The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Post-Florida

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Fields marked with an * are required

Instructions

Enter your confidence level for each game below. A certain win is 100, and a certain loss is 0. Then hit the submit button to get your expected win total for the season.

Georgia State

BYU

Chattanooga

Florida

Georgia

Mississippi State

@ Alabama

South Carolina

UAB

@ Kentucky

@ Missouri

Vanderbilt *

Unknown bowl game *

My assessment

Even a day later, I’m still feeling like the Vols really weren’t even competitive against the Gators and that the evidence is insufficient at this time to support a belief that it’s going to get better any time soon. Ugh.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State and Missouri are looking better and better, while the other remaining opponents all look good enough to lose to. Bleck.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 2.9, which actually feels a bit high. I guess all of those 20 and 30 percents add up to a win I’m not exactly expecting. Hurl.

Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9

Details: I have Alabama and Georgia both at 5%, Mississippi State and Missouri at 20%, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt at 30%, and UAB as a tossup. Ugh.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30	vs Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in the Sun Belt East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23	Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Southern

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-2 (0-0)


Thu, Aug 29	Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30	@ San Diego State

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-3 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14	Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17	Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16	Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to VMI, 31-24

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 24	Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5	Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs Florida State

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2	Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Tech

Tough game against Notre Dame, but these guys pulled it out and looked good doing it against the Fighting Irish. They’re going to be a real problem for the Vols.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28	vs Ole Miss

The Bulldogs looked good against Kentucky and made that loss to Kansas State look like a fluke. Kylin Hill is currently the SEC’s leading rusher. Ugh, this game’s looking tougher, even before you account for the Vols’ problems.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7	Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14	Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30	@ No. 11 Auburn

Machines.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16	Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs 4 Clemson

Looked good against Alabama, but not so good against Missouri this week.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 3-0 (0-0), 3rd in C-USA West


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12	Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16	Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30	@ North Texas

Nobody schedule, but 3-0.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-2 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30	vs Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7	Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29	@ Arkansas

Season-opening loss to Wyoming looking more and more like an anomaly.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30	@ Tennessee

Not looking good, but playing two Top 5 teams to begin the season will do that.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

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Harley

5 years ago

Down from 4 wins last week to 3 wins this week… sssssigh. Go Vols!

Admin

Will Shelton

I’m at 3.51. This “feels” right, whatever that’s worth: beat UAB and then get one, maybe two of the non-UGA/Bama games.

Pete

2.37. I’ll take the Under. We destroyed our best chance in decades for a winless season with the slip up at UTC.

daetilus

3.17….seems about right.

July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71

So much for progress.

This is really kind of unbelievable in Year 2.