Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Indiana Hoosiers. Bottom line for this week: Don’t take Indiana lightly, especially the Hoosiers defense or their offensive passing attack. But if the Vols offense can find success in the passing game and the defense can force a one-dimensional attack into long third downs and then win those plays, Tennessee should be able to win.
Details below.
When the Vols have the ball
Where’s the opportunity?
It looks like maybe the Tennessee Volunteers offense is going to have to jab these guys a few times to see what they’re made of. The Hoosiers defense generally has better numbers than the Volunteers offense, but only because mediocre beats bad, and those bad numbers are season-long accumulations that don’t really reflect what the Vols offense has become late in the season. Indiana does not appear to be a threat to intercept the ball, and they’re very generous in the red zone. That, combined with Tennessee’s o-line able to protect Jarrett Guarantano pretty well, says to me that the best opportunity to explore first for the Vols offense is in the passing game.
Where’s the danger?
Overall, Indiana’s total defense numbers are much, much better than the Vols’ total offense numbers. The Hoosiers are particularly good on first down, so expect some challenges there unless Jim Chaney busts out some plays that both break tendencies and work.
Gameplan for the Vols on offense
Careful with these guys. Indiana’s not known for football, but they’re a good team this year, particularly on defense. We should find out fairly early if and how much of a difference there is between third in the SEC East and fourth in the Big 10 East. Let’s hope there is a difference and that it is significant. If not, Tennessee will need to devote some time early to discovering what works and what doesn’t. I’m assuming Tennessee will roll out a balanced attack, but I’m also expecting most of any success to come through the air.
Vols on defense
Where’s the opportunity?
Season-long statistics suggest that the Indiana offense and the Tennessee defense are pretty evenly matched overall. However, those numbers also suggest that Indiana is one-dimensional, that the Hoosiers either don’t want to or can’t run the ball very well. Jeremy Pruitt and Derrick Ansley should have an advantage over a one-dimensional team, and if Indiana just chucks it up there too many times, Tennessee’s got the ability to get some picks.
Where’s the danger?
Indiana’s passing offense is Top 15 in the nation, and even though Tennessee’s ability to minimize passing yards is just outside the Top 15, if the Hoosiers get into a groove through the air, it could spell trouble. They’re especially good on third downs, so getting off the field on defense will be especially important.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
The first order of business is to establish that Indiana’s offensive attack is one-dimensional and that the running game isn’t the primary threat. Once that’s done, they should be able to redirect some resources to pass defense. Force Indiana into long and dangerous third-down situations where the Vols DBs will have interception opportunities. If you can’t create turnovers, at least get off the field and give the ball back to the offense.
Special teams
Marquez Calloway has a huge opportunity to impact the game with his punt return ability Thursday.
Turnovers and penalties
Wow. These guys look really undisciplined in the penalty categories. They do appear to be better at causing and recovering fumbles.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Wisconsin Badgers. The conclusions are up front, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:
FG%
3FG%
TOs/G
OR/G
DR/G
FTA/G
Tennessee
43.5
29.4
13.1
10.27
27.18
19.64
Wisconsin
44.2
32.3
11.3
8.73
25.09
17.91
Summary and Score Prediction
All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched in most of the four factors, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts will be at a premium.
The goals for the Vols:
Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.
My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: A pretty good shooting team, Wisconsin is most similar to Memphis in this regard and better than Tennessee.
Turnover %
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Wisconsin protects the ball better than any other team the Vols have played so far this season. The most-similar prior Vols opponent is UNC Asheville.
Offensive Rebound %
Team
OR%
Rank
Mississippi St.
40
2
LSU
37.2
6
Tennessee
28.9
153
Conclusion: Tennessee is a better rebounding team than Wisconsin, who is most similar to VCU and Chattanooga among prior Vols opponents.
Free Throw Rate
Team
FTRate
Rank
Cincinnati
37
68
Mississippi St.
36.9
69
Mississippi
36.5
74
Tennessee
34
129
Conclusion: The Vols also have an edge at getting to the free-throw line, although it’s not by much. The Badgers are most similar to Florida A&M in this category.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.5 (No. 199), and it will be going up against a defense that is 48.8 (No. 165).
When Wisconsin has the ball
The Badgers’ eFG% is 51.3 (No. 103), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.7 (No. 13).
Conclusions
Tennessee’s offense and Wisconsin’s defense are pretty evenly matched, but the Vols’ defense has an advantage over the Badgers’ offense.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.3 (No. 159), while the Badgers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.2 (No. 247).
When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin’s turnover % is 17.2 (No. 48), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 21.2 (No. 100).
Conclusions
With the loss of Turner for the season, it’s a good thing that they’re not playing a team that is especially adept at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin generally protects the ball pretty well, but the Vols might be able to affect their ability to do so in this game.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 30.1 (No. 115). Wisconsin’s defense in that category is 24 (No. 38).
When Wisconsin has the ball
The Badgers’ OR% is 27.4 (No. 190), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.1 (No. 68).
Conclusions
Neither team is exactly bad at getting offensive rebounds, but they’ll both be going up against teams that are better at grabbing them for the defense. Basically, it looks like offensive rebounds are going to be at a premium.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 35.3 (No. 110), while Wisconsin’s defense against that is 25.5 (No. 61).
When Wisconsin has the ball
The Badgers’ FT Rate is 33.1 (No. 153), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 81).
Conclusions
As with offensive rebounds, both teams are decent at getting to the foul line but will be going up against defenses that are adept at keeping opponents from doing so.
Summary and Score Prediction
All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free throw attempts will be at a premium.
The goals for the Vols:
Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.
As discussed
last week, Tennessee’s 9th ranked recruiting class (per Rivals) was
not only strong in its own right but also served to both widen the gap between
the Vols and programs below them in the SEC East and also at worst maintain the
status quo between them and Georgia and especially Florida. That said, there is a narrative that serves
to discount the meaningfulness of Tennessee’s ranking that misses a number of
important points. That story is that
because Tennessee’s class is “only” 7th in the SEC (behind Alabama,
LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, and Auburn) that means the Vols are stuck
in mediocrity within the SEC and even nationally, which is not only false but
shortsighted. To wit:
Point I: Before one
can get to comparing Tennessee’s class to anyone else’s in the conference, it
simply must be reiterated that Coach Jeremy Pruitt had a monumental task of
roster building when he took the job in December 2017. The talent level across the board was way
down (as evidenced by Tennessee having ZERO draftees in the 2019 NFL draft) as
were the overall numbers relative to the 85-man scholarship limit. So simply following up last year’s #12
class in 247 Sports’ enrolled rankings
(which Rivals does not have, thus the change of recruiting service) with a Top
10 nationally ranked class is a huge deal.
Pruitt needs to keep stacking up these types of classes – filled with
difference makers at multiple positions and very few if any reaches – in order
to build Tennessee back into a true title contender. And then of course continue to develop that
talent like he has so far. And this was
a step no matter how many other SEC schools are also in the Top 10
Point II: Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis, also had a strong class. Using the same Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man class finished 7th in the country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58, while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero 5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52. The classes are almost exactly equal to each other using these objective metrics, effectively meaning that the idea that Tennessee finished “behind” Florida is while technically true in reality meaningless. Further, when comparing Pruitt’s two whole classes to Gators Coach Dan Mullen’s, Tennessee has two more players on its roster from the 2019 class than does Florida, who lost its top-rated 2019 signee and three 4-stars before the 2019 season began. One could very easily make the case that between the two classes Tennessee has more talent on its 2020 roster than do the Gators
Two-year average ranking (2019 enrolled, 2020 Early Signing
Day)
Tennessee: #10.5
average rank (#12 + #9)
2019:22 signed, 2 out – Melvin McBride and Jerrod Means, 2
transfers in (Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibss, with one and two more seasons
of eligibility remaining, respectively); 22
net for 2020 season
Florida: #12
average rank (#17+#7)
2019: 24 signed, 3 never enrolled, 2 transferred out before
the season (including its one 5-star as well as three 4-stars), 2 transfers in
(Jon Greenard, now out of eligibility, and Brenton Cox, 2 years to play); 20 net for the 2020 season
Point III:
Tennessee doesn’t play Texas A&M, Auburn, or LSU except for once every
eight years unless it meets one of them in the SEC Championship Game. So being behind those schools in terms of
recruiting ranking is effectively akin to being behind Clemson or Ohio State –
if you’re seeing one those schools on the field it very likely means you’ve had
an incredible season and your program has accumulated enough talent and
developed that talent well enough that a single year’s recruiting ranking
variance is fairly meaningless.
Point IV: Following
Point III, Tennessee’s top three competitors in the SEC East – Georgia,
Florida, and to a much lesser extent South Carolina, actually DO play Auburn, LSU,
and Texas A&M, respectively every season.
Therefore, those programs gobbling up talent is actually a good thing for Tennessee as it makes it
more likely that they deal UT’s East rivals a loss.
Point V: Tennessee’s
class would have ranked #2 in the Big 10, #2 in the ACC, and #1 in both the Big
12 and Pac10. Does that matter, when
Tennessee isn’t in those conferences?
Well, the SEC got one team in the College Football Playoff (a step down
from the two the conference has gotten in the recent past) and two teams in NY6
bowls. Alabama, long the king of college
football and the SEC, is not one of these three teams but is still playing in
the highly acclaimed Citrus Bowl at 10-2 and Auburn at 9-3is in the Outback Bowl.
Point being,
Point VI: Further
to Point V, compare Tennessee’s #9 class with that of its next four Power Five
nonconference opponents and decide for yourself if that ranking will matter for
the Vols:
2020 (probably too soon for the 2020 class to really
matter): Oklahoma #12
2021 Pittsburgh #47
2022 Pittsburgh #47
2023 BYU #82
So while Tennessee could conceivably move up in the final rankings if it manages to close out with some of its targets – namely Auburn commitment DL Jay Hardy and Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith – the 2020 class is already one that has added substantially more talent and depth to the program. And regardless of who sits in the eight spots in front, that’s a meaningful win for the Vols program.
It’s one thing to hit four game-winners (or send-it-to-overtimers) in your career. Lamonte Turner hit the biggest shot in three of Tennessee’s biggest wins the last two years, plus a fourth last month that could prove incredibly helpful as this team now scrambles for the bracket:
The Purdue win in the Bahamas started all of this. The win at Rupp was 2018’s biggest. And the win over Kentucky in the 2019 SEC Tournament doesn’t earn any banners like an SEC title or the Sweet 16, but was a crowning achievement for this program and its last two teams.
This team is 8-3 and not 7-4 in part because Lamonte splashed that three against VCU, giving Tennessee a pair of Top 50 wins in KenPom. We will need them.
Turner’s Tennessee career is over, shut down with upcoming shoulder surgery that will hopefully enable his basketball career to continue on a professional level. The timing is jarring, but the news not all that surprising; we’ve watched Lamonte struggle with his shoulder for multiple seasons. To his credit, as we pointed out after the Cincinnati loss, each time he got better as the year went along: one of the best three-point shooters in the SEC in 2018, one of the best two-point shooters in the SEC in 2019. But I’m sure at a certain point there’s no getting better without shutting it all down.
It’s funny how quickly things can change: gone, just like that, are five of the six faces that made the last two years so very memorable. Thanks in large part to the performances of those teams, new faces we hope will be equally memorable are on the way next season.
In the middle is the rest of this season: one senior in Jordan Bowden, and only eight scholarship players left on the roster. Let’s push pause on point guard Santiago Vescovi, who will be eligible to play after the fall semester (similar to Jarnell Stokes as a freshman). Barnes originally said there was little chance he played this season; those chances hit a growth spurt over the weekend.
But even if you don’t include Vescovi in this group, next season you’ll have Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, Corey Walker, Uros Plavsic, and Oregon transfer Victor Bailey. Those five plus Vescovi and Josiah James will make for a core group of seven players that weren’t around in 2019. Fulkerson and Pons will be seniors; that’s nine.
I point that out to say this: the guys Tennessee will have to rely on right now – Olivier Nkamhoua, Davonte Gaines, Drew Pember, Jalen Johnson – have an opportunity to carve out a bigger role for themselves this season, before the body count ups the competition for everyone next season. There will be a separate conversation about finding the right mix with so many new faces next season. For now, these eight players – Bowden, James, Fulkerson, Pons, Nkamhoua, Gaines, Pember, and Johnson (plus Vescovi, maybe) – have the rest of the 2020 season in front of them.
Tennessee is a six seed in the December 20 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 18 brackets that have been updated since the Cincinnati loss at anywhere from a five to an eleven seed. The Vols host Wisconsin (#51 KenPom) on Saturday and travel to Kansas on January 25 in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. Everything else is the SEC.
Cincinnati wasn’t a great loss, but the Vols made it through the non-conference without any truly bad losses. And there are really only two options for such a thing in the SEC: first-year coaches at Texas A&M, who the Vols face in Knoxville, and Vanderbilt, who the Vols play twice. Those two teams currently hover around 140th in KenPom. The league doesn’t appear to have an elite team; we’ll see about Auburn, who’s 11-0 but hasn’t played anyone better than NC State (36th in KenPom). The Tigers have run through the Bruce Pearl special of really good mid-majors, beating Davidson, Colgate, New Mexico, Richmond, Furman, and Saint Louis.
Still, while there are no SEC teams in the KenPom Top 10, the league’s top tier places four teams in the Top 30 plus Arkansas at 37. Everyone other than A&M and Vanderbilt is in the Top 90.
We’ll preview the conference more fully after Wisconsin, but I say all that to say this: Tennessee just needs wins. The Vols beat Washington and VCU and avoided catastrophe. A 12-8 finish gets Tennessee to 20-11 on the year. The schedule and the league should be good enough that I don’t think we’ll end up arguing about which wins they did or didn’t get if it comes down to the bubble (though keep in mind, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is insanely back-loaded; some of this conversation will just have to wait until mid-February).
And right now, just making the tournament is a good goal for this team. We would’ve been talking about a rebuilding year from the beginning if Lamonte wasn’t going to be around. Now, it’s rebuilding on the fly. How might it look without #1 out there?
The first question is simple math. In every game that’s been in doubt in the second half this season (other than Cincinnati when he picked up two fouls early), Lamonte has played between 36-40 minutes. Against the Bearcats, Davonte Gaines was the beneficiary in the first half: 17 minutes and four points, all at the stripe. Jalen Johnson has more experience and might get the start against the Badgers, but the coaching staff appears to trust Gaines more already.
Tennessee averages right at 16 assists per game, and is eighth nationally in assist percentage. Lamonte was responsible for more than seven assists per game. So now, who facilitates the offense?
Again, put a pin in Vescovi. Your other options for primary ball-handler are Jordan Bowden and Josiah James. Many of us assumed coming into the year that James would get backup point guard minutes, but in big games Lamonte just basically played the whole time. That’s one question with Josiah: is he the point guard next year? If that’s the idea, he’s about to get a lot of practice. The alternative is Bowden, who went from being the third scoring option on the floor to the first. His three-point percentage is still solid (37.3%), but his effective field goal percentage is down from last year because his looks have been much more difficult. What changes with his game if you put the ball in his hands much more often? Can one or both of these guys still run Tennessee’s offense in a way that creates non-difficult opportunities for Fulkerson and Pons?
Even before Lamonte got hurt, the Memphis and Cincinnati games showed, in good and bad ways, how much this team needs its defense. Lamonte was Tennessee’s best perimeter defender in terms of forcing turnovers both this year and last year. This is probably the biggest question for Davonte Gaines, Jalen Johnson, and anyone else getting ready to play more minutes: where are you on this end of the floor?
More on Wisconsin after Christmas, but the Badgers do play at Tennessee’s pace and rely on 6’11” center Nate Reuvers for a lot of what they do. We’ll learn more about what the Vols can do without Turner against strong guard play when LSU comes to town the following Saturday.
Turner’s absence is heartbreaking, but he leaves with incredible memories behind and hopefully a professional basketball future ahead. Tennessee as a team has the same memories in the past and a bright hope for the future. In the now, this team will try to make the tournament while answering big questions for the future. It’s an interesting moment for Josiah James, and a big opportunity for Davonte Gaines, Jalen Johnson, and everyone else with a chance to make a name for themselves a little earlier than they thought.
Nothing is ever perfect, and despite a helluva day for Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols on Wednesday there are certain things that you know a coach as maniacally focused on recruiting as he is will look to improve. Along with perhaps upgrading the staff from a recruiting perspective, from this vantage point one thing Tennessee should look at is the amount of official visits used in the spring and summer. With the advent of the Early Signing Period in the class of 2018, using official visits earlier and earlier in the cycle has become more commonplace. And that makes sense – schools are looking to lock down their top targets early, some kids want to finish the recruiting process early, and in particular spring games and thematic weekends (cookouts, paint ball, pool parties, etc) during the summer are showcase weekends to host official visitors. That said, when looking at who Tennessee has brought in for official visits during the spring and summer for the classes of 2019 and 2020 (Pruitt’s two opportunities) those OV weekends have been, objectively speaking, failures. Take a look below:
Class of 2019
April 18th (Orange and White Game)
Wanya Morris (signed with Tennessee)
Khris Bogle (signed with Florida)
Bryce Beinhart (signed with Nebraska)
Jalen Curry (signed with Arizona)
April 27th
Anthony Bradford (signed with LSU)
June 1st
Warren Burrell (signed with Tennessee)
June 8th
Trezeman Marshall (signed with UGA)
Mike Morris (signed with Michigan)
So, for the class of 2019, Tennessee brought eight
prospects in for OVs during the spring and summer and signed two of them, a 25%
hit rate. Not only that, but the Vols
were deep in the recruitments for both Bogle and Marshall until the bitter end,
but both took very late OVs to the schools they respectively signed with
whereas Tennessee had used its OV over a half year before they each signed.
Class of 2020
April 12th (Orange & White Game)
Dominic Bailey (signed with Tennessee)
Deontae Craig (signed with Iowa)
EJ Williams (signed with Clemson)
Kitan Crawford (signed with Texas)
Justin Rogers (signed with Kentucky)
Cooper Mays (signed with Tennessee)
June 7th
Mordecai McDaniel (Committed to UT in August
but flipped to UF)
Haynes King (signed with Texas A&M)
June 14th (Pool Party)
James Robinson (signed with Tennessee)
Xavier Hill (signed with LSU)
Darrion Henry (signed with OSU)
Ty Jordan (signed with Utah)
Kourt Williams (signed with OSU)
June 21st
Blayne Toll (signed with Arkansas)
Rakim Jarrett (signed with Maryland after flipping
from LSU)
Caziah Holmes (signed with PSU)
Chris Morris (signed with Texas A&M)
Richie Leonard (signed with UF)
After batting 25% (2/8) in 2019 on spring/summer
official visits, Tennessee did even worse in 2020 signing three of the eighteen
official visitors for a 17% hit rate.
And one of those commitments (Bailey) was already committed when he took
his OV to Tennessee, and another (Mays) was a very heavy lean when he took his
OV. That’s…not good. Now, in both years Tennessee chose not to
heavily pursue some of these prospects and two other caveats to this exercise are
1) sometimes a prospect says I want to take my OV now and you have no choices so
you take your shot and hope for the best (e.g., EJ Williams), and 2) some of the
above were likely always going to the schools they ended up with (e.g., Darrion Henry). But even considering all of that, this
strategy objectively has not worked for Pruitt and Tennessee.
Therefore, this should be addressed starting with the class of 2021 cycle. The Orange and White Game weekend is a fantastic weekend to have prospects see Knoxville, Tennessee’s campus, and Vol Nation in all its glory. And themed weekends during the summer are also great ways to show players the program and the campus while also showing them a different side of Tennessee’s coaching staff. All great stuff, and all opportunities to build out a bigtime class. But doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, and when that thing is proven to not work it also is counterproductive. What’s been proven to work for Tennessee is inseason OVs, where the Vol Walk and the Vol Navy and 102,45mf’in5 show kids what Tennessee football is all about. And barring that, Tennessee has done well with OVs between the end of the season and the start of the ESP, when once again everything that is great about Tennessee’s program can be showcased. So along with potentially a better recruiting staff (TBD), another year for Pruitt and his core staff to have built relationships and gotten 2021 kids on campus, and an upward trend for the program not seen since the end of the 2015 season (which proved to be a bit of a mirage), perhaps a change in official visit strategy will also help to sign what should be Pruitt’s best class in his tenure as the Head Coach at Tennessee.
On December 31, 2009, I was headed back from Atlanta after a loss to Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. We couldn’t find a countdown on the radio in English, so my friend and I welcomed in the new decade in Spanish. The Hokies pulled away late to win 37-14, but there was plenty of optimism for Lane Kiffin in year two. Earlier in the day Bruce Pearl’s Vols won at Memphis. Things had been difficult in moving on from Fulmer, but we were hopeful order would be restored soon.
January 1, 2010 began with four basketball Vols getting arrested. Nine days later the Vols beat #1 Kansas without those players. Two days later, Kiffin left in the middle of the night. And the 2010’s were off and running.
It hasn’t been what any of us wanted ten years ago. The Gator Bowl, assigned to the 2019 season, will decide if the Vols finish above or below .500 for the decade. The basketball Vols made it back to number one and won another conference crown, but we’re still waiting for a second trip to the Elite Eight and our first to the Final Four. And everything changed for the Lady Vols, who won national titles in 2007 and 2008 but haven’t seen the Final Four since.
The craziness of those first dozen days set the tone for much of what would follow. But even in these turbulent years, there have been moments to celebrate. Here, in chronological order, are our favorite things from the last ten years:
The Elite Eight
I’ve been writing on the Vols for 14 years, and the 2009-10 basketball season is still my favorite story. The win over Kansas wasn’t just without four players, but saw just 14 minutes from J.P. Prince and 19 from Wayne Chism due to foul trouble. And the Vols won anyway, thanks to 9-of-18 from the arc including 4-of-6 from Renaldo Woolridge.
We’re all used to John Calipari at Kentucky and one-and-dones today, but in 2010 – Calipari’s first season in Lexington – that John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins group of UK players were rock stars. They came to Knoxville 27-1, and left 27-2.
And then to break through against two-seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16 after the crushing loss to the Buckeyes three years earlier, behind 22 points and 11 rebounds from Wayne Chism. The Vols let Evan Turner have his (31 points), but absolutely locked down the rest of Ohio State’s options. The 2010 Vols finished 28-9, were a six seed in the tournament, and five Tennessee teams since 2006 have finished with a higher rating in KenPom. But no one danced longer.
Tyler Bray vs Cincinnati
34-of-41 for 405 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions. Justin Hunter: 10 catches for 156. Da’Rick Rogers: 10 for 100. It all came crashing down to injury the next few weeks, but in this moment – a 45-23 win over Butch Jones and a Cincinnati team that finished the year ranked – other than the first half of the 2016 season, I’m not sure I ever walked out of Neyland Stadium more confident that we were “back” at any point this decade.
Cordarrelle Patterson
You forget how spectacular he was because we went 5-7 and spent most of the year talking about Derek Dooley, but remember this (and maybe mute your sound):
Two Weeks in February 2013
The Vols were 13-10 (5-6) coming to the end of Cuonzo Martin’s second season. And then, in four consecutive games:
Beat Kentucky by thirty (30) points
Beat LSU behind 34 points from Jordan McRae
Beat Texas A&M in four overtimes
Beat #8 Florida
I’m sure Cuonzo and many of us would call the run to the Sweet 16 from Dayton the peak of his tenure in Knoxville. But because so many people had jumped ship by that point, these end of these two weeks was the time you felt most confident in him. The Vols lost at Georgia, won two more to close out the regular season, lost in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and were again broken by the bubble. It’s hard to make lasting memories if your season doesn’t end in the NCAA Tournament, but these four games were a joy individually and felt like they could have been even more collectively.
Josh Dobbs Arrives at South Carolina
If you want the most rewatchable game of the decade – one not tied to any “yeah, but…” conversations like 2016 – it’s Tennessee at South Carolina in 2014.
Dobbs in this game: 23-of-40 for 301 yards passing, plus 24 carries for 166 yards rushing, five total touchdowns. Whatever you think of whatever happened with Butch Jones, the things we first wanted to believe about Dobbs on this night generally came true. An incredible individual game, enabling the Vols to once again get the last word on Steve Spurrier, and an initial step to one of the best Tennessee careers of the decade.
Josh Richardson
When the decade began, C.J. Watson was Tennessee’s lone NBA representative. Tobias Harris would join him in 2011 after a one-and-done campaign. From Cuonzo’s teams, no one would’ve picked Richardson to have the best NBA career. But I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee player get better from one year to the next in a four-year career like this:
Year
PPG
Minutes
3PT%
FT%
2012
2.9
16
23.7
64
2013
7.9
30.7
21.4
69.2
2014
10.3
30.4
34
79.3
2015
16
36.3
35.9
79.8
The Outback Bowl & 2016 Off-Season
Beating Northwestern 45-6 doesn’t doesn’t ring any bells around here despite the kind of decade we’ve had, though it’s still Tennessee’s most dominant win over a ranked team since 1990. And the Outback Bowl is still Tennessee’s most prestigious destination since playing in the Cotton following the 2004 season.
But what that win enabled for the next eight months sure was fun.
And despite what happened in the second half of 2016, that preseason hype was earned by the near misses of 2015. The Vols were preseason #7 using a magazine consensus. It’s been a long time, before and after, since we’ve been able to anticipate that kind of year.
One Half of That Kind of Year
All of them come with a tinge of disappointment for the way 2016 ended, but all three are still incredibly unique:
The Battle at Bristol, the all-time attendance record for college football
The only win over Florida since 2004 and the second-largest comeback in Neyland Stadium history
The Hail Mary, which to my knowledge still doubles as Tennessee’s only walk-off win on an offensive touchdown in regulation in school history
As we wrote a couple of times in the midst of this stretch, getting down 14-0 in the largest attended football game in human history was only the fourth-most-stressful thing to happen to Tennessee in the first five games.
You can argue Jauan Jennings’ catch is both the apex of that season and the decade in football, the Vols using up the last of their magic. But it joins, “Did you turn off The Miracle at South Bend?” and “Did you try to leave the stadium before Stoerner fumbled?” as one of the best “Where were you when it happened?” moments in my Tennessee lifetime.
Fulmer’s Return
Bad seasons come and go, but the most vulnerable Tennessee’s athletic department has been in my lifetime was in the aftermath of Schiano Sunday after John Currie was fired. It only lasted a few hours, but to have no idea who’s in charge or who would be in charge after a week of insanity at the end of a decade of the same…it was a nervous moment.
The answer was Fulmer, who to this day gives me comfort on a simple, human level: I know the guy in charge of the thing I love loves it even more than I do.
For whatever experience I’ve gained in my 38 years or things I’ve learned in writing about the Vols for 14 years, that simple truth stays around. You don’t have to have that dynamic to be successful. But there’s an undeniable confidence when you do have it. And at the end of the craziest week at the end of the worst football season in program history, I’m still glad Phillip Fulmer was holding the keys.
Basketball Back on the National Level
In the midst of all the football insanity, I think the most divisive Tennessee conversation of this decade was still Cuonzo Martin by a healthy margin. Even in defending him the way I and others did, there was a stubborn belief that Bruce Pearl – even if we believed he was never coming back here – represented Tennessee’s highest ceiling.
Tennessee lucked into Rick Barnes. But in a decade when both chemistry and timing worked so hard and so often against us, the Vols got that one absolutely right.
The November 2017 win over Purdue was quickly forgotten in the midst of Schiano Sunday, but it started everything we’re enjoying now: 26-9 with an SEC title in 2018, 31-6 with a month at number one and a Sweet 16 in 2019, and the number four recruiting class in the nation for next season. Along the way (and thanks to UCLA), Tennessee and Phillip Fulmer upped Barnes’ salary to put the Vols in elite program territory in men’s basketball.
Barnes is 6-4 against Kentucky, and sent three Vols to the NBA Draft last season. Grant Williams is probably Tennessee’s athlete of the decade. Along the way there have been memorable individual plays…
…and far more wins the whole team shares. From Purdue to the first win at Rupp since 2006 in 2018, then taking down #1 Gonzaga – the best team Tennessee has beaten in the KenPom era – embarrassing Kentucky in Knoxville, and getting another 2-1 season advantage on the Cats in the SEC Tournament last year. If what Pearl’s teams did was the best positive story of Tennessee’s last decade, what Barnes and his teams are doing now is the best positive story of this one.
You Just Never Know
All the years, all the games, and sometimes you still get a loss to Georgia State in the opener and the first time the Vols covered the spread six weeks in a row since 1990 in the same season.
Football ends the decade no closer to the mountaintop than when it began: a 7-5 regular season heading to a bowl game, with positive momentum in recruiting and optimism for the future. We still don’t know.
But this year taught us we also never know, not really. And that’s one of the great things about sports. This decade saw a six seed make it one possession from the Final Four, our most talented football teams in 2012 and 2015-16 underachieve, a group of three-stars spend a month ranked number one, and a little bit of everything from this football season.
More than anything, this decade reinforces an old truth: we come back, year after year, not for the winning – though that’s preferable! – but for the experience itself.
So here’s to another ten years of great stories, great characters, and great memories. We’re never boring. And we’re always here.
We’ll have more on the various position groups in Tennessee’s
2020 class in the coming days, but below are some high level thoughts:
Early Signing Day has de factor become THE signing day, and
Coach Jeremy Pruitt and staff made sure they locked up all of their commitments
(sans OL Kyree Miller, who they apparently
encouraged to wait…hint hint) and also signed all five of their top uncommitted
targets coming into the day. It was a
no-doubt banner day for the Vols and even if they sign no more prospects the 2020
roster is now deeper and more talented across the board than it was in 2019.
At the same time, while one could argue whether or not the
Vols closed any of the gap between itself and the Alabama/Georgia/LSU
triumvirate at the top of the league – and the best argument in the affirmative
is that those programs simply can’t get that much more talented while Tennessee
has a lot of room to grow – what’s very clear is that Tennessee widened the gap
between itself and the group of schools in the SEC East that it jumped in 2019. In particular, Missouri and Vanderbilt signed
classes that simply aren’t going to cut it in the SEC. And while UK and South Carolina have respectable
classes and some really strong position groups (e.g., UK did well on both
lines) those classes would have Vol fans burning mattresses if they were in
Orange and White. Arkansas, Tennessee’s
rotational SEC West opponent in 2020, did nothing to make one think that on top
of their already bad roster and coaching-change-driven attrition that they will
be anywhere close to the Vols talent wise.
Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis and only rightful partner
at the top of the SEC East with Georgia, also had a strong class. Using Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man
class finished 7th in the
country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58,
while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero
5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen
4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52.
So, yeah, pretty much equal to each other in objective metrics. Pruitt will have to outcoach and outdevelop Head
Gator Dan Mullen in order to overtake the Gators.
While we wait to hear whether or not TE Darnell Washington signed at all and if so whether it was with
Tennessee or Georgia, either way there are only a handful of real difference
makers left in the 2020 class that Tennessee could realistically sign in February. At the very top of the short list of
difference makers is of course is Auburn DL commitment Jay Hardy. Everyone knows
the story – the fact that he didn’t sign with Auburn, whether his plan was always
to sign in February or not, is a great indicator that the Vols have a massive
opportunity to flip him and add to an already strong DL haul. Other than him, it seems like Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith is the other main target
until someone else pops up, and with Florida having already used its official
visit with him in December and his brother Camryn having accepted a PWO offer
from Tennessee, the Vols are likely in the driver’s seat should they choose to be. Beckwith’s issue (or, more accurately, this
writer’s issue with Beckwith) is that he clearly loves basketball more than he
loves football. It just so happens that while
he’s a very good basketball player capable of realistically playing lower-level
ball in college, he’s clearly viewed as a bigtime football prospect as evidenced
by offers from the likes of the Vols and the Gators. So that will have to work itself out one way
or the other. Tennessee signed an
outstanding group of playmakers in WRs Jalin
Hyatt and Jimmy Calloway to go
with QB/ATH Jimmy Holiday, but
Beckwith’s film is intriguing in that you can squint and see the kind of
massive WR that doesn’t exist very often in college football. Like Holiday, he’s be an unusual chess piece
for OC Jim Chaney to play with in his search to make Tennessee’s offense more
dynamic and explosive.
If one agrees that other than those handful above there just
aren’t really any unsigned prospects that are going to move the needle for the
Vols, then the question becomes what is the best use of the available scholarships. Rolling them over to a 2021 class that should be Pruitt’s best since he began
his tenure in Knoxville given the upward trajectory of the program, the
recruiting staff he currently has (even before any potential upgrades in that area)
as well as an unusually strong crop of instate talent, is a viable option. The other is making prudent use of the
Transfer Portal. “Prudent” is the operative
word here, and in this case it translates to “former elite prospects who are
leaving elite programs.” For example,
Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs. That’s
the kind of talent, whether it is immediately available or you have to wait a
year, that’s worth using a scholarship on.
A contra example would be (and we mean no disrespect) Madre London. Tennessee might not yet have a roster capable
of winning the SEC, but it also no longer has positions of simply glaring need
where a random Grad Transfer could just step in and immediately start. This isn’t Georgia Tech with Ryan Johnson or Central
Florida and UCF. Now, currently there aren’t
many of those. Right now, there is
recent UGA portaler DE Robert Beal or
Alabama transfer DB Scooby Carter
and that’s about it. After the bowl
games there are likely to be more that shake out though, and that’s the kind of
talent Tennessee should be focused on adding with its remaining openings.
Lamonte Turner’s shoulder is an issue that may not go away. I hate that for him most of all; via KenPom, Turner shot 45.2% in conference play from the arc in 2018, second-best in the SEC. Then he shot 61% from inside the arc in league play last year, seventh-best. In both cases he got better as the year went along, so maybe there’s some hope there. But this year he’s shooting 23.4% from the arc (11-of-47) and 32.9% inside it. He’s still 11th nationally in assist rate, but when he’s removed as a scoring option those assists get much harder to come by as defenses adjust elsewhere.
Three point shooting again wasn’t great – 3-of-15 – but at least this time the Vols didn’t settle for 26+. After starting the season hot as a team, now only Jordan Bowden (36.7% and working hard for a clean look) and Yves Pons (32.3%) are above 30% from the arc; the Vols are at 29.7% as a team, 280th nationally. Tennessee has played a handful of really good defenses, but Cincinnati was not among them.
Tennessee’s own defense, great all year, failed them last night. The Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor with an effective field goal percentage of 60.9%. Only Purdue, with their flame-throwing 15 threes, hit better than 60% eFG% against the Vols last season, when defense didn’t have to be such a priority. This team now has little choice to prioritize anything else.
One thing that might encompass all of this: everyone playing a new role. Lamonte, shoulder at whatever percentage, is carrying an incredible load at point guard. Bowden, the beneficiary of being the third-through-fifth option last season depending on who else was on the floor, is now asked to be the primary. When Tennessee’s offense has worked well – Washington and VCU – the formula has included some combination of Bowden hitting shots, Turner getting to the free throw line, and consistent inside scoring from Pons (Washington) or Fulkerson (VCU). We were hopeful this model could win games while Josiah James came along and the freshmen off the bench sorted themselves out.
But when that formula gets disrupted, defense is the only option. It genuinely gave Tennessee a chance to beat Memphis anyway. When defense goes away, there’s little the Vols can do until a new formula arrives or a freshman emerges. Last night Cincinnati’s two best players had four fouls early in the second half. It made little difference.
The preseason thought was a split of the six big non-conference games before Kansas would earn a “that’s about right” head nod. When the Vols handled Washington, lost to Florida State for obvious turnover-related reasons, then beat VCU while Cincinnati and Wisconsin struggled, we could get appropriately greedy. That early split is still available if the Vols beat Wisconsin, but as always, we’re adjusting on the fly.
The Vols dropped to 29th in KenPom (55th offense, 19th defense), which projects them to finish 20-11 in the regular season. The Vols host Jacksonville State on Saturday, then Wisconsin the following Saturday, then SEC play begins with a visit from LSU (shout out to Steve Forbes) on Saturday, January 4. The Vols go to Kansas in late January for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
One point we’ll make when we get to league play: for the second year in a row, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded. The best non-Vol teams in the league – Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas – don’t appear on the schedule at all until February 8 (Cats in Knoxville), and Tennessee’s last five games are exclusively against that tier (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). So whatever we think we’re learning about this team in league play will come with a, “Well, we’ll see…”. Tennessee can change a lot of its bracket fate, good or bad, in those last three weeks. Until then, and as usual, everything is about getting better:
#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We made this schedule knowing we might be in this position. We knew it was possible. But that’s not a reason to play more buy games. That’s even more reason to play a schedule like ours. Let’s see what we’ve got early and then fix it.
I’m stealing that line from old friend of the blog Chris Pendley, and it’s true. If the Vols shot 4-of-26 from three in just about any other game and still almost win, you shrug your shoulders and move on to the next one. If the Vols continue to take 26 threes per game or make only four of them, then you panic. It’s early, but right now the Vols sit 282nd in KenPom’s luck ratings.
Tennessee is 2-2 in marquee non-conference affairs. The two that remain before the calendar turns to 2020 were originally thought to be the biggest tests. But while the Vols are on pace for about what we thought they’d be – still projecting at 21 regular season wins in KenPom, a six seed in the Bracket Matrix, 21st in the AP poll and 25th in NET – Cincinnati and Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worst.
The Rick Barnes What-If Bowl
With Barnes in Knoxville, Mick Cronin left Cincinnati after 13 years and took the UCLA job.
(Quick sidenote: I still do a lot of reading from SB Nation blogs, especially when we’re playing teams outside the SEC. If you’ve followed us throughout the years at Rocky Top Talk, here, or enjoy the good work done by fans of other teams writing in a freelance capacity, you might be interested to learn more about what’s happening to those who write for California-based teams. Bruins Nation was one of the first SB Nation sites I interacted with after starting at Rocky Top Talk when Kiffin was hired, and always found good writing and analysis there whenever I was curious about something happening at UCLA. All the best to their team.)
Steve Alford’s last two years at Westwood saw a loss in Dayton and a 17-16 finish. Mick Cronin is 7-4 in the early stages there. Meanwhile, John Brannen is in his first year at Cincinnati after four years and two NCAA Tournament appearances at Northern Kentucky.
We almost ran into these guys in each of the last two seasons. Last year the Bearcats lost to Iowa in the first round before we beat the Hawkeyes in the second. And two years ago Cincinnati was the two seed in our region, falling to Nevada in round two the same day we lost to Loyola Chicago.
They brought back their top three scorers, but have stumbled out of the gates. Some of it is strength of schedule: losses on the road to usually-good Xavier and an unusually-good Ohio State team, currently number one in KenPom. Cincinnati also did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before: three straight overtime games, including a loss to Bowling Green and wins over Valparaiso and UNLV. Their last game was particularly costly: Colgate – who is feisty, as we’ll attest to – won at Cincinnati as a result of this endgame sequence:
Disaster of a finish for Cincinnati, which will host Tennessee on Wednesday. The Bearcats lost to Colgate by 1. pic.twitter.com/1KQkBJFZns
The thought coming into the year was these six teams – Washington, Florida State, VCU/Purdue, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin – were all on Tennessee’s level, all somewhere between a 4-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the Bracket Matrix this week, it mostly holds up: the Vols at six, Washington at eight, Florida State at four, VCU down a bit at 10, Memphis at five. But Cincinnati appears in just one entry in the matrix, and Wisconsin – 5-5 and headed to Knoxville on December 28 – is in just three (of 27).
First-Year Problems (and Solutions?)
The Bearcats returned leading scorer Jarron Cumberland (18.8 per game last year), added his cousin Jaevin as a grad transfer from Oakland, and brought back guard Keith Williams and 6’8″ forward Tre Scott, all upperclassmen. But this team has problems that look like what a first-year coach might expect: after leading the nation in fewest steals allowed in 2019, Cincinnati is 281st in turnover percentage this season and 323rd in non-steal turnovers.
There’s also the emergence of 7’1″ Chris Vogt who transferred in with Brannen from Northern Kentucky. After playing less than 20 minutes in the first two games, he’s emerged as a primary option: double figure scoring in every game after the opener at Ohio State, 16 points in 26 minutes against Colgate, 24th nationally in effective field goal percentage. Foul trouble can be an issue with him, but we’ll yet again get to see the Vols at a size disadvantage.
Like the Memphis game, there’s a part of me that wants to type, “This should be a game Tennessee’s veterans win.” Tennessee’s defense – now 11th nationally in KenPom and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed – can take advantage of a turnover-prone team still learning a new system. Having played Ohio State, the Bearcats won’t be intimidated by the #21 Vols. But Tennessee’s best basketball this season won’t be about intimidation. If the mantra after Florida State was straightforward, not spectacular, I think it’s still true after Memphis…I’d just add, “And don’t miss 22 threes.”
We’ll see what we learned at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ESPN2, or if any learning was necessary if the Vols can knock down open threes.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.
The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.
The goals for the Vols:
Defend without fouling.
Shoot better than they did Saturday.
Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.
My prediction: Tennessee 68, Cincinnati 64
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: Most like VCU, and quite a bit better shooting the ball than Tennessee.
Turnover %
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Most like prior opponent Florida A&M in this category, the Bearcats are happy to turn the ball over. Well, maybe not happy, but they’ll do it. Tennessee’s better.
Offensive Rebound %
Team
OR%
Rank
Mississippi St.
40
2
LSU
37.2
6
Tennessee
28.9
153
Conclusion: Cincinnati is not bad at rebounding the ball (most like former opponent UNC Asheville), but Tennessee’s better.
Free Throw Rate
Team
FTRate
Rank
Cincinnati
37
68
Mississippi St.
36.9
69
Mississippi
36.5
74
Tennessee
34
129
Conclusion: Yikes. The Bearcats are better at getting to the free throw line than any team we’ve played to date, including Memphis, which was also in the Top 15. The Vols are not bad at this, but man, these guys have a Fast Pass to the stripe.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 47.9 (No. 222) (down from 50.6 (No. 131)), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.8 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 41.5 (No. 12) Saturday when the Vols put up a stench of a shooting percentage.
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ eFG% is 50.3 (No. 142), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 40.8 (No. 5).
Conclusions
The Bearcats are no slouches at defending, but they’re not up to the level of Memphis, so Tennessee should do better tonight than they did Saturday shooting the ball. And their shooting percentage defense is still elite.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.6 (No. 181), up from 20.3 (No. 218) last week. The Bearcats’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.9 (No. 210). Memphis’ was 23.3 (No. 41) heading into last Saturday’s game.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati’s turnover % is 21.6 (No. 281) (Memphis’ was 19.7 (No. 187)), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.8 (No. 111), up from 20.2 (No. 142).
Conclusions
Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover department this evening.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 31.2 (No. 88), which is down from 32.3 (No. 70) Saturday. Cincinnati’s defense in that category is 26.4 (No. 100). That makes them better than Memphis, which was 31.1 (No. 271) prior to Saturday’s game.
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ OR% is 30.2 (No. 116) (Memphis’ was 34.8 (No. 31)), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.7 (No. 41).
Conclusions
This looks pretty even to me on Tennessee’s side of the court, and the Vols appear to have a slight advantage on the Bearcats’ side.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.8 (No. 57) (down from 40 (No. 42)), while Cincinnati’s defense against that is 26.5 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 35.3 (No. 248).
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Bearcats’ FT Rate is 45.7 (No. 5), compared to Memphis’, which was 44.9 (No. 6). Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.4 (No. 77), up from 26.8 (No. 84).
Conclusions
These guys are much better than Memphis at keeping you off the foul line, and they are elite at getting there themselves. The Vols are going to have to figure out how to defend without breathing on them or looking at them.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.
The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.
The goals for the Vols:
Defend without fouling.
Shoot better than they did Saturday.
Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.
