Read: Slow-cooked lessons from the South Carolina game

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from The Athletic ($):

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Tennessee’s depth chart for Missouri game, via 247Sports. Good news, as it suggests the missing pieces from the secondary last week against South Carolina will be returning this week.
  2. With better practice numbers, Vols hoping to build chemistry, via 247Sports
  3. Johnson Named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week, via UTSports
  4. Transcript of Jeremy Pruitt’s Monday presser, via UTSports
  5. Pass Distribution in Week One, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  6. Tennessee-Missouri: Head-to-head statistical rankings, via Gameday on Rocky Top

Tennessee-Missouri: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Again (we’re saying this a lot), be wary of the numbers, especially Missouri’s, as they’ve only played Alabama so far.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

It would appear that the Vols should have an opportunity in the passing game, although Missouri’s bad numbers so far against the pass should probably be attributed to having played Alabama. Still, they were better against Alabama’s rushing attack than they were against the Tide’s passing attack, so maybe there’s something to it.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee did not do well against South Carolina on first downs, and Missouri did quite well defending first down against Alabama. Same story in the run game. If Missouri makes Tennessee one-dimensional by shutting down its running attack, that could spell trouble for the Vols.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Pass to open up the run.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Against South Carolina, Tennessee did well defending the run, on first down, and getting into the Gamecocks’ backfield to disrupt plays. Against Alabama, Missouri struggled against all of that.

Where’s the danger?

The Vols did not do well defending the pass against South Carolina, and that appears to be Missouri’s strength.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

The Vols appear to have a distinct advantage on defense, although, once again, Missouri is probably better than its numbers suggest right now due to only having played Alabama at this point. Still, if Tennessee shores up its pass defense, they should be in relatively good shape.

Special teams

Link to table

Small sample sizes here, so any conclusions are suspect.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Again, it’s hard to draw too many firm conclusions here, but one game in, the Vols have protected the ball better than Missouri has. On the other hand, Missouri has been the more disciplined team from a penalty perspective.

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – After Week 4 (1)

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories. A word of warning: With the pandemic causing conferences and teams to start their respective seasons at different times, the stat rankings are comparing teams that have played to teams that haven’t, so beware any hard, fast, and confident conclusions until much closer to the end of the season.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Passes intercepted, tackles for loss, sacks allowed, passing yards per completion, passing offense

Appears to need improvement: 3rd down conversions (which also suggests that the bottom in this new world is somewhere around 70, at least this week), first downs offense (this is surprising to me), red zone offense, rushing offense

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Team sacks, team tackles for loss, rushing defense, first downs defense

Appears to need improvement: Passing yards allowed, red zone defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Honestly, it’s hard to say at this point, although the punt return and punt return defense (and maybe kickoff return) numbers are probably good news even now.

Appears to need improvement: Net punting, although two of the three guys from Thinking Out Loud last night gave Vols punter Paxton Brooks credit for winning the game with that rugby punt.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Not giving the ball to the other team

Appears to need improvement: Penalties per game, taking the ball from the other team

Expected Win Total Ballot: After South Carolina

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of what happened this past weekend. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page. Here’s how everything shakes out for me.

My assessment

As we said on the GRT Podcast this week, the Vols’ 31-27 win over the Gamecocks was a Big, Beautiful Ugly. There are some things that the team definitely needs to get corrected — third down conversions, defending the slant route, etc. — but there were glimpses of something special, and the team did avoid blowing up in an upset minefield.

My expected win total for this season is now 5.8.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After South Carolina: 5.8

Details: I have Vanderbilt at 90%, Arkansas at 80%, Missouri and Kentucky at 70%, A&M at 50%, Georgia and Auburn at 40%

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

There is no shame in losing to an already-humming Alabama team. I feel pretty much the same about Missouri as I did last week, so I’m keeping them at 70%.

Georgia

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

So, 37-10 looks better on Monday than it did during the game on Saturday. Georgia’s offense is having problems, and, in my opinion, it has more to do with the offensive line than anything else. I also think that is hard to fix in-season. Still, I am moving them only slightly toward the green, from 35% to 40%.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

It’s hard to say what to do with this information. You feel better about Kentucky, but worse about Auburn. Maybe. For now, I’m changing Kentucky from 60% to 70%.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

I had Alabama at 25%, but I’m moving them down to only 20%. The way they looked like they hadn’t missed a beat, that may still be too high.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-5th in the SEC West

These guys looked better earlier than I thought they would, so I’m moving them from 90% to 80%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

We have the same problem with Texas A&M/Vanderbilt as we do with Kentucky-Auburn. For now, I’m docking A&M more than giving Vandy credit. I’m moving the Aggies from 40% to 50%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

See Kentucky above. I’m keeping the Tigers where they were, at 40%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

See A&M above. I’m keeping the Commodores where they were, at 90% for now.

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

Oof. These guys look maybe as tough as Alabama. Moving them from 30% to 20%.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now? You can post your current thoughts and details here, but don’t forget to submit your ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 168 – Vols are 1-0

Tennessee’s 31-27 win over the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday night was a Big, Beautiful Ugly. Even with an allergy to third-down conversions on offense and an inability to cover the slant route on defense, it was a great win to kick off the 2020 football season. Will and I hit on all of it in this episode and also take a quick and early look at Missouri.

Subscribe!

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Google Play Music

Listen here

Hounddog3 races out to the lead in Week 4 of the 2020 GRT Guessing Game

Here’s the play-by-play for this week’s Guessing Game.

Week 4 – South Carolina

Round 1

Q: Who scores first for the Vols? (30-100 points available)

A: Heh. The Head Gamemaker did not anticipate the Vols’ first score being a quarterback sneak. So, it then became a matter of who scored first after that. And, of course, that was inside linebacker Henry To’oTo’o on a pick six, another answer the Head Gamemaker failed to anticipate. Eric Gray was next, so that and the generic “running back” answer are the available answers that get the points.

These folks get 50 points for the safe answer:

  • Joel Hollingsworth
  • Raven17
  • Will Shelton
  • LTVol99

And these folks get 100 points for specifying the running back:

  • Hounddog3
  • JWheel101
  • Harley
  • Isaac Bishop

Mushrooms (30 points): Hounddog3 and JWheel101

Bananas (-30 points): Harley and Sam Hensley

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 1: Counter 5 launched by Sam Hensley
  • No new bolts

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. Hounddog3
  2. JWheel101
  3. Isaac Bishop
  4. Harley
  5. Joel Hollingsworth
  6. Raven17
  7. Will Shelton
  8. LTVol99
  9. Evan
  10. Jayyyy

Round 2

Q: The Vols’ offense averaged 362 yards per game against SEC competition last year. Do they get more or less than that today? (30-100 points available)

A: Tennessee’s offense got more than 362 yards (they got 394)

These players got this one right and got 30 points for it:

  • Hounddog3
  • Isaac Bishop
  • Harley
  • Joel Hollingsworth
  • Raven17
  • Will Shelton
  • LTVol99
  • Jayyyy
  • Mitchell K

Mushrooms (30 points): Raven17 and Josh Farrar

Bananas (-30 points): We regret to inform Jayyyy that he got both bananas this round.

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 1 (launched by Sam Hensley): Counter 4
  • New Blue Shell No. 2 (launched by Sam Hensley): Counter 5
  • New new bolts

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Hounddog3
  2. JWheel101
  3. Isaac Bishop
  4. Raven17
  5. Harley
  6. Joel Hollingsworth
  7. Will Shelton
  8. LTVol99
  9. Josh Farrar
  10. Mitchell K

Round 3

Q: Which true receiver (not a RB or a TE) makes the first completion for the Vols?

A: Some other true receiver makes the first Vols completion (it was Ramel Keyton)

The following players got 30 points for guessing this one correctly:

  • Will Shelton
  • Josh Farrar
  • Jayyyy

Mushrooms (30 points): Hounddog3 and Evan

Bananas (-30 points): JWheel101 and Joel Hollingsworth

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 1 (launched by Sam Hensley): Counter 3
  • Blue Shell No. 2 (launched by Sam Hensley): Counter 4
  • New Blue Shell No. 3 (launched by Sam Hensley): Counter 5
  • No new bolts

Final Standings After Week 4:

Rank Player Points
1 Hounddog3 190
2 Isaac Bishop 130
3 Raven17 110
4 Will Shelton 110
5 JWheel101 100
6 Harley 100
7 Josh Farrar 90
8 LTVol99 80
9 Joel Hollingsworth 50
10 Evan 33
11 Mitchell K 30
12 Jayyyy 0
13 RockyTop5 0
14 Sam Hensley -30

Bulldog 85 wins Week 4 of the 2020 GRT Pick ‘Em

Congratulations to Bulldog 85, who finished first in Week 4 of the 2020 GRT Pick ‘Em with a record of 15-3 and 160 confidence points.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 Bulldog 85 15-3 160 0-0
2 Tennmark 17-1 159 24-17
3 MariettaVol1 15-3 157 33-20**
3 keeps corn in a jar 17-1 157 21-14
5 PAVolFan 17-1 156 28-24**
5 Knottfair 17-1 156 31-17
5 birdjam 17-1 156 27-21
5 cnyvol 17-1 156 27-17
5 Anaconda 17-1 156 24-20
5 GeorgeMonkey 16-2 156 24-17
11 memphispete 16-2 155 28-17**
11 Jahiegel 16-2 155 23-20
11 BlountVols 16-2 155 28-10
11 LuckyGuess 16-2 155 17-16
15 Hjohn 16-2 154 32-31
16 joeb_1 15-3 153 30-24**
16 Fowler877 15-3 153 27-21
16 jfarrar90 15-3 153 27-17
16 Jayyyy 15-3 153 24-14
16 spartans100 16-2 153 0-0
21 Joel @ GRT 14-4 152 35-13
22 tcarroll90 15-3 151 30-21**
22 crafdog 15-3 151 23-27
24 DinnerJacket 16-2 150 24-13
25 TennRebel 14-4 149 20-27
26 Will Shelton 13-5 148 30-20**
26 Krusher 14-4 148 0-0
28 TennVol95 in 3D! 14-4 147 31-24
29 ChuckieTVol 13-5 146 0-0
30 PensacolaVolFan 14-4 144 30-20
31 Hunters Horrible Picks 14-4 143 35-21**
31 ga26engr 16-2 143 27-24
31 Raven17 15-3 143 31-17
34 boro wvvol 14-4 142 28-17
35 ltvol99 15-3 141 34-24
36 rollervol 14-4 139 27-20
37 tmfountain14 13-5 137 31-21**
37 patmd 14-4 137 24-31
39 ddayvolsfan 15-3 136 31-27
40 Wilk21 13-5 133 40-21
41 Picks of Someone 12-6 132 38-28
42 C_hawkfan 14-4 129 24-21
43 HUTCH 10-8 124 21-27
44 Timbuktu126 13-5 122 14-7
45 volfan28 8-10 96 33-27
46 Jackson Irwin 0-18 95 -
46 ctull 0-18 95 -
46 shensle6 0-18 95 -
46 OriginalVol1814 0-18 95 -
46 HOTTUB 0-18 95 -
46 GasMan 0-18 95 -
46 vols95 0-18 95 -
46 ed75 0-18 95 -
46 rsbrooks25 0-18 95 -
46 Neil 0-18 95 -

Season Standings

GeorgeMonkey and BlountVols are now tied for the lead in the season standings with 235 points each. Here’s the full list:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 GeorgeMonkey 32-8 80.00 235
1 BlountVols 33-7 82.50 235
3 PAVolFan 31-9 77.50 234
3 spartans100 32-8 80.00 234
5 birdjam 31-9 77.50 232
5 Bulldog 85 28-12 70.00 232
7 jfarrar90 30-10 75.00 231
8 Joel @ GRT 29-11 72.50 228
9 Hjohn 28-12 70.00 225
10 Anaconda 28-12 70.00 223
11 LuckyGuess 28-12 70.00 222
11 ChuckieTVol 27-13 67.50 222
13 joeb_1 26-14 65.00 219
13 Jahiegel 26-14 65.00 219
15 PensacolaVolFan 29-11 72.50 218
16 crafdog 28-12 70.00 216
17 Hunters Horrible Picks 30-10 75.00 215
17 Raven17 29-11 72.50 215
17 DinnerJacket 27-13 67.50 215
20 Will Shelton 26-14 65.00 214
20 Krusher 26-14 65.00 214
22 keeps corn in a jar 24-16 60.00 213
23 Knottfair 26-14 65.00 212
24 ltvol99 28-12 70.00 211
25 rollervol 29-11 72.50 206
25 TennRebel 25-15 62.50 206
27 ddayvolsfan 29-11 72.50 203
27 patmd 29-11 72.50 203
29 tmfountain14 26-14 65.00 202
30 memphispete 20-20 50.00 200
31 C_hawkfan 25-15 62.50 198
32 Wilk21 25-15 62.50 197
33 ga26engr 27-13 67.50 196
34 boro wvvol 20-20 50.00 195
35 Jayyyy 16-24 40.00 191
36 Tennmark 22-18 55.00 189
37 cnyvol 22-18 55.00 186
38 MariettaVol1 20-20 50.00 185
39 Timbuktu126 26-14 65.00 180
40 tcarroll90 19-21 47.50 177
41 volfan28 21-19 52.50 159
42 HUTCH 10-30 25.00 157
43 Fowler877 15-25 37.50 153
44 TennVol95 in 3D! 14-26 35.00 147
45 Neil 4-36 10.00 142
46 ctull 3-37 7.50 137
46 ed75 3-37 7.50 137
46 HOTTUB 3-37 7.50 137
49 Picks of Someone 12-28 30.00 132
49 Jackson Irwin 1-39 2.50 132
51 rsbrooks25 0-40 0.00 128
51 GasMan 0-40 0.00 128
51 shensle6 0-40 0.00 128
51 OriginalVol1814 0-40 0.00 128
55 vols95 3-37 7.50 105

Watch: Tennessee-South Carolina highlights, post-game reactions

Read: Tennessee-South Carolina post-game recaps and observations

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Transcript of Pruitt’s post-game presser, via UTSports
  2. Tennessee 31 South Carolina 27: They may all be ugly, but they will all be beautiful, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  3. ‘Relentless’ Vols making a habit of finding ways to win, via 247Sports
  4. Pruitt has nothing ‘nice to say’ about Cade Mays situation, via 247Sports
  5. Vols own football’s longest win streak among Power 5 teams, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

  • Rexrode: The newcomers who stood out in Tennessee’s win at South Carolina, via The Athletic
  • For Tennessee, an opening win warrants a celebration, no matter the details, via The Athletic