Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?
If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.
Only a little, though, so a loss here doesn’t end or dramatically change Tennessee’s own bubble hopes. The Vols were in the next four out in the January 23 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 96 brackets (16.7%). Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the first team out.
This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:
| Year | KenPom | Record | Finish |
| 2019 | 26.24 | 31-6 | Sweet 16 |
| 2014 | 23.69 | 24-13 | Sweet 16 |
| 2018 | 22.27 | 26-9 | Round 2 |
| 2008 | 22.17 | 31-5 | Sweet 16 |
| 2006 | 19.44 | 22-8 | Round 2 |
| 2010 | 18.50 | 28-9 | Elite 8 |
| 2007 | 18.29 | 24-11 | Sweet 16 |
| 2009 | 16.48 | 21-13 | Round 1 |
| 2020 | 13.50 | 12-6 | |
| 2002 | 12.67 | 15-16 | |
| 2017 | 12.62 | 16-16 | |
| 2011 | 12.41 | 19-15 | Round 1 |
| 2012 | 11.38 | 19-15 | NIT |
| 2003 | 10.99 | 17-12 | NIT |
| 2013 | 10.47 | 20-13 | NIT |
| 2005 | 8.89 | 14-17 | |
| 2016 | 7.31 | 15-19 | |
| 2004 | 7.30 | 15-14 | NIT |
| 2015 | 7.24 | 16-16 |
The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.
If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).
Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.
So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.
But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.
It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:
- Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
- NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
- Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
- DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom
And here’s who went to Dayton last year:
- Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
- Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
- St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
- Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom
Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.
A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:
- Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
- Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
- LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
- Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
- Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
- TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
- Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
- #15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
- Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
- #1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN
The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.
At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.
There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.
The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.
It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.
So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.
And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:
- Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
- South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
- Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
- Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)
Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.
The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.
College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.
Go Vols.