight SEC title with a 3-0 finish, beat Virginia in the Sugar Bowl, and opened the 1991 campaign 4-0.
• 2019-20 (8): Started 2-5 with a loss to Georgia State, finished 6-0 with the Gator Bowl, now 2-0 in the new year.
• 1997 (9): Between a loss to Florida and the drubbing from Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, the Vols won nine straight and the SEC title in Peyton Manning’s senior season.
• 1988-89 (10): Started 0-6, finished 5-0 in 1988, then started 5-0 in 1989 before falling to Alabama, the only blemish in an SEC title season.
• 1995-96 (11): Lost to Florida, then won the rest in 1995, finished off with the Citrus Bowl over #4 Ohio State and a #2 finish in the coaches’ poll. Started 1996 2-0 before losing to Florida again.
• 2015-16 (11): The best of times for Butch Jones: six straight after the loss to Alabama in 2015, a breathtaking 5-0 to open 2016.
• 1998-99 (14): After the loss to Nebraska to end the 1997 season, the ’98 Vols of course went 13-0 and won it all, then beat Wyoming to open the 1999 campaign before getting Alex Browned in The Swamp.

Tennessee is 2-0, not only avoiding the kind of disaster they courted at the start of last season, but putting some additional distance between themselves and the SEC East’s traditional second tier. Six of these eight straight victories have come against that group, and while the Vols dominated Missouri statistically last season, today was far more comfortable on the scoreboard.

A 23-point win is Tennessee’s best margin against Power Five competition since beating Missouri by 26 at the end of 2016. That it comes with room for improvement is even better. Connor Bazelak went for 218 yards on 10.4 yards per attempt, a day tainted by a disastrous fourth quarter interception. Tennessee’s quarterback came out firing and finished okay, 14-of-23 (60.9%) for 190 yards at 8.3 yards per attempt, one touchdown and another clean slate in turnovers. Brent Cimaglia missed a 39-yard field goal badly.

You take any win by any margin this year, and Tennessee now has eight of them in a row. Disaster avoided and consistency solidified, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols have moved from the lowest of lows to a clear step above the teams they’ve battled too often in the last decade. That’s a job well done.

And that’s about to be the past, as it should be.

In the future, Tennessee is now 2-0 with Arkansas and Vanderbilt left on the schedule. Take care of business there, and a 7-3 finish only requires splitting the other six. With bowls clearly back in play, even a 6-4 finish could still break the right way to get the Vols to Tampa or, who knows, maybe even Orlando, putting some proof in the very strange pudding of 2020. The progress we celebrate today is also more likely to feel like progress in January now.

That’s the future.

Tonight, tomorrow, and next week, the present levels up.

He’s yet to get in a game like this as Tennessee’s head coach, but Jeremy Pruitt knows the deal:

Jeremy Pruitt on if Tennessee can play with Georgia:

"Absolutely."

Then he added:

"That's why I came to Tennessee, to play in games like this."

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 3, 2020

The Vols took the long way around to games like this, but they’re here now behind eight straight wins and a mammoth offensive line. They’re here with enough talent to let a guy like Jaylin Hyatt get his feet wet instead of going headfirst into the fire. And they’re here with Jarrett Guarantano, who became Tennessee’s quarterback three very long years ago when the Vols were crushed 41-0 the last time they played in a game like this. By Georgia.

Tonight, tomorrow, and hopefully far beyond, that will be the present. Last year’s season and this year in general have taught us plenty about what you can do with assumptions, but a 2-0 start at least puts a solid, forward-progress future in play for this season.

Today, raise a glass to an eight-game winning streak and a 23-point win we can nitpick. This crew has done an exceptional job from where we were about a year ago today. They deserve our thanks and praise.

It all leads to the next, first opportunity. From the depths of Georgia State and BYU and everything else, Tennessee has won their way back to real opportunity.

Now we get to find out just how much it can be worth.

Go Vols.

In Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ ratings, we were surprised to see the Tennessee defense come in at sixth overall, with all 130 teams accounted for. But some of the biggest pieces of that puzzle – no big plays, get to the quarterback, force turnovers – were things the Vols did well last season. The question was, how would they perform in those areas without Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior?

Your mileage may vary on what we saw from the defense at South Carolina, playing without Shawn Shamburger (which appears to be the case again this week). But in those three areas, the Vols did quite well.

No big plays

How many big plays did South Carolina have?

It feels like a handful, right? But it depends on how you define it.

Tennessee allowed 17 plays of 10+ yards (stats via SportSource Analytics). Among teams who’ve played only one game, only eight teams gave up more. That’s not great.

But only five of those 17 plays became 20+ yard gains. Two of those came on the opening drive, attacking Shamburger’s absence right away. But surrendering five 20+ yard gains currently ranks the Vols 12th in the nation. It’ll be somewhat hard to make these kinds of comparisons this season, because the 2020 Vols don’t have Chattanooga on the schedule, but last year Tennessee gave up only 39 20+ yard gains on the season, three per contest, third nationally.

The best news: last year Tennessee led the nation in gains of 30+ yards allowed, giving up just 10 such plays. How many 30+ yard gains did South Carolina get?

Just one: a 42-yard gain on their first snap of the second half, immediately after the Vols took a 21-7 lead.

Of the 72 teams to play so far this year, only four – Arkansas, Baylor, North Carolina, and Texas A&M – haven’t given up a 30+ yard play. Tennessee is tied with four others, including Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky, in giving up just one. (That’s almost half the league.)

Is this bend but don’t break? Only if you don’t do the other things well.

Get to the quarterback

How would Tennessee pressure the opposing quarterback without Darrell Taylor? So far, so good: four sacks against the Gamecocks, a player-of-the-week showing from Deandre Johnson, and hope the Vols can continue to cause problems for the opponent the way they did last season. With 34 sacks in 2019, the Vols put up their best total in five years. Taylor had 8.5 of those, making his absence the defense’s biggest perceived issue. But it wasn’t a problem at South Carolina.

In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are 18-4 when recording at least four sacks. And one of those four losses is the 2015 Alabama game, the closest Tennessee came to beating Bama in the last ten years. Another is last year’s BYU game, which required extreme weirdness to end in defeat. And some of the most meaningful wins since Fulmer was on the sideline show up in those 18 victories: Mississippi State and Indiana last season, 2018 Kentucky (when Darrell Taylor got four sacks by himself), the blowout of Northwestern, and back-to-back wins over South Carolina in 2013 and 2014. Get the QB four times, and you’ve got an excellent chance of winning. That’s in part because getting to the quarterback is the best way to…

Create turnovers

Henry To’o To’o’s pick six was of obvious value. The punt fumble recovery sealed the game. And just as important here was the offense keeping a clean slate, giving the Vols a +2 turnover margin.

In the post-Fulmer era, Tennessee is 25-2 with at least a +2 turnover margin. And you have to get really weird to lose at +2:

• 2017 Kentucky, when the Vols went +4 but also kicked six field goals, made only four, and lost by three in the, “Okay, Butch Jones is definitely getting fired,” game.
• 2010 LSU, when the Vols again went +4 but lost after the clock struck zero.

And here again, you’ll find some of our greatest (recent) hits on this list: 2018 Auburn, 2017 Georgia Tech, the Battle at Bristol, the 2015 Outback Bowl, 2013 South Carolina, and both of Lane Kiffin’s signature wins over Georgia and South Carolina in 2009.

The defense, at this point, seems built to not give up big plays. But it’s not bend but don’t break. It’s bend ’til they break: if Tennessee keeps getting to the quarterback, forcing multiple turnovers, and playing a clean game on their end of things? The Vols can do a lot of winning led by a defense that will look strong all season.

Without Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, we prepared ourselves for two outcomes: the instant emergence of mythical freshman wide receivers, or more opportunities for Eric Gray and Ty Chandler in the passing game. It’s hard to use the word “exciting” when those new opportunities come at the expense of no longer having #15 and #1 out there, but both options felt full of possibility.

Instead, 16 of Jarrett Guarantano’s 19 completions at South Carolina went to veteran wide receivers.

It worked, so no complaints here, just an early observation.

Josh Palmer is one-for-one as the alpha: six catches, 85 yards, and the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. That’s a great sign. I thought Velus Jones played a role similar to the way the Vols used Von Pearson a few years ago, finishing with five catches and 29 yards, unable to fully break free but with plenty of opportunity ahead, it seems. Brandon Johnson had the best catch of the night, finishing with three for 73. And Ramel Keyton was targeted more often than his two catches for 20 yards.

It’s early, and it’s weird with the virus. But none of the freshmen got involved in the passing game in week one, and Tennessee’s failures on third down didn’t allow enough distance between the Vols and Gamecocks to get them some snaps with Tennessee holding a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, what we saw from the running backs in the passing game was…basically what we saw from the running backs in the passing game last year. Eric Gray got 31 yards on the ol’ flea flicker check down. Ty Chandler had one catch for 10 yards. And that’s it.

Last year Jennings, Callaway, and Palmer were a formidable trio: 123 catches between them, 61.5% of Tennessee’s total on the year by themselves. Dominick Wood-Anderson added 21 catches at tight end. And the backs? Gray and Chandler each finished with 13, or one per game…which is what they got Saturday. Tim Jordan had six catches in a dozen appearances.

The difference between Pruitt’s Vols and what we saw in Butch Jones’ five years can still feel a bit jarring in this department, considering the running back was an essential part of the passing game from 2013-17:

Season	RB	Catches	Team Rank
2017	John Kelly	37	T-1st
2016	Alvin Kamara	40	T-2nd
2015	Alvin Kamara	34	2nd
2014	Jalen Hurd	35	3rd
2013	Rajion Neal	27	3rd

Tennessee’s secondary pass-catching RBs got the same kind of work in Jones’ offense that Gray and Chandler saw last year and last week: Marlin Lane had 11 catches in 2014, Jalen Hurd 22 in 2015 and 10 in his shortened 2016 campaign, Ty Chandler 10 in 2017.

Again, the Vols won and I thought Guarantano had one of his best starts. But I’ll be curious to see if the freshmen can get involved at receiver, and if Tennessee looks to Gray and Chandler more often. So far, it continues to be the preference of both the staff and the quarterback to throw the ball to receivers downfield far more often than not, even without Jennings and Callaway out there. If that continues to work, all this will go from curiosity to real strength. And it’s also nice to feel like the Vols have real options in the passing game we haven’t even seen yet.

1-0! Feels good!

Don’t take a seven game winning streak for granted

The historical benchmarks for a Tennessee team looking for success typically go, “Since 2015-16, since 2007, since 2004, since 2001, since 1998.” Seven wins in a row? Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols join 2015-16 as the only team(s) to accomplish that since 2001. And this is just the 10th seven game winning streak for the Vols in the last 35 years:

• 7 in a row: 1985-86, 2001, 2019-20
• 8: 1986-87, 1990-91
• 9: 1997
• 10: 1988-99
• 11: 1995-96, 2015-16
• 14: 1998-99

Tennessee will be an underdog at Georgia in two weeks, but could become the just eighth Vol group since 1985 with an eight game winning streak if they beat Missouri on Saturday.

How hard is it to win at 1-of-11 on third down?

At least in Tennessee’s own history, it’s so unusual it’s hard to find a good comparison; as we noted in the postgame last night, usually that kind of performance gets you beat by 30+ points.

Four years ago, the Vols beat Kentucky with just one third down conversion…but they only had five attempts all game, that November offense running at its best-in-the-nation rate. If you’re looking for victory, I can find only two other candidates: a 2-of-15 slog when the Vols almost lost to UAB in Derek Dooley’s first season, and a 3-of-14 performance against, you guessed it, South Carolina in the black jerseys the year before. Consider how much more the Vols could’ve won that game by…which is a sentence I’d like to entertain for this year’s team as well.

All that to say: going 1-of-11 on third down is unusual by itself, and beating an SEC team on the road while you do it is downright stupid, which fits this year quite nicely, thanks.

Where does last night rank for Jarrett Guarantano?

National stats are kind of worthless with only 72 teams having taken a snap so far. Guarantano’s 259 yards ranks 18th nationally as a ypg average at the moment, but obviously wouldn’t finish there. The best comparison for JG right now is Past JG.

Tennessee’s quarterback has a pair of games on his resume that will be fairly difficult to top:

• 2018 Auburn: 21-of-32 (65.6%) for 328 yards (10.3 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as a two-touchdown underdog
• 2019 Missouri: 23-of-40 (57.5%) for 415 yards (10.4 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as only the third Vol QB to throw for 400+

Unless JG goes off in one of our biggest games this season, he’s unlikely to turn heads in the same way he did at Auburn. And I’m all for him throwing for 400+ again, it’s just highly unusual around here.

But after those two games? Guarantano played really well off the bench against South Carolina last year (11-of-19 for 229) and had similar numbers in the 2018 win over Kentucky (12-of-20 for 197). But among games he started, I think yesterday was his third best performance as a Vol: 19-of-31 for 259 with a TD, a rushing TD, and no picks, with the game-winning touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. It clearly could’ve been better, though some percentage of that responsibility belongs to not having Jennings and Callaway out there. But compared to JG’s past, I thought it was solid.

Tennessee was 1-of-11 on third down. Last year the Vols had at least four third down conversions in every game. In 2018 Tennessee was 2-of-10 against Missouri. You have to go back to the worst season, record wise, in school history in 2017, against the best competition: 1-of-12 against Georgia, 1-of-12 against Alabama. Tennessee lost those games by 41, 38, and 33 to Missouri.

Tennessee won tonight.

There was clear improvement in the offense’s every-down consistency: in the first half Tennessee didn’t face anything longer than 3rd-and-6. The Vols stayed out of trouble, but couldn’t make nearly as much as they could have for South Carolina.

It goes in the books as a decently clean game offensively: 394 yards in 65 plays at just over six yards per play, and no turnovers. Jarrett Guarantano had his moments, good and bad, but never let a ball go that put Tennessee in danger. He hit a big deep ball to Josh Palmer (six catches, 85 yards) to put the Vols in front 31-24, and connected with seven different targets a year after losing his biggest two.

It was Jauan Jennings’ absence that was felt the most on third down:

Jauan Jennings on third down last year:

366 yards (fifth nationally)
19 catches (18th nationally)
18 first downs (fifth nationally)

This is where we miss him most.

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) September 27, 2020

Guarantano took two first half sacks on third down and missed some open receivers. Jim Chaney kept going back to him; Tennessee’s ground game was similarly clean if not spectacular. But the Vols simply couldn’t connect to extend drives.

And that kept South Carolina alive deep into the night. Tennessee’s defense dominated early after surrendering an opening touchdown. But the Gamecocks and Mike Bobo adjusted well, opening the third quarter with two touchdowns, an inches-short conversion attempt on an end around, and a field goal to tie the game 24-24.

When Guarantano and Palmer put the Vols back in front with less than ten minutes to play, the defense got two big plays the rest of the way home. Bryce Thompson blew up a screen on South Carolina’s next offensive snap, ending their next drive immediately. And with the Gamecocks driving the next time down, a false start penalty forced a 1st-and-15 at the 31 yard line, and they found no traction from there, settling for a field goal to cut it to 31-27.

They would get one more chance, of course. But then this year kind of kept happening to South Carolina, while the Vols got a momentary escape: a rugby-style punt from Paxton Brooks bounced into a South Carolina player and into the willing arms of Jimmy Holiday, and the Vols get the victory.

#Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt: I’ll be honest, I knew we weren’t ready to play great tonight. We played better than I thought we would at times, but we didn’t sustain it. But we found a way to win.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) September 27, 2020

Will it get prettier from here? Jauan Jennings isn’t walking through that door, but Guarantano will get more reps with guys like Brandon Johnson, who had a huge catch on Tennessee’s only third down conversion early in the night, as well as all the newcomers. The Vols didn’t have Shawn Shamburger in the secondary tonight and gave up 10 catches and 140 yards to Shi Smith; it felt like 97% of Carolina’s offense came on a slant route.

And yet it’s kind of fitting for this year that in something so unique and horrendous like 1-of-11 on third down, our team still found a way to win. There are no bad wins in a 10-game SEC schedule. Tennessee gets to 1-0 with Missouri coming to Knoxville next week. Consistency can come if the virus allows it. But the Vols – now winners of seven straight overall – used some of what they learned last year and just enough of everything else to get a road win tonight anyway.

Getting any football would’ve been a gift. We got 1-0.

Go Vols.