Our community expected win total creeps back over six this week. Using our GRT Expected Win Total Machine, we’ve got Tennessee’s projected regular season win total at 6.06 this week. That’s up from 5.94 last week, which followed 6.74 in preseason and 6.60 after Bowling Green.
Even if the Vols fall on Saturday, we may see next week’s total stay north of 5.5 wins. Tennessee’s path to bowl eligibility won’t be threatened tomorrow night; only the fast-forward button is at stake.
This week our community gives the Vols a 19.9% chance against the Gators, down from 22.7% last weekend before they almost got the Tide. That’s down a hair from the 23% chance SP+ gives the Vols, which is, incidentally, Tennessee’s winning percentage since this rivalry’s been played annually the last 31 years.
SP+ provided one of the best data points coming out of the Tennessee Tech game: the Vols now boast a Top 10 special teams unit, and a Top 25 defense (19.6 defensive SP+ rating, good for 21st nationally). Tennessee’s defense made a lengthy climb in this department two years ago, going from the Georgia State debacle to a 7-1 finish. Take out the loss to Alabama in that latter stretch, and no team scored more than 22 points in those seven Tennessee wins. The 2019 defense finished the year 19th in SP+, the program’s highest rating since the 2015 group finished 13th.
That group was led by seniors at every level, from Darrell Taylor to Daniel Bituli to Nigel Warrior. This Tennessee defense has been led largely by a cast of characters we don’t really know well. Through three games Theo Jackson leads the team with a ridiculous 8.33 tackles per game; if he kept that pace all year it would be the best season at Tennessee since A.J. Johnson in 2013. Jackson joins lots of other names in the secondary we’ve heard before, but never with such enthusiasm. There are intriguing possibilities, old and new, on the defensive line.
And even in the middle of the field – where the Vols struggled more than anywhere else last year in a season defined by struggle – there are signs of hope.
The Vols allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes last season, 125th of 127 teams who played in 2020. It hasn’t been a total turnaround so far: the Vols are 74th in that stat after holding Tennessee Tech to 47.2%. But in the one live fire test we’ve seen, there were a couple of key differences.
Kenny Pickett went 24-of-36 (66.7%) against the Vols, joining four quarterbacks from last season who completed at least two-thirds of their passes against UT on at least 20 attempts. But you’ll note the improvement:
| QB | Year | CMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | YPA |
| Kenny Pickett | 2021 | 24 | 36 | 66.7% | 285 | 7.9 |
| Mac Jones | 2020 | 25 | 31 | 80.6% | 387 | 12.5 |
| Felipe Franks | 2020 | 18 | 24 | 75.0% | 215 | 9 |
| Kyle Trask | 2020 | 35 | 49 | 71.4% | 433 | 8.8 |
| Kellen Mond | 2020 | 26 | 32 | 81.3% | 281 | 8.8 |
It may not have been great against Pickett, but it was a step in the right direction by comparison, in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The Vols were very bad at this last year. I don’t know how many games just being…maybe below average at it now will win.
But if you’re looking for real progress: last year the Vols were 114th nationally in third down conversions allowed, giving up 47.62% on the year. So far this year, Tennessee is 12th nationally, giving up 27.45%.
Again, Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech, sure. But if you want the better comparison: Pitt went 8-of-20 (40%) on third down. That’s exactly the number the Vol defense hit against South Carolina and Missouri in the first two weeks of last season, both going 6-of-15. After that:
- Georgia: 8-of-16, 50%
- Kentucky: 6-of-12, 50%
- Alabama: 7-of-12, 58.3%
- Arkansas: 9-of-17, 52.9%
- Auburn: 9-of-15, 60%
- Florida: 6-of-13, 46.2%
- Vanderbilt: 3-of-18, 16.7%
- Texas A&M: 10-of-14, 71.4%
Yeah, that’s gross.
So yeah, things are better. “They’ll need to be against Florida,” sounds like the next sentence, and probably so. But the Gators went just 4-of-12 in this department against Alabama. Tennessee’s defense was masterful in getting out of bad situations against Pittsburgh, giving the offense every opportunity to win.
Can they do the same tomorrow night?
The mostly likely outcome here is we take what we learn from Saturday night, and see if it can translate into victory in a very important stretch of at Missouri and vs South Carolina.
But if you’re looking for magic – and not the kind that appears out of thin air, like the Vols suddenly connecting on a high percentage of deep balls – it may in fact come from the defense, and their significant improvement in getting off the field when it matters most.
Go Vols.
