Putting Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the oppositional rankings for Georgia suggests (1) that the Bulldogs’ defense is going to make the Vols’ offense look bad even if they’ve improved, (2) that the Vols might be able to hold on for a while on defense, and (3) that any opportunity to make this a game will probably come courtesy of special teams or the Maxim 1 categories of turnovers and penalties.
Vols on offense
When Tennessee’s offense goes up against Georgia’s defense, the Vols have only one slight advantage, in Tackles for Loss Allowed. Note that even that is offset by Sacks Allowed, where Georgia has a big advantage, so it’s not that the Bulldogs aren’t getting through the line.
Other than that, the Georgia defense has huge advantages all over the board, most notably on 1st downs. And 4th downs. And Total Defense. They also have the advantage on 3rd downs. Second downs aren’t measured. Sigh. The biggest disparity when the Vols have the ball is on first downs, where the Vols rank only 113th, and they’re going up against a defense ranking No. 7.
Bottom line, expect the Vols’ offense to have a long, long day. Even if they have improved since the beginning of the season, Georgia’s defense is going to make it difficult to see. They’re going to look bad even if they’re actually better, so just brace for it.
Vols on defense
It’s a little more even on the other side of the ball, with Tennessee’s defense having slightly better numbers than Georgia’s defense in the passing game and on 1st and 4th downs.
But Georgia still has more and bigger advantages, most notably in tackles for loss, which is the biggest disparity when the Dawgs have the ball. There’s a similar disparity in sacks. The numbers suggest that the Vols defense is not getting at the guy holding or carrying the ball behind the line of scrimmage.
Special teams
Tennessee might have an actual advantage in special teams. The biggest disparity in the entire matchup comes when Tennessee is kicking off, as the Vols rank 1st in the nation in defense (presumably because our kicker is the King of Touchbacks) and the Bulldogs rank 114th in returning kicks.
There’s also an opportunity for Marquez Callaway to maybe make something happen in the punt return game. This, of course, assumes Georgia punts.
Where the numbers favor Georgia on special teams, it’s only slightly.
Turnovers and penalties
Well look at this. The optimist in me perked up at discovering that the Vols rank better than Georgia at nearly every penalty and turnover category. Unfortunately, rivals will point to this to mock Neyland and his First Maxim.
The Vols host Georgia this Saturday night at Neyland and on ESPN, but there are other games of interest to Tennessee fans this weekend as well. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.
First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.
Thursday, October 3, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Georgia Southern
South Alabama
7:30 PM
ESPNU
Never mind.
Temple
East Carolina
8:00 PM
ESPN
That is the extent of the Thursday night slate. So yeah, never mind.
Friday, October 4, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
18 UCF
Cincinnati
8:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Top 25 team
Could be fun.
Gameday, October 5, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
14 Iowa
19 Michigan
12:00 PM
FOX
Live
Top 25 matchup
AFTERNOON
7 Auburn
10 Florida
3:30 PM
CBS
Live
Top 10 matchup
EVENING
3 Georgia
Tennessee
7:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Go Vols
Lots of good games this Gameday, and without a lot of competition. In the noon slate, Iowa and Michigan square off in a Top 25 matchup on Fox, and Auburn and Florida do the same at 3:30 on CBS.
The offense needs to get on track, but is the defense actually improving despite a struggling defensive line?
Offense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Joining 4th down conversion percentage in the cellar are Total Offense and First Downs Offense. There’s a line at the door, too.
Fell out of the Top 30: Tackles for Loss Allowed and Red Zone Offense.
This thing looks like my lawn: not a lick of green and a single spark away from catching on fire.
Defense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Um . . . nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss joins 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense.
Fell out of the Top 30: Red Zone Defense.
Really, considering that the Vols can’t generate a pass rush or push the line back with just its defensive line, this isn’t terrible. Pass defense is pretty good, assuming that it’s not just because everybody’s too busy running the ball. But even the rushing defense appears to be improving.
Special Teams
Still the strength of the team.
Turnovers and Penalties
Penalties are not terrible from a quantity standpoint, but are significantly worse from a number-of-yards perspective. The turnovers categories appear to be very volatile from game to game, so they just need to do it every time.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
The Vols were off this week, and the results from prior opponents didn’t really have much impact one way or the other. But results from future opponents did rearrange things a bit and improve expectations every so slightly.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.25, up a teensy bit from last week.
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
Details: Alabama and Georgia both remain at 5%. After that, I have three groups: Missouri and South Carolina are at 25%, Mississippi State and Kentucky are at 35%, and Vanderbilt and UAB are at 50%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
Like the Vols, the Panthers were off this week.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-3 (0-0)
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
Toledo returned an interception 40 yards to the 2-yard line in the last minute of the game to get the go-ahead touchdown.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 2-3 (1-0), 3rd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Florida Gators
Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Nothing to see here.
The Vols’ future opponents
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
The Bulldogs were also off this week.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 4th in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
These Bulldogs, however, were not off. Well, actually, they were “off,” but in a different sense of the word, meaning they got absolutely clobbered by the Auburn Tigers. Even those 23 points are misleading.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
The Tide defense gave up 476 yards, and yet the team still won by 28 points. Sigh.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
I think the take on South Carolina so far is exactly what we said in our magazine prior to the season: They are actually good, but their brutal schedule obscures it. They basically throttled Kentucky’s offense.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 4th in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
With three losses in a row now (and only two wins — against Toledo and Eastern Michigan), these guys are looking like they really miss Benny Snell and Josh Allen, not to mention injured quarterback Terry Wilson. The offense could do nothing against the Gamecocks. They still look better than the current version of the Vols, though.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Off this week.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 6th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
Not much to be said about that.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
With the team on its first of two bye weeks of the season, the
Tennessee staff took the opportunity to hit the road and grant new offers to
multiple prospects. As discussed last
week, while the Vols are still very much in play for many of their top
targets they are at the same time long shots for many of the elite prospects with
whom they were very much in play before the season started. In fact, OLB Sa’vell Smalls, one of those
5-star prospects who visited over the summer and was heavily considering
Tennessee, committed to his homestate Washington Huskies this weekend. Therefore, in order to have a large enough
board to work from heading into the next two months before the early signing
period, it was imperative that the Vols staff widen its net some.
DT Jayson Jones is an Alabama commitment but hasn’t been shy about the fact that his recruitment is pretty darn open. Jones is a mountain of a man at 6’5+ and ~340 pounds with great mobility for that massive size, and checks in the Top 175 nationally in the composite rankings. Jones took a summer official visit to Georgia Tech and is currently scheduled to OV to Michigan in November, but importantly will be in Knoxville as an unofficial visitor for the UGA game after a school visit by ace Vol recruiter Brian Niedermeyer. Jones is the kind of DL that the Vols simply don’t have right now in terms of elite size combined with solid athleticism, and though his motor doesn’t always run hot that’s something that Tennessee coaches would love to have the chance to unlock. We’ll know more about the Vols chances with Jones, who will be a December signee and is potentially an early enrollee to boot, after this weekend, but the Vols clearly sense an opening with a kid from Alabama so they’ll look to pounce.
OLB Tamarion McDonald
is a Mississippi State commitment who is teammates with bigtime Vol target
and fellow Memphian Bryson Eason. McDonald is a bit of a tweener at 6’3ish and
~220 pounds, but he’s a playmaker all over the field for a very talented Whitehaven
defense that also includes Arkansas LB commitment Martavius French. As has
been well-documented by Austin Price of Volquest, with the Vols in a dogfight for
Eason and at the same time needing talented bodies across the entire defense,
making a push for French in particular in order to package him with Eason makes
a lot of sense. And if a) McDonald making
it a 3-man package increases those odds, b) locking all three up meaningfully
helps with bigtime DL priority Omari Thomas – also from Memphis – and c) most
importantly, Jeremy Pruitt and his staff think all three are upgrades to what
they have on the current roster, than these offers are a no brainer. Notably Pruitt made the offer to McDonald after
seeing Whitehaven in person this past Friday so clearly he feels at least “c”
is true. With top LB target Len’neth
Whitehead taking his OV to South Carolina this weekend after having been a UV
just two weeks before, he could be trending that way which would make Eason
(and then McDonald and French) that much more important. How soon they can get the Whitehaven Three to
Knoxville will be telling in terms of how serious this all is.
DEs Jasheen Davis
and Jimari Butler are pass rushers, and
that’s an area where the Vols very plainly need help. Davis is a Wake Forest commitment from Snellville,
GA with summer offers from the likes of Michigan and Penn State and has had a
great start to his senior season. It
remains to be seen how much reciprocal interest Davis will show, but he’s a
solid prospect at a position of need. Butler
is a very raw and inexperienced prospect who’s only played one season of football
but has great size at 6’5 with plus-wingspan and is rising up boards. The Vols were the first SEC school to offer
and it will be interesting to see who else follows.
OTs Jose Gonzalez
and James Pogoreic are two relatively
lightly recruited Tackle prospects with great size who the Vols have seen a lot
to like on their respective senior film. Gonzalez is 6’9 (!) and over 320
pounds, but right now only holds offers from P5 programs like Minnesota and
UCLA. Pogoreic is also very tall at 6’7
but very light at a listed 260 pounds, yet his offer list has exploded since
his early senior film got out with the Vols being joined by the likes of Stanford,
UNC, and UVA to recently offer him. Given
the caliber of institutions on that list it’s easy to see that academics are
extremely important to him, so if Tennessee truly wants to be a player in this
recruitment – and that might remain to be seen depending on how things look
with instate priority Chris Morris –
they’ll need to sell him on the Josh
Dobbs/Grant Williams/Josiah James plan.
ILB Sione
Fotu is an interesting looking prospect from Utah with offers from Utah and
Washington State. Notably, Fotu is planning
on taking a mission after high school, so given the Vols immediate needs at the
position and incredibly valuable scholarships with the state of the program’s
rebuild, I would be surprised to see the Vols go all in for Fotu.
As the calendar turns to October the Tennessee staff is being
opportunistic and strategic about who it offers and who it turns up the heat
on. The new offers are tiered by those
who already have really nice offer lists (Jones, the Whitehaven kids, Davis, Pogoreic)
and the rest who the Vols are getting out in front for. It goes without saying that turning things
around on the field this season is the most important factor in terms of
closing out the 2020 recruiting cycle, but the Vols doing the smart thing by
broadening the board and giving themselves more options to end up signing a
25-man class that’s necessary to move the program forward in terms of improving
the overall talent on the roster.