It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of what happened this past weekend. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page. Here’s how everything shakes out for me.

My assessment

As we said on the GRT Podcast this week, the Vols’ 31-27 win over the Gamecocks was a Big, Beautiful Ugly. There are some things that the team definitely needs to get corrected — third down conversions, defending the slant route, etc. — but there were glimpses of something special, and the team did avoid blowing up in an upset minefield.

My expected win total for this season is now 5.8.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After South Carolina: 5.8

Details: I have Vanderbilt at 90%, Arkansas at 80%, Missouri and Kentucky at 70%, A&M at 50%, Georgia and Auburn at 40%

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

There is no shame in losing to an already-humming Alabama team. I feel pretty much the same about Missouri as I did last week, so I’m keeping them at 70%.

Georgia

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

So, 37-10 looks better on Monday than it did during the game on Saturday. Georgia’s offense is having problems, and, in my opinion, it has more to do with the offensive line than anything else. I also think that is hard to fix in-season. Still, I am moving them only slightly toward the green, from 35% to 40%.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

It’s hard to say what to do with this information. You feel better about Kentucky, but worse about Auburn. Maybe. For now, I’m changing Kentucky from 60% to 70%.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

I had Alabama at 25%, but I’m moving them down to only 20%. The way they looked like they hadn’t missed a beat, that may still be too high.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-5th in the SEC West

These guys looked better earlier than I thought they would, so I’m moving them from 90% to 80%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

We have the same problem with Texas A&M/Vanderbilt as we do with Kentucky-Auburn. For now, I’m docking A&M more than giving Vandy credit. I’m moving the Aggies from 40% to 50%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

See Kentucky above. I’m keeping the Tigers where they were, at 40%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

See A&M above. I’m keeping the Commodores where they were, at 90% for now.

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

Oof. These guys look maybe as tough as Alabama. Moving them from 30% to 20%.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now? You can post your current thoughts and details here, but don’t forget to submit your ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.