Is there a long-term version of Tennessee & Memphis?

For an argument built around which program needs to play the other more, it sure would be a shame to see the series slip away when both teams have so much going for them.

The Vols and Tigers first met in Oklahoma City in December 1969. It was another two decades before the next meeting, and at that point Memphis was rolling: seven straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 1982-89, including a Final Four in 1985. The Vols went dancing seven of eight years from 1976-83, but Don DeVoe’s squads struck out the next five seasons until one final appearance in his tenure in 1989, the same season Tennessee and Memphis began an annual series.

Tennessee won the first one that year 76-74, and the teams traded blows over the next four games, including a Vol win in the 1990 postseason NIT. Memphis won 74-72 in Knoxville in November 1990.

And then Penny Hardaway got two shots at the Vols. Tennessee won 65-64 in Memphis in December 1991. Back in Knoxville the following season with the Tigers ranked #8:

The rivalry survived Allan Houston vs. Penny Hardaway: Memphis won the next three, then the Vols won five in a row. The Tigers claimed a two point win in December 2001.

And then the series took a break after playing every year from 1988-89 to 2001-02.

The Turn of the Century

Older fans may have different and deeper reasons that fuel this rivalry. For Tennessee fans of my generation, who watched Houston beat Penny when we were kids? The animosity revolves around the arrival of John Calipari.

Penny’s 1991-92 squad made the Elite Eight. The Tigers were back in the Sweet 16 in 1995, then bounced in the first round in 1996. And then Memphis missed the NCAA Tournament four years in a row. Calipari, he of a vacated Final Four at UMass in 1996 and 2.25 years with the New Jersey Nets, became the new head coach at Memphis for the 2000-01 season. And the rivalry was almost immediately discontinued.

While Memphis was missing the NCAA Tournament four years in a row in the late 90’s, Tennessee ascended under Jerry Green. But much of the work was being done by Kevin O’Neill’s recruits, including highly coveted point guard Tony Harris from Memphis.

Meanwhile, the rise of Tennessee football to its most dominant era in program history happened to coincide with the basketball series being played annually. The Vols and Tigers met six times in the 1980’s in football: three in Knoxville, three in Memphis. That format continued into the 90’s, with the Vols winning in 1991, 1992, and 1994 before Memphis infamously beat the Vols in 1996 (a game we talked a lot about when Tennessee lost to Georgia State). It remains the only win Memphis has ever recorded over Tennessee in football.

The series took three years off, then resumed in what looks like a two-for-one fashion: games in Knoxville in 1999 and 2001, with a return to Memphis in 2000. By that point the Vols were regularly competing for the national title, and Memphis was still mired in misery: between 1972 and 2002, the Tigers never made a bowl game.

At the turn of the century, there was little reason for Tennessee to play a 50-50 home-and-home series with Memphis in football; the Vols’ national profile made it easy to recruit in West Tennessee even without being there every few years. Meanwhile in basketball, Tennessee made the NCAA Tournament four years in a row from 1998-2001 with Tony Harris at point guard, while Memphis was absent from 1997-2002.

With Calipari eager to rebuild the Tigers and keep Tennessee out of Memphis, and Tennessee football finding little motivation to play the Tigers six times in ten years, both series took a break: three years in basketball, four years in football. In that time, Buzz Peterson’s era found the Vols on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament, Tennessee football’s ceiling was lowered a bit, and Calipari got the Tigers going again: an NIT title in 2002, back in the NCAA Tournament the next two years, and the NIT semifinals in 2005.

A deal was struck to put the basketball rivalry back on an annual basis, with home-and-home football games in 2005-06 and 2009-10. Tennessee hired Bruce Pearl. And oh boy.

As Good As It Gets?

Calipari’s distaste for this annual rivalry wasn’t built on Memphis already arriving on the national scene: when the Vols and Tigers resumed on the hardwood in January 2006, Memphis still hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since 1995. But that changed immediately: Calipari’s Tigers made two Elite Eight’s, the title game, and the Sweet 16 in the next four seasons.

Meanwhile, Pearl resurrected Tennessee’s program immediately. Those first three games are memorable to this day: Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table in 2006, Chris Lofton turning in the single best performance I’ve ever seen from a Tennessee player in 2007:

…and, of course, 1 vs 2 in 2008:

Calipari’s Tigers won by two the following year in Knoxville, then he walked through that door to Lexington, Kentucky. At both Memphis and Kentucky, Calipari has been a vocal champion of playing anyone, anytime, anywhere…except, apparently, the Vols while at Memphis.

Interestingly, Calipari built a national power those last four years at Memphis with guys like Robert Dozier (Georgia), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Detroit), Joey Dorsey (Baltimore), Shawn Taggart (Richmond), Derrick Rose (Chicago), and Tyreke Evans (Pennsylvania). While the Tigers did have high-value recruits like Willie Kemp from Bolivar on their roster, most of their success came from recruiting on the national stage.

Meanwhile, Tennessee rose to power under Bruce Pearl during the same span with Memphis-area products Dane Bradshaw, Wayne Chism, and J.P. Prince.

The Fadeaway

The Vols beat Memphis by 20 in Pearl’s final season, then lost three straight before the contract was up, including a memorable double overtime affair in Maui in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. In seven seasons Josh Pastner made the NCAA Tournament four times, but never got out of the first weekend. The Vols made the Sweet 16 from Dayton in Cuonzo Martin’s final season, their only appearance in the tournament’s second weekend between the Elite Eight to open the decade and last season.

In football, Lane Kiffin’s Vols doubled-up Memphis 56-28 in 2009, then Tyler Bray got his first career start and win at Memphis in 2010, the beginning of a four-game winning streak to get the Vols bowl eligible.

Tommy West got the Tigers bowl eligible five out of six years from 2003-08, including a 9-4 season in 2003, but flamed out at 2-10 in 2009.

The decade since the last football meeting between the two schools has seen a shocking reversal of fortune. Justin Fuente’s arrival on the banks of the Mississippi in 2012 saw the Tigers go 4-8 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, then rocket to a 10-3 finish in 2014 and a #25 final ranking. The Tigers went 9-4 the following season, Fuente went to Virginia Tech, and Mike Norvell picked up right where he left off: 8-5, 10-3 with a ranked finish, 8-6, and now 12-1 this season with the coveted New Year’s Six appearance in the Cotton Bowl.

Here’s a list of the other bowl games in the history of Memphis football: Burley, Pasadena (not Rose), New Orleans, GMAC, Motor City, New Orleans, St. Petersburg, Miami Beach, Birmingham, Boca Raton, Liberty, Birmingham.

While the Tigers rose, Tennessee wandered through the wilderness. Since 2014, Memphis is 57-22; the Vols are 41-34.

Meanwhile in basketball, Pastner’s move to Georgia Tech brought two tumultuous years of Tubby Smith and no NCAA or NIT appearances. Tennessee watched Cuonzo Martin leave for California, then hired Donnie Tyndall before firing him with cause after one season, then went 15-19 and 16-16 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons.

The Return

And then Memphis hired Penny Hardaway, and what we hoped we were getting from Rick Barnes arrived in full.

The Vols went 26-9 and won the SEC in 2018, then 31-6 including a month at #1 last season. Memphis went 22-14 and made the NIT last season, then Hardaway signed the nation’s number one recruiting class, including two four-stars and a five-star from Memphis. Two of those players, including James Wiseman, played for Hardaway at Memphis East.

So when this series was renewed last season as a three-year deal – Memphis, Knoxville, and next year in Nashville for the first time – it was unique in a couple of ways. One, there’s no football in the contract. Memphis has a home-and-home with Mississippi State and a two-for-one with Arkansas in the coming decade, but no Vols on the horizon.

But two, when the series renewed last December, balled fists or no…both the Tennessee and Memphis programs were on better footing than in 1989 or, as far as we knew at the time, 2006.

Pearl and Calipari were both on their way to great things in that initial meeting now 14 years ago. But we couldn’t be sure of either at the time. This time, the Vols have been one of the best teams in college basketball over the last two seasons and show no signs of leaving the Top 25, and Memphis has the nation’s best recruiting class.

I don’t know what Penny’s ambitions are – stay at Memphis forever, get to the NBA, or somewhere between – but it’s clear he can recruit at the level it takes to get Memphis where it needs to go. And it’s clear Rick Barnes can do the same at Tennessee, currently holding the nation’s #4 recruiting class for 2020 with one mid-state Tennessean and two others from Florida and Virginia. Jaden Springer chose the Vols over the Tigers.

When Barnes was asked this week about the future of the series beyond next year’s game in Nashville, he said:

“I think it’s been good for everybody…I think it will be good next year for us in Nashville. As your schedule opportunities come up, you’ve got to look at it and evaluate it.”

“You’re trying to get me to talk about things,” Barnes said. “Really, I don’t think about that. I told you, we’re going to build a schedule based on where and what we think is best. That’s all I can answer.”

And that’s the rub: where and what we think is best.

When Calipari took the Memphis job, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business. Not because of what Memphis was at the time, or what Tennessee was, but because of who he was trying to get Memphis to be. When the series did resume in 2006, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business because the Vols had struggled under Buzz Peterson and Memphis was looking to level up.

This notion that Tennessee has more to gain from playing Memphis than the other way around has always been at the heart of the matter for me, especially as Tennessee’s national profile rose under Pearl. The Tigers have spent the last 25 years in Conference USA and the American. In no individual season did it ever hurt their strength of schedule to play the Vols; far more often than not, it helped. Memphis got where they were going under Calipari by recruiting nationally, the Vols in part under Pearl by recruiting well in-state. Once Calipari left, the question could’ve been easily asked in reverse.

But now, having spent most of this decade apart, both Tennessee and Memphis are on excellent footing relative to both their expectations and recent history. For maybe the first time, we don’t have to have this argument about who benefits more.

It would be quite an opportunity missed, then, if both schools decide not to run it back after next season.

Tennessee-Memphis four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game this Saturday against the Memphis Tigers. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:

Summary and Score Prediction

Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Protect the ball.
  2. Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
  3. Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.

My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

  • Tennessee 50.6 (No. 131)
  • Memphis 52.2 (No. 81)

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Conclusion: Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Memphis is most like Florida State at shooting the ball. They’re quite a bit better than the Vols.

Turnover %

  • Tennessee 20.3 (No. 218)
  • Memphis 19.7 (No. 187)

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Conclusion: Neither team is especially good at protecting the ball, but Memphis is better. Among the Vols’ prior opponents, they’re most like VCU and Florida State.

Offensive Rebound %

  • Tennessee 32.3 (No. 70)
  • Memphis 34.8 (No. 31)

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Conclusion: Memphis will be the best-rebounding team the Vols have played to date. Fortunately, Tennessee’s no slouch in this category, either.

Free Throw Rate

  • Tennessee 40 (No. 42)
  • Memphis 44.9 (No. 6)

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Conclusion: Again, Memphis will be the best team the Vols have played when it comes to getting to the free-throw line. They compare best to Murray State at this point among prior Vols’ opponents. Tennessee is no slouch in this category, but Memphis appears to be clearly better at this point.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 50.6 (No. 131), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.5 (No. 12).

When Memphis has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 52.2 (No. 81), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.1 (No. 5).

Conclusions

Both teams are going to make it more difficult than usual for the other to shoot well.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee is still struggling with a turnover % of 20.3 (No. 218). The Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23.3 (No. 41).

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 187), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 142).

Conclusions

Expect some frustration at Tennessee’s tendency to turn the ball over because it will be exacerbated by Memphis’ better-than-most ability to force turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 70), and Memphis’ defense in that category is 31.1 (No. 271).

When Memphis has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 34.8 (No. 31), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 22.6 (No. 14).

Conclusions

The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding under their own basket, largely because the Tigers aren’t very good there. Memphis is better on their own side of the court, but the Vols still have an advantage on that end. Bottom line: The Vols have an advantage rebounding the ball.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 40 (No. 42), while Memphis’ defense against that is 35.3 (No. 248).

When Memphis has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 44.9 (No. 6), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 84).

Conclusions

Both teams know how to get to the line. Memphis is marginally better at it than Tennessee, but Tennessee is much better at keeping their opponents off the line. Here’s to hoping that that translates into more trips for the Vols.

Summary and Score Prediction

Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Protect the ball.
  2. Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
  3. Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.

My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72

Go Vols.

Looking at Potential DBs to Fill the Class

With the loss of JUCO Art Green and the potential flip of Mordecai McDaniel to Florida (which would NOT be mutual), what was once a class of three DBs for Tennessee is down to two and possibly only one (stud S/CB Keshawn Lawrence).  And despite having a solid group of young players on the roster, with the amount of Nickel and even Dime defense that Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley like to play, there is always going to be a need for talented bodies there.   Could the Vols survive a cycle with only Lawrence as a DB signee?  Probably.  Especially since there are a handful of other current commitments who could also project to the secondary.  Jimmy Calloway, who’s listed as a WR and is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, was being recruited by Oklahoma as a DB (notably, Florida is also trying to flip him, and he is still undecided as to whether he will sign next week or not).  Tamarion McDonald, part of the Whitehaven Trio, has played all over the field throughout his high school career and is for sure a candidate to play the Nickel position, where his combination of coverage skills and hitting ability would be a perfect fit should he not grow into a LB.  That said, it does seem like the Vols are at least giving themselves options should they want and/or need to add at least one more DB.  Tennessee will have four DBs on campus this weekend, with a fifth prospect still lingering.

Emmanuel Appiah is a JUCO early enrollee originally from New Jersey.  He’s got offers from Auburn and Tennessee and officially visited the Tigers for the Iron Bowl weekend.  He had a big sophomore season with eight INTs, and at 6’0 with good length he’s got the requisite size for a Pruitt DB.  Notably, he is good friends with Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano.  Likely a guy who can step in and help at least rotationally right away, it remains unclear where he is on both Auburn’s and Tennessee’s board.

Decamerion Richardson is an intriguing option at CB from Bossier City, LA.  He’s a LONG 6’2 and a track star – he ran a 10.75 100M and 21.63 200M along with a high jump of 6’0, good for 2nd, 3rd and 2nd respectively in the state of LA – yet another prospect with the classic Pruitt DB makeup .  A bit of a late bloomer, once Richardson’s senior tape got out  – he ended up receiving All District honors as both 1st Team RB and DB – he quickly received offers from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State (where he OV’d this past weekend).  He liked his visit to Starkville quite a bit, so the Vols could have a fight on their hands should they decide to truly engage. 

Doneiko Slaughter is an Arizona State commitment from Roswell, GA outside of Atlanta.  More of a S/Nickel prospect than a Cornerback, Slaughter’s calling card is his combo of good if not elite speed (10.88 100M and a 4.65 40) and real physicality.  He just took an OV to Miami, so clearly his commitment is soft, so if the Vols push they likely can land him.  A “baller” according to the esteemed Chad Simmons of Rivals, Slaughter plays with an edge that you know Pruitt loves.

Donovan Kaufman is, like Richardson, a Coach David YAC Johnson special from Louisiana.  A Vanderbilt commitment, Kaufman is very likely to end up somewhere much better than West End.  Speaking of ballers, Kaufman did it all for his state championship Archbishop Rummel team this season, making 112 tackles, scoring six touchdowns, forcing six fumbles, and registering eight sacks and four INTs in 13 games.  He carried the ball from the Wildcat position and returned kicks as well.  Those stats, and the way he jumps out on film, make the Honey Badger comparisons all too easy for the New Orleans native.  Kaufman just received an offer from new FSU coach Mike Norvell, who recruited Louisiana very well at Memphis and had tried with Kaufman while with the Tigers, and is now receiving significant interest from LSU (who is, as everyone knows, very short on numbers).   Kaufman stands out from the rest of this list because he is on the shorter end at 5’9, but he’s a playmaker and a winner, two things Pruitt covets at all positions. 

Kendall Dennis is a familiar name to many Vol fans as he visited Knoxville twice over the summer.  The 4-star Florida native has been thought to be an Auburn lean for quite a while, but a late Clemson offer threw a monkey wrench into his recruitment.  However, Clemson has since decided to move on a different DB for their final spot at the position, leaving Dennis in a bit of limbo.  Oklahoma, where he took an OV recently, is still an option, and Nebraska is in the same boat. USF, who’s new coach is former Clemson assistant Jeff Scott, could also get involved.  While Tennessee isn’t currently scheduled to receive an OV this weekend, the Vols were included in his Top 5 this past week and could be a player if things break a certain way for both parties.  That will be one to watch.

Whether the Vols have to fill one or two spots in the defensive backfield in this class remains to be seen, but Pruitt and staff have done a tremendous job setting themselves up with a plethora of talented prospects to choose from whatever decision they make.  This weekend will go a long way for both Tennessee and the respective prospects in determining which direction the Vols go, but it seems hard for them to go wrong.

Nine Days Out – Recruiting Musings

Hard to overstate how big of a commitment DL Omari Thomas is for Tennessee.  Thomas is a true blue chip prospect, with the kind of size and talent that requires no explanation.  With the Vols major need for DL in this class, particularly as one looks to 2021 and beyond, Thomas is a cornerstone player for the future of the Vol defense.  And as much as landing the Whitehaven Trio was big in its own right, Thomas represents another bigtime recruiting win against elite programs like Alabama and such, while also further cementing Tennessee as the dominant recruiting power in Memphis under Coach Jeremy Pruitt. 

Thomas’s high school teammate RB Jabari Small is set to commit tomorrow, and all signs point to him continuing Tennessee’s sweep of Memphis.  In this writer’s opinion Small profiles as a very capable SEC back, with better-than-you-might-think size (5’11, 190) and a combination of good if not great speed and outstanding quickness, agility, and short-area moves.  Very much in the mold of Eric Gray, Small is a great complement to Tennessee’s other RB commitment Tee Hodge, playing the classic Lightning role to Hodge’s Thunder.  Smalls was, along with Thomas, a finalist for Tennessee’s Mr. Football, and finished his senior season with 29 TDs and just under 2,000 rushing+receiving yards.  His final game was a 4 TD performance in the Tennessee high school playoffs against Ensworth and their P5-littered defense. 

I don’t think it’s coincidental that the Tennessee smoke coming out of Morven Joseph’s OV to Florida on Sunday came within hours of Vol commitment Jimari Butler telling Rivals that he was essentially decommitting from Tennessee.  The guess here is that the Tennessee staff they said something to the effect of “If you’re taking other visits we can’t hold your spot.” Butler then went to Nebraska this past weekend and was then his spot was taken.  Butler is certainly a good looking prospect with outstanding upside – we’ve said as much here and here – but it’s hard to compare him to Joseph and not come away feeling like the Vols would be well off with that swap.  Joseph’s clearly got a more refined game, and while he’s not go Butler’s physical size he’s far from small at 6’3 220.  And there’s a reason he got springtime offers from the likes of Alabama and Auburn and that his other finalist is Florida – three teams known for dominant pass rushers.  With word that Pruitt and his staff are still pushing to flip BJ Ojulari back from LSU, things at Edge Rusher could end up finishing better than anyone could have ever imagined and the Vols will be SET there for a few years.

Tennessee looks like it’s in really good shape for TCU QB/ATH commitment Jimmy Holiday from Madison, MS, especially after wowing him by bringing the entire offensive staff on his inhome visit.  Ranked by 247 as the 1,389th (!!!) prospect in the class and the 33rd player in Mississippi, the forecast here is that Holiday will skyrocket up the rankings after this coming AL/MS All-Star Game week.  Holiday is simply electric with the ball in his hands and his film shows some modicum of passing ability.  A lot this week could depend on which position(s) he practices at, but expect to hear rave reviews from national writers coming out of Hattiesburg.

Tennessee’s staff could not have set this weekend up more perfectly.  Days before the Early Signing Period begins, the Vols will have a TON of top talent on campus.  And not only that, the recruits will be present for what should be a wild and raucous atmosphere in Thompson Boiling Arena as Rick Barnes’s squad dominates the Memphis Tigers.  Below are the recruits set to officially visit:

TE Darnell Washington

WR Ramon Henderson*

WR Corey Wren

RB Zaquandre White (JUCO)

ILB Desmond Tisdol

ILB Vai Kaho

OLB Jaqwondis Burns*

DB Emmanuel Appiah (JUCO)

DB Donovan Kaufman

DB Decamerion Richardson

DB Doneiko Slaughter

* tentative

We made the case for oversigning last week, simply based on the sheer amount of top talent that Tennessee could very, very realistically land were numbers not an issue.  With now eight spots remaining pending any further decommitments or scholarship gymnastics, Tennessee’s board is basically a decision tree of prospects.  For example:

Are you holding a spot for Darnell Washington?  If Yes, you now have seven spots.  If no, or if you’re told he’s not coming, you’re back to eight

Do you land Tyler Baron?  Do you also land Octavius Oxendine?  If Yes to both, do you take Reginald Perry? 

Are you holding a spot in February for Jay Hardy?  What if he signs with Auburn next week?  Either way, what does that do for Perry?

Do you take Vai Kaho, or Desmond Tisdol, or both ILBs?

If you land Morven Joseph at Edge, do you take another?  Is Khari Coleman that guy, or does it have to be Ojulari?

Do you think you need another DB?  Is Mordecai McDaniel solid anyway, or is a flip to Florida in the works?  If either one is Yes, what’s the order of your list?

Assuming you land Small tomorrow, do can you possibly take a 3rd RB (White, or even Len’neth Whitehead)?

If you land Holiday, is he your 2nd QB or your 4th WR to go with Jalin Hyatt, Jimmy Calloway and Darion Williamson?  If he’s a QB, does that open 1-2 spots for Henderson and Wren?  If there’s only one more, who do you prioritize?

And finally, what do you do if Tate Ratledge gives you an indication that he might flip?  What about if you have to wait to February?  Who loses their spot from the list above?

For the most part these are all good problems to have.  The Vols are deep in the mix with upwards of 20 prospects, each of whom would upgrade the overall talent level on Tennessee’s roster at their respective positions, and some of them are no-brainer, blue chip guys for whom the Vols are recruiting against some of the top programs in the country.  Pruitt and his staff are showing no signs of slowing down to set themselves up in the best position possible with the deepest and most talented board they can get.  The next, and maybe most important step, will be to read the board correctly and manage things such that they land as many of the players THEY WANT as they can. 

GRT Bowl Pick ‘Em

Our 2019-20 Bowl Pick ‘Em is now open at Fun Office Pools. If you played with us last year, or in this year’s regular season picks contest, you should’ve received an email this morning with an invitation to join, or you can sign up directly at Fun Office Pools. As always, it’s free to play.

And as always, we use confidence points: make your picks straight up in each of the 40 bowl games, including the playoffs, then assign a point value to each contest: 40 points for the outcome you’re most confident in, one point for the outcome you’re least confident in, etc.

Congrats to PAVol for winning our season-long picks contest, going 219-71 straight up and winning by two confidence points over 290 games!

The bowl fun starts December 20, but the pool is open now. Our old friends at Banner Society rank the Gator Bowl seventh in their watchability ratings in today’s Read Option newsletter.

The Jim Chaney Effect: Vols get better, Bulldogs get worse

Last January, we made a list of reasons that Jeremy Pruitt hiring Jim Chaney away from Georgia was a very good thing. Chaney’s offenses were incredibly and consistently productive, he was a good fit with Pruitt and Knoxville, he had decades of experience, and he seemed to be the perfect combination of both excellence and stability.

One of the biggest reasons we were juiced about the hire, though, was the notion that it not only made Tennessee better, it made Georgia worse.

Well, is it true? Here is a comparison of Tennessee’s offensive stats from the end of the 2018 regular season to the end of the 2019 regular season:

Helping yourself

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Let’s start with the concession that not everything improved. The quarterbacks threw more interceptions (11 this year to 5 last year) and the offense got worse in the red zone this season. And despite any improvement in other areas, you can’t really say that the offense is humming.

But there was improvement in many offensive categories. Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and Rushing Offense all improved. The offense was better on first downs and more explosive in the passing game, and it was much better on third down this year than last. The biggest improvement came in keeping guys from getting tackled behind their own line of scrimmage.

If that doesn’t really move the needle for you, consider this: The Jim Chaney Effect doesn’t really show up until his second season behind the wheel.

As Will wrote in our 2019 Vols magazine, Chaney’s offense at Georgia in 2016 ranked only 74th in SP+, averaging 5.44 yards per play and 24.5 points per game. For the sake of comparison, his 2019 offense at Tennessee averaged 4.38 yards per play and 24.3 points per game. Worse on yards, about the same on points.

His 2017 offense at Georgia, though, climbed all the way to 7th in SP+ (6.7 yards per play and 35.4 points per game), and then went to 3rd in SP+ in 2018 with 7.05 yards per play and 37.9 points per game.

Here’s a tweet to prove it:

Bottom line, Tennessee’s offense has already improved in Jim Chaney’s first year, and it’s not at all unreasonable for Vols fans to expect to see a huge improvement in 2020.

Hurting your rival

What about Georgia? Your eyeballs are insisting that the Bulldogs missed Chaney something terrible this year. The numbers concur:

The 2019 Bulldogs’ offense was fine protecting the quarterback and the line of scrimmage and even held steady in the red zone. But it was worse at everything else. The Bulldogs went from 18th to 60th in Total Offense, from 14th to 51st in Scoring Offense, and from 16th to 37th in Rushing Offense even though they still had Deandre Swift and a stable of studs. The Passing Offense wasn’t needed in 2018, and the numbers got no better this year when it was.

Yes, the Georgia Bulldogs’ offense got dramatically worse this year, and it’s because Jim Chaney left for Tennessee.

Sam wins Week 15 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, PAVolFan wins the season

Congratulations to Sam, who finished first in Week 15 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em with a record of 9-1 and 53 confidence points.

I went all in on a couple of upsets to sprint to the finish line and fell on my face instead. I should have known about that UAB game — duh — but I have to admit that LSU’s domination of Georgia really took me by surprise. I think Jim Chaney matters, y’all.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 Sam 9-1 53 20-29
2 Phonies 8-2 52 20-30**
2 LuckyGuess 9-1 52 20-31
2 joeb_1 9-1 52 23-28
2 Jahiegel 8-2 52 26-31
2 alanmar 9-1 52 27-38
2 hounddog3 8-2 52 32-33
8 rollervol 9-1 51 17-27**
8 wedflatrock 8-2 51 20-31
8 GeorgeMonkey 8-2 51 20-35
8 bluelite 8-2 51 24-31
8 jfarrar90 8-2 51 27-31
8 Hjohn 8-2 51 28-31
8 UTSeven 8-2 51 24-40
15 corn from a jar 8-2 50 14-35**
15 ctull 8-2 50 17-28
15 patmd 8-2 50 17-28
15 rsbrooks25 8-2 50 18-35
15 DinnerJacket 8-2 50 13-28
15 Anaconda 8-2 50 27-32
15 boro wvvol 8-2 50 28-31
15 vols95 8-2 50 21-42
15 PAVolFan 8-2 50 28-38
24 cnyvol 8-2 49 20-24**
24 birdjam 8-2 49 21-23
24 keepontruckin 7-3 49 20-31
24 PensacolaVolFan 8-2 49 10-30
24 Crusher 8-2 49 31-34
24 Hixson Vol1 8-2 49 23-44
30 Wilk21 9-1 48 14-42
31 TennVol95 in 3D! 7-3 47 21-27**
31 Neil Neisner 7-3 47 14-24
31 Raven17 7-3 47 17-42
34 C_hawkfan 8-2 46 27-28**
34 ltvol99 8-2 46 24-41
34 trdlgmsr 7-3 46 0-0
37 memphispete 7-3 44 24-35**
37 TennRebel 6-4 44 27-24
39 HUTCH 8-2 43 13-48
40 tbone 6-4 42 24-31
41 mmmjtx 6-4 41 21-24**
41 ddayvolsfan 7-3 41 24-34
41 claireb7tx 6-4 41 28-35
41 Rossboro 6-4 41 0-0
45 Harley 7-3 39 17-31
46 Timbuktu126 7-3 37 14-17
47 Will Shelton 6-4 35 27-24
48 Bulldog 85 4-6 33 0-0
49 Joel @ GRT 6-4 32 24-21
50 ga26engr 5-5 31 34-32
51 mariettavol 1-9 10 -
52 Knottfair 0-10 9 -
52 Aaron Birkholz 0-10 9 -
52 mmb61 0-10 9 -
52 UTVols18 0-10 9 -
52 Salty Seth 0-10 9 -
52 Teri28 0-10 9 -
52 tpi 0-10 9 -
52 ChuckieTVol 0-10 9 -
52 Jayyyy 0-10 9 -
52 aaron217 0-10 9 -
52 If you ain’t first you’re 0-10 9 -
52 tallahasseevol 0-10 9 -
52 dgibbs 0-10 9 -
52 waltsspac 0-10 9 -
52 Willewillm 0-10 9 -
52 daetilus 0-10 9 -
52 Orange Swarm 0-10 9 -
52 Dmorton 0-10 9 -
52 RockyPopPicks 0-10 9 -
52 VillaVol 0-10 9 -
52 Jrstep 0-10 9 -
52 ed75 0-10 9 -
52 jeremy.waldroop 0-10 9 -
52 rockytopinKy 0-10 9 -
52 OriginalVol1814 0-10 9 -
52 BristVol 0-10 9 -
52 orange_devil87 0-10 9 -
52 Orange On Orange 0-10 9 -
52 VFL49er 0-10 9 -
52 doritoscowboy 0-10 9 -
52 ddutcher 0-10 9 -
52 BZACHARY 0-10 9 -
52 Caban Greys 0-10 9 -
52 cactusvol 0-10 9 -
52 Techboy 0-10 9 -
52 JLPasour 0-10 9 -
52 waitwhereami 0-10 9 -
52 Displaced_Vol_Fan 0-10 9 -

Final results for the 2019 season

And high five to PAVolFan, who holds on to win the season overall with a record of 219-71 and 2,465 confidence points. Everybody say something nice about him.

Here are the full final standings:

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 PAVolFan 219-71 75.52 2465
2 wedflatrock 216-74 74.48 2463
3 birdjam 216-74 74.48 2460
4 GeorgeMonkey 211-79 72.76 2447
5 corn from a jar 212-78 73.10 2442
6 memphispete 214-76 73.79 2425
7 LuckyGuess 209-81 72.07 2422
8 joeb_1 207-83 71.38 2401
8 C_hawkfan 222-68 76.55 2401
10 Hixson Vol1 216-74 74.48 2395
11 jfarrar90 209-81 72.07 2394
12 hounddog3 209-81 72.07 2388
13 UTSeven 201-89 69.31 2378
14 cnyvol 211-79 72.76 2366
15 trdlgmsr 204-86 70.34 2365
16 Joel @ GRT 211-79 72.76 2363
17 Anaconda 198-92 68.28 2362
18 Phonies 205-85 70.69 2351
18 boro wvvol 204-86 70.34 2351
20 Displaced_Vol_Fan 200-90 68.97 2344
21 alanmar 211-79 72.76 2339
22 Raven17 198-92 68.28 2335
23 TennRebel 200-90 68.97 2330
24 DinnerJacket 203-87 70.00 2326
25 Rossboro 200-90 68.97 2324
26 daetilus 196-94 67.59 2321
27 Bulldog 85 201-89 69.31 2318
28 mmmjtx 204-86 70.34 2316
29 ChuckieTVol 203-87 70.00 2314
30 keepontruckin 195-95 67.24 2313
31 Sam 208-82 71.72 2310
32 Harley 201-89 69.31 2291
33 Crusher 205-85 70.69 2288
34 Jahiegel 199-91 68.62 2274
34 ltvol99 211-79 72.76 2274
36 ga26engr 203-87 70.00 2264
37 ctull 192-98 66.21 2257
37 claireb7tx 199-91 68.62 2257
39 rsbrooks25 207-83 71.38 2230
40 ddayvolsfan 201-89 69.31 2207
41 tbone 191-99 65.86 2203
42 doritoscowboy 191-99 65.86 2200
43 rollervol 201-89 69.31 2196
44 bluelite 191-99 65.86 2190
45 TennVol95 in 3D! 188-102 64.83 2187
46 Wilk21 191-99 65.86 2170
47 Neil Neisner 184-106 63.45 2145
48 HUTCH 190-100 65.52 2135
49 Jayyyy 158-132 54.48 2133
50 Hjohn 185-105 63.79 2123
51 patmd 190-100 65.52 2066
52 Timbuktu126 172-118 59.31 2062
52 Orange On Orange 146-144 50.34 2062
54 mariettavol 156-134 53.79 2058
55 vols95 154-136 53.10 2047
56 PensacolaVolFan 184-106 63.45 2030
57 waitwhereami 136-154 46.90 2004
58 Knottfair 132-158 45.52 1999
59 dgibbs 136-154 46.90 1978
60 jeremy.waldroop 108-182 37.24 1896
61 VillaVol 103-187 35.52 1735
62 rockytopinKy 95-195 32.76 1730
63 Orange Swarm 85-205 29.31 1715
64 Will Shelton 58-232 20.00 1628
65 OriginalVol1814 56-234 19.31 1600
66 aaron217 63-227 21.72 1595
67 BZACHARY 74-216 25.52 1592
68 tpi 54-236 18.62 1537
69 RockyPopPicks 33-257 11.38 1530
70 Willewillm 25-265 8.62 1443
71 Jrstep 34-256 11.72 1437
72 BristVol 26-264 8.97 1418
73 Dmorton 27-263 9.31 1415
74 Caban Greys 13-277 4.48 1405
75 tallahasseevol 14-276 4.83 1395
76 orange_devil87 15-275 5.17 1393
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-277 4.48 1393
76 JLPasour 14-276 4.83 1393
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-277 4.48 1384
80 ed75 13-277 4.48 1380
81 Salty Seth 12-278 4.14 1370
82 Techboy 11-279 3.79 1369
83 waltsspac 11-279 3.79 1366
84 cactusvol 12-278 4.14 1360
85 VFL49er 4-286 1.38 1309
86 Teri28 5-285 1.72 1262
87 UTVols18 0-290 0.00 1261
87 ddutcher 0-290 0.00 1261
87 mmb61 0-290 0.00 1261

Will will be setting up the 2019 GRT Bowl Pick ‘Em Contest soon, which I am going to dominate. You’ve been warned.

Long Road, Right Destination: Vols in the Gator Bowl

(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)

Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.

That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.

And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1203789190325919744

Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:

The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.

It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.

The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.

But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.

Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.

On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.

Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.

It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.

And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.

See you in the new year.

Tennessee Football: Why Where We Are Feels Different

With apologies to Peaches & Herb, the theme to Tennessee’s 2019 football season could be sung to the tune of the duo’s “Reunited” song:

“Me-di-oc-re and it feels so gooooooood!”

Indeed, rarely has a season so far below UT’s lofty historical standards felt like such a step forward. The Vols are 7-5 and likely headed either to Jacksonville’s Gator Bowl or Nashville’s Music City Bowl, but the excitement buzzing around the fan base would make you think the Vols leapt to 9-3 in Jeremy Pruitt’s second full season.

Part of the reason, of course, is UT actually SHOULD BE 9-3, had it not been for a debacle of a season-opening loss to Georgia State that was arguably the worst in program history and another sleepwalking fest that ended with Alontae Taylor getting lost against BYU on a prayer pass, sending a game into overtime the Vols ultimately lost and fell to 0-2. (It’s a start that’s keeping a lot of us from jumping 100 percent on board, too…)

Part of the reason is the Vols rallying to win five consecutive games to end the season and six of their final seven, with the only setback being a referee-aided, competitive loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Both of those are good enough reasons to be okay with a Season 2 Step Forward. But here’s the real reason we all should be cautiously optimistic:

The development is real.

Not since the strides in Lane Kiffin’s lone 2009 season looked so much more promising for the future than the growth the Vols have witnessed this year. Not only were there upperclassmen who’ve shown no signs of life blossom into difference-makers as the season matured, the freshman class has produced arguably more impact guys than any since Butch Jones’ 2014 class. That group of players was loaded, though it largely fell apart throughout his tenure, leading to guys leaving, getting injured or failing to develop.

Could those things happen under Pruitt? Sure. We’re not fortune tellers, after all. But the improvement of the upperclassmen this year is an indicator it won’t happen. He was a proven developer of players as a coordinator during successful stops at Alabama, Florida State and Georgia, and he has surrounded himself with expensive assistants who’ve had success at multiple stops, as well. Those who aren’t producing in the coaching ranks or in recruiting are getting demoted or heading elsewhere.

Pruitt seems determined to make this work, and athletic director Phil Fulmer is giving him the resources with which to work.

When you combine the development with the talent Pruitt has been able to compile, that could be a winning formula for the Vols to get “back,” even though it’s certainly premature to say they’re “back” right now. A stellar end to the 2020 recruiting class is necessary, and another step forward next year could go a long way in solidifying Tennessee’s return. All the Vols did, really, this year is re-emerge ahead of several mediocre-to-bad programs they’ve always been better than. So, while that was a necessary step, it does nothing to help you gain ground on the Alabamas, Georgias and Floridas of the world.

That comes later. For now, we have to look at the overall ’19 body of work and try to glean reasons for excitement. Here are a few:

  1. Nigel Warrior’s turnaround: Just how remarkable was the Tennessee senior safety’s season? He went from being a maligned player whose career was written off as late as this year’s Florida game to being named a Pro Football Focus Honorable Mention All-American. Pruitt is known for developing defensive backs, and that’s DC Derrick Ansley’s specialty, too. The light came on in a big way for Warrior, and as we saw positives from other safeties like true freshman Jaylen “Tank” McCullough and Theo Jackson, there’s plenty of reason for excitement moving forward. Toss in Shawn Shamburger going from the doghouse to the penthouse, and it’s obvious the Vols can generate some quality burn out of guys who looked like burned scholarships. Did you ever think a guy like, say, Kenneth George Jr. would blossom into a quality SEC cornerback who shut receivers down at times? Me neither. But he has. That’s coaching and development, folks.
  2. The Best Got Better: Warrior is just the poster child for improvement, but one thing to look at as another positive is how much Tennessee’s top-echelon players carried this year’s team. Does it suck they’ll be gone next year? Yes. But some of the Jones recruits who were big parts of bad teams got to be big parts of better teams this year, and they earned our adoration in the process. Jauan Jennings came back from injuries and even being off the team to become near-immortal, Daniel Bituli was a hard-hitting star all year, Marquez Callaway made big play after big play, Darrell Taylor was among the SEC’s sack leaders, and Trey Smith got a huge assist from UT’s medical staff to return from his blood clots issue and become one of the league’s top offensive linemen. You can say all these guys were recruits of the previous regime and try not to give the Pruitt staff credit for this, but this group went from being on a team full of problems to part of a solution. They got to go out winners.
  3. A Rejuvenated Rush: The numbers aren’t a ton different from a season ago, but the Vols went from 11th in the league with 25 sacks in 2018 to fourth with 30 sacks this year. In scoring defense, UT went from 12th (27.9) a season ago to seventh this year (21.7). But over the last half of the season, those numbers soared. Did the competition worsen? Yes, but Alabama’s competition was awful all year and the Tide don’t have any asterisks by their name, huh? If you can’t get excited about what Tennessee did to generate a pass rush this year, you don’t know football. It’s still not good enough, but it got much, much better. Besides Taylor, Pruitt seemed to dial up that Shamburger corner blitz at opportune times all season. Then, you’ve got guys like Kivon Bennett and Deandre Johnson, who blossomed into excellent situational players for UT. When you add elite freshmen like Quavaris Crouch and Roman Harrison and their potential to get after the quarterback, you’ve got reasons to be excited about the future. Beyond those guys, there appear to be quality players across the DL with the development of players such as Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kurott Garland, John Mincey, and LaTrell Bumphus. If Greg Emerson and Elijah Simmons can develop, along with perhaps Kingston Harris, Tennessee could have the makings of a deep, versatile defensive line that can get after QBs from all angles.
  4. A Trench We Can All Dig: A year ago, I wanted to fire offensive line coach Will Friend. There. I said it. This year, the unit showed signs of life, improving in run blocking throughout the season despite lacking consistency. The group was pretty strong pass-blocking for the majority of the season, despite nearly getting Brian Maurer killed. Darnell Wright and Wanya Morris had growing pains, but they also showed flashes of the cornerstones they’re expected to be. Smith likely won’t return, but if he does, Tennessee could have one of the SEC’s top three lines next year. Brandon Kennedy getting a sixth year of eligibility would be massive, too. K’Rojhn Calbert was a stalwart at times this year, and the freshman duo of Chris Akporghene and Jackson Lampley have bright futures, too. UT has a bunch of potential road-grading maulers on the line, and this was a nice step-forward year. The group still has a ways to go.
  5. Help is on the Way: It’s easy to forget Tennessee’s best defensive lineman (Emmit Gooden) was lost for the year before the season started and Aubrey Solomon battled injuries all year but has another season of eligibility. There also are reports DeAngelo Gibbs (a Georgia transfer) was a terror to guard as a receiver this year playing against the scout team. With Jennings and Calloway gone, Gibbs should have a huge role as a redshirt junior. Speaking of redshirts, Brandon Johnson has another season after redshirting and delaying his senior year until next season when he can be a big factor. Could Pruitt be recruiting a bit better from a stars standpoint? Yeah, and I wish he’d do a little better instate. But you can’t fault the guy’s identification of quality players. Another Pruitt class will go a long way in getting “his” players in there, guys with attributes and skill sets he believes he can develop.
  6. So Many Potential Stars: How long has it been since Tennessee had a freshman linebacker as elite as Henry To’oto’o? Is he the best first-year ‘backer ever? Better than A.J. Johnson and Curt Maggitt? Better than Jerod Mayo? He may be. There’s no doubt he’ll be calling the defense next year, and he looks like a three-year player early on. Throw in Crouch and Harrison, and that’s a trio of difference-makers on the second level. Eric Gray showed everybody what he can do against Vanderbilt, and he has the type of speed and field vision you cannot teach. All he needs is an opportunity and an offensive line, and there are reasons to believe he’s going to have both. Wright and Morris are going to be special along the offensive front, even if both had freshman blunders. McCullough and Warren Burrell are going to be dynamic defensive backs. Maurer was going to be the future and the present at quarterback until he wasn’t, but there are certainly some moldable traits for the first-year signal-caller, and the future is bright, especially when the competition improves. There are others with plenty of potential, too.

When you look at Tennessee’s roster, there are still holes. But there are also bright spots of players who showed glimpses of potential. Are they role players, or can Pruitt and Co. build them into SEC players capable of helping Tennessee get back to the top of the SEC East? Only time will tell, but that’s the reason you should be excited about 7-5.

This is a mediocre team, but there are plenty of players on it who have the ability to be much better than that.

Why does the SPM like Georgia in the SEC Championship Game?

The LSU Tigers opened as a 7-point favorite over the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game this week, although several online sites had them as only a 3.5-point favorite. As of Friday morning, there seems to be a consensus of LSU -7. We posted earlier that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes Georgia to not only cover but win, but here’s the detail on how it arrived at that conclusion and whether I think it’s right.

If you’re new here and wondering what the SPM is and whether it’s reliable, check out this post.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia’s points:

  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 32.9
  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 22.1

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Tennessee 21.7
  • Texas A&M 22.7

Georgia scored only 19 points against Texas A&M but 43 against Tennessee. Based on that, the SPM estimates 30.9 points for Georgia against LSU.

LSU’s points:

  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10.4
  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.7

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s):

  • Notre Dame 37.1
  • Auburn 34

Auburn scored only 14 points against Georgia, and Notre Dame got only 17. That’s under half of what those teams usually get, and based on that, the SPM estimates only 21.4 points for LSU against Georgia.

Estimated score: Georgia 30.9, LSU 21.4

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.7
  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10.4

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Florida 14.4
  • Auburn 18.6

LSU scored 23 points against Auburn and 42 against Florida, nearly triple against the Gators, but only slightly more than what the Tigers usually allow. Based on that, the SPM estimates 20.5 points for LSU against Georgia.

Georgia’s points:

  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 22.1
  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 32.9

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

  • Florida 33
  • Auburn 34

Auburn scored 20 against LSU, and Florida got 28. Based on that, the SPM estimates 23.7 points for Georgia against LSU.

Estimated score: LSU 20.5, Georgia 23.7

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Georgia 27.3, LSU 21

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -6.3

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 13.3

That difference between the SPM and the current spread makes this game one of the SPM’s favorites this week.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m uncomfortable with some of the volatility in the comps. For example, from Georgia’s perspective, LSU’s scoring defense is nearly identical to both Tennessee’s and Texas A&M’s, but Georgia got 43 against Tennessee and only 19 against A&M. I feel like A&M has pretty much been the same team all year, but the Vols have improved since they played Georgia, and Georgia’s offense seems to have regressed a bit. Basically, I think the estimate for Georgia’s points from Georgia’s perspective of 30.9 is a bit high. I’m thinking more like 24.

The same can be said of LSU’s points from LSU’s perspective. Georgia’s defense is not only much better than the two closest comps of Florida and Auburn, LSU’s results against those comps vary greatly, getting only slightly more against Auburn than what the Tigers usually give up but nearly triple against the Gators of what they usually give up. If Florida is a different team now than it was when those results were posted, then I think LSU’s estimated points of 20.5 might be a bit high as well. On the other hand, LSU’s offense has the feel of a juggernaut, so despite all of that, I’m inclined think that maybe it has that one pegged.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Georgia 24, LSU 21. I don’t like Georgia as much as the SPM does, but I still like them to not only cover but win outright.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU opened as 7-point favorites from most sources, and those that had it there stayed there while the other sites adjusted to get there. With an over/under of 55 or so, that translates to something like LSU 31, Georgia 24.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes LSU 29-26, and gives the Tigers a 56% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 55.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM likes Georgia to not only cover the -7 spread, it likes the Bulldogs to win outright, and the game is actually in its “favorites” category. After eyeball adjustments, I don’t like them quite as much, but I do also like them to not only cover but win.

  • Vegas: LSU -7 (~LSU 31, Georgia 24)
  • SP+: LSU 29, Georgia 26 (doesn’t cover)
  • SPM: Georgia 27, LSU 21 (doesn’t cover)
  • Me: Georgia 24, LSU 21 (doesn’t cover)

What do y’all think?