Hat Guy's expectations for the Vols' 2023 season: UPDATED (post-Alabama)

Tennessee’s meltdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday did some additional damage to the Vols’ SEC hopes. The Vols were 8.5-point underdogs, so for most of last week the loss wasn’t unexpected. A loss didn’t become unexpected until halftime, when the Vols went to the locker room ahead 20-7. The second half made the ultimate outcome especially disappointing. The real disappointment in the win/loss column, though, actually happened several weeks ago in the Swamp when the Vols lost to a Gators team as a 7-point favorite.

But all is not yet lost. Tennessee can still make the SEC championship game, provided they take care of business and get a little help along the way. Here are the current SEC East standings:


Georgia	8-0
Missouri	5-2
Tennessee	3-4
Kentucky	3-5
Florida	3-5
South Carolina	3-5
Vanderbilt	0-7

To get to the top of that list, here’s what needs to happen:

Tennessee wins out. This would put the Vols at 6-2 in conference play. Kentucky would have at least 3 losses; Missouri at least 2. Georgia would have 1 loss, to the Vols.
Florida loses two more games. Florida still has Georgia (this weekend), LSU, and Missouri on the schedule. Right now, Hat Guy has the Gators as 15-point dogs to Georgia and 10-point dogs to LSU and Missouri. As underdogs in all three, they could certainly lose at least two.
Georgia loses another game in addition to losing to Tennessee. This is the most unlikely to happen. Forgetting Tennessee for a moment, Georgia still has to play Florida in a rivalry game this weekend, No. 16 Missouri, and No. 12 Ole Miss. Right now, Hat Guy has the Dawgs as 15-point favorites over Florida, 10-point favorites over Missouri, and 12-point favorites over Ole Miss. The Missouri and Ole Miss games are at home, but the Florida game is, as always, at a neutral site. The Vols need one of those teams to pull off the upset.

Can Tennessee win out?

If the Vols don’t win out in the SEC, nothing else will matter. Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the possibilities.

	Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6 (Bye)	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12
VA	TN -36	TN 49-13
AP			TN 30-13
FL			TN -13	FL 29-16
UTSA				TN -8	TN 45-14
SC					TN -15	TN 41-20
TAMU						TAMU -14	TN -1.5	TN 20-13
AL						AL -7	AL -3.8	TN -2.1	AL 34-20
KY						KY -8	TN -7.7	TN -10.7	TN -6.2	TN 33-27
UCONN						TN -32	TN -28	TN -26	TN -25.1	TN -21.7	TN 59-3
MO						MO -3	TN -10.5	TN -4.2	MO -2.6	MO -1.6	TN -2.4	GA 36-7
GA						GA -6	GA -8.8	GA -6.3	GA -9.3	GA -13.3	GA -8.1	GA -15.4	GA 38-10
VAN						TN -17	TN -26.9	TN -25.7	TN -22.9	TN -29.8	TN -27.9		TN -26.6

Straight up, Hat Guy was very wrong about the Florida game and wrong about the Alabama game in the second half. Other than that, though, he’s been pretty spot on. In the last four SEC games, he currently likes the Vols against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, Missouri by a field goal, and Georgia by 9. Our hope on the question of whether the Vols can win out is pinned out first doing what they should, then winning a close one against the Tigers, and finally, Neyland Stadium.

For reference, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:

Tennessee Volunteers


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Virginia	W	49-13	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Austin Peay	W	30-13	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	Florida	L	29-16	2-1 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	UTSA	W	45-14	3-1 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	South Carolina	W	41-20	4-1 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Texas A&M	W	20-13	5-1 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 21	@	11 Alabama	L	34-20	5-2 (2-2)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Kentucky	W	33-27	6-2 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	UConn	W	59-3	7-2 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 11	@	14 Missouri	L	36-7	7-3 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	1 Georgia	L	38-10	7-4 (3-4)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Vanderbilt		3:30 PM	SECN

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Ball State	W	44-14	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Eastern Kentucky	W	28-17	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	Akron	W	35-3	3-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	@	Vanderbilt	W	45-28	4-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	22 Florida	W	33-14	5-0 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	1 Georgia	L	51-13	5-1 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Missouri	L	38-21	5-2 (2-2)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	21 Tennessee	L	33-27	5-3 (2-3)
Sat, Nov 4	@	Mississippi State	W	24-3	6-3 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	8 Alabama	L	49-21	6-4 (3-4)
Sat, Nov 18	@	South Carolina	L	17-14	6-5 (3-5)
Sat, Nov 25	@	10 Louisville		12:00 PM	ABC

DNP.

UConn


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Thu, Aug 31	vs	NC State	L	24-14	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	Georgia State	L	35-14	0-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	Florida International	L	24-17	0-3 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	18 Duke	L	41-7	0-4 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	Utah State	L	34-33	0-5 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Rice	W	38-31	1-5 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 21	vs	South Florida	L	24-21	1-6 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Boston College	L	21-14	1-7 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 4	@	17 Tennessee	L	59-3	1-8 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 11	@	James Madison	L	44-6	1-9 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Sacred Heart	W	31-3	2-9 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	Massachusetts		12:00 PM	ESPN+

Missouri


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Thu, Aug 31	vs	South Dakota	W	35-10	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Middle Tennessee	W	23-19	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	15 Kansas State	W	30-27	3-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Memphis	W	34-27	4-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Vanderbilt	W	38-21	5-0 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	23 LSU	L	49-39	5-1 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 14	@	24 Kentucky	W	38-21	6-1 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 21	vs	South Carolina	W	34-12	7-1 (3-1)
Sat, Nov 4	@	2 Georgia	L	30-21	7-2 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	13 Tennessee	W	36-7	8-2 (4-2)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Florida	W	33-31	9-2 (5-2)
Fri, Nov 24	@	Arkansas		4:00 PM	CBS

Having increased their record to 7-1 (3-1) with a win over South Carolina last weekend, Missouri will play Georgia next after a bye this weekend. I’m interested to see how that game impacts the comps and Hat Guy’s prediction of the Tigers-Vols game.

Georgia


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	UT Martin	W	48-7	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Ball State	W	45-3	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	South Carolina	W	24-14	3-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	UAB	W	49-21	4-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Auburn	W	27-20	5-0 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	20 Kentucky	W	51-13	6-0 (3-0)
Sat, Oct 14	@	Vanderbilt	W	37-20	7-0 (4-0)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	Florida	W	43-20	8-0 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	12 Missouri	W	30-21	9-0 (6-0)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	9 Ole Miss	W	52-17	10-0 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 18	@	18 Tennessee	W	38-10	11-0 (8-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	Georgia Tech		7:30 PM	ABC
Sat, Dec 2	vs	8 Alabama		4:00 PM	CBS

DNP.

Vanderbilt


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Aug 26	vs	Hawai'i	W	35-28	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Alabama A&M	W	47-13	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	Wake Forest	L	36-20	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	UNLV	L	40-37	2-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Kentucky	L	45-28	2-3 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	23 Missouri	L	38-21	2-4 (0-2)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Florida	L	38-14	2-5 (0-3)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	1 Georgia	L	37-20	2-6 (0-4)
Sat, Oct 28	@	12 Ole Miss	L	33-7	2-7 (0-5)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Auburn	L	31-15	2-8 (0-6)
Sat, Nov 11	@	South Carolina	L	47-6	2-9 (0-7)
Sat, Nov 25	@	18 Tennessee		3:30 PM	SECN

DNP.

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	12 Tennessee	L	49-13	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	James Madison	L	36-35	0-2 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 15	@	Maryland	L	42-14	0-3 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 22	vs	NC State	L	24-21	0-4 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Boston College	L	27-24	0-5 (0-2)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	William & Mary	W	27-13	1-5 (0-2)
Sat, Oct 21	@	10 North Carolina	W	31-27	2-5 (1-2)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Miami	L	29-26 OT	2-6 (1-3)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Georgia Tech	L	45-17	2-7 (1-4)
Thu, Nov 9	@	11 Louisville	L	31-24	2-8 (1-5)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Duke	W	30-27	3-8 (2-5)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Virginia Tech		3:30 PM	ACCN

Austin Peay


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	@	Southern Illinois	L	49-23	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	9 Tennessee	L	30-13	0-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	East Tennessee State	W	63-3	1-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	@	Stephen F. Austin	W	22-20	2-2 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Lindenwood	W	52-10	3-2 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Gardner-Webb	W	41-14	4-2 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 21	@	Southern Utah	W	48-45 2OT	5-2 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	North Alabama	W	49-39	6-2 (3-0)
Sat, Nov 4	@	Eastern Kentucky	W	33-30 OT	7-2 (4-0)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Utah Tech	W	30-17	8-2 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Central Arkansas	W	14-12	9-2 (6-0)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Chattanooga		3:00 PM	ESPN+

Florida


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Thu, Aug 31	@	14 Utah	L	24-11	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	McNeese	W	49-7	3-2 (1-1)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	11 Tennessee	W	29-16	2-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Charlotte	W	22-7	3-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Kentucky	L	33-14	3-2 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	Vanderbilt	W	38-14	4-2 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 14	@	South Carolina	W	41-39	5-2 (3-1)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	1 Georgia	L	43-20	5-3 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Arkansas	L	39-36 OT	5-4 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 11	@	19 LSU	L	52-35	5-5 (3-4)
Sat, Nov 18	@	9 Missouri	L	33-31	5-6 (3-5)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	4 Florida State		7:00 PM	ESPN

Florida finding their rhythm is classic good news/bad news. On one side of the ledger, it makes Tennessee’s loss to them look better and increases the odds that they could give Georgia that extrar loss we’re looking for. On the other side, it decreases the odds that they will lose two more games like we need them to.

UTSA


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	@	Houston	L	17-14	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Texas State	W	20-13	1-1 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 15	vs	Army	L	37-29	1-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	@	23 Tennessee	L	45-14	1-3 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Temple	W	49-34	2-3 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	UAB	W	41-20	3-3 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 21	@	Florida Atlantic	W	36-10	4-3 (3-0)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	East Carolina	W	41-27	5-3 (4-0)
Sat, Nov 4	@	North Texas	W	37-29	6-3 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Rice	W	34-14	7-3 (6-0)
Fri, Nov 17	vs	South Florida	W	49-21	8-3 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	24 Tulane		3:30 PM	ABC

South Carolina


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	21 North Carolina	L	31-17	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Furman	W	47-21	1-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	1 Georgia	L	24-14	1-2 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Mississippi State	W	37-30	2-2 (1-1)
Sat, Sep 30	@	21 Tennessee	L	41-20	2-3 (1-2)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Florida	L	41-39	2-4 (1-3)
Sat, Oct 21	@	20 Missouri	L	34-12	2-5 (1-4)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Texas A&M	L	30-17	2-6 (1-5)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Jacksonville State	W	38-28	3-6 (1-5)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Vanderbilt	W	47-6	4-6 (2-5)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Kentucky	W	17-14	5-6 (3-5)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Clemson		7:30 PM	SECN

Texas A&M


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	New Mexico	W	52-10	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	Miami	L	48-33	1-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	UL Monroe	W	47-3	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Auburn	W	27-10	3-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	Arkansas	W	34-22	4-1 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	11 Alabama	L	26-20	4-2 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 14	@	19 Tennessee	L	20-13	4-3 (2-2)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	South Carolina	W	30-17	5-3 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 4	@	10 Ole Miss	L	38-35	5-4 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Mississippi State	W	51-10	6-4 (4-3)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Abilene Christian	W	38-10	7-4 (4-3)
Sat, Nov 25	@	15 LSU		12:00 PM	ESPN

DNP.

Alabama


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Middle Tennessee	W	56-7	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	11 Texas	L	34-24	1-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	South Florida	W	17-3	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	15 Ole Miss	W	24-10	3-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Mississippi State	W	40-17	4-1 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Texas A&M	W	26-20	5-1 (3-0)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Arkansas	W	24-21	6-1 (4-0)
Sat, Oct 21	vs	17 Tennessee	W	34-20	7-1 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	14 LSU	W	42-28	8-1 (6-0)
Sat, Nov 11	@	Kentucky	W	49-21	9-1 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Chattanooga	W	66-10	10-1 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	Auburn		3:30 PM	CBS
Sat, Dec 2	vs	1 Georgia		4:00 PM	CBS

5 9 votes

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Mr B

1 year ago

Enjoy the predictions and opponent schedule summary. I fear we will be in need of several game winning drives, can we do it? Go Vols!

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Joel Hollingsworth

Reply to Mr B

Appreciate it, Mr B.

Harley

It is going to be interesting down the stretch. No room for letdowns… must play to potential and consistently. Hope they are focused on one game at a time and injuries don’t impact. Thanks Joel for the analysis… Go Vols!

Reply to Harley

Thanks, Harley. Agreed on all of that. There is very little margin for error anymore, and we need a little help and a little luck.