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Tennessee-Vanderbilt, according to the GRT Statsy Preview Machine

Tennessee opened as a 15-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week, and as I write this, the line is 14.5. The GRT Statsy Preview Machine isn’t particularly sure of itself this week, but it thinks that line is just a bit high. Here’s why.

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 20
Vanderbilt’s Scoring Offense this year: 14.5
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 31.3
Vanderbilt’s Scoring Defense this year: 36.8

From the perspective of Tennessee

The Vanderbilt scoring defense of 36.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

Tennessee scored 31 points against South Carolina but only 13 points against Arkansas.

Together, that’s 64% of what those teams usually give up, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Vanderbilt 23.5.

The Vanderbilt scoring offense of 14.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

So yeah, this is the worst offense Tennessee has played this season by a long shot. However, Kentucky got 34 points against Tennessee, and South Carolina got 27, 135% of what those teams usually get. That puts the estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee at 19.6.

Estimated score: Tennessee 23.5, Vanderbilt 19.6

From the perspective of Vanderbilt

The Tennessee scoring defense of 31.3 is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponents:

Vanderbilt scored only 7 points against LSU and 17 points against Mississippi State. That’s a measly 39% of what those teams usually give up, putting the estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee at 12.2.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 20 is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponents:

Kentucky got 38 points against Vandy, and Mississippi State got 24. That’s 155% of what those teams usually get, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 31.

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 12.2, Tennessee 31

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.3, Vanderbilt 15.9

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -11.4

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 3.6

That makes this a Category 1 game, meaning the Machine is not particularly self-confident.

Eyeball adjustments

I feel pretty good about most of those comps with the exception of using just South Carolina and Arkansas for scoring defense due to the significantly different performances against those teams. Due to that, I re-ran the Machine using three comps and got this: Tennessee -17.8, which feels more right. However, re-running it again with all games as comps, the result is back to Tennessee -11.5, basically the same as running it with only two comps. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

So . . . I’m going with the all comps version (and leaning toward a higher spread in favor of the Vols): Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 15. I do think it could easily be more than that, but as good as optimism is at holding my hand through the valleys, it’s terrible at picking games. 🙂

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols 15-point favorites and an over/under of 51.5, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 18.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 16.8 (Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 17) and gives the Vols an 83% chance of winning.

Bottom line

I am in reluctant agreement with the Statsy Preview Machine that the Vols will not cover the 15-point opening spread this week. We are both at odds with SP+.

Season results on Tennessee games

Season-long results for all games can be found here.

What do y’all think?

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