Expected Win Total Machine – Week 3

5 2 votes
Article Rating

With the loss to Pitt, it’s a pretty safe bet that our community expected win total is going south of 7 after rounding up. We’ve spent the first two weeks at 6.74 and 6.60, but now the real question will be how many of us will dip into the 5’s this week. You know the drill:

If Pitt is good-to-great, we probably won’t know it for a minute. The Panthers’ next four weeks go Western Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia Tech, bye week. Until then, here’s how you might be feeling about the rest of Tennessee’s schedule this week:

  • About the same: Florida, probably, depending on how many Anthony Richardson highlights you watch and/or how much you think Dan Mullen will play him and/or how much you value non-Central directional Florida schools as opponents. You know how to value Alabama, which is to say we may not learn anything about the Gators this week either. South Carolina struggled early but rallied late to beat East Carolina. Georgia ran through UAB.
  • Probably worse: Ole Miss, and definitely worse since we last turned loose the win total machine before their game against Louisville last Monday night. The Rebels get Tulane, Alabama, and Arkansas before coming to Neyland, so there’s some time for opinion forming still. Somehow Kentucky and Missouri accomplished the rare feat of playing against each other and making me feel worse about our chances of beating either of them. The Tigers become the next big opportunity to move toward six wins; they’re at Boston College the week before hosting us, so we’ll see if things change between now and then on their end. And a late-night kudos to Vanderbilt, undefeated in FBS play.
5 2 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
14 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
HixsonVol
HixsonVol
1 month ago

Sitting at 6 this week
Your expected win total is 6.0.
Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: 35%

at Missouri: 35%

vs South Carolina: 55%

vs Mississippi: 35%

at Alabama: 2%

at Kentucky: 30%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%

HT
HT
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 5.2.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 95%

at Florida: 10%

at Missouri: 35%

vs South Carolina: 50%

vs Mississippi: 20%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 25%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 85%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

Slightly up from preseason (5.0) but down from last week (5.9). This feels about right. South Alabama dipped a bit since I learned last week that Jake Bentley is their QB.

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.7.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 0%

vs Tennessee Tech: 95%

at Florida: 35%

at Missouri: 45%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 20%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 45%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.3. Your details: at Bowling Green: 100% vs Pittsburgh: % vs Tennessee Tech: 100% at Florida: 30% at Missouri: 45% vs South Carolina: 60% vs Mississippi: 40% at Alabama: 3% at Kentucky: 40% vs Georgia: 15% vs South Alabama: 100% vs Vanderbilt: 95% Still feeling bowl record worthy. Florida went down slightly just because AR is putting up miraculous plays. I want to see how down to earth he looks compared to Bama. Everybody else stays the same. I don’t want to put a lot of stock into the UK-Miz game unless I’m sure one of… Read more »

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.0.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 99%

at Florida: 20%

at Missouri: 50%

vs South Carolina: 50%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 4%

at Kentucky: 45%

vs Georgia: 8%

vs South Alabama: 97%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

I forgot that SCAR almost lost to East Carolina before I filled out that number, so maybe that one should be a little higher.

Drew
Drew
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 5.9. Your details: at Bowling Green: 100% vs Pittsburgh: % vs Tennessee Tech: 95% at Florida: 25% at Missouri: 40% vs South Carolina: 65% vs Mississippi: 35% at Alabama: 5% at Kentucky: 50% vs Georgia: 10% vs South Alabama: 90% vs Vanderbilt: 70% I thought I was being a good deal more optimistic this week, but I ended up going from 5.7 to 5.9, so not much change. I think we have a much better picture of where this team is. We’re not going to compete against good-to-great teams (Florida, Alabama, Georgia), but we’re not gonna… Read more »

Harley
Harley
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.0.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: 40%

at Missouri: 40%

vs South Carolina: 40%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

A lot of “if’s”, “and’s” and “but’s” going forward… Florida the next big test! Hope we get the QB situation figured out and get rid of those penalties. Go Vols!

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 5.7.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 98%

at Florida: 20%

at Missouri: 30%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 30%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 35%

vs Georgia: 7%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 85%

About a half a win less than last week, makes sense.

HT
HT
1 month ago

Wow, I know I generally keep my expectations low but did not expect to be the low man on the site this early.

Josh Farrar
Josh Farrar
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 5.4.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: 15%

at Missouri: 30%

vs South Carolina: 75%

vs Mississippi: 10%

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 20%

vs Georgia: 0%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%