The biggest thing I thought Memphis could do to hurt Tennessee was get the Vols in foul trouble, which they absolutely did in the first half. Fortunately, Tennessee got big minutes from Drew Pember and a hot start from Josiah James. Memphis turned it over 11 times in the first 20 minutes, handing Tennessee a 17-5 lead. But the Vols couldn’t run away with it, and a late barrage gave Memphis a one-point halftime lead.
Foul trouble was a non-issue in the second half. In a low-scoring affair, the Vols got some nice buckets from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson; Fulkerson played one of the best games of his career on the defensive end. Both Pons and Fulkerson missed crucial free throws, but the Vols went 13-of-18 (72.2%) from the stripe on the day.
It didn’t look like it was a big part of the Memphis gameplan coming in, but as the day went along a common theme emerged for Tennessee: open looks from three that didn’t go down.
James hit three in the first half. He finished 3-of-6 with a big miss late. Jordan Bowden hit a really tough three in the second half. It was Tennessee’s only other make of the day. The Vols were shooting 33% from the arc coming in. They went 4-of-26 (15.4%). Non-James players went 1-of-20.
Memphis came in shooting 30% from the arc. They didn’t take many, as you’d expect. But they hit some big ones in the second half. Memphis had a four-point lead for 90 seconds with 12 minutes to play. The next time the game was at two possessions was Alex Lomax’s free throws with eight seconds left. In a game like that, threes are daggers. The Tigers took the lead on their final made three with 1:48 to play. The Vols had a deep miss from Lamonte Turner, the aforementioned miss from Josiah James, and Yves Pons missing the front end of a 1-and-1 on the offensive rebound.
This was Tennessee’s worst three-point shooting day since the season opener against Chattanooga in 2016-17 (1-for-16) and two games against Frank Martin’s eventual Final Four squad the same year.
You can take all the emotion from this rivalry – all the ways you want to win anyway, all the amplification from the Penny Hardaway stuff (who was gracious in victory), the nation’s longest home winning streak, all of that – but Tennessee simply cannot survive 4-of-26 from the arc. Most of them were good looks. Almost all of them didn’t go down.
At some point, maybe we’ll look at that and say it’s a good thing since the Vols almost won anyway. Today is not that day. There will be an ongoing conversation about Lamonte Turner’s shoulders (1-for-11 today), but I’m sure everything that can be done about that is already being done.
The result we got today makes sense given how we got there. But how we got there was unexpected, fairly unprecedented, and absolutely no fun.
The Vols will have to rebound quickly, heading to Cincinnati on Wednesday night. The rubber match with Memphis is next season in Nashville.
Thompson-Boling Arena’s official capacity is 21,678. The last two years, the Vols listed an official attendance above capacity five times:
Season
Opponent
Attendance
2019
Florida
22,261
2018
Georgia
22,237
2019
West Virginia
22,149
2019
Alabama
21,957
2019
Kentucky
21,729
How often do the Vols play a ranked non-conference opponent at home? Since Bruce Pearl’s arrival in 2005-06:
Season
Opponent
2018
#7 North Carolina
2015
#15 Butler
2013
#23 Wichita State
2012
#17 Pittsburgh
2012
#13 UConn
2011
#21 Memphis
2010
#1 Kansas
2009
#22 Memphis
2007
#16 Memphis
Put all those ingredients plus everything about the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry in a bowl; it’ll do a good enough job of mixing itself up. Tomorrow is the first of what should become five Saturday sellouts for the Vols (Wisconsin, LSU, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn). But it might end up being the loudest one of all.
Give me all the freshmen you have.
Even with James Wiseman still ineligible and Lester Quinones out with a broken hand, the number of freshmen Memphis will put on the floor is unusual. Start with 6’9″ Precious Achiuwa, who has seen his minutes and production increase to become the team’s number one option. He had 25 in their 87-86 win over Ole Miss on November 23, and he will get to the free throw line: 10 attempts vs the Rebels, 20 against Alcorn State. He’s only shooting 53.3% once he gets there, but for a Tennessee team playing a short bench, his ability to get to the line is of significance. As a team, Memphis is sixth nationally in free throw rate.
This team wants to run: Memphis is 10th nationally in tempo (stats via KenPom), and guards Damion Baugh (freshman) and Alex Lomax (sophomore) both hover around the Top 100 in assist rate.
And, much like the Washington, Florida State, and VCU teams the Vols saw already, Memphis relies on a lot of shot-blocking. The Tigers are statistically the best at it of that group, currently third nationally. But the other three are all in the Top 15. With Memphis, without Wiseman it’s less pure size and more about athleticism: Achiuwa and 6’7″ freshman D.J. Jeffries are both in the Top 150 in shot blocking percentage.
The good news here: despite having played three excellent shot-blocking teams thus far, the Vols are still 63rd nationally in fewest shots blocked by percentage. Some of it is the fearlessness of a guy like Yves Pons, sure. But credit John Fulkerson for being such a high-percentage player against great shot-blocking teams: Fulky is 56th nationally from inside the arc (69.2%), which also makes him 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage at that number since he doesn’t take any threes. The Vols have done a good job both getting him high-percentage looks, and encouraging him to shoot more.
The most straightforward way to talk about Tennessee is to look at Lamonte Turner – eight turnovers in our only loss – and put a lot of where we go on how he’s playing. But how he’s playing, outside of that game, is truly excellent as a point guard: fifth nationally in assist rate, including a pair of 12+ assist games against not-bad teams from Murray State and Chattanooga. There’s nothing about this or, apparently, any moment that’s going to scare him. But Tennessee needs him to choose the straightforward over the spectacular, which is where he got in trouble against the Seminoles. If he does that, the Vols have already gotten the best of a lot of what Memphis likes to do when it was wearing other uniforms.
Maybe the best news of all for Tennessee: last year’s team was led by its offense because you could generally rely on what you were going to get from Williams, Schofield, and Bone. But this year’s team has switched to being led by its defense, which is a more reliable option night in and night out. It traveled to Toronto and Destin. It helped Tennessee survive an early barrage of threes from Murray State. And – if it can stay out of foul trouble, as it usually does – it should handle all the emotion in the building on Saturday.
We’re too early in the year to think big picture, but the ultimate magic numbers in KenPom are always having both a Top 20 offense and defense. The 2018 Vols had the defense. The 2019 Vols had the nation’s third-best offense, but I would say lost a tiny bit of urgency defensively. So far this year, the Vols are 32nd in offense but 14th in defense. It’s the best model to survive and advance for this year’s squad, especially as Olivier Nkamhoua and Josiah Jones James mature.
What could be an all-timer Thompson-Boling crowd will do everything it can to take Memphis, its freshmen, and its coach out of their element. If Tennessee plays within theirs, the Vols should win.
3:00 PM Saturday with Dickie V on the mothership, baby.
The TaxSlayer Bowl pitting the Tennessee Volunteers against the Indiana Hoosiers opened with Indiana as a slight 1.5-point favorite. It has since flipped so that now the Vols are a 1.5-point favorite. Regardless, Vegas is expecting a close game. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say about this year’s Gator Bowl and whether I think it’s right or wrong.
Vols-Hoosiers
From the perspective of Tennessee
Tennessee’s points:
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3
Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5
The Indiana scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
BYU 24.4
South Carolina 26.1
Early in the season, Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU, but got 41 against the Gamecocks as the Vols began to find their stride. Taken together, that 133% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 32.6 points for the Vols against Indiana.
Indiana’s points:
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7
Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6
The Indiana scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Georgia State 32.4
Florida 33
Florida scored 34 points against the Vols, and Georgia State scored 38. That’s slightly more than what those teams scored over the course of the season, and the SPM translates that into 35.9 points for Indiana against Tennessee.
Estimated score: Tennessee 32.6, Indiana 35.9
From the perspective of Indiana
Indiana’s points:
Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s) (FBS only):
Michigan State 22.7
Northwestern 23.6
Indiana scored 31 points against Michigan State and 34 against Northwestern, 141% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Indiana against the Vols 30.6.
Tennessee’s points:
Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s):
Maryland 25.3
Purdue 25.8
Maryland got 28 against Indiana, and Purdue got 41, meaning Indiana’s defense allowed the two closest comps 135% of what they usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Indiana: 32.8.
Estimated score: Indiana 30.6, Tennessee 32.8
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2
SPM Final estimated spread: Indiana -.5
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1
Those numbers are the SPM’s way of warning you not to put too much confidence in the outcome of this game one way or the other.
Eyeball adjustments
Here’s the thing. I think the estimates of Tennessee’s points are too low and the estimates of Indiana’s points are too high. From the Vols’ perspective, the comps include a BYU game that was really early in a long season of continued improvement. Just using South Carolina as the comp would make the estimated points for the Vols from this perspective 38.
And I feel like Indiana’s estimated points are too high because the comps are Georgia State and Florida, two games very early in the season before the defense began to improve. Against teams not named Alabama, the Tennessee defense allowed an average of only 13.5 points against teams that together averaged 23.6 points. If you use that data, the estimated points for Indiana from the Vols’ perspective would be only 19.
All of that would make the Vols’ perspective spit out Tennessee 38, Indiana 19. I don’t think the machine is quite as wrong as that, but the difference is enough to make me think this isn’t the pick ’em everybody and everything thinks it is.
So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 35, Indiana 28. The SPM is imitating Vegas’ shrug on this one, but I like the Vols by a touchdown.
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, Indiana opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and it has since shifted to the Vols being a 1.5-point favorite. With an over/under of around 49, that translates to something like Tennessee 25, Indiana 24.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 52.3% chance of winning.
I haven’t seen SP+ bowl picks yet, but when I see them I’ll add the Tennessee-Indiana prediction here.
Bottom line
The SPM gives only half a point to Indiana in this game, and it’s about as far from being confident against the spread as it can get. I think the eyes see something the machines can’t, and so I like the Vols by a touchdown.
For an argument built around which program needs to play the other more, it sure would be a shame to see the series slip away when both teams have so much going for them.
The Vols and Tigers first met in Oklahoma City in December 1969. It was another two decades before the next meeting, and at that point Memphis was rolling: seven straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 1982-89, including a Final Four in 1985. The Vols went dancing seven of eight years from 1976-83, but Don DeVoe’s squads struck out the next five seasons until one final appearance in his tenure in 1989, the same season Tennessee and Memphis began an annual series.
Tennessee won the first one that year 76-74, and the teams traded blows over the next four games, including a Vol win in the 1990 postseason NIT. Memphis won 74-72 in Knoxville in November 1990.
And then Penny Hardaway got two shots at the Vols. Tennessee won 65-64 in Memphis in December 1991. Back in Knoxville the following season with the Tigers ranked #8:
The rivalry survived Allan Houston vs. Penny Hardaway: Memphis won the next three, then the Vols won five in a row. The Tigers claimed a two point win in December 2001.
And then the series took a break after playing every year from 1988-89 to 2001-02.
Penny’s 1991-92 squad made the Elite Eight. The Tigers were back in the Sweet 16 in 1995, then bounced in the first round in 1996. And then Memphis missed the NCAA Tournament four years in a row. Calipari, he of a vacated Final Four at UMass in 1996 and 2.25 years with the New Jersey Nets, became the new head coach at Memphis for the 2000-01 season. And the rivalry was almost immediately discontinued.
While Memphis was missing the NCAA Tournament four years in a row in the late 90’s, Tennessee ascended under Jerry Green. But much of the work was being done by Kevin O’Neill’s recruits, including highly coveted point guard Tony Harris from Memphis.
Meanwhile, the rise of Tennessee football to its most dominant era in program history happened to coincide with the basketball series being played annually. The Vols and Tigers met six times in the 1980’s in football: three in Knoxville, three in Memphis. That format continued into the 90’s, with the Vols winning in 1991, 1992, and 1994 before Memphis infamously beat the Vols in 1996 (a game we talked a lot about when Tennessee lost to Georgia State). It remains the only win Memphis has ever recorded over Tennessee in football.
The series took three years off, then resumed in what looks like a two-for-one fashion: games in Knoxville in 1999 and 2001, with a return to Memphis in 2000. By that point the Vols were regularly competing for the national title, and Memphis was still mired in misery: between 1972 and 2002, the Tigers never made a bowl game.
At the turn of the century, there was little reason for Tennessee to play a 50-50 home-and-home series with Memphis in football; the Vols’ national profile made it easy to recruit in West Tennessee even without being there every few years. Meanwhile in basketball, Tennessee made the NCAA Tournament four years in a row from 1998-2001 with Tony Harris at point guard, while Memphis was absent from 1997-2002.
With Calipari eager to rebuild the Tigers and keep Tennessee out of Memphis, and Tennessee football finding little motivation to play the Tigers six times in ten years, both series took a break: three years in basketball, four years in football. In that time, Buzz Peterson’s era found the Vols on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament, Tennessee football’s ceiling was lowered a bit, and Calipari got the Tigers going again: an NIT title in 2002, back in the NCAA Tournament the next two years, and the NIT semifinals in 2005.
A deal was struck to put the basketball rivalry back on an annual basis, with home-and-home football games in 2005-06 and 2009-10. Tennessee hired Bruce Pearl. And oh boy.
As Good As It Gets?
Calipari’s distaste for this annual rivalry wasn’t built on Memphis already arriving on the national scene: when the Vols and Tigers resumed on the hardwood in January 2006, Memphis still hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since 1995. But that changed immediately: Calipari’s Tigers made two Elite Eight’s, the title game, and the Sweet 16 in the next four seasons.
Meanwhile, Pearl resurrected Tennessee’s program immediately. Those first three games are memorable to this day: Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table in 2006, Chris Lofton turning in the single best performance I’ve ever seen from a Tennessee player in 2007:
…and, of course, 1 vs 2 in 2008:
Calipari’s Tigers won by two the following year in Knoxville, then he walked through that door to Lexington, Kentucky. At both Memphis and Kentucky, Calipari has been a vocal champion of playing anyone, anytime, anywhere…except, apparently, the Vols while at Memphis.
Interestingly, Calipari built a national power those last four years at Memphis with guys like Robert Dozier (Georgia), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Detroit), Joey Dorsey (Baltimore), Shawn Taggart (Richmond), Derrick Rose (Chicago), and Tyreke Evans (Pennsylvania). While the Tigers did have high-value recruits like Willie Kemp from Bolivar on their roster, most of their success came from recruiting on the national stage.
Meanwhile, Tennessee rose to power under Bruce Pearl during the same span with Memphis-area products Dane Bradshaw, Wayne Chism, and J.P. Prince.
The Fadeaway
The Vols beat Memphis by 20 in Pearl’s final season, then lost three straight before the contract was up, including a memorable double overtime affair in Maui in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. In seven seasons Josh Pastner made the NCAA Tournament four times, but never got out of the first weekend. The Vols made the Sweet 16 from Dayton in Cuonzo Martin’s final season, their only appearance in the tournament’s second weekend between the Elite Eight to open the decade and last season.
In football, Lane Kiffin’s Vols doubled-up Memphis 56-28 in 2009, then Tyler Bray got his first career start and win at Memphis in 2010, the beginning of a four-game winning streak to get the Vols bowl eligible.
Tommy West got the Tigers bowl eligible five out of six years from 2003-08, including a 9-4 season in 2003, but flamed out at 2-10 in 2009.
The decade since the last football meeting between the two schools has seen a shocking reversal of fortune. Justin Fuente’s arrival on the banks of the Mississippi in 2012 saw the Tigers go 4-8 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, then rocket to a 10-3 finish in 2014 and a #25 final ranking. The Tigers went 9-4 the following season, Fuente went to Virginia Tech, and Mike Norvell picked up right where he left off: 8-5, 10-3 with a ranked finish, 8-6, and now 12-1 this season with the coveted New Year’s Six appearance in the Cotton Bowl.
Here’s a list of the other bowl games in the history of Memphis football: Burley, Pasadena (not Rose), New Orleans, GMAC, Motor City, New Orleans, St. Petersburg, Miami Beach, Birmingham, Boca Raton, Liberty, Birmingham.
While the Tigers rose, Tennessee wandered through the wilderness. Since 2014, Memphis is 57-22; the Vols are 41-34.
Meanwhile in basketball, Pastner’s move to Georgia Tech brought two tumultuous years of Tubby Smith and no NCAA or NIT appearances. Tennessee watched Cuonzo Martin leave for California, then hired Donnie Tyndall before firing him with cause after one season, then went 15-19 and 16-16 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons.
The Return
And then Memphis hired Penny Hardaway, and what we hoped we were getting from Rick Barnes arrived in full.
The Vols went 26-9 and won the SEC in 2018, then 31-6 including a month at #1 last season. Memphis went 22-14 and made the NIT last season, then Hardaway signed the nation’s number one recruiting class, including two four-stars and a five-star from Memphis. Two of those players, including James Wiseman, played for Hardaway at Memphis East.
So when this series was renewed last season as a three-year deal – Memphis, Knoxville, and next year in Nashville for the first time – it was unique in a couple of ways. One, there’s no football in the contract. Memphis has a home-and-home with Mississippi State and a two-for-one with Arkansas in the coming decade, but no Vols on the horizon.
But two, when the series renewed last December, balled fists or no…both the Tennessee and Memphis programs were on better footing than in 1989 or, as far as we knew at the time, 2006.
Pearl and Calipari were both on their way to great things in that initial meeting now 14 years ago. But we couldn’t be sure of either at the time. This time, the Vols have been one of the best teams in college basketball over the last two seasons and show no signs of leaving the Top 25, and Memphis has the nation’s best recruiting class.
I don’t know what Penny’s ambitions are – stay at Memphis forever, get to the NBA, or somewhere between – but it’s clear he can recruit at the level it takes to get Memphis where it needs to go. And it’s clear Rick Barnes can do the same at Tennessee, currently holding the nation’s #4 recruiting class for 2020 with one mid-state Tennessean and two others from Florida and Virginia. Jaden Springer chose the Vols over the Tigers.
“I think it’s been good for everybody…I think it will be good next year for us in Nashville. As your schedule opportunities come up, you’ve got to look at it and evaluate it.”
“You’re trying to get me to talk about things,” Barnes said. “Really, I don’t think about that. I told you, we’re going to build a schedule based on where and what we think is best. That’s all I can answer.”
And that’s the rub: where and what we think is best.
When Calipari took the Memphis job, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business. Not because of what Memphis was at the time, or what Tennessee was, but because of who he was trying to get Memphis to be. When the series did resume in 2006, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business because the Vols had struggled under Buzz Peterson and Memphis was looking to level up.
This notion that Tennessee has more to gain from playing Memphis than the other way around has always been at the heart of the matter for me, especially as Tennessee’s national profile rose under Pearl. The Tigers have spent the last 25 years in Conference USA and the American. In no individual season did it ever hurt their strength of schedule to play the Vols; far more often than not, it helped. Memphis got where they were going under Calipari by recruiting nationally, the Vols in part under Pearl by recruiting well in-state. Once Calipari left, the question could’ve been easily asked in reverse.
But now, having spent most of this decade apart, both Tennessee and Memphis are on excellent footing relative to both their expectations and recent history. For maybe the first time, we don’t have to have this argument about who benefits more.
It would be quite an opportunity missed, then, if both schools decide not to run it back after next season.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game this Saturday against the Memphis Tigers. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.
The goals for the Vols:
Protect the ball.
Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.
My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Tennessee 50.6 (No. 131)
Memphis 52.2 (No. 81)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Memphis is most like Florida State at shooting the ball. They’re quite a bit better than the Vols.
Turnover %
Tennessee 20.3 (No. 218)
Memphis 19.7 (No. 187)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Neither team is especially good at protecting the ball, but Memphis is better. Among the Vols’ prior opponents, they’re most like VCU and Florida State.
Offensive Rebound %
Tennessee 32.3 (No. 70)
Memphis 34.8 (No. 31)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
OR%
Rank
Mississippi St.
40
2
LSU
37.2
6
Tennessee
28.9
153
Conclusion: Memphis will be the best-rebounding team the Vols have played to date. Fortunately, Tennessee’s no slouch in this category, either.
Free Throw Rate
Tennessee 40 (No. 42)
Memphis 44.9 (No. 6)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
Team
FTRate
Rank
Cincinnati
37
68
Mississippi St.
36.9
69
Mississippi
36.5
74
Tennessee
34
129
Conclusion: Again, Memphis will be the best team the Vols have played when it comes to getting to the free-throw line. They compare best to Murray State at this point among prior Vols’ opponents. Tennessee is no slouch in this category, but Memphis appears to be clearly better at this point.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 50.6 (No. 131), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.5 (No. 12).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ eFG% is 52.2 (No. 81), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.1 (No. 5).
Conclusions
Both teams are going to make it more difficult than usual for the other to shoot well.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee is still struggling with a turnover % of 20.3 (No. 218). The Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23.3 (No. 41).
When Memphis has the ball
Memphis’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 187), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 142).
Conclusions
Expect some frustration at Tennessee’s tendency to turn the ball over because it will be exacerbated by Memphis’ better-than-most ability to force turnovers.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 70), and Memphis’ defense in that category is 31.1 (No. 271).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ OR% is 34.8 (No. 31), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 22.6 (No. 14).
Conclusions
The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding under their own basket, largely because the Tigers aren’t very good there. Memphis is better on their own side of the court, but the Vols still have an advantage on that end. Bottom line: The Vols have an advantage rebounding the ball.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 40 (No. 42), while Memphis’ defense against that is 35.3 (No. 248).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ FT Rate is 44.9 (No. 6), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 84).
Conclusions
Both teams know how to get to the line. Memphis is marginally better at it than Tennessee, but Tennessee is much better at keeping their opponents off the line. Here’s to hoping that that translates into more trips for the Vols.
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.
The goals for the Vols:
Protect the ball.
Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.
With the loss of JUCO Art
Green and the potential flip of Mordecai
McDaniel to Florida (which would NOT be mutual), what was once a class of
three DBs for Tennessee is down to two and possibly only one (stud S/CB Keshawn
Lawrence). And despite having a solid
group of young players on the roster, with the amount of Nickel and even Dime
defense that Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley like to play, there
is always going to be a need for talented bodies there. Could
the Vols survive a cycle with only Lawrence as a DB signee? Probably.
Especially since there are a handful of other current commitments who
could also project to the secondary. Jimmy Calloway, who’s listed as a WR and
is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, was being recruited by Oklahoma
as a DB (notably, Florida is also trying to flip him, and he is still undecided
as to whether he will sign next week or not).
Tamarion McDonald, part of
the Whitehaven Trio, has played all over the field throughout his high school
career and is for sure a candidate to play the Nickel position, where his combination
of coverage skills and hitting ability would be a perfect fit should he not
grow into a LB. That said, it does seem
like the Vols are at least giving themselves options should they want and/or
need to add at least one more DB.
Tennessee will have four DBs on campus this weekend, with a fifth
prospect still lingering.
Emmanuel Appiah
is a JUCO early enrollee originally from New Jersey. He’s got offers from Auburn and Tennessee and
officially visited the Tigers for the Iron Bowl weekend. He had a big sophomore season with eight
INTs, and at 6’0 with good length he’s got the requisite size for a Pruitt
DB. Notably, he is good friends with
Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano. Likely
a guy who can step in and help at least rotationally right away, it remains
unclear where he is on both Auburn’s and Tennessee’s board.
Decamerion Richardson
is an intriguing option at CB from Bossier City, LA. He’s a LONG 6’2 and a track star – he ran a
10.75 100M and 21.63 200M along with a high jump of 6’0, good for 2nd,
3rd and 2nd respectively in the state of LA – yet another
prospect with the classic Pruitt DB makeup .
A bit of a late bloomer, once Richardson’s senior tape got out – he ended up receiving All District honors as
both 1st Team RB and DB – he quickly received offers from South
Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State (where he OV’d this past
weekend). He liked his visit to
Starkville quite a bit, so the Vols could have a fight on their hands should
they decide to truly engage.
Doneiko Slaughter
is an Arizona State commitment from Roswell, GA outside of Atlanta. More of a S/Nickel prospect than a Cornerback,
Slaughter’s calling card is his combo of good if not elite speed (10.88 100M
and a 4.65 40) and real physicality. He
just took an OV to Miami, so clearly his commitment is soft, so if the Vols
push they likely can land him. A “baller”
according to the esteemed Chad Simmons of Rivals, Slaughter plays with an edge
that you know Pruitt loves.
Donovan Kaufman
is, like Richardson, a Coach David YAC Johnson special from Louisiana. A Vanderbilt commitment, Kaufman is very
likely to end up somewhere much better than West End. Speaking of ballers, Kaufman did it all for
his state championship Archbishop Rummel team this season, making 112 tackles, scoring
six touchdowns, forcing six fumbles, and registering eight sacks and four INTs
in 13 games. He carried the ball
from the Wildcat position and returned kicks as well. Those stats, and the way he jumps out on film,
make the Honey Badger comparisons all too easy for the New Orleans native. Kaufman just received an offer from new FSU
coach Mike Norvell, who recruited Louisiana very well at Memphis and had tried
with Kaufman while with the Tigers, and is now receiving significant interest
from LSU (who is, as everyone knows, very short on numbers). Kaufman
stands out from the rest of this list because he is on the shorter end at 5’9,
but he’s a playmaker and a winner, two things Pruitt covets at all positions.
Kendall Dennis is
a familiar name to many Vol fans as he visited Knoxville twice over the
summer. The 4-star Florida native has
been thought to be an Auburn lean for quite a while, but a late Clemson offer
threw a monkey wrench into his recruitment.
However, Clemson has since decided to move on a different DB for their
final spot at the position, leaving Dennis in a bit of limbo. Oklahoma, where he took an OV recently, is
still an option, and Nebraska is in the same boat. USF, who’s new coach is
former Clemson assistant Jeff Scott, could also get involved. While Tennessee isn’t currently scheduled to
receive an OV this weekend, the Vols were included in his Top 5 this past week
and could be a player if things break a certain way for both parties. That will be one to watch.
Whether the Vols have to fill one or two spots in the defensive backfield in this class remains to be seen, but Pruitt and staff have done a tremendous job setting themselves up with a plethora of talented prospects to choose from whatever decision they make. This weekend will go a long way for both Tennessee and the respective prospects in determining which direction the Vols go, but it seems hard for them to go wrong.
Hard to overstate how big of a commitment DL Omari Thomas is for Tennessee. Thomas is a true blue chip prospect, with the
kind of size and talent that requires no explanation. With the Vols major need for DL in this
class, particularly as one looks to 2021 and beyond, Thomas is a cornerstone
player for the future of the Vol defense.
And as much as landing the Whitehaven
Trio was big in its own right, Thomas represents another bigtime recruiting
win against elite programs like Alabama and such, while also further cementing Tennessee
as the dominant recruiting power in Memphis under Coach Jeremy Pruitt.
Thomas’s high school teammate RB Jabari Small is set to commit tomorrow, and all signs point to him
continuing Tennessee’s sweep of Memphis.
In this writer’s opinion Small profiles as a very capable SEC back, with
better-than-you-might-think size (5’11, 190) and a combination of good if not
great speed and outstanding quickness, agility, and short-area moves. Very much in the mold of Eric Gray, Small is
a great complement to Tennessee’s other RB commitment Tee Hodge, playing the
classic Lightning role to Hodge’s Thunder.
Smalls was, along with Thomas, a finalist for Tennessee’s Mr. Football,
and finished his senior season with 29 TDs and just under 2,000 rushing+receiving
yards. His final game was a 4 TD
performance in the Tennessee high school playoffs against Ensworth and their P5-littered
defense.
I don’t think it’s coincidental that the Tennessee smoke
coming out of Morven Joseph’s OV to
Florida on Sunday came within hours of Vol commitment Jimari Butler telling Rivals that he was essentially decommitting
from Tennessee. The guess here is that
the Tennessee staff they said something to the effect of “If you’re taking
other visits we can’t hold your spot.” Butler then went to Nebraska this past
weekend and was then his spot was taken.
Butler is certainly a good looking prospect with outstanding upside – we’ve
said as much here
and here
– but it’s hard to compare him to Joseph and not come away feeling like the
Vols would be well off with that swap.
Joseph’s clearly got a more refined game, and while he’s not go Butler’s
physical size he’s far from small at 6’3 220.
And there’s a reason he got springtime offers from the likes of Alabama
and Auburn and that his other finalist is Florida – three teams known for
dominant pass rushers. With word that Pruitt
and his staff are still pushing to flip BJ Ojulari back from LSU, things at
Edge Rusher could end up finishing better than anyone could have ever imagined
and the Vols will be SET there for a few years.
Tennessee looks like it’s in really good shape for TCU QB/ATH
commitment Jimmy Holiday from
Madison, MS, especially after wowing him by bringing the entire offensive staff
on his inhome visit. Ranked by 247 as
the 1,389th (!!!) prospect in the class and the 33rd
player in Mississippi, the forecast here is that Holiday will skyrocket up the
rankings after this coming AL/MS All-Star Game week. Holiday is simply electric with the ball in
his hands and his film shows some modicum of passing ability. A lot this week could depend on which
position(s) he practices at, but expect to hear rave reviews from national
writers coming out of Hattiesburg.
Tennessee’s staff could not have set this weekend up more
perfectly. Days before the Early Signing
Period begins, the Vols will have a TON of top talent on campus. And not only that, the recruits will be
present for what should be a wild and raucous atmosphere in Thompson Boiling
Arena as Rick Barnes’s squad dominates the Memphis Tigers. Below are the recruits set to officially
visit:
TE Darnell Washington
WR Ramon Henderson*
WR Corey Wren
RB Zaquandre White (JUCO)
ILB Desmond Tisdol
ILB Vai Kaho
OLB Jaqwondis Burns*
DB Emmanuel Appiah (JUCO)
DB Donovan Kaufman
DB Decamerion Richardson
DB Doneiko Slaughter
* tentative
We made the case for oversigning
last week, simply based on the sheer amount of top talent that Tennessee could very,
very realistically land were numbers not an issue. With now eight spots remaining pending any
further decommitments or scholarship gymnastics, Tennessee’s board is basically
a decision tree of prospects. For
example:
Are you holding a spot for Darnell Washington? If Yes, you now have seven spots. If no, or if you’re told he’s not coming, you’re
back to eight
Do you land Tyler Baron?
Do you also land Octavius Oxendine?
If Yes to both, do you take Reginald Perry?
Are you holding a spot in February for Jay Hardy? What if he signs with Auburn next week? Either way, what does that do for Perry?
Do you take Vai Kaho, or Desmond Tisdol, or both ILBs?
If you land Morven Joseph at Edge, do you take another? Is Khari Coleman that guy, or does it have to
be Ojulari?
Do you think you need another DB? Is Mordecai McDaniel solid anyway, or is a flip to Florida in the works? If either one is Yes, what’s the order of your list?
Assuming you land Small tomorrow, do can you possibly take a
3rd RB (White, or even Len’neth Whitehead)?
If you land Holiday, is he your 2nd QB or your 4th
WR to go with Jalin Hyatt, Jimmy Calloway and Darion Williamson? If he’s a QB, does that open 1-2 spots for
Henderson and Wren? If there’s only one
more, who do you prioritize?
And finally, what do you do if Tate Ratledge gives you an
indication that he might flip? What about
if you have to wait to February? Who
loses their spot from the list above?
For the most part these are all good problems to have. The Vols are deep in the mix with upwards of 20 prospects, each of whom would upgrade the overall talent level on Tennessee’s roster at their respective positions, and some of them are no-brainer, blue chip guys for whom the Vols are recruiting against some of the top programs in the country. Pruitt and his staff are showing no signs of slowing down to set themselves up in the best position possible with the deepest and most talented board they can get. The next, and maybe most important step, will be to read the board correctly and manage things such that they land as many of the players THEY WANT as they can.
Our 2019-20 Bowl Pick ‘Em is now open at Fun Office Pools. If you played with us last year, or in this year’s regular season picks contest, you should’ve received an email this morning with an invitation to join, or you can sign up directly at Fun Office Pools. As always, it’s free to play.
And as always, we use confidence points: make your picks straight up in each of the 40 bowl games, including the playoffs, then assign a point value to each contest: 40 points for the outcome you’re most confident in, one point for the outcome you’re least confident in, etc.
The bowl fun starts December 20, but the pool is open now. Our old friends at Banner Society rank the Gator Bowl seventh in their watchability ratings in today’s Read Option newsletter.
One of the biggest reasons we were juiced about the hire, though, was the notion that it not only made Tennessee better, it made Georgia worse.
Well, is it true? Here is a comparison of Tennessee’s offensive stats from the end of the 2018 regular season to the end of the 2019 regular season:
Helping yourself
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
Let’s start with the concession that not everything improved. The quarterbacks threw more interceptions (11 this year to 5 last year) and the offense got worse in the red zone this season. And despite any improvement in other areas, you can’t really say that the offense is humming.
But there was improvement in many offensive categories. Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and Rushing Offense all improved. The offense was better on first downs and more explosive in the passing game, and it was much better on third down this year than last. The biggest improvement came in keeping guys from getting tackled behind their own line of scrimmage.
If that doesn’t really move the needle for you, consider this: The Jim Chaney Effect doesn’t really show up until his second season behind the wheel.
As Will wrote in our 2019 Vols magazine, Chaney’s offense at Georgia in 2016 ranked only 74th in SP+, averaging 5.44 yards per play and 24.5 points per game. For the sake of comparison, his 2019 offense at Tennessee averaged 4.38 yards per play and 24.3 points per game. Worse on yards, about the same on points.
His 2017 offense at Georgia, though, climbed all the way to 7th in SP+ (6.7 yards per play and 35.4 points per game), and then went to 3rd in SP+ in 2018 with 7.05 yards per play and 37.9 points per game.
Bottom line, Tennessee’s offense has already improved in Jim Chaney’s first year, and it’s not at all unreasonable for Vols fans to expect to see a huge improvement in 2020.
Hurting your rival
What about Georgia? Your eyeballs are insisting that the Bulldogs missed Chaney something terrible this year. The numbers concur:
The 2019 Bulldogs’ offense was fine protecting the quarterback and the line of scrimmage and even held steady in the red zone. But it was worse at everything else. The Bulldogs went from 18th to 60th in Total Offense, from 14th to 51st in Scoring Offense, and from 16th to 37th in Rushing Offense even though they still had Deandre Swift and a stable of studs. The Passing Offense wasn’t needed in 2018, and the numbers got no better this year when it was.
Yes, the Georgia Bulldogs’ offense got dramatically worse this year, and it’s because Jim Chaney left for Tennessee.
Congratulations to Sam, who finished first in Week 15 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em with a record of 9-1 and 53 confidence points.
I went all in on a couple of upsets to sprint to the finish line and fell on my face instead. I should have known about that UAB game — duh — but I have to admit that LSU’s domination of Georgia really took me by surprise. I think Jim Chaney matters, y’all.
Here are the full results for this week:
Rank
Player
W-L
Points
Tiebreaker
1
Sam
9-1
53
20-29
2
Phonies
8-2
52
20-30**
2
LuckyGuess
9-1
52
20-31
2
joeb_1
9-1
52
23-28
2
Jahiegel
8-2
52
26-31
2
alanmar
9-1
52
27-38
2
hounddog3
8-2
52
32-33
8
rollervol
9-1
51
17-27**
8
wedflatrock
8-2
51
20-31
8
GeorgeMonkey
8-2
51
20-35
8
bluelite
8-2
51
24-31
8
jfarrar90
8-2
51
27-31
8
Hjohn
8-2
51
28-31
8
UTSeven
8-2
51
24-40
15
corn from a jar
8-2
50
14-35**
15
ctull
8-2
50
17-28
15
patmd
8-2
50
17-28
15
rsbrooks25
8-2
50
18-35
15
DinnerJacket
8-2
50
13-28
15
Anaconda
8-2
50
27-32
15
boro wvvol
8-2
50
28-31
15
vols95
8-2
50
21-42
15
PAVolFan
8-2
50
28-38
24
cnyvol
8-2
49
20-24**
24
birdjam
8-2
49
21-23
24
keepontruckin
7-3
49
20-31
24
PensacolaVolFan
8-2
49
10-30
24
Crusher
8-2
49
31-34
24
Hixson Vol1
8-2
49
23-44
30
Wilk21
9-1
48
14-42
31
TennVol95 in 3D!
7-3
47
21-27**
31
Neil Neisner
7-3
47
14-24
31
Raven17
7-3
47
17-42
34
C_hawkfan
8-2
46
27-28**
34
ltvol99
8-2
46
24-41
34
trdlgmsr
7-3
46
0-0
37
memphispete
7-3
44
24-35**
37
TennRebel
6-4
44
27-24
39
HUTCH
8-2
43
13-48
40
tbone
6-4
42
24-31
41
mmmjtx
6-4
41
21-24**
41
ddayvolsfan
7-3
41
24-34
41
claireb7tx
6-4
41
28-35
41
Rossboro
6-4
41
0-0
45
Harley
7-3
39
17-31
46
Timbuktu126
7-3
37
14-17
47
Will Shelton
6-4
35
27-24
48
Bulldog 85
4-6
33
0-0
49
Joel @ GRT
6-4
32
24-21
50
ga26engr
5-5
31
34-32
51
mariettavol
1-9
10
-
52
Knottfair
0-10
9
-
52
Aaron Birkholz
0-10
9
-
52
mmb61
0-10
9
-
52
UTVols18
0-10
9
-
52
Salty Seth
0-10
9
-
52
Teri28
0-10
9
-
52
tpi
0-10
9
-
52
ChuckieTVol
0-10
9
-
52
Jayyyy
0-10
9
-
52
aaron217
0-10
9
-
52
If you ain’t first you’re
0-10
9
-
52
tallahasseevol
0-10
9
-
52
dgibbs
0-10
9
-
52
waltsspac
0-10
9
-
52
Willewillm
0-10
9
-
52
daetilus
0-10
9
-
52
Orange Swarm
0-10
9
-
52
Dmorton
0-10
9
-
52
RockyPopPicks
0-10
9
-
52
VillaVol
0-10
9
-
52
Jrstep
0-10
9
-
52
ed75
0-10
9
-
52
jeremy.waldroop
0-10
9
-
52
rockytopinKy
0-10
9
-
52
OriginalVol1814
0-10
9
-
52
BristVol
0-10
9
-
52
orange_devil87
0-10
9
-
52
Orange On Orange
0-10
9
-
52
VFL49er
0-10
9
-
52
doritoscowboy
0-10
9
-
52
ddutcher
0-10
9
-
52
BZACHARY
0-10
9
-
52
Caban Greys
0-10
9
-
52
cactusvol
0-10
9
-
52
Techboy
0-10
9
-
52
JLPasour
0-10
9
-
52
waitwhereami
0-10
9
-
52
Displaced_Vol_Fan
0-10
9
-
Final results for the 2019 season
And high five to PAVolFan, who holds on to win the season overall with a record of 219-71 and 2,465 confidence points. Everybody say something nice about him.
Here are the full final standings:
Rank
Player
W-L
%
Points
1
PAVolFan
219-71
75.52
2465
2
wedflatrock
216-74
74.48
2463
3
birdjam
216-74
74.48
2460
4
GeorgeMonkey
211-79
72.76
2447
5
corn from a jar
212-78
73.10
2442
6
memphispete
214-76
73.79
2425
7
LuckyGuess
209-81
72.07
2422
8
joeb_1
207-83
71.38
2401
8
C_hawkfan
222-68
76.55
2401
10
Hixson Vol1
216-74
74.48
2395
11
jfarrar90
209-81
72.07
2394
12
hounddog3
209-81
72.07
2388
13
UTSeven
201-89
69.31
2378
14
cnyvol
211-79
72.76
2366
15
trdlgmsr
204-86
70.34
2365
16
Joel @ GRT
211-79
72.76
2363
17
Anaconda
198-92
68.28
2362
18
Phonies
205-85
70.69
2351
18
boro wvvol
204-86
70.34
2351
20
Displaced_Vol_Fan
200-90
68.97
2344
21
alanmar
211-79
72.76
2339
22
Raven17
198-92
68.28
2335
23
TennRebel
200-90
68.97
2330
24
DinnerJacket
203-87
70.00
2326
25
Rossboro
200-90
68.97
2324
26
daetilus
196-94
67.59
2321
27
Bulldog 85
201-89
69.31
2318
28
mmmjtx
204-86
70.34
2316
29
ChuckieTVol
203-87
70.00
2314
30
keepontruckin
195-95
67.24
2313
31
Sam
208-82
71.72
2310
32
Harley
201-89
69.31
2291
33
Crusher
205-85
70.69
2288
34
Jahiegel
199-91
68.62
2274
34
ltvol99
211-79
72.76
2274
36
ga26engr
203-87
70.00
2264
37
ctull
192-98
66.21
2257
37
claireb7tx
199-91
68.62
2257
39
rsbrooks25
207-83
71.38
2230
40
ddayvolsfan
201-89
69.31
2207
41
tbone
191-99
65.86
2203
42
doritoscowboy
191-99
65.86
2200
43
rollervol
201-89
69.31
2196
44
bluelite
191-99
65.86
2190
45
TennVol95 in 3D!
188-102
64.83
2187
46
Wilk21
191-99
65.86
2170
47
Neil Neisner
184-106
63.45
2145
48
HUTCH
190-100
65.52
2135
49
Jayyyy
158-132
54.48
2133
50
Hjohn
185-105
63.79
2123
51
patmd
190-100
65.52
2066
52
Timbuktu126
172-118
59.31
2062
52
Orange On Orange
146-144
50.34
2062
54
mariettavol
156-134
53.79
2058
55
vols95
154-136
53.10
2047
56
PensacolaVolFan
184-106
63.45
2030
57
waitwhereami
136-154
46.90
2004
58
Knottfair
132-158
45.52
1999
59
dgibbs
136-154
46.90
1978
60
jeremy.waldroop
108-182
37.24
1896
61
VillaVol
103-187
35.52
1735
62
rockytopinKy
95-195
32.76
1730
63
Orange Swarm
85-205
29.31
1715
64
Will Shelton
58-232
20.00
1628
65
OriginalVol1814
56-234
19.31
1600
66
aaron217
63-227
21.72
1595
67
BZACHARY
74-216
25.52
1592
68
tpi
54-236
18.62
1537
69
RockyPopPicks
33-257
11.38
1530
70
Willewillm
25-265
8.62
1443
71
Jrstep
34-256
11.72
1437
72
BristVol
26-264
8.97
1418
73
Dmorton
27-263
9.31
1415
74
Caban Greys
13-277
4.48
1405
75
tallahasseevol
14-276
4.83
1395
76
orange_devil87
15-275
5.17
1393
76
If you ain�t first you�re
13-277
4.48
1393
76
JLPasour
14-276
4.83
1393
79
Aaron Birkholz
13-277
4.48
1384
80
ed75
13-277
4.48
1380
81
Salty Seth
12-278
4.14
1370
82
Techboy
11-279
3.79
1369
83
waltsspac
11-279
3.79
1366
84
cactusvol
12-278
4.14
1360
85
VFL49er
4-286
1.38
1309
86
Teri28
5-285
1.72
1262
87
UTVols18
0-290
0.00
1261
87
ddutcher
0-290
0.00
1261
87
mmb61
0-290
0.00
1261
Will will be setting up the 2019 GRT Bowl Pick ‘Em Contest soon, which I am going to dominate. You’ve been warned.
