Gameday on Rocky Top

In previous posts, the Vols quarterbacks and running backs have both ranked No. 4 in the SEC. As we’ll see over the next several days, there are three other units that also rank among the Top 4 in the SEC. The wide receiving corps, however, isn’t one of them.

2020 SEC Pass-Catcher Rankings

Additional comments

There’s a lot of symbiosis in college football, and this is especially true among quarterbacks and wide receivers/tight ends. These rankings, for the most part, try to view the respective units without regard to the other positions on which they rely.

When you view them that way, LSU ends up on top, due primarily to the return of Ja’Marr Chase, who’s a monster. He is joined by Terrace Marshall and a bunch of others as well, so the Tigers’ pass-catchers are an able bunch.

Behind LSU, there’s a logjam of teams that look very similar. Alabama gets the edge for No. 2 with the return of Da’Vonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, but A&M and Kentucky aren’t too far behind. Florida’s an interesting study, as the Gators don’t really appear to have a superstar wide receiver, but do have an excellent pass-catcher in tight end Kyle Pitts and a swarm of other productive guys.

Why are the Auburn Tigers No. 5 if they return 1,948 total yards among their pass-catchers (third-most in the league) and tie for fourth in unit recruiting ranking? I have to look this up every time because it looks wonky the way it is presented, but there’s a reason for it. The rankings aren’t just based on returning production, but also on projected production, a number that isn’t (but probably should be) included in the presentation of data. The Auburn receiving corps loses very little from last year, so its returning production numbers are high, but its projected production is low compared to other teams because they weren’t very productive last year. It’s close, though.

The Vols rank a lowly No. 10 on this list. This is, by far, the biggest question in my mind for the team. A little peek behind the curtain, though: As I said, the calculations are largely based on both last year’s production and how much of it returns. There is a flaw in the system, though, in that it fails to account for good, experienced players who, for whatever reason, didn’t play the prior year. Both we and the machines tend to forget those guys. So these numbers don’t know about Tennessee’s Brandon Johnson, who appears to have made a calculated decision to redshirt last season so he could be available this fall when the team needs him more. We’ll see.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

As we said in yesterday’s post ranking the SEC’s quarterback units, Tennessee shows up in the Top 4 in five of eight SEC unit rankings in the 2020 edition of our Gameday on Rocky Top magazine. The Vols QBs were ranked No. 4 yesterday, and today, the running backs also come in at No. 4.

2020 SEC Running Back Rankings

Additional comments

With Tua gone and an outstanding offensive line, this may be the year we see Alabama return to its run game roots, and it will be in good hands not only with Najee Harris, but with a couple of excellent complements as well.

Kentucky’s running game wasn’t the best in the league just because of Lynn Bowden, but also because of Asim Rose, Kavosiey Smoke, and Christopher Rodriguez. And Missouri is likely to lean on Larry Rountree III to help ease the transition to a new-look offense.

Then there’s Tennessee, led by Ty Chandler, Eric Gray, and Tim Jordan. With the way Gray finished last season, he is probably going to push Chandler for some serious playing time, and with their own outstanding offensive line, these guys should be primed for a solid season.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

Two years ago, we added SEC unit rankings to our annual college football preseason magazine for the first time. It was such a hit that we made it a regular feature. Unfortunately, back then it was a bit of a downer for Vols fans, as Tennessee was generally relegated to the “others” list at the bottom.

Not this year. Heading into this fall, the Power T shows up in the Top 4 in five of the eight rankings. Some of those rankings are probably going to come as a bit of a surprise, including the quarterback rankings, for which Tennessee ranks No. 4.

Here’s our complete list of quarterback rankings for the SEC this year, right out of the magazine. We’ll be publishing these over the course of the next couple of weeks, but each post will be live only for a day or few before it’s removed or moved to an in-process VIP area. If you want to see all of them all of the unit rankings at once and at your convenience, you’ll need to order the Gameday on Rocky Top magazine, which, by the way, arrived here yesterday and will ship the day after you place an order. It won’t hit the newsstands until sometime mid- to late-next week.

2020 SEC Quarterback Rankings

Additional comments

As the blurb up there says, with both Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa gone, I really like Kellen Mond among this batch of signal-callers. Kyle Trask in the hands of Dan Mullen is also pretty clearly in the upper tier with Mond.

Then there’s a bunch of experienced guys behind those two, including the Corral/Rhys Plumlee combo at Ole Miss now under the direction of Lane Kiffin and the Tennessee quarterback room, led by Jarrett Guarantano and assisted by a strong recruiting bump in the form of Harrison Bailey. Auburn’s Bo Nix, Alabama’s Mac Jones, and South Carolina’s Ryan Hilinski are all right there as well.

Seven SEC teams basically have unknowns at quarterback this fall. This is especially true for Vanderbilt, who will be back in just a minute. They had to run to Dollar General unexpectedly to get a QB off the shelf because they just ran out.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

Our familiar autumn rhythms will change this year, and much for the better. The Georgia game moves to the second Saturday of November, adding some much-needed balance to Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols’ three most obvious tests since divisional play began now have a month of their own: Florida in September, Alabama in October, Georgia in November. It’s insane to think back to Tennessee’s original SEC East schedule, which saw the Vols open league play with Georgia and Florida back-to-back from 1992-95. Since 1996 the Dawgs have resided around the first or second Saturday of October, often followed by a bye. But in Tennessee’s lengthy journey through the wilderness, any hopes of sneaking into Atlanta’s promised land have been dashed by the season’s halfway point. Only in 2016 have the Vols carried those hopes to November.

No one here is picking Tennessee to win the SEC East. But you might find a lot of us picking Tennessee to be in the conversation in November.

Beyond that break, which will be good for everyone’s mental health, Tennessee gets Alabama right where they want them: the Vols get a bye the week before, while Bama doesn’t get their bye until the week after. The last time that scenario happened: 2015, when Tennessee almost won in Tuscaloosa.

The trade-off, however, is Tennessee’s next two opponents will also be coming off their bye.

So when we look at the rhythm of Tennessee’s 2020 schedule, where are the breaks, and where might things go wrong? If we’re looking for the kind of year we’d all celebrate – 9-3 would be the best regular season since 2007, a 10-3 finish the first time Tennessee didn’t lose four games in a season since 2004 – how are the Vols most likely to get there? In the rhythm of the schedule, which of the big four are they most likely to win, and where are they most likely to get tripped up?

Charlotte – September 5

The 49ers do get Norfolk State the following Saturday, as opposed to Tennessee’s trip to Norman. But memories of Georgia State should alleviate any look-ahead. Advantage: Push

at Oklahoma – September 12

Oklahoma opens with Missouri State, who is coached by…Bobby Petrino! They also have their bye in week three after facing the Vols, which seems strange. Advantage: Push

Furman – September 19

The Paladins head to Knoxville to get that money between Charleston Southern and Western Carolina. This week would be trap game city if the Vols were facing an FBS foe; Furman did make the FCS playoffs last year, but lost in the first round to Austin Peay 42-6. This is too many words on Furman, even for a team that lost to Georgia State last year. Advantage: Push

Florida – September 26

In a few years, Florida’s Septembers will start to look a bit different: they’ve got Utah in the Urban Meyer Bowl in 2022-23, then the series with Miami is renewed the next two years. But for now, it’s the usual: FCS opponent, Kentucky, mid-major, Vols. In this case Florida gets South Alabama the week before Knoxville. Advantage: Push

Missouri – October 3

No one knows exactly what the first year will look like for new coaches in the time of corona, but if Tennessee beats Oklahoma or Florida, the Vols will represent the first opportunity for Eli Drinkwitz to make a statement. Mizzou plays Vanderbilt and South Carolina in weeks two and three, but then gets Eastern Michigan in week four. No matter what Tennessee does against Florida the week before, we’ll be all up in our feelings. The first potential trap game for Tennessee. Advantage: Missouri

at South Carolina – October 10

It’s what you want the week before the bye: playing another team that’s also on its sixth-straight game. South Carolina is in Gainesville the week before. I don’t think Will Muschamp will be in serious jeopardy in week six, but that probably depends on what happens in weeks one through five. Advantage: Push

Alabama – October 24

The Vols get the Tide right where they want them: Tennessee is coming off a bye, Alabama will be playing its eighth straight game before going into one. It’s not murderer’s row for Alabama heading into Knoxville – at Ole Miss, at Arkansas, vs Mississippi State – but with all their heavy lifting in front of them in November, the Vols could spring the trap. Advantage: Tennessee

at Arkansas – October 31

The Hogs are coming off their bye, and Tennessee will have another feeling our feelings moment coming off Alabama. I didn’t include this in my trap game poll on Twitter because I don’t think Arkansas is good enough to qualify, but the placement of this game certainly benefits the home team. Advantage: Arkansas

Kentucky – November 7

Here’s the real trap; the poll I took on Twitter agrees, with UK getting 57% of the vote. Kentucky is also coming off its bye, and the Vols are headed to Athens the following week. If Tennessee beats Florida and doesn’t stub its toe, the Vols will go to Georgia in control of their own destiny for Atlanta, even if they lose to Oklahoma and Alabama. Kentucky hasn’t won in Knoxville since 1984…which maybe makes the trap even more enticing. Do not look ahead. Advantage: Kentucky

at Georgia – November 14

The Bulldogs are in Jacksonville and at South Carolina the two weeks leading into this one. I’m leaving this a push for now, but that largely depends on what South Carolina and Kentucky are like by the first of November. Advantage: Push

Troy – November 21

If Troy is frisky, this could be trap material if the Vols are coming off heartbreak or disaster in Athens. But Troy also gets Appalachian State the following week, which should be the far more meaningful game to their own narrative. Advantage: Push

at Vanderbilt – November 28

An even finish, as Vandy gets Louisiana Tech the week before. Advantage: Push

Pages 92 and 93 of our Gameday on Rocky Top college football preseason magazine includes a Stock Watch that lists all of the SEC teams in order of how they finished in their respective divisions. For each team, it includes (1) a baseline (last year’s record, standing in the division, final ranking in the AP poll, if any, and final SP+ ranking), (2) this year’s returning production numbers, (3) this year’s overall team talent ranking, and (4) a projection for this year’s record and standing in the division. There’s also a BUY, SELL, or HOLD recommendation along with a short blurb explaining the rationale for the recommendation.

What we want to do today is take the whole stock concept just a bit further. I’m going to give each of you a hypothetical $100 worth of stock (because I’m hypothetically rich) in each of the 14 SEC teams. I’m also going to give you a hypothetical $600 cash (because I’m hypothetically generous as well.) Your job is to reallocate your SEC portfolio using those resources. What stock do you want to convert back into cash? What stock and how much of it do you want to buy?

Here’s how I did mine.

Dump

I’m dumping the following teams in the following amounts:

• LSU ($100)
• Georgia ($80)
• South Carolina ($100)
• Vanderbilt ($100)

LSU just has too many new parts in a season where I think continuity is more important than ever. Passing game coordinator Joe Brady and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda are both gone, and the roster returns the least amount of production of any team in the SEC, Joe Burrow chief among them. If the object is to buy low and sell high, you cash out when you think the stock is at an all-time high and likely to go down, and that’s what we have here. They’re not worth last year’s price. I’ll buy them again later.

Georgia’s defense was phenomenal last year and may get even better this year. But I think they have issues on offense, issues that didn’t just manifest this year with all of the departures. It actually started last season and will only be exacerbated by all of the departures this year. It just seemed to me like they missed Jim Chaney more with each game. Now, they have another new offensive coordinator, and when they lost offensive line guru Sam Pittman, four linemen decided to leave early, three to the NFL and one to Tennessee. And that’s before we even get to the fact that they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback in a short offseason. They’re still good, and that defense is so elite that it might actually be able to win most games all by its lonesome, but I just don’t see Georgia’s value going anywhere but down this fall. I’m keeping $20, but converting $80 to cash to spend in other places.

South Carolina and Vanderbilt? The forecast is gloomy for these guys. My official prognostication for the Gamecocks this year is that Will Muschamp, fair or not, is getting fired by his schedule. And you’re not going to lose money holding Vanderbilt stock because they can’t go lower than the basement, but that capital can be put to better use.

That gives me an extra $380 in cash to put a total of $980 in my account. I’ve zeroed out on LSU, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, and I’m down to only $20 in Georgia stock.

Hold

Here’s what I’m going to hold:

• Missouri
• Auburn
• Mississippi State
• Arkansas

With the exception of Auburn, the decision to hold these teams is due primarily to them turning over the entire coaching staff combined with a catastrophe of an offseason. I will note that Drinkwitz did well in only a single season at Appalachian State, and I do like all of the new staff rosters. But until I see some evidence otherwise, I’m still convinced that this is a bad year to be a new team.

So why is Ole Miss, which also has a new staff, not on this list? We’ve seen up close and personal that Lane Kiffin can do well in a first year, and the Rebels return a ton of production.

Auburn? Shrug. I just don’t see them getting any better or worse. But they could also do either. So . . . hold is just a default decision for those guys.

Buy

Alright, so I have $980 to spend on teams I want to buy. Here’s how I’m spending that money:

• Texas A&M ($400)
• Tennessee ($300)
• Florida ($100)
• Alabama ($100)
• Kentucky ($40)
• Ole Miss ($40)

Texas A&M lost five games last year, but they only lost to really good teams. As I noted yesterday, they have more overall coaching and roster continuity than any team in the SEC. And this year, they trade a cross-divisional game with Georgia for one against Vanderbilt and a non-conference game against Clemson for one against Colorado. That’s two games better, just for free. LSU may still get them, but it’s not the automatic loss it was last year. Auburn . . . who knows? And Alabama probably gets them and the SEC West crown, but I think the Aggies have a pretty good shot. So I’m thinking some upside is practically guaranteed, and there’s a pretty good opportunity for a windfall. It’s not quite “all-in,” but it’s “more-in-on-them-than-anyone-else.”

My thought process on Tennessee is similar to that of A&M except without the dramatic and favorable change in schedule. I think the Vols get better even if they don’t get past Florida and/or Georgia, so there’s some upside in value there. I also think that the odds that they actually do get past either or both of Florida and Georgia is greater this year than it’s been for some time. So, I’m buying big on the Vols.

The problem is that Florida is getting better, too, so even though I’m going to have to keep that stock in a sealed container in the garage so it doesn’t smell up the house, I’m getting some extra of the Gators, too.

Alabama is an expensive, well-established stock, but I think it will tick up a bit this fall now that Joe Burrow isn’t in the way.

I just like Kentucky and Ole Miss. Good coaches with decent rosters that probably aren’t going to get into the mix for the divisional crowns but will likely increase in value this year.

Final ledger

Texas A&M	$500
Tennessee	$400
Florida	$200
Alabama	$200
Kentucky	$140
Ole Miss	$140
Missouri	$100
Auburn	$100
Mississippi State	$100
Arkansas	$100
Georgia	$20
South Carolina	$0
Vanderbilt	$0
LSU	$0

The GRT 2020 SEC stock re-allocation podcast

Will and I did our allocations live on the latest GRT podcast. Listen here:

https://soundcloud.com/user-284027139/gameday-on-rocky-top-podcast-episode-165-sec-stock-portfolio-re-allocation-for-2020

Your turn

What about you? What are you buying, selling, and smoking this year?

I don’t know if continuity.com is in use or whether and to what extent the term is being used as a trademark, but I might as well make a grab for it all myself, as I’ve been somewhat obsessed about the issue of continuity these last couple of weeks. I first tackled why and how much returning production matters and then posted the entire list of returning production for 2020, both nationally and in the SEC. And then I started thinking about coaches, and suddenly there were rabbit trails everywhere. The first one I poked my head into concerned head coaching and coordinator continuity in the SEC over the past ten years or so. It was dark down there. Dark and mysterious and fascinating, and it smelled like sweat and blood.

It just means more

Anyway, one of the primary reasons I’m so hyper-focused on coaching and roster continuity this summer is that I think the virus and the quarantine has amplified its importance this year.

Although the data from last week’s post proved only that continuity and change can be either good or bad depending on the personnel, it is true that change always introduces some degree of uncertainty. Uncertainty is often equal parts excitement and terror, and when you put a mic on that thing and redline the faders, it’s time for the popcorn.

There’s a reason teams don’t just gather for the first time an hour before kickoff and go play. They need time to prepare. Common sense suggests that time to prepare would be more important for teams with more uncertainty in the form of less coaching and roster continuity. With COVID-19 sending everyone into isolation just as spring practice was about to begin and teams just now, some four months later, beginning to reassemble, and with so much of the programs’ focus being appropriately diverted to safety issues, it stands to reason that preparation time this season will be at an all-time premium.

Bottom line, this seems like a really bad year to be a new team, and conversely, it seems like a really good year to know the person next to you.

So, which SEC teams will be at more of a disadvantage this fall due to the shortened offseason and the divided attention? And which should have more of an advantage due to continuity? There’s a table with all of the data below for your own perusal, but here are some of our findings.

SEC coaching continuity heading into 2020

First, let’s take a quick look at coaching continuity in the SEC just for this fall, as I somehow failed to hit that with last week’s barrage of continuity posts.

Five SEC teams have complete continuity with respect to their head coaching and coordinator positions this year: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and, somewhat surprisingly, Alabama, which hasn’t had complete continuity since Lane Kiffin and Jeremy Pruitt were together in Crimson in 2015.

On the flip side, three programs have turned over all three positions: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Arkansas.

In the middle, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn are all breaking in new offensive coordinators, and Vanderbilt and Missouri have each swapped out two of three pieces. The Commodores retained head coach Derek Mason but replaced both coordinators, and Missouri replaced its head coach and offensive coordinator (it’s the same guy), but retained defensive coordinator Ryan Walters from Barry Odom’s staff.

LSU is a bit of a unique situation. Ed Orgeron remains, and so does offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger, but defensive coordinator Bo Pelini replaces Dave Aranda, and perhaps most importantly, passing game coordinator Joe Brady has moved on.

SEC Teams with the most roster and coaching continuity heading into 2020

So, if there’s an advantage to overall continuity heading into this weird college football season, which teams will benefit and which will suffer?

First on the list of teams that might benefit is Texas A&M. The Aggies rank first in overall returning production on the field and are one of the teams with no churn in the head coach or coordinator positions. Jimbo Fisher is back with coordinators Darryll Dickey (although co-OC Jay Graham is now at Tennessee) and Mike Elko. Plus, they return 100% of last year’s passing yards, 74% of their rushing yards, 80% of their offensive line starts, and most of their defense as well. These guys are not building something new from scratch. They had to press pause like everyone else, but all they have to do to get back up to speed is to hit the play button again.

Right behind the Aggies in this category are Kentucky and Tennessee, who both also return a ton of production, their head coaches, and both coordinators.

Teams in trouble if continuity matters more this fall include Mississippi State, LSU, and Missouri. These guys are still doing meet-and-greets and icebreakers.

Here’s a list of all of the SEC teams with their respective roster and coaching continuity data for you to analyze yourself. What do you see?