The Vols are 5-0, and we will in all likelihood see their expected win total rise to 10-2 becoming the most likely outcome. Last week our community put that number at 9.26 expected regular season wins, and that was before the 40-13 beat down in Baton Rouge.
We’ve been running the win total machine since 2017, so we don’t have the apples to apples comparison available with 2016, the last time UT started 5-0. The Vols were #9 headed to Texas A&M that season, and stayed there to face Alabama the following week. This obviously turned out to be an incorrect assumption, but there was a belief at the time that UT’s schedule would become much, much easier after the Aggies and Tide.
All that to say: would our expected win total for the 2016 Vols going into Texas A&M have been higher than what it will be right now? There is, of course, no way to know for sure. Those Vols beat unranked (but later ranked) Virginia Tech on a neutral field, #19 Florida, and #25 Texas A&M Georgia (duh). These Vols won at #17 Pittsburgh, beat #20 Florida, and blew out #25 LSU on the road. These Vols also have defending national champion Kirby Smart instead of year one Kirby Smart on the schedule.
Anyway, I do think that 2016 group would’ve found themselves in the 10-win projection neighborhood going to A&M. And I think we’re going to find the same here.
We’ve also had so many years of doing this where we asked ourselves, “Is 5% too high for Alabama?” After being +13 against Bama in 2016, the last few years Tennessee has faced lines of +36, +29, +34, +21, and +25. Right now, it’s at +7.5.
Fun week ahead. Enjoy it.
