Last week our community win total moved to 10.72 regular season wins. Here’s the week-by-week total:
This week’s win total machine is at the bottom of this post; I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number come down just a hair, as last week’s total includes that Monday morning feeling of having just beaten Alabama. But no matter how you look at it…we’ve come a long way in a hurry.
On October 10, 2020, Tennessee led #3 Georgia 21-17 at halftime. After two turnovers, it was still within reach at 23-21 Georgia with 35 seconds left in the third quarter. The Dawgs found the end zone on 3rd-and-7 from the 21, the Vols went three-and-out, and Georgia added two more scores from there for a 44-21 win.
The Vols were close for a half, then had a turnover-induced setback to leave us with a similar end result to our previous three encounters with Georgia. Still, forward progress seemed available and attainable. The Vols welcomed Kentucky to Neyland Stadium the following Saturday.
In pre-covid days, October 17 was our bye week, so I was at my sister-in-law’s wedding. I wasn’t there in person to witness what happened or describe its atmosphere. The radio told me the Vols turned it over on four consecutive possessions, two of them pick sixes. Even so, it was only 17-7 at halftime.
To open the third quarter, the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at their own 29. Eric Gray got a yard, and Tennessee punted. And a Kentucky offense that had been completely bottled up in the first half came to life, and took it from Tennessee. 75 yards in 11 plays, never facing more than 3rd-and-1, and a three-possession lead. The Vols punted once more. Kentucky’s punter never saw the field again.
The 34-7 victory for the Wildcats remains Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread in 40+ years, favored by 6.5 and losing by 27. It wasn’t the last straw for the previous administration. But in hindsight, the Vols got no closer to forward progress than at halftime of the Georgia game the week before. And six quarters later, the bottom fell out.
That was two years ago. That was the last time Kentucky came to Neyland Stadium.
And there may be no better point from which to measure the growth of this program than what has transpired since then.
I’ve got the Vols at 10.9 wins this week, down just a hair from 11 last week. Think that’s more about putting the Kentucky game in proper perspective with a little distance from Bama, and less about South Carolina.
Yep, went down a little bit from 11. Slightly more nervous about our trip to USCe.
Your expected win total is 10.8.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 80%
at Georgia: 30%
vs Missouri: 90%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Down just a bit to 10.8 this week.
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 75%
at Georgia: 50%
vs Missouri: 85%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
10.6 this week, down from 10.9. There are some trap games on this schedule yall.
Worried about our defensive backfield and concerned that any chance we had against Georgia will fade without some healthy players back there.
11.1
Gotta say I am just feeling very very confident against everyone but UGA. I don’t see how any of the other teams can hang with us offensively.
I was tempted to input confidence levels of “98” across the board but that would mess with Will’s aggregate data so I’ll leave it alone
Ps. I miss the statsy preview machine Joel.
Hello, Evan! Your expected win total is 10.9. Your details: vs Ball State: 100% at Pittsburgh: 100% vs Akron: 100% vs Florida: 100% at LSU: 100% vs Alabama: 100% vs UT-Martin: 100% vs Kentucky: 77% at Georgia: 20% vs Missouri: 99% at South Carolina: 99% at Vanderbilt: 99% The Statsy Preview Machine has made a trip down to City Hall to change his name to Hat Guy. Not so nerdy, he thinks. Here’s what he thinks about the remaining games: Kentucky: Vols -9.7 Georgia: Bulldogs -20, which he doesn’t believe, so he went with Bulldogs -11 Missouri:: Vols -24 South Carolina:… Read more »
Your expected win total is 10.7.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 85%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Your expected win total is 10.9.Your details: vs Ball State: 100% at Pittsburgh: 100% vs Akron: 100% vs Florida: 100% at LSU: 100% vs Alabama: 100% vs UT-Martin: 100% vs Kentucky: 80% at Georgia: 40% vs Missouri: 90% at South Carolina: 85% at Vanderbilt: 95% Hardly any change Biggest mover SC 85% up 5% It looks like the majority of the voters felt worse about this game after their big win. After watching it live I actually feel better. A&M, despite how bad they are, was the better team. They basically hand SC the 17 points with the kickoff return and… Read more »
Your expected win total is 11.0.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 82%
at Georgia: 42%
vs Missouri: 95%
at South Carolina: 88%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Up to 10.9… my biggest fear is Kentucky… I hope the Vols heads are not looking forward to Georgia and go in to this game unfocused. Keep focus and execute… good things will come. Go Vols!
Your expected win total is 10.9.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 75%
at Georgia: 50%
vs Missouri: 85%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 95%