Gameday on Rocky Top

Good to Great

Now that the Vols have put the finishing touches* on an outstanding 2020 recruiting class, attention turns fully to the class of 2021. And by “fully,” we note that not only does Tennessee already have six public commitments in the class but Coach Jeremy Pruitt and his staff have also gotten dozens if not hundreds of 2021 (and beyond) prospects on campus already. After a relatively strong “stub” class of 2018 that he cobbled together in a matter of weeks after being hired, Pruitt has stacked back to back Top 10 classes in 2019 and 2020 along with a handful of high-impact transfers. On top of that, the 2019 class proved to be not just top heavy with a handful of 5-star level prospects but also both deep and immediately impactful on the field. Out of 23 total signees, the 2020 class includes 16 players ranked as 4-star or above by one of the two major recruiting services, a 70% “blue chip” ratio, bringing in star power throughout the class . And that of course does not count the two scholarship transfers in OL Cade Mays (former 5-star) and WR Velus Jones (former 4-star) or even the walk-on transfer ATH Miles Jones (former 4-star). The numbers back up what we can all see with our own eyes: Pruitt has transformed the roster from one that went 4-8 overall and 0-8 in the SEC in 2017 to what will likely be viewed as an SEC East darkhorse in 2020.

When you combine the onfield momentum that comes from winning six games in a row with the player development that Pruitt and his staff have exhibited along with the influx of talent coming in the class of 2020, it’s easy to see why there is so much optimism on Rocky Top. And that is what makes the class of 2021 that much more important. If Pruitt is truly going to get the Tennessee program to the point where the Vols are legitimate contenders for the SEC Eastern Division, the SEC Championship, the College Football Playoff, and the National Championship, there are still steps to be taken in terms of talent and depth. This is the class that will have the benefit of a) the huge win streak; b) a 2020 schedule that includes a prestigious intersectional game at Oklahoma (likely to be broadcast in primetime on ABC) along with showcase home games against Florida and Alabama; c) years of relationship development with 2021 prospects; and d) the best top to bottom recruiting staff** that Pruitt has had since he’s been the head coach, and arguably the best at Tennessee in well over a decade. Pruitt and Tennessee therefore must capitalize with the kind of 2021 class that firmly establishes the program among the elites when it comes to talent. That means continuing to grow that “blue chip ratio” and even more importantly beating out the top programs in the country for more of the class than ever before.

As for the existing six 2021, commitments, they are good ones. Two of them (WR Jordan Mosley and DL Isaac Washington) already hold offers from at least one elite program (see below) and the other four are camp/eval offers that Pruitt and Co. have strong track record with – history says that at least a few if not all of them will receive offers from other bigtime programs as well as ratings bumps. Further, although it is relatively early, Tennessee has placed itself firmly in the mix at (i.e., with a strong chance of receiving at least an official visit) for more than three dozen “elite” prospects, as defined by players who have legit offers from one of the following programs:

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Georgia
Florida
LSU
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State

The above have at least one College Football Playoff appearance and/or at least one NY6 bowl game AND multiple recent recruiting classes that consistently land in the Top 5-10 nationally. They also have recruiting footprints that mostly overlap with the Tennessee (some, like Oregon and Oklahoma, are national like Tennessee’s). Those “elite” prospects include:

QB Christian Veilleux
RB Cody Brown
RB Treyvon Henderson
WR Adonai Mitchell
WR Donte Thornton
WR Romello Brinson
WR Jaquez Smith
WR Julian Nixon
OL Dietrick Pennington
OL William Griffin
OL Terrence Ferguson
TE Trinity Bell
TE Hudson Wolfe
ATH Tray Curry
DL Payton Page
DL Jahvaree Ritzie
DL Victoine Brown
DL Joshua Farmer
DL Javon Nelson
DL Tim Keenan
DL Leonard Taylor
OLB Demeioun Robinson
OLB Dylan Brooks
OLB Jeremiah Williams
OLB Smael Mondon
OLB Kristian Zachary
OLB Zavier Carter
OLB Justus Boone
ILB Terrence Lewis
ILB Junior Colson
ILB Ian Jackson
ILB Raneiria Dillworth
DB Andre Turrentine
DB Kyndrich Breedlove
DB Isaiah Johnson
DB Nyland Green
DB Khari Gee
DB Nathaniel Wiggins
DB Devonta Smith
DB Kamar Wilcoxson
DB Ryan Barnes
ATH Trenton Adkins

The above list leaves out some of the very recently offered OL like Jaleel Davis, Diego Pounds, Colby Smith and Jakiah Leftwich, WRs like Malachai Bennett and Christian Lewis, and likely many more prospects who seem likely to add those types of offers on top of Tennessee already getting involved. It also does not include many of the instate prospects that Tennessee has offered and continues to evaluate. The bottom line is that the 2021 class has to be great, and early indications are that Tennessee has put itself in position to make it great. Next steps are obvious: get more elite players to campus when the dead period ends in March; set up April’s Orange & White Game to be a recruiting extravaganza; continue to get players back to campus over the summer; keep applying lessons learned; and then capitalize on the field in the 2020 season and off the field in December 2020 and February 2021.

*Of course Tennessee could end up adding 5-star RB Zach Evans at some point in the spring/early summer

** With the news that Director of Player Personnel Drew Hughes has chosen to join good buddy Captain Will Muschamp aboard the sinking ship that is Gamecock Football, Pruitt has a chance to upgrade the staff again, and potentially poach one of his SEC rivals or dip into the NFL ranks in the process

*** EDIT: With news breaking from Volquest that DL Coach Tracy Rocker is leaving to also join South Carolina, the opportunity for Pruitt to upgrade his coaching staff from a recruiting perspective has perhaps never been greater. Pruitt will not only be able to sell a program on the rise and a hefty salary but also a depth and talent-laden DL to work with immediately and blue chip youth to mold. Rocker was as bad on the recruiting trail and he was good on the practice field, so Pruitt needs to find the right balance. Given the above to work with he should be able to easily do so.

Kentucky 77 Tennessee 64 – Our Chances

You have to love this Tennessee team. On the Vol Network postgame, Bob Kesling said John Fulkerson drew 12 of Kentucky’s 21 fouls, he of the fresh haircut and 16 points. I’m not sure Fulkerson was ever supposed to be Plan B for this team, and now he’s Plan A against Kentucky. Santiago Vescovi has been here for a heartbeat, and can be a feast or a famine every time he touches the ball. Today he scored 18 points and only turned it over thrice…

Just wait until Vescovi actually knows what he’s doing.
— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 8, 2020

It wasn’t enough today. It was enough to give the Vols a chance: down five with 2:30 to play, Jordan Bowden got as good of a look as you could ask for against these guys, and just missed. Tennessee shot 7-of-26 from the arc; they can survive South Carolina and Alabama at a percentage like that, but not Kentucky. And these particular Cats are ruthless at the free throw line and really good at getting there: 22-of-25 today, taking advantage of every opportunity and giving the Vols no second chances after that missed three.

Barnes said in the postgame that this team is getting better, and he’s right. It’s not just a static “good game” idea that the Vols had a shot against Kentucky without Lamonte Turner and Josiah James. Fulkerson is so much more than we thought he could be, Pons means you’re never quite sure you’re beat on a play, and when Vescovi feasts the whole team eats well.

They’re running out of chances to get better fast enough to make the dance floor: the Vols fall to 13-10 (5-5) with a quick, tough turnaround in hosting Arkansas on Tuesday night. But at least this ragtag group of players, in playing hard and being fun to root for, is giving us more than just an, “Oh well, wait til the freshmen get here.” Today’s performance was another reason to be excited about getting Fulkerson, Pons, and Vescovi back next season too.

Kentucky snaps a four-game losing streak in Knoxville, and moves into a three-way tie with Auburn and LSU at 8-2 in league play. The Vols need wins. I don’t know if they’ll get better in ways that lead to the bracket. But there was still some in encouragement in the way they played today, even in having to let go of a streak we thoroughly enjoyed against Kentucky.

Keep The Blue Out

Once upon a time, Kentucky won 11 straight in this series. Jerry Green’s Vols broke that streak in Rupp Arena, and Tennessee won four of seven from 1999-2002. Then Kentucky was at it again, winning eight in a row.

Bruce Pearl’s Vols broke that streak, also in Rupp Arena. Pearl finished his time in Knoxville at 4-9 against the Cats – which was progress considering where we’d been in this rivalry – but that came after a 3-3 split his first three years. The Vols beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville in 2010, but that was Tennessee’s only win in a ten game stretch against the Cats.

Kentucky’s last win in Knoxville during that stretch was in 2012, when the eventual national champions escaped with a three-point win in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. The next year in Knoxville, the Vols unleashed a shocking 30-point beat down on Kentucky. A temporary bad scheduling idea from the league office meant the game wasn’t played in Knoxville in 2014. Kentucky’s almost-undefeated juggernaut won in Knoxville against Donnie Tyndall’s squad in 2015.

And then Rick Barnes arrived. The Vols are 6-4 against Kentucky since then, 4-0 in Knoxville.

The Cats have one victory in Knoxville in the last seven years.

Any win over these guys is always special. But there was a time when any win was an oasis in the desert. There was a time when Kentucky fans filled the upper deck with an expectation of an easy trip to Knoxville. For Tennessee to turn the tide in this rivalry this way, especially in Knoxville, is unheard of in my lifetime. It’s a great season to be a Tennessee Vol.

Every Kentucky squad to roll through here in Barnes’ tenure has been ranked, as you’d expect. Tennessee beat the Cats in Knoxville at #20, #4, #17, and #4. And we’re getting ready to catch them at #15.

They did it by shooting 30-of-34 at the free throw line in 2016. They did it with an all-time J.P. Prince stat line from freshman Grant Williams in 2017 (13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 0 turnovers, and the game-winner). They did it with a 16-3 second half run in 2018, erasing an eight-point halftime deficit. And last year they did it with defense, holding Kentucky to 14 field goals and 31.8% from the floor.

There’s no one way it’s happened for Barnes. Many of the heroes of the last three wins are gone, but the Vols also beat Kentucky with 18 points and 13 rebounds from Armani Moore in 2016, and 25 points from Robert Hubbs in 2015. Barnes has found a way to get the best from everyone, not just the superstars, in this match-up in Knoxville. We will need it to keep this thing going.

There is no March without February

The bracket remains a simple computation: Tennessee needs wins, and the schedule is strong enough that just about any path to 18-19 regular season wins gets you in the conversation. Home wins are easier, and getting Kentucky up on the board certainly looks better. This is the first of two shots the Vols will get at the Cats, with two more against Auburn also on the horizon. This team will have its chances for marquee wins. Might as well start here.

To do that, Tennessee needs to take advantage of both the good news and the bad news in this match-up. First, the good news: for a Tennessee team that struggles so mightily with turnovers, Kentucky doesn’t present much of a challenge on paper. The Cats are 280th nationally in turnovers forced, 305th in steals forced. Like the Vols and plenty of Calipari teams of the past, they like to block shots and let that create the necessary havoc defensively without having to gamble and give up easy buckets.

…with one notable exception: Ashton Hagans, who will almost certainly go against Santiago Vescovi when both are in the game. Hagans is 74th nationally in steals, and Vescovi is currently giving it away on around 30% of his possessions. If Josiah James doesn’t play again, it puts a lot of pressure minutes on Vescovi (and Jordan Bowden, who is typically much better with ball security). Hagans is good enough to disrupt this whole equation by himself. If that happens, the Vols will have a very difficult time getting this done.

On the other end of the floor, Kentucky presents a similar challenge to the Mississippi State squad that decimated Tennessee’s defense in the second half. The Cats like to run three guards with two elite big men: 6’11” Nick Richards and 6’10” E.J. Montgomery. Richards in particular has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points and 10 rebounds over Kentucky’s last six games against a really tough schedule. Auburn did a good job limiting him without fouling, but he shot 14 free throws against Texas Tech and 15 against Mississippi State.

The Vols were the aggressor against Alabama, and as was the case with the home win over South Carolina, the free throw line made all the difference. Kentucky is typically the aggressor: fifth nationally in free throw rate.

Free throw numbers the last 10 games for @Vol_Hoops 5-5

Last 5 losses
UT: 43-of-61
Opp: 95-of-127

Last 5 wins
UT: 90-of-114
Opp: 56-of-85

So, being aggressive, playing inside-out and getting to the free throw line works.
— Vince Ferrara (@VinceSports) February 5, 2020

Watch the lineups in this one, especially if James doesn’t play again. The Vols made most of their hay against Alabama with Uros Plavsic in foul trouble; this is a big-boy spot for him. Maybe we walk away from this one just shaking our heads and saying Kentucky’s bigs were a bad match-up for us. But we’ve seen Pons and Fulkerson hold their own against elite bigs from Washington; we’ve just also seen everyone get carved up by Mississippi State’s. Which way is this one going to go?

Saturday, 1:00 PM, CBS. Can Knoxville come alive again for the Vols against Big Blue Nation? Can Tennessee make win #14 their best one yet?

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Kentucky four factors preview: Queue up the Alabama playlist

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Kentucky Wildcats. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

It should come as no surprise at this point that a Tennessee opponent has better shooting numbers than the Vols. Turnovers and offensive rebounds look about even, but Kentucky is better at defensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line.

Summary and Score Prediction

Shooting Blues, the Vols got ’em and probably aren’t getting rid of them tomorrow against Kentucky, but should be kept in the game by their shooting defense. Expect no surprises relating to turnovers for either team, but expect a fair amount of frustration in the form of offensive boards and trips to the free-throw line for Kentucky.

The goals for the Vols:

As always, make the most of the advantage on defense because the offense is probably going to need it.
Minimize Kentucky’s offensive boards by boxing out and getting the ball after missed shots.
That thing you did against Alabama to buck the trend of them living at the line? Do that again against the guys in blue.

KenPom gives Tennessee a somewhat surprising 51% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Kentucky 65. WooGoVols!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, turnovers per game may look even, but turnover percentage is a different story. Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Kentucky is most like Chattanooga and VCU, and they appear to be much better than the Vols.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and Murray State. Not a whole lot better than Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Oof. The best team we’ve played so far this season at getting to the line. But here’s a bit of good news: Alabama averages nearly 29 trips to the line per game, and against Tennessee they only got there 8 times. More of that magic, please.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Ugh. The crystal ball says more frustrating shooting percentages for the Vols tomorrow against the Wildcats. Fortunately, they should have some trouble with Tennessee’s defense, too.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee comes bearing gifts, but apparently Kentucky is too proud to take charity or something. On the other end, the Wildcats do a better job of protecting the ball once they have it, but the Vols are better burglars. Weakness on weakness and meh against meh.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The news here is that Tennessee is all too willing to give up offensive boards, so Kentucky could go on a spree. The Vols are getting better at this, though, so maybe not.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that we could get to the line some but they could spend most of the game there. As I said before, the good news is that this spot forecasted terribly for the Alabama game, and the Vols shot 32 free throws to the Tide’s 8. Again! Again! Again!

Go Vols.

Street Fightin’ Man

“My goal is five years from now when I stand back up here, is for everyone to still be this excited. That’s my goal. I’m challenging everybody who is associated with this university. Let’s get our hands out of our pockets. Let’s roll our sleeves up. Let’s get ready to get in the streets with everyone else in the SEC. That’s what we have to do to be successful. If we want to get what we want, we have to outwork everyone. Let’s not talk about it. Let’s go do it. It starts today. Everyone associated with it, let’s get ready to go get what we want.”

We’ll have more on the two new signees individually, along with the impact we think this 2020 class will have on the future of Tennessee football, in the coming hours and days. But what needs to be said first and foremost is that Coach Jeremy Pruitt is doing *exactly* what he said he would do in his introductory press conference. And that is getting into street fights with the top programs in the top conference in the country, along with other national powers, and beating them for talent. Today’s two-for-two finish to National Signing Day includes one player Tennessee straight up beat out Florida for (Dee Beckwith) and one player (Malachi Wideman) who not only did Tennessee beat out homestate Florida State for (where he was committed to) but also Oregon, one of the top programs in the country for the last decade or more. That comes on the heels of December victories over Florida (Morven Joseph), Auburn (Omari Thomas), and Ohio State (Tyler Baron), along with multiple recruiting wins against the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and the like in his first two classes.

He’s done it in a variety of ways: Playing the long game with certain recruits, stepping in late and taking advantage of coaching changes elsewhere for others, and just outworking other programs. He’s upgraded his staff from a recruiting perspective from Year 1 to Year 2. And he’s also currently on the nation’s second longest winning streak (6) after digging the team out of a major hole.

Tennessee isn’t there yet. The roster still needs more talent and more depth. But it’s damn sure closer than it was when Pruitt got here, it’s closer than it was before the December signing period, it’s after the additions the Vols made from the transfer portal, and it’s even closer after today’s finish to the 2020 class.

Tennessee 69 Alabama 68 – Not So Fast

No Josiah James for the second game in a row, Bama on fire from three, foul trouble taking Uros Plavisc out of the equation…you’d be forgiven for shutting this thing down as it neared halftime. Alabama took a 39-24 lead with 1:49 to play in the first half after Plavsic picked up his third foul on a dead ball technical, sending some frustration Alabama’s way via a shot to the ribcage.

It wasn’t the sort of moment that felt like a turning point for Tennessee, because things genuinely felt too far gone. The Vols were staring at 12-10 (4-5) with an uphill climb in front of them on the schedule, ineffective in so many ways since almost winning at Kansas.

But the Vols did the same thing in that last 1:49 that got them all the way back in the next 20 minutes. Jordan Bowden hit two free throws. John Fulkerson hit two more. The Vols forced a turnover. And Fulkerson hit a big shot.

Alabama’s lead was down to eight at halftime. The Vols cut it to four in the first minute of the second half, then Kira Lewis hit a three, and then we stayed there for a while at 43-36. Another three put the Tide back up 10 with 15 minutes to play.

The Vols scored 36 points in those first 25 minutes, then scored 33 in the last 15.

Jordan Bowden was again a huge difference maker in the second half. He scored five straight points to get the Vols back within five, then knocked in another one to bring it down to two with 10 minutes to play. Fulkerson hit two free throws to tie it, Kira Lewis splashed a three, then Fulkerson hit two more free throws. A minute later, the Vols got the lead on two Bowden free throws. Rinse, repeat.

Bama would push back in front, but the Vols would push back. Tied at 61-61 with under four to go, we got this beauty:

https://twitter.com/TreyWallace_/status/1224874587684573186

(Uros Plavsic is the MVP of bench celebrations on this night.)

Alabama fans will be quick to point out the foul differential – 14 against the Vols, 26 on the Tide which eventually disqualified their three best post players – but we’ll be quick to point out how bad the Vols had been at getting to the line in league play, and what a huge difference it can make.

Tennessee never trailed after Fulkerson’s slam, but Bama had a shot down two in the final seconds. Yves Pons said no:

Yves Pons with the huge block for Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/KpTIeEhhyt
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) February 5, 2020

…and then made two free throws to put the Vols up four, making Bama’s buzzer three meaningless.

What a huge win, in joyous and unexpected fashion.

The Vols were 2-of-18 from three and survived Bama hitting 11 of them by way of 23-of-32 at the line. Alabama shot eight free throws. Offensive rebounds, the bane of Tennessee’s existence last week? Nine for the Tide, 19 (!!!) for the Vols. Kentucky will present a much bigger challenge, literally and figuratively, in this department, but kudos to the Vols for completely turning this aspect around.

And while the Vols still had 13 turnovers of their own, Alabama gave it away 20 times. All of Tennessee’s weaknesses saw vast improvement tonight, and it was enough for a big Quad I win on the road.

Fulkerson finishes with 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting, including 6-of-6 in the first half. He and Pons each had three blocks. Bowden struggled at 5-of-17 but still finished with 20 points because he got to the line 11 times. The Vols still got very little scoring from their bench – two from Drew Pember- but got great hustle minutes and two steals from Davonte Gaines. Santiago Vescovi was 2-of-15 (!) from the floor but earned the J.P. Prince Stat Sheet of the Night: 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and only 1 turnover.

It was easy to give up on this game and, in some ways, this team late in the first half. And yet, they found a way by minimizing their weaknesses and maximizing the free throw line. It’s fun to watch guys like Fulkerson get better and then know they’ll also be around next year to play with all the new toys. But tonight’s win also keeps the Vols in the hunt this season. And Big Blue Nation is up next.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Alabama four factors preview:

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow: