The AccuWeather app says it best:
It’s great that is indeed on the table this weekend.
If you’re looking for the comparison in the “biggest game since” category, I don’t think there’s a good one available. We forget part of this, but six years ago #1 Alabama came to town to face #9 Tennessee. Rightfully so: #1 Bama did #1 Bama things, dismantling and demolishing the Vols in what remains the highest-ranked Third Saturday in October of all time. Then Tennessee’s entire season started falling apart two weeks later.
So we choose not to remember that one for our own safety, but for this part – the part leading up to kickoff – that was the biggest game around here in a very, very long time. Until it wasn’t, and it wasn’t quickly, and then quickly we had even harder things to talk about.
I think it’s safe to say even the biggest pessimist among us doesn’t imagine this Florida team doing that Alabama team things to us on Saturday, so we’re safe from that comparison. But after that one, it’s also hard to find a good comparison in the other direction. After that Alabama game, Saturday will be the game featuring the two highest-ranked teams in Neyland Stadium since 2007:
Highest Ranked vs. Ranked Games in Neyland Stadium, 2008-2022
- 2016: #1 Alabama vs #9 Tennessee
- 2022: #11 Tennessee vs #20 Florida
- 2016: #14 Tennessee vs #19 Florida
- 2012: #18 Florida vs #23 Tennessee
- 2015: #19 Oklahoma vs #23 Tennessee
None of those others really fit either, though we’d take the 2016 Florida outcome for sure. This carries not the Year Three if-not-now-when pressure of 2012 Florida and 2015 Oklahoma; the numbers next to those names were already a better fit for the Pitt game anyway.
And we won that one, which is how we got to this one.
Which is still amazing that it even exists.
At kick-off, never mind all that sentimentality and appreciation, let’s go win by a thousand. But here, on Friday, one final word to say how grateful we are that this Saturday is here.
We said this last year leading up to the Ole Miss game, how crazy it was that an opportunity like that was even available in October of Year One in Year 13 of trying to get this right.
In September of Year Two of Year 14 of trying to get this right, we might get to stop counting.
It may have to happen without Cedric Tillman. So far he and Jalin Hyatt have 35 of Tennessee’s 74 receptions, 47.3% of the Vols’ total receptions. If that percentage held the entire season, it would be the second-highest for a Vol duo in the post-Fulmer era…right behind Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman last year. It’s what this offense likes.
So without one half of its customary one-two punch, where will the Vol passing game turn? Wide receivers have 87.8% of Tennessee’s receptions through three games, an absurd number. Jacob Warren has two catches for 41 yards. Princeton Fant has three for 31. Running backs have three catches total. Might there be some options in those departments if the Vols can’t plug-and-play a replacement for Tillman in the starting lineup at receiver?
The bigger predictor of success and failure remains pass protection. When Hendon Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as Tennessee’s starter, the Vols are 7-1. The lone loss is Ole Miss last year, when he ran for 108 yards at 4.7 per attempt. When Hooker averages less than three yards per carry as UT’s starter, the Vols are 2-4. That includes the Ball State and Pitt wins this year, and the losses to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Purdue last year.
Hooker was sacked on 10.88% of his dropbacks last year vs FBS competition, a jarring number and a costly one. This year, that number is at 4.67%, but two of those games were against Akron and Ball State as you know. Pitt’s defense was more problematic. Florida, however, has struggled: they got Will Levis three times on 24 passing attempts, but went o-fer against Utah and South Florida.
So yes, there are reasons for confidence all around us. And it shows, even in the midst of 16 of the last 17 years: in our Expected Win Total Machine, Tennessee fans give the Vols a 65.7% chance of victory. If the closest comparison to this game is the Ole Miss affair last year, just in terms of opportunity? Tennessee fans came in at 47.2% on that one last year, and the Vols were +2.5. This time, of course, the Vols are -10.5 and counting.
The season total currently stands at 8.65 wins. We’re one more away from the best regular season in 15 years becoming the expectation. We’re one more away from a lot of things.
One year ago this week, the Vols lost to Florida 38-14. Josh Heupel called the game’s aftermath a turning point for his program. For all the attention to what happened to Florida after that win and its subsequent coaching change, the biggest x-factor remains Tennessee. The Vols blew out Missouri the very next week, and we’ve been moving forward ever since. As good as we can, as fast as we can has brought us here.
Here is good. Greatness awaits.
Lose, and it’ll hurt real bad. We don’t know what it’s like to fall to these guys as a 10-point favorite.
And win, and it’ll feel really great. Like really, really great. And not even in the context of as great as we remember from way back whenever. Great, because this whole thing will keep moving forward. And the story of Tennessee-Florida, and Tennessee in general, will be less about the past, and more about the present. About today.
Because today is good. And man, tomorrow could be great.
Go Vols.
