Gameday on Rocky Top

The SPM took it on the chin in Week 3, going 17-24 (41.46%) on all games (excluding those involving FCS teams and those for which there were insufficient comps). Above what is usually a magic confidence level, it went 6-8 (42.86%) and within the usual magic confidence range, it managed only 3-3 (50%).

Last week, we pulled out all of the games involving FCS opponents so that we could monitor them separately. The early returns are mixed: It was better over the confidence level and in the confidence range as you’d expect, but slightly worse overall. It was a weird week, though, so we’ll just keep monitoring. Also, this was the first week we actually compiled results separately depending on whether the SPM complained about not having at least two good comps. The official results we post here are those that don’t include the games involving FCS opponents or those for which the SPM doesn’t have at least two good comps. That only starts in Week 3, though, as the official results for Weeks 1 and 2 include both of those categories as of now.

For the season so far, the SPM is 61-69 (46.92%) overall, 33-32 (50.77%) over the confidence threshold, and 17-11 (60.71%) within the confidence range.

Although it was a game involving an FCS opponent and thus didn’t count toward the official results, the SPM did get the Tennessee-Chattanooga game right, saying the Vols would easily cover the 24-28 point spread. Let’s take a look to see what it says this week about the Gators

Vols-Gators

We’re only three weeks into the 2019 season, and although there are now enough comps to work with, some of them are still a bit questionable. For that reason, we’re still using a combination of 2018 and 2019 data and weighing them accordingly.

2018

Without going through all of it, the 2018 data spits out an estimated score of Florida 41.4, Tennessee 18.9. That uses spot-on comps, but it’s last year’s teams.

From the perspective of 2019 Tennessee

Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 33.7
Florida scoring defense for the season: 13.7

The Florida scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
BYU 27.7
Georgia State 43
Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points.
Against Georgia State, Tennessee scored 30 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Florida: 28

Those are bad scoring defense comps, with BYU and Georgia State both being significantly worse than Florida, so assuming the Vols are going to score about what they scored against those teams is suspect. Bottom line: Be wary of that 28 points for Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.3
Florida scoring offense for the season: 32.7

The Florida scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Georgia State 32
BYU 23.7
Against BYU, Tennessee allowed 29 points.
Against Georgia State, Tennessee allowed 38 points.

Estimated points for Florida against Tennessee: 33.5

Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Florida 33.5

From the perspective of 2019 Florida

Florida scoring offense for the season: 32.7
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.3

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s) (FBS only):
Kentucky 23.3
Miami (Florida) 17.3
Against Kentucky, Florida scored 29 points.
Against Miami (Florida), Florida scored 24 points.

Estimated points for Florida against Tennessee: 26.5

Florida scoring defense for the season: 13.7
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 33.7

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s):
Kentucky 32.3
Miami (Florida) 36
Against Kentucky, Florida allowed 21 points.
Against Miami (Florida), Florida allowed 20 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Florida: 20.5

That’s much better data to use to determine Tennessee points.

Estimated score: Florida 26.5, Tennessee 20.5

SPM Final Estimates

Putting all of that together, here’s what the SPM gets:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 23.1, Florida 33.8

SPM Final estimated spread: Florida -10.7

SPM Confidence level: 3.3

That confidence level puts it under our threshold for feeling very good about it, at least against the spread.

Eyeball adjustments

That looks about right for Florida’s points, but seems a wee bit high on Tennessee’s points . For that reason, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Florida 34, Tennessee 20.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line has Florida as the favorite at between -14 and -14.5 with an over/under of 48.5 – 49. That translates to something approximating Tennessee 17, Florida 31.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Florida 35-17 and gives the Vols a 14% chance of winning. SP+ is 54.3% overall and 64% on games for which it and the spread are at least three points apart.

As I said above, for the season, our SPM is 61-69 (46.92%) overall, 33-32 (50.77%) over the confidence threshold, and 17-11 (60.71%) within the confidence range. That would put our overall number 38th on this projection tracker. Our favorites-only number would be 1st. Well, second behind Bill’s and only until everyone else was allowed to use their favorites-only number.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 13.9% chance of winning.

Bottom line

Florida by 14 seems about right. Let’s hope right is wrong this week.

What are y’all thinking?

We’re a quarter of the way in, but now the real season starts as the Vols head into SEC play against the Florida Gators this Saturday in Gainesville. Tennessee is a sizeable underdog, although that often doesn’t matter as much as which color jersey The Weirdness is wearing. Sure, he’s usually on the wrong team, but he has to graduate at some point, doesn’t he?

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans this week, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Not too exciting, but what else are you doing Thursday night in the fall?

Friday, September 20, 2019

Maybe?

Gameday, September 21, 2019

It’s Vols-Gators at high noon on ESPN in The Swamp, Tennessee hoping for an upset. A couple of future Vols opponents are also in action, but those games shouldn’t provide much entertainment or education.

In the afternoon slot, it’s No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M on CBS. Four future Vols opponents — Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Missouri — are in two games at the same time, so check in on them every once in a while or DVR them to watch later.

The game of the week is No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia at 8:00 on CBS. Who are you rooting for in that one? I’m going green.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Just before kickoff of the first Tennessee-Florida game as Eastern Division rivals in 1992 (after the old SEC rotation brought them on each other’s schedule in 1990 and 1991), one of my dad’s friends made a comment in our section about how the Gators would soon become Tennessee’s biggest rival. To my 10 year old brain, that was blasphemy – and it still sounds a little that way at 37 – but if we’d all known what was coming, we might’ve agreed.

The other answer to that question is a rivalry built on streaks. This one, turning 30 this week, has arguably carried a more potent brand of both agony and ecstasy. Alabama and Tennessee take turns being big brother. With the Gators, Tennessee has been little brother that wins just enough for us to want more.

Images from those wins are burned in our memories. Dale Carter to open the second half. Mose Phillips in the rain. No-sir-ree. Travis Stephens vs Guss Scott. James Banks and James Wilhoit. And Jauan Jennings gleefully coming down the sideline.

A question we asked a lot during the Butch Jones era was some form of, “Doesn’t Tennessee actually have the better team this year?” It’s the one we wanted to be true all those years in the 90’s, when losses could at least be chalked up to elite competition. As lesser Florida teams still found a way to turn the Vols into even lesser versions of themselves, the rivalry evolved into a new level of frustration. The Gators were, for a long time, the team standing between Tennessee and the top of the mountain. Most recently they’ve become the team that’s kept Tennessee from being “back”.

There’s a world of should’ve packed into this decade with the Gators. In the mid-90’s, Florida took hope away early. In the last seven years, they’ve stolen it late. In 2012 the Vols led 20-13 with five minutes left in the third quarter and lost (by 17). In 2014 the Vols led 9-0 on the next-to-last play of the third quarter when Justin Worley was blindsided. The Vols lost. In 2015 the Vols scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes left in The Swamp, chose not to go for two, and it all went very bad from there. And in 2017 the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the nine with a minute left, settled for three to tie, and you know how that ended too.

So it was almost nostalgic when Florida took Tennessee’s hope right away last season, a hyper-aggressive gameplan backfiring into six turnovers and Tennessee’s first ten drives ending in something other than a punt or a touchdown.

Tennessee doesn’t have the better team this year on paper. In 30 years of doing this, the Vols have been favored to beat Florida seven times (via Covers.com). And the Vols have beaten Florida seven times. Three times, Vegas got it right: the Vols rolled in that first meeting against Spurrier in 1990 from -4.5 to a 45-3 win. Tennessee was -3 in 2004 when James Wilhoit went from goat to hero. And three years ago, the Vols turned -4 into a 21-3 hole into 35 straight points.

Four times, the Vols have lost as a favorite: nightmarish first halves in the rain in 1996 and 2002 in Neyland, that nightmarish finish in 2012, and four years ago in The Swamp, the only time Tennessee has been favored in Gainesville (-1) since the rivalry was played annually.

(I’d rate that loss, by the way, as third-worst of my lifetime. 2001 LSU is the undisputed champion, and I hope stays there for the rest of my life. 1990 Alabama is number two. But I think everything about that 2015 loss – the series of horrendous coaching decisions in those last 10 minutes, the carryover fury from Oklahoma, and the fact that it cost the Vols the SEC East when other infamous losses cost Tennessee far less – it’s the worst of a very bad time these last 12 years.)

Four times, Tennessee pulled the upset. In the downpour in 1992 at +4.5 with a young Phillip Fulmer on the sideline. The eventual National Champions were +3 when Collins Cooper sailed wide. The last win in The Swamp in 2003 came with the Vols +3. And, of course, the +16.5 in December 2001 in what is still the best football game involving one of my teams I’ve ever seen.

This year, the Vols opened at +12.5. It quickly swelled to +14.5. Despite only beating the Gators seven times in 29 tries, +14.5 is the third biggest line the Vols have faced in this series, trailing the 16.5 they turned around in 2001, and the +30 they easily covered when everyone thought Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin.

Unlike the current nature of the Alabama rivalry, where the Vols have faced lines of 29.5, 36.5, 28, and 29 in this decade, Florida is always right there within reach. It’s what makes it hurt more when the Vols fail to grab it. And it’s what makes us hope – even this year – that another Saturday we’ll remember forever might get added to our list.

As you’d expect against an FCS foe, the Vols’ national stat rankings improved quite a bit this week. Here’s a closer look.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Climbed into the Top 30: Red zone offense, tackles for loss allowed

Fell to the Bottom 30: 4th down conversion percentage

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing this week (because nothing was in the Top 30 last week!)

Nearly everything is better on offense, with the exception of the passing game.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Scoring defense, which went from 112th to 55th. Woo for shutouts against FCS opponents.

Climbed into the Top 30: Team passing efficiency defense, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense. Also, passes intercepted, when compared to the most recent ranking in 2018.

Fell to the Bottom 30: Nothing, although 3rd down conversion percentage defense remains there even with a slight improvement.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing, technically, although sacks fell dramatically from just out of the Top 30 all the way to 79th.

Most everything is improving, with the exception of sacks and tackles for loss. Third down is still a problem.

Special Teams

Special teams is currently the strength of the team by a long shot. The worst ranking here is No. 30, in kickoff returns. Net punting is one spot away from being the legit best in the nation.

Turnovers and Penalties

Five turnovers this week against the Mocs shook things up here, with turnovers gained teleporting straight from the cellar (No. 105) to the penthouse (No. 20), turnover margin going from No. 113 to No. 32, and the others seeing vast improvement. Regarding penalties, the number of them improved, but the actual penalty yards took a bit of a hit.