Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide. You can probably guess that it’s not good news, but we have dressed it up in pretty colors because it helps the medicine go down.
The short version, for those who like needles more than pharmacies, is that Tennessee has zero advantages on offense and what amounts to a tie in only one category on defense (with the rest decisively in the Tide’s favor). The Vols do actually have better rankings in special teams and penalties, though, so there’s that.
Details below.
Vols on offense
Well, this is no good at all. When the Vols have the ball, they are at a serious disadvantage in . . . everything. The biggest problem, of course, is that Tennessee’s Scoring Offense is in the Bottom 30, while Alabama’s Scoring Defense is in the Top 15. Woo. The Tide defense also has an appetite for interceptions that the Vols are all too willing to Door Dash directly to them. It’s going to be a long day for the Vols offense.
Vols on defense
Well, this is no good at all, either. Although Tennessee has its own healthy appetite for interceptions, Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a selfish, selfish man with the ball. Beyond that, Alabama’s much better on every down and in every category. Woo.
Special teams
We interrupt this downer to bring you good tidings: Tennessee has a better punter than Alabama. The Vols are also marginally better in most special teams categories. So, the gameplan is to brainstorm an innovative new strategy to play the entire game on special teams. I hope they got an early start on that.
Turnovers and penalties
Alabama commits more penalties than Tennessee does. Nah-na-na-na-na-na. Alabama’s better in the turnover game. Boo.
Tennessee’s defensive rankings improved, and special teams is still a strength for the Vols, after the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Offense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion
Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Passes Had Intercepted
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
I expected to see a little more positive movement on these, especially in Rushing Offense. Hmm.
Defense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss.
Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
Lots of positive movement here. The biggest mover was in Team Sacks, which went from No. 96 to No. 43. Passing Yards Allowed also improved a lot this week.
Special Teams
No red in this entire category since the BYU game. Net Punting recovered a bit this week, but it still has a ways to go to get its mojo back.
Turnovers and Penalties
Some improvement in penalties this week, and there was more action in turnovers Saturday, although it unfortunately occurred on both sides of the ledger.
Congratulations to PAVolFan, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 15-5 and 163 confidence points.
Here are the full results for this week:
Rank
Player
W-L
Points
Tiebreaker
1
jeremy.waldroop
16-4
184
13-52
2
rsbrooks25
18-2
179
14-51
3
Hjohn
15-5
178
14-45
4
corn from a jar
16-4
176
6-45**
4
claireb7tx
16-4
176
17-45
6
hounddog3
16-4
174
17-52
7
trdlgmsr
16-4
173
7-45**
7
waitwhereami
16-4
173
10-49
7
TennRebel
15-5
173
10-52
10
GeorgeMonkey
15-5
171
14-48**
10
Joel @ GRT
16-4
171
17-48
10
doritoscowboy
16-4
171
0-0
13
tbone
16-4
170
17-42**
13
memphispete
16-4
170
7-56
13
cnyvol
15-5
170
17-55
13
alanmar
15-5
170
24-49
17
wedflatrock
15-5
169
19-45
18
LuckyGuess
15-5
168
10-38**
18
joeb_1
14-6
168
12-44
20
Anaconda
15-5
167
26-33**
20
Sam
15-5
167
10-50
20
keepontruckin
15-5
167
16-45
20
Orange On Orange
15-5
167
20-42
24
Knottfair
14-6
166
13-48**
24
Crusher
14-6
166
14-52
24
PAVolFan
15-5
166
24-45
24
Raven17
15-5
166
17-56
28
Wilk21
15-5
165
10-49**
28
Jahiegel
14-6
165
14-48
30
Rossboro
16-4
164
0-50**
30
boro wvvol
14-6
164
10-45
30
birdjam
13-7
164
13-45
30
DinnerJacket
13-7
164
20-42
30
patmd
16-4
164
10-52
30
UTSeven
14-6
164
43-42
36
Hixson Vol1
14-6
163
14-45**
36
ga26engr
15-5
163
12-48
36
daetilus
14-6
163
17-48
39
Phonies
15-5
161
10-45**
39
Harley
15-5
161
17-48
41
ChuckieTVol
17-3
160
13-49
42
Displaced_Vol_Fan
14-6
158
12-47**
42
jfarrar90
12-8
158
13-48
42
Jayyyy
14-6
158
20-50
45
HUTCH
14-6
157
6-49**
45
mmmjtx
14-6
157
21-42
45
mariettavol
15-5
157
10-68
45
bluelite
13-7
157
7-0
49
ctull
13-7
154
10-35
50
C_hawkfan
15-5
153
13-44
51
rollervol
12-8
151
24-23
52
vols95
12-8
149
17-45
53
VillaVol
13-7
147
2-48**
53
ltvol99
15-5
147
10-41
53
TennVol95 in 3D!
11-9
147
28-24
56
rockytopinKy
15-5
146
0-0
57
Neil Neisner
15-5
144
10-52**
57
Bulldog 85
12-8
144
20-45
59
ddayvolsfan
14-6
135
10-52
60
Timbuktu126
12-8
131
11-17
61
PensacolaVolFan
12-8
123
0-50
62
Aaron Birkholz
0-20
122
-
62
mmb61
0-20
122
-
62
UTVols18
0-20
122
-
62
Salty Seth
0-20
122
-
62
Teri28
0-20
122
-
62
Will Shelton
0-20
122
-
62
tpi
0-20
122
-
62
aaron217
0-20
122
-
62
If you ain’t first you’re
0-20
122
-
62
tallahasseevol
0-20
122
-
62
dgibbs
0-20
122
-
62
waltsspac
0-20
122
-
62
Willewillm
0-20
122
-
62
Orange Swarm
0-20
122
-
62
Dmorton
0-20
122
-
62
RockyPopPicks
0-20
122
-
62
Jrstep
0-20
122
-
62
ed75
0-20
122
-
62
OriginalVol1814
0-20
122
-
62
BristVol
0-20
122
-
62
orange_devil87
0-20
122
-
62
VFL49er
0-20
122
-
62
ddutcher
0-20
122
-
62
BZACHARY
0-20
122
-
62
Caban Greys
0-20
122
-
62
cactusvol
0-20
122
-
62
Techboy
0-20
122
-
62
JLPasour
0-20
122
-
PAVolFan also sneaks into the lead for the season with a record of 98-42 and 1133 confidence points. There are four players within two points of each other at the top, though, so it’s a close race.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
My nutshell assessment of the Vols after the Mississippi State game is that the team is indeed improving, and I think they’re doing it in all of the right places and all of the right ways. With Maurer going out early and Guarantano taking over against the Bulldogs, it does seem to me that the problems aren’t necessarily personnel but, as some of us suspected, just a matter of navigating the learning curve of two new coordinators and a bunch of new players at key positions. I still think that elite teams are going to make the Vols look worse than they really are, but I am feeling much more comfortable against most the second-tier of the SEC East.
Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking good but still has Florida and Georgia looming, and South Carolina looks dangerous. But Kentucky and Vanderbilt look more and more beatable. UAB looks like maybe they deserve to be in the same group as the Wildcats and the Commodores, though, rather than set apart in the feel-good range.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.4, up, but by only slightly more than half a game from last week.
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
After Week 7: 4.4
Details: Alabama remains at 5%. Missouri moves from 25% to 35%, and South Carolina joins them there. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB all move to 55%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt from 50% and UAB from 75%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-4 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 4-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
It’s not accurate to say that the Vols lost to a good team when they lost to Georgia State. But it’s also no longer accurate to say that the Vols lost to a 2-10 Sun Belt team. The Panthers are now 4-2 and 2nd in the Sun Belt East, and they’re better this year than they were last year. They still shouldn’t have beaten the Vols in Neyland Stadium, but maybe they’re actually a little better than we thought.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-4 (0-0)
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
The Cougars led 23-14 heading into the fourth quarter and lost 27-23 to South Florida. They’ve now lost their last three games, the last two of them to unranked teams.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Off this week.
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Played two Top 10 teams in the last two weeks. Beat one at home, lost to the other on the road. LSU looks like the best of the three, but Florida’s still a Top 10 team in my book.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
I didn’t see anything but the end of regulation and the two overtimes in this one, but I will say that Georgia had their butts saved at least a couple of times before finally tempting fate a time too many. Credit to the Gamecocks, and this one has to make Vols fans feel worse both about the loss to Georgia and the upcoming game against South Carolina, but it also has a sort of outlier feel to it.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 5th in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
The Vols’ future opponents
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
Tua’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 27:1. My takeaway from that is that we can get an interception next week as long as we give up 27 touchdowns first.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 3-3 (2-2), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
Just beat the No. 3 team in the nation. Currently fourth in the SEC East with two conference losses. On their third quarterback this season already. Okay, then.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
I’m sounding the alarm on the UAB Blazers, although nobody’s going to pay any attention. Yes, that’s a nobody schedule, but it’s also a lot of Ws.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 3-3 (1-3), 6th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
Some will find it funny that the Arkansas Razorbacks just got beat by a Kentucky team starting a wide receiver at quarterback. For some reason, I don’t think that’s funny at all. Not one single bit.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-1 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Don’t look now, but the Missouri Tigers are first in the SEC East. Those back-to-back games against Georgia and Florida in mid-November loom.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-5 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
Oh, my. Halfway through the season and one win, against Northern Illinois. (No, I wouldn’t have written this had the Vols lost to Mississippi State. Why do you ask?)
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
The win itself doesn’t feel like a total surprise, though definitely a relief. The Vols were +5 at the closing line today, and we’re in no position to be ungrateful, so well done by Jeremy Pruitt and his staff in getting their third SEC win as an underdog.
Tennessee coming away with the win doesn’t feel like the headline. But the way it happened, on both sides of the ball, is breaking news.
Seven sacks against an SEC foe? First time this decade. Only 14 passing attempts? Fewest against any opponent this decade.
Selling out to stop the SEC’s leading rusher on one side of the ball, and suddenly playing without your freshman spark at quarterback on the other side? The Vols had no business finding much success impacting MSU’s passing game, or running the ball when everyone knew it was coming.
And yet.
The Vols had 190 rushing yards on 44 carries; 4.3 yards per carry is the third-best mark under Pruitt in SEC play, behind the Kentucky win last year and the Vanderbilt game when the Vols got only 14 carries in falling behind. On this game’s most crucial drive in the fourth quarter, with the Vols facing their worst field position of the day and awaiting diagnosis on a potential case of the oh-no’s in Neyland Stadium, Ty Chandler immediately ran for 6 and 15 yards, then Tim Jordan for 7 and 12. When everyone knew it was coming and the Vols had to have it anyway, they got it. Easily.
Darrell Taylor had two sacks to bring his career total to 14. Bryce Thompson got one blitzing from the secondary. The other four: the first career sacks at Tennessee for Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, and Aubrey Solomon. Any one of those guys getting a sack today would’ve felt like a bonus coming in. All of them cashed in.
Other than Texas A&M – only four more years until they come to Knoxville for the first time! – we probably have less of a relationship to Mississippi State than any other team in the SEC. That makes it harder to get a feel for their program, expectations, etc. But I’d say one’s opinion on the trajectories of these two programs has shifted in the last couple weeks:
Because the Bulldogs lost at home to Kansas State, were obliterated by Auburn, had a bye week, and then turned in this performance today? There’s a part of me that’s wondering if Mississippi State is, in fact, real bad, despite being the favorite and finishing eighth in SP+ last season.
Either way, today was real good for Tennessee.
Bama’s next; we know the drill there. The ask on the other side will be four wins in five games against South Carolina, UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and Vanderbilt. After today, we’re firmly in not-probable-but-possible range.
The Vols and Pruitt are still playing the long game. That exercise looked like giant question marks at quarterback and on both sides of the line not at all long ago, the three worst places for uncertainty in the SEC. Midway through the season, the Vols are still 2-4 with costly losses on the front end. But those most important questions, at least for today (and a little bit of last week), look a little more answerable. We’ll see what happens with Brian Maurer’s concussion protocol; credit Jarrett Guarantano for making every throw he needed to make today. Credit Tennessee’s offensive line for not needing those throws. And credit the defensive line – and so many names therein – for going from an absolute liability in game one to holding the SEC’s leading rusher to 11 carries for 13 yards and seven sacks. Seven!
Any win was a good win today; in isolation, this one deserves all the singing and celebration after what we’ve been through. The schedule presents possibility.
But the biggest news of all today wasn’t the what, but the how. Are the young Vols getting significantly better at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line? For present and future, that’s the biggest news of all.
It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols hosting the Mississippi State Bulldogs today at Neyland Stadium. Winning this game as a 6.5-point underdog could change the narrative of the season by turning a handful of other 60/40 games into 50/50 games or better. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-Mississippi State game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.
When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?
Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:
The Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans doesn’t just include watching the Vols take on the Bulldogs. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
Mississippi State
Tennessee
12:00 PM
SECN
Live
Go Vols
South Carolina
No. 3 Georgia
12:00 PM
ESPN
DVR
Future and prior opponents
No. 6 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas
12:00 PM
FOX
Top 15 matchup
AFTERNOON
No. 1 Alabama
No. 24 Texas A&M
3:30 PM
CBS
Live
Future opponent, Top 25 matchup
UNLV
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
DVR, Check-in
Future opponent
UAB
UTSA
6:00 PM
ESPN+
DVR, Check-in
Future opponent
EVENING
No. 7 Florida
No. 5 LSU
8:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Former opponent, Top 10 matchup
Ole Miss
Missouri
7:00 PM
ESPN2
DVR
Future opponent
And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:
Date
Away
Home
Time
TV
10/9/19
Appalachian State
Louisiana
8:00 PM
ESPN2
10/10/19
Syracuse
NC State
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/10/19
UL Monroe
Texas State
9:15 PM
ESPNU
10/11/19
Virginia
Miami
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/11/19
Colorado State
New Mexico
8:00 PM
CBSSN
10/11/19
Colorado
Oregon
10:00 PM
FS1
10/12/19
South Carolina
Georgia
12:00 PM
ESPN
10/12/19
Oklahoma
Texas
12:00 PM
FOX
10/12/19
Michigan
Illinois
12:00 PM
ABC
10/12/19
Memphis
Temple
12:00 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
Maryland
Purdue
12:00 PM
10/12/19
Mississippi State
Tennessee
12:00 PM
SECN
10/12/19
Rutgers
Indiana
12:00 PM
10/12/19
Miami (OH)
Western Michigan
12:00 PM
ESPNU
10/12/19
Toledo
Bowling Green
12:00 PM
10/12/19
Georgia Tech
Duke
12:30 PM
ACCNX
10/12/19
Ball State
Eastern Michigan
2:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
Old Dominion
Marshall
2:30 PM
10/12/19
New Mexico State
Central Michigan
3:00 PM
ESPN3
10/12/19
Alabama
Texas A&M
3:30 PM
CBS
10/12/19
Florida State
Clemson
3:30 PM
ABC
10/12/19
Michigan State
Wisconsin
3:30 PM
10/12/19
Washington State
Arizona State
3:30 PM
PAC12
10/12/19
Cincinnati
Houston
3:30 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
BYU
South Florida
3:30 PM
CBSSN
10/12/19
Kent State
Akron
3:30 PM
ESPN3
10/12/19
Northern Illinois
Ohio
3:30 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
UConn
Tulane
3:45 PM
ESPNU
10/12/19
Texas Tech
Baylor
4:00 PM
10/12/19
San Jose State
Nevada
4:00 PM
10/12/19
UNLV
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
10/12/19
Iowa State
West Virginia
4:00 PM
ESPN
10/12/19
Rhode Island
Virginia Tech
4:00 PM
ACCN
10/12/19
Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic
4:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
Georgia State
Coastal Carolina
5:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
UAB
UTSA
6:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
Army
Western Kentucky
7:00 PM
10/12/19
UMass
Louisiana Tech
7:00 PM
ESPN3
10/12/19
North Texas
Southern Mississippi
7:00 PM
10/12/19
Fresno State
Air Force
7:00 PM
CBSSN
10/12/19
Ole Miss
Missouri
7:00 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
Charlotte
Florida International
7:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
USC
Notre Dame
7:30 PM
NBC
10/12/19
Penn State
Iowa
7:30 PM
ABC
10/12/19
Louisville
Wake Forest
7:30 PM
ACCN
10/12/19
Nebraska
Minnesota
7:30 PM
10/12/19
Arkansas
Kentucky
7:30 PM
SECN
10/12/19
Navy
Tulsa
7:30 PM
ESPNU
10/12/19
Florida
LSU
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/12/19
Utah
Oregon State
8:00 PM
PAC12
10/12/19
Hawai'i
Boise State
10:15 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
Wyoming
San Diego State
10:30 PM
CBSSN
10/12/19
Washington
Arizona
11:00 PM
GRT games and contests
While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.
At the midway point of the season, we’ve finally got a game where the match-up itself is the most interesting story.
Not many of us, including me, took the time to preview Georgia State. Bad idea, it turns out, but we made up for it in word count the next week. Then the end of the BYU game ensured Tennessee and Jeremy Pruitt would be the lead story through Chattanooga and into Gainesville, where the Vols lost 34-3 and it seemed like there was no point in talking about how to beat Georgia.
And there probably wasn’t; the quarterback change got our rightful attention. But with Brian Maurer passing his first test against #3 Georgia, “bowl” has re-entered the vocabulary. It’s still probably a conversation for after a win like this one – I’ve got the Vols at 4.25 in expected win total – but Mississippi State comes to Knoxville at 3-2, not the 5-0 some of us thought possible. One of those losses was at home to Kansas State, the other a 56-23 beat down at Auburn in which they trailed 49-9 90 seconds into the third quarter.
Mississippi State is currently favored at -6.5, making this just the second time in the first six games the line is single digits (BYU +3). Something similar happened last season: the Vols were +10 against West Virginia and +3.5 against Florida, then didn’t see single digits again until +9 at South Carolina.
Last season Mississippi State finished 8-5 but 8th in SP+, due to one of the most difficult schedules in college football after catching Kentucky and Florida from the SEC East. They beat Texas A&M 28-13 then rolled Ole Miss 35-3 in Oxford to end the regular season on a high note, though a loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl soured that a bit. As is the case with the entire field, Year Two has not been as magical for Joe Moorehead.
With all eyes on Maurer, what have opposing quarterbacks done against the Bulldogs this season?
Team
Cmp
Att
Pct
Yds
YPA
TD
INT
Result
Louisiana
24
39
61.54%
267
6.85
1
1
L 38-28
So. Miss.
18
26
69.23%
234
9.00
2
2
L 38-15
Kansas St.
10
18
55.56%
123
6.83
1
0
W 31-24
Kentucky
15
41
36.59%
232
5.66
0
1
L 28-13
Auburn
16
21
76.19%
335
15.95
2
0
W 56-23
Obviously, Bo Nix skews the totals a bit. But so does Sawyer Smith on the other end of the spectrum. On the year, Mississippi State’s 8.1 YPA allowed ranks 102nd in college football. The Bulldogs also have only nine sacks in five games, three coming against Smith and Kentucky.
What’s been most helpful to Mississippi State’s defense: getting off the field on third down, where opponents are converting just 31.4%, 23rd best for a defense. The Vols went 5-of-12 against Georgia; Guarantano was 1-of-3 in late action, though one of those plays was a 3rd-and-20 after a Maurer sack, so the runs go to him.
The Bulldogs have also turned away the opposition five times in 20 red zone appearances, an impressive 75% scoring percentage allowed. But 13 of those 15 scores were touchdowns, making Bob Shoop’s defense feast or famine in the red zone.
Will this be a breath of fresh air for Tennessee’s freshman quarterback after facing Florida and Georgia? The Vols’ young offensive line is banged up, and Mississippi State had last week off. It’s tough to pick Tennessee when the Vols have only beaten Chattanooga. But if you’re looking for a real live opportunity – on a number of levels – this is it.
