Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Aggies give the ball away like they’re downsizing and moving to another country for the rest of their lives. Also, they’re advertising an all-you-can-eat buffet on the offensive boards on their dime, so expect Tennessee to benefit from a ton of extra opportunities through turnovers and second-chance possessions.

The bad news: Texas A&M draws fouls like roadkill draws flies. The Vols’ ability to defend without fouling has recently fallen from the lofty perch of the elite, and although they’re still very good in this regard, they’ll be challenged today. Expect more trips to the foul line than normal for the villains and hope it doesn’t matter.

Vegas has the Vols as 10.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 129.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 70, Texas A&M 59.

KenPom likes the Vols by 9 and puts the score at Tennessee 67, Texas A&M 58, which translates into a 78% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine also likes the Vols by 9 points (Tennessee 66, Texas A&M 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Decided advantage for the Vols here. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the Aggies are No. 97.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Ags are about like the Vols here, good, but not as good as Colorado or Arkansas at hitting from the field.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ooh. Smells bad, and that’s good. Actually, now that I’m looking at it again, that’s a disparity that involuntarily triggers a chuckle.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols are slightly better on the o-boards, but TAMU isn’t bad there, either.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Goodness. These guys get to the free-throw line better than all but five teams in the country.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols have a chance to shoot a better percentage from the field today than they usually do, but their shooting defense has slipped quite a bit the last couple of games. They could ratchet that back up again today against the Aggies.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Both teams are extremely good at forcing turnovers. Fortunately, Tennessee is also good at not turning the ball over, while A&M seems to have reverse magnetism in this regard.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The Vols should be able to rack up offensive rebounds at will today. Things should be about normal on the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee sending opponents to the foul line has also taken a bit of a dive lately, but they’re still good at defending without fouling. They will, however, be going up against a team that absolutely excels at drawing fouls. That’s something to watch today and could well be a key to the game.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Arkansas Razorbacks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee’s defense has another tough test this evening as the Hogs are one of the best-shooting teams the Vols have played this season. In fact, the whole game figures to be a defensive contest, as both teams know how to keep opposing offenses from posting good shooting percentages. Neither team turns the ball over very much, both get after the offensive boards, and the difference in getting to the foul line is marginal.

Here’s our humble suggestion on what to watch for:

1. Learn to love defense, as both the Vols and the Hogs look like they’re built to make opposing offenses look ugly.
2. With most everything else being something close to equal, the winner is likely going to have to play a clean game and make the most of any advantage. Fortunately for the Vols, their numbers suggest that a slightly better defense should be the difference in the game.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Arkansas 67, which translates into a 73% chance of winning. Vegas likes the Vols by 8.5 and puts the over/under at 141.5, so projects the score to be around 76-67, Vols.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by only six points (Tennessee 70, Arkansas 64).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That’s making things look pretty darn even. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Arkansas is receiving votes. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 8, and the Hogs are No. 40.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Arkansas is the best-shooting team the Vols have played so far this season, with the exception of Colorado.

Turnover %

Conclusion: And they are the best at protecting their possession of the ball.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: And also the best at offensive rebounding, although the Vols are even better on the o-boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Hogs don’t get to the free throw line nearly as often as do the Missouri Tigers, but they’re head-of-the-pack at this among teams the Vols have played this season.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so if you were frustrated by the way the Vols shot against Missouri, get ready for a possible repeat of that, as the Hogs are good at keeping opponents from sinking shots.

The Vols will return the favor on the other end of the floor. If you’re watching with someone who thinks both teams are just bad, rev up the whole “it probably has something to do with the defense, don’tcha think” conversation.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Neither team is giving up many turnovers, although Tennessee’s defense is more likely to stress Arkansas in this regard than vice versa.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Again, both teams are pulling down offensive boards at a good clip. Both respective defenses are going to make that more difficult this game, with Tennessee appearing to have a slight edge.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Vols aren’t terrible at getting to the foul line, but they are better at it than the Hogs. And one more time — both defenses are going to have a not insignificant impact on that. Tennessee’s defense is better at defending without fouling, though.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Missouri Tigers tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

The commencement of the SEC basketball season brings with it the toughest test so far for the Vols, as they travel to CoMo to take on CuoMa’s Missouri Tigers. The Tigers’ numbers aren’t quite as impressive as are the Vols’, but they are so much closer than the rest of the competition to date that everything could change, especially if the Vols throw good money after bad by getting frustrated into taking more bad shots to make up for misses and if they lose the battle for free-throw-attempts.

Here’s our humble suggestion on what to watch for:

1. Expect both offenses to look ugly and for some level-headed commentator to eventually pipe up that one person’s ugly offense is another’s beautiful defense. Shots will probably do a lot of clanking for both teams, but as long as you end up with the most points on the scoreboard, you’re good.
2. Expect trips to the free-throw line to be at a premium. Both teams play solid defense, and whichever one does the best job at defending without giving up free trips to the free line may well win this one on that basis alone.

KenPom likes the Vols by 2 and puts the score at Tennessee 67, Missouri 65, which translates into a 57% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, still discovering its legs, likes the Vols by 12 points (Tennessee 69, Missouri 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Hmm. Kind of even-ish-looking. We’ll see what the rest of the data shows, but it’s looking like Missouri hates three-point shots like the Grinch hates the Whos, no matter who’s taking them.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: A step up from most of the competition so far this season. More like us when shooting the ball than anyone else save Colorado.

Turnover %

Conclusion: The Tigers are protecting possession most like Colorado and St. Joe’s. Not nearly as well as the Vols are, though.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri is the best offensive-rebounding team the Vols have played so far this short season, but Tennessee is still a ways out in front on this, uh, front.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh, look. It’s Yeti. Sasquatch. The Loch Ness Monster. We haven’t yet seen much of any opponent doing anything of any importance better than the Vols so far this season, but here it is: The Tigers are getting to the free throw line much more often than the Vols.

But let’s see what that stifling Tennessee defense might do to those offensive numbers.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

As is customary for a Cuonzo Martin-coached team, the Tigers are going to frustrate a team blindly hoping for shots to go down easily. Tennessee is shooting well enough, but Missouri’s going to make it more difficult than usual.

The difference is more pronounced on the other end, though, where the Vols’ defense figures to frustrate Missouri’s offense even more.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Missouri might hate three-pointers, but they much more like the carve-the-roast-beast version of the Grinch when it comes to stealing stuff. They will not steal the ball, especially from a team who locks it up in a bank vault on a Cayman Island in Switzerland. Yeah, my fingers just did that. Don’t care, because it makes the point. 🙂

On the other side of the court, Tennessee has zero qualms about relieving you of your possessions, although Missouri does seem to be a bit more protective than most teams we’ve played so far this season.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Man, do I love those numbers for the Vols. They’re getting after it on the offensive boards (and Missouri shouldn’t present too much of a hindrance to that this game), and they’re getting after it on the defensive glass just as well. Mo boards, mo possessions, mo points, mo wins.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

And here’s where it appears we have a push, as Tennessee’s not doing especially well at getting to the line, and Missouri’s not likely to help much. On the other side of the court, the Tigers are used to free shots, but they’re not used to playing Tennessee, which plays defense without fouling.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the USC Upstate Spartans tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Among the Vols’ prior opponents so far this season, the USC Upstate Spartans compare most closely to Cincinnati and St. Joseph’s, and the result tonight should be similar.

Here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to continue to work on things that are not yet up to the high standards of Rick Barnes, like tip-to-zeroes focus, ball movement to get good shots, and getting to the free throw line.
2. The smothering defense should continue against USC Upstate, making it extremely difficult for the Spartans to get anything going, especially when they also figure to be prone to turning the ball over and unable to get rebounds.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 33.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 27 and puts the score at Tennessee 84, Saint Joseph’s 57, which translates into a 99% chance of winning.

Our toddler Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by a whopping 43 points (Tennessee 92, USC Upstate 49). Woo.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Okay. Again, looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: They shoot like Cincinnati and St. Joe’s.

Turnover %

Conclusion: They like to give the ball up. Fun!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ooh. This is shaping up quite nicely.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: About even here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really beginning to get their groove on offense but still have some ground to make up from a couple of clunkers early in the season. On the other end of the court, USC Upstate is in for a shock.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Again, the Vols are both really protecting the ball well and really doing a good job of stealing it from the other team. The Spartans aren’t especially adept at thievery, and they are exceedingly generous on the other end. More opportunities to improve shooting for the Vols!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Woo, more green-on-red. The Vols are rebounding really well on both ends of the court, and the Spartans, well, the Spartans are not. Still more opportunities for the Vols to improve their shooting!

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Along with continuing to improve their shooting percentages, the Vols have also been improving their ability to get to the free throw line. But as with shooting, they still have some ground to cover on the free-throw front. The Spartans aren’t just going to give this to them.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against the St. Joseph’s Hawks tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

You have to hand it to Saint Joseph’s: Three of their first five games (including tonight against the Vols) will be against Top 10 teams. Keep that in mind when you cast a dismissive glance at their stats to date. On the other hand, the Vols aren’t likely to make things any easier for the Hawks tonight, and their stats will likely hold until their schedule lets up. Which shouldn’t be tonight.

Tennessee should have a chance to further improve its shooting percentages this evening and should be able to continue its dominance on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and tough shots without fouling and rebounding many of the misses. Bottom line: Tennessee appears to have the advantage in every facet of the game tonight.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to have sort of a dealer’s choice, either choosing their flavor of success or just playing until the smoothest of paths becomes evident.
2. If they choose to work on things they’re not yet doing especially well, watch for the offense to continue to solve the “good shots” puzzle, increasing their percentages both from the field and from the three-point line, and also improving their ability to draw fouls and earn three throw attempts.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 20.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 19 and puts the score at Tennessee 83, Saint Joseph’s 64, which translates into a 96% chance of winning.

According to our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, Tennessee is scoring 116% of what its opponents usually give up and allowing only 68% of what those opponents usually get. Those numbers for Saint Joseph’s are 115% and 117%. It thinks the Vols cover pretty easily tonight. It’s also been wrong a lot, as it’s still finding its wings.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Hmm. That’s looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Not terrible shooters at this point. Most like Cincinnati.

Turnover %

Conclusion: I know I’m supposed to be looking at St. Joe’s, but I’m getting distracted by that No. 15 ranking for Tennessee. In turnover percentage! Woo. Huge improvement from last season so far.

Oh, and I almost forgot: The Hawks aren’t bad in this category.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: More green for the Vols. Loving that. Also digging that Saint Joseph’s is really pretty bad at offensive rebounding.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well. The green party is over, apparently. Good news, though. The Hawks aren’t getting to the free throw line any more often than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So the Vols have been shooting better recently but still have a ways to go. It appears that they’ll have an opportunity to improve that again tonight, although Will wisely points out that the Hawks have played a pretty wicked schedule so far this young season.

On the other side of the court, Tennessee’s defense continues to throttle the enthusiasm out of opponents and will likely continue to do so tonight against the Hawks.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Woo. We’re not giving the ball up, and we’re taking it away from opponents. Big advantages for the good guys in turnovers tonight.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh! Not only are the Vols super good at offensive rebounding and really good on the defensive boards as well, but Saint Joseph’s is apparently all too willing to just concede rebounds on both sides of the court. Nice.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Well, who needs free throws anyway? The Hawks aren’t likely to even get a whiff of the free throw stripe tonight due to them not knowing the way and Tennessee crushing the compass. The Vols aren’t much better about getting there, although it looks like St. Joseph’s might make things easier in that regard this evening.

Go Vols.