Gameday on Rocky Top

For NCAA Tournament purposes, Tennessee’s formula remains much the same as it was two weeks ago: the Vols need wins, and their closing schedule should be strong enough that it doesn’t matter much how they get to 18-13 or 19-12 as long as they get there. Coming into the month, we looked at historical data on teams earning the final at-large bids: since tournament expansion to 68 in 2011, no team has earned an at-large bid with less than 19 wins or more than 15 losses. Three different SEC teams got in at 19-15 in the last three years.

A 17-14 (9-9) finish could send the Vols to Nashville with a chance to get to 19-15 by way of two SEC Tournament wins. But the uniqueness of Tennessee’s case – games with and without Lamonte Turner – makes me think you really need to get to at least 18 regular season wins to give yourself a more realistic chance.

The NCAA’s NET ratings are too new for reliable historical data, but last year the four teams who went to Dayton – Arizona State, Belmont, St. John’s, and Temple – finished 63rd, 47th, 73rd, and 56th. Ohio State earned the final non-Dayton at-large bid at 55th. Last year’s 10 seeds – Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, and Seton Hall – finished 31st, 43rd, 61st, and 57th. The Vols are currently 63rd in NET, so they’re within the margin on a one-year sample size. The Gators were 19-15 last season but finished 14th nationally in strength of schedule.

Tennessee is tough to predict on that front – the Vols are 53rd currently in KenPom’s SOS rating – and that number may go down a bit after the Vols host Vanderbilt on Tuesday. But it will only go up after that – at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn – I’m just not sure exactly how high. Bart Torvik’s predictive data projects it to finish 39th. Warren Nolan’s projects it to finish fifth. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.

One of the biggest problems Tennessee has right now is Washington, who’s been in absolute free fall: the Huskies have lost seven in a row, five of them by six points or less, and are 2-11 after a 10-2 start. They’ve fallen out of Quadrant 1, leaving the Vols with just two such victories (VCU, at Alabama). The good news on that: it removes some of the Lamonte Turner bias from the equation.

The Vols, of course, will get at least five Quad 1 opportunities in their final seven games (home vs NET 1-30, neutral vs NET 1-50, away vs NET 1-75). That starts with an on-fire South Carolina team in Columbia tomorrow.

If you’re looking for the most straightforward path to 18-13 (10-8), it’s winning out at home (Vandy, Florida, Auburn) and beating South Carolina on the road. That scenario also gives the Vols an elite win over Auburn (in the season finale), a happier scenario than getting to 18 wins but losing to Auburn and Kentucky twice. After watching the Vols dismantle Arkansas on Tuesday, if you want to replace tomorrow with the February 26th trip to Fayetteville as the most winnable road game, fine by me. KenPom’s math still gives the Vols slightly better odds in Columbia at 41% vs 32% at Arkansas.

So nothing about Tennessee’s NCAA fate will be decided at South Carolina. The Vols need 18 or 19 wins to go to the SEC Tournament feeling like they’ve got a real chance. Lose tomorrow and you need to go 4-2 down the stretch. Win tomorrow and you’re already at 15; follow it up with a home win over Vanderbilt (more can’t-lose than must-win), and you go to a CBS game at Auburn at 16-10 (8-5), and you’re back in the conversation much faster.

Either way, the Vols just need wins. And this one will be harder to come by than we bargained for.

This chicken is spicy and last time it gave me heartburn.

Tennessee beat South Carolina 56-55 on January 11 with heavy usage from the word “despite”: the Vols made just 14 shots and went 25.9% from the floor. The latter would’ve been a decade-low if not for the 25% performance against Memphis. But the Vols held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, the Gamecocks hit just two threes on thirteen attempts, and most importantly, the Vols went 22-of-28 at the free throw line.

That loss dropped South Carolina to 8-7 (0-2), their third straight defeat including one at home to the Hatters of Stetson. And so right on cue, they beat Kentucky the next game out. And now they’ve won seven of nine.

The schedule hasn’t been overly challenging after Kentucky – they lost at Auburn by 13 and won at Arkansas by two – but they’re getting better along the way. They just beat Texas A&M by 20 and won at Georgia by 16 in a game they led by 24 with four minutes to play. Confidence is high.

As you’d expect, it’s defense: at Georgia they went just 11-of-19 from the line and 6-of-17 from the arc and still flat out dominated. They held the Dawgs to 3-of-24 from the arc and Anthony Edwards to 0-of-7, and turned Georgia over 19 times. Texas A&M started the game on a 9-0 spurt, then South Carolina went on a 61-21 (!!!) run. The Aggies turned it over 20 times and shot 28.6% from two and 25.9% from three.

If you’re looking for the best defense in conference play, it’s this one. The Gamecocks are first in effective FG% allowed, first in three point defense (25.7%), second in steals, third at defending inside the arc, and fourth in turnovers forced, blocked shots, and offensive rebounds allowed. It’s a robust unit that can bang with anyone with Maik Kotsar inside surrounded by four players 6’4″ and taller. Offensively in conference play, they’re more or less our equivalent – the Vols are seventh in offensive efficiency in league play, the Gamecocks eighth – but their defense makes a tremendous difference. The home losses to Stetson and Boston University cost them just about everything when it comes to the bracket, but this is not a team you want to play right now.

But since we have to, might as well go back to what worked last time, and what is far and away their greatest weakness:

Get The Whistle

South Carolina is last in the SEC in free throw rate allowed, getting called for contact on 53.4% of opponent attempts. And they are last in the SEC by a comical amount in free throw shooting at just 62.9% from the line. That game you just saw against Arkansas, where you complained about all the fouls? That’s the one you want tomorrow.

Nothing will be easy against South Carolina’s defense, but a few things have changed for the Vols offensively since January 11. John Fulkerson hadn’t quite leveled up yet, though he played well against the Gamecocks the first time at 5-of-7. He followed that up with the 2-of-2 performance at Georgia. Since then, Fulkerson averages nine attempts per game. He’s still 13th nationally in true shooting percentage (now 0-for-1 with a three attempt on the board). When he played well offensively against South Carolina it was more of a surprise. Now it’s the expectation and the focal point of Tennessee’s offense.

In turn, Jordan Bowden took 17 shots against the Gamecocks the first time and made just one of them, including 1-of-12 from three. Since then, Bowden averages 12.1 shots per game and 4.3 threes per game. He’s still there, but he’s attacking the rim more, drawing fouls more, and I’d imagine feeling less of a burden that he’s all or nothing for this team without Lamonte.

And January 11 was game three for Santiago Vescovi, featuring three assists and seven turnovers. Again, South Carolina leads the league in steals, so I wouldn’t expect perfection this time. But here’s a fun little chart:

Santiago Vescovi Assists, Turnovers, Turnovers Per Minute

Opponent	Minutes	TO	TO/Min	Assists	A/TO
LSU	34	9	0.26	4	0.44
at Missouri	19	5	0.26	2	0.40
South Carolina	22	7	0.32	3	0.43
at Georgia	25	2	0.08	3	1.50
at Vanderbilt	25	5	0.20	2	0.40
Ole Miss	22	2	0.09	4	2.00
at Kansas	32	0	0.00	3	3.00
Texas A&M	37	2	0.05	6	3.00
at Mississippi St	31	3	0.10	5	1.67
at Alabama	38	1	0.03	5	5.00
Kentucky	39	3	0.08	2	0.67
Arkansas	31	3	0.10	8	2.67

I’d imagine Vescovi will play more than 22 minutes this time.

There are also rumblings the Vols might get Josiah-Jordan James back in the lineup, which means Vescovi and Bowden might not have to play 38 minutes. I’m curious to see if we get any Eastern European showdown this time with Plavsic vs Kotsar, but if JJJ is back the Vols can keep minutes balanced all over the floor with Pons and Fulkerson at the four and five.

Fulkerson is more consistent, Bowden won’t shoot that poorly or that often, and Vescovi is far more reliable than the first time around. But the way you beat this team remains: get to the rim, make them foul you, and don’t be afraid to get physical with them on the other end.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. It’s big. They’re all big now.

Go Vols.

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

With both Tennessee and South Carolina sporting excellent shooting defenses, the biggest factor will probably be which team is able to solve the problems created by the other and shoot a decent percentage anyway. For the Vols, the best opportunity to make this happen is to drive to the basket where the percentages are better and where South Carolina is likely to foul and put you on the line. Tennessee’s vulnerable in the turnover department and on the boards when the Gamecocks are shooting.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Solve the Gamecocks’ defense and shoot a higher percentage by driving to the basket and getting fouled.
2. Box out and rebound when South Carolina is shooting.
3. Don’t give the game away on turnovers.

You’ll recall that the Vols won the early matchup with the Gamecocks 56-55 in Knoxville. KenPom gives this one to the Gamecocks and puts the score at South Carolina 69, Tennessee 66.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Basically, us. Kind of like playing Mississippi or Missouri.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Mississippi and Kansas in the turnovers department. More careful with the ball than we are.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oh, a really good offensive rebounding team. Most like Florida State and Cincinnati.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Again, basically us. Most like playing Alabama or Missouri.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Two struggling shooting offenses going up against really, really good shooting defenses.

Turnover %

Conclusions

I really need to start putting trends in here because I feel like Tennessee is improving in turnovers and is being anchored down by its season-long numbers. But this shows potential trouble for the Vols if they haven’t improved, as South Carolina is pretty good at forcing turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

There’s danger on the glass when the Gamecocks are shooting.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Well. There’s some welcome good news. Tennessee isn’t exactly what you would call stellar at getting to the line (although, again, they’ve been doing better recently), but South Carolina likes to roll out the red carpet and pre-program your GPS to help you find your way there. We tend to do that a bit ourselves, but not quite to the extent SC does.

Go Vols.

You never know for sure in the league this year – Ole Miss is currently up 25 on Mississippi State – but we thought this might be a really good match-up for the Vols. And that’s exactly what we got: an Arkansas team with no player over 6’8″ found no advantage on the offensive glass and an inability to defend the Vols without fouling. The fouls actually ended up being a wash – Tennessee went 24-of-30, Arkansas 26-of-36 – and the Hogs’ commitment to three-point defense was fairly well represented too, as the Vols went 6-of-16 to Arkansas’ 5-of-16.

But the Vols found a huge difference in the paint, finishing +11 on the glass and getting high-percentage stuff from Jordan Bowden (5-of-9 from two), Yves Pons (4-of-7), an under-the-weather John Fulkerson (4-of-5) and a nice burst from Olivier Nkamhoua off the bench (2-of-2).

Two other factors were a real difference. The Vols started strong, building a 10-point lead in the first 10 minutes and a 17-point advantage at halftime. Arkansas got a bucket at the 17:47 mark in the second half to keep it at 17. Their next made basket came at 9:07, which cut the Tennessee lead to 25. Mason Jones, an SEC Player of the Year candidate, came off the bench in some apparent message-sending from Eric Mussleman. It didn’t work: the Vols held him to 1-of-10 from the floor, nine points total. He scored 30+ in three of his last four games.

And then there’s Santiago Vescovi. The “wait til he cleans some of his game up” stuff might be happening in the present: 20 points and eight assists tonight, including 3-of-4 from the arc.

The result is a game Tennessee controlled from start to finish, a 21-point win over a bubble squad. It moves Tennessee to 14-10 (6-5); again, the Vols just need wins. Seven games left, and the Vols need to win at least four of them. Vanderbilt is getting friskier by the minute, so maybe nothing will be easy. But opportunity will knock almost every night against this schedule, which goes next to Columbia to face a South Carolina team the Vols beat last time only by getting to the free throw line.

But Vescovi has become the poster child for both Tennessee’s bracket hopes and their argument: when you mix and match so many pieces midseason, sometimes you struggle…but sometimes you get a higher probability of your best basketball late in the year. Combined with the win at Alabama and what’s still a strong performance against Kentucky, the Vols are playing solid basketball right now. They’ll need it to become even more so the rest of the way home. But their point guard has become a real weapon as both scorer and facilitator, the Vols have done this without Josiah James three games in a row, and dominated tonight with Fulkerson at something less than 100%.

There’s a long way to go and an uphill climb to get there. But the Volunteer heart is still beating. And its pulse is getting stronger.

Go Vols.

There’s some emotional vulnerability in the air at Thompson-Boling tonight: the depleted Vols, who played hard and smart but just couldn’t get good looks to fall against their rivals over the weekend. And the Razorbacks, who weren’t even supposed to be here in Eric Mussleman’s first season, who were 16-5 (4-4) before losing consecutive games in overtime to Auburn and Missouri.

If you’re the Vols, you want to prevent what happened to Arkansas the second time around and let an emotional loss cost you a second game. Tennessee is also nicely positioned in the Ackbar seat, with Arkansas facing Mississippi State and Florida next.

But more than anything, this match-up is, on paper, more favorable to Tennessee than any on the rest of their schedule (non-Vanderbilt division).

Arkansas starts four players under 6’6″ and 6’8″ Reggie Chaney at center, who is the tallest player on their active roster. As such, the Razorbacks are one of the worst teams in college basketball at the thing that’s killed Tennessee the most recently: offensive rebounds. And they’re bad, in part, because they want to get back and set up their defense, which is built around taking away something the Vols don’t want much to do with anyway: three point shooting.

The Razorbacks are 336th nationally in offensive rebounding. They’re the best team in the country at defending the three, allowing 24.6% from the arc. Check and check for a Tennessee team that wants to go inside and won’t find much opposition in the way of height.

Honestly, every conversation with Arkansas should probably start with Mason Jones, one step ahead of Reggie Perry on the KenPom SEC Player of the Year race. The 6’5″ sophomore scored 18 points on the Vols last year, but it didn’t matter because Arkansas gave up 106. But you have to defend him everywhere: he gets the ball more than any player in the league, he’s responsible for 30% of Arkansas’ shots, and he’s tops in the league at drawing fouls. In the overtime loss at Auburn he took 12 twos, 12 threes, and 16 free throws, scoring 40 points in playing all 45 minutes.

There is a bit of a “just stop everyone else” with this team: he also had 34 in the loss to South Carolina on January 29. We’ve seen one player really wreck Tennessee when the Vols faced Anthony Edwards. If that’s the story again, Tennessee won’t have the firepower to match on the other end.

If you want the flicker of hope for the bracket, it looks like this: beat Arkansas at home tonight (50% in KenPom), get a win at South Carolina on Saturday (41%), take care of business against Vandy next Tuesday (84%). Then you’re 16-10 (8-5), and you’ve at least given yourself a chance against that ridiculous finish. There’s a lot to like in this match-up for the Vols. They just can’t let Jones wreck it by himself.

7:00 PM, SEC Network. You like the improvement from many of this team’s pieces. Now is the time for that improvement to lead to wins.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

The forecast for tonight against the Hogs calls not only for still more rain, but for more poor shooting percentages and more turnovers. In the midst of those dark skies, though, there is a shining beacon of light in the fact that Arkansas thinks rebounds have cooties and just won’t touch them. For a team struggling to shoot the ball but full of swagger on the other end, this is fantastic news and provides the best opportunity to turn all those lemons into lemonade. Also, if the Vols will just bang a little instead of shoot a lot, the Hogs will put them on the line.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss, but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
2. When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
3. Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.

Vegas likes the Vols by 2.5-3, but KenPom calls this one a toss-up and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Arkansas 65. Buckle up!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Kentucky and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols, as are most teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Oof. These guys are downright Scroogy. Sharing is caring, y’all.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Either these guys are allergic to the offensive glass or they never miss. I’m going with the former.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Washington and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s getting better, if they can just remember that the road to the foul line goes through defenders in a straight line to the rim rather than by trying to shoot over them.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Man, oh man. Will the Vols ever catch a break? Maybe the reason they’re not shooting well is that they’re playing really good shooting defenses every time they step on the court. On the other hand, defensive shooting percentage is still holding . . . steady.

Turnover %

Conclusions

LOL. This is like leaving the door wide open for a master burglar. Get ready to cringe. Oh, and they won’t return the favor because SCROOGE.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Not only are the Hogs allergic to the offensive glass, it looks like they just don’t like rebounding period. This is good news, both for a good shooting defense and a bad shooting offense.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Hogs will let you get to the foul line if only you decide to make it a priority. Do the Vols want to shoot free throws? Stay tuned!

Go Vols.

You have to love this Tennessee team. On the Vol Network postgame, Bob Kesling said John Fulkerson drew 12 of Kentucky’s 21 fouls, he of the fresh haircut and 16 points. I’m not sure Fulkerson was ever supposed to be Plan B for this team, and now he’s Plan A against Kentucky. Santiago Vescovi has been here for a heartbeat, and can be a feast or a famine every time he touches the ball. Today he scored 18 points and only turned it over thrice…

Just wait until Vescovi actually knows what he’s doing.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 8, 2020

It wasn’t enough today. It was enough to give the Vols a chance: down five with 2:30 to play, Jordan Bowden got as good of a look as you could ask for against these guys, and just missed. Tennessee shot 7-of-26 from the arc; they can survive South Carolina and Alabama at a percentage like that, but not Kentucky. And these particular Cats are ruthless at the free throw line and really good at getting there: 22-of-25 today, taking advantage of every opportunity and giving the Vols no second chances after that missed three.

Barnes said in the postgame that this team is getting better, and he’s right. It’s not just a static “good game” idea that the Vols had a shot against Kentucky without Lamonte Turner and Josiah James. Fulkerson is so much more than we thought he could be, Pons means you’re never quite sure you’re beat on a play, and when Vescovi feasts the whole team eats well.

They’re running out of chances to get better fast enough to make the dance floor: the Vols fall to 13-10 (5-5) with a quick, tough turnaround in hosting Arkansas on Tuesday night. But at least this ragtag group of players, in playing hard and being fun to root for, is giving us more than just an, “Oh well, wait til the freshmen get here.” Today’s performance was another reason to be excited about getting Fulkerson, Pons, and Vescovi back next season too.

Kentucky snaps a four-game losing streak in Knoxville, and moves into a three-way tie with Auburn and LSU at 8-2 in league play. The Vols need wins. I don’t know if they’ll get better in ways that lead to the bracket. But there was still some in encouragement in the way they played today, even in having to let go of a streak we thoroughly enjoyed against Kentucky.

Once upon a time, Kentucky won 11 straight in this series. Jerry Green’s Vols broke that streak in Rupp Arena, and Tennessee won four of seven from 1999-2002. Then Kentucky was at it again, winning eight in a row.

Bruce Pearl’s Vols broke that streak, also in Rupp Arena. Pearl finished his time in Knoxville at 4-9 against the Cats – which was progress considering where we’d been in this rivalry – but that came after a 3-3 split his first three years. The Vols beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville in 2010, but that was Tennessee’s only win in a ten game stretch against the Cats.

Kentucky’s last win in Knoxville during that stretch was in 2012, when the eventual national champions escaped with a three-point win in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. The next year in Knoxville, the Vols unleashed a shocking 30-point beat down on Kentucky. A temporary bad scheduling idea from the league office meant the game wasn’t played in Knoxville in 2014. Kentucky’s almost-undefeated juggernaut won in Knoxville against Donnie Tyndall’s squad in 2015.

And then Rick Barnes arrived. The Vols are 6-4 against Kentucky since then, 4-0 in Knoxville.

The Cats have one victory in Knoxville in the last seven years.

Any win over these guys is always special. But there was a time when any win was an oasis in the desert. There was a time when Kentucky fans filled the upper deck with an expectation of an easy trip to Knoxville. For Tennessee to turn the tide in this rivalry this way, especially in Knoxville, is unheard of in my lifetime. It’s a great season to be a Tennessee Vol.

Every Kentucky squad to roll through here in Barnes’ tenure has been ranked, as you’d expect. Tennessee beat the Cats in Knoxville at #20, #4, #17, and #4. And we’re getting ready to catch them at #15.

They did it by shooting 30-of-34 at the free throw line in 2016. They did it with an all-time J.P. Prince stat line from freshman Grant Williams in 2017 (13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 0 turnovers, and the game-winner). They did it with a 16-3 second half run in 2018, erasing an eight-point halftime deficit. And last year they did it with defense, holding Kentucky to 14 field goals and 31.8% from the floor.

There’s no one way it’s happened for Barnes. Many of the heroes of the last three wins are gone, but the Vols also beat Kentucky with 18 points and 13 rebounds from Armani Moore in 2016, and 25 points from Robert Hubbs in 2015. Barnes has found a way to get the best from everyone, not just the superstars, in this match-up in Knoxville. We will need it to keep this thing going.

There is no March without February

The bracket remains a simple computation: Tennessee needs wins, and the schedule is strong enough that just about any path to 18-19 regular season wins gets you in the conversation. Home wins are easier, and getting Kentucky up on the board certainly looks better. This is the first of two shots the Vols will get at the Cats, with two more against Auburn also on the horizon. This team will have its chances for marquee wins. Might as well start here.

To do that, Tennessee needs to take advantage of both the good news and the bad news in this match-up. First, the good news: for a Tennessee team that struggles so mightily with turnovers, Kentucky doesn’t present much of a challenge on paper. The Cats are 280th nationally in turnovers forced, 305th in steals forced. Like the Vols and plenty of Calipari teams of the past, they like to block shots and let that create the necessary havoc defensively without having to gamble and give up easy buckets.

…with one notable exception: Ashton Hagans, who will almost certainly go against Santiago Vescovi when both are in the game. Hagans is 74th nationally in steals, and Vescovi is currently giving it away on around 30% of his possessions. If Josiah James doesn’t play again, it puts a lot of pressure minutes on Vescovi (and Jordan Bowden, who is typically much better with ball security). Hagans is good enough to disrupt this whole equation by himself. If that happens, the Vols will have a very difficult time getting this done.

On the other end of the floor, Kentucky presents a similar challenge to the Mississippi State squad that decimated Tennessee’s defense in the second half. The Cats like to run three guards with two elite big men: 6’11” Nick Richards and 6’10” E.J. Montgomery. Richards in particular has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points and 10 rebounds over Kentucky’s last six games against a really tough schedule. Auburn did a good job limiting him without fouling, but he shot 14 free throws against Texas Tech and 15 against Mississippi State.

The Vols were the aggressor against Alabama, and as was the case with the home win over South Carolina, the free throw line made all the difference. Kentucky is typically the aggressor: fifth nationally in free throw rate.

Free throw numbers the last 10 games for @Vol_Hoops 5-5

Last 5 losses
UT: 43-of-61
Opp: 95-of-127

Last 5 wins
UT: 90-of-114
Opp: 56-of-85

So, being aggressive, playing inside-out and getting to the free throw line works.

— Vince Ferrara (@VinceSports) February 5, 2020

Watch the lineups in this one, especially if James doesn’t play again. The Vols made most of their hay against Alabama with Uros Plavsic in foul trouble; this is a big-boy spot for him. Maybe we walk away from this one just shaking our heads and saying Kentucky’s bigs were a bad match-up for us. But we’ve seen Pons and Fulkerson hold their own against elite bigs from Washington; we’ve just also seen everyone get carved up by Mississippi State’s. Which way is this one going to go?

Saturday, 1:00 PM, CBS. Can Knoxville come alive again for the Vols against Big Blue Nation? Can Tennessee make win #14 their best one yet?

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Kentucky Wildcats. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

It should come as no surprise at this point that a Tennessee opponent has better shooting numbers than the Vols. Turnovers and offensive rebounds look about even, but Kentucky is better at defensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line.

Summary and Score Prediction

Shooting Blues, the Vols got ’em and probably aren’t getting rid of them tomorrow against Kentucky, but should be kept in the game by their shooting defense. Expect no surprises relating to turnovers for either team, but expect a fair amount of frustration in the form of offensive boards and trips to the free-throw line for Kentucky.

The goals for the Vols:

1. As always, make the most of the advantage on defense because the offense is probably going to need it.
2. Minimize Kentucky’s offensive boards by boxing out and getting the ball after missed shots.
3. That thing you did against Alabama to buck the trend of them living at the line? Do that again against the guys in blue.

KenPom gives Tennessee a somewhat surprising 51% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Kentucky 65. WooGoVols!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, turnovers per game may look even, but turnover percentage is a different story. Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Kentucky is most like Chattanooga and VCU, and they appear to be much better than the Vols.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and Murray State. Not a whole lot better than Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Oof. The best team we’ve played so far this season at getting to the line. But here’s a bit of good news: Alabama averages nearly 29 trips to the line per game, and against Tennessee they only got there 8 times. More of that magic, please.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Ugh. The crystal ball says more frustrating shooting percentages for the Vols tomorrow against the Wildcats. Fortunately, they should have some trouble with Tennessee’s defense, too.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee comes bearing gifts, but apparently Kentucky is too proud to take charity or something. On the other end, the Wildcats do a better job of protecting the ball once they have it, but the Vols are better burglars. Weakness on weakness and meh against meh.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The news here is that Tennessee is all too willing to give up offensive boards, so Kentucky could go on a spree. The Vols are getting better at this, though, so maybe not.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that we could get to the line some but they could spend most of the game there. As I said before, the good news is that this spot forecasted terribly for the Alabama game, and the Vols shot 32 free throws to the Tide’s 8. Again! Again! Again!

Go Vols.