The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After South Carolina

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

My assessment

About those Vols: We’ve been getting glimpses of improvement for almost a month, but this week the thing grew legs and starting running amuck through the china shop. Everything is getting better, including both the offensive and defensive lines and overall team depth, the things that have plagued us most for far too many years. One thing we’ve learned through the entire ordeal is that progress isn’t usually linear, so there may still be bad days ahead, but the team is just so much more fun to watch now. You have to feel really good not just about the direction this thing is headed, but that it’s also now beginning to pick up speed and momentum.

Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: There wasn’t a lot of good data about Tennessee’s past opponents this week as many of them were off, one of them gave the game away on turnovers, and another one of them played Arkansas.

As for Tennessee’s future opponents, UAB and Vandy were both off, and Kentucky beat Missouri, making the Wildcats look better and the Tigers look worse.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.6, up from 4.7 last week. We’re rounding up to bowl eligibility now, y’all!

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
After Week 7: 4.4
After Week 8: 4.7
After Week 9: 5.6

Details: I now have Kentucky and Missouri at 60% and UAB and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30	vs Vanderbilt

The Vols’ future opponents

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12	Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16	Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30	@ North Texas

Off this week.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30	vs Louisville

Looked good with a wide receiver running from the quarterback position. May be one-dimensional, but that dimension is pretty good.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7	Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29	@ Arkansas

Two weeks ago, these guys looked like they were leading the face for the SEC East. Last week, they lost to Vanderbilt, which was coming off a loss to UNLV. This week, they just couldn’t get rolling in the rain against Kentucky with Kelly Bryant one-dimensional due to what looked like a bad hamstring. Over the next couple of games against No. 10 Georgia and No. 7 Florida, they’ll either get their second wind or fall completely apart.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30	@ Tennessee

Off this week.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23	Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Southern

That “2-10 Sun Belt team” from Week 1 is actually a “6-2 Sun Belt team.”

BYU Cougars

Current record: 3-4


Thu, Aug 29	Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30	@ San Diego State

The Cougars were off this week.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-4 (3-1), 3rd in the Southern Conference


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14	Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17	Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16	Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to VMI, 31-24

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 24	Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5	Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs Florida State

Off this week in advance of next week’s big showdown with Georgia.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2	Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Tech

Off this week, and smelling Gator meat.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 6th in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28	vs Ole Miss

It’s still difficult to conclude much about Mississippi State, as this weekend’s loss to Texas A&M came at the hands of several turnovers. They get a bit of a reprieve next week with a game against Arkansas.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7	Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14	Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30	@ No. 11 Auburn

No Tua, no problem. Alabama led this one 41-0 at halftime before coasting home in the second half. It was just Arkansas, though, so you know. Both No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU are off next week, and then they’ll meet in Tuscaloosa the following week. That should be fun.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16	Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs 4 Clemson

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

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Will Shelton

5 years ago

I’m also at 5.6. Not pushing Missouri above 50% just yet, but still more confident against UAB than many of us, it seems.

Brenna Russell

5.78. A little more confident for both Missouri and Kentucky.

Harley

Whoa… mine jumped to 5.85 from 5.3. Looks like we are getting close to bowl qualification. We still need to keep improving and overcoming adversity when necessary. The stretch run ain’t going to be easy… one game at a time. Go Vols!

HixsonVol

I am sitting at 5.85 this week. Let optimism reign eternal and GBO.

Pete

We won 2 I didn’t expect (MSU/USCe), so I am up to 5.7. Keep surprising me, Vols. I love it!

Gavin Driskill

Up to 5.0 via somewhat round numbers (.67, .40, .33, .60) coming down the stretch.

3-1 still feels like a lot to ask with the QB carousel and the injuries for a team already pretty thin in some places…but it isn’t as much to ask as 4-1 was!

Caban

6.05(from 5.4 before I researched and wrote this quickie) UAB is scary-adjacent, they don’t move the ball that consistently… even against some of the awful defenses they’ve faced but they do have big play WRs who can burn you. It’s the consistency that’s hurt them and their hugely heavy (over?)reliance on running when their leading rusher is <4ypc. Defensively they are top 15 at everything, but there are MASSIVE caveats. Examples of those caveats follow… #5 Total Defense… Bama State(#106 FCS Total Offense), Akron(#128 FBS), USA(#125 FBS), WKU (#105), Rice(#127), UTSA(#116), ODU(#130). #8 Rushing Defense… Bama State(#109 FCS), Akron(#130), USA(#85/400yd… Read more »

Reply to Caban

Oh, and Will… if you guys ever need any help on here I’m a journalist who’s had to back off the full time stuff to deal with family obligations. I’d enjoy doing some stuff just to exercise my mind with no expectation of compensation, so long as I would have permission to use it in portfoilio.

July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
October 14, 2019 (post-Mississippi St.): 3.87
October 21, 2019 (post-Alabama): 4.00
October 29, 2019 (post-South Carolina): 5.35

What a wild ride to wind up almost back to where I started.

daetilus

5.65 I’m still not super worried about UAB or Vandy. Vandy is Vandy, but they have won 3 of the last 4. So confidence is not where it traditionally has been. UAB has a solid defense, but the offense isn’t special. And it’s all come against lower tier teams. I still think Mizzou is our hardest game left being that it’s in Columbia. They have played much better at home, but Bryant is hurting at the moment, and they seem to be in a bit of disarray. So I’m felling more confident about it than I have all season. Still… Read more »