Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Georgia tonight.

What to Watch

Challenges: The Bulldogs tend to hit a high percentage of their shots. In addition, they are exceptional on the offensive glass, and they know how to create chaos by forcing turnovers.

Happy thoughts: Although they’re generally active in the thievery trade, the Bulldogs must have a guilty conscience or something, because whatever they steal, they tend to give back with interest. Also, Georgia’s less-than-stellar defense should mean a decent shooting night for a Tennessee team still lacking consistency in that department.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 12.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 140.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 76, Georgia 64.

KemPom’s projection is exactly that (Tennessee 76, Georgia 64), which equates to an 87% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 75, Georgia 65) with 10 comps. Using all games as comps, it predicts a higher-scoring game and a bigger margin for the Vols: Tennessee 84, Georgia 71.

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Hmm. These guys can shoot, and they get a fair amount of offensive rebounds. They don’t really defend very well, though, and they like to give the ball away.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Like I said, these guys can shoot. They’re not quite up to the standard of Colorado and Florida, but they lead the pack of Vanderbilt, Alabama (gulp), Arkansas, and Missouri.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Free turnovers!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. Elite-level offensive rebounding for the Bulldogs. Our hearts don’t generally get pierced by o-boards (but see Ole Miss), but that’s something to watch for sure.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Okay, not bad. Among prior Vols’ opponents, Georgia is most like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at getting to the line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols sometimes shoot well and sometimes don’t. Fortunately, Georgia’s defense should pave the way for a “sometimes shoot well” night.

On the other end, the Bulldogs usually shoot pretty well, but will be going up against an octopus with boa constrictors for appendages, so it could be tougher sledding than usual. Yes, that sentence includes a sea creature, a snake from the American West, and the elements and transportation indigenous to Anchorage. You’re welcome.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Well, shoot. The Bulldogs know how to force turnovers, too. Let’s just give the ball to each other and see who wins!

Fortunately, Georgia’s offense is much more generous than the Vols’. The odd thing is that the Bulldogs go to all that trouble to pull off a spree of exceptional heists but then just leave the valuables on the front lawn at night. But we’ll take it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh, look at all of those second chances for both teams.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee, although the Vols are fouling much more now than they were earlier in the season.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Ole Miss tonight.

What to Watch

Happy thoughts: The Rebels haven’t shot particularly well over the course of the season, and the Vols’ shooting defense has the potential to make them look downright silly this evening. Combine that with a posse of elite-level burglars and an advantage at getting to the free throw line, and Tennessee should get what they want tonight.

Challenges: But the Rebs are a rival gang of elite burglars themselves, and they appear to have an advantage on the offensive glass as well, so this is a no-coasting zone for the Vols.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 124.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 64, Ole Miss 60.

KemPom projects a 5-point win for the Vols (Tennessee 63, Ole Miss 58), which equates to a 64% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is slightly more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 69, Ole Miss 61). The Vols are scoring 111% of what their opponents usually allow, and allowing only 87% of what their opponents usually get.

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Tennessee looks better across the board, with the exception of offensive rebounds. That one is close enough to essentially be a push.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Ole Miss looks most like Tennessee Tech and Cincinnati in effective field goal shooting percentage.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Florida and Mississippi State here.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Hmm. Another very good offensive rebounding team. Most like Arkansas. The good news is that among other good offensive rebounding teams, only Florida has resulted in a loss, and that may have been for other reasons.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like App State at getting to the free throw line, and not as good as the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols dropped shots against Kansas, but it’s going to take several games like that to erase a season’s worth of shooting woes. Ole Miss’ defense shouldn’t make progress in that department too difficult this evening.

On the other end, not only do the Rebels shoot poorly, the Vols’ defense has the very real potential to make them look downright silly.

https://giphy.com/gifs/baby-funny-11PVuEm7Osdjoc

Turnover %

Conclusions

Hey, look. It’s Ocean’s 11 versus the Night Fox. We shall see about that, especially since we have our stuff locked up a little tighter than do the Rebs.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Okay, a possible slight advantage here for Ole Miss. Both teams are decent on the offensive glass, but the Rebels are slightly better, and the teams look pretty much the same on the defensive end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Jayhawks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: The Vols appear to have an advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. It also looks like they have a distinct advantage in shooting defense, which is good because . . .

Challenges: . . . Tennessee’s shooting has run away from home. Or it’s on Rumpsringa or something. It’s gone, is what I’m saying. Like Al Pacino’s cash. Fortunately, it looks like it might have eloped with Kansas’ shooting defense. Maybe they’re seeing a fertility specialist together? Have I over-milked this metaphor? Yes? Okay!

Although the two teams are clones on the offensive glass, Kansas appears to have an advantage in defensive rebounding.

Predictions: The line is not yet out, but KenPom projects a 2-point win for the Vols with a score of 66-64 and a 57% chance of winning. Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, using 10 comps, likes the Vols by 6 (Tennessee 67, Kansas 61). Using all comps, it’s Tennessee 73, Kansas 68.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and both Tennessee and Kansas have been in a bit of a slump.

So, without accounting for opponent impact (see below for that), Kansas shoots better from three (no surprise there, right?), and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better. Vols have a slight edge at getting to the free throw line, but rebounding looks even.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Kansas looks most like Missouri, Vanderbilt, and App State.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Alabama, App State, and Missouri in turning the ball over. Not bad, but not especially good, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Twinsies! Most like Florida and Texas A&M among prior Vols’ opponents.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh. They’re really not good at getting to the line. Most like Colorado and Vanderbilt here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Goodness, fellas. Time to put a poster on a pole because we’ve gone and lost our stroke. Fortunately, Kansas’ defense appears to be missing as well. And Kansas isn’t much better at shooting, but they’ll be going up against Tennessee’s defense, which remains safely at home on the sofa.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Vols are still doing pretty well at protecting the ball and exceptionally well at relieving their opponents of their most prized possessions. Kansas is not particularly good at either of those things, so chalk this up as a distinct advantage for the good guys.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As I noted earlier, Tennessee and Kansas are identical twins on the offensive glass. However, the Jayhawks’ defensive rebounding appears to be better than Tennessee’s, so give this one to the Clown Birds. I don’t know how they jump with those puffy shoes, but hey.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee gets to the foul line on a pretty regular basis, but Kansas is good at defending without fouling, so we’ll just have to see how that shakes out. On the other end, the Jayhawks don’t get nearly as many trips to Freeland, but the Vols have been fouling more often lately. So let’s consider this category a double shrug, meaning it could well be the deciding factor.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: In most categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like several teams that Tennessee has already beaten. Plus, the Vols appear to have a distinct advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. Keep reading.

Challenges: In many categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like the teams to which Tennessee just lost. In the midst of an uncharacteristic two-game skid, what should have been an advantage for Tennessee in turnovers has suddenly sprung a giant, gushing leak. Patching that thing pronto will be especially important this evening because the Bulldogs are exceptional on the offensive glass.

This game may simply come down to which team can earn the most extra opportunities — the Vols through turnovers or the Bulldogs through offensive rebounds.

The line is Tennessee -9.5, and with an over/under of 129.5, Vegas projects a score of something like Tennessee 69, Mississippi State 60. KenPom’s projection is also 69-60, Vols, which translates into an 81% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by one additional point (Tennessee 70, Mississippi State 60). Using only the two closest comps, it’s Tennessee 72, Mississippi State 64.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and Tennessee is currently on a skid in many categories.

Hmm. More even than I was hoping. The Bulldogs shoot better from three, but they also allow opponents to hit more of them, so that could even out.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: From the standpoint of effective field goal percentage, the Vols have played a lot of teams that look nearly identical to Mississippi State. They beat all of them, with the exception of the rematch against Missouri during the aforementioned skid.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Uh-oh. I see a theme developing here. Among prior Vols opponents, the Bulldogs are most like Saint Joseph’s, Florida, and . . . Missouri. That would be just fine, thank you very much, except for the car fishtailing at the moment.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. This is not the best time to have to deal with the best offensive rebounding team we’ve played so far this season.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Florida at getting to the free throw line. Also not the best news at this time.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really struggling to hit their shots, but fortunately, Mississippi State doesn’t appear to present too much of an obstacle to getting back in the groove. On the other end, it may be approaching time to drop the “elite” from the description of Tennessee’s defense, but they’re still plenty good. But see The Skid.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Just a few games ago, the Vols were exceptional at not turning the ball over. Now, their numbers are still decent but far from exceptional, thanks to an all-you-can-eat turnover binge during The Skid. They are still exceptional at forcing opponents into turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

When the Vols have the ball, things look pretty even on the boards. On the other end, though, the Bulldogs appear to have a decided advantage. They’re going to earn extra shots for themselves with offensive rebounds. The Vols can’t also give them extra opportunities via turnovers.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Mississippi State defends well without fouling, so trips to the free throw line for the Vols could be few and far between. On the other end, it looks like business as usual.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Missouri Tigers tomorrow night.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: When these two teams last met, Tennessee dominated. They won primarily on the strength of turnovers, excellent shooting, and terrific defense. While the shooting tends to ebb and flow, turnovers and defense appear to be pretty consistent and reliable characteristics of this team, the last game against the Gators notwithstanding.

The bad news: On paper, Tennessee and Missouri are almost strikingly similar, and they are exceptional at getting to the free throw line and on defense, the last game against the Vols notwithstanding. And Tennessee went Jekyll and Hyde earlier this week and somehow turned all of their pretties into big, fat uglies against the Gators. The last time out, Tennessee played well and Missouri played poorly. If both teams are on, this contest should be much, much closer. And the Vols are plenty capable of turning in a clunker.

The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 6 and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Missouri 62, which translates into a 71% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 7 (Tennessee 67, Missouri 60).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That looks remarkably even. Tennessee does appear to protect the ball better than Missouri, although that certainly wasn’t the case against Florida earlier this week.

Here’s how things played out the last time these two teams met:

The Vols dominated that game. Rebounding and getting to the free throw line were even, but Tennessee won on turnovers and shooting percentages on both ends of the floor.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Tennessee opponents, Missouri’s effective shooting percentage is most like that of Colorado and Arkansas.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Saint Joseph’s, Cincinnati, and USC Upstate. But Florida is the next-best.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Cincinnati on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: These guys know how to get to the line. Only Texas A&M (among prior Vols’ opponents) is better.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Yikes. A little defense for you, and a little defense for me. Both teams really make it difficult on opposing offenses. Looking at those numbers, it should be the case that Tennessee’s offense struggles more than Missouri’s, but that’s not how it turned out the last time they played.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Turnovers were a big factor in the last matchup, and they could be again, as the Vols both protect the ball well and force opponents into a lot of turnovers, while Missouri appears to be generally bad at doing anything about it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

On the boards, Tennessee should be able to create an advantage for itself by eating up more offensive rebounds than usual. Under the other basket, things look pretty even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee is getting to the free throw line surprisingly (to me, anyway) well, and Missouri does like to foul. And although the Tigers generally make a ton of trips to the stripe, they’re going up against a Tennessee team that does a pretty good job not fouling. Missouri did get six more trips than Tennessee the last time out.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Florida Gators tomorrow night.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Gators are somewhat turnover-prone, and the Vols’ defense is likely to inflame that a bit. Tennessee also appears to have a distinct advantage on the boards at both ends of the floor, and Florida’s propensity to foul will likely put Tennessee at the free throw line more often than usual. Plus, any advantage the Gators may have should be mitigated by the Vols’ terrific defense.

The bad news: The Gators shoot well, and if they are hot, they can make it a game.

The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 3 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Florida 67, which translates into a 61% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 13 (Tennessee 75, Florida 62). For the last game against Vanderbilt, the Machine predicted a 21-point Vols win and a score of 78-57. Tennessee won by 20, 81-61.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Knee-jerk analysis: Pretty even on offense, but, as you’d expect, the Vols’ defense is much better. The Gators are also more likely to turn the ball over. Rebounding and free throws look basically even if you look at the teams in a vacuum. But see below for the opponent impact.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Florida shoots about like Tennessee, and about like Colorado among prior Vols’ opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and App State in the turnovers department.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Missouri on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Hmm. Between Missouri and Alabama in getting to the free throw line, but not especially like either one of them.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The usual story here. Tennessee needs to improve its shooting, and Florida will present some resistance in that regard, but on the other end, the Vols are going to really make it difficult for the Gators to do as well as they usually do. Bottom line, Tennessee better than usual, but Florida worse.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee is still really excelling at turnovers, both in protecting its own and stealing its opponents’. The Gators aren’t bad at creating turnovers, but they’re teetering on bad at giving them up.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

That looks like a major advantage on the o-boards for the Vols and a less-pronounced advantage at the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Another huge advantage here for the good guys, as the Gators are likely to usher the Vols to the free throw line quite a bit. On the other end, Florida doesn’t get there especially often, and Tennessee isn’t likely to help.

Go Vols.

UPDATE: Game postponed due to COVID-19 concerns within the Vanderbilt program. We’ll keep this up for Saturday’s game between the same teams, as that one is still on for now.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Vanderbilt Commodores tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Vols should have decided advantages in almost every facet of the game this evening, especially on defense, in turnovers, and at the free throw line.

The bad news: Tennessee and Vandy are about equally as good at rebounding the ball.

Vegas has the Vols as 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 137.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63.

KenPom likes the Vols by 12 and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 61, which translates into an 87% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols to cover easily, by 21 (Tennessee 78, Vanderbilt 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Knee-jerk analysis: This looks even on the boards, but the Vols appear to have a decided advantage everywhere else. Tennessee is currently No. 10 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the ‘Dores are No. 137.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Vanderbilt shoots about like the Vols. Colorado is the most similar prior opponent in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Alabama and Missouri when it comes to turnovers.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Basically like Colorado on the offensive boards. Also similar to Texas A&M.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Who doesn’t like free stuff? Vanderbilt.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols shouldn’t have much trouble hitting their shots tonight. Vanderbilt? Well, they’re probably going to have some trouble.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ooh, look! Free turnovers! And they’re mine, all mine! I love turnovers!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Yes, even with the defensive interference, we’re looking at an even game on the boards on both sides of the floor tonight.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee’s still not really getting to the free throw line all that often, but Vandy may make it a bit easier this evening. And on the other side of the floor, the Commodores are too proud to accept your stinking charity anyway.

Go Vols.