Author Archives: Will Shelton

If you’re looking for an orange-tinted case for the 12-team playoff, Saturday is about as good as it gets: #13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri would serve as a play-in opportunity of sorts, championship implications for both teams. It would be one of the most meaningful games Tennessee has ever played in mid-November, so often headlined by Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

But you also don’t have to wait a year for high stakes football two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Two things have happened in Knoxville the last three years:

• The Georgia game was moved to November, ensuring a late-season opportunity for a meaningful win. Georgia’s own ascent as potential three-peat champs added all kinds of obvious fuel here.
• Josh Heupel’s arrival has led to Tennessee going 25-10 in his first 35 games after going 78-82 from 2008-2020. The Vols are in the Top 15 with three weeks to go for the second year in a row. The last time that happened in back-to-back seasons was 2003-2004.

Putting Tennessee’s own success aside for a moment, consider the rarity of the big mid-November game around here. Since the AP poll expanded to a Top 25 in 1989, the Vols have faced a ranked opponent in the last three weeks of the season just 13 times. One of those was the December 2001 clash between Tennessee and Florida, postponed from September 11. Two more came in the covid season. And one other came after Butch Jones was let go in 2017, when Brady Hoke led the Vols against #20 LSU.

That leaves just nine games built into Tennessee’s schedule that brought this kind of opportunity this late in the season:

• Two years ago, the Vols fought but fell to #1 Georgia 41-17.
• In 2018, maybe what was ultimately the biggest win for Jeremy Pruitt, 24-7 over #12 Kentucky. The Vols moved to 5-5 and had to beat either Missouri or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible, but lost to both by a combined 58 points.
• Missouri again in 2014, the eventual East champs after a 29-21 win in Knoxville. The #19 Tigers were the first of six one-possession losses in an 18-6 run from November 2014 to October 2016 after Josh Dobbs became the full-time starter. Ever heard of him?
• A pair of out-of-our-league losses to Auburn in 2013 and at Arkansas in 2011, two teams who finished in the top five.
• In 2006, with Erik Ainge still recovering from injury (and a week after losing to #13 LSU in the final seconds to start the last four weeks of the season), the Vols fell 31-14 at #11 Arkansas.
• The vaunted 1998 Arkansas game.
• The vaunted SP+ world champions of Knoxville in 1993, who smoked #13 Louisville 45-10.
• A gritty 22-13 win at #15 Ole Miss for Johnny Majors in 1990 to keep the Vols on pace for an eventual SEC Championship.

We’ve been far more accustomed to finding meaning in bowl eligibility this late in the season in the last 15 or so years. Now, it’s the first of two Top 15 opponents in the last three weeks of the season, with the Vols right alongside.

When Tennessee and Missouri kick-off at 3:30, everything will still be on the table. You know by now the one path to Atlanta: Vols over Missouri, Ole Miss over Georgia, Vols over Georgia next Saturday. That path, while narrow, could still lead to the college football playoff. If the most important question is, “Are we in the hunt?”, this team has positioned themselves to say yes, even in the last year of four-team world.

Georgia’s credit is also Tennessee’s opportunity: even if the Dawgs secure the SEC East on Saturday night, you’ll find no shortage of meaning in Neyland Stadium next week. Aside from playing for a potential New Year’s Six opportunity – the first time the Vols went back-to-back in the BCS or NY6 since 1998-1999 – a win against this Georgia run would be one of the biggest regular season victories Tennessee has enjoyed in our lifetimes.

The schedule is opportunistic; maybe there will be more Novembers like this going forward.

But Tennessee has been the biggest factor in its own equation, as it should be. The opponents are big. But the Vols have been big enough to make these moments matter for all involved.

A year from now, conversations about #21 Tennessee would start with, “Okay, we’re nine spots out of the playoff.”

There are always opportunities to improve one’s resume in the SEC, and that’s especially true for the Vols this season. In these changing rhythms, consider this:

• Alabama was the first ranked opponent Tennessee faced. The last time the Vols didn’t play a ranked foe until October was 1982.
• The Vols should play two ranked opponents in the last three games of the regular season (#16 Missouri, #1 Georgia). The last time the Vols played two ranked foes in the last three games (non-pandemic) was 1958!

Between here and there is Kentucky: one of the reasons the Vols didn’t close with ranked foes for a long time, but currently riding seven straight years of bowl eligibility. The Cats started hot, then cooled immediately: beat Florida by 19, lost to Georgia and Missouri by a combined 55.

Everyone is more human this season. In SP+, the only breakaway team is the one at the center of the controversy this week in Ann Arbor…and even they would be just fifth overall in last year’s ratings. Behind them are the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs, who this week would be about a six point favorite in Knoxville. Alabama is next, who the Vols just feel like they let get away in Tuscaloosa.

And in Lexington, the match-up is almost dead even in SP+.

This season is taking on the feel of some of those late Fulmer teams: when the margins are thinner, it feels like anything can happen. Sometimes you get November 2006, when multiple ranked teams got the best of a depleted Vol squad. Sometimes you get November 2007, when multiple unranked teams almost got the best of a young Vol squad…but Tennessee won the East.

That option, by the way, is still alive and well. When the two-time national champs look as mortal as they do, it’s not crazy to ask for a stub of the toe against Florida, Missouri, or Ole Miss. Any one of those (and additional losses from Florida if it’s the Gators) would set up November 18 as an SEC East title game, if the Vols can get there without another defeat. And if not, Tennessee would still get to take a shot at the number one team in the land.

There is incredibly meaningful football available in November, and not just next year in an expanded playoff field. To do that, the Vols have to finish October the way they started it. On the other side of frustration – for both the Vols and Kentucky – is an important football game. Move on, and you can keep moving on.

Go Vols.

There are so many stats to choose from to highlight the excellence of Tennessee’s defense on Saturday. But beyond just a single game, this one might speak best right now: at the halfway point of the 2023 campaign, Tennessee’s offense is ranked 18th in SP+.

The defense is ranked 15th.

Last year, the Vols finished second offensively in those ratings and 30th defensively. They were 7th and 47th in 2021. It’s a conversation we had both during and after last year’s 11-2 campaign: how good does a Tennessee defense need to be under Josh Heupel? Like, what’s good enough to win if the offense is going to score so many points?

Six games into this campaign, the questions about the defense have moved from floor to ceiling.

What’s good enough to win is, in fact, this defense when the offense is struggling. This defense, holding Texas A&M to 4.47 yards per play and 13 points.

In the second half, the Aggies went:

• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out, with the punt returned for a TD
• Field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 11
• Missed 50-yard field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 37
• Interception
• Interception

In national ratings, the Tennessee defense is:

• 11th in rushing yards per carry allowed, 2.98
• 14th in passing yards per attempted allowed, 5.9
• 10th in yards per play allowed, 4.41
• One of four teams in the country averaging 4+ sacks per game
• One of five teams in the country averaging more than 8.5 TFLs per game
• 23rd in opponent third down conversion percentage, 32.3%
• 11th in opponent fourth down conversion percentage, 29.4%
• 13th in opponent TD% in the red zone, allowing just 7 TDs on 17 attempts (41.2%)

How does all of that compare to what we’ve seen in Heupel’s first 2.5 seasons?

	2023	2022	2021
Yards Per Carry	11th	11th	36th
Yards Per Pass	14th	58th	60th
Yards Per Play	10th	48th	52nd
Sacks Per Game	4th	45th	43rd
TFL Per Game	4th	14th	7th
3rd Down Conv.	23rd	32nd	101st
4th Down Conv.	11th	24th	76th
Red Zone TD%	13th	28th	119th

And for the, “Ain’t played nobody (with a good offense)!” in the back, I’d submit that so far this year, ain’t nobody played nobody! The margins, they are quite thin.

Tennessee Opponents in SP+ Offense

• Georgia 8th
• South Carolina 17th
• Alabama 19th
• Missouri 22nd
• Florida 30th
• Texas A&M 39th
• Kentucky 43rd
• UTSA 58th
• Vanderbilt 64th
• Virginia 108th
• UConn 126th

That’s right: the already-vanquished Gamecocks of South Carolina currently boast the best non-defending-champs offense on Tennessee’s schedule. And they scored two touchdowns via a short field and a busted play.

This brings us to the next big question: will it travel? It was late arriving in Gainesville and missed the gate entirely at South Carolina last season. But it was ready and willing in Baton Rouge.

How much is a Top 15 defense worth in Tuscaloosa?

Go Vols.

In trusty SP+, this is about as good as it gets: Texas A&M is 13th nationally in those ratings, 16.9 points better than the average team. The Vols are right behind them at 14th and 16.6. On a neutral field, the Aggies would be favored by 0.3 points.

In FPI, Texas A&M would be favored by 1.0 on a neutral field; the Aggies are 15th and the Vols 17th. I’ve really come to enjoy Kelley Ford’s ratings and visuals – there the Vols would be favored by 0.2 points on a neutral field, Tennessee 15th and A&M 16th. You get the idea.

The game, of course, will be played in Knoxville, and that means it’s -3 for the Vols in Vegas as of 6:20 Saturday morning. We will indeed see just how much Knoxville is worth in a few hours.

This will be the fifth game of Josh Heupel’s tenure played in toss-up range, with the line at +/- 3. (An honorable mention to the 2021 Pittsburgh game, which closed at Vols +3.5.)

There’s actually a nice trend in these games in Heupel’s tenure, with the lines squeaking ever so slightly in Tennessee’s favor:

• 2021 at Missouri +2.5, won 62-24 – the definitive “hello there” performance, which was followed by a 35-0 lead on South Carolina, which set up what became the first of many enormous football games…
• 2021 Ole Miss +1.5, lost 31-26 – the Vols just missed their first real opportunity to get a ranked win under Heupel…
• 2021 Kentucky -1, won 45-42 – but not the second
• 2022 LSU -2.5, won 40-13 – a mammoth, program-changing performance that was then eclipsed by an even more mammoth, even more program-changing one seven days later

Heupel is 4-3 in one-possession games at Tennessee, and 3-1 in these toss-ups…where, obviously, two of them got very un-toss-up shortly after kickoff.

Historically, he also caught these earlier than his predecessors. Missouri was game five of his first season; the aforementioned Pitt game was week two. Jeremy Pruitt was +3 against the Gators at home in his fourth game. Butch Jones didn’t see a line of less than seven points either way until the Vanderbilt/Kentucky closer in his first season. And Derek Dooley’s first team didn’t see a single-digit line until November! That was -2 against Ole Miss, a game Tyler Bray and the Vols won 52-14. It was Tennessee’s best performance against the spread until that Mizzou game two years ago.

The question then becomes, what do you do from there? Going back through Phil Steele’s against the spread data, I’ve got Phillip Fulmer at 25-15 in his career in games between +/- 3 at kickoff. That’s pretty good! He was also especially good from 2003-07, when the Vols might not have had such a decisive talent advantage compared to the 90s. At the moment, 2023’s closest historical comparisons in SP+ are the 1991 (Miracle at South Bend) and 2003 Vol squads, the latter of which split the SEC East three ways with Florida and Georgia. From 2003-07, Fulmer went 13-7 in Vegas toss-ups, including a ridiculous 8-2 in 2006 and 2007.

The house usually wins; there’s not much shame in toss-ups behaving exactly that way. Johnny Majors was 3-3-1 at UT in these games during his last four seasons, including a pair of SEC Championships. The best news for Tennessee is what kind of games you’re getting into toss-up range now. Much like LSU last year – much like South Carolina two weeks ago – this one can also serve as a gateway to something even more next Saturday. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to get in +3 territory in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens today. But considering our last three trips to Tuscaloosa went +24.5, +34, and +36? All of this continues to head in the right direction…and the Vols, of course, beat Bama last year at +9.

Today, all signs point to even in what should be a great day for college football. This Tennessee team has no unique experience in a really close game; if we’re just going by possessions, A&M played their first one-possession game last Saturday by virtue of a late field goal and a failed onside kick.

But both teams are already tested in meaningful games.

And there’s plenty of that to go around today.

Go Vols.

When you have this offense – especially when it just featured Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, etc. – it’s easy to default the initial credit to the passing game. And even with a pair of interceptions and a heartbreaking injury, I thought Tennessee was good through the air Saturday night. Squirrel White had nine for 104, and the backs and tight ends combined for seven receptions. Variety may become the spice of life there as the Vols adjust to playing without Bru McCoy.

But in two other areas of the game, Tennessee redeemed its recent past and solidified a bright present.

Last year, South Carolina scored nine touchdowns in essentially ten drives. They punted once.

In Knoxville on Saturday night, South Carolina scored two touchdowns via one big play and one short field. Their other drives ended with:

• Punt
• Field Goal
• Turnover on Downs (4th & 2 at the UT 32)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Turnover on Downs (4th & 1 at the UT 35)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Field Goal
• Turnover on Downs

Spencer Rattler finished with 169 yards, his fewest since before the Tennessee game last season. And his 4.8 yards per attempt were the fewest of his entire career. It was an incredible response from Tennessee’s defense.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense ran the ball 40 times for 238 yards, right at six yards per carry. That average is the most for the Vols against power five opponents not named Vanderbilt or Missouri in the last three seasons. On the year, Tennessee averages 6.18 yards per carry, sixth nationally.

The challenge will certainly increase after the bye week, when Tennessee will face five Top 20 defenses via SP+, the best of which currently belongs to Texas A&M at #4. But through the first five games of this season, Tennessee’s backs are putting themselves in great company around here:

Tennessee Yards Per Carry Leaders, Post-Fulmer Era (100+ carries)

1. Jaylen Wright 2023, 7.13 (current)
2. Dylan Sampson 2023, 6.89 (current)
3. Alvin Kamara 2015, 6.52
4. Jaylen Wright 2022, 5.99
5. Jabari Small 2023, 5.98 (current)
6. Alvin Kamara 2016, 5.79
7. Jabari Small 2021, 5.66
8. Ty Chandler 2018, 5.48
9. Marlin Lane 2012, 5.48
10. Eric Gray 2019, 5.34

With Kamara the only back around here to average more than six yards per carry for an entire season in the last 15+ years, you can see the company this trio is currently keeping, as well as the value of the ground game in Heupel’s offense. It’s one of the most intriguing questions going forward: what’s the balance of this stable of backs behind Tennessee’s full-strength offensive line vs the quality of defense they’re getting ready to face?

That performance against South Carolina set the table for good-to-great. Credit this group for not only putting last year’s questions to rest, but establishing new answers for what this offense can be this season. Big win last week, big football on the horizon. Welcome to October.

Go Vols.

The question of Josh Heupel’s best win isn’t up for debate; the Alabama game last year is Tennessee’s best win ever if you’re under the age of 25 or so. But one of the best things about being back in the national conversation is the multitude of good wins – so many, in fact, that some of them get sent to the backs of our minds in hopes of making room for the next one.

Two years ago this weekend, Tennessee went to Missouri after a “why didn’t we play better” loss in Gainesville. It was the floodgates, rapidly: the Vols won 62-24 and certainly got our attention. But we’d seen so much for so long, etc., no one was signaling that the Vols were back by beating Missouri.

In fact, the language we used in previewing South Carolina the following week was, “It’s a big game in the way it enables other games to be big.” It’s the kind of language that found its way to this game after Steve Spurrier arrived in Columbia: while never our biggest rival, the Gamecocks became enablers on the path from good to great. Beat Carolina, and you’re still alive in the division. Beat Carolina, and your season is still on track. Or in this case, beat Carolina, and you’re 4-1 heading into a bye week.

Two years ago, Tennessee did just that, in glorious fashion both literally and figuratively depending on your love for dark mode. Noon kick, no worries: the Vols blasted out of the gates 35-0 en route to a 45-20 victory. It was an amazing, “is this really happening?!” performance, one that helped pave the way for all the great things Heupel’s teams have done.

The question of Heupel’s hardest loss is, of course, also an easy answer. A year after beating South Carolina by 25 in a game we led by 35, South Carolina beat us by 25 in a game they led by 32.

This kind of swing – one team wins by 20+, then the other team wins by 20+ the next year – is unheard of at Tennessee since expansion in seasons that didn’t involve coaching volatility. It’s only happened three times among UT’s annual rivalries in that span that I can find:

• In 2009, Lane Kiffin’s Vols beat Georgia by 29. In Derek Dooley’s first season the following year, the Dawgs won by 31 in Athens.
• In 2016, Tennessee ran way from Missouri in the second half in a 63-37 offensive explosion. The following year, Missouri blasted Tennessee 50-17; Butch Jones was let go the following day. Heupel was the offensive coordinator for both Missouri teams.
• 2021 & 2022 South Carolina

Whatever your consideration of South Carolina as a rival, the annual part is going away. These two teams won’t meet in 2024, a first since 1991. In the post-Fulmer era, Tennessee and South Carolina have split the last 14 meetings.

And in preseason, if I asked you which win you’d absolutely want the most? This game would’ve at least made the short list.

There’s an air of unpredictability about, which is in part due to how bananas good Tennessee’s offense was last year in ways that are difficult to duplicate. They still scored 38 points on 507 total yards in this one last year. What also gets sent to the backs of our brains are the ways it didn’t always come so easily, even for Heupel’s teams here, and the Vols still dominated. The second half of that 2021 South Carolina game opened with Tennessee punting four times in a row, with two three-and-outs. Carolina trimmed the gap to 38-20 and had the ball with ten minutes left. The Vols got the stop, then added on for the final margin.

It’s never perfect, but often good. How good can the Vols be offensively Saturday night? How less-than can they make Spencer Rattler, who threw seven incompletions in this game last year and has thrown just 13 this season when not playing Georgia?

That’s the fun of all of this, of course. It’s a big game. And it creates the opportunity for others to be big. I’ll miss this fun little rivalry with its short commute. It’s given us Steve Tanneyhill and Tee Martin and Lou Holtz. It’s handed us some of our hardest losses. And it’s created opportunities for new life, from Michael Palardy to Josh Dobbs to black jerseys.

I’m very excited to see what this chapter holds on Saturday night.

Go Vols.

Peyton Manning threw 9,380 passes in his NFL career. In the modern era, here’s the rest of that list for quarterbacks who finished their college career at Tennessee (via Pro Football Reference):

• Pat Ryan had 657 career attempts and made 19 starts, including Week 1 for the New York Jets in 1984.
• Heath Shuler was the third overall pick in the 1994 draft, making 22 starts for Washington and then New Orleans as injuries took their toll. Shuler had 593 career pass attempts.
• Bobby Scott had 500 career attempts for New Orleans, including a Week 1 start in 1976, and spent much of his career backing up Archie Manning.

Next on the list: Josh Dobbs, who enters the 2023 season with 85 career attempts.

He’ll also enter Week 1 as the projected starter for the Arizona Cardinals:

Sources: The #AZCardinals are expected have Josh Dobbs as their starting QB this week, with rookie Clayton Tune getting backup reps. They’ll evaluate the situation each week, but this is how it begins. pic.twitter.com/eXqXUFj7qv

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 6, 2023

He’ll join Manning, Ryan, Shuler, Scott, and Dewey Warren (1968 with Cincinnati) as former Vols to make a Week 1 start at quarterback in the modern era. That being the list, he’s the first Vol to do it since Manning, and the second since Shuler, who made his last Week 1 start in 1997.

Back in those days, Tennessee had an incredible line of quarterbacks who carried the program to new heights from 1989-2007. Shuler, Manning, Tee Martin and Erik Ainge were all drafted, while Andy Kelly won two SEC titles and Casey Clausen made two trips to Atlanta.

At this position, the Vols how have the potential for a similar lineage. Hendon Hooker continues to recover from his knee injury in November, but could have opportunities in Detroit with Jared Goff’s contract soon to expire. On campus, when Virginia punted the Vols back to the seven yard line on Saturday, I know many of us were thinking, “…I mean, let’s just see if he can. Like, just give Joe a shot on first down, and if he can’t throw it 93 yards, it’s 2nd-and-10.” And behind him is one of the highest-rated prospects the Vols have ever signed.

The mark of a great program is the way it isn’t beholden to one great individual, or one great team. It’s what we’ve seen from Rick Barnes and company in basketball, even after Grant Williams and company made their way to the NBA. And it’s what Tennessee will have a chance to do at quarterback under Josh Heupel.

Between the good old days and present glory was a long wilderness, in which no one shined a brighter light than Dobbs. (Shout out as well to Tyler Bray, who had a nine-year career as an NFL backup). Tennessee’s on-field success last fall was so transformative, it helped us view the past in healthier ways as well. And now, into the future on Sundays, Dobbs has the opportunity to continue to grow his legacy among Tennessee fans who loved watching him get his shot with the Titans late last fall.

From an NFL standpoint, Dobbs is already one of the five best quarterbacks to call Tennessee home. And he’s earned himself another opportunity now, with Kyler Murray unavailable until at least Week 5, to make more good memories – not just in the past, but in the present.

What do we do when we get what we want?

That’s been a moving target these past 15 years. Some seasons it was bowl eligibility, others just a fresh start. Just to play at all in 2020, which weirdly seems so long ago now.

Above all, of course, was hope. Always hope. Always here, when the distance to kickoff can be measured in hours. And quickly gone in many seasons for many teams.

Tennessee cycled through stages of hope in the post-Fulmer era, which at several points crossed over into stages of grief. I will still submit that the entire program itself felt particularly vulnerable during a pair of unique coaching-and-athletic-director changes.

And now here, 60something hours from Nashville, Tennessee carries the kind of hope that comes with a receipt.

In those 60 hours, it will probably feel more distant and less necessary to talk about the past, because at that point “the past” becomes 2022. That past enabled this present. And this present is real good.

I was a history major; sometimes I still can’t help myself. One of my favorite games from childhood was the last time Tennessee and Virginia met, the Sugar Bowl following the 1990 season. I was nine years old, and Tennessee scored touchdowns on its final three possessions, the last in the final minute, to win 23-22. It was great.

It was also 33 years ago, which would be like someone telling nine-year-old me about something from the 1957 campaign. I’m pretty sure my dad, who was five years old then, doesn’t even remember that one. I’m pretty sure my son, who is five years old now, has much to look forward to.

He’s got a Joe Milton t-shirt jersey. That’s part of the good of the world we live in now, where he can wear not just the QB’s number but his name, and his cousin can support Jonas Aidoo in the same fashion. They’ve got Ronald Acuña Jr. in their closets too, an incredible time to be in the Vols/Braves demographic. My biggest sports crisis is whether to buy him a new Grant Williams jersey now that he’s no longer in Boston.

This childlike way is free from the burdens of how we got here, it just enjoys the moment. And a healthy present moment can also establish healthier connections to the past. Because our sons and daughters could also buy a Josh Dobbs Arizona Cardinals jersey right now. If he indeed earns the Week 1 start, he’ll become just the third quarterback who finished his career at Tennessee to start a season opener since Pat Ryan.

Dobbs and his teams lived the highs and lows of those cycles of hope and grief more than most these past 15 years. There are some incredible line items on those seasons. And now it feels like those moments are even more free.

That’s what hope does: not just the present, but the past.

And now, in 60 hours, the future becomes the present.

There’s a beautiful interconnectedness in all of this; always is with sports. It’s always about more than just winning.

And at the same time, as we’ve shared a lot in talking about last season, the real prize in all of this isn’t winning the national championship, but being able to.

Maybe there will always be an idiot optimist in us who will need counseling if we go 14-1. Maybe. Maybe we’ll get good enough for long enough again that we’ll have the luxury of taking things for granted.

But at the start of the season, Tennessee is right where we belong: back in the championship conversation.

Make yourself at home.

What do we do when we get what we want?

Be grateful.

And enjoy every second of it.

Go Vols.

Things are slower over here these days, and I just kind of assumed the picks contest would be something we let go of…but I’ve just come to realize how much I just really enjoy running this thing. Some of my oldest friends, who may even still be floating around this site, can tell you about versions of this contest we ran over long, long, l-o-n-g email threads back in the late 90s. I don’t know how to do a football season without one. Turns out, don’t really want to either.

So: welcome to the 2023 Gameday on Rocky Top picks contest! The link will take you to Fun Office Pools, where we’ve run this game with confidence points for years and years. Same rules apply, as always: we pick 20 games each week straight up, you assign 20 points to the outcome you’re most confident in, 1 point to the outcome you’re least confident in, and away we go. Picks are due by kickoff of each game, and even if you fall behind and/or asleep at the wheel, you’ll earn just one point lower than the lowest total score that week.

Any questions, holler in the comments. Here’s the Week 1 slate, in all its glory:

Thursday, August 31

• NC State at UConn – 7:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• Florida at #14 Utah – 8:00 PM – ESPN
• Nebraska at Minnesota – 8:00 PM – FOX

Friday, September 1

• Louisville at Georgia Tech – 7:30 PM – ESPN
• Stanford at Hawaii – 11:00 PM – CBS Sports Network

Saturday, September 2

• Virginia vs #12 Tennessee (Nashville) – 12:00 PM – ABC
• Colorado at #17 TCU – 12:00 PM – FOX
• ETSU at Jacksonville State – 2:00 PM – ESPN+
• Boise State at #10 Washington – 3:30 PM – ABC
• South Florida at Western Kentucky – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• UTSA at Houston – 7:00 PM – FS1
• West Virginia at #7 Penn State – 7:30 PM – NBC
• #21 North Carolina vs South Carolina (Charlotte) – 7:30 PM – ABC
• South Alabama at #24 Tulane – 8:00 PM – ESPNU
• Old Dominion at Virginia Tech – 8:00 PM – ACC Network
• Coastal Carolina at UCLA – 10:30 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 3

• Northwestern at Rutgers – 12:00 PM – CBS
• #18 Oregon State at San Jose State – 3:30 PM – CBS
• #5 LSU vs #8 Florida State (Orlando) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 4

• #9 Clemson at Duke – 8:00 PM – ESPN

In 2021, the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was sack rate allowed. The Vols surrendered 44 sacks, 124th nationally, and UT quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of their pass attempts. That percentage was the worst in Knoxville during the post-Fulmer era.

The 2021 offensive line sent Cade Mays to the NFL, but brought everyone else back. We thought if the Vols could just be even a little better here, it could make a huge difference in the program’s overall progress.

And they were far more than a little better in 2022.

With just 27 sacks allowed on 438 passing plays from Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton, last year Tennessee had a sack rate of 6.16%. That number was in line with what Tennessee’s offense was able to accomplish in keeping Josh Dobbs upright in 2015 and 2016. And it helped produce one of the best offenses in school history in 2022.

Where might similar progress be found for 2023?

When you win 11 games and your program has made more progress in two years (via SP+) than any other SEC team in the last 30 years? It’s a short list.

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, last year the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a high percentage of their passes. Opponents hit on 62.6% of their throws last season, 97th nationally. Here again, so much overall progress has been made at Tennessee, you don’t have to go back very far to find something worse: the 2020 team allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, and the 2018 team was at 63.0%.

We looked at this two off-seasons ago, when it represented the most statistical progress the 2021 team could make. The national average in completion percentage has leveled off in the 61% range the last three seasons, still up from what we saw in college football in 2013-17. Top 10 teams in this department now complete around two-thirds of their passes.

Using that as a benchmark, here’s every Power 5 quarterback to complete 66.7+% of their passes with at least 20 completions against Tennessee in the post-Fulmer era:

Year	QB	Team	PCT	YPA
2022	Jayden Daniels	LSU	71.1%	6.7
2022	Bryce Young	Alabama	67.3%	8.8
2022	Spencer Rattler	South Carolina	81.1%	11.8
2021	Kenny Pickett	Pittsburgh	66.7%	7.9
2021	Emory Jones	Florida	77.8%	7.7
2021	Bryce Young	Alabama	72.1%	8.6
2020	Mac Jones	Alabama	80.6%	12.5
2020	Kyle Trask	Florida	71.4%	8.8
2020	Kellen Mond	Texas A&M	81.3%	8.8
2019	Kyle Trask	Florida	71.4%	10.5
2019	Jake Fromm	Georgia	82.8%	9.9
2018	Will Grier	West Virginia	73.5%	12.6
2018	Drew Lock	Missouri	70.0%	8.6
2018	Kyle Shurmur	Vanderbilt	88.6%	10.5
2017	Jalen Hurts	Alabama	66.7%	10.1
2016	Jarod Evans	Virginia Tech	71.4%	7.6
2015	Jake Coker	Alabama	77.8%	9.1
2013	Marcus Mariota	Oregon	69.7%	13.8
2013	A. Carta-Samuels	Vanderbilt	77.8%	6.7
2012	Aaron Murray	Georgia	76.9%	11
2012	Connor Shaw	South Carolina	68.8%	11.1
2010	Mike Hartline	Kentucky	70.5%	6.2

You can see how this played out three different ways for Tennessee’s defense in 2022. At LSU, Jayden Daniels completed 32 of 45 passes, but the Vols kept everything in front of them as their lead swelled. With Alabama, the Vols went shootout mode (against the eventual number one overall pick) and came out on top. And of course, at South Carolina, it went wrong on both sides of the ball.

One big difference here: the Vols sacked Jayden Daniels five times. They only got Bryce Young once, Spencer Rattler once. Of the 22 quarterbacks on the above list, how many got sacked more than twice?

• 2022 Jayden Daniels at LSU: 5 sacks
• 2018 Kyle Shurmur vs Vanderbilt: 3 sacks
• 2016 Jerod Evans vs Virginia Tech: 3 sacks
• 2015 Jake Coker at Alabama: 5 sacks

That’s a pair of comfortable wins in huge games, and as close at Tennessee came to the Crimson Tide in 15 years (plus the weirdness of the season-ending loss to Vanderbilt in 2018). Even as college football grows in passing efficiency and the Vols continue to face elite SEC quarterbacks, getting to the passer can make an enormous difference here.

In that regard, the Vols weren’t bad at all last year: 31 sacks, 42nd nationally. Tennessee dropped quarterbacks from Pittsburgh, LSU, Kentucky, and Clemson at least four times each, making a big difference in each of those ranked wins.

Here’s the opportunity: Byron Young had seven of the 16 sacks in those four wins (talk about bigtime players in bigtime games: that means every one of his sacks came in those four games last year).

Who steps up next?

In the midst of all these conversations that come with the 11-win territory – can the next QB shine as bright as the last QB, if so who’s catching all those touchdowns this time, etc. – don’t miss the few but meaningful ways this team could make progress over last season. If Tennessee is just one step better here, makes life just a little less comfortable for opposing quarterbacks (and/or the secondary makes life just a little less comfortable for receivers), Tennessee’s defense can make an significant difference in the ultimate outcome for the 2023 Vols.

How to make progress over last season is a beautifully short list.

Finding that progress anyway would be even sweeter.

Go Vols.