With pretty much every future Vols’ opponent but Vanderbilt looking better during Tennessee’s bye week, the weekly reassessment of expected win totals is not a happy exercise. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.
I did not dream of Nick Saban showing me up on the cornet in front of the other band nerds last night. So there’s that.
Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season
| Opponent | Preseason | W7 | W8 | W9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | TN -21.9 | |||
| MO | TN -10.1 | |||
| GA | GA -26.2 | |||
| KY | KY -.7 | |||
| AL | AL -27.9 | AL -25.1 | ||
| AR | TN -14.1 | AR -.2 | AR -4.1 | TN -.5 |
| TAMU | TAMU -6.4 | TN -1 | TAMU -3.7 | TAMU -9.7 |
| AUB | AUB -9.6 | AUB -4.8 | AUB -6.9 | AUB -18.7 |
| VAN | TN -9.4 | TN -21 | TN -21.2 | TN -21 |
| FL | FL -22.8 | FL -13.6 | FL -14.4 | FL -21.8 |
Well, the good news is that the Vandy game looks the same and that the Arkansas game is back to a toss-up. The bad news is . . . every other game looks worse this morning, which sounds about right.
My assessment
My expected win total for this season is now 4.0.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 5.4
- After beating South Carolina: 5.8
- After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
- After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
- After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
- After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
- After the bye week: 4.0
Details: I have Florida at 10%, Auburn at 25% (big mover this week), Texas A&M at 35% (down from 40%), Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.
Here’s a visual:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ South Carolina | W | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Missouri | W | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 3 Georgia | L | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Kentucky | L | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 48-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Arkansas | L | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 23 Auburn | L | 30-17 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 6 Florida | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 19 | @ Vanderbilt (??) |
Again, nothing new to analyze for the Vols this bye week so any adjustments to expectations will come from the results of other games.
The Vols’ future opponents
Arkansas Razorbacks
Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 4 Georgia | L | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 16 Mississippi State | W | 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 13 Auburn | L | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Ole Miss | W | 33-21 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 8 Texas A&M | L | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs Tennessee | W | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ 6 Florida | L | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs LSU | L | 27-24 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Missouri |
Hmm. A tough one right out of the gate. A&M looked really good, but so did Arkansas at times, and an 11-point loss to a team ranked No. 8 in the nation is nothing to be ashamed of. I had this game at 50% last week, and although the Hogs looked good, I’m sticking with that, largely because the SPM is also calling this one a toss-up. 50%.
Texas A&M
Current record: 4-1, 2nd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 4 Florida | W | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Mississippi State | W | 28-14 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Arkansas | W | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ South Carolina | W | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Ole Miss | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs LSU | W | 20-7 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 22 Auburn | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Tennessee |
As I said, A&M looked good, and they looked good against an Arkansas team that didn’t look bad. I had this one at 40% last week, and although that seems maybe kinda right, I’m actually going to move it to 35% until I see some improvement from the Vols. 35%.
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 23 Kentucky | W | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 4 Georgia | L | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Arkansas | W | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ South Carolina | L | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Ole Miss | W | 35-28 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs LSU | W | 48-11 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Tennessee | W | 30-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Mississippi State |
Yikes. After getting quite lucky in a couple of games this season, Auburn made LSU look terrible and clobbered them 48-11. LSU has problems, I know, but you can’t watch that game and not think Auburn’s going to be more of a challenge than you thought last week. So, I’m moving this one from 45% to 25%, which makes me weepy.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-4, 7th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 10 Texas A&M | L | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 20 LSU | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs South Carolina | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Ole Miss | L | 54-21 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Mississippi State | L | 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Kentucky | L | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs 6 Florida | L | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Missouri | L | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 9 Georgia | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | ??? |
No news here, as the Commodores got blown out by Ole Miss, 54-21. Keeping this game at 80%.
Florida Gators
Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Ole Miss | W | 51-35 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs South Carolina | W | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 21 Texas A&M | L | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Missouri | W | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 5 Georgia | W | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Arkansas | W | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Kentucky | W | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Tennessee | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs LSU |
Well, crud. It appears that the Gators made good use of their double bye week to patch a leaky defense. Great. If this game wasn’t already at 10%, I’d change it. As it is, though, I’m keeping it at 10%.
The Vols’ past opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 16 Tennessee | L | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 3 Florida | L | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Auburn | W | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ LSU | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 7 Texas A&M | L | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Ole Miss | L | 59-42 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Missouri | L | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 9 Georgia | L | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Kentucky |
The Gamecocks were off this week as well. But just try to make sense of that resume. A loss to Tennessee, a win over Auburn, a blow-out loss to LSU, which just got blown out by Auburn. This kind of chaos might actually be good news for the Vols, as it suggests that most any team can beat (or lose to) any team any given week (Alabama excluded, naturally). Or it could mean that early season results mean little during a pandemic.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 21 Tennessee | L | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 17 LSU | W | 45-41 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Vanderbilt | Postponed | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs Kentucky | W | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 10 Florida | L | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs 5 Georgia | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ South Carolina | W | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Arkansas | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 |
Again, chaos. A loss to Tennessee. A win over Kentucky, who beat Tennessee. A blow-out loss to Florida, which may say more about Florida than anything else, but who really knows? Trying to draw conclusions about Tennessee from that loss or from that resume generally is a fool’s errand.
Georgia
Current record: 4-1, 1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Arkansas | W | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 7 Auburn | W | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 14 Tennessee | W | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ Kentucky | W | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 8 Florida | L | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Missouri | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ South Carolina | W | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Vanderbilt |
Due to the idea that general chaos renders any confidence about such things imprudent, I’ll just ask a question: Is Georgia’s offense perhaps struggling as much as maybe we thought it might (except against Tennessee and a brand-spanking-new Arkansas team), or is Kentucky’s defense just really good?
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-4, 6th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 8 Auburn | L | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Ole Miss | L | 42-41 (OT) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Mississippi State | W | 24-2 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Tennessee | W | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Missouri | L | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs 5 Georgia | L | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 6 Florida | L | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs South Carolina |
See Georgia above. I think Kentucky is better than its schedule will allow the Wildcats to show. Which could be good news for the Vols, as they need an extra win to erase a tiebreaker with Kentucky.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Missouri | W | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 13 Texas A&M | W | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Ole Miss | W | 63-48 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs 3 Georgia | W | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Tennessee | W | 48-17 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ LSU | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Kentucky | W | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 22 Auburn | W | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Arkansas |
Who hates these guys?
Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.