The Vols remained at #5 in the College Football Playoff poll this week after two overtimes and many of our bedtimes. Shout out to Michigan State, giving the Vols an early transitive scrimmage win over Kentucky in basketball.

The top four speak for themselves, all undefeated at 10-0. LSU trails the Vols at six, and will get their chance against number one Georgia in a few weeks. USC is seven, with Clemson (#9) and North Carolina (#13) also still alive as potential one-loss conference champions.

While the Vols don’t control their own destiny, there are certainly clear-cut scenarios left out there. The happiest of those would include four of these five outcomes:

  • The Ohio State/Michigan game is a blowout
  • TCU loses at Baylor, then loses again in the Big 12 Championship Game
  • Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game
  • USC loses one of its remaining games (at UCLA, Notre Dame, Pac 12 Championship)
  • Clemson (Miami, South Carolina) or North Carolina (Georgia Tech, NC State) loses one of its remaining regular season games, then beats the other in the ACC Championship Game

If all of those things happened, there would be no one-loss conference champions. Georgia is number one, the Ohio State/Michigan winner is number two, and the Vols have the no-doubt next best resume. Even if only four of those things happened, Tennessee would still be in excellent position to earn one of the top four spots.

The messiness comes with more and more of those outcomes falling through. TCU obviously controls its own fate and would get no arguments here. But you would get plenty of argument surrounding a group that looked like this:

  • 11-1 Ohio State/Michigan loser in a close game
  • 11-2 LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
  • 12-1 USC as Pac 12 Champion
  • 12-1 Clemson or UNC as ACC Champion

If TCU is undefeated, you’ve got those four plus 11-1 Tennessee for the final spot. That’s a mess. It’s one the Vols still might come out on top of, currently sitting at number five and thus primed to move to number four after Ohio State/Michigan. But it would be a lengthy conversation.

The most likely outcome is, of course, somewhere between our best and worst case scenarios. But a couple of those would still present brand new scenarios for the committee to consider.

Here’s a look at the eight-year history of the College Football Playoff, from Wikipedia:

A couple things stand out here:

  • Two teams made the playoffs without appearing in their conference championship game: 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama. Both of those teams got in without a one-loss conference champion being left out. This made things much cleaner. But this also means if we’re comparing 11-1 Tennessee to 12-1 USC/TCU/Clemson on selection Sunday? Picking the Vols over a one-loss conference champion would represent a scenario that hasn’t happened before.
  • 2016 Ohio State does give some precedent to the Vols getting in over SEC Champion LSU. That year, Penn State actually beat the Buckeyes head-to-head, then won the Big Ten. But their two losses – including 49-10 to Michigan – kept them out over Ohio State’s lone 24-21 loss in Happy Valley.

I count eight one-loss power five teams who got left out in the history of the playoff. Half of them involve the Big Ten. All of them seem to make sense:

  • 2014 Baylor & 2014 TCU were famously left out in the first year of the playoff for four other undefeated or one-loss conference champions, which directly led to the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. That year is also the only non-covid time any one-loss team was seeded higher than an undefeated power five champion (Florida State), though the Noles still made the playoffs at #3.
  • 2015 Iowa lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, putting 12-1 Sparty in and giving the Hawkeyes their first loss, leaving them out. Ohio State was also 11-1 this year with a narrow loss to Michigan State, but ended the season with just one ranked win. It didn’t matter for making the playoff, but the committee did put them behind 11-2 Pac-12 Champion Stanford in their final ranking.
  • 2017 Wisconsin, like 2015 Iowa, was undefeated going to the Big Ten title game, but lost to Ohio State. The Buckeyes still didn’t get in at 11-2, left out for 11-1 (and eventual national champs) Alabama who didn’t make Atlanta. The committee went Alabama #4, Ohio State #5, Wisconsin #6.
  • 2018 Ohio State won the Big Ten, but lost to Purdue 49-20 in the regular season. That year three teams finished the regular season undefeated, plus 12-1 Oklahoma, who got in at #4. Georgia was 11-2 and finished #5, then the Buckeyes.
  • 2020 Texas A&M finished 8-1 in the pandemic year. They lost 52-24 to Alabama in the regular season, and finished #5 behind three undefeated/one-loss conference champions and 10-1 Notre Dame.
  • 2021 Notre Dame lost head-to-head to Cincinnati in the regular season; the Bearcats got in as the first Group of Five teams to make the playoffs while Notre Dame finished fifth.

Purely based on historical precedent, Tennessee’s biggest competition at present among one-loss teams is USC. But I wouldn’t even completely rule out Clemson or North Carolina just yet, or TCU if it loses just one game. The good news is, we’re still talking about two theoretical spots left if/when TCU loses and not just one.

The Vols have to keep winning, and looking good doing it doesn’t hurt. We’d certainly prefer not to be in a situation where the committee has to do something they’ve never done before to put Tennessee in. But the Vols should still have an amazing resume if that conversation ultimately takes place.

We’ll cross more of that bridge when we need to. For now: Go Vols, Go Baylor, Go Bruins.