Author Archives: Will Shelton

One of the best, hardest lessons from the last two years: be in the moment. Sometimes you can’t rush ahead. Sometimes the past isn’t helpful. Just be here.

In our orange-colored world, it was one of those things that was hard to internalize because the 2020 football season spiraled so quickly, then led to a month of uncertainty as to who our coach was going to be. It got hard to be grateful somewhere along the way. It was a little easier a year ago this time with basketball, but still less so overall because that team started 10-1 but finished 8-8.

We got little moments of it last fall, a football team with few expectations turning into something competitive…and something fun. There’s a lot of gratitude in what Josh Heupel and those guys did in starting from the bottom.

But there’s a certain kind of gratitude that happens at the top.

Tennessee lost at Kentucky by 28 points one month ago today. Since then, they found their offense, building back to the rematch on a seven-game conference winning streak. The Vols were good. Tonight was a question of greatness.

And tonight was pretty great indeed.

The past can be helpful here:

Tennessee wins vs Kentucky:

1995-2015: 9 (O'Neill, Green, Buzz, Pearl, Cuonzo, Tyndall)

2016-2022: 9 (Barnes)

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) February 16, 2022

And the future is still of critical importance in a tournament sport. But you never know what the tournament will bring, what shots will fall, all that good stuff. All you can do is give yourself the best chance possible by moving up the bracket.

The Vols now have wins over Arizona and Kentucky. The only program in the conversation with two better wins is Alabama (Gonzaga and Baylor). So perhaps consider us Alabama, without the baggage.

Tennessee will get north in the next projections in a hurry. They’ll get an extra day’s rest before heading into the mother of all potential letdowns at Fayetteville on Saturday. There is much left out there.

But there’s something special about your team discovering its ever-expanding ceiling against one of its biggest rivals in February. Bruce Pearl found some of this magic with mid-to-late February wins over Florida in 2006 and 2007, then Memphis in 2008. He got the Wall/Cousins Calipari team in 2010.

And Rick Barnes, as noted, has been especially hazardous to the Cats. Got them in Rupp in February of 2018 to solidify the program’s return to the national stage. Got them in Knoxville and in the SEC Tournament in March the following year.

And he got them tonight, in a win we’ll remember for a long time.

Kentucky shot infinity percent in Rupp Arena, and started off much the same way tonight. Tennessee kept pace, and we had a 17-15 game less than seven minutes in.

That’s when Fulky went into the Kentucky bench, and everyone got in their feelings. We’re still there, among many others, at the moment:

#Vols’ Kennedy Chandler: Why is Kentucky’s strength and conditioning coach trying to shove Zakai when Zakai’s trying to helpl Fulky? What’s going on there? That fired us up just like LSU did. You’re not gonna punk us.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 16, 2022

He would know: he scored the next eight points. By the time Kentucky made its next bucket, the lead was 15.

When the Vols pushed it to 17 early in the second half, Kentucky hit a 9-0 run. The lead was eight at the under 12. No worries: Jonas Aidoo, of course, would start the next run. Then a Zeigler three. Then Fulky free throws. Rinse, repeat. By the time Kentucky made its next bucket, the lead was 20.

Tennessee’s offense had the same strong shooting from the game in Rupp. Tonight, it was 44.4% from the floor, 47.1% (8-of-17) from the arc, 20-of-23 (87%) from the line. But the biggest difference, by far: turnovers. It’s what leads to Tennessee’s worst basketball, including a season-high 20 of them at Rupp Arena. Tonight: eight. That’s one off the season-low.

Meanwhile, this time the Cats were held to 34.3% from the floor, 31.3% from the arc, and a 13-15 from Oscar Tshiebwe was manageable. That is, in part, because of Aidoo: 18 minutes, five points, seven rebounds, three blocks. If he’s a viable option against these guys, he’s a viable option. The Vols used him in some double-big sets we may not see against other competition. But he also got some run when Josiah-Jordan James was in foul trouble, a potential answer to, “What if that happens in March?”

Tennessee’s greatest strength is its defense, which remains so good that the Vols don’t need much on the other end. But the Vols are also so dangerous because they get what they need from so many different guys. And tonight: 18 for Vescovi, 17 for Chandler, 14 for Fulky, 14 for Zeigler.

We never know what will happen in March. We do know we celebrate wins over Kentucky anytime they come, and we’re on a stretch right now against these guys we’ve never seen before.

But one of the most satisfying things in sports is to go into one of these, “Are we good enough to compete at the highest level,” games against your biggest rival, and leave with the answer being, emphatically, “Yes.”

Appreciate the rivalry. March will come. Be in the moment.

Tonight, the moment is pretty great.

Go Vols.

Heading into the first meeting with Kentucky, we looked at Tennessee’s struggles in keeping teams off the offensive glass. It had been a common thread in recent losses to LSU, Auburn, and Alabama, and Kentucky had Oscar Tshiebwe, who can dismantle you there by himself.

Defensively, what the Vols allow in second chances is still their most telling weakness. This season Tennessee is 16-3 when opponents get single digit offensive rebounds, 2-3 when they go for 10+. It’s a problem the Vols solved in the rematch with LSU, allowing the Tigers just five second chances.

Kentucky also got just five offensive rebounds in Rupp. But, you’ll recall, that went squarely in the, “Gotta miss shots for there to be offensive rebounds,” category.

The January 15 performance remains otherwordly. In KenPom, it’s the worst defensive performance by Tennessee in 20 years, and by a healthy margin:

• One of just five games in the last 20 years where the Vols allowed 70+% from inside the arc
• One of just five games in the last 20 years where the opponent hit 95+% of their free throws
• One of just two games in the last 20 years where the opponent scored 100+ in regulation (North Carolina in the November 2006 Preseason NIT)

So sure, any preview here starts with, “Hope they don’t shoot 68% from the floor.” If Kentucky even approaches what they shot last time, they’ll win the national championship.

Let’s assume they don’t. But I wouldn’t assume the reverse either: Kentucky leads the SEC at 37.6% from the arc, a huge feather in John Calipari’s cap. The Cats are more human from two when not playing us, sixth in the league at 51.7%. But the problem there, again, is Tshiebwe, who gives it back to them so very often.

One of the most thrilling things about Tennessee’s 2019 win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament was the sense that the Vols beat a good Kentucky team at their best. Can this Tennessee team beat this Kentucky team at their non-January 15th best? Right now, Arizona is the sixth-best team the Vols have beaten in the last 20 years (via KenPom). Kentucky would make the list just behind them.

And one other thing about that Rupp Arena performance: it’s the exception to what makes for Tennessee’s best basketball offensively.

The Vols continue to not ask for a whole lot on that end of the floor:

• Tennessee is 15-1 when shooting 39+% from the floor
• Tennessee is 15-1 when shooting 29+% from three

And Kentucky is the one in both of those.

Are those numbers going to hold through the last three weeks of the regular season, through Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas twice? Can we get to the tournament talking about how little the Vols need from their shot-making because of their defense?

I continue to believe everything for Tennessee’s offense revolves around shot selection. And, under Rick Barnes, shot selection continues to revolve around ball movement. The Vols are 17-1 when they have 11+ assists – you know the one, of course – and are eighth in the nation in assist percentage.

But the one thing that will blow all of that up is turnovers, which not only negate the offensive possession, but undercut Tennessee’s massive strength on the other end of the floor. If you’re looking for Tennessee’s three worst performances of the season, relative to competition, they’re not hard to find here: 18 turnovers vs Villanova, 18 in the overtime win over Ole Miss, 20 at Rupp Arena.

Turn it over a ton against this group, get blown out. Kentucky lights the nets on fire, get blown out. And hey, maybe Tshiebwe just has an otherworldly game in him that we didn’t even need to see last time. This is the third-best Calipari team at Kentucky, and the other two won it all and were undefeated until the Final Four. These guys are very good.

But if the Vols clean it up and the Cats cool it off back toward the mean, I’m curious to see what Tennessee’s very good can do here. We already know it can beat Arizona. If Tennessee’s offense can give itself the opportunities it did last time against Kentucky, without the turnovers? I’m very curious to see what it can do tonight.

Remember being young enough that the Tuesday 9:00 PM tipoff was a blessing and not a curse?

Go Vols.

On January 15, Kentucky shot 67.9% from the floor in a 107-79 win over Tennessee. The Vols dropped to 11-5 (2-3), vanquished in three straight road tests as league play opened in Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, and Lexington.

Since then, Tennessee is 7-1, the lone loss by one point at Texas. Tonight’s 73-64 win over Vanderbilt moves the Vols to 18-6 (9-3), third place in the SEC and three games clear of the double bye.

In the aftermath of the loss in Lexington, we looked at how often Tennessee teams peak early, late, or are simply a product of their schedule. Now 80% of the way through the regular season, I’m not sure any Tennessee team has more accurately reflected the competition they’ve faced. The Vols lost to Villanova by 18, then beat North Carolina by 17 the next day. They lost to Texas Tech in overtime and at Texas at the buzzer. They have zero bad losses: each of their six defeats are to foes in the KenPom Top 20. And all of them are away from Knoxville, where the Vols are undefeated. Inside Thompson-Boling, the Vols have a pair of Quad 1 wins over LSU and Arizona.

The Vols are who the schedule says they are. And the schedule saved the best for last.

Kentucky was a Top 10 KenPom team when they routed the Big Orange. Then they were a top five team. Now, they’re decimal points away from being the best team in the country not named Gonzaga.

The Cats lost short-handed at Auburn on January 22. Since then, they won at Kansas by 18 and at Alabama by 11. They project as a one seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology.

John Calipari has been in Lexington 13 seasons now. His 2012 national champions finished with a 32.59 rating in KenPom. His 38-1 2015 squad finished at 36.91. Those two are the cream of his crop.

The current squad is next on the list (29.36).

That’s better than the 2019 squad we vanquished twice (27.57), better than the John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins group from 2010 (26.54).

Heading into the first meeting, this felt like a good Kentucky team with a great college basketball player in Oscar Tshiebwe. Now, this feels like a great Kentucky team.

Is this a great Tennessee team?

That answer might come slowly. But using the same metric, in KenPom this is still Tennessee’s second-best team of the last 20 years. The 2019 squad ended at 26.24. The current squad is at 24.11.

If they are who the schedule says they are, what will they do in these last six games? They’ll finally see the league’s two worst teams, albeit on the road, with Missouri and Georgia. They’ll play Arkansas twice in the last five games. And they’ll host two potential one seeds with Kentucky and Auburn.

The Vols are already good, already tracking a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Are they good enough to beat Kentucky or Auburn?

One thing to remember, long ago though it seems: the other team in the conversation as the best non-Gonzaga squad in the land, at least in KenPom?

Arizona.

This season may feel predictable in a good way, and we should feel good about the Vols. But if we’re wondering if we can feel great about them? No matter what you think of the metrics, if Tennessee beats Kentucky on Tuesday night? They would join Alabama with two of the best wins in college basketball this year…with, of course, none of the bad losses.

The foundation is solid. Now, for the ceiling.

Go Vols.

The win at Mississippi State gave the Vols four Quad 1 wins this year, moving their record to 4-6 against top competition. It’s clear the dates with Kentucky, Auburn, and the trip to Fayetteville will earn Quad 1 distinction. And the Hogs – winners of nine straight – could also play their way into the season finale in Knoxville being a Quad 1 showdown.

Tennessee is currently one of 29 teams with 4+ Quad 1 wins (home vs NET Top 30, neutral vs NET Top 50, road vs NET Top 75). It’s a similar resume to what we’ve seen from the Vols in their recent tournament seasons, with 2019 continuing to serve as the exception:

Vols vs Quad 1, 2018-22

• 2022: 4-6 (3+ Quad 1 games left)
• 2021: 6-6
• 2020: 3-11
• 2019: 9-5
• 2018: 6-7

Tennessee’s losses remain particularly elite, with each of those six teams still in the KenPom Top 20. And #nobadlosses puts this Vol squad in particularly good company.

There are only nine teams in the country who are undefeated against Quads 2-4: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Houston, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and North Carolina (the Tar Heels are 0-7 vs Quad 1, 17-0 against everyone else).

The 2019 Vols were also undefeated against non-elite competition, finishing the entire season with six losses, all to KenPom Top 20 foes. The 2018 Vols are a better comparison for this team: 6-7 vs Quad 1, plus a bad loss at Georgia. The 2020 Vol squad that was likely headed to the NIT pre-pandemic had three losses in Quads 2-4. And last year, Tennessee’s six Quad 1 wins on a shortened schedule were somewhat offset by two losses in Quads 2-4.

If the Vols get through Vanderbilt on Saturday – and the Commodores are playing better basketball in the last two weeks – Tennessee will enter the final six games with three or four Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols are on the four line in the Bracket Matrix, but have moved up to three in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. Again, the three line is a great goal: avoid the best teams in the nation until the Elite Eight.

This Tennessee team continues to have the second-best KenPom rating of any Vol squad in the last 20 years, behind 2019. There’s work to do to get to that level. But there’s a clearer path to get toward the three line, giving the Vols an increased opportunity to make the program’s second ever Elite Eight.

If you’d been wondering what the Vols would look like on a day when they got hot from three, behold. I don’t know how many teams in the country are beating Tennessee when they shoot 43% from the floor, 14-of-27 (52%) from the arc, and 13-of-14 (93%) from the line. But it’s a very short list.

The Vols stayed at 13th in KenPom, but their rating jumped up more than a point to 23.81. At the moment, that makes them the second-best Tennessee team of the era, going back 20 years. Our strength of schedule continues to amaze: ninth overall in KenPom, with four Top 10 opponents under our belt already and games to come with Kentucky and Auburn. And if you want to believe these Vols are who the schedule says they are, today was an excellent example of what they can do when not facing one of the best teams in the nation.

How impressive was today?

• Fourteen made threes is the most for the Vols against major conference competition in at least the last 12 years (which is how far back the gamelogs go at sports-reference). Last year Tennessee’s high was 11 in the loss at Auburn. The 2019 squad made a dozen against Gonzaga and Purdue. This team hit 14-of-27 against Presbyterian, then did it again today.
• 50+% from three and 90+% from the line: the 2019 team did it against Arkansas, if you round up, with 11-of-18 from the arc (61.1%) and 35-of-39 (89.7%) from the line. The only other example in the last 12 years is the one we hoped we’d see at some point this year: the Kansas game from last season, when Tennessee went 8-of-13 (61.5%) from three and 16-of-17 (94.1%) from the line. The Vols beat the Jayhawks 80-61, an “Oh yeah, they can do this,” performance.

And in the midst of lineup diversity and Olivier Nkamhoua’s departure, the Vols went to the now-vaunted three point guards + Josiah + Fulky group. Nkamhoua’s injury came on a shot that put UT up three with 16 to play. Zakai Zeigler did the next part by himself, back-to-back threes to put the Vols up nine. It was still nine when the Vols went to that lineup.

Nine minutes later, when John Fulkerson checked out, the lead was 24.

Josiah Jordan James played 36 minutes, turning in a J.P. Prince special with 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 steals, and 2 assists. Should Nkamhoua need to miss time, Josiah’s ability to play that many minutes is a plus in Tennessee not having to put Fulky and Plavsic on the floor at the same time.

Zakai Zeigler had 18 points and turned a close game into a comfortable one, before that lineup turned it into a blowout.

#Vols’ Zakai Zeigler threw up during the timeout in the middle of his 10-point, two-minute bender today at South Carolina.

Hit two threes. Gamecocks called TO. Zeigler spit up on Barnes, threw up trash can, came back to huddle, told Barnes he was fine. Then hit two more buckets.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 5, 2022

Don’t lose Kennedy Chandler in the flow: 11 points, 10 assists, and just one turnover. And South Carolina ain’t the easiest defense to do that against.

Santiago Vescovi played just 23 minutes with foul trouble, but still hit 3-of-8 from deep and finished with 13 points. And John Fulkerson gave 23 minutes, including that long stretch in the second half, finishing with eight points.

It was, quite simply, as good of an offensive performance as we’ve ever seen from this team. And the defense was what we always see.

Tennessee goes to 16-6 (7-3), and heads to Starkville (Wednesday 9:00 PM) for what should be a stiffer test. I’m not sure this win or the next one would do a ton for bracketologists at-large. But for Tennessee’s best basketball on the offensive end, this was a big win. And they got it done by relying more fully on a lineup that looks likely to make them a real threat to anyone in March.

Go Vols.

Since getting blown out at Rupp Arena, the Vols are 4-1 and undefeated in SEC play. Each of those games had their moments of uncertainty in the second half, and each time Tennessee responded with a strong close. It’s what you want from your basketball team: playing their best ball not only at the end of the year, but the end of the game.

What’s so interesting about that to me is how many different looks the Vols have used to get that done.

Here are the crunch time lineups in Tennessee’s last five games:

• Vanderbilt: Zeigler, Vescovi, Powell, Fulky, Uros
• LSU: Chandler, Vescovi, Zeigler, Josiah, Uros
• Florida: Chandler, Vescovi, Zeigler, Josiah, Fulky
• Texas: Zeigler, Vescovi, Bailey, Josiah, Nkamhoua
• Texas A&M: Chandler, Vescovi, Zeigler, Josiah, Fulky

Santiago Vescovi has appeared in every close, to no surprise. Josiah Jordan James was injured at Vanderbilt and didn’t finish, but has closed all the others. Also appearing in every one of these: Zakai Zeigler.

I don’t read that as an indictment of Kennedy Chandler; the Texas group was on a 16-0 run, so yeah, you leave those guys in the game. To my recollection, Victor Bailey hasn’t been part of the crunch time lineup all year otherwise. But he was getting it done at Texas, so they rolled with him to the finish. Chandler struggled with five turnovers at Vanderbilt, but remains a key ingredient of what the Vols are doing throughout.

What looked like a novelty act against North Carolina has become part of Tennessee’s best basketball: three point guards on the floor at one time. Closing time has thus included Josiah at the four, and then the big most suited to the moment and the match-up. These Vols are versatile, and dangerous behind just that combination when you include Justin Powell, or Bailey’s work at Texas.

Last year, Tennessee’s uncertain lineups were one of their greatest weaknesses. This year, I think it’s a strength.

Tennessee’s Rotations 2019-2021

In 2021, with all its challenges, the Vols played a glorified seven-man rotation:

• 25-29 minutes per game: Vescovi, Pons, Josiah, Fulky, Springer, Keon, Bailey

Those seven guys, in multiple combinations, provided almost everything for the Vols last season. E.J. Anosike played double-digit minutes in Tennessee’s first eight games, but four or fewer in the last five. He’s currently averaging 17 and 8 at Cal State Fullerton. The Vols would give Nkamhoua some run for a couple of games, then he’d disappear back to the land of four minutes or less.

The starting group was deadly on defense and inconsistent on offense. But it was also incredibly thin: get Tennessee in foul trouble, and the Vols went to lineup wheel of fortune. In the NCAA Tournament, with no John Fulkerson and Yves Pons in foul trouble? This team was quickly finished, searching far and wide on the bench but finding no answer: Anosike, Nkamhoua, and Uros played a combined 20 minutes and scored one point.

In 2020, Lamonte Turner averaged 34 minutes per game before exiting in December. From there, it looked like this:

• 30-34 minutes per game: Bowden, Pons, Vescovi, Fulky, Josiah
• 16 minutes per game: Jalen Johnson
• 10-11 minutes per game: Gaines, Nkamhoua

The Vols asked an enormous amount from their starting five, including the newly-arrived Vescovi. Jordan Bowden played 34.4 minutes per game; only Josh Richardson under Donnie Tyndall (36.3) played more going all the way back through the Bruce Pearl era. The bench gave what they could, but you never felt like one of those guys was going to change the game. Davonte Gaines at George Mason, by the way, averages 11 points and 9 boards.

In 2019, Tennessee’s third-ranked KenPom offense looked like this:

• 31-33 minutes: Bone, Grant, Admiral, Lamonte
• 28 minutes: Bowden
• 24 minutes: Alexander
• 12 minutes: Fulky, Pons

Lamonte was sixth-man of the year in the SEC, but you know his crunch time work well. He essentially gave the Vols an excellent offense-defense closing group with Alexander, who ended up being the most valuable piece of Tennessee’s puzzle. He was injured in 2018 and missed the Loyola loss. And once he fouled out in overtime against Purdue in 2019, the Vols gave up a 6-0 run at the rim that essentially ended it.

But this group knew their roles and played them exceptionally well, an eight-man group with two-way versatility in crunch time.

However, I’m not sure we’ve seen anything like this mix in minutes:

Tennessee’s Current Rotation

• 30 minutes: Chandler, Vescovi
• 26 minutes: Josiah
• 20-22 minutes: Fulky, Nkamhoua, Zeigler
• 18 minutes: Powell
• 11-13 minutes: Uros, Bailey, Huntley-Hatfield

That’s ten guys.

You see the balance show up in the scoring column too. Vescovi averages 14 a night, Chandler 13.4. Then the next four guys – Nkamhoua, Zeigler, Fulky, and Josiah – average between 7.4 and 8.7 points per game. Chandler takes the most shots on the team, but he’s also 47th nationally in assist rate. As a team, the Vols are ninth in the country there.

Spot the defensive weakness. The three point guards are ferocious in creating turnovers, all three rating in the Top 100 nationally in steal percentage. Fulky (99th) and Nkamhoua (103rd) are right there in blocked shot percentage. And Josiah shows up in the Top 200 on both lists.

Meanwhile, Justin Powell is now shooting 42.1% from the arc. And Uros has given the team the necessary mindset at the start of the game, and will continue to be a factor down the stretch depending on the match-up.

Will the ten-man group get trimmed to eight or so? That probably depends on Bailey and BHH as much as anybody else. Can they provide a spark, as Bailey did at the close of the Texas game? Is Fulky healthy enough and Uros out of foul trouble enough to not need a few minutes from Huntley-Hatfield? These are the two guys you’re least likely to see in crunch time right now, but it doesn’t mean they won’t be in the rotation in March.

Since the PB&J squad, we’ve seen one Tennessee team that had to ask far too much from its starting five, and one that could go seven deep but got in incredibly rough water as soon as they needed an eighth. This Tennessee squad rolls ten deep, with eight you’d feel great about if the tournament started today. They haven’t closed with the same five in crunch time two games in a row in this stretch. But everything they’ve put on the floor in the last four minutes has worked. And you can see a tourney-friendly lineup emerge with three point guards, Josiah, and the best big available.

I think there’s a good chance the versatility we’re seeing from this team is much more of a strength than a weakness. Maybe they’ve got some blowouts in them between now and Kentucky’s return on February 15. But the next time we see them in crunch time, I’ll be curious to see if we get more of the same faces, or if the trust continues to be spread around.

Go Vols.

Let’s start with some good news:

• Average KenPom rank of Tennessee’s previous 10 opponents: 41.9
• Average KenPom rank of Tennessee’s next 10 opponents: 74.0

The Vols went 6-4 in the previous 10, earning Quad 1 home wins over Arizona and LSU along with four Quad 1 road losses. The upcoming last 10 games feature the two huge showdowns in Knoxville with Kentucky (February 15) and Auburn (February 26). But road tests in Starkville (February 9) and Fayetteville (February 19) should also check the Quad 1 box.

We come to February believing the Vols probably are who the schedule says they are: each of our six losses are road/neutral to a KenPom Top 20 foe, and the Vols are undefeated against such foes in Knoxville. North Carolina has righted the ship for the moment, making that a third Quad 1 win for Tennessee.

Both KenPom and Bart Torvik project the Vols to finish 7-3 in these final 10 games, ending the regular season at 21-9 (12-6). That conference number should be enough to earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament. One big question as bracketologies begin to heat up: how will the selection committee treat the best SEC of our lifetimes?

If the Vols hit their projected 21-9 mark, they’d be around the midpoint of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the KenPom era:

Tennessee’s Tournament Teams in the Regular Season, 2002-22

• 2008: 28-3
• 2019: 27-4
• 2006: 21-6
• 2010, 2018: 23-7
• 2007: 22-9
• 2022: 21-9 (projected)
• 2021: 17-7
• 2014: 20-11
• 2009: 19-11
• 2011: 18-13

However, if you rate those teams in KenPom:

Tennessee’s Tournament Teams in KenPom, 2002-22

1. 2019: 26.24
2. 2014: 23.69
3. 2022: 22.97 (current)
4. 2018: 22.27
5. 2008: 22.17
6. 2021: 19.95
7. 2006: 19.44
8. 2010: 18.50
9. 2007: 18.29
10. 2009: 16.48
11. 2011: 12.41

Play-for-play, this Tennessee team is in the conversation with any of the non-2019 versions for the second best Vol squad of the last 20 years. Far more of those plays are getting made defensively than offensively with this group, but it’s still enough to make them one of the best teams we’ve seen around here.

Ultimately this will all get decided in March, of course. Last season, with all its covid weirdness, isn’t one you’d trade for any of the next three on that KenPom list, even though the 2021 Vols would’ve been slight favorites on 2006, 2007, or 2010. All the 2022 version can do is give themselves their best chance to advance, and continue to try to find their best basketball going forward. I’ve yet to figure out if playing lots of different lineups in crunch time against Top 20 foes is a good thing (versatility!) or a bad thing (inconsistency!).

But if they are who the schedule says they are, #nobadlosses will make this next portion seem a little more friendly, starting tonight with Texas A&M.

The Vols are currently a four seed in the Bracket Matrix and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. Same as we said last year: there’s particular value in getting to a three for a program that’s only been to the Elite Eight once. If you can get to three, you won’t see the very best teams in the land until the round of eight. Good news/bad news there for Tennessee: Kentucky and Auburn might be two of the very best teams in the land. Arizona might make three.

It may feel like the argument for the Vols getting to a three will depend on getting another huge win over the Cats and/or Tigers in Knoxville, but we’ve got some time until then. That means this next stretch – A&M, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt – is a great opportunity to find more consistency on the offensive end. Do that, stay in the Top 25, and give yourself a chance to move up in the national conversation when you host the Cats two weeks from tonight. Tennessee can’t solve all their problems or get north in a hurry in your favorite bracketology. But by putting more notches in the win column in the SEC, they’ll give themselves a chance to be considered as part of an elite upper crust, that could truly send five teams from this conference among the Top 16 seeds.

We’ll find out about that soon with the projected bracket reveal from the NCAA; the Lady Vols were the last number one seed in theirs. That’ll be a great indicator of how the committee truly sees the SEC, and in particular Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama.

The chances for trajectory-changing wins are still out there. Until then? Good old fashioned regular wins can still do wonders for UT’s seed in this league.

Kansas and Texas Tech played a double overtime thriller last night, with the Jayhawks securing the win and the new top spot in KenPom’s defensive strength of schedule ratings. This rating is essentially, “How good are the defenses you’ve played against?”

The Vols slid to number two, but could move back to the top in the next couple of weeks. Tennessee’s overall strength of schedule will ease up a bit, but it will take a second on the defensive end. Along with playing Texas this weekend (17th in KenPom defense), the Vols’ next three league games are Florida, Texas A&M, and at South Carolina. The SEC’s best defenses are LSU (1st KenPom), Tennessee (5th), Auburn (12th), and Kentucky (30th). But right behind them, you guessed it: A&M (31st), South Carolina (33rd), and Florida (44th).

After the loss at Rupp, we asked if these Vols might simply be a reflection of the schedule they’ve faced so far. Then Tennessee had a relatively strong offensive performance against the nation’s best defense on Saturday, giving the Vols a second Quad 1 win and providing hope such a thing can continue to be possible going forward.

I don’t know where the Vols are going to end up in terms of the quality of defenses they’ve faced. But I’m pretty sure it’s going to rate fairly high on this list:

Tennessee Defensive Strength of Schedule, 2002-2022

Year	KenPom Defense SOS
2022	2
2021	53
2020	45
2019	28
2018	18
2017	3
2016	41
2015	21
2014	29
2013	37
2012	71
2011	28
2010	35
2009	21
2008	41
2007	17
2006	20
2005	11
2004	34
2003	28
2002	1

(NCAA Tournament seasons in bold)

The KenPom era stretches back 20 years now, which includes everything from Buzz Peterson to the present at UT. Peterson’s first team faced Marquette, St. John’s, Memphis, Louisville, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Syracuse in the non-conference. They lost Ron Slay to a knee injury and finished 15-16, first in the nation in defensive strength of schedule.

And you’ll see Rick Barnes’ second team on there from 2017, which caught Wisconsin and Oregon in Maui before facing North Carolina and Gonzaga. South Carolina’s Final Four team finished third in the nation in defensive efficiency that year; Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama also all finished in the Top 10. Those Vols finished 16-16.

Among Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 20 years, none have faced a defensive challenge like this. The closest comparisons are Bruce Pearl’s first two teams, which were bolstered in part by playing John Calipari’s Memphis teams and Barnes’ 2006 Elite Eight squad at Texas. And Tennessee’s 2018 SEC Championship squad lost to the eventual national champs from Villanova and faced an SEC of increasing depth.

Those three teams all finished between 17-20 in defensive strength of schedule. But this year, the SEC looks better than we’ve ever seen. We’ve faced the nation’s best defense twice from LSU, plus the usual pair of games with Kentucky. And the Vols drew four Top 20 defenses in the non-conference in Texas Tech (4th), Arizona (9th), Texas (17th), and Villanova (18th).

Tennessee’s offense has struggled and may again, though the steepest portion of the climb appears to be over. The only easy outs on defense in this league don’t grace our schedule until late February.

But the Vols are also facing the deepest SEC and the toughest defenses we’ve seen one of our tournament teams go up against.

If you can come through all that with your confidence intact – and Saturday was a big one for that – you can hopefully put yourself in position to weather any storm in March.

If you were to imagine the most satisfying way to beat Will Wade and LSU, you might’ve come close today. Wire-to-wire beatdowns are fun, and we did look to be on our way there for a minute. Close game decided at the buzzer carries its own satisfaction, a moment that could live forever. But there was something incredibly satisfying about jumping to a 14-0 lead, then LSU getting close, only to be denied, repeatedly, by Tennessee. Through all the chipiness, which the Vols gave as good as they got:

Uros Plavsic: "(LSU) wanted to win the fight. We wanted to win the basketball game"

(pause)

"I think we did both, actually."

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 23, 2022

That’s Uros Plavsic, whose season high last year was four points. He played five minutes against Villanova and five at Colorado. He found his way to 12 points and seven rebounds in Baton Rouge, a Tennessee comeback that came up short.

He did not come up short today: 12 points, six boards, and a crucial block to silence one of those would-be LSU runs. Will Wade did not agree with the call.

Will Wade has not agreed with Tennessee. The 2018 Vols waxed his first LSU team 84-61 in Knoxville. Since then, the Tigers had won four in a row, including a game we did not agree with in Baton Rouge the following year. That was followed by Santiago Vescovi’s debut, where he made six threes and committed nine turnovers. That was followed by a 78-65 win in Baton Rouge last year, then the Tiger victory two weeks ago.

There have been plenty of emotions swinging this way and that in those two weeks. Tennessee gave up 107 points at Rupp and sought to change their vibe. LSU lost Xavier Pinson in the UT game and has now lost three in a row. Wade took center stage after the Alabama defeat, which got him plenty of camera time today…which ultimately, I’m going to say Tennessee fans enjoyed.

And this is a win to be enjoyed.

A five-point halftime lead was 12 at the under 12, then 15 with nine to play. LSU came knocking, cutting it to six with five to go. But then: Fulkerson for two, Uros with the block, Zeigler for three, then those two with four straight free throws. LSU sat on 45 points from the five minute mark until 1:27 remained. And ultimately, it’s a 14-point victory for the good guys.

It would’ve been one thing to just stay white hot from the arc, which is how the Vols started. But the final number landed at 10-of-28 (35.7%): good, really good for Tennessee, but nothing crazy. The Vols didn’t need insanity to win.

They needed their defense, alive and well after Lexington: 14 turnovers for the Tigers, and only eight offensive rebounds allowed. But they also needed something more on the offensive end, especially against LSU’s defense.

Coming into league play, we thought there would be nights when Kennedy Chandler just took over. We thought there would be nights when the three ball indeed did the damage. And we’d just seen a healthy John Fulkerson put the team on his back against what very much appears to be a number one seed.

Since then, we haven’t seen any one of those things manifest itself again. Chandler and Fulkerson missed the opener at Alabama with covid. Before today, UT’s only league game where they hit over 33% from the arc was the one where they gave up 107 points. Tennessee’s offense was struggling.

What did it do well against LSU’s number one defense today? The biggest thing to me: get good shots. Plan A may not be Kennedy Chandler or John Fulkerson or heave and hope. I think Plan A will look more like making sure every shot is a good one.

Today, the Vols had 18 assists on 22 made shots. Kennedy Chandler was 4-of-13 from the floor, but had six assists to one turnover. And Santiago Vescovi was money from three, finishing with 16 points (5-of-11 from the arc), five assists, and six rebounds.

Barnes: "I don't know if we took a bad three tonight. We have to take them on our terms and what fits the scouting report."

— Ryan Schumpert (@rschump00) January 23, 2022

Right now, no team in the nation has played better defenses than Tennessee. The Vols are first in KenPom’s defensive strength of schedule rating. But in passing the stiffest test there tonight, the Vols don’t just survive to figure it out against weaker defenses going forward. Tennessee got an offensive performance good enough to beat the nation’s best defense, without weirdness, from the full cast of characters. It’s a rotation that tightened to include both 10 minutes from Justin Powell and seven from Jahmai Mashack.

When we say the SEC is good, we don’t have the right words for it. Because it’s never been as good as it is right now in my lifetime. In our league preview on December 28, we looked at the number of SEC teams to finish in the KenPom Top 20. The league has only had five teams finish in the Top 20 once: 2006, with Florida (1), LSU (11), Tennessee (17), South Carolina (19), and Arkansas (20).

Right now: Auburn (5), Kentucky (6), LSU (11), Tennessee (13), Alabama (16). Florida, next on our schedule, feels like a break at 29th.

This thing is going to be a fight every night. Auburn is both so far in front and so advantaged in their own schedule, maybe it’s a good idea to stop worrying about trying to win the league and keep worrying about getting better. But right now, the Vols are a three seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. It’s a good goal: a three keeps you away from the very best teams in college basketball until the Elite Eight.

The Vols are going to see plenty of those very best teams in this league. But tonight, the Vols made you believe they’ll continue to be one of them.

Great win. Go Vols.

I read John Calipari’s postgame quotes after the game on Saturday, curious to see how he described his team shooting 68% from the field.

I’m more concerned with how we play. I’m trying not to make this game-to-game. If you do that, you torture yourself and your team. Are we getting better? Our history is that our teams play better at the end of the year. That’s the history. So, is this team getting better? Are individual players getting better? That’s my focus.

Calipari from UK Athletics

That sentiment can feel like a contrast to a criticism of Rick Barnes, that his teams are better earlier in the year than in March. It’s indeed easier to criticize when you just lost by 28 points. But the whole “playing our best basketball at the end of the year” thing is hard to come by.

Stretching back to the start of Bruce Pearl’s time, how many Tennessee teams were peaking at the right time?

It happened twice with Pearl due to players returning from injury. That was obviously the case with Chris Lofton in 2007, coming back from an ankle sprain when the Vols were 15-8 (3-5), freshly blown out by the defending champs in Gainesville on February 3. With Lofton back, Tennessee finished the regular season 7-1, including wins over Kentucky and Florida in Knoxville. This team still stumbled immediately in the SEC Tournament, but advanced to the program’s second ever Sweet 16 and had 1-seed Ohio State dead to rights from there.

No Tennessee player in my lifetime was as impactful as Lofton, but Brian Williams’ return at the end of the 2010 regular season made that group snap together with the final puzzle piece. Those Vols were 20-7 (8-5) after a loss at Florida, but beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville and dominated a good Mississippi State team in Starkville to finish 23-7 (11-5). They played their way to the finals of the SEC Tournament – more on that in a second – and, of course, made the program’s only Elite Eight.

And no group was better at peaking at the right time than Cuonzo Martin’s 2014 squad: 16-11 (7-7) and on the hottest of seats after a February 22 loss to Texas A&M. They won four blowouts in a row to close the regular season, lost to #1 Florida in a close game in the SEC semis, then won three games coming out of Dayton and almost made the Elite Eight. In KenPom, they were 26th on February 22 and sixth in the Sweet 16.

Other Tennessee teams who made the NCAA Tournament ran into clear walls at various points. Pearl’s first team was 20-4 and locked up the SEC East with a dramatic win in Gainesville. And from there, I think they were just out of gas: a pair of home losses to end the regular season 1-2, then one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, then a narrow escape against 15-seed Winthrop, and finally bested by Wichita State in the Round of 32. More dramatically, the 2011 team was 7-0, then never won more than three games in a row the rest of the way in Pearl’s final season, finishing 12-15 from there.

And sometimes, it’s more about the schedule than anything else. Take Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad, which was 25-2 (11-1) and number one in the land after beating Memphis on February 23. From there, they finished 6-3. But the losses came by three points at eventual four-seed Vanderbilt, and by one point to eventual nine-seed Arkansas in the tornado tournament. They got dominated by Louisville in the Sweet 16, for sure. But in those final nine games, they also beat Kentucky at home, won at Florida, and beat a criminally underrated Butler team in the second round of the tournament. I’m not sure they peaked too early, though it’s certainly hard to top winning at #1 Memphis. I think a portion of that had to do with who they were playing when.

If you look at Rick Barnes’ three NCAA Tournament teams at Tennessee, I think they fall into each of these categories.

Almost one year ago to the day, the Vols were 10-1 (4-1) and ranked sixth in KenPom. A shocking 75-49 loss at Florida was the first step of an 8-8 finish, with Tennessee never winning more than two games in a row the rest of the way, trading wins and losses every night from February 10 to the end of the regular season. For what it’s worth, Calipari called last year a throwaway year in the postgame on Saturday when asked about the value of the home crowd at Rupp being back.

The 2019 squad started 23-1 (11-0) before they went to Rupp. They finished 8-5 to the end. But every one of their losses was to a Top 20 team in KenPom; before that February 16 game at Rupp, they played just two of those teams all year (lost to Kansas, beat Gonzaga). And in those final 13 games, Tennessee still beat Kentucky twice, and dominated KenPom #21 Mississippi State twice. It’s not a fun memory, but consider the absurdity Purdue had to get from Ryan Cline to win that game. I don’t think the 2019 team peaked early. I think the schedule revealed more about them.

This could also be true for the current Vols: five losses, all to teams in the KenPom Top 20. Along the way, the Vols also beat KenPom #8 Arizona and #24 North Carolina. We’ve got two more weeks of scheduling madness – at Vandy, LSU, Florida, at Texas – but in February and March, the Vols will currently only face two Top 25 KenPom teams, both home games vs Kentucky and Auburn.

We’ve also seen a Barnes team play its best basketball at the right time. In 2018, the Vols were 19-7 (9-5) after an 11-point loss in Athens, the second defeat in three games after the win at Rupp. It felt like a blown opportunity to win the SEC and earn a high seed. Instead, Tennessee won their last four regular season games, including a big one over Florida and the title-clincher over Georgia. They played their way to Sunday in the SEC Tournament and lost a close one to Kentucky. And they got Sister Jeaned when Kyle Alexander was injured against Wright State. Nonetheless, that team finished 7-2 with a five-point loss to Kentucky and three bounces on the rim against Loyola.

Sometimes it’s the wall. Sometimes it’s the schedule. And sometimes, you find your way to your best basketball.

There’s a lot left to learn about this team, but a 28-point loss isn’t a defining moment. This, too, is common:

• 2022: at Kentucky by 28
• 2021: at Florida by 26
• 2019: at Kentucky by 17
• 2018: at Alabama by 28
• 2014: at Florida by 26
• 2011: vs Michigan by 30
• 2010: vs Kentucky by 29
• 2009: at Kentucky by 19
• 2008: vs Texas by 19
• 2007: at Kentucky by 19
• 2006: vs Oklahoma State by 16

Every one of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 16 years has lost a game by at least 16 points. The 2008 squad got blasted by Rick Barnes and Texas in November. Our Elite Eight squad lost to Kentucky by 29 on Selection Sunday. The 2018 SEC champs lost in Tuscaloosa after winning at Rupp by almost 30. It happens.

Have these Vols hit a wall? Is it just the difficulty of our current schedule? We’ll see what answers come in the next two weeks, then if this team can find the consistency never available last year in conference play.

And does Tennessee have better basketball out there?

I said this before: I wanted us to play our best game today, but I think we’re going to be better a month from now. We’re still in good shape, but we’re going to find out about a lot of different things. I think some way, somehow, we’ve got to change the vibe with our team. What that may be? I will determine that more after I watch this tape.”

Rick Barnes