Last week wasn’t the best for the GRT Statsy Preview Machine. Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 18-23 (43.9%) overall, 5-7 (41.67%) in Category 2, and 4-2 (66.67%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 189-172 (52.35%) in Category 1, 73-64 (53.28%) in Category 2, and 36-30 (54.55%) in Category 3. For the past few weeks, we’ve been keeping track of a sort of “Category 4” group, which consists only of Category 3 games that also agree with SP+. The three-week tally for those is 9-0.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 20-21 (48.78%) overall for the week.

SP+, on the other hand, had an excellent week, going 25-16 (61%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 191-166-6 (53.4%). Against our spreads, it was 23-18 (56.10%) for the week and is 204-157 (56.51%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 13 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 13 Picks

According to that, which uses the opening spreads, there are a whopping 14 Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:

  • Georgia at South Carolina (Georgia -18.5)
  • Utah at Arizona State (Utah +6.5)
  • Southern Miss at UAB (UAB -17)
  • SMU at East Carolina (SMU -10.5)
  • Coastal Carolina at Texas State (Coastal Carolina -16)
  • UTEP at Rice (Rice -8)
  • Florida Atlantic at MTSU (Florida Atlantic -6.5)

As I said above, let’s call those Category 4 games. I’ve been tracking those for three weeks (and posting them for for two), and over that time they are 9-0, which of course means they’ll go 0-7 this week. 🙂

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Jayyyy
Jayyyy
3 years ago

Thanks Joel, I’ve really wanted to create my own SPM for NFL games but haven’t gotten around to it.

Is this an error in the table: LSU favored by 1.5 over A&M? That can’t be can it?

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
3 years ago

Oh ok, that makes sense. Very interesting that they opened up the line back in march, although they were probably originally scheduled to play earlier in the season. Should have jumped on the aggies bet then haha