You hear a lot about a team’s offense being on- or off-schedule. It’s a substitute metaphor for whether the team is behind or ahead of the chains. In other words, it’s a shorthand description of the odds the offense is going to be able to keep possession of the ball given the particular down-and-distance facing the offense at the time.

It’s easier for an offense to be successful when it is on-schedule. Conversely, one of the main symptoms of a struggling offense is being off-schedule too often.

With that in mind, I wanted to see just how often the Vols’ offense is off-schedule and how often it is on-schedule. Here’s what I found, using the following criteria:

• On-schedule: First-and-10 or less, second-and-5 or less, third-and-3 or less;
• Off-schedule: First-and-11 or more, second-and-6 or more, third-and-4 or more, fourth downs

The Vols’ offense has lined up 395 times so far this season. Of those plays, slightly more than half of them have been off-schedule or behind-the-chain plays where the offense is facing more than an optimal yards-to-gain to earn a first down.

At this point, I do not have data from any other teams with which to compare, so it’s unclear whether or just how bad this might be. I suspect it’s pretty bad.

And here’s why that 50/50 total plays on/off schedule chart is probably bad. Even bad teams get a ton of free first-and-10 on-schedule plays because every series starts with one.

This chart suggests that things are going off the rails for the Vols right out of the gate on first down. Only 24% of the Vols’ second downs were on-schedule, meaning 5 yards or less to go. Over 75% were 6 yards or more to go. The current average is second-and-8.

As you might expect, it doesn’t get much better on third down. Over five games, Tennessee’s offense has had only 20 on-schedule third down plays. On average, when the Vols get to third down, they’re facing third-and-7.

I’m currently recording any fourth down as being off-schedule, although I suppose there is an argument for fourth-and-1 being on-schedule. The Vols have had 10 of those. The average yards-to-gain on fourth down, though, is 8.

Conclusion

Again, I can’t say just how bad this is without comparing it to other teams, but it does seem clear that the Vols’ offense is having real problems right out of the gate on first down, averaging only 2 yards.

Tennessee opened as a 1-point favoriate over Arkansas this week, and as of Friday morning, the line is currently Tennessee -2. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

Scoring offense and scoring defense for each team

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 22.2
Arkansas’s Scoring Offense this year: 24.6

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 33
Arkansas’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8

From the perspective of Tennessee

The Arkansas scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 30
• Missouri 33

Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 105% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Arkansas 30.2.

The Arkansas scoring offense of 24.6 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 22.6
• Kentucky 20.8

Tennessee allowed Kentucky 34 points but Missouri only 12. Combined, that’s 106% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Arkansas against Tennessee 26.1.

Estimated score: Tennessee 30.2, Arkansas 26.1

From the perspective of Arkansas

The Tennessee scoring defense of 33 is most similar to the following prior Arkansas opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 29.6
• Texas A&M 29.4

Arkansas scored 21 points against Mississippi State but 31 points against Texas A&M. Combined, that’s 88% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Arkansas against Tennessee 29.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 22.2 is most similar to the following prior Arkansas opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Auburn 28.3
• Georgia 29.2

Arkansas allowed Auburn 30 points and Georgia 37 points. Combined, that’s 116% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Arkansas 25.8.

Estimated score: Arkansas 29, Tennessee 25.8

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27.5

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee, -.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: .5

That’s basically the equivalent of a shrug from the Statsy Preview Machine. It basically agrees with Vegas. If you’re going strictly by the numbers, it’s saying the Vols won’t cover a 1-point spread, but will still win. A push on a one-point game is a recipe for thrills or heartburn, depending on your palate.

Eyeball adjustments

Initially, I flagged the machine for using Missouri and Kentucky as scoring offense comps from Tennessee’s perspective because the Vols’ defensive results against those two teams were quite inconsistent. Kentucky scored a little less than double what it usually gets (due to a lot of defensive points hidden in the score), while Missouri scored a little more than half. On the other hand, Arkansas can score defensively as well, so maybe it’s a perfect comp.

Plus, if you use season-long comps instead of the two closest comps, the number would actually be about the same anyway: 111% instead of 106%. So, Arkansas’ estimated points would be 27.3 instead of 26.1. Because of that, I’m just going to trust the machine here. What will matter most in this game is which Tennessee defense shows up: the one that played the first two games of the season or the one that played the last three. Fingers crossed for the former.

Bottom line, the machine’s prediction, wonky as it sounds, checks out, and I’m not making any eyeball adjustments for my own pick this week: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that the Vols win a close one and don’t cover the meager spread.

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols a 1-point favorite and an over/under of around 53, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Tennessee 27, Arkansas 26.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 26-24 (Tennessee -2) and gives them a 55% chance of winning. He’s using a 1.5-point spread and thus barely likes Tennessee to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine only has an opinion on this game because I put a gun to its head: It thinks Tennessee will beat Arkansas but won’t cover either a 1- or a 1.5-point spread. I agree with the machine. Neither of us are at all confident about it, as both the game itself and the question of whether the Vols cover appear too close to call.

• Vegas: Tennessee 27, Arkansas 26 (Vols -1)
• SP+: Tennessee 26-24 (Vols cover, but barely)
• GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27.5 (Vols don’t cover)
• Me: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27 (push)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
• Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.

What do y’all think?

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 24-19 (55.81%) overall, 7-6 (53.85%) in Category 2, and 3-4 (42.86%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 113-116 (49.34%) in Category 1, 45-49 (47.87%) in Category 2, and 23-24 (48.94%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 21-20 (51.22%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 20-21-2 (48.78%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 116-110-4 (51.33%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 25-18 (58.14%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 10 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 10 Picks

Below are the machine’s picks this week. NOTE: This is the first week for the Pac-12 and the MAC, and the SPM is not currently doing well in the first couple of weeks of a team’s season. When the Big 10 first started up, the SPM whiffed on all but one game. Because of that, I’d avoid putting any confidence whatsoever in any of the Pac-12 or MAC games.

There are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week, although many of them are either Pac-10 or MAC games that are likely to be wrong. I wouldn’t beat my chest about anything this week, to be honest.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols kick off against Arkansas this Saturday at 7:30 on the SEC Network, but don’t miss the Cocktail Party at 3:30 on CBS between SEC East foes Florida and Georgia. And if you can figure out how to be in two places at the same time, there’s also a huge game between No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 Notre Dame on NBC at the same time as the Vols play the Hogs.

Here’s the college football TV schedule for the week. First up is a list curated just for Vols fans. The full searchable schedule for the entire week is at the bottom of the post.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

There are six (!) games scheduled for Wednesday night this week. ESPN thinks Ohio-Central Michigan is the best of the bunch. Okay.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Sideways eyes.

Friday, November 6, 2020

Well, hey. A Friday night with not one, but two potentially good games. I’m in.

Gameday, November 7, 2020

The Vols’ game against Arkansas is on the SEC Network at 7:30 this Saturday opposite the national headliner of No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame on NBC. Also on in the same time slot is Tennessee’s next opponent, Texas A&M, at 7:00 on ESPN. DVR that one for scouting after the Vols-Hogs game.

Warm up for the Vols game with a noon game featuring Top 25 teams Michigan and Indiana on FS1 and then the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party During a Pandemic when No. 5 Georgia and No. 10 Florida square off. That one kicks at 3:30 on CBS. You can also get a look at Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network. If you care.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Conclusions: SAFETY FIRST! Run the ball, defend the pass, be careful on third down because a punt is a good play.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Currently, Tennessee’s offense does not appear to have any advantage over Arkansas’ defense. However, there do appear to be a couple of areas that look even. The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t as good as we’d hoped yet this season, but the Razorbacks aren’t especially good defending the run, either. The two units also appear to be about even on first down.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee’s offense is still not good at all at converting third downs, and Arkansas’ defense is quite good at getting off the field on third downs. The Hogs are also really good against the pass in all facets, including generating turnovers in the passing game.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Based on these numbers, Tennessee’s best bet is to run the ball. It’s the most even matchup, and it avoids what appears to be a significant advantage for the Hogs in the passing game. The Vols are going to have to be effective enough on first and second down that running is an option on third.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Tennessee appears to have the advantage when the Vols are on defense, particularly against the run. They could also have some success in pressuring the quarterback and generating sacks.

Where’s the danger?

The Arkansas offense appears to have an advantage in the passing game, as the Vols are generally struggling to defend the pass and the Hogs are better at that than they are running the ball.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Shut down the run, but also devote extra resources and preparation time to defending the pass and pressuring the quarterback on pass plays.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have several advantages on special teams, particularly in all facets of the punt game. So, safety on third down and living to punt on fourth down is a good play.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Arkansas is a turnover machine, and they are disciplined from a penalties perspective as well. Ball security first!