Heading into the 2012 season, whatever optimism we could muster included an assumption about Tennessee’s program against the middle tier of its schedule: not just that the Vols would restore order against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but that Tennessee would take care of business against NC State and Mississippi State, because that’s what Tennessee should do.

Missouri joined the SEC that year, 8-5 the year before, champions of the Big 12 North the year before that, and not too far removed from flirting with the national title in 2007. But the Tigers were still part of that assumption: we’ll beat Missouri, because that’s what Tennessee should do.

Fans were out on Derek Dooley by the time we got to the Tigers, in part because he failed to beat Mississippi State along with a host of ranked foes. It took some of the air out of a thrilling four-overtime affair, won by the Tigers after the Vols blew a 28-14 third quarter lead. Missouri – like Arkansas, South Carolina, and Texas A&M – beat the Vols and our assumptions in our first meeting as conference rivals.

The Tigers ascended to the East title the following two seasons as Butch Jones started brick-by-bricking; Tennessee got Missouri in a hard-fought defensive slugfest in 2015 and the polar opposite of that game in 2016. But the last two years, Missouri dismantled Tennessee by identical 50-17 scores. The first was Butch Jones’ final game, but last year was far more costly: the Tigers knocked Jarrett Guarantano out of the game after two passes, then knocked the momentum out of Tennessee’s season.

Seven years and two coaches later, those assumption are gone. But it’s important that they start making their way back. And the only way to do that is for Tennessee to beat South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt on a regular basis.

Since the Tigers came into the league, the Vols have gone 4-0 against the second tier of the SEC East just once, in 2015. Consider the way this used to work:

• 38-1 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 1992-2004, which means the Vols won 38 in a row after losing at South Carolina in 1992.
• 15-6 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 2005-2011. Steve Spurrier’s arrival instantly changed the South Carolina game; the Vols were also beaten by an NFL quarterback in 2005 and a WR quarterback in 2011.
• 15-17 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt from 2012-2019, including 2-0 so far this season.

Not only is 2015 Tennessee’s only sweep since Missouri joined the league, 2014 is the only time the Vols went 3-1 against this tier. To be sure, there were some really good South Carolina and Missouri teams in the first half of this decade. But the fact that Tennessee has a losing record against what used to be the tier of assumption proves the Vols have belonged in it.

The belief that Tennessee has to start beating these four teams regularly before it can worry about Florida, Georgia, and Alabama isn’t a casualty of Georgia State. The last time it looked like Tennessee separated themselves, it was this tier – South Carolina and Vanderbilt – that cost the Vols the most in 2016.

We’re not going back to 38-1. South Carolina was bowl eligible once in the 90’s; they’ve gone 14 times since 2000. Missouri came in on similar footing to Arkansas and already won the division twice. And Mark Stoops has elevated Kentucky to the point that a 6-6 finish this year might be a legitimate disappointment.

But the ice is getting thin everywhere outside of Lexington. Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt could all be breaking in a new coach next season. The timing is right for separation.

Let’s be clear: the Vols are underdogs tomorrow night. Tennessee has covered the spread five weeks in a row, and if they make it six it’ll be the first time since at least 1990. If the Vols fall to the Tigers in a close game and beat Vanderbilt, it’ll still be a job well done since October. But if we’re looking for separation language in the summer months, this is the win to get. Redemption can still be discussed at 6-6. Win tomorrow night and take care of Vanderbilt, and the conversation is resurrection. And we can go back to thinking about living dangerously in the upper tier of the SEC East; back to believing that’s where Tennessee belongs.

After we’d finished the Vols magazine this spring, we decided that the primary stretch goal for the Vols in 2019 should be to win the Second Tier of the SEC East. There were other goals as well — be more competitive against the Big 3 rivals of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and win the non-conference slate — but the chief goal was to fix the nagging problem of losing all too often to the likes of South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.

Our rivals will probably laugh themselves into incontinence over the notion of Tennessee fans rooting for a consolation prize, but as we said this summer, to get to the penthouse, you have to first find your way out of the basement. Heading into this season, the Vols were 2-5 against Missouri since 2012, 2-5 against Vanderbilt since 2012, 3-6 against South Carolina since 2010, and had even let Kentucky win two games in the last eight years. Tennessee was on a two-game losing streak to Missouri and three-game losing streaks to South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Before they could tackle the first world problem of challenging for the SEC East Division, the Vols had to solve the third-world problem of beating the Tigers, Gamecocks, ‘Cats, and ‘Dores.

Well, so far, so good, as Tennessee currently sits at 3-3 and third in the SEC East behind Georgia and Florida with two SEC games to go.

What’s already settled

Part of the SEC East pecking order is already settled, as Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky have all completed SEC play for the season. Tennessee can’t catch Florida, and even if the Vols lose their two remaining games, they’ll finish with the same record as South Carolina and Kentucky but will have head-to-head wins over both of them.

Georgia can’t be caught by the Vols or anyone else, even though the Bulldogs still have a game this weekend against Texas A&M. They’ll probably finish 7-1, but even if they lose and end up at 6-2, they will win the East because of their head-to-head win over the Gators.

And the best Vanderbilt can do is finish 2-6, even if the Commodores beat the Vols.

What’s not yet settled: the SEC East’s Second Tier

The race for the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East comes down to Tennessee and Missouri, and both teams have two SEC games yet to play.

Tennessee’s two remaining games are against Missouri and Vanderbilt, and Missouri’s last two are Tennessee and Arkansas. The Vols could finish the season anywhere from 5-3 to 3-5. Win both to go 5-3, and the best Missouri can do is 3-5 and the head-to-heads won’t even come into play. Lose both to go 3-5, and the worst Missouri can do is also 3-5, plus the Tigers will have the head-to-head advantage over the Vols.

So, win out, and the Vols will be at the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East, but lose the rest of the way and that spot will belong to Missouri.

But what happens if the Vols split the next two games? If they beat Missouri but lose to Vanderbilt, they’ll finish at 4-4. Missouri will be at 3-4 after losing to the Vols but can get to 4-4 with a win over Arkansas. But they’ll still lose the head-to-head with Tennessee. Losing to Vandy will still taste like vomit, but at least Tennessee will be atop the Second Tier.

The Vols will also finish at 4-4 if they lose to Missouri but beat Vanderbilt. But Missouri would be 3-4 after beating Tennessee and would have to lose to Arkansas for Tennessee to finish ahead of them. The only teams that have lost to Arkansas this year are Portland State and Colorado State. Draw your own conclusions.

The most likely scenario, though, includes Tennessee beating Vanderbilt and Missouri beating Arkansas, as ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 91.2% chance against Vandy and Missouri an 84.4% chance against Arkansas. Assuming the FPI is right, the SEC East’s Second Tier will come down to the winner of the Tennessee-Missouri game Saturday night. If the Vols win, they’ll be 5-3 with Missouri at 3-5. If Missouri wins, both teams will be 4-4 and the Tigers will have the tiebreaker.

So yeah, the outcome of this weekend’s game between the Vols and Tigers will almost certainly determine whether Tennessee accomplishes the preseason goal of finishing at the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East. If they lose, there’s still a small chance, but they’ll not only have to beat Vandy, Missouri will have to lose to Arkansas. I might be able to bring myself to root for pigs, but I don’t know if I can muster up the expectation that they’ll actually win.

But if the Vols beat Missouri this weekend, Tennessee will hit that goal no matter what happens next week. So let’s do that.

Go Vols. Beat Missouri.

Tennessee opened as a 4-point underdog to the Tigers this week, and it’s generally hung right around there all week, although some have it at -4.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Missouri Saturday night in Columbia? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

Vols-Tigers

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
• Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5

The Missouri scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Kentucky 20.1
• UAB 18.7

Tennessee scored 30 points against UAB and 17 against Kentucky, which puts the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri at 23.6.

Missouri’s points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23
• Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26

The Missouri scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Mississippi State 26.5
• UAB 25.5

UAB scored 7 points against the Vols, and Mississippi State got 10. Estimated points for Missouri: 8.6

Estimated score: Tennessee 23.6, Missouri 8.6

From the perspective of Missouri

Missouri’s points:

• Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 25
• Kentucky 20.1

Missouri scored only 7 points against Kentucky but 34 points against South Carolina. Throwing that in the pot together means the SPM estimates 20.9 points for Missouri against the Vols.

Tennessee’s points:

• Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Kentucky 22.1

Kentucky scored 29 points against Missouri, and South Carolina scored 14. Estimated points for Missouri: 22.2

Estimated score: Missouri 20.9, Tennessee 22.2

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 22.9, Missouri 14.7

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -8.2

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 12.7

That difference of 12.7 makes this game one of the SPM’s favorites this week.

Eyeball adjustments

UAB as a comp alarms me. Removing them from the equation from the Vols’ perspective gives the Vols 17 points and Missouri 10. That would make the final estimate Vols 19.6, Tigers 15.5.

Also, there’s a big difference between the results against the two comps used for Missouri’s perspective. South Carolina and Kentucky are the two best comparisons, but the Tigers’ results against them are wildly divergent. Is Missouri the team that beat South Carolina 34-14 early in the season at home, or is it the team that recently lost 29-7 to Kentucky on the road? The machine splits that baby, which is probably the wisest thing to do under the circumstances, but it’s also setting the stage for possibly being really wrong.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 20, Missouri 16. Even though I think the SPM is too high on the Vols in this one, I still like them to win outright as an underdog.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 4-point underdogs and you might find -4.5 somewhere. With an over/under of 45.5-46, that translates to something like Missouri 25, Tennessee 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Missouri 25-19, and gives the Vols a 38% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 41.3% chance of winning. For the record, FPI said basically the same thing about the Vols against Kentucky (42.8%), and that one was wrong.

Bottom line

The SPM and I both like the Vols to win outright as 4-point underdogs against Missouri this week. The machine is feeling good about it, but it is at odds with both Vegas and SP+.

• Vegas: Missouri 25, Tennessee 21
• SP+: Missouri 25, Tennessee 19
• SPM: Tennessee 23, Missouri 15
• Me: Tennessee 20, Missouri 16

What do y’all think?

After over three years of hiding in the shadows of Tennessee previews, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine finally stepped out into the spotlight last week, cleared its throat, and promptly threw up.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

Last week, the SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) overall, and its favorites didn’t do much better. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 6-7 (46.15%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was only 3-5 (37.50%). It’s this last group that we’ve been referring to as our “favorites” and posted for the world to see last week.

This was out of character for the favorites, though. So far this season, the favorites have been under .500 only twice, once last week and once in the second week of the season when it went 3-4. Three other times, it’s been right at .500. The other weeks: 11-4, 6-2, 5-2, 12-3, 6-5, 8-3, and 7-2. I’m calling last week stage fright.

For the season, the SPM is now 301-284 (51.45%) overall, 127-96 (56.95%) over the confidence threshold, and 73-42 (63.48%) for the favorites.

Meanwhile, the SP+ had an excellent week, finishing at 29-21-1 (58%) and is still 55% on the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?