Bye Week Big Board – Offense

With the Vols on their second of two bye weeks of the season, the Tennessee staff will not only take the opportunity to rest its team and develop its younger players but also reassess its 2020 recruiting board.  They’ll likely hit the road and touch base with prospects while at the same time likely handing out at least a handful of new offers.  Below we’ll take a look at the Offensive Board by position and evaluate where these prospects sit on Tennessee’s board as well as their reciprocal interest.  As a reminder, the Vols currently have 18 commitments, giving them 7-8 spots to work with and multiple needs to address:

QB

Current commitment: Harrison Bailey

Prospect:

Jimmy Holiday

Holiday is a TCU commitment from Madison, MS who has shined over the course of his senior season.  We featured him in an article talking about the need for playmakers in early October, after which Holiday took an official visit to Tennessee in October for the UGA weekend.  While it’s unclear whether or not TCU is recruiting him as a QB or as more of an ATH (read: WR), what’s not in doubt is the fact that Holiday considers himself a QB.  The Vols have told him that they will absolutely give him his first opportunity at QB, which seems to have resonated with him.  Bottom line is he’s ~6’0 and 180 pounds, runs a sub-4.4 40 and notched the 7th best overall SPARQ score at a Nike Regional event over the summer that included over 300 other prospects – and ALL of that translates on film. Whether or not the Vols need another QB in this class is up for debate, which is why the fact that Holiday projects as an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands no matter where he ends up a more valuable prospect for Tennessee.  Holiday took his OV to TCU over the summer, so the Horned Frogs won’t get a chance to host him in that manner again.  He’s been committed to them for a while now, so flipping him won’t be particularly easy, but the chance to play QB and play in the SEC could be enough if the Vols decide to push.

RB

Current commitment: Tee Hodge

Prospects*:

Zaquandre White (JUCO)

Ty Jordan – Texas commitment

John Gentry – Arkansas decommitment

Don Ragsdale (JUCO) – USM commitment

Like QB, one could make the case that Tennessee doesn’t need another RB in this class.  All three of Tennessee’s RBs who have played this season – Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, and Eric Gray – have eligibility remaining, and even the one senior in the RB room in Carlin Fils-aime could potentially redshirt and return.  Hodge’s senior season has been plagued by injury and he hasn’t put up monster stats, but there is a reason that schools like Wisconsin and Oregon wanted him up to when he committed to the Vols over the summer, and in the Badger’s case continue to try.  Hodge looks like a solid and capable SEC RB, something that’s not to be understated.  And assuming all of the above return in 2020 that would give Tennessee four (or five, pending CFA) RBs.  It would also set them up to need at least two in 2021, which in theory is precarious.  However, at the same time that would give the Vols a tremendous sales pitch.  Because for all of the great things that Jeremy Pruitt has done in terms of upgrading the talent and depth in the program, one sore spot he’s so far failed to correct is Tennessee’s decade-long inability to land a bigtime, no-brainer, blue-chip 5-star RB.  While Eric Gray was a highly regarded and coveted prospect, he’s just not on the level of the kind of RBs that the likes of Alabama and Georgia have been adding literally year after year, sometimes landing more than one in a class.  There are still more than a few things that Tennessee needs to do to reach the next level of truly going toe-to-toe with the Tide and Bulldogs as well as competing for championships, but having that kind of gamebreaking RB is one of them.  That has to be considered an absolute MUST for 2021.

As for the RBs on the board should the Vols choose to add one more, it’s an interesting group.  Given the above, on the one hand it makes sense to add a JUCO who would bring maturity and experience to a potentially shorthanded group. On the other hand, if the concern is more about who is around past 2020 then a JUCO makes less sense.  Either way, White is seemingly the most likely to make an instant impact, as he has the strongest pedigree as a former 4-star FSU signee and has had a nice sophomore year in Junior College.  The Vols have been on him for a while but so far he hasn’t been to campus since Pruitt was the coach, although it should be noted that he’s not been anywhere else either this year.  Jordan is the other one of the group who the Vols have been recruiting for some time, and he took an OV to Knoxville this summer before ultimately deciding to stay close to home, at least partially due to an illness in the family.  With the Vols adding a commitment from his high school teammate OL Kyree Miller, however, Volquest.com has reported that Tennessee has reengaged at least a little with Jordan.  Ultimately it seems hard to see the small but very dynamic back opting to leave the state, but like with most if not all prospects Tennessee covets they likely won’t stop trying.  The last three RBs on the board are all very new offers – with Tennessee tendering each of them in the past week or so.  Gentry is another Lone Star state standout, and Arkansas’s firing of Coach Chad Morris caused him to back off of his pledge to the Razorbacks.  Gentry seems like a Utah lean and as of this writing Amos appears to be ready to jump in the sinking ship that is Gamecock football, so those two could be off the board before Tennessee has time to gain any footing. Finally, Ragsdale, the newest offeree, is the second JUCO on the board and is currently committed to homestate Southern Mississippi.  He’s a big, powerful back whose film shows some impressive shiftiness but a lack of top end speed – think a bigger Tim Jordan while at the same time thinking of your prototypical Southern Miss RB. 

*It is very important to note that Tennessee is recruiting both Desmond Tisdol and Len’neth Whitehead as Athletes who could play both RB or ILB.  Both of them are high level prospects and both could possibly be considered Vol leans at this point (with the South Carolina implosion moving the needle for both).  That said, not only is there still a need for another ILB in the class, but I have a hard time seeing Jeremy Pruitt put bigtime players on offense when he has a choice of keeping them on the defensive side.  Therefore for these purposes neither prospect is being counted on the RB board

WR

Current commitments: Jalin Hyatt, Jimmy Calloway, and Darion Williamson

Prospect(s):

Rakim Jarrett (LSU commitment)

Thaiu Jones-Bell (Alabama commitment)

Dee Beckwith

With the impending graduation of two potential All-SEC players in Jajuan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, Tennessee’s passing game is inevitably going to look different in 2020.  Whether it ends up worse is TBD, as the move of UGA transfer Deangelo Gibbs from DB to WR and the decision to redshirt the dependable soon-to-be 5th year senior Brandon Johnson will give the Vols some veterans that they didn’t necessarily think would be there when the season started.  At the same time, freshmen Cedric Tillman, Ramel Keyton and Jerrod Means have gotten some real playing time this season, giving the Vols some more experience as well.  And of course Josh Palmer will be in line to take over as the headliner of the group.  Finally, in the second year of OC Jim Chaney’s system there could be more involvement in the passing game for both the TEs (especially if they add the stud prospect below) and RBs. 

That said, Tennessee needs an infusion of both quantity and quality at the position in the 2020 class, and although they have three commitments they could stand to add at least one more and are recruiting as such.  Even more because Calloway is still looking to take visits – to at least OU if not also UK and maybe homestate UGA if they end up offering – and Williamson has visited Memphis this season and also is less likely to be a Year 1 contributor given his inseason knee injury.  Tennessee was thought to be the leader for Jarrett in the spring until he made a surprising commitment to LSU (no one knew at that point their offense would resemble the Greatest Show on Turf), and even a summer official visit to Knoxville wasn’t enough to flip him.  The Vols have continued to stay in touch and so far Jarrett hasn’t told them a final “no,” while at the same time taking a late October OV to Alabama, but that one looks like an uphill battle.  Similarly, Tennessee was 1B to Alabama’s 1A when Jones-Bell committed over the summer, with some actually thinking that he was going to announce for the Vols.  An unofficial visit to Knoxville for the South Carolina game was a great sign for Tennessee – now it will be about getting an official visit for the December signee.  He’s talked about taking his OV to Bama the second to last weekend before the early signing period and then to Knoxville for the last weekend; in theory that sets up well for the Vols but one can be sure that Alabama will do everything it can to shut that down when he’s in Tuscaloosa.  Volquest.com has hinted that Jones-Bell’s mother isn’t a big fan of the Tide and she did accompany him on that recent trip to Knoxville.  Ultimately it could prove too difficult to flip a Bama commitment who the Tide is all in on, but the Vols are very much in the thick of it for an instant impact pass catcher.  The final player on the board is arguably the most interesting, as Beckwith is not only a multi-positional player on the gridiron but also a high level basketball player.  He’s now been offered the chance to play both sports at Tennessee to go with his other top schools like Florida (arguably Tennessee’s top competition), Ole Miss and instate Auburn.  At 6-5, 215 pounds he shows uncanny agility playing part-time  QB for his high school team while also WR/TE and even RB.  He’d be a Swiss Army Knife kind of player for Chaney, capable of playing Wildcat QB (and passing, too) while also both running and catching the football.  Beckwith is probably the most likely of the three and the Vols would do well to add him to the collection of WR talent they already have committed.  Should they combine him with either of Jarrett or Jones-Bell the Vols would have hit a grand slam at the position in the timeliest manner possible.

TE

Current commitments: None

Prospect: Darnell Washington

We’ve made the argument that Washington is the only TE the Vols should attempt sign.  Since then he’s made an unofficial visit to Knoxville for the UAB game, making it close to a half dozen visits to Tennessee since last year.  He also took his Alabama official visit this past weekend, which by all accounts helped the Tide get back into the race.  Georgia is still considered one of his top choices, and he’s taking an OV to Oregon this coming weekend.  That will leave him one more OV, which the Vols will be fighting Miami for.  Indications from 247 Sports are that he’s more likely to visit Knoxville than Coral Gables, and if he does so you really have to like Tennessee’s chances here.  The Vols have had uber-recruiter Brian Niedermeyer on Washington from the get-go, and will have gotten not only Washington’s last official visit but two of his final four campus visits overall and the chance to make the final impression.  Washington is a certain Day 1 starter at Tennessee and would instantly help the Vols recoup some of what will be lost in the passing game with the graduation of Jennings and Callaway. em

Tennessee vs Murray State Preview

The Racers – home of one of my favorite college sports logos – are more than the school of Ja Morant. The number two pick in June’s draft is averaging 18.6 points with the Memphis Grizzlies; Murray State went 26-6 and 28-5 in his two seasons, knocking off Marquette in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

Murray State has long been one of the best stepping stones for coaches. This is Matt McMahon’s fifth year; before him it was Steve Prohm (to Iowa State), Billy Kennedy (to Texas A&M), and Mick Cronin (to Cincinnati). It’s a program accustomed to winning, and though Morant is gone, I wouldn’t take them lightly. Guard Tevin Brown led the way with 17 points in their 20-point win over Southern (349th in KenPom) in the opener, on par with Tennessee’s level of competition against UNC Asheville. And 6’10” K.J. Williams had 15 points and 11 rebounds.

Brown was a high-percentage shooter last season; Morant’s play led to lots of open shots for other guys. That was even more true for Williams, who shot 71% inside the arc, eighth nationally in two point field goal percentage. Tennessee’s defense will have an opportunity to frustrate them more than they’re used to.

It was one game, but a couple of things jumped out for the Vols statistically. Tennessee grabbed 17 offensive rebounds – Pons with five, Fulkerson and Nkamhoua with four each – for a 48.6% offensive rebounding percentage. The Vols were a Top 75 team in that category the last two years; just one game, but it was nice to see the undersized Vols continue to get in the mix there.

If you’re bothered by UNC Asheville being remotely competitive with the Vols, consider a small tip of the cap to them for making tough shots. The Bulldogs had 24 made shots but had only four assists, an excellent team defensive effort from the Vols. There will be nights when Tennessee’s individual defensive efforts – staying in front of guys off the dribble, undersized post match-ups – are an issue. But for a team with so many new pieces and changing roles, Tennessee’s team defense was really good against UNC Asheville.

Murray State is an excellent step up on the way to Toronto, where Washington awaits on Saturday (excellent scheduling for a bye week!). The Huskies beat Baylor in the opener and feature Kentucky transfer Quade Green, among others. KenPom likes the Vols to beat the Racers by 13 and calls the Huskies a toss-up. Things will get real in a hurry; Murray State is a great test to see if these Vols are up to speed.

7:00 PM Wait, 9:00 PM? What? On the actual SEC Network. Go Vols.

College Football TV Schedule: Week 12

The Vols are off this week, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing for Tennessee fans to watch. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Western Michigan Ohio 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football
Eastern Michigan Akron 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football

Do you care about certain geographical areas of Michigan and/or cities in Ohio? No? Do you like a little football better than no football? Yes? Okay, then.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Bowling Green Miami (OH) 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football
Northern Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Do the good people of Ohio not believe in football on Saturdays anymore?

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Buffalo Kent State 7:00 PM CBSSN Channel Hop It's football
North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop It's football

Now that we’ve exhausted all of The Other Ohio state schools, we can get to some Power 5 teams. Well, two of them anyway.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Louisiana Tech Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN Channel Hop It's football
Fresno State San Diego State 9:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Never mind. But tomorrow’s Gameday!

Gameday, November 16, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE DVR / Check in Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols

Vols fans can get a look at Tennessee’s next opponent at noon on Saturday when the Missouri Tigers host the Florida Gators on CBS. Immediately following that one, No. 6 Georgia and No. 11 Auburn face off on the same channel, although Tennessee’s final opponent — Vanderbilt — is on at the same time on the SEC Network, so DVR that one for later reference.

The evening slot features No. 9 Oklahoma and No. 12 Baylor at 7:30 on ABC.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
11/12/19 Western Michigan Ohio 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/12/19 Eastern Michigan Akron 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/13/19 Bowling Green Miami (OH) 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/13/19 Northern Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/14/19 Buffalo Kent State 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/14/19 North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ESPN
11/15/19 Louisiana Tech Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/15/19 Fresno State San Diego State 9:30 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 #3 Alabama Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN
11/16/19 Indiana #4 Penn State 12:00 PM ABC
11/16/19 #10 Florida Missouri 12:00 PM CBS
11/16/19 #13 Wisconsin Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
11/16/19 Michigan State #14 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 Kansas #23 Oklahoma State 12:00 PM FS1
11/16/19 UMass Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/16/19 TCU Texas Tech 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 VMI Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Alabama State Florida State 12:00 PM ACCNX
11/16/19 Tulane Temple 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 UTEP UAB 1:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 #24 Navy #15 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/16/19 Idaho State BYU 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 Coastal Carolina Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 UL Monroe Georgia Southern 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Troy Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 #1 Ohio State Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
11/16/19 #19 Wake Forest #5 Clemson 3:30 PM ABC
11/16/19 #6 Georgia #11 Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
11/16/19 West Virginia #16 Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/16/19 #21 Memphis Houston 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 Central Michigan Ball State 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNX
11/16/19 Kentucky Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SECN
11/16/19 Texas Iowa State 3:30 PM FS1
11/16/19 #17 Minnesota #18 Iowa 4:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 Syracuse Duke 4:00 PM ACCN
11/16/19 Incarnate Word New Mexico State 4:00 PM
11/16/19 Wyoming Utah State 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 Hawai'i UNLV 4:00 PM
11/16/19 Rice Middle Tennessee 4:30 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Stanford Washington State 4:30 PM PAC12
11/16/19 Louisiana South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Southern Mississippi UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 #2 LSU Ole Miss 7:00 PM ESPN
11/16/19 #20 Cincinnati South Florida 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Air Force Colorado State 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 #9 Oklahoma #12 Baylor 7:30 PM ABC
11/16/19 South Carolina Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN
11/16/19 Louisville NC State 7:30 PM ACCN
11/16/19 Arizona State Oregon State 7:30 PM FS1
11/16/19 Appalachian State Georgia State 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 UCLA #8 Utah 8:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 New Mexico #22 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 Arizona #7 Oregon 10:30 PM ESPN
11/16/19 USC California 11:00 PM FS1

Early Bye Week Recruiting Musings

The more I think about the pickup of OLB Jimari Butler the more I love it.  Yes, the loss of BJ Ojulari was a big blow to the class, particularly given Tennessee’s need for pass rushers both immediately in 2020 and when looking out vis a vis the current roster.  And yes, Butler is raw and relatively underrecruited (for now).  But like we’ve noted, Pruitt has a pretty darn good track record for talent evaluation, which should make Vol fans feel good about just about anyone Tennessee chooses to take.  Perhaps more importantly, when specifically looking at Butler what jumps out is his pure athleticism to go with his size.  Why was Roman Harrison relatively underrecruited last season as a future pass rusher?  Because he’s 6’1.  Why has Quarvaris Crouch, a bigtime player who’s a cornerstone of the future somewhere on defense, failed to get home to the QB multiple times despite getting good push on Offensive Tackles?  Because he’s 6’1.  And why is Darrell Taylor a likely 2nd round pick at worst despite playing during a pretty darn bad stretch of Tennessee football?  Because he’s 6’5 and combines that length with top end athleticism to actually sack the QB.  Butler is also 6’5, and used that length as well as his elite athletic ability – he was clocked at a 4.6 40 over the summer and you can see his ability to bend around the corner on film – to get 18 sacks just this season, his first playing football since 7th grade. That length is something that Tennessee just doesn’t have much of at the OLB/Rush DE spot, and it makes a huge difference.  I’m not sure he’s a 2020 contributor simply given his lack of experience – though I wouldn’t put it past Pruitt and Co. to get him there – but mark me down as saying Butler is a future star and will likely see a bigtime ratings boost before all is said and done. 

With Tennessee on a bit of a roll it’s obvious that things are stable in Knoxville.  And not only does winning help in general, but that stability, and the erasure of any talk about Pruitt’s job security that goes with it, is huge.  Combine that with the recent firings at FSU and Arkansas as well as real instability at places like South Carolina (likely to finish 4-8) and potentially other SEC programs like Mississippi State and Tennessee’s program has a real advantage.  That’s of course even before you get to the carousel that will come from FSU and Arkansas hiring coaches themselves and whatever other coaching changes are made at programs nationally. 

To that point, the opinion here is that Tennessee’s staff should resist the urge to go poach immediately from those programs and instead be picky and stick with its philosophy of only going after bigtime players (as defined both by recruiting services and more importantly the staff itself).  Right now there are limited spots left in the class and realistically many more options out there to fill them.  There will also inevitably be new players who come on the board, either because of coaching changes or because Tennessee sees something they like from senior/JUCO film or even in a postseason all star game and decides to make a move.  And given the above, there are going to be players that the Vols missed out on earlier in the process who are newly available and re-engaging with the Tennessee staff.  Guys like Arkansas DE commitments Blayne Toll and RB John Gentry, FSU OLB commitment Morven Joseph, Mississippi State OLB commitment Jevon Banks, or even a guy like RB/LB Len’neth Whitehead who was a heavy Gamecock lean but now may be feeling uneasy about what’s going on in Columbia.  Further, should Tennessee win out to get to 7-5 and play in a January bowl like the Taxslayer in Jacksonville, they very well may be able to regain traction with 5-stars like ILB Noah Sewell, OLB Sa’vell Smalls (a Washington commitment), and WR Rakim Jarrett (a LSU commitment) and keep momentum going with 5-star TE Darnell Washington and Alabama WR commitment Thaiu Jones-Bell.  As Pruitt says, it’s about the players you get, not the ones you don’t get.  But if Tennessee continues to win AND the staff plays its cards right (i.e., not just taking the first couple of guys looking for a lifeboat), the Vols could find themselves with the opportunity to actually choose from a host of really good players.  Having to make tough decisions is by definition difficult, but it’s always a better position to be in than being desperate and trying to fill spots. 

There are also positional needs to consider – the Vols need playmakers on offense, they need at least one more pass rusher, and they need at least one more LB.  One could also argue they need another DB if possible.  No matter what, with only 25 spots (although it’s worth wondering whether Tennessee got Melvin McBride’s 2019 initial counter back due to his medical condition and can sign 26) Tennessee will not be able to get exactly where it needs to be in terms of talent and depth with just the 2020 class, even if the class does move the program significantly forward in that regard.  It could come down to Best Player Available down the stretch, where Tennessee chooses to go with “another” player at a position that seemingly has been filled simply because he’s a significantly better football player than the best available player at a position of “need” in the class.  For example, would Tennessee take both Whitehead and ILB/RB Desmond Tisdol?  Would they take all of DL Tyler Baron, Octavius Oxendine, Omari Thomas and then a guy like Reginald Perry?  What if Jay Hardy comes to his senses and wants (back) in?  Would they take all offensive playmakers Jones-Bell, JUCO RB Zaquandre White, and ATHs Dee Beckwith and Jimmy Holiday?  Would they add a 5th OL if it’s Chris Morris?  Again, potentially good problems to have to solve for, and I would wholeheartedly support the “BPA” decision especially if it comes on the backs of remaining patient.

Read: All the best from the beautiful disaster at Kentucky

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Guarantano again rescues Vols out of the bullpen, via 247Sports
  2. Everything Jeremy Pruitt said after 17-13 win at Kentucky, via 247Sports
  3. Daniel Bituli beaming with pride after willing Vols to win, via 247Sports
  4. Vols report card: Kentucky, via 247Sports
  5. Game Balls: Tennessee 17, Kentucky 13, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Kentucky

Now on a four-game win streak, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense, Passes Had Intercepted, Red Zone Offense, Total Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing

Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense

Scoring Offense and Rushing Offense have been flirting with the Bottom 30 for weeks, and they have now stepped over the ledge into darkness. First Downs Offense and Completion Percentage are still resisting the gravity of the abyss, for now. Basically, the win streak is nice, but everything except Passing Yards per Completion still needs to get better on offense.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes Intercepted, 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense, Passing Yards Allowed

Needs attention: Same as last week — First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards Allowed

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

Any improvement here is probably due to playing a team that can’t or doesn’t throw the ball. But still, green is good on these things, and the green is growing.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Blocked Punts, Kickoff Return Defense, Punt Returns, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Nothing’s in the Bottom 30 here, but Net Punting and Kickoff Returns are the areas that can be improved.

I wouldn’t get too concerned about the change in Blocked Kicks and Punts Allowed. When a difference of “1” can result in a drop to 43 and 84, it’s not worth getting worked up about.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Turnovers Gained

Needs attention: Turnovers Lost

Same story here as last week: Penalties can be improved, although you want to make sure you don’t do so at the cost of losing your aggression. And on turnovers, the defense is doing fine, but the offense is still too generous.

Tennessee 17 Kentucky 13: We’re Close

It felt like we were due a close game. We got one. Then Tennessee did a bunch of things you can’t do to win close games: almost twice as many penalty yards, dropped a snap on a punt, fumbled in their own territory in the final ten minutes, etc. The Vols felt like they were in control most of the night against BYU and lost. Kentucky, from a 17-play opening drive, felt like they were in control most of the night.

Those 17 plays were the first of 71 for Kentucky. Tennessee ran 46, leaving them at 621 on the year, the fewest for any team that’s played 10 games this season (stats via SportSource Analytics). That part hasn’t changed from last season, when the Vols ran fewer plays than any team in college football.

Beating Kentucky, as it turns out, hasn’t changed either.

The how was much, much different. Kentucky rolled into Knoxville last season ranked 12th, and rolled back up I-75 on the wrong end of a beat down: the Vols averaged 6.86 yards per play and held Kentucky to 3.59, a difference of 3.27 representing the biggest gap between Tennessee and a power five foe since Georgia in 2009.

Different team, different venue, much closer game. But in the end, the Vols are back at the same result: 5-5, two games to play. Last season those five wins came via a pair of ranked upsets, but the year ended with a pair of crushing defeats. This time the five wins have come via Chattanooga and a hot streak: the Vols have now covered the spread five weeks in a row for only the second time since 1998.

That list, via the closing lines at covers.com:

  • 2019: Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky and counting…
  • 2010: Tyler Bray’s emergence in the last five games of the regular season
  • 1998: The first five games (and just missed the first seven, failing to cover against Alabama by a single point; the 98 Vols ultimately went 9-4 against the spread)
  • 1992: The first five games before losing straight up to Arkansas as a 22-point favorite
  • 1990: Possible asterisk here, as covers.com has no line for the 55-7 win over Pacific in week two; otherwise the Vols covered the first five games before the 9-6 debacle against Alabama, still the worst non-2001-LSU loss of my lifetime
  • A wild sequence in the mid-80’s: the Vols covered the last four games of 1985, including the 35-7 win over Miami in the Sugar Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog. Then the Vols failed to cover in the first six weeks of 1986 in a 2-4 start. Then they covered the last five weeks of the regular season and in the bowl against Minnesota in a 5-1 finish. And then they covered the first five weeks of 1987, making it 11 in a row between seasons.

So while beating Kentucky is ordinary, if things overall feel fairly unprecedented, it’s because they kind of are.

A 7-5 finish remains firmly on the table, the preseason Vegas prediction within reach even after losing to Georgia State and BYU. If the Vols get there and win the bowl game – both of ESPN’s projections have the Vols in the Gator Bowl this morning, while Banner Society puts the Vols in Charlotte against UNC but leaves a tantalizing match-up in the realm of possibility by putting Michigan in the Gator Bowl – an 8-5 finish would still be the third-best season since 2007. The kind of marquee win Tennessee earned last year but failed to make last isn’t available the next two weeks. But win both of them, and it might be there for this team in January.

If there’s a full-circle narrative to this team, it’s fitting that Jarrett Guarantano should be the starting quarterback when the Vols go to Missouri in two weeks.

https://twitter.com/BroadwayJay2/status/1193394475093176320
Just easin’ the tension, baby.

Improbably, Guarantano is back in the conversation for Peyton Manning’s career completion percentage mark. After a 7-of-8 performance against the Cats, Guarantano is at 62.1%. Manning finished at 62.5%. Impossibly, “I hope he never plays another down,” has morphed into, “Hey, he could come back next year!”

He’s part of an offense featuring this:

Catches Per Game – Tennessee 2010-19

  1. Justin Hunter 2012 – 6.1
  2. Gerald Jones 2010 – 5.5
  3. Jauan Jennings 2019 – 5.0

And, at the same time, this:

Yards Per Catch with 20+ Catches – National Leaders

  1. Geraud Sanders, Air Force
  2. Tarique Milton, Iowa State
  3. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
  4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
  5. Marquez Callaway, Tennessee

Tennessee is close. On a lot of levels. To bowl eligibility. To reasserting dominance over the second tier of the SEC East. To certifiable progress in the year it looked least possible.

Close was ultimately a bad word for Butch Jones; his first two teams, digging out of a similar hole, played nine one-possession games. The Vols went 4-5. Pruitt’s teams just played their fifth one-possession game, and are 2-3. The best way to win them remains not to play them, and so far in this streak the Vols had handled their business without drama in victory, and with the right kind of theatrics in Tuscaloosa.

But when a close game seemed unavoidable from the opening minutes last night, and the Vols failed to help themselves…they still won. On the road in the SEC. Thanks, in large part, to an incredible goal line stand that had to warm Jeremy Pruitt’s heart.

Pruitt and the Vols made it this far last year. We’re close to an especially surprising something more.

Vowel-deficient trdlgmsr wins Week 11 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, Wedflatrock re-takes season-lead

Congratulations to trdlgmsr, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 17-3 and 194 confidence points. For winning, we’re all pitching in and getting him or her some vowels. Go Vowels!

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 trdlgmsr 17-3 194 17-14**
1 tbone 16-4 194 24-14
3 keepontruckin 16-4 191 23-13
4 memphispete 16-4 185 23-13**
4 corn from a jar 16-4 185 23-17
6 rsbrooks25 15-5 183 15-9**
6 daetilus 16-4 183 30-17
8 TennVol95 in 3D! 16-4 178 24-14
9 Rossboro 13-7 173 27-0**
9 mmmjtx 14-6 173 27-17
9 doritoscowboy 14-6 173 0-0
12 PAVolFan 14-6 172 21-14**
12 ctull 14-6 172 20-17
12 Displaced_Vol_Fan 15-5 172 24-16
12 Wilk21 15-5 172 27-14
12 cnyvol 14-6 172 23-20
12 LuckyGuess 13-7 172 31-20
18 rollervol 15-5 171 24-23
19 hounddog3 14-6 170 20-16**
19 Jayyyy 13-7 170 24-14
19 GeorgeMonkey 12-8 170 24-21
19 Neil Neisner 15-5 170 420-32
23 wedflatrock 13-7 169 24-20**
23 Joel @ GRT 13-7 169 28-21
23 Orange On Orange 14-6 169 31-27
23 Anaconda 13-7 169 13-17
23 Jahiegel 13-7 169 21-22
28 UTSeven 13-7 168 33-25
29 claireb7tx 13-7 167 21-14**
29 birdjam 14-6 167 23-21
31 boro wvvol 14-6 166 31-21
32 PensacolaVolFan 13-7 165 20-10**
32 Harley 13-7 165 30-17
32 ga26engr 13-7 165 32-27
32 Phonies 14-6 165 30-31
32 Hjohn 13-7 165 30-31
37 joeb_1 13-7 164 27-24
38 mariettavol 12-8 163 29-19
39 Bulldog 85 13-7 162 30-21**
39 ChuckieTVol 13-7 162 31-20
39 Sam 13-7 162 31-20
39 jfarrar90 14-6 162 31-21
43 bluelite 13-7 161 10-9
44 dgibbs 14-6 159 27-24
45 alanmar 14-6 158 27-31
46 Crusher 12-8 157 35-17
47 Hixson Vol1 13-7 156 27-13**
47 Raven17 13-7 156 30-22
47 patmd 15-5 156 17-24
50 TennRebel 13-7 154 17-21**
50 DinnerJacket 13-7 154 24-28
52 ltvol99 12-8 151 28-24
53 C_hawkfan 12-8 150 17-20
54 ddayvolsfan 11-9 144 27-14
55 vols95 10-10 143 24-21
56 Timbuktu126 11-9 134 11-7
57 HUTCH 11-9 113 35-31
58 Will Shelton 0-20 112 0-0**
58 waitwhereami 0-20 112 0-0**
58 Knottfair 0-20 112 -
58 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 112 -
58 mmb61 0-20 112 -
58 UTVols18 0-20 112 -
58 Salty Seth 0-20 112 -
58 Teri28 0-20 112 -
58 tpi 0-20 112 -
58 aaron217 0-20 112 -
58 If you ain’t first you’re 0-20 112 -
58 tallahasseevol 0-20 112 -
58 waltsspac 0-20 112 -
58 Willewillm 0-20 112 -
58 Orange Swarm 0-20 112 -
58 Dmorton 0-20 112 -
58 RockyPopPicks 0-20 112 -
58 VillaVol 0-20 112 -
58 Jrstep 0-20 112 -
58 ed75 0-20 112 -
58 jeremy.waldroop 0-20 112 -
58 rockytopinKy 0-20 112 -
58 OriginalVol1814 0-20 112 -
58 BristVol 0-20 112 -
58 orange_devil87 0-20 112 -
58 VFL49er 0-20 112 -
58 ddutcher 0-20 112 -
58 BZACHARY 0-20 112 -
58 Caban Greys 0-20 112 -
58 cactusvol 0-20 112 -
58 Techboy 0-20 112 -
58 JLPasour 0-20 112 -

Wedflatrock re-takes the lead for the season with a record of 153-67 and 1812 confidence points.

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 wedflatrock 153-67 69.55 1812
2 birdjam 154-66 70.00 1811
3 PAVolFan 156-64 70.91 1810
4 GeorgeMonkey 152-68 69.09 1808
5 corn from a jar 152-68 69.09 1807
6 memphispete 155-65 70.45 1794
7 LuckyGuess 149-71 67.73 1783
8 joeb_1 146-74 66.36 1759
9 C_hawkfan 158-62 71.82 1756
10 Hixson Vol1 153-67 69.55 1753
11 jfarrar90 147-73 66.82 1750
12 Displaced_Vol_Fan 150-70 68.18 1749
13 hounddog3 149-71 67.73 1745
14 trdlgmsr 146-74 66.36 1740
15 cnyvol 151-69 68.64 1737
16 ChuckieTVol 152-68 69.09 1734
16 Orange On Orange 146-74 66.36 1734
18 Joel @ GRT 149-71 67.73 1733
19 Raven17 146-74 66.36 1732
20 alanmar 149-71 67.73 1727
21 boro wvvol 144-76 65.45 1724
22 UTSeven 137-83 62.27 1722
23 daetilus 141-79 64.09 1718
23 Harley 148-72 67.27 1718
23 TennRebel 144-76 65.45 1718
26 Phonies 146-74 66.36 1717
27 Anaconda 135-85 61.36 1712
28 DinnerJacket 146-74 66.36 1711
29 ga26engr 148-72 67.27 1695
30 Rossboro 141-79 64.09 1694
30 Bulldog 85 145-75 65.91 1694
32 mmmjtx 146-74 66.36 1687
33 keepontruckin 135-85 61.36 1681
34 waitwhereami 136-84 61.82 1676
35 Knottfair 132-88 60.00 1671
36 claireb7tx 142-78 64.55 1668
37 Sam 146-74 66.36 1666
38 mariettavol 131-89 59.55 1663
39 Crusher 143-77 65.00 1660
40 doritoscowboy 144-76 65.45 1649
41 Neil Neisner 141-79 64.09 1648
42 ctull 132-88 60.00 1639
42 ltvol99 151-69 68.64 1639
44 rsbrooks25 149-71 67.73 1634
45 Jahiegel 136-84 61.82 1633
46 ddayvolsfan 146-74 66.36 1630
47 Jayyyy 128-92 58.18 1626
48 tbone 138-82 62.73 1614
49 rollervol 140-80 63.64 1593
50 HUTCH 138-82 62.73 1590
51 bluelite 134-86 60.91 1571
52 Wilk21 133-87 60.45 1569
53 TennVol95 in 3D! 131-89 59.55 1568
53 jeremy.waldroop 108-112 49.09 1568
55 dgibbs 118-102 53.64 1561
56 Hjohn 127-93 57.73 1506
57 Timbuktu126 118-102 53.64 1493
58 patmd 131-89 59.55 1479
59 PensacolaVolFan 130-90 59.09 1475
60 vols95 96-124 43.64 1432
61 VillaVol 103-117 46.82 1407
62 rockytopinKy 95-125 43.18 1402
63 Orange Swarm 85-135 38.64 1387
64 Will Shelton 52-168 23.64 1274
65 OriginalVol1814 56-164 25.45 1272
66 aaron217 63-157 28.64 1267
67 BZACHARY 74-146 33.64 1264
68 tpi 54-166 24.55 1209
69 RockyPopPicks 33-187 15.00 1202
70 Willewillm 25-195 11.36 1115
71 Jrstep 34-186 15.45 1109
72 BristVol 26-194 11.82 1090
73 Dmorton 27-193 12.27 1087
74 Caban Greys 13-207 5.91 1077
75 tallahasseevol 14-206 6.36 1067
76 JLPasour 14-206 6.36 1065
76 orange_devil87 15-205 6.82 1065
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-207 5.91 1065
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-207 5.91 1056
80 ed75 13-207 5.91 1052
81 Salty Seth 12-208 5.45 1042
82 Techboy 11-209 5.00 1041
83 waltsspac 11-209 5.00 1038
84 cactusvol 12-208 5.45 1032
85 VFL49er 4-216 1.82 981
86 Teri28 5-215 2.27 934
87 ddutcher 0-220 0.00 933
87 mmb61 0-220 0.00 933
87 UTVols18 0-220 0.00 933