Expected Win Total Machine - Week Zero

Here we go.

How many games will the Vols win this year? Our favorite way to find our what you really think is back: the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine launches today, and will be back every week throughout the season.

Enter your percentage guess for each game in the table below (something closer to 100 for Ball State, something closer to…not zero for Alabama or Georgia). Once you submit all your totals, you’ll get your expected win total for Tennessee’s regular season. We’ll keep tabs for the entire community and report back with how we’re all feeling later this week.

When we ran this after spring practice, our community total was 8.1 expected wins. I’m curious to see how that may have changed as we move toward game week.

Enjoy. Go Vols.

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Will Shelton

2 years ago

I’ve got the Vols at 8.2 regular season wins

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 7.3.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 99%

at Pittsburgh: 50%

vs Akron: 99%

vs Florida: 40%

at LSU: 35%

vs Alabama: 1%

vs UT-Martin: 99%

vs Kentucky: 55%

at Georgia: 5%

vs Missouri: 90%

at South Carolina: 65%

at Vanderbilt: 95%

Author

Will Shelton

2 years ago

Reply to HT

Must we beat Bama before we get more than 1%?

Also, clearly not a believer in Missouri!

2 years ago

Reply to Will Shelton

Ha, I’m not sure that beating them once would be enough.

And these were all completely off the top of my head without any research whatsoever. But my recollection is that Mizzou is supposed to be terrible. I could be way off on that.

Isaac Bishop

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 7.7.Your details:
vs Ball State: 99%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 10%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 70%
at South Carolina: 65%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

Honestly it’s lower than I expected. Personally I’m feeling 9 wins, but 8 is probably more reasonable.

Harley

2 years ago

Here is my optimistic assessment at the zero mark. Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 8.8.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 70%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 80%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 15%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 50%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 95%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 100%

2 years ago

Reply to Harley

I’m in my late 40s and I don’t think I have EVER been 80% sure we were going to beat Florida. Maybe in 1990.

Author

Will Shelton

2 years ago

Reply to HT

I’m 80% sure we’re going to beat Florida about an hour before kickoff.

Harley

2 years ago

Reply to HT

I am the eternal optimist and starved to beat the lizards… check back with me after Pittsburgh 😉

Jayyyy

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 7.7.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 95%

at Pittsburgh: 60%

vs Akron: 90%

vs Florida: 55%

at LSU: 50%

vs Alabama: 15%

vs UT-Martin: 95%

vs Kentucky: 60%

at Georgia: 10%

vs Missouri: 80%

at South Carolina: 70%

at Vanderbilt: 93%

Tom Turley

2 years ago

7.8 for me, lower than expected. Aside from the two redcoats, the only team I didn’t have us favored to beat was Pittsburgh (45%). However, Florida and LSU were just above the toss-up line (55%), which probably accounts for the low score. I’m still not sure about our defense, and I have a lingering case of Battered Vol Syndrome. Still hoping for 10 wins!

Tom Turley

2 years ago

Reply to Tom Turley

P.S. Should have said SEC “redcoats.” Not too worried about the Ball State Cardinals!

Caban

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 8.4.Your details:
vs Ball State: 95%
at Pittsburgh: 70%
vs Akron: 98%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 55%
vs Alabama: 35%
vs UT-Martin: 97%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 25%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 60%
at Vanderbilt: 95%

Caban

2 years ago

Reply to Caban

For the record, I don’t do 100% picks as a rule… at least not until I see us playing a middle school. But here’s how I see things in descending order vis-a-vis upset potential. Ball State is probably better than Akron, which is probably worse than Tennessee Tech. Vandy gets the equivalent to Ball State treatment because they’ll have already played n entire SEC schedule and probably be 2-9 waiting for the season to wrap up. Missouri is going to struggle even if their defense is vastly improved… they may end up envying Vanderbilt’s QB room. Kentucky will be good,… Read more »

Sam Hensley

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 8.1.Your details:
vs Ball State: 98%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 65%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 15%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 55%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

Andrew Cooper

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 8.0.Your details:
vs Ball State: 99%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 25%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 20%
vs Missouri: 75%
at South Carolina: 65%
at Vanderbilt: 85%

Drew

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 6.8.Your details:
vs Ball State: 80%
at Pittsburgh: 40%
vs Akron: 90%
vs Florida: 50%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 10%
vs UT-Martin: 90%
vs Kentucky: 50%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 60%
at Vanderbilt: 70%

I don’t really know anything about a lot of these teams, but I will say the last few years my preseason guess has been closer to 5.5 wins.