What does this team’s best basketball look like?

The Vols fell to 10-6 (2-2) on Wednesday. Sure, Georgia shot well above their averages from three (10-of-23) and at the line (16-of-21), doing us no favors. But Tennessee’s offensive woes continued, even as the quality of defensive competition decreased. The Vols took 26 threes and made only six of them, while getting to the line only a dozen times. Jordan Bowden was better from inside the arc, but went 0-for-5 from three (as did Yves Pons). It was a forgettable performance in a 17-point loss that was worse than that for much of the night.

It’s not exclusively good news, but the league is a certified mess right now. Kentucky lost 81-78 at the same South Carolina team that struggled to score 55 in Knoxville. And top five Auburn, 15-0, went to Alabama and lost by 19 in just their third game against a Top 50 KenPom opponent this season.

Those same ratings project LSU – 4-0 and with a schedule that includes Kentucky and Auburn just once each – to win the league at 13-5, with five other teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8. KenPom projects more of the same for the Vols: a 9-9 SEC finish (plus a loss at Kansas) which would leave Tennessee at 17-14 on the year.

It’s still too early with too many moving pieces to throw in the towel on this season, but it’s also too early to assume the NIT would be a safe landing spot. As has been the case since Lamonte Turner went out, Tennessee simply needs wins. The younger players getting better is probably the biggest storyline for the program, but if the Vols can piece together more wins like Missouri and South Carolina, they can at least stay in the postseason conversation.

To do that, it’s abundantly clear they have to rely on their defense, still 37th nationally in KenPom and eighth nationally in defending inside the arc, thanks in part to being 17th nationally in shot blocking. That has to become the constant, with Vescovi and Plavsic getting better and not worse as things go along. On the offensive side, there are enough individual points of hope to make Barnes’ frustrations justified, like this:

Fulkerson is 69-of-104 (66.3%) on the year, making him 45th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 15th in effective field goal percentage. If you thought Kyle Alexander was a high percentage bucket in there, he shot 61.7% from two last year. What Fulkerson is doing is closer to Alexander’s 2018 season, when he went 76-of-112 (67.9%). The difference, of course, is the last two Vol teams had a number of other offensive options. On the current Tennessee roster, going inside to Fulkerson is one of the best plays the Vols can make. Some defenses do a great job denying the ball in there, some can create a mismatch with size in the post. But even as Tennessee is trying to work in Plavsic in the post, we can’t have a game where Fulkerson takes only two shots (Georgia) or three (Wisconsin). Do watch the seven footer as he gets a feel here: Plavsic took six shots in 17 minutes compared to Fulkerson’s two in 22.

Tennessee is fourth nationally in assist rate, sharing the ball on 65.4% of their made baskets. Sometimes that comes via style of play: VMI is second in the nation in this department with nearly half their shots coming from the arc. But while a number of elite offenses get there this way – Michigan State, Iowa, Dayton, Tennessee last year – it’s clearly not a sign of an elite offense by itself. Maine is seventh nationally in assist rate, but 335th in KenPom offense and 5-13 overall.

What it tells us about Tennessee: the Vols can’t get buckets without ball movement. There’s no one on this team who successfully creates their own shot. That should change next year, though it isn’t always tied to a Rick Barnes offense: the Vols were 188th in this stat his first year in the Kevin Punter show. In the early portion of this season, Lamonte Turner put up numbers that would still rank fourth nationally in assist rate. Vescovi is making progress in his assist-to-turnover ratio, but it’s a big ask for him to even approach what Lamonte was doing for this team early in the season. Still, the Vols can be good here – assisting on 18 of 24 made shots against LSU, 10 of 14 against South Carolina – with an emphasis on simply getting good shots. I’m fine with open threes that don’t go down. Clearly there are few bad shots for Fulkerson in the post. Too often Tennessee gets bogged down in the half-court and is forced to make a bad decision at the end of the shot clock. Get good shots, and trust your defense to take care of the difference.

What’s a good shot when the Vols don’t get quality touches in the post and have to settle for more threes? We need more data on Vescovi, who is now 11-of-22 on the year. Early returns from Yves Pons have cooled: he’s now at 30.2%. Jordan Bowden continues to struggle at 27.8%. By far the brightest spot right now: Josiah James at 20-of-51 (39.2%). He’s been shooting it more in Lamonte’s absence, 12-of-21 (57.1%) in the last five games. It’s clearly not enough to win by itself, but the Vols would be well suited to look and create for the freshman more.

You can’t assume anything in the SEC this year, but the closest thing might be Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 8-8 in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and just lost Aaron Nesmith with a stress fracture. It’s a bad blow for their program, who just lost a year of Darius Garland last season. Nesmith’s absence puts even more on Saben Lee, with a host of freshmen behind him.

The Commodores put a scare in Auburn on the road, but without Nesmith lost to Texas A&M in Nashville by 19 and at Arkansas by 20. Other than UNC Asheville and Alabama State, Vanderbilt is the worst defense Tennessee will see all season, by far. The Commodores are 249th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They foul a lot, which could help Tennessee get more of their offense heading in that direction. And they’re the worst team in the league overall at 161st in KenPom.

As we know, you assume nothing in Memorial Gym, where the freshly-minted #1 Vols almost went down last season. But it’s the best possible SEC opponent given what’s currently ailing Tennessee.

6:00 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Vanderbilt four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

This makes it look like Vanderbilt is shooting better than Tennessee and getting to the line more often, but that the Vols are rebounding better. Let’s take a closer look.

Summary and Score Prediction

Let’s hope some of this bad news is the result of hitting the reset button too many times, thus dropping a team in search of chemistry into a field full of opponents with a head start in finding their own. Still, the Vols need to improve almost everything, and shooting better and limiting turnovers are chief on the long list of important tasks. They’ll have opportunities against Vanderbilt, but they’ll also need to make sure they stay in character on defense as well to come out of Nashville with a win tomorrow.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Shoot better. Start with getting the ball to John Fulkerson in the post. Aim for a better percentage than Vanderbilt both from the field and from the arc. (I know — duh. But if they do that, they’ll be shooting better than usual and also holding Vanderbilt to something less than theirs.)
  2. Limit the turnovers. Ten or fewer would be good.
  3. Capitalize on the rebounding advantage.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 64% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, Vanderbilt 67. Sounds about right to me.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Commodores are a much better shooting team than the Vols. In fact, they’re the best-shooting team we’ve played this season and very similar to LSU in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Vanderbilt also protects the ball much better than Tennessee does (obvs). They are most similar to FSU among prior Vols opponents.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols have the advantage in offensive rebounding, and the Commodores are most similar to Florida A&M and Chattanooga in this category.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most similar to Memphis (and Murray State) and with a pretty significant advantage over the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is a dismal 47.9 (No. 232), but it will be going up against a similarly dismal defense that is 51.5 (No. 253).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ eFG% is 54 (No. 25), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 31).

Conclusions

When it comes to shooting percentages, it’s weakness-on-weakness and strength-on-strength, and about evenly-matched to boot.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a terrible turnover % of 20.9 (No. 267), while the Commodores’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 19.9 (No. 138).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s turnover % is 18.8 (No. 130), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.1 (No. 122).

Conclusions

As I said the last time around, the Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category (from an offensive perspective) until they earn some dramatic improvement. They’ll have an opportunity tomorrow. As far as forcing turnovers, the stage is set for a normal result.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 113). Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.9 (No. 205).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ OR% is 27.2 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 26.8 (No. 112).

Conclusions

The Vols appear to have a pretty good edge in rebounding. They’ll need it.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate remains 33.8 (No. 133), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 35 (No. 241).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ FT Rate is 40.4 (No. 23), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 27.5 (No. 85).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should be able to get there more often than usual tomorrow against the Commodores. On the other side, Vandy’s good at getting there, but Tennessee might be able to limit those opportunities a bit.

Go Vols.

Weekend of the Wide Receiver in Knoxville

This coming weekend, the first out of the dead period and before the February 2020 signing day, will feature a handful of 2020 official visitors as well as a slew of 2021 prospects.  Thematically, regardless of class what is clear is that this is the Weekend of the Wide Receiver in Knoxville. 

In the 2020 class, the Vols be bringing in WR/TE Dee Beckwith and FSU WR commitment Malachi Wideman.  Beckwith is an interesting prospect in that he’s likely a college TE, but in the pass-catching mold of Florida’s Kyle Pitts with inline blocking something he’ll need to grow into.  Florida is, perhaps not coincidentally, his stated leader and according to him is recruiting him harder than anyone.  The Vols will have their chance to make a final on-campus pitch this weekend and will seemingly need to decide whether they go all-in, as they clearly have ground to make up.  His half-brother Camryn Beckwith (a RB) is an incoming preferred walk-on for the Vols, which should help but apparently isn’t the end-all be-all.  Wideman is an athletic freak, who at 6’4 and 180 pounds also happens to be a high level basketball player known for his prolific and viral-video producing dunks.  Tee Martin and Chris Weinke have worked hard to get Wideman to campus, and because Wideman has already taken his OV to Tallahassee he’s more wide open than his “commitment” might suggest.  He does have an OV scheduled to Oregon for the weekend after, as well as one to FAU (where former FSU coach Willie Taggart landed), so the Vols are unlikely to lock him down this weekend.  However, they can put themselves firmly in the mix, if not at the top, with a strong visit.  Going out on a bit of a limb here, but should the Vols land Wideman he looks to be the best incoming Tennessee WR prospect since current NFL rookie Preston Williams.  That kind of athleticism, size, and catch radius is rare, and were Pruitt and Martin able to add him to the current WR signees Jalin Hyatt and Jimmy Calloway, that would not only restock the WR corps for both the near term and the future but would also represent arguably the best group of WR signees in multiple years.  If they do that could impact numbers at the position for 2021. Speaking of numbers, OL Dylan Spencer, a Southern Mississippi commitment, is also officially visiting this weekend; however, with the addition of Cade Mays to go with the three incoming freshmen signees it’s far from certain that Tennessee will have room for another OL in the class. That said, should things go the wrong way with the small group of targets left on the board at positions of greater need, Spencer would be an intriguing add. Playing his first year at OL after spending the rest of his high school career on the DL, Spencer earned first team all state honors in Mississippi as well as a spot on the AL/MS All-Star Game, where he earned acclaim for his play during the week of practice. He’s very potentially an OT, which makes him all the more valuable. He’s gotten very recent offers from Mississippi State and Missouri, and one would presume the Bulldogs in particular have a great shot. But he’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

Speaking of 2021, Tennessee will also have, as of this writing, seven(!) 2021 WR prospects on campus.  Among them are 4-star instate stud Walker Merrill; 4-star Florida native Romello Brinson; as well as South Carolina natives Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (who recently participated in the All-American Bowl Combine) and JJ Jones; Alabamians Malachi Bennett (in Knoxville for at least his fourth visit, most recently the UAB game) and Christian Lewis; and Chauncey Magwood from Georgia.  Along with instate WRs Adonai Mitchell, Quenton Barnes, and Scottie Alexander; 4-stars Kobe Paysour (for whom the Vols just made a Top 7), Gavin Blackwell (visited for the South Carolina game), Isaiah Brevard and James Blackstrain, this group makes up Tennessee’s early WR board for 2021.

Not to get lost in the WR shuffle, there will be other notable 2021s on campus, most importantly 5-star LB Dylan Brooks, 4-star QB Christian Veilleux, and bigtime DL Isaac Washington.  Brooks’ recruitment will be an all-out war between the Vols and instate powers Alabama and Auburn, but he attended three games in Knoxville this past season and has been on campus a handful of other times as well, so Tennessee is clearly in deep with this elite player.  Veilleux is making his 3rd visit since last summer, including the Mississippi State game, this time as part of a campus tour that will also take him to Duke and Clemson, which indicates what kind of prospect he is (PSU is also a big factor here).  Washington will also be making his third visit and appears to be very high on the Vols at the moment, good news considering how big a need DL is in 2021. Other scheduled visitors include recently offered DL Tyrion Ingram and LB Raneiria Dillworth.  Getting these kinds of prospects on campus is a great sign for the kind of momentum Tennessee has on the recruiting trail.  Continuing to get these players as well as other top targets on campus in January and February, before the cycle truly gets started, will be of paramount importance for Coach Pruitt and his staff.

Tennessee at Georgia Preview

Literal big news:

A strange season takes another turn: the Vols started the year with 11 games of Lamonte Turner, and will end it, if healthy, with at least 17 games of Uros Plavsic. Turner’s absence and Tennessee’s 1-4 stretch surrounding it made it difficult for the Washington and VCU wins with Turner to be worth as much on the bubble. But now, if the Vols can get hot while working in Plavsic the same way they’ve done Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee can build a separate argument for what they’ve done with these two additions.

That starts at Georgia tonight, where the Vols will face potential number one overall pick Anthony Edwards. Tennessee saw Shaquille O’Neal at LSU in the early 90’s – shout out to Carlus Groves – then didn’t play a number one pick for the next 15 years. That’s changed drastically since then, thanks in large part to John Calipari:

2016Ben SimmonsLSU
2015Karl-Anthony TownsKentucky
2012Anthony DavisKentucky
2010John WallKentucky
2008Derrick RoseMemphis
2007Greg OdenOhio State

The Vols beat Ben Simmons in the regular season but lost the rematch in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee also beat John Wall in Knoxville in 2010 and, of course, got the best of Derrick Rose and Memphis in 2008.

The 6’5″ Edwards made a name for himself by scoring 37 points against Michigan State, including 7-of-16 from the arc. He’s taken no more than nine threes in any other game, including the last two when cold spells helped the Dawgs get off to an 0-2 start in league play, thanks in large part to the schedule. Kentucky won in Athens 78-69, and Auburn held serve at home with a dominant 82-60 win. Edwards had 23 points on 17 shots against Kentucky, 18 on 17 against Auburn. He’ll put it up: via KenPom, Edwards is 18th nationally in shot percentage, taking more than a third of Georgia’s shots when he’s on the floor.

Edwards is only a 30.5% three-point shooter; when Kentucky and Auburn chased him off the line, he did go 9-of-14 inside the arc. He gets to the free throw line with 72 attempts on the year (4.8 per game), but only shoots 68.1% once there. Did someone mention a seven foot rim protector with five more fouls to give?

Edwards also shares the ball well, relatively speaking, but when it goes in for Georgia from another player it’s usually Rayshaun Hammonds. The 6’9″ junior plays the five, which means right away we get to talk about Uros giving Tennessee an advantage we haven’t seen all season. After the Vols found great success against Missouri playing Yves Pons at the five, I’ll be curious to see if they carve out some time for that lineup as well.

I don’t think last season’s 96-50 win in Knoxville is much of a talking point here. Georgia finished the season 11-21 (2-16), but is already way better in Tom Crean’s second season, and not solely on the strength of Edwards. They’re tested, having played Dayton and Michigan State well before opening league play with Kentucky and Auburn. And they went to Memphis and won 65-62 on January 4, and not because Edwards had a huge game (4-of-17 shooting). They held Memphis to 38.5% from the floor and took advantage of the Tigers shooting 11-of-20 at the stripe.

Memphis did pinpoint one of their biggest weaknesses: giving up offensive rebounds, where the Dawgs are 276th nationally and undersized like us on Monday. Memphis had 15 offensive rebounds against them; Auburn had 13 and Kentucky a dozen. Georgia also does themselves no favors at the free throw line or in turning the ball over.

Any team with the number one pick is dangerous; the Vols got a spark from Vescovi, and Plavsic has been practicing with the team all season, but we’re not sure exactly what we’re going to get here and that could lead to the kind of weirdness that costs us tonight. If Tennessee is truly going to build a resume on what they do from here, with Vescovi and Plavsic, it’s a nice on-ramp: at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs Ole Miss before we go to Kansas. If you want that argument, it needs to start with a win tonight.

Advertising enthusiasts, rejoice: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU.

Go Vols.

Vols at the Halfway Point: Stay Close

What Tennessee did against South Carolina was a perfect example of where this team is and what it will take going forward. The Vols shot 25.9% from the floor, which would’ve been the worst number in any of the last ten years if not for going 25% from the floor against Memphis. Yet Tennessee had a chance to win that game, and actually got it done this time: they held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, 2-of-13 (15.4%) from the arc, and the Vols knocked down 22-of-28 free throws.

Tennessee is 29th nationally in defensive efficiency (via KenPom), and has faced a schedule ranking 34th by opposing defenses. You know what you’re getting into against Kansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas going forward, but the rest of Tennessee’s schedule should lighten a bit in this department. For the most part, the Vols can still defend well enough to give themselves a chance.

But this offense is now 114th nationally in efficiency. That’s the lowest number at Tennessee since Kevin O’Neill’s last season in 1997, when the Vols went 11-16 (4-12) and finished 278th in offensive efficiency. The only other year the Vols finished outside the Top 100 was Cuonzo Martin’s first campaign in 2012, when UT finished 106th.

Right now every shot that goes in is a big deal. Tennessee’s 14 made field goals against South Carolina tied Florida State for a season low; the Vols made just 15 shots against Memphis and 16 against Wisconsin. Tennessee continues to get high-percentage scoring from John Fulkerson (21st nationally in effective field goal percentage), but continues to have a tough time getting him quality touches inside.

Meanwhile, the late revelation at Missouri came with Fulkerson off the floor. With six minutes to play and the Vols down three, a lineup with Yves Pons at the five surrounded by Vescovi, Bowden, James, and Jalen Johnson ripped off a 14-3 run over three-and-a-half minutes. Tennessee’s small ball lineup spaced the floor and created a number of great looks for three point shooters.

From the arc, Santiago Vescovi is red hot out the gate at 10-of-18 (55.6%). Josiah James is also doing a nice job at 37.8% on the year. With Jordan Bowden now dipping under 30%, I’m curious to see how the Vols adapt their shot selection. Again, some of this should get better just by virtue of who’s next on the schedue: at Georgia (83rd in defensive efficiency), at Vanderbilt (242nd), and vs Ole Miss (119th) before going to Kansas next Saturday.

Overall, this team currently sits about where you’d expect when compared to their predecessors:

YearKenPomRecordFinish
201926.2431-6Sweet 16
201423.6924-13Sweet 16
201822.2726-9Round 2
200822.1731-5Sweet 16
200619.4422-8Round 2
201018.5028-9Elite 8
200718.2924-11Sweet 16
200916.4821-13Round 1
202013.3110-5
200212.6715-16
201712.6216-16
201112.4119-15Round 1
201211.3819-15NIT
200310.9917-12NIT
201310.4720-13NIT
20058.8914-17
20167.3115-19
20047.3015-14NIT
20157.2416-16

In KenPom, this team is behind all of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams post-Jerry Green except for Bruce Pearl’s final season. Their closest comparison is Buzz Peterson’s first team, which lost seven one-possession or overtime games between December 15 and January 16, then lost Ron Slay to a torn ACL at the end of that stretch. Slay’s absence is probably the best historical comparison to this team losing Lamonte Turner. And that group’s 15-16 (7-9) finish shows the importance of winning close games, which can be the difference between the bubble and not even making the NIT in a season like this.

It’s why any win is a good one now, including a one-point slugfest against South Carolina. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which would at least send them to the SEC Tournament in the bubble conversation. The league has two ranked teams in Auburn and Kentucky, and then a lot of iffiness. Arkansas lost some of their momentum in a two-point loss at LSU, while the Tigers regained their close game magic in a 3-0 SEC start.

The Vols will keep figuring out, and it’s fun to watch the freshmen get better, not just Vescovi and James who play a lot, but guys like Drew Pember who can find themselves in crucial situations. The difference in this year ending at .500 and landing on the right side of the bubble is likely to be what the Vols do in close games. In SEC play, so far, so good.

What’s Next in Recruiting?

With a lot of news to digest, from the transfer of skill players RB/WR Miles Jones and WR Velus Jones as well as OL Cade Mays, to the decision of All-American OL Trey Smith, a few thoughts below on how that might affect Tennessee’s approach to the February signing period:

With those transfers, Tennessee has now added 23 players in the 2020 class, leaving two spots before any monkeying with the numbers.  It’s not breaking news to say that DL Jay Hardy and ATH Dee Beckwith have those spots locked up should they want them and that whoever else might want in will be dependent on said numbers machinations. 

A quick thought on Beckwith: Although this writer has been a bit critical of his apparent love for basketball, perhaps to the detriment of his future in football, that opinion has changed somewhat as his focus seems to have narrowed back to football.  Further, and more importantly, watching how Florida (his other finalist) featured a *very* similar player in TE Kyle Pitts as almost the focal point of its offense, his value as a prospect has increased.  Were Tennessee to land Beckwith (who visits Tennessee January 31st after tripping to UK and UF) and develop him into a player like Pitts, that would be massive for an offense that continues to evolve with multiple different kinds of players, from big-bodied WRs like Josh Palmer to speed demons like Jalin Hyatt to more Swiss Army types like Jimmy Calloway, Jimmy Holiday, and the aforementioned Mr. Jones’s. 

To the degree that Tennessee was searching for another OL in this class, one would think that the addition of Mays ends that search.  5-star UGA commitment Broderick Jones had planned to officially visit Knoxville next weekend – the first one after the dead period ends – but that appears to be off.  Whether that was a decision made by Jones or by Tennessee (likely sensing that the chances of stealing Jones were low) is unknown and meaningless.  But with the strong likelihood that former commitment Kyree Miller ends up elsewhere (100% a Tennessee decision) and the Vols also having cancelled a previously planned OV for Jalen St John, it appears that Tennessee has closed the door on adding another OL in the 2020 class.  And considering the Vols signed a trio of really nice OL prospects in Cooper Mays, James Robinson, and Javontez Spraggins and then added Cade Mays, that’s smart roster management

In contrast, despite adding two bigtime WR prospects last month in Hyatt and Calloway to go with the two transfers, Tennessee is still in the market for another WR.  But while many thought that would be Rock Hill, SC native Ger-Cari Caldwell, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of traction on either/both sides there.  Instead, news broke on Friday that Tennessee will instead be hosting 4-star FSU commitment Malachi Wideman next weekend before Wideman trips to Oregon and then Florida Atlantic for his final two visits.  With Wideman having already taken his OV to FSU (as well as Washington State), the Vols could be in a strong position for the SI All-American and 247 Sports Top 140 prospect.  Wideman is a freak athlete whose strength on the gridiron comes from his elite size/athleticism combo, and his upside lies in the fact that he’s still raw when it comes to the technical aspects of the position.  He also happens to be a high level basketball player, so should the Vols seek to enlist Rick Barnes (ala the Dee Beckwith recruitment) that could be a feather in their cap here.  He’s the kind of prospect you make room for, period.  So it will be very interesting to see how this one shakes out.

Another potential transfer name to keep an eye on is former UGA LB/S Otis Reese.  Reese, who signed with the Bulldogs in the class of 2018 as a Top 100 prospect, entered the transfer portal last week.  He was recruited heavily by both Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley when both were at Alabama, and also notably he hails from the same South Georgia high school (Lee Co.) as current Vol DL Aubrey Solomon.  Reese is a bit of a tweener, but was running with the 1’s for UGA last spring before contracting mono which set him back heavily.  Once that happened he was passed by in the depth chart by former 5-star Lewis Cine and that was that.  Regardless, he’s an elite athlete with a reputation as a bigtime hitter – the kind of talent even a heavily upgraded Tennessee roster could use.  There hasn’t been much said publicly about Reese’s future plans, but one would think the Vols will be a major player should they choose to be

Tennessee-South Carolina four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Basically even, but Tennessee is shooting better from three.

Summary and Score Prediction

The weatherman isn’t always right, and although Tuesday night’s forecast of ugly shooting percentages never happened, we’re doubling down on that this weekend. The Vols have to correct their turnover issues as they are literally giving games away, but improving that this weekend may be difficult. The game may be won at the foul line.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Whatever they did to shoot well despite playing a good defense at Missouri Tuesday, do that again. If they can get above 50% from two and 45% from three again, awesome. But even their averages of 43% and 33% would be good against a good defensive team.
  2. It will be difficult against a defensively active team like South Carolina, but the Vols have to protect the ball better. Aim for 12 or fewer turnovers.
  3. Win an apparently even rebounding matchup.
  4. Make the most of an advantage at getting to the foul line themselves while playing aggressive defense on the other end without fouling. The goal here is to get to 20 attempts while keeping South Carolina to under 20.

KenPom gives Tennessee an 81% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, South Carolina 62.

My prediction: Tennessee 73, South Carolina 67.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee is a better-shooting team overall. Among prior Vols’ opponents, South Carolina is most like Jacksonville State and Florida A&M in that department. We scored 75 and 72 against those teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys protect the ball much better than the Vols do. They do it as well as VCU and LSU.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Again, South Carolina is much better at grabbing offensive rebounds than are the Vols. Best comps are Memphis and Florida State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Tennessee and South Carolina are pretty comparable when it comes to Free Throw Rate.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.2 (No. 46).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ eFG% is 47.5 (No. 241), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.5 (No. 31).

Conclusions

Both defenses are equipped to make things difficult for the opposing offenses. We said this about that last game against Missouri, though, and it didn’t seem to bother the Vols, so we’ll see. I’d still expect to see both offenses struggle a bit more than usual.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20.9 (No. 257), while the Gamecocks’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.9 (No. 63). They Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category until they earn some dramatic improvement.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 149), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 142).

Conclusions

I’d expect the Vols to be focusing on correcting their turnovers problem, but I wouldn’t expect too much noticeable improvement tomorrow against the Gamecocks.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 114). South Carolina’s defense in that category is 28.1 (No. 163).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ OR% is 32.6 (No. 61), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.4 (No. 73).

Conclusions

This appears to be an evenly-matched game from a rebounding perspective.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.8 (No. 133), while South Carolina’s defense against that is 46.6 (No. 344).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ FT Rate is 34.2 (No. 119), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.2 (No. 61).

Conclusions

It appears that the Vols should be able to both get to the foul line more often than usual and keep South Carolina from getting there as often as it usually does.

Go Vols.

Something You Don’t See Every Day

We all want to win. Even after a remarkable second half to the 2019 season and a six-game winning streak, we’re all tired of years without banners or bowls we’d never grow tired of talking about.

We want our players to do well. We wanted that for Dobbs and Barnett and Kamara and Jauan and Cordarrelle and everyone else who found bright spots in the last 10+ years, and all the ones who didn’t.

We’ll want to win next year, and we’ll want the players who make up the 2020 Vols to do well. But it’s been a long time since we’ll have wanted a Tennessee team to win because we wanted it this much for an individual.

There are great stories out there to be told. This could be especially true for Jarrett Guarantano going forward, his rags turning into greater riches than the fine folks at Taxslayer can afford. Every season tells a story.

But if Trey Smith is coming back, then (Fulmerized), we might as well win them all.

Trey and his inner circle – whoever he considers that to be – get to be the experts on his decision making, and I know it surprised many of us to hear that news today, delivered in an impeccable late-90’s Louisiana accent. There’s some line out there between fact and fable when we talk about him risking his life to play for us. But Trey and his circle always get to be the ones to decide where that line is. One fact he seems quite clear on:

Trey Smith would’ve been loved around here for a long time if he went pro, whether he became an NFL star or not. He entered new territory in that department today. And aside from our admiration for him playing at all and making this choice, now he’s got a chance to earn some rare accolades.

John Henderson and Will Overstreet both earned consecutive first-team All-SEC honors in 2000 and 2001. Since then, only one Vol – Eric Berry – has been named first-team All-SEC twice.

Charles McRae and Antone Davis were both first round draft picks in 1991. Since then, only one Vol offensive lineman – Ja’Wuan James – has been selected in the first round.

Trey Smith, number one in your hearts today and for a long time to come, can also be number one on a lot of other lists, and a lot of other “first time since”s.

And if one of the biggest questions for 2020 was, “Who leads?” Ding ding ding.

We always want to win. But today, by itself and especially as the culmination of everything after September, will take us to a set of expectations we haven’t enjoyed for a few years, thanks to a player we’ll want good things for more than any other in even longer.

Trey Smith is coming back. Might as well win.

Go Vols.

Predicting the national championship game using SPM comps

The LSU Tigers are currently 5.5-point favorites to beat the Clemson Tigers in Monday night’s national championship game. Honestly, if I went with my gut yesterday, I would have picked LSU to cover that spread without hesitation. I’ve watched them play. I’ve consistently underappreciated how prolific that offense is and misjudged how badly they’d beat good teams with good defenses. LSU to cover, probably big, amirite?

So I was surprised when I fired up the SPM this morning and it spit out a tie game. My first inclination was that something had gone wrong and that I was going to have to scrap the idea of doing an SPM National Championship preview post because I didn’t trust the results myself.

But looking at the details of why the SPM came to that conclusion — along with its performance over the course of the bowl season — made me re-think things. With one game left to play, the SPM is 25-15 (62.5%) for bowl season. We value Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions as the gold standard we measure against around here, and even that is only 18-22 (45%) for bowl season. So I figured it’s worth taking a look at why the SPM doesn’t think LSU is a clear favorite Monday night against Clemson, and then we can all decide for ourselves whether or not to listen.

LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9
  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5

The Clemson scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Georgia 12.6
  • Florida 15.5

LSU had no trouble against the Gators, scoring 42 points despite the fact that Florida allowed an average of only 12.6 points all season. The same is true with respect to Georgia: LSU scored 37 on the Bulldogs. When LSU plays a team with a defense like Clemson’s, its offense scores almost three times as many points as those teams usually give up. It’s not unreasonable to think that LSU can score 30 points against a really good Clemson defense. The SPM predicts 32.2 points for LSU.

Clemson’s points:

  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6
  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3

The Clemson scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

  • Alabama 47.2
  • Oklahoma 42.1

LSU couldn’t stop Alabama, which got 41 points against them, but they did pretty well against Oklahoma, which they held to only 28. Those are two quite different results against similar offenses. Taken together, it’s 77% of what those teams usually get; Oklahoma alone got only 67% of what it usually gets. That would make it 30-35 points for Clemson against LSU. The SPM puts it at 34.9 points for Clemson against LSU.

Estimated score: Clemson 34.9, LSU 32.2

From the perspective of Clemson

Clemson’s points:

  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3
  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Texas A&M 22.5
  • North Carolina 23.7

Clemson scored 21 points against North Carolina and 24 points against Texas A&M. Basically, when the Clemson offense goes up against a defense like LSU’s, they generally get about what those teams usually give up. The SPM says that’s 21 points for Clemson against LSU.

LSU’s points:

  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5
  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s):

  • Ohio State 46.9
  • Louisville 33.1

That Louisville comp is not especially helpful, but the Ohio State comp is. The Buckeyes got only 23 points against Clemson’s defense (49% of what they usually score). If that’s indicative, Clemson might just be able to hold LSU to half its usual point total, or 24 points. Because it includes the Louisville comp, the SPM says 21 points for LSU against Clemson, but I’m going to override it and call it 24.

Estimated score: LSU 24, Clemson 21

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28

SPM Final estimated spread: LSU -.1

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 5.4

Eyeball adjustments

As I said in the opening paragraph, my gut pick is LSU to cover and probably to cover comfortably. But after looking at those numbers, “comfortably” is off the table for me and even covering is in question. If I had to make a pick, I’d say LSU does not cover, and I would no longer be surprised if Clemson won outright.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is LSU 31, Clemson 28.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU is a 5.5-point favorite. With an over/under of 68.5 to 69.5, that translates to something like LSU 37, Clemson 32.

I have not yet seen Connelly’s SP+ prediction, but I’ll update once it’s available.

ESPN’s FPI gives . . . Clemson a 55.8% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM thinks this is basically a pick ’em, so it does not like LSU to cover the 5.5-point spread. My gut — which likes LSU to cover comfortably — has been reined in by the machine, so I now like LSU to win, but only barely.

  • Vegas: LSU -5.5 (~LSU 37, Clemson 32)
  • SP+: TBD
  • SPM: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • Me: LSU 31, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • FPI: Clemson, 55.8% chance of winning

What do y’all think?

Tennessee 69, Missouri 59: Never mind

Tennessee came into last night’s game against Missouri with one of the SEC’s worst shooting percentages, turning the ball over 13.5 times per game, still breaking in a just-now-Coming-to-America point guard, and navigating the delicate issue of a Jordan Bowden shooting slump. Traveling to Columbia, Missouri to take on a Cuonzo Martin team 5th in the nation in KenPom’s defensive effective field goal percentage seemed like the makings of a bad night for the Vols.

Never mind.

Not only were the Vols unfazed by Missouri’s defense, they improved their averages rather dramatically. Coming into the game sporting season-long shooting percentages of 42.6% from the field and 31.8% from the arc, Tennessee hit 53.5% from the field and 45.8% from three.

Never mind that Bowden slump, either, as he went 5-12 (41.67%) from the field and 2-7 (28.57%) from three. He’s still better than that, but seeing the ball go through the hole for Bowden is a welcome sight.

Meanwhile, the Vols defense held Missouri to 35.2% from the field and 36% from the arc. Only two Missouri players — Mitchell Smith and Tray Jackson — hit double figures. Contrast that to Tennessee, who had six players in double figures on the night.

That flurry of turnovers we forecasted yesterday did in fact happen, but new point guard Santiago Vescovi didn’t have 64% of them this time like he did against LSU. He led the clubhouse with 5, but John Fulkerson also had 5, and Josiah Jordan-James had 4. Several others got into the action as well: Yves Pons had 3, Olivier Nkamhoua had 2, and Bowden and Jalen Johnson each had one.

Vescovi, by the way, not only improved his ball-protection, he basically took over in the second half, going on an 8-0 run by himself with six minutes remaining and the score tied at 53. This guy needs a nickname, stat.

I know that Jeremiah Tilmon didn’t play for Missouri and that that mattered last night. But two games in to the Great Reset of 2019-20, the Vols are miles away from whatever happened in that Wisconsin game. If they can continue to improve at anything close to that rate, there might be some magic in store for this season after all.