So, you’re going to project the Vols to finish with right at seven wins this week. The math involved is if you give Tennessee enough of a chance against Georgia to counterbalance whatever chance you give South Alabama and Vanderbilt against Tennessee. But it’s a pretty safe bet to assume seven.
The interesting question here is just how much of a chance you do give the Vols on Saturday. In Tuscaloosa, that number was 6.7%. Tennessee was a 24.5 point underdog at the end of the week; the Vols are around 20.5 on this Tuesday morning.
We’re no stranger to playing the number one team in the land, having done it against Alabama seven of the last 13 seasons. Since beating Bo Jackson and #1 Auburn in 1985, the Vols have faced the top team a dozen times overall:
- 1990 Notre Dame (L 34-29)
- 1994 Florida (L 31-0)
- 2002 Miami (L 26-3)
- 2009 Florida (L 33-23)
- 2009 Alabama (L 12-10)
- 2011 LSU (L 38-7)
- 2012 Alabama (L 44-13)
- 2013 Alabama (L 45-10)
- 2016 Alabama (L 49-10)
- 2017 Alabama (L 45-7)
- 2018 Alabama (L 58-21)
- 2019 Alabama (L 35-13)
In that span, Tennessee has four wins over #2 (1985 Miami, 1998 Florida, 1998 Florida State, 2001 Florida), got #3 Georgia in 2004, and last beat a Top 5 team in The Rally at Death Valley over #4 LSU the following year.
How much of a chance do we give these Vols compared to any of those? It’s obviously less than anything from Phillip Fulmer’s tenure. But it’s probably more than most of that run against Alabama. It’s enough to be curious, just to see what happens…and this year, this week? That’s good enough for me.
