[UPDATE 3.14.21] We’ve updated this post following Thursday’s action. A coin flip between Kentucky and Mississippi State went the other way by a point, but changes nothing about the remaining projections.

[UPDATE 3.13.21] And now we’ve updated following Friday’s action. No surprises Friday (except for a sucker elbow or two), so we’re still pinning our hopes on a probably-undermanned Vols team pulling an even bigger upset Saturday afternoon against a rolling Alabama squad.

[UPDATE 3.14.21] The Vols lost their opportunity to upset Alabama Saturday, and so won’t get a chance against LSU today. Shame, too, as the machine would have liked them to win that one. As it is, it’s predicting Alabama to beat LSU for the tournament championship in addition to the regular season championship.

For you busy types: The most likely path for the Vols to win the SEC Tournament this week would be to win the games they should be favored to win, win as a slight underdog to Alabama, and have Arkansas lose to a slight underdog in Missouri on the other side of the bracket.

Now for those of you holding warm cups of coffee:

We haven’t been publishing the results of the GRT Hoops Statsy Preview Machine this season because it’s still an angsty teenager. It has real promise, but it’s still in that frightening stage where it will make you beam with parental pride one minute and squirt zit juice onto the mirror the next.

Since I started tracking it back in early January, the machine has projected the correct winner about 69% of the time. That may sound low until you realize that literally hundreds of games are decided by a single possession. Against the spread, the machine currently at 52.8%. When its projection deviates from the Vegas spread by at least 9 points, it’s 55.99%, and when it deviates by at least 20, it’s 73.91%. Unlike in football, there does not appear to be a “sweet spot,” meaning it’s results get better as its projections get further away from the Vegas spreads. I’ve been tracking the results of the machine based on the two best comps, the five best comps, the 10 best comps, and all comps and found that the 10 best comps version almost always gets the best results. In some cases, all comps is slightly better. What I haven’t been able to track yet is what happens if it only uses the 10 most recent comps. I suspect that will improve the results, but it’s yet to be tested.

So, take all of that for what it’s worth, but I’ve run the SEC men’s basketball bracket through the machine to see what it thinks. The results are below and point to a path where Tennessee could hoist the trophy on Sunday. For easy reference, here’s the 2020-21 SEC men’s basketball tournament bracket with all of the tip times and broadcasts.

Wednesday, March 10

VU 79 TAM 68	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
12 Vanderbilt	13 Texas A&M	Vanderbilt	52.8%	VU 79 TAM 68

[UPDATE: 3.11.21] So far, so good.

Thursday, March 11

OM 76 SC 59	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
8 Kentucky	9 Mississippi State	Kentucky	51.9%	MSU 74 KY 73
5 Florida	12 Vanderbilt	Florida	75.1%	FL 69 VU 63
7 Missouri	10 Georgia	Missouri	75.1%	MO 73 GA 70
6 Ole Miss	11 South Carolina	Ole Miss	86.7%	OM 76 SC 59

The odds are pretty good that the chalk holds today, although it looks like that 8 vs. 9 matchup between Kentucky and Mississippi State could really go either way. Sounds funky, right? But the Wildcats needed double overtime to beat the Bulldogs back on January 2, so maybe it’s not so weird. But wait, haven’t they gotten a lot better since New Year’s? I suppose, but they are still 4-5 since February and 1-2 in their last three outings.

[UPDATE: 3.12.21] Yep, the Kentucky-Mississippi State game was basically a toss-up, as the Bulldogs won by a single point. With the exception of being just on the other side of that coin-flip, the machine earns a pat on the back for this day.

Friday, March 12

LSU 76 OM 73	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
1 Alabama	8 Kentucky	Alabama	76.9%
1 Alabama	9 Mississippi State	Alabama	76.9%	AL 85 MSU 48
4 Tennessee	5 Florida	Tennessee	61.5%	TN 78 FL 66
2 Arkansas	7 Missouri	Arkansas	61.5%	AR 70 MO 64
3 LSU	6 Ole Miss	LSU	71.5%	LSU 76 OM 73

It’s chalk all day long on Friday, although Tennessee looks vulnerable to me just because no number is trustworthy when it comes to the Vols this season.

Surprisingly, Arkansas may also be somewhat vulnerable to Missouri Friday afternoon. The Hogs have been rolling (do Hogs roll?) as of late, but most of their February win streak has come against unranked teams (with the notable exception of No. 6 Alabama.) Also, Arkansas needed overtime to beat Missouri on February 13. So watch that one. It could have important implications for Sunday.

[UPDATE 3.12.21] Mississippi State beating Kentucky by one point on Thursday changes nothing but the names going forward.

[UPDATE 3.13.21] Yep, chalk all day long Friday. Missouri was unable to pull off the upset against the Hogs, much to our distress. But we’ll worry about that if we are able to get past Alabama at 1:00 Saturday on ESPN.

Saturday, March 13

AL 73 TN 68	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
1 Alabama	4 Tennessee	Alabama	55.6%	AL 73 TN 68
2 Arkansas	3 LSU	Arkansas	71.5%	LSU 78 AR 71

This is where the numbers say Tennessee bows out, but they’re not especially confident about it. Like every game since mid-January, it all depends on which Vols team shows up. They’re only a slight underdog, and if it’s the right team at the right time, this is where they could get over the hump.

[UPDATE 3.13.31] This morning, the machine likes the Vols less than it did when the original predictions were made Thursday morning. It currently has Alabama winning by 6 and giving them a 72% chance of winning. Vegas, however, is slightly more optimistic, putting the line at Alabama -4.5, a 66% chance of winning. We’ll see. Fulkerson is doubtful.

[UPDATE 3.14.21] Tennessee looked like they might get it done against favorite Alabama Saturday, but alas, the Tide caught up and did the good guys in. LSU did pull off the upset against the Hogs, though, so that’s the first real miss for the machine in the tournament.

Sunday, March 14

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %
1 Alabama	2 Arkansas	Arkansas	55.7%
1 Alabama	3 LSU	Alabama	77%

Assuming this is the championship matchup, it should be a good one. Our machine likes the underdog to win a close one.

[UPDATE 3.14.21] Although the machine liked 2 seed Arkansas over 1 seed Alabama, it does not like 3 seed LSU over the Tide at all. We’ll see.

What ifs

[UPDATE 3.14.21] With the lost opportunity against Alabama Saturday, there are no more what ifs for the Vols. I’ve left everything below for the record.

What if Tennessee gets past Alabama on Saturday and meets Arkansas on Sunday? The Hogs would have a 71.5% chance of winning that one, according to our machine. Bad news.

Okay, but what if Tennessee makes it to Sunday and meets a Missouri team that knocked out Arkansas on Friday? That, my friends, would give the Vols their own 71.5% chance of winning. Good news.

And what if it’s LSU representing the other side of the bracket on Sunday? Tennessee would have a 55.6% chance of winning. Maybe kinda good news?

So . . . anything can happen, of course, but the path with the fewest thistles and snakes appears to be the following:

• Tennessee beats Florida Friday, wins as a slight underdog to Alabama on Saturday, and advances to Sunday.
• Meanwhile, Missouri knocks Arkansas out Friday, and either Missouri or LSU make it to Sunday.

As long Arkansas does not emerge from the other side of the bracket, the Vols would only need to win one game as a slight underdog.

Go Vols.

Candidate for picture of the year up there, all the way down to the perfect placement of the Power T on the ball.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Auburn tomorrow.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Auburn averages over 16 turnovers per game and will likely have more than that against a disruptive Tennessee defense.

But, but, but: The Vols have been turnover-happy themselves as of late and could give that advantage right back if they don’t get that corrected.

Score Prediction

The line isn’t out yet, but KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 73, Auburn 69, which equates to a 62% chance of winning.

Our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 77, Auburn 69).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Auburn is not especially good at shooting defense, at least inside the arc. Bad at turning the ball over. Good on the offensive boards.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Weird. If you look at the baseline up there, it looks like Tennessee and Auburn are basically the same at shooting the ball, except that Auburn is slightly worse from three. But here, when it’s “effective field goal percentage,” Auburn’s quite a bit better, just behind Alabama. Not sure what to think about that, to be honest. Maybe they’re inconsistent, or maybe they do really well against bad defensive teams and struggle against good ones, with some outliers muddying things up.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Auburn appears quite careless with the ball. Tennessee’s numbers in this regard probably look better than they are, as it feels like they’re on a real skid lately.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Tigers are elite on the offensive glass.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Auburn gets to the free throw line at a pretty good clip.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so Tennessee’s struggling offense is going up against Auburn’s struggling defense. Got it.

On the other end, Auburn’s offense is pretty good at getting the ball in the bucket, but the Vols’ defense should make things more difficult for them than usual.

Turnover %

Conclusions

These numbers make it look like the Vols should win the turnover battle decisively. However, the numbers showed the same thing for the Vandy forecast, and although Tennessee did force the Commodores into 19 turnovers, they also gave up 17. The Vols need to do a better job there.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As good as Auburn is at getting offensive rebounds, they’re decidedly not good at getting defensive rebounds. This looks like it could even out and nullify itself.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

There’s been a lot of discussion about Rick Barnes’ adherence to the notion that it’s still important to be able to score from all three levels. Nobody’s arguing about three-pointers and layups; the issue is the mid-range jumper. I’d defer to Barnes on that, of course, but I do wonder how many free throw attempts are sacrificed at the altar of open mid-range jumpers.

In any event, the Vols’ season-long numbers are pretty good here, and Auburn tends to foul a lot, so it could be a good day at the stripe for the Vols tomorrow. On the other end, Auburn knows how to get there as well, and Tennessee’s committing more fouls now than it did early in the season.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Vanderbilt tonight.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Vandy’s poor shooting defense should allow the Vols’ inconsistent offense to have a good night, and Tennessee’s defense should result in another poor shooting night for Vandy. All of that, plus the Vols should be able to generate more turnovers than usual and get to the free throw line often.

But, but, but: We’ve used a lot of “shoulds” over the past several weeks that have turned into “didn’ts.” Plus, Vanderbilt appears to have an advantage on the offensive glass, and any good feelings that might come from a good offensive night could merely be a result of playing a less-than-stellar defense. Is it possible that what we’ve been calling inconsistency is really just an inability to score against good defenses? Stay tuned!

Score Prediction

Vegas has the Vols as a 7.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 141, figures the score to be something like Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 67.

The last time out, Tennessee beat Vandy, 81-61. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 66, which equates to a 73% chance of winning. Unfortunately, that’s about what the projection was for the second game against Kentucky, which the Vols lost by 15. Those guys have a good defense, though.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 12 (Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Vandy is not especially good defensively, which should be good news for the inconsistency problem. On the other hand, it might also hide the issue by suggesting that the Vols’ offense has fixed itself. What if the thing we’ve been calling inconsistency is really just an inability to score against good defenses?

Last time out

Here’s what happened the last time these two teams met:

The Vols shot really well against the Commodores in their last matchup and also kept them well below their shooting averages.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among the Vols’ prior opponents, Vanderbilt is most like Missouri and Arkansas. And also Georgia, as that’s a pretty tight bunch.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys will turn the ball over.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Not bad on the offensive glass and pretty much a push with the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Vandy is most like Florida and App State among Vols’ prior opponents at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So yeah. The ‘Dores don’t defend well, which should give a boost of confidence to a middling Vols’ offense. On the other end, Vandy is a pretty decent shooting team, but will be going up a Tennessee defense that still does well fairly consistently.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The disparity in giving the ball up and taking it away is not especially pronounced when the Vols have the ball, but is striking on the other end. Tennessee should be able to steal several additional opportunities by forcing turnovers against a Vandy squad prone to doing so anyway.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks like a slight advantage for Vanderbilt on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that, if they want to, the Vols should be able to get to the free throw line almost at will.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Kentucky tomorrow.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Kentucky is the worst-shooting team of all of the Vols’ opponents to date. They’re also extremely careless with the ball and nothing special at getting to the free throw line.

But, but, but: The Wildcats are solid on the offensive glass, and despite their struggles this season, they are still a really good defensive team. What might a good defensive team do to an offense searching for consistency? Let’s see!

Score Prediction

You’ll recall that the last time these two met, Tennessee won 82, 71. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 68, Kentucky 61, which equates to a 75% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 70, Kentucky 60) with 10 comps and by 12 with all comps (Tennessee 80, Kentucky 68).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Those defensive numbers look pretty good for them, but most everything else is coming up Vols.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Wow. The worst shooting team on our schedule? Yes!

Turnover %

Conclusion: Wow. Bad at turning the ball over? Yes!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, they’re good at getting second chances.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Not terrible at getting to the stripe, although not nearly as good as the Vols. Let’s see how the teams’ respective defenses might impact those numbers.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Despite Kentucky’s well-documented struggles this season, they’re still a pretty solid defensive team, which can mean trouble for a Vols’ offense well-known for its inconsistency.

On the other end, though, hoo-boy that’s a huge advantage for the good guys.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Wildcats are not likely to steal but are oh-so-likely to give the thing away, especially to a team like Tennessee that is proficient at forcing turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Odd. Kentucky is decidedly not good at defensive rebounding, but nipping at the heels of elite on the offensive glass. The funny thing is that the Vols’ advantage under their own basket is more drastic than the ‘Cats advantage under theirs. (When I say “advantage” here, I don’t mean to suggest that either team is going to get more rebounds than the other team under their own bucket, just that they should get a higher-than-normal percentage of their own missed shots.)

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

If these numbers hold, the Vols should be able to get to the line more often than the ‘Cats.

Go Vols.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Wednesday.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against South Carolina tonight.

What to Watch

Oh, good: With the exception of offensive rebounding (see below), South Carolina is struggling in all of the key Four Factors. There are huge disparities between what the Vols generally do and what the Gamecocks generally do, and those disparities should result in a relatively comfortable Vols victory. Those differences are especially pronounced when the Gamecocks are shooting against the Vols’ defense, when the Gamecocks are trying not to turn it over to a thieving Vols squad, and when the Vols’ offense is forcing the issue and getting to the foul line.

But, but, but: Apart from the Vols’ own consistency problems, South Carolina is extremely active on the offensive glass and could earn a frustrating number of second chances and leverage them into a closer contest than it should be.

Score Prediction

Vegas has the Vols as 10-point favorites, and with an over/under of 142, the anticipated score should be something like Tennessee 76, South Carolina 66.

KemPom’s projection is Tennessee 75, South Carolina 65), which equates to an 83% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 15 (Tennessee 78, South Carolina 63) with 10 comps and by 14 with all comps (Tennessee 80, South Carolina 66).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

The Vols are better everywhere except the offensive glass.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among the Vols’ prior opponents, South Carolina is most like Cincinnati and Texas A&M. In other words, not especially good at getting the ball into the basket.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Similar story here; most like Cincinnati and Mississippi State, and not especially good.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: This, however, is a very different story, as the Gamecocks are extremely good on the offensive boards, currently tied with Georgia and not far off Mississippi State. In this category, South Carolina will be one of the three best we’ve played.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: And back to the other story. Not good at getting to the free throw line. Most like Colorado and USC Upstate.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Tennessee’s inconsistency on the offensive side of the court has produced a very mediocre effective shooting percentage. Fortunately, South Carolina’s defense shouldn’t make things worse tonight. On the other end, that is an absolutely huge disparity with a team that struggles to find the bottom of the net going up against a team that is very good at keeping you from doing it.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Each defense appears to have an advantage over its opponent’s offense when it comes to creating turnovers. Fortunately for the Vols, SC’s advantage is not nearly as pronounced as Tennessee’s, which is massive. Expect the Vols’ offense to turn it over some — especially if the Gamecocks ramp up the pressure and the traps — but also expect the Vols’ defense to go racing the other direction quite often after forcing a ton of turnovers themselves.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As good as South Carolina is at grabbing offensive rebounds, their advantage over Tennessee’s defense on that end of the court isn’t as big as it is for the Vols on the other end. Make no mistake, expect to be frustrated at the number of second chance opportunities for Carolina. But Tennessee should have an opportunity to mitigate that problem by doing pretty much the same thing under their own basket.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Okay. If they want to, tonight could be a good time for the Vols to re-establish themselves at the free throw line.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against LSU tomorrow.

What to Watch

Challenges: LSU shoots as well as anybody the Vols have played, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they look like an even matchup on the offensive glass and at getting to the free throw line.

Happy thoughts: When you factor in the teams’ respective defenses, Tennessee does appear to have an advantage in most of the Four Factors categories, although each of those apparent advantages is pretty slight.

Score Prediction

The line isn’t out yet, but KemPom’s projection is Tennessee 74, LSU 73), which equates to a 54% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 78, LSU 70) with 10 comps and by 6 with all comps (Tennessee 83, LSU 77).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

So that looks pretty even, except that their shooting offense is slightly better and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: These guys shoot even better than Georgia. Basically, they’re tied with the best-shooting team that Tennessee has played so far this season in Florida, to whom they lost.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Okay, so they don’t turn the ball over, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: This basically amounts to decent on the offensive glass. Essentially the same as Florida and Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well, crud. These guys are good across the board, including at getting to the free throw line. Let’s see what adding in the respective defenses does to the analysis.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The shooting analysis is essentially the same as it was for the Georgia game except that LSU is even better on both ends. The Vols should be able to have a decent afternoon shooting the ball, and they’re going to need that spectacular defense because LSU is a real threat to shoot well and put up points. The Vols do appear to be the better team in this category, but the difference isn’t nearly as pronounced as it has been for most previews.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ugh, all of this stuff is way too close. What those numbers don’t know is that the book is out on the Vols, and opponents can crank up those turnovers numbers just by pressuring our ball handlers. The only possible solution to that I can think of is to try to get the ball to Keon and let him dribble around the traps as they’re coming and before they get there.

To make matters worse, LSU’s offense isn’t nearly as generous as Georgia’s. As with shooting, the Vols do appear to be the better team, but not by much.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This could be an opportunity for the Vols. They are decent on the offensive glass, but LSU’s defensive rebounding isn’t up to the same standard as the rest of their game. On the other end, LSU has a similar advantage, but it is not as pronounced.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh again, too close to call for Tennessee getting to the line, and LSU could make some hay there.

Go Vols.