Here’s what we think after the release of the final College Football Playoff poll before the real thing on Sunday:
Let’s start with the simple: if Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson win, they’re in. For Tennessee’s purposes, it may not matter if the committee chooses Utah or Oklahoma if they both win. But because Baylor is ranked six spots ahead of Oregon, it’s better for the Vols if Oklahoma earns the #4 spot.
That scenario would give you the top three and the Sooners in the playoff. The Sugar Bowl would take Georgia (assuming the Dawgs don’t drop below a Florida team they beat) and Baylor.
The Rose Bowl would take Utah and either Wisconsin or Penn State. Assuming a team that does not play this week will not jump another team that does not play this week, Florida has the advantage for the Orange Bowl by being ranked ahead of Penn State, and would probably play Virginia (if there are zero non-Clemson, non-Notre Dame ACC teams ranked in the final playoff poll, the Orange Bowl gets to pick itself, but Virginia is the most deserving no matter what happens against the Tigers).
From there, the Cotton Bowl will take the next-highest-ranked team. And this is where everything will get decided as far as Tennessee and the Outback Bowl: is that next-highest-ranked team Wisconsin or Auburn? Or, if the committee takes Utah over Oklahoma, is it Wisconsin, Auburn, or Baylor?
If it’s the Tigers, the Tua-less Tide go to Orlando, and Tennessee’s path to the Outback Bowl is clear. If Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Auburn in the final poll (or Baylor if the committee puts Utah in the playoff), Alabama and Auburn should split the Citrus and Outback, sending the Vols back to the Jacksonville conversation.
Also, if it’s Wisconsin, the Big Ten bowl opponents cycle up, meaning you’re not going to catch anything better than Indiana or an ACC trade-off in the Gator Bowl. If you want to see the Vols level up, it looks like that can only happen in Tampa now.
So, in order of what would be most helpful for Tennessee:
- Ohio State blows out #8 Wisconsin enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll
- The committee takes Oklahoma for its final playoff spot
- Or, the committee takes Utah, and Oklahoma blows out #7 Baylor enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll (an odd scenario probably requiring Utah to simultaneously blow out Oregon)
You get that, you should get Tampa. The Athletic reported earlier today that the Citrus Bowl was locked in on Michigan, meaning Minnesota is still the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl.
