Author Archives: Will Shelton

In 2021, the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was sack rate allowed. The Vols surrendered 44 sacks, 124th nationally, and UT quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of their pass attempts. That percentage was the worst in Knoxville during the post-Fulmer era.

The 2021 offensive line sent Cade Mays to the NFL, but brought everyone else back. We thought if the Vols could just be even a little better here, it could make a huge difference in the program’s overall progress.

And they were far more than a little better in 2022.

With just 27 sacks allowed on 438 passing plays from Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton, last year Tennessee had a sack rate of 6.16%. That number was in line with what Tennessee’s offense was able to accomplish in keeping Josh Dobbs upright in 2015 and 2016. And it helped produce one of the best offenses in school history in 2022.

Where might similar progress be found for 2023?

When you win 11 games and your program has made more progress in two years (via SP+) than any other SEC team in the last 30 years? It’s a short list.

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, last year the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a high percentage of their passes. Opponents hit on 62.6% of their throws last season, 97th nationally. Here again, so much overall progress has been made at Tennessee, you don’t have to go back very far to find something worse: the 2020 team allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, and the 2018 team was at 63.0%.

We looked at this two off-seasons ago, when it represented the most statistical progress the 2021 team could make. The national average in completion percentage has leveled off in the 61% range the last three seasons, still up from what we saw in college football in 2013-17. Top 10 teams in this department now complete around two-thirds of their passes.

Using that as a benchmark, here’s every Power 5 quarterback to complete 66.7+% of their passes with at least 20 completions against Tennessee in the post-Fulmer era:

Year	QB	Team	PCT	YPA
2022	Jayden Daniels	LSU	71.1%	6.7
2022	Bryce Young	Alabama	67.3%	8.8
2022	Spencer Rattler	South Carolina	81.1%	11.8
2021	Kenny Pickett	Pittsburgh	66.7%	7.9
2021	Emory Jones	Florida	77.8%	7.7
2021	Bryce Young	Alabama	72.1%	8.6
2020	Mac Jones	Alabama	80.6%	12.5
2020	Kyle Trask	Florida	71.4%	8.8
2020	Kellen Mond	Texas A&M	81.3%	8.8
2019	Kyle Trask	Florida	71.4%	10.5
2019	Jake Fromm	Georgia	82.8%	9.9
2018	Will Grier	West Virginia	73.5%	12.6
2018	Drew Lock	Missouri	70.0%	8.6
2018	Kyle Shurmur	Vanderbilt	88.6%	10.5
2017	Jalen Hurts	Alabama	66.7%	10.1
2016	Jarod Evans	Virginia Tech	71.4%	7.6
2015	Jake Coker	Alabama	77.8%	9.1
2013	Marcus Mariota	Oregon	69.7%	13.8
2013	A. Carta-Samuels	Vanderbilt	77.8%	6.7
2012	Aaron Murray	Georgia	76.9%	11
2012	Connor Shaw	South Carolina	68.8%	11.1
2010	Mike Hartline	Kentucky	70.5%	6.2

You can see how this played out three different ways for Tennessee’s defense in 2022. At LSU, Jayden Daniels completed 32 of 45 passes, but the Vols kept everything in front of them as their lead swelled. With Alabama, the Vols went shootout mode (against the eventual number one overall pick) and came out on top. And of course, at South Carolina, it went wrong on both sides of the ball.

One big difference here: the Vols sacked Jayden Daniels five times. They only got Bryce Young once, Spencer Rattler once. Of the 22 quarterbacks on the above list, how many got sacked more than twice?

• 2022 Jayden Daniels at LSU: 5 sacks
• 2018 Kyle Shurmur vs Vanderbilt: 3 sacks
• 2016 Jerod Evans vs Virginia Tech: 3 sacks
• 2015 Jake Coker at Alabama: 5 sacks

That’s a pair of comfortable wins in huge games, and as close at Tennessee came to the Crimson Tide in 15 years (plus the weirdness of the season-ending loss to Vanderbilt in 2018). Even as college football grows in passing efficiency and the Vols continue to face elite SEC quarterbacks, getting to the passer can make an enormous difference here.

In that regard, the Vols weren’t bad at all last year: 31 sacks, 42nd nationally. Tennessee dropped quarterbacks from Pittsburgh, LSU, Kentucky, and Clemson at least four times each, making a big difference in each of those ranked wins.

Here’s the opportunity: Byron Young had seven of the 16 sacks in those four wins (talk about bigtime players in bigtime games: that means every one of his sacks came in those four games last year).

Who steps up next?

In the midst of all these conversations that come with the 11-win territory – can the next QB shine as bright as the last QB, if so who’s catching all those touchdowns this time, etc. – don’t miss the few but meaningful ways this team could make progress over last season. If Tennessee is just one step better here, makes life just a little less comfortable for opposing quarterbacks (and/or the secondary makes life just a little less comfortable for receivers), Tennessee’s defense can make an significant difference in the ultimate outcome for the 2023 Vols.

How to make progress over last season is a beautifully short list.

Finding that progress anyway would be even sweeter.

Go Vols.

Since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, Tennessee has been ranked in the preseason poll 24 times. That includes yesterday, when the Vols debuted at #12.

In the continuing adventures of “being back”, if you take the average of those 24 appearances over the past 35 seasons, Tennessee’s average preseason ranking is…12th. Right at home.

Here’s the full distribution:

Vols in the Preseason AP Poll, 1989-2023

1
2	1996	1999
3	2005
4
5	1997	2002
6
7
8	1990	1995	2001
9	2016
10	1993	1998
11	1991
12	2000	2003	2023
13	1994
14	2004
15	2007
16
17
18	2008
19
20
21	1992
22
23	2006
24
25	2015	2017	2020

The Vols now have 18 appearances in the preseason Top 15 in that same span. And only two of those came in the last 15 years: ninth in 2016, and 12th for 2023.

From 1990-2007, Tennessee was ranked in the Top 15 in preseason 16 times in 18 years. It’s the 8-15 range where the program really lived in the 90s, with just five preseason Top 5 appearances in those same years.

The Vols were unranked in last year’s preseason poll, just outside the Top 25. They moved up for the Week 2 game at Pitt, the first of six ranked wins last season, a program high.

As you know, some of the real joy last year – extending into right now – was Tennessee occupying a space it hasn’t in such a long time.

How many weeks have the Vols been ranked 12th or higher?

• 2023: Preseason (1)
• 2022: September 18 through final poll (13)
• 2016: Preseason, September 25 through October 10 (4)
• 2007: Final Poll (1)

The Vols show up more often once you go back to 2006, which is also the last time Tennessee was ranked in the poll every week (including preseason). But Tennessee hasn’t spent an entire season in the Top 12 (or Top 10) since 1999.

It’s only the preseason poll. But there remains much to be grateful for, and much to be excited about.

Soon.

How much progress can a program make in a coach’s first two years?

One of the things I’ve enjoyed playing with the most these past few weeks is Bill Connelly’s historical SP+ data. Using a simplified version of his SP+ formula based on points scored/points allowed, Connelly has a rating for every team, ever. Back in June, we used this to examine the greatness of 2022 in comparison to every other Tennessee team.

So how does what Tennessee did – making this much progress in just two years – compare to what we’ve seen from other new coaches?

Patience vs. Progress

I’m wrong a lot; the real disappointment is in being wrong in the least fun ways possible. A dozen years and several lifetimes ago, I wrote on how Tennessee’s ceiling in basketball would never be higher than it was under Bruce Pearl. Turns out, we’re not always good at eyeballing that distance.

It’s true to the floor as well, though with football I’m still not sure there was a healthier way to be in the past few years. Considering the unique vulnerability the program faced in the transition from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt, then the month we spent at the end of 2020 into 2021 not knowing if Pruitt would be retained? All of that, on top of 13 years of varying levels of frustration, made it seem like the healthiest path was patience, with a heaping dose of honesty and self-awareness.

And I still think that was right, given the circumstances. The missing piece of that awareness was how quickly things could, in fact, change.

It did not change by hiring the “sure thing” or seeking primarily to win the press conference. And there’s also an overall awareness college football is still trying to wrap itself around. The one where TCU goes 5-7 with losses to Oklahoma State and Iowa State by a combined 80 points, then plays for the national championship the very next year with a new coach.

There’s little that is fully understood about NIL and the transfer portal. It certainly seems to have created the possibility of an accelerated rebuild at a number of different places.

But all of that to say this: in historical SP+, Tennessee made more progress in the first two years under Josh Heupel than any other team in the SEC since divisional play began.

Most Improved Programs in Historical SP+ in a Coach’s First Two Seasons (SEC, 1992-2022)

1. Tennessee, Josh Heupel (+30.1 in SP+ from 2020 to 2022)
2. Vanderbilt, James Franklin (+27.5)
3. Arkansas, Sam Pittman (+27.1)
4. Ole Miss, Houston Nutt (+25.5)
5. Florida, Dan Mullen (+24.8)

(full Top 25 at the bottom of this post)

Consider the company this keeps.

Florida under Mullen is a tiny version of the names we’ll find much further down the list. Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are obviously two of the best in the business. But they also stepped in at powerhouse programs with relative recent success. Alabama went 10-2 two years before Saban was hired. Georgia was 10-3 in Mark Richt’s final season. That kind of improvement led to multiple national championships on both counts…but because the starting point was higher, the program’s overall progress doesn’t rate as high on this particular list. Same rules apply for Steve Spurrier at South Carolina in following Lou Holtz; some version of this is what we would’ve been hoping for had Lane Kiffin stayed around for a second season, etc.

Mullen inherited a program that won the SEC East in 2015 and 2016, but hit a steep drop-off in 2017. The Gators went 4-7, losing to Georgia by 35 and Missouri by 29 on consecutive Saturdays. Jim McElwain was out, Dan Mullen was in, and Florida went 10-3 then 11-2 the next two seasons.

And of course, Mullen at Florida is a great example that nothing remains guaranteed; the Gators won the SEC East in 2020 and were the only team to play Alabama within two possessions. But in 2021 Mullen was out as Florida’s season spiraled.

Ole Miss under Houston Nutt is a good example of following a prolonged down period. Nutt followed Ed Oregron, who went 10-25 in three years in Oxford. He immediately turned things around with a pair of 9-4 seasons, but was fired two years later after going 4-8 then 2-10 (those wins were later vacated). In historical SP+, Orgeron’s first team and Nutt’s last team have the lowest ratings at Ole Miss in the modern era. I am far from the expert on Ole Miss (and stay tuned for a Hugh Freeze sighting), but the numbers obviously suggest a lack of sustainable growth for the program during those tenures.

That’s a good word for the current hope at Arkansas, where Sam Pittman took over following one of the lowest-rated seasons for any SEC program in the modern era. The 2019 Hogs went 2-10 and lost five games in a row by at least 27 points, one of them to Western Kentucky. Pittman started in the covid year, and while Arkansas went just 3-7, they lost to Auburn, LSU, and Missouri by a combined seven points.

At some point early in the 2021 season, I remember thinking how we’d be doing backflips for what Pittman accomplished at Arkansas in year two: a beatdown of Texas, then a 10-point win over #7 Texas A&M, and suddenly you’re ranked eighth. The Hogs finished 9-4 and won the Outback Bowl.

Is it sustainable growth? Last year Arkansas went 7-6 with four one-possession losses. When we play this exercise out over a coach’s first three years, you’ll see Pittman continues to be right at the top.

And we know better than most other programs about James Franklin at Vanderbilt. The Commodores are an apples-to-oranges comparison not just to Tennessee, but really any other program in this league; what Franklin was able to accomplish really only grows in stature when you look at both the coach and the program since then. What he did in Nashville is the off-the-top-of-your-head answer to which program made the most progress under a new coach.

And in historical SP+, Josh Heupel’s first two years at Tennessee top even that.

The 2020 season rates the lowest in the modern era at Tennessee, with the Vols at a -2.0 rating (points worse than the average team on a neutral field). In 2021, Tennessee finished at 15.7. Then last season, we jumped to 28.2. Play-for-play, the 2022 Vols rate as the third-best team in program history in historical SP+; they’re the only UT team with three ranked wins of three-plus possessions. From one of the lowest points, to one of the highest points, with a ton of uncertainty and pending NCAA sanctions and playing Alabama and Georgia every year, etc. etc.

The truth is, Tennessee could’ve gone 5-7 in Heupel’s first year, then 9-4 in year two, and we would’ve called it significant progress. And it would’ve been! We’d be excited right now to find out if Tennessee could take the next big step.

And instead, the Vols leaped into the national championship conversation in year two, and positioned themselves to stay there going forward.

Speaking of going forward:

Most Improved Programs in Historical SP+ in a Coach’s First Three Seasons (SEC, 1992-2022)

1. Ole Miss, Hugh Freeze (+29.3 in SP+ from 2011 to 2014)
2. Arkansas, Sam Pittman (+24.3)
3. Vanderbilt, James Franklin (+23.9)
4. South Carolina, Lou Holtz (+22.9)
5. Alabama, Nick Saban (+22.5)

If the Vols ended up level in 2023 compared to 2022, Josh Heupel would top this list as well. Being in position to win 11 games again would be an incredible accomplishment, of course. There remain no guarantees, but Tennessee is positioning itself to be in the championship conversation every season; that’s the real prize of all of this, to be in the hunt every year as the field prepares to expand.

What’s been done here is truly remarkable, and by this metric, beyond any progress in any other coach’s first two seasons in the expansion-era SEC.

So…where to next?

Go Vols.

Here’s the full Top 25 research on the first two years:

Team	Years	New Coach	SP+ Change
Tennessee	2020-2022	Josh Heupel	30.1
Vanderbilt	2010-2012	James Franklin	27.5
Arkansas	2019-2021	Sam Pittman	27.1
Ole Miss	2007-2009	Houston Nutt	25.5
Florida	2017-2019	Dan Mullen	24.8
Ole Miss	2011-2013	Hugh Freeze	22.8
Mississippi St	2008-2010	Dan Mullen	22.6
Auburn	2008-2010	Gene Chizik	21
South Carolina	2020-2022	Shane Beamer	20.1
Auburn	2012-2014	Gus Malzahn	19.6
Arkansas	1997-1999	Houston Nutt	19
South Carolina	1998-2000	Lou Holtz	18.6
LSU	1999-2001	Nick Saban	17.6
Kentucky	1996-1998	Hal Mumme	17.4
Auburn	1991-1993	Terry Bowden	17.3
Alabama	2000-2002	Dennis Franchione	16.5
LSU	1993-1995	Gerry DiNardo	16.1
Kentucky	2000-2002	Guy Morriss	15.9
Vanderbilt	2020-2022	Clark Lea	13.5
Kentucky	2012-2014	Mark Stoops	13.4
Ole Miss	2019-2021	Lane Kiffin	13.3
Auburn	1998-2000	Tommy Tuberville	12.8
South Carolina	2004-2006	Steve Spurrier	12.7
Georgia	2015-2017	Kirby Smart	12.2
Alabama	2006-2008	Nick Saban	11.8

Our family moved back to Knoxville a year ago now. I often joke that I need a side gig with the chamber of commerce, because I’m not sure anyone is happier to be here.

In that time, it’s been a delight to watch our church and our children grow. My son is getting ready to go to kindergarten; his sister just turned three. We took him to his first game at Neyland last fall, where Tennessee set the school record for total yardage. It won’t always be like this.

And in that same year, as you know and love, Tennessee returned to the national conversation in football, then finished off maybe their single greatest academic year in all sports. Everything is everything.

If you’ve followed along here or at Rocky Top Talk through the years, you’ve probably heard me talk about becoming a blogger around ten days after I became a pastor. It wasn’t anything I planned, I just moved away from Knoxville for the first time in my life, and more than anything, I missed talking about the Vols with my friends.

That was 17 years ago this month. And maybe it’s appropriate: that initial version of it, just me writing when there was time and interest with a small community of dedicated readers…that’s not too dissimilar from what this site is today.

So first, a word of thanks for all of those who’ve read the site(s) for any or all of these years.

And also a word to say: things are slowing down around here.

You probably knew that to some degree already; Joel and I have often said that “write what you want when you want” is what kept these blogs and their authors healthy all these years. I’ve been so grateful for the community at Gameday on Rocky Top these past six years after initially slowing down in leaving Rocky Top Talk.

And one of my favorite parts about the last year of success has been sharing some of those conversations – a few on this site, many more behind the scenes – with some of our old writing staff. We wrote at RTT for eight football seasons, nine in basketball. During those years, the football team won 52% of its games, the basketball team 58%.

And it was fun. I’m so grateful that it’s always been fun. 

It still is, of course. In some ways more than ever; winning, it turns out, is great!

Living in Knoxville, I’m just also finding a version of the very thing I missed that sent me to the keyboard all these years ago. It’s such a gift to even begin to find it with my kids.

And maybe most of all, we are deeply enjoying and deeply grateful for the life and community we find through our church (if you’re on the north side of town, come say hey sometime!).

I don’t think this is the last thing that will ever be written on this site or anything like that, though this is probably the first time I’ve felt like that was a possibility. I still have no idea how to be a pastor and not do this.

But as I’m aware of the changing rhythms in our lives, I wanted to let you know, and make sure to take the opportunity to say thank you, so very much, for being here. Those who’ve read the site over all these years helped create a very real sense of community for us, and I hope for you. I cannot tell you how meaningful it’s been for me, and how important it was early on when I was far from home and the people I loved. You’ve helped me grow up as a person and a pastor. And I still get such a kick out of sharing this together.

I remain just a kid who grew up in Knoxville who loves the Vols. Thanks for the privilege of doing that together, through all the wins and losses.

Grace and Peace and Go Vols,

Will

There was this nice string of days last week that went Vols in Omaha –> Julian Phillips in the NBA Draft –> Phil Steele arrives in my mailbox. Because the joyful weight of an #everythingschool is felt most on the calendar. This is June 29, and it’s time to talk about football. In a number of seasons past, that conversation started somewhere before March 29.

So here’s something else we’re going to have to get used to: I want to talk about 2023, but I’m not entirely sure we’re done having fun talking about 2022.

A couple of weeks ago, Bill Connelly released a version of his historical SP+ data based on points scored and points allowed, using it in re-ranking the best teams of each decade. It’s simplified from the week-to-week ratings we look at often each fall, but still informative, especially in comparing one season to the next. Not all 8-4s are created equal. As it turns out, not all 11-2s are either: the 2022 Vols rank third all-time at Tennessee.

Those of us who were around for the 90s (or 1970, still the all-time SP+ king of Knoxville) will shrug off this suggestion initially I’m sure; I did too. Last year was amazing, but whoa whoa on calling it the third-best in school history and all that. When we looked at a version of this data seven years ago at Rocky Top Talk, we found an example I’ve cited frequently since then: Tennessee’s highest-rated team of the 90s in SP+ wasn’t the national champs or one led by Peyton Manning. It was Heath Shuler’s 1993 squad. They’re still second overall in the updated rankings today, one spot ahead of 2022. That group tied #2 Alabama and lost a 41-34 shootout at #9 Florida. But in the regular season, they hot-knife-through-buttered absolutely everyone else.

So maybe think of it this way: play-for-play, Saturday-for-Saturday, who would the opponent least like to see running through the T? That ’93 squad, with Shuler the Heisman runner-up, is definitely on that list.

That’s now 30 years ago, maybe too far away for a clean comparison. And we’re still too close to last fall, too tied up in the giddiness of our feelings of what Tennessee Football won back. Maybe SP+ is your jam, maybe it’s not. But how else might we quantify last fall’s success, and corroborate the incredible leap we find in those ratings?

Consider this: the AP Poll went to 25 teams in 1989. Since then, only seven Tennessee teams beat multiple ranked foes by 3+ possessions (17+ points).

By my count, the Vols did it five times in the 1990s:

• 1993: #22 Georgia 38-6 & #13 Louisville 45-10
• 1994: #24 Georgia 41-23 & #17 Virginia Tech 45-23
• 1995: #18 Arkansas 49-31 & #12 Alabama 41-14
• 1997: #13 Georgia 38-13 & #20 Southern Miss 44-20
• 1999: #10 Georgia 37-20 & #24 Notre Dame 38-14

Before last year, Tennessee most recently accomplished this feat in 2006. And that group probably has the best one-two punch: #9 California in the opener 35-18, #10 Georgia on the road 51-33. (Shout out to the 1985 SugarVols, before the Top 25 era, who smashed #1 Auburn 38-20 and #2 Miami 35-7. That’s pretty good.)

But last year, the 2022 Vols became the only Tennessee team of the Top 25 era to beat three ranked teams by at least three possessions:

• #25 LSU 40-13
• #19 Kentucky 44-6
• #7 Clemson 31-14

Some like to nitpick the value of wins using a team’s ranking the week of the game, and I get that, to some degree, at the end of the year. I think it’s foolish to discount that in the moment, however: beating a ranked team is a significant percentage of the why behind the fun. And while Kentucky may have finished just 7-6, LSU was plenty good as SEC West champs; Clemson was the season finale.

Also, as you may recall, we beat Bama; I don’t think the 2022 team is in extreme danger of being overvalued.

Whatever your thoughts on SP+ and 2022’s ranking all-time at UT – which, pun intended, isn’t always oranges to oranges – we continue to find ways to say that what happened last fall wasn’t just being back, but being present. That group last year was in the championship conversation. They got there by beating more ranked teams by more points than any Tennessee team we’ve seen come before.

And that continues to make me believe Tennessee will make themselves right at home in that conversation going forward.

Lady Vol softball went through Alabama 10-5 yesterday, opening the Women’s College World Series with a bang. Up next: the two-time defending national champs from Oklahoma, who boast an average 57-1 record this season.

The two met last season, with Oklahoma winning deep into extra innings. The Sooners carry all the rightful hype that comes with rings and records, plus the localized crowd in Oklahoma City. But Tennessee – both Lady Vol softball and the entire athletic department – is well versed in taking on number one at this point.

In the last two athletic years, Tennessee’s five major programs – football, men’s & women’s basketball, baseball & softball – have faced a team ranked number one 11 times; Oklahoma will make 12 tomorrow. In those 11 games (or weekend series in baseball), the Vols have wins over:

• Alabama in football, number one in the coaches’ poll
• Alabama in basketball, number one in the AP poll
• One win in the series with LSU baseball this season
• A sweep of Ole Miss in baseball last season

It’s a byproduct of Tennessee’s overall success that the Vols have been able to score victories over the best of the best. Oklahoma’s resume is probably the front-runner in terms of overall quality of opponent, though Georgia football and South Carolina women’s basketball would certainly be in that conversation these last two years.

But also, consider the absurdity of the fact that each of Tennessee’s 12 meetings with a number one team in these five sports over the last two years came against a current or future member of the SEC:

• 2021 Football vs Georgia
• 2022 Lady Vol Basketball vs South Carolina
• 2022 Baseball vs Texas & Ole Miss
• 2022 Softball vs Oklahoma
• 2022 Football vs Alabama & Georgia
• 2023 Basketball vs Alabama
• 2023 Lady Vol Basketball vs South Carolina x2
• 2023 Baseball vs LSU
• 2023 Softball vs Oklahoma

That’s seven different SEC programs to reach number one in those sports in the last two years. Florida, who consistently boasts one of the most competitive athletic departments in the league, doesn’t appear on this list.

And, of course, we would add ourselves: just in the last calendar year, Tennessee reached number one in the college football playoff poll, number one in KenPom, and number one throughout last baseball season.

That’s pretty good.

And on such a pretty good list, maybe the most impressive feat of all could be accomplished tomorrow.