What’s Next Without Lamonte?

It’s one thing to hit four game-winners (or send-it-to-overtimers) in your career. Lamonte Turner hit the biggest shot in three of Tennessee’s biggest wins the last two years, plus a fourth last month that could prove incredibly helpful as this team now scrambles for the bracket:

The Purdue win in the Bahamas started all of this. The win at Rupp was 2018’s biggest. And the win over Kentucky in the 2019 SEC Tournament doesn’t earn any banners like an SEC title or the Sweet 16, but was a crowning achievement for this program and its last two teams.

This team is 8-3 and not 7-4 in part because Lamonte splashed that three against VCU, giving Tennessee a pair of Top 50 wins in KenPom. We will need them.

Turner’s Tennessee career is over, shut down with upcoming shoulder surgery that will hopefully enable his basketball career to continue on a professional level. The timing is jarring, but the news not all that surprising; we’ve watched Lamonte struggle with his shoulder for multiple seasons. To his credit, as we pointed out after the Cincinnati loss, each time he got better as the year went along: one of the best three-point shooters in the SEC in 2018, one of the best two-point shooters in the SEC in 2019. But I’m sure at a certain point there’s no getting better without shutting it all down.

It’s funny how quickly things can change: gone, just like that, are five of the six faces that made the last two years so very memorable. Thanks in large part to the performances of those teams, new faces we hope will be equally memorable are on the way next season.

In the middle is the rest of this season: one senior in Jordan Bowden, and only eight scholarship players left on the roster. Let’s push pause on point guard Santiago Vescovi, who will be eligible to play after the fall semester (similar to Jarnell Stokes as a freshman). Barnes originally said there was little chance he played this season; those chances hit a growth spurt over the weekend.

But even if you don’t include Vescovi in this group, next season you’ll have Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, Corey Walker, Uros Plavsic, and Oregon transfer Victor Bailey. Those five plus Vescovi and Josiah James will make for a core group of seven players that weren’t around in 2019. Fulkerson and Pons will be seniors; that’s nine.

I point that out to say this: the guys Tennessee will have to rely on right now – Olivier Nkamhoua, Davonte Gaines, Drew Pember, Jalen Johnson – have an opportunity to carve out a bigger role for themselves this season, before the body count ups the competition for everyone next season. There will be a separate conversation about finding the right mix with so many new faces next season. For now, these eight players – Bowden, James, Fulkerson, Pons, Nkamhoua, Gaines, Pember, and Johnson (plus Vescovi, maybe) – have the rest of the 2020 season in front of them.

Tennessee is a six seed in the December 20 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 18 brackets that have been updated since the Cincinnati loss at anywhere from a five to an eleven seed. The Vols host Wisconsin (#51 KenPom) on Saturday and travel to Kansas on January 25 in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. Everything else is the SEC.

Cincinnati wasn’t a great loss, but the Vols made it through the non-conference without any truly bad losses. And there are really only two options for such a thing in the SEC: first-year coaches at Texas A&M, who the Vols face in Knoxville, and Vanderbilt, who the Vols play twice. Those two teams currently hover around 140th in KenPom. The league doesn’t appear to have an elite team; we’ll see about Auburn, who’s 11-0 but hasn’t played anyone better than NC State (36th in KenPom). The Tigers have run through the Bruce Pearl special of really good mid-majors, beating Davidson, Colgate, New Mexico, Richmond, Furman, and Saint Louis.

Still, while there are no SEC teams in the KenPom Top 10, the league’s top tier places four teams in the Top 30 plus Arkansas at 37. Everyone other than A&M and Vanderbilt is in the Top 90.

We’ll preview the conference more fully after Wisconsin, but I say all that to say this: Tennessee just needs wins. The Vols beat Washington and VCU and avoided catastrophe. A 12-8 finish gets Tennessee to 20-11 on the year. The schedule and the league should be good enough that I don’t think we’ll end up arguing about which wins they did or didn’t get if it comes down to the bubble (though keep in mind, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is insanely back-loaded; some of this conversation will just have to wait until mid-February).

And right now, just making the tournament is a good goal for this team. We would’ve been talking about a rebuilding year from the beginning if Lamonte wasn’t going to be around. Now, it’s rebuilding on the fly. How might it look without #1 out there?

The first question is simple math. In every game that’s been in doubt in the second half this season (other than Cincinnati when he picked up two fouls early), Lamonte has played between 36-40 minutes. Against the Bearcats, Davonte Gaines was the beneficiary in the first half: 17 minutes and four points, all at the stripe. Jalen Johnson has more experience and might get the start against the Badgers, but the coaching staff appears to trust Gaines more already.

Tennessee averages right at 16 assists per game, and is eighth nationally in assist percentage. Lamonte was responsible for more than seven assists per game. So now, who facilitates the offense?

Again, put a pin in Vescovi. Your other options for primary ball-handler are Jordan Bowden and Josiah James. Many of us assumed coming into the year that James would get backup point guard minutes, but in big games Lamonte just basically played the whole time. That’s one question with Josiah: is he the point guard next year? If that’s the idea, he’s about to get a lot of practice. The alternative is Bowden, who went from being the third scoring option on the floor to the first. His three-point percentage is still solid (37.3%), but his effective field goal percentage is down from last year because his looks have been much more difficult. What changes with his game if you put the ball in his hands much more often? Can one or both of these guys still run Tennessee’s offense in a way that creates non-difficult opportunities for Fulkerson and Pons?

Even before Lamonte got hurt, the Memphis and Cincinnati games showed, in good and bad ways, how much this team needs its defense. Lamonte was Tennessee’s best perimeter defender in terms of forcing turnovers both this year and last year. This is probably the biggest question for Davonte Gaines, Jalen Johnson, and anyone else getting ready to play more minutes: where are you on this end of the floor?

More on Wisconsin after Christmas, but the Badgers do play at Tennessee’s pace and rely on 6’11” center Nate Reuvers for a lot of what they do. We’ll learn more about what the Vols can do without Turner against strong guard play when LSU comes to town the following Saturday.

Turner’s absence is heartbreaking, but he leaves with incredible memories behind and hopefully a professional basketball future ahead. Tennessee as a team has the same memories in the past and a bright hope for the future. In the now, this team will try to make the tournament while answering big questions for the future. It’s an interesting moment for Josiah James, and a big opportunity for Davonte Gaines, Jalen Johnson, and everyone else with a chance to make a name for themselves a little earlier than they thought.

Kaizen: Continuous Improvement

Nothing is ever perfect, and despite a helluva day for Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols on Wednesday there are certain things that you know a coach as maniacally focused on recruiting as he is will look to improve.  Along with perhaps upgrading the staff from a recruiting perspective, from this vantage point one thing Tennessee should look at is the amount of official visits used in the spring and summer.  With the advent of the Early Signing Period in the class of 2018, using official visits earlier and earlier in the cycle has become more commonplace.  And that makes sense – schools are looking to lock down their top targets early, some kids want to finish the recruiting process early, and in particular spring games and thematic weekends (cookouts, paint ball, pool parties, etc) during the summer are showcase weekends to host official visitors.  That said, when looking at who Tennessee has brought in for official visits during the spring and summer for the classes of 2019 and 2020 (Pruitt’s two opportunities) those OV weekends have been, objectively speaking, failures.  Take a look below:

Class of 2019

April 18th (Orange and White Game)

Wanya Morris (signed with Tennessee)

Khris Bogle (signed with Florida)

Bryce Beinhart (signed with Nebraska)

Jalen Curry (signed with Arizona)

April 27th

Anthony Bradford (signed with LSU)

June 1st

Warren Burrell (signed with Tennessee)

June 8th

Trezeman Marshall (signed with UGA)

Mike Morris (signed with Michigan)

So, for the class of 2019, Tennessee brought eight prospects in for OVs during the spring and summer and signed two of them, a 25% hit rate.  Not only that, but the Vols were deep in the recruitments for both Bogle and Marshall until the bitter end, but both took very late OVs to the schools they respectively signed with whereas Tennessee had used its OV over a half year before they each signed.

Class of 2020

April 12th (Orange & White Game)

Dominic Bailey (signed with Tennessee)

Deontae Craig (signed with Iowa)

EJ Williams (signed with Clemson)

Kitan Crawford (signed with Texas)

Justin Rogers (signed with Kentucky)

Cooper Mays (signed with Tennessee)

June 7th

Mordecai McDaniel (Committed to UT in August but flipped to UF)

Haynes King (signed with Texas A&M)

June 14th (Pool Party)

James Robinson (signed with Tennessee)

Xavier Hill (signed with LSU)

Darrion Henry (signed with OSU)

Ty Jordan (signed with Utah)

Kourt Williams (signed with OSU)

June 21st

Blayne Toll (signed with Arkansas)

Rakim Jarrett (signed with Maryland after flipping from LSU)

Caziah Holmes (signed with PSU)

Chris Morris (signed with Texas A&M)

Richie Leonard (signed with UF)

After batting 25% (2/8) in 2019 on spring/summer official visits, Tennessee did even worse in 2020 signing three of the eighteen official visitors for a 17% hit rate.  And one of those commitments (Bailey) was already committed when he took his OV to Tennessee, and another (Mays) was a very heavy lean when he took his OV.  That’s…not good.  Now, in both years Tennessee chose not to heavily pursue some of these prospects and two other caveats to this exercise are 1) sometimes a prospect says I want to take my OV now and you have no choices so you take your shot and hope for the best (e.g., EJ Williams), and 2) some of the above were likely always going to the schools they ended up with  (e.g., Darrion Henry).  But even considering all of that, this strategy objectively has not worked for Pruitt and Tennessee.

Therefore, this should be addressed starting with the class of 2021 cycle.  The Orange and White Game weekend is a fantastic weekend to have prospects see Knoxville, Tennessee’s campus, and Vol Nation in all its glory.  And themed weekends during the summer are also great ways to show players the program and the campus while also showing them a different side of Tennessee’s coaching staff.  All great stuff, and all opportunities to build out a bigtime class.  But doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, and when that thing is proven to not work it also is counterproductive.  What’s been proven to work for Tennessee is inseason OVs, where the Vol Walk and the Vol Navy and 102,45mf’in5 show kids what Tennessee football is all about.  And barring that, Tennessee has done well with OVs between the end of the season and the start of the ESP, when once again everything that is great about Tennessee’s program can be showcased.  So along with potentially a better recruiting staff (TBD), another year for Pruitt and his core staff to have built relationships and gotten 2021 kids on campus, and an upward trend for the program not seen since the end of the 2015 season (which proved to be a bit of a mirage), perhaps a change in official visit strategy will also help to sign what should be Pruitt’s best class in his tenure as the Head Coach at Tennessee.

The Decade: Our Favorites

On December 31, 2009, I was headed back from Atlanta after a loss to Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. We couldn’t find a countdown on the radio in English, so my friend and I welcomed in the new decade in Spanish. The Hokies pulled away late to win 37-14, but there was plenty of optimism for Lane Kiffin in year two. Earlier in the day Bruce Pearl’s Vols won at Memphis. Things had been difficult in moving on from Fulmer, but we were hopeful order would be restored soon.

January 1, 2010 began with four basketball Vols getting arrested. Nine days later the Vols beat #1 Kansas without those players. Two days later, Kiffin left in the middle of the night. And the 2010’s were off and running.

It hasn’t been what any of us wanted ten years ago. The Gator Bowl, assigned to the 2019 season, will decide if the Vols finish above or below .500 for the decade. The basketball Vols made it back to number one and won another conference crown, but we’re still waiting for a second trip to the Elite Eight and our first to the Final Four. And everything changed for the Lady Vols, who won national titles in 2007 and 2008 but haven’t seen the Final Four since.

The craziness of those first dozen days set the tone for much of what would follow. But even in these turbulent years, there have been moments to celebrate. Here, in chronological order, are our favorite things from the last ten years:

The Elite Eight

I’ve been writing on the Vols for 14 years, and the 2009-10 basketball season is still my favorite story. The win over Kansas wasn’t just without four players, but saw just 14 minutes from J.P. Prince and 19 from Wayne Chism due to foul trouble. And the Vols won anyway, thanks to 9-of-18 from the arc including 4-of-6 from Renaldo Woolridge.

We’re all used to John Calipari at Kentucky and one-and-dones today, but in 2010 – Calipari’s first season in Lexington – that John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins group of UK players were rock stars. They came to Knoxville 27-1, and left 27-2.

And then to break through against two-seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16 after the crushing loss to the Buckeyes three years earlier, behind 22 points and 11 rebounds from Wayne Chism. The Vols let Evan Turner have his (31 points), but absolutely locked down the rest of Ohio State’s options. The 2010 Vols finished 28-9, were a six seed in the tournament, and five Tennessee teams since 2006 have finished with a higher rating in KenPom. But no one danced longer.

Tyler Bray vs Cincinnati

34-of-41 for 405 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions. Justin Hunter: 10 catches for 156. Da’Rick Rogers: 10 for 100. It all came crashing down to injury the next few weeks, but in this moment – a 45-23 win over Butch Jones and a Cincinnati team that finished the year ranked – other than the first half of the 2016 season, I’m not sure I ever walked out of Neyland Stadium more confident that we were “back” at any point this decade.

Cordarrelle Patterson

You forget how spectacular he was because we went 5-7 and spent most of the year talking about Derek Dooley, but remember this (and maybe mute your sound):

Two Weeks in February 2013

The Vols were 13-10 (5-6) coming to the end of Cuonzo Martin’s second season. And then, in four consecutive games:

  • Beat Kentucky by thirty (30) points
  • Beat LSU behind 34 points from Jordan McRae
  • Beat Texas A&M in four overtimes
  • Beat #8 Florida

I’m sure Cuonzo and many of us would call the run to the Sweet 16 from Dayton the peak of his tenure in Knoxville. But because so many people had jumped ship by that point, these end of these two weeks was the time you felt most confident in him. The Vols lost at Georgia, won two more to close out the regular season, lost in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and were again broken by the bubble. It’s hard to make lasting memories if your season doesn’t end in the NCAA Tournament, but these four games were a joy individually and felt like they could have been even more collectively.

Josh Dobbs Arrives at South Carolina

If you want the most rewatchable game of the decade – one not tied to any “yeah, but…” conversations like 2016 – it’s Tennessee at South Carolina in 2014.

Dobbs in this game: 23-of-40 for 301 yards passing, plus 24 carries for 166 yards rushing, five total touchdowns. Whatever you think of whatever happened with Butch Jones, the things we first wanted to believe about Dobbs on this night generally came true. An incredible individual game, enabling the Vols to once again get the last word on Steve Spurrier, and an initial step to one of the best Tennessee careers of the decade.

Josh Richardson

When the decade began, C.J. Watson was Tennessee’s lone NBA representative. Tobias Harris would join him in 2011 after a one-and-done campaign. From Cuonzo’s teams, no one would’ve picked Richardson to have the best NBA career. But I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee player get better from one year to the next in a four-year career like this:

YearPPGMinutes3PT%FT%
20122.91623.764
20137.930.721.469.2
201410.330.43479.3
20151636.335.979.8

The Outback Bowl & 2016 Off-Season

Beating Northwestern 45-6 doesn’t doesn’t ring any bells around here despite the kind of decade we’ve had, though it’s still Tennessee’s most dominant win over a ranked team since 1990. And the Outback Bowl is still Tennessee’s most prestigious destination since playing in the Cotton following the 2004 season.

But what that win enabled for the next eight months sure was fun.

And despite what happened in the second half of 2016, that preseason hype was earned by the near misses of 2015. The Vols were preseason #7 using a magazine consensus. It’s been a long time, before and after, since we’ve been able to anticipate that kind of year.

One Half of That Kind of Year

All of them come with a tinge of disappointment for the way 2016 ended, but all three are still incredibly unique:

  • The Battle at Bristol, the all-time attendance record for college football
  • The only win over Florida since 2004 and the second-largest comeback in Neyland Stadium history
  • The Hail Mary, which to my knowledge still doubles as Tennessee’s only walk-off win on an offensive touchdown in regulation in school history

As we wrote a couple of times in the midst of this stretch, getting down 14-0 in the largest attended football game in human history was only the fourth-most-stressful thing to happen to Tennessee in the first five games.

You can argue Jauan Jennings’ catch is both the apex of that season and the decade in football, the Vols using up the last of their magic. But it joins, “Did you turn off The Miracle at South Bend?” and “Did you try to leave the stadium before Stoerner fumbled?” as one of the best “Where were you when it happened?” moments in my Tennessee lifetime.

Fulmer’s Return

Bad seasons come and go, but the most vulnerable Tennessee’s athletic department has been in my lifetime was in the aftermath of Schiano Sunday after John Currie was fired. It only lasted a few hours, but to have no idea who’s in charge or who would be in charge after a week of insanity at the end of a decade of the same…it was a nervous moment.

The answer was Fulmer, who to this day gives me comfort on a simple, human level: I know the guy in charge of the thing I love loves it even more than I do.

For whatever experience I’ve gained in my 38 years or things I’ve learned in writing about the Vols for 14 years, that simple truth stays around. You don’t have to have that dynamic to be successful. But there’s an undeniable confidence when you do have it. And at the end of the craziest week at the end of the worst football season in program history, I’m still glad Phillip Fulmer was holding the keys.

Basketball Back on the National Level

In the midst of all the football insanity, I think the most divisive Tennessee conversation of this decade was still Cuonzo Martin by a healthy margin. Even in defending him the way I and others did, there was a stubborn belief that Bruce Pearl – even if we believed he was never coming back here – represented Tennessee’s highest ceiling.

Tennessee lucked into Rick Barnes. But in a decade when both chemistry and timing worked so hard and so often against us, the Vols got that one absolutely right.

The November 2017 win over Purdue was quickly forgotten in the midst of Schiano Sunday, but it started everything we’re enjoying now: 26-9 with an SEC title in 2018, 31-6 with a month at number one and a Sweet 16 in 2019, and the number four recruiting class in the nation for next season. Along the way (and thanks to UCLA), Tennessee and Phillip Fulmer upped Barnes’ salary to put the Vols in elite program territory in men’s basketball.

Barnes is 6-4 against Kentucky, and sent three Vols to the NBA Draft last season. Grant Williams is probably Tennessee’s athlete of the decade. Along the way there have been memorable individual plays…

…and far more wins the whole team shares. From Purdue to the first win at Rupp since 2006 in 2018, then taking down #1 Gonzaga – the best team Tennessee has beaten in the KenPom era – embarrassing Kentucky in Knoxville, and getting another 2-1 season advantage on the Cats in the SEC Tournament last year. If what Pearl’s teams did was the best positive story of Tennessee’s last decade, what Barnes and his teams are doing now is the best positive story of this one.

You Just Never Know

All the years, all the games, and sometimes you still get a loss to Georgia State in the opener and the first time the Vols covered the spread six weeks in a row since 1990 in the same season.

Football ends the decade no closer to the mountaintop than when it began: a 7-5 regular season heading to a bowl game, with positive momentum in recruiting and optimism for the future. We still don’t know.

But this year taught us we also never know, not really. And that’s one of the great things about sports. This decade saw a six seed make it one possession from the Final Four, our most talented football teams in 2012 and 2015-16 underachieve, a group of three-stars spend a month ranked number one, and a little bit of everything from this football season.

More than anything, this decade reinforces an old truth: we come back, year after year, not for the winning – though that’s preferable! – but for the experience itself.

So here’s to another ten years of great stories, great characters, and great memories. We’re never boring. And we’re always here.

Thanks, as always, for reading.

Go Vols.

Gotta Say it was a Good Day: Initial Post ESD Thoughts

We’ll have more on the various position groups in Tennessee’s 2020 class in the coming days, but below are some high level thoughts:

Early Signing Day has de factor become THE signing day, and Coach Jeremy Pruitt and staff made sure they locked up all of their commitments (sans OL Kyree Miller, who they apparently encouraged to wait…hint hint) and also signed all five of their top uncommitted targets coming into the day.  It was a no-doubt banner day for the Vols and even if they sign no more prospects the 2020 roster is now deeper and more talented across the board than it was in 2019.

At the same time, while one could argue whether or not the Vols closed any of the gap between itself and the Alabama/Georgia/LSU triumvirate at the top of the league – and the best argument in the affirmative is that those programs simply can’t get that much more talented while Tennessee has a lot of room to grow – what’s very clear is that Tennessee widened the gap between itself and the group of schools in the SEC East that it jumped in 2019.  In particular, Missouri and Vanderbilt signed classes that simply aren’t going to cut it in the SEC.  And while UK and South Carolina have respectable classes and some really strong position groups (e.g., UK did well on both lines) those classes would have Vol fans burning mattresses if they were in Orange and White.  Arkansas, Tennessee’s rotational SEC West opponent in 2020, did nothing to make one think that on top of their already bad roster and coaching-change-driven attrition that they will be anywhere close to the Vols talent wise. 

Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis and only rightful partner at the top of the SEC East with Georgia, also had a strong class.  Using Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man class  finished 7th in the country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58, while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero 5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52.  So, yeah, pretty much equal to each other in objective metrics.  Pruitt will have to outcoach and outdevelop Head Gator Dan Mullen in order to overtake the Gators.

While we wait to hear whether or not TE Darnell Washington signed at all and if so whether it was with Tennessee or Georgia, either way there are only a handful of real difference makers left in the 2020 class that Tennessee could realistically sign in February.  At the very top of the short list of difference makers is of course is Auburn DL commitment Jay Hardy.  Everyone knows the story – the fact that he didn’t sign with Auburn, whether his plan was always to sign in February or not, is a great indicator that the Vols have a massive opportunity to flip him and add to an already strong DL haul.  Other than him, it seems like Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith is the other main target until someone else pops up, and with Florida having already used its official visit with him in December and his brother Camryn having accepted a PWO offer from Tennessee, the Vols are likely in the driver’s seat should they choose to be.  Beckwith’s issue (or, more accurately, this writer’s issue with Beckwith) is that he clearly loves basketball more than he loves football.  It just so happens that while he’s a very good basketball player capable of realistically playing lower-level ball in college, he’s clearly viewed as a bigtime football prospect as evidenced by offers from the likes of the Vols and the Gators.  So that will have to work itself out one way or the other.  Tennessee signed an outstanding group of playmakers in WRs Jalin Hyatt and Jimmy Calloway to go with QB/ATH Jimmy Holiday, but Beckwith’s film is intriguing in that you can squint and see the kind of massive WR that doesn’t exist very often in college football.  Like Holiday, he’s be an unusual chess piece for OC Jim Chaney to play with in his search to make Tennessee’s offense more dynamic and explosive.

If one agrees that other than those handful above there just aren’t really any unsigned prospects that are going to move the needle for the Vols, then the question becomes what is the best use of the available scholarships.  Rolling them over to a 2021 class that should be Pruitt’s best since he began his tenure in Knoxville given the upward trajectory of the program, the recruiting staff he currently has (even before any potential upgrades in that area) as well as an unusually strong crop of instate talent, is a viable option.  The other is making prudent use of the Transfer Portal.  “Prudent” is the operative word here, and in this case it translates to “former elite prospects who are leaving elite programs.”  For example, Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs.  That’s the kind of talent, whether it is immediately available or you have to wait a year, that’s worth using a scholarship on.  A contra example would be (and we mean no disrespect) Madre London.  Tennessee might not yet have a roster capable of winning the SEC, but it also no longer has positions of simply glaring need where a random Grad Transfer could just step in and immediately start.  This isn’t Georgia Tech with Ryan Johnson or Central Florida and UCF.  Now, currently there aren’t many of those.  Right now, there is recent UGA portaler DE Robert Beal or Alabama transfer DB Scooby Carter and that’s about it.  After the bowl games there are likely to be more that shake out though, and that’s the kind of talent Tennessee should be focused on adding with its remaining openings. 

Cincinnati 78 Tennessee 66 – Recalibration?

What are we most concerned about?

Lamonte Turner’s shoulder is an issue that may not go away. I hate that for him most of all; via KenPom, Turner shot 45.2% in conference play from the arc in 2018, second-best in the SEC. Then he shot 61% from inside the arc in league play last year, seventh-best. In both cases he got better as the year went along, so maybe there’s some hope there. But this year he’s shooting 23.4% from the arc (11-of-47) and 32.9% inside it. He’s still 11th nationally in assist rate, but when he’s removed as a scoring option those assists get much harder to come by as defenses adjust elsewhere.

Three point shooting again wasn’t great – 3-of-15 – but at least this time the Vols didn’t settle for 26+. After starting the season hot as a team, now only Jordan Bowden (36.7% and working hard for a clean look) and Yves Pons (32.3%) are above 30% from the arc; the Vols are at 29.7% as a team, 280th nationally. Tennessee has played a handful of really good defenses, but Cincinnati was not among them.

Tennessee’s own defense, great all year, failed them last night. The Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor with an effective field goal percentage of 60.9%. Only Purdue, with their flame-throwing 15 threes, hit better than 60% eFG% against the Vols last season, when defense didn’t have to be such a priority. This team now has little choice to prioritize anything else.

One thing that might encompass all of this: everyone playing a new role. Lamonte, shoulder at whatever percentage, is carrying an incredible load at point guard. Bowden, the beneficiary of being the third-through-fifth option last season depending on who else was on the floor, is now asked to be the primary. When Tennessee’s offense has worked well – Washington and VCU – the formula has included some combination of Bowden hitting shots, Turner getting to the free throw line, and consistent inside scoring from Pons (Washington) or Fulkerson (VCU). We were hopeful this model could win games while Josiah James came along and the freshmen off the bench sorted themselves out.

But when that formula gets disrupted, defense is the only option. It genuinely gave Tennessee a chance to beat Memphis anyway. When defense goes away, there’s little the Vols can do until a new formula arrives or a freshman emerges. Last night Cincinnati’s two best players had four fouls early in the second half. It made little difference.

The preseason thought was a split of the six big non-conference games before Kansas would earn a “that’s about right” head nod. When the Vols handled Washington, lost to Florida State for obvious turnover-related reasons, then beat VCU while Cincinnati and Wisconsin struggled, we could get appropriately greedy. That early split is still available if the Vols beat Wisconsin, but as always, we’re adjusting on the fly.

The Vols dropped to 29th in KenPom (55th offense, 19th defense), which projects them to finish 20-11 in the regular season. The Vols host Jacksonville State on Saturday, then Wisconsin the following Saturday, then SEC play begins with a visit from LSU (shout out to Steve Forbes) on Saturday, January 4. The Vols go to Kansas in late January for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

One point we’ll make when we get to league play: for the second year in a row, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded. The best non-Vol teams in the league – Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas – don’t appear on the schedule at all until February 8 (Cats in Knoxville), and Tennessee’s last five games are exclusively against that tier (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). So whatever we think we’re learning about this team in league play will come with a, “Well, we’ll see…”. Tennessee can change a lot of its bracket fate, good or bad, in those last three weeks. Until then, and as usual, everything is about getting better:

Tennessee at Cincinnati Preview: Make Shots (and more!)

“It only hurts because it’s Memphis.”

I’m stealing that line from old friend of the blog Chris Pendley, and it’s true. If the Vols shot 4-of-26 from three in just about any other game and still almost win, you shrug your shoulders and move on to the next one. If the Vols continue to take 26 threes per game or make only four of them, then you panic. It’s early, but right now the Vols sit 282nd in KenPom’s luck ratings.

Tennessee is 2-2 in marquee non-conference affairs. The two that remain before the calendar turns to 2020 were originally thought to be the biggest tests. But while the Vols are on pace for about what we thought they’d be – still projecting at 21 regular season wins in KenPom, a six seed in the Bracket Matrix, 21st in the AP poll and 25th in NET – Cincinnati and Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worst.

The Rick Barnes What-If Bowl

With Barnes in Knoxville, Mick Cronin left Cincinnati after 13 years and took the UCLA job.

(Quick sidenote: I still do a lot of reading from SB Nation blogs, especially when we’re playing teams outside the SEC. If you’ve followed us throughout the years at Rocky Top Talk, here, or enjoy the good work done by fans of other teams writing in a freelance capacity, you might be interested to learn more about what’s happening to those who write for California-based teams. Bruins Nation was one of the first SB Nation sites I interacted with after starting at Rocky Top Talk when Kiffin was hired, and always found good writing and analysis there whenever I was curious about something happening at UCLA. All the best to their team.)

Steve Alford’s last two years at Westwood saw a loss in Dayton and a 17-16 finish. Mick Cronin is 7-4 in the early stages there. Meanwhile, John Brannen is in his first year at Cincinnati after four years and two NCAA Tournament appearances at Northern Kentucky.

We almost ran into these guys in each of the last two seasons. Last year the Bearcats lost to Iowa in the first round before we beat the Hawkeyes in the second. And two years ago Cincinnati was the two seed in our region, falling to Nevada in round two the same day we lost to Loyola Chicago.

They brought back their top three scorers, but have stumbled out of the gates. Some of it is strength of schedule: losses on the road to usually-good Xavier and an unusually-good Ohio State team, currently number one in KenPom. Cincinnati also did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before: three straight overtime games, including a loss to Bowling Green and wins over Valparaiso and UNLV. Their last game was particularly costly: Colgate – who is feisty, as we’ll attest to – won at Cincinnati as a result of this endgame sequence:

The thought coming into the year was these six teams – Washington, Florida State, VCU/Purdue, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin – were all on Tennessee’s level, all somewhere between a 4-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the Bracket Matrix this week, it mostly holds up: the Vols at six, Washington at eight, Florida State at four, VCU down a bit at 10, Memphis at five. But Cincinnati appears in just one entry in the matrix, and Wisconsin – 5-5 and headed to Knoxville on December 28 – is in just three (of 27).

First-Year Problems (and Solutions?)

The Bearcats returned leading scorer Jarron Cumberland (18.8 per game last year), added his cousin Jaevin as a grad transfer from Oakland, and brought back guard Keith Williams and 6’8″ forward Tre Scott, all upperclassmen. But this team has problems that look like what a first-year coach might expect: after leading the nation in fewest steals allowed in 2019, Cincinnati is 281st in turnover percentage this season and 323rd in non-steal turnovers.

There’s also the emergence of 7’1″ Chris Vogt who transferred in with Brannen from Northern Kentucky. After playing less than 20 minutes in the first two games, he’s emerged as a primary option: double figure scoring in every game after the opener at Ohio State, 16 points in 26 minutes against Colgate, 24th nationally in effective field goal percentage. Foul trouble can be an issue with him, but we’ll yet again get to see the Vols at a size disadvantage.

Like the Memphis game, there’s a part of me that wants to type, “This should be a game Tennessee’s veterans win.” Tennessee’s defense – now 11th nationally in KenPom and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed – can take advantage of a turnover-prone team still learning a new system. Having played Ohio State, the Bearcats won’t be intimidated by the #21 Vols. But Tennessee’s best basketball this season won’t be about intimidation. If the mantra after Florida State was straightforward, not spectacular, I think it’s still true after Memphis…I’d just add, “And don’t miss 22 threes.”

We’ll see what we learned at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ESPN2, or if any learning was necessary if the Vols can knock down open threes.

Tennessee-Cincinnati four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.

The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Defend without fouling.
  2. Shoot better than they did Saturday.
  3. Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.

My prediction: Tennessee 68, Cincinnati 64

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like VCU, and quite a bit better shooting the ball than Tennessee.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like prior opponent Florida A&M in this category, the Bearcats are happy to turn the ball over. Well, maybe not happy, but they’ll do it. Tennessee’s better.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Cincinnati is not bad at rebounding the ball (most like former opponent UNC Asheville), but Tennessee’s better.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Yikes. The Bearcats are better at getting to the free throw line than any team we’ve played to date, including Memphis, which was also in the Top 15. The Vols are not bad at this, but man, these guys have a Fast Pass to the stripe.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 47.9 (No. 222) (down from 50.6 (No. 131)), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.8 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 41.5 (No. 12) Saturday when the Vols put up a stench of a shooting percentage.

When Cincinnati has the ball

The Bearcats’ eFG% is 50.3 (No. 142), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 40.8 (No. 5).

Conclusions

The Bearcats are no slouches at defending, but they’re not up to the level of Memphis, so Tennessee should do better tonight than they did Saturday shooting the ball. And their shooting percentage defense is still elite.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.6 (No. 181), up from 20.3 (No. 218) last week. The Bearcats’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.9 (No. 210). Memphis’ was 23.3 (No. 41) heading into last Saturday’s game.

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati’s turnover % is 21.6 (No. 281) (Memphis’ was 19.7 (No. 187)), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.8 (No. 111), up from 20.2 (No. 142).

Conclusions

Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover department this evening.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.2 (No. 88), which is down from 32.3 (No. 70) Saturday. Cincinnati’s defense in that category is 26.4 (No. 100). That makes them better than Memphis, which was 31.1 (No. 271) prior to Saturday’s game.

When Cincinnati has the ball

The Bearcats’ OR% is 30.2 (No. 116) (Memphis’ was 34.8 (No. 31)), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.7 (No. 41).

Conclusions

This looks pretty even to me on Tennessee’s side of the court, and the Vols appear to have a slight advantage on the Bearcats’ side.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.8 (No. 57) (down from 40 (No. 42)), while Cincinnati’s defense against that is 26.5 (No. 78). For reference, Memphis was 35.3 (No. 248).

When Cincinnati has the ball

The Bearcats’ FT Rate is 45.7 (No. 5), compared to Memphis’, which was 44.9 (No. 6). Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.4 (No. 77), up from 26.8 (No. 84).

Conclusions

These guys are much better than Memphis at keeping you off the foul line, and they are elite at getting there themselves. The Vols are going to have to figure out how to defend without breathing on them or looking at them.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee shouldn’t shoot as poorly tonight as it did against Memphis Saturday, and the Vols defense is still plenty capable of frustrating the Bearcats into missing shots. I wouldn’t expect rebounding or turnovers to be deciding factors unless one of the teams has an out-of-character game.

The real danger for the Vols comes at getting to the foul line. They can get there some themselves, but how well they keep the Bearcats away from the charity stripe may be what decides this game.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Defend without fouling.
  2. Shoot better than they did Saturday.
  3. Don’t get out of character in rebounding or turnovers.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 52% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Cincinnati 64. The line is currently Tennessee -1.5.

My prediction: Tennessee 68, Cincinnati 64

Go Vols.

Memphis 51 Tennessee 47 – Wide Open But No Good

The biggest thing I thought Memphis could do to hurt Tennessee was get the Vols in foul trouble, which they absolutely did in the first half. Fortunately, Tennessee got big minutes from Drew Pember and a hot start from Josiah James. Memphis turned it over 11 times in the first 20 minutes, handing Tennessee a 17-5 lead. But the Vols couldn’t run away with it, and a late barrage gave Memphis a one-point halftime lead.

Foul trouble was a non-issue in the second half. In a low-scoring affair, the Vols got some nice buckets from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson; Fulkerson played one of the best games of his career on the defensive end. Both Pons and Fulkerson missed crucial free throws, but the Vols went 13-of-18 (72.2%) from the stripe on the day.

It didn’t look like it was a big part of the Memphis gameplan coming in, but as the day went along a common theme emerged for Tennessee: open looks from three that didn’t go down.

James hit three in the first half. He finished 3-of-6 with a big miss late. Jordan Bowden hit a really tough three in the second half. It was Tennessee’s only other make of the day. The Vols were shooting 33% from the arc coming in. They went 4-of-26 (15.4%). Non-James players went 1-of-20.

Memphis came in shooting 30% from the arc. They didn’t take many, as you’d expect. But they hit some big ones in the second half. Memphis had a four-point lead for 90 seconds with 12 minutes to play. The next time the game was at two possessions was Alex Lomax’s free throws with eight seconds left. In a game like that, threes are daggers. The Tigers took the lead on their final made three with 1:48 to play. The Vols had a deep miss from Lamonte Turner, the aforementioned miss from Josiah James, and Yves Pons missing the front end of a 1-and-1 on the offensive rebound.

This was Tennessee’s worst three-point shooting day since the season opener against Chattanooga in 2016-17 (1-for-16) and two games against Frank Martin’s eventual Final Four squad the same year.

You can take all the emotion from this rivalry – all the ways you want to win anyway, all the amplification from the Penny Hardaway stuff (who was gracious in victory), the nation’s longest home winning streak, all of that – but Tennessee simply cannot survive 4-of-26 from the arc. Most of them were good looks. Almost all of them didn’t go down.

At some point, maybe we’ll look at that and say it’s a good thing since the Vols almost won anyway. Today is not that day. There will be an ongoing conversation about Lamonte Turner’s shoulders (1-for-11 today), but I’m sure everything that can be done about that is already being done.

The result we got today makes sense given how we got there. But how we got there was unexpected, fairly unprecedented, and absolutely no fun.

The Vols will have to rebound quickly, heading to Cincinnati on Wednesday night. The rubber match with Memphis is next season in Nashville.

Tennessee vs Memphis Preview: Just Be Yourselves

Thompson-Boling Arena’s official capacity is 21,678. The last two years, the Vols listed an official attendance above capacity five times:

SeasonOpponentAttendance
2019Florida22,261
2018Georgia22,237
2019West Virginia22,149
2019Alabama21,957
2019Kentucky21,729

How often do the Vols play a ranked non-conference opponent at home? Since Bruce Pearl’s arrival in 2005-06:

SeasonOpponent
2018#7 North Carolina
2015#15 Butler
2013#23 Wichita State
2012#17 Pittsburgh
2012#13 UConn
2011#21 Memphis
2010#1 Kansas
2009#22 Memphis
2007#16 Memphis

Put all those ingredients plus everything about the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry in a bowl; it’ll do a good enough job of mixing itself up. Tomorrow is the first of what should become five Saturday sellouts for the Vols (Wisconsin, LSU, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn). But it might end up being the loudest one of all.

Give me all the freshmen you have.

Even with James Wiseman still ineligible and Lester Quinones out with a broken hand, the number of freshmen Memphis will put on the floor is unusual. Start with 6’9″ Precious Achiuwa, who has seen his minutes and production increase to become the team’s number one option. He had 25 in their 87-86 win over Ole Miss on November 23, and he will get to the free throw line: 10 attempts vs the Rebels, 20 against Alcorn State. He’s only shooting 53.3% once he gets there, but for a Tennessee team playing a short bench, his ability to get to the line is of significance. As a team, Memphis is sixth nationally in free throw rate.

This team wants to run: Memphis is 10th nationally in tempo (stats via KenPom), and guards Damion Baugh (freshman) and Alex Lomax (sophomore) both hover around the Top 100 in assist rate.

And, much like the Washington, Florida State, and VCU teams the Vols saw already, Memphis relies on a lot of shot-blocking. The Tigers are statistically the best at it of that group, currently third nationally. But the other three are all in the Top 15. With Memphis, without Wiseman it’s less pure size and more about athleticism: Achiuwa and 6’7″ freshman D.J. Jeffries are both in the Top 150 in shot blocking percentage.

The good news here: despite having played three excellent shot-blocking teams thus far, the Vols are still 63rd nationally in fewest shots blocked by percentage. Some of it is the fearlessness of a guy like Yves Pons, sure. But credit John Fulkerson for being such a high-percentage player against great shot-blocking teams: Fulky is 56th nationally from inside the arc (69.2%), which also makes him 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage at that number since he doesn’t take any threes. The Vols have done a good job both getting him high-percentage looks, and encouraging him to shoot more.

The most straightforward way to talk about Tennessee is to look at Lamonte Turner – eight turnovers in our only loss – and put a lot of where we go on how he’s playing. But how he’s playing, outside of that game, is truly excellent as a point guard: fifth nationally in assist rate, including a pair of 12+ assist games against not-bad teams from Murray State and Chattanooga. There’s nothing about this or, apparently, any moment that’s going to scare him. But Tennessee needs him to choose the straightforward over the spectacular, which is where he got in trouble against the Seminoles. If he does that, the Vols have already gotten the best of a lot of what Memphis likes to do when it was wearing other uniforms.

Maybe the best news of all for Tennessee: last year’s team was led by its offense because you could generally rely on what you were going to get from Williams, Schofield, and Bone. But this year’s team has switched to being led by its defense, which is a more reliable option night in and night out. It traveled to Toronto and Destin. It helped Tennessee survive an early barrage of threes from Murray State. And – if it can stay out of foul trouble, as it usually does – it should handle all the emotion in the building on Saturday.

We’re too early in the year to think big picture, but the ultimate magic numbers in KenPom are always having both a Top 20 offense and defense. The 2018 Vols had the defense. The 2019 Vols had the nation’s third-best offense, but I would say lost a tiny bit of urgency defensively. So far this year, the Vols are 32nd in offense but 14th in defense. It’s the best model to survive and advance for this year’s squad, especially as Olivier Nkamhoua and Josiah Jones James mature.

What could be an all-timer Thompson-Boling crowd will do everything it can to take Memphis, its freshmen, and its coach out of their element. If Tennessee plays within theirs, the Vols should win.

3:00 PM Saturday with Dickie V on the mothership, baby.

Prepare yourselves.

Go Vols.

Predicting the Tennessee-Indiana game using SPM comps

The TaxSlayer Bowl pitting the Tennessee Volunteers against the Indiana Hoosiers opened with Indiana as a slight 1.5-point favorite. It has since flipped so that now the Vols are a 1.5-point favorite. Regardless, Vegas is expecting a close game. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say about this year’s Gator Bowl and whether I think it’s right or wrong.

Vols-Hoosiers

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3
  • Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5

The Indiana scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • BYU 24.4
  • South Carolina 26.1

Early in the season, Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU, but got 41 against the Gamecocks as the Vols began to find their stride. Taken together, that 133% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 32.6 points for the Vols against Indiana.

Indiana’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7
  • Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6

The Indiana scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Georgia State 32.4
  • Florida 33

Florida scored 34 points against the Vols, and Georgia State scored 38. That’s slightly more than what those teams scored over the course of the season, and the SPM translates that into 35.9 points for Indiana against Tennessee.

Estimated score: Tennessee 32.6, Indiana 35.9

From the perspective of Indiana

Indiana’s points:

  • Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Michigan State 22.7
  • Northwestern 23.6

Indiana scored 31 points against Michigan State and 34 against Northwestern, 141% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Indiana against the Vols 30.6.

Tennessee’s points:

  • Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s):

  • Maryland 25.3
  • Purdue 25.8

Maryland got 28 against Indiana, and Purdue got 41, meaning Indiana’s defense allowed the two closest comps 135% of what they usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Indiana: 32.8.

Estimated score: Indiana 30.6, Tennessee 32.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2

SPM Final estimated spread: Indiana -.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1

Those numbers are the SPM’s way of warning you not to put too much confidence in the outcome of this game one way or the other.

Eyeball adjustments

Here’s the thing. I think the estimates of Tennessee’s points are too low and the estimates of Indiana’s points are too high. From the Vols’ perspective, the comps include a BYU game that was really early in a long season of continued improvement. Just using South Carolina as the comp would make the estimated points for the Vols from this perspective 38.

And I feel like Indiana’s estimated points are too high because the comps are Georgia State and Florida, two games very early in the season before the defense began to improve. Against teams not named Alabama, the Tennessee defense allowed an average of only 13.5 points against teams that together averaged 23.6 points. If you use that data, the estimated points for Indiana from the Vols’ perspective would be only 19.

All of that would make the Vols’ perspective spit out Tennessee 38, Indiana 19. I don’t think the machine is quite as wrong as that, but the difference is enough to make me think this isn’t the pick ’em everybody and everything thinks it is.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 35, Indiana 28. The SPM is imitating Vegas’ shrug on this one, but I like the Vols by a touchdown.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, Indiana opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and it has since shifted to the Vols being a 1.5-point favorite. With an over/under of around 49, that translates to something like Tennessee 25, Indiana 24.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 52.3% chance of winning.

I haven’t seen SP+ bowl picks yet, but when I see them I’ll add the Tennessee-Indiana prediction here.

Bottom line

The SPM gives only half a point to Indiana in this game, and it’s about as far from being confident against the spread as it can get. I think the eyes see something the machines can’t, and so I like the Vols by a touchdown.

  • Vegas (current): Tennessee, -1.5 (~Tennessee 25, Indiana 24)
  • SP+: (TBD)
  • SPM: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2 (Vols don’t cover)
  • Me: Tennessee 35, Indiana 28 (Vols cover)

What do y’all think?