Heading into the 2012 season, whatever optimism we could muster included an assumption about Tennessee’s program against the middle tier of its schedule: not just that the Vols would restore order against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but that Tennessee would take care of business against NC State and Mississippi State, because that’s what Tennessee should do.
Missouri joined the SEC that year, 8-5 the year before, champions of the Big 12 North the year before that, and not too far removed from flirting with the national title in 2007. But the Tigers were still part of that assumption: we’ll beat Missouri, because that’s what Tennessee should do.
Fans were out on Derek Dooley by the time we got to the Tigers, in part because he failed to beat Mississippi State along with a host of ranked foes. It took some of the air out of a thrilling four-overtime affair, won by the Tigers after the Vols blew a 28-14 third quarter lead. Missouri – like Arkansas, South Carolina, and Texas A&M – beat the Vols and our assumptions in our first meeting as conference rivals.
The Tigers ascended to the East title the following two seasons as Butch Jones started brick-by-bricking; Tennessee got Missouri in a hard-fought defensive slugfest in 2015 and the polar opposite of that game in 2016. But the last two years, Missouri dismantled Tennessee by identical 50-17 scores. The first was Butch Jones’ final game, but last year was far more costly: the Tigers knocked Jarrett Guarantano out of the game after two passes, then knocked the momentum out of Tennessee’s season.
Seven years and two coaches later, those assumption are gone. But it’s important that they start making their way back. And the only way to do that is for Tennessee to beat South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt on a regular basis.
Since the Tigers came into the league, the Vols have gone 4-0 against the second tier of the SEC East just once, in 2015. Consider the way this used to work:
38-1 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 1992-2004, which means the Vols won 38 in a row after losing at South Carolina in 1992.
15-6 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 2005-2011. Steve Spurrier’s arrival instantly changed the South Carolina game; the Vols were also beaten by an NFL quarterback in 2005 and a WR quarterback in 2011.
15-17 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt from 2012-2019, including 2-0 so far this season.
Not only is 2015 Tennessee’s only sweep since Missouri joined the league, 2014 is the only time the Vols went 3-1 against this tier. To be sure, there were some really good South Carolina and Missouri teams in the first half of this decade. But the fact that Tennessee has a losing record against what used to be the tier of assumption proves the Vols have belonged in it.
We’re not going back to 38-1. South Carolina was bowl eligible once in the 90’s; they’ve gone 14 times since 2000. Missouri came in on similar footing to Arkansas and already won the division twice. And Mark Stoops has elevated Kentucky to the point that a 6-6 finish this year might be a legitimate disappointment.
But the ice is getting thin everywhere outside of Lexington. Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt could all be breaking in a new coach next season. The timing is right for separation.
Let’s be clear: the Vols are underdogs tomorrow night. Tennessee has covered the spread five weeks in a row, and if they make it six it’ll be the first time since at least 1990. If the Vols fall to the Tigers in a close game and beat Vanderbilt, it’ll still be a job well done since October. But if we’re looking for separation language in the summer months, this is the win to get. Redemption can still be discussed at 6-6. Win tomorrow night and take care of Vanderbilt, and the conversation is resurrection. And we can go back to thinking about living dangerously in the upper tier of the SEC East; back to believing that’s where Tennessee belongs.
After we’d finished the Vols magazine this spring, we decided that the primary stretch goal for the Vols in 2019 should be to win the Second Tier of the SEC East. There were other goals as well — be more competitive against the Big 3 rivals of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and win the non-conference slate — but the chief goal was to fix the nagging problem of losing all too often to the likes of South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.
Our rivals will probably laugh themselves into incontinence over the notion of Tennessee fans rooting for a consolation prize, but as we said this summer, to get to the penthouse, you have to first find your way out of the basement. Heading into this season, the Vols were 2-5 against Missouri since 2012, 2-5 against Vanderbilt since 2012, 3-6 against South Carolina since 2010, and had even let Kentucky win two games in the last eight years. Tennessee was on a two-game losing streak to Missouri and three-game losing streaks to South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Before they could tackle the first world problem of challenging for the SEC East Division, the Vols had to solve the third-world problem of beating the Tigers, Gamecocks, ‘Cats, and ‘Dores.
Well, so far, so good, as Tennessee currently sits at 3-3 and third in the SEC East behind Georgia and Florida with two SEC games to go.
Georgia
6-1
Florida
6-2
Tennessee
3-3
South Carolina
3-5
Kentucky
3-5
Missouri
2-4
Vanderbilt
1-6
What’s already settled
Part of the SEC East pecking order is already settled, as Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky have all completed SEC play for the season. Tennessee can’t catch Florida, and even if the Vols lose their two remaining games, they’ll finish with the same record as South Carolina and Kentucky but will have head-to-head wins over both of them.
Georgia can’t be caught by the Vols or anyone else, even though the Bulldogs still have a game this weekend against Texas A&M. They’ll probably finish 7-1, but even if they lose and end up at 6-2, they will win the East because of their head-to-head win over the Gators.
And the best Vanderbilt can do is finish 2-6, even if the Commodores beat the Vols.
What’s not yet settled: the SEC East’s Second Tier
The race for the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East comes down to Tennessee and Missouri, and both teams have two SEC games yet to play.
Tennessee’s two remaining games are against Missouri and Vanderbilt, and Missouri’s last two are Tennessee and Arkansas. The Vols could finish the season anywhere from 5-3 to 3-5. Win both to go 5-3, and the best Missouri can do is 3-5 and the head-to-heads won’t even come into play. Lose both to go 3-5, and the worst Missouri can do is also 3-5, plus the Tigers will have the head-to-head advantage over the Vols.
So, win out, and the Vols will be at the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East, but lose the rest of the way and that spot will belong to Missouri.
But what happens if the Vols split the next two games? If they beat Missouri but lose to Vanderbilt, they’ll finish at 4-4. Missouri will be at 3-4 after losing to the Vols but can get to 4-4 with a win over Arkansas. But they’ll still lose the head-to-head with Tennessee. Losing to Vandy will still taste like vomit, but at least Tennessee will be atop the Second Tier.
The Vols will also finish at 4-4 if they lose to Missouri but beat Vanderbilt. But Missouri would be 3-4 after beating Tennessee and would have to lose to Arkansas for Tennessee to finish ahead of them. The only teams that have lost to Arkansas this year are Portland State and Colorado State. Draw your own conclusions.
The most likely scenario, though, includes Tennessee beating Vanderbilt and Missouri beating Arkansas, as ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 91.2% chance against Vandy and Missouri an 84.4% chance against Arkansas. Assuming the FPI is right, the SEC East’s Second Tier will come down to the winner of the Tennessee-Missouri game Saturday night. If the Vols win, they’ll be 5-3 with Missouri at 3-5. If Missouri wins, both teams will be 4-4 and the Tigers will have the tiebreaker.
So yeah, the outcome of this weekend’s game between the Vols and Tigers will almost certainly determine whether Tennessee accomplishes the preseason goal of finishing at the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East. If they lose, there’s still a small chance, but they’ll not only have to beat Vandy, Missouri will have to lose to Arkansas. I might be able to bring myself to root for pigs, but I don’t know if I can muster up the expectation that they’ll actually win.
But if the Vols beat Missouri this weekend, Tennessee will hit that goal no matter what happens next week. So let’s do that.
It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.
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Tennessee opened as a 4-point underdog to the Tigers this week, and it’s generally hung right around there all week, although some have it at -4.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Missouri Saturday night in Columbia? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.
Vols-Tigers
From the perspective of Tennessee
Tennessee points:
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5
The Missouri scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
Kentucky 20.1
UAB 18.7
Tennessee scored 30 points against UAB and 17 against Kentucky, which puts the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri at 23.6.
Missouri’s points:
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23
Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26
The Missouri scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Mississippi State 26.5
UAB 25.5
UAB scored 7 points against the Vols, and Mississippi State got 10. Estimated points for Missouri: 8.6
Estimated score: Tennessee 23.6, Missouri 8.6
From the perspective of Missouri
Missouri’s points:
Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only):
South Carolina 25
Kentucky 20.1
Missouri scored only 7 points against Kentucky but 34 points against South Carolina. Throwing that in the pot together means the SPM estimates 20.9 points for Missouri against the Vols.
Tennessee’s points:
Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s):
South Carolina 24.2
Kentucky 22.1
Kentucky scored 29 points against Missouri, and South Carolina scored 14. Estimated points for Missouri: 22.2
Estimated score: Missouri 20.9, Tennessee 22.2
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 22.9, Missouri 14.7
SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -8.2
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 12.7
UAB as a comp alarms me. Removing them from the equation from the Vols’ perspective gives the Vols 17 points and Missouri 10. That would make the final estimate Vols 19.6, Tigers 15.5.
Also, there’s a big difference between the results against the two comps used for Missouri’s perspective. South Carolina and Kentucky are the two best comparisons, but the Tigers’ results against them are wildly divergent. Is Missouri the team that beat South Carolina 34-14 early in the season at home, or is it the team that recently lost 29-7 to Kentucky on the road? The machine splits that baby, which is probably the wisest thing to do under the circumstances, but it’s also setting the stage for possibly being really wrong.
So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 20, Missouri 16. Even though I think the SPM is too high on the Vols in this one, I still like them to win outright as an underdog.
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, the Vols opened as 4-point underdogs and you might find -4.5 somewhere. With an over/under of 45.5-46, that translates to something like Missouri 25, Tennessee 21.
The SPM and I both like the Vols to win outright as 4-point underdogs against Missouri this week. The machine is feeling good about it, but it is at odds with both Vegas and SP+.
After over three years of hiding in the shadows of Tennessee previews, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine finally stepped out into the spotlight last week, cleared its throat, and promptly threw up.
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
Last week, the SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) overall, and its favorites didn’t do much better. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 6-7 (46.15%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was only 3-5 (37.50%). It’s this last group that we’ve been referring to as our “favorites” and posted for the world to see last week.
This was out of character for the favorites, though. So far this season, the favorites have been under .500 only twice, once last week and once in the second week of the season when it went 3-4. Three other times, it’s been right at .500. The other weeks: 11-4, 6-2, 5-2, 12-3, 6-5, 8-3, and 7-2. I’m calling last week stage fright.
For the season, the SPM is now 301-284 (51.45%) overall, 127-96 (56.95%) over the confidence threshold, and 73-42 (63.48%) for the favorites.
Meanwhile, the SP+ had an excellent week, finishing at 29-21-1 (58%) and is still 55% on the season.
Two seasons ago Lamonte Turner splashed 39.5% of his three-point attempts, and went 38-of-84 (45.2%) in conference play, the second-best mark in the league that season (stats via KenPom). It was part of a remarkable shooting run from the 2017-18 Vols, with Admiral Schofield (39.5%), Jordan Bowden (39.5%), and Jordan Bone (38%) pushing Tennessee to shoot 38% from the arc as a team; that’s the best number the Vols put up since Bruce Pearl’s first team hit 38.8% behind 43.7% from Chris Lofton and 42.2% from C.J. Watson.
Last year Turner struggled to get his shoulder right, finishing at 32% from the arc (but still the maker of big shots). The Vols still hit 36.7% as a team, thanks in large part to Schofield’s 42.2%.
So far this season, Turner has been amazing as the point guard: 28 assists in three games, including 14 without a turnover against Murray State, helping the Vols get an assist on 67.8% of their buckets, currently ninth nationally in assist percentage. And Turner played 39 minutes against the Racers and the Huskies, plus 36 in the blowout of UNC Asheville.
The only blemish: a slow start from the arc at 3-of-16. And yet, the Vols are shooting 46.2% from three in the first three games, the third-best percentage in the nation. Bowden is 9-of-14, Yves Pons 5-of-8, Jalen Johnson 3-of-8, Josiah James 2-of-3, Davonte Gaines 1-of-1, and even Zach Kent is in on the action at 1-of-2.
The juxtaposition of Tennessee’s percentage and the number of threes the Vols take is staggering early: third nationally in percentage made, 316th nationally in percentage taken. But it plays into something that happened with Tennessee some last season: even for a good three-point shooting team, too many attempts got the Vols out of their offense and sometimes led to defeat.
Via Sports-Reference, last season the Vols went 4-4 when attempting 24+ threes, and 27-2 when attempting 23 or less. There are a couple of overtimes in those 24+ games that can skew the numbers a tad, but generally Tennessee’s best basketball didn’t include heavy reliance on the three, unless they were going to hit an even more unusually high percentage of them (12-of-29 for 41.4% against #1 Gonzaga).
In Tennessee’s first real test this season against Washington, I wondered if the Vols would go outside more, especially against the Huskies’ interior and facing a zone that can invite deep threes. Bowden and Turner have been around long enough and made enough to get a green light. But instead, the Vols were disciplined and carved up Washington inside the arc, while still splashing 6-of-13 from beyond.
We need more time and more games to see if Yves Pons’ shot is real and if Turner’s shot will come on again. But even without last year’s vets inside, the Vols aren’t falling in love with the three, even if it sure looks like it wants to fall in love with them.
We’ll see if that continues tonight when the #20 Vols take on 0-3 Alabama State (7:00 PM, SEC Network+).
The Tennessee Volunteers kick off in the evening slot this Saturday (7:30 on the SEC Network), but the appetizers start early and keep on coming all week long. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.
The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
7:30 PM
ESPN2
Channel Hop
It's football
Ohio
Bowling Green
7:30 PM
ESPNU
Channel Hop
It's football
Look, it’s Week 13, and football will be gone before you know it. So . . . watch ’em if you got ’em.
I left this here because I was amused that this was the only Friday game and apparently even ESPN+ is washing its hair that night.
Gameday, November 23, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
#9 Penn State
#2 Ohio State
12:00 PM
FOX
Live
Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M
#4 Georgia
3:30 PM
CBS
Channel Hop
Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State
Vanderbilt
3:30 PM
SEC ALTERNATE
DVR / Check in
Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas
#13 Baylor
3:30 PM
FS1
Channel Hop
Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee
Missouri
7:30 PM
SECN
Live
Go Vols
Honestly, there’s a lot of garbage on this weekend, and some of it features Top 10 and Top 20 teams. Who between Penn State and Ohio State would you most like to see lose at noon? Ditto in the Big 12 at 3:30 between Texas and Baylor (although now that I write that — Go Bears.) Vanderbilt can’t even get on the regular SEC Network in the afternoon slot, but hey, they might have a chance against FCS ETSU. Goooooo . . . Bucs!
Tennessee kicks off against Missouri at 7:30 on the SEC Network.
Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Bottom line for this week: Both defenses appear to have huge advantages, so whichever team can make the most of that, manage at least something respectable on offense, and win the turnover battle should win.
Details below.
When the Vols have the ball
Where’s the opportunity?
Well, maybe our quarterback won’t get sacked. And maybe our running backs won’t be tripped up behind our own line of scrimmage. Other than that, the answer to this question may be, “On defense.”
Where’s the danger?
Everywhere you look. Missouri’s defense is Top 10 overall, 6th against the pass and 34th against the run. When their side looks mostly green with a little bit of yellow and ours looks mostly orange, it’s not good news.
Gameplan for the Vols on offense
Use the off week to scheme up a couple of free and easy scores. Other than that, just balance, I guess, and see what you can get. And play slow so your defense isn’t worn out in the fourth quarter.
Vols on defense
Where’s the opportunity?
And the tables turn. Missouri’s offense is really struggling. This is especially true in the red zone, but mostly true everywhere. The Vols defense isn’t Top 10 or anything, but it does appear to be significantly better than the Tigers offense.
Where’s the danger?
The danger is that to the extent Tennessee might have an advantage when the Vols are on defense, it’s not as pronounced as Missouri’s advantage when the Vols offense is on the field.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
Get off the field quick, but don’t give up any big plays. They are allergic to the red zone, so don’t let them avoid it by scoring from 20+ yards out.
Special teams
If the Vols can return a punt for a touchdown in this game, it’s going to help a lot. Problem is, we can’t sleep when punting to them, either.
Turnovers and penalties
Oh, good. They like to self-destruct via yellow flags. Neither team appears to be more vulnerable than the other to turnovers, so whoever can win that battle will have more of a leg up than usual.
I had to look at this four or five times before concluding that it was weird but not wrong: Six players finished with perfect 20-0 records in this week’s Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest. In all the years we’ve been doing this, somebody may have been 20-0 at some point, but I don’t remember it. And I certainly don’t remember six people doing it at the same time. So, congratulations to us, and to me, who won the tiebreaker. Go me.
Here are the full results for this week:
Rank
Player
W-L
Points
Tiebreaker
1
Joel @ GRT
20-0
210
21-17**
1
wedflatrock
20-0
210
24-17
1
Jahiegel
20-0
210
23-21
1
C_hawkfan
20-0
210
24-21
1
UTSeven
20-0
210
31-21
1
Anaconda
20-0
210
35-31
7
ctull
19-1
209
28-0**
7
LuckyGuess
19-1
209
28-27
7
birdjam
19-1
209
20-24
10
Bulldog 85
18-2
207
27-23**
10
cnyvol
18-2
207
23-24
10
Rossboro
18-2
207
0-0
13
memphispete
18-2
206
28-17**
13
PAVolFan
19-1
206
30-21
13
Hixson Vol1
19-1
206
29-26
13
GeorgeMonkey
18-2
206
20-21
17
daetilus
19-1
204
23-20**
17
ltvol99
18-2
204
24-21
17
jfarrar90
19-1
204
24-23
17
Hjohn
17-3
204
0-0
21
hounddog3
17-3
203
20-14**
21
ChuckieTVol
18-2
203
23-20
21
mmmjtx
19-1
203
27-24
24
TennVol95 in 3D!
17-3
202
31-27
25
joeb_1
17-3
201
24-27
26
Displaced_Vol_Fan
16-4
200
20-16**
26
Phonies
18-2
200
24-23
26
patmd
18-2
200
17-24
29
keepontruckin
18-2
197
17-20
30
Sam
16-4
196
24-20**
30
corn from a jar
16-4
196
21-28
32
vols95
18-2
195
27-24
33
Crusher
18-2
194
35-31**
33
alanmar
18-2
194
38-34
35
rollervol
18-2
193
27-24**
35
boro wvvol
18-2
193
31-28
35
doritoscowboy
17-3
193
0-0
38
TennRebel
18-2
192
21-13**
38
PensacolaVolFan
17-3
192
60-0
40
trdlgmsr
17-3
191
17-14
41
Jayyyy
15-5
190
24-28
42
Wilk21
17-3
187
25-31
43
Harley
15-5
186
20-24**
43
tbone
15-5
186
24-28
45
HUTCH
17-3
183
13-31
46
claireb7tx
17-3
180
28-21**
46
ga26engr
17-3
180
28-24
48
DinnerJacket
15-5
178
24-27**
48
bluelite
13-7
178
27-31
50
Raven17
13-7
177
31-24
51
ddayvolsfan
16-4
169
31-17
52
Timbuktu126
14-6
165
17-10
53
rsbrooks25
15-5
154
21-28
54
Neil Neisner
5-15
90
-
55
waitwhereami
0-20
89
0-0**
55
Knottfair
0-20
89
-
55
Aaron Birkholz
0-20
89
-
55
mmb61
0-20
89
-
55
UTVols18
0-20
89
-
55
Salty Seth
0-20
89
-
55
Teri28
0-20
89
-
55
Will Shelton
0-20
89
-
55
mariettavol
0-20
89
-
55
tpi
0-20
89
-
55
aaron217
0-20
89
-
55
If you ain’t first you’re
0-20
89
-
55
tallahasseevol
0-20
89
-
55
dgibbs
0-20
89
-
55
waltsspac
0-20
89
-
55
Willewillm
0-20
89
-
55
Orange Swarm
0-20
89
-
55
Dmorton
0-20
89
-
55
RockyPopPicks
0-20
89
-
55
VillaVol
0-20
89
-
55
Jrstep
0-20
89
-
55
ed75
0-20
89
-
55
jeremy.waldroop
0-20
89
-
55
rockytopinKy
0-20
89
-
55
OriginalVol1814
0-20
89
-
55
BristVol
0-20
89
-
55
orange_devil87
0-20
89
-
55
Orange On Orange
0-20
89
-
55
VFL49er
0-20
89
-
55
ddutcher
0-20
89
-
55
BZACHARY
0-20
89
-
55
Caban Greys
0-20
89
-
55
cactusvol
0-20
89
-
55
Techboy
0-20
89
-
55
JLPasour
0-20
89
-
Wedflatrock remains in the lead after that nonsense with a record of 173-67 and 2022 confidence points.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
The Vols were off this week, so there’s no change in expectations there. And Vanderbilt looked about the same as usual, so there’s no change there. Missouri, well . . . Kelly Bryant played, so that made me more uncomfortable about him playing next week against the Vols, but the Tigers offense still struggled even with him at the helm and the team at home. So no change for me there, either.
My current expected win total is still 6.4. I think 6 wins is pretty safe, and hitting the preseason goal of 7-5 will all come down to the Missouri game. That, by the way, would also mean that the team beat our GRT 2019 magazine preseason goals of finishing 4th in the SEC East behind Missouri despite playing much of the season without the guy on the cover. Win both remaining games, and the Vols finish 5-3, and the closest Missouri could get would be 4-4. These are eggs and not chickens, though, so Tennessee needs to keep them safe and warm for two more weeks.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
After Week 7: 4.4
After Week 8: 4.7
After Week 9: 5.6
After Week 10: 5.9
After Week 11: 6.4
After Week 12: 6.4
Details: I still have Missouri at 60% and Vanderbilt at 80%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
Off this week.
The Vols’ future opponents
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Kelly Bryant played this week for Missouri against the Gators, and he was slippery but the offense was still mostly ineffective, and the team is now on a four-game losing streak. The Tigers defense was tough in the first half, but Florida still ended up getting 23 against them. The SPM hasn’t liked Tennessee in this one all season — until this week, and now it’s looking like it’s going to come down to keeping Bryant from getting back on track.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 2-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
As Will has been fond of saying the past several weeks, Vanderbilt is just a bad football team. Against Kentucky this weekend, they managed only 198 yards of offense while giving up 528 yards to the Wildcats. If it weren’t for the recent history of struggles, we wouldn’t be worried about these guys at all.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 6-4 (3-3), 3rd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
There’s no shame in losing to App State, and sitting at 6-4 with two winnable games to go after a 2-10 season last year has to feel good for the Panthers.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 6-4
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 6-5 (5-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Florida Gators
Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
Georgia looked good against Auburn and had the game well in hand until Auburn caught some lightning and made a game of it. The Tigers actually ended up with more yards and more first downs than the Bulldogs, but it was too late. With the Gators and Tigers now behind them, Georgia looks ready to roll the rest of the way home into the post-season.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 4-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
Prayers for Tua. To make the SEC Championship Game again this year, Alabama would have to win out (including the Iron Bowl) and have LSU lose twice. The former is possible, even without Tua, but one of LSU’s remaining games is against Arkansas. In other words, LSU is not going to lose twice.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
We warned in our preseason magazine that South Carolina had the toughest schedule in the SEC and that the Gamecocks could struggle even if they were good. It’s hard to say at this point whether they’re actually good, but there can be no doubt that they have succumbed to that brutal schedule. They’ve lost 7 games already with only No. 3 Clemson left, and they’re likely to finish this season 4-8 and home for the holidays.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 7-3 (4-2), 3rd in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 5-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
